Xero shares crash to a 7-year low after a brutal sell-off

You have to go all the way back to June 2019 to find the last time Xero Ltd (ASX: XRO) shares were trading below the $60 mark.

Xero finished Monday at $60.08 after dropping another 4.30%, having touched an intraday low of $59.65.

The last time Xero closed below $60 was 28 June 2019, when the shares finished at $59.94.

That’s pretty remarkable when you consider Xero was trading as high as $196.52 in late June last year.

The selling has been relentless recently as well.

Xero shares are now down almost 30% over the past month and around 47% since the start of 2026.

September has been brutal

What makes the latest slide a little harder to pin down is that Xero hasn’t released any bad news to the market.

There has been no profit warning, earnings downgrade or major operational update behind the recent selling.

Instead, a few things seem to be working against the stock at the same time.

ASX tech shares had another tough session on Monday as expectations for another RBA rate rise increased.

Australian 10-year bond yields were also sitting around 5.3%, which hasn’t helped high-growth tech stocks either.

Xero has also been caught in the software sell-off as investors question what AI could mean for the sector over the next few years.

And then there’s Melio.

The acquisition pushed Xero further into US payments, while bringing extra costs and lower-margin revenue into the business as well.

This isn’t the same Xero as 2019

That’s what makes the current share price hard to ignore.

Xero may be back around its 2019 share price, but the business is now much larger.

In FY26, operating revenue rose 31% to NZ$2.75 billion, while adjusted EBITDA increased 18% to NZ$757.4 million.

Free cash flow reached NZ$554 million, while Xero added another 506,000 customers to finish the year with 4.92 million.

The numbers weren’t all heading in the right direction though.

Net profit fell 27% to NZ$167.4 million, while gross margin dropped from 89% to 83.9% as Melio started contributing to the group.

Xero has also flagged up to NZ$55 million of additional US brand spending during FY27.

Analysts value Xero much higher

The other thing worth watching is just how far Xero has fallen below some analyst valuations.

Morningstar has a fair value estimate of $97.87, although it also gives the stock a high uncertainty rating.

TipRanks shows Citi with a $113.60 price target, while RBC Capital has a more conservative target of $85.

Even the lowest of those figures is still well above yesterday’s close of $60.08.

That doesn’t mean Xero shares can’t keep falling, particularly after the way they’ve traded through September.

But it shows just how quickly the market has changed its view of the stock.

The post Xero shares crash to a 7-year low after a brutal sell-off appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Xero. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.