GrainCorp shares fall after surprise $30 million cost increase

GrainCorp Ltd (ASX: GNC) shares are back in focus on Thursday after the company released a new trading update.

The agribusiness stock is down 3.03% to $6.73 at the time of writing.

That comes despite GrainCorp keeping its FY26 earnings guidance unchanged.

But there was one part of the update that investors clearly didn’t like.

What’s changed?

GrainCorp said its transformation program is still delivering savings, with around $12 million of benefits expected in FY26.

That’s ahead of its previous target, while the longer-term goal of adding $20 million to $30 million to through-the-cycle EBITDA by the end of FY28 remains unchanged.

However, the technology side of the program has been delayed.

The first release, which covers the Nutrition and Energy business, is now expected to go live in the second quarter of 2027. It had previously been scheduled for the second half of 2026.

GrainCorp said the extra time would “reduce implementation risk”, but it comes with a price.

FY27 spending on ‘Release 1’ is now expected to be around $30 million to $35 million, an increase of roughly $30 million from the previous estimate.

80 roles affected

GrainCorp also used the update to announce changes to its Agribusiness operating model.

The company said it is simplifying the way the business operates across its east coast network and corporate support teams, with around 80 roles affected.

GrainCorp expects to recognise around $5 million in restructuring costs in FY26.

Despite those extra costs, the company has kept its FY26 earnings guidance unchanged.

Underlying EBITDA is still expected to come in around the midpoint of its $200 million to $240 million range.

Underlying NPAT is forecast between $20 million and $50 million, including the $5 million restructuring cost.

Crop outlook gives investors some good news

The crop outlook was one positive in Thursday’s update.

GrainCorp said growing conditions remain supportive across NSW and Victoria, although conditions have been drier in Queensland.

Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) now expects the east coast winter crop to reach 26.6 million tonnes, around 12% higher than its previous forecast.

GrainCorp also said higher global commodity prices could create more export opportunities during the year.

That should provide some support as the company heads into the upcoming harvest.

Foolish takeaway

GrainCorp shares had rallied strongly before today, climbing around 23% over the past month. They are still down roughly 6% in 2026 and 22% over 12 months.

Before today’s announcement, TipRanks showed 3 buy ratings and 2 holds, with an average price target of $6.85.

That’s only slightly above the current share price, although those targets could change after brokers work through today’s update.

GrainCorp reports its full-year results on 12 November.

The post GrainCorp shares fall after surprise $30 million cost increase appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.