Down 20%: Is the Wesfarmers share price a top buy?

The Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES) share price has come back sharply from its highs.

At around $75.86 on Wednesday, the shares are now roughly 20% below their 52-week peak.

That is a meaningful pullback for one of the ASX’s best-known blue chips. But has it gone far enough to create a top buying opportunity?

Here is how I see it.

Why I like Wesfarmers

Wesfarmers owns a collection of businesses that already have strong positions in their respective markets.

Bunnings remains the standout for me. Its scale, brand strength, and dominant position in home improvement give Wesfarmers a business that would be extremely difficult to replicate.

Kmart has also become an increasingly important part of the group, with its value-focused offering giving consumers a reason to keep shopping even when household budgets are under pressure.

Officeworks adds another established retail business, while Wesfarmers also has exposure to industrial and other operations.

That mix means the company is not relying on a single product or customer group to drive earnings.

I also like the way Wesfarmers has approached capital allocation over many years. Management has shown a willingness to invest where it sees attractive returns and move away from businesses where the opportunity becomes less compelling.

For a long-term investor, I think that discipline is a major part of what makes Wesfarmers stand out.

The earnings outlook still looks healthy

The recent weakness in the Wesfarmers share price would concern me more if analysts were also expecting profits to fall.

That is not currently the case. Wesfarmers generated earnings per share (EPS) of $2.53 in FY26. Consensus forecasts indicate EPS could increase to $2.72 in FY27, $2.90 in FY28, and $3.11 in FY29.

By FY29, earnings would be around 23% above the FY26 level, which would give the business a reasonable base from which to grow.

The dividend is also expected to move higher alongside earnings. Consensus estimates point to dividends per share of $2.34 in FY27, $2.49 in FY28, and $2.71 in FY29.

For me, that adds another layer to the investment case. Wesfarmers is not just relying on share price appreciation to generate returns.

Is the valuation attractive enough?

This is where I would keep expectations sensible. At $75.86, Wesfarmers is trading on a P/E ratio of around 28 times estimated FY27 earnings.

That is still a premium valuation, so I would not describe the shares as cheap simply because they have fallen 20%.

But the picture improves as earnings grow. By FY29, today’s price would represent roughly 24 times forecast earnings.

I think that is easier to justify for a business with the quality of Bunnings, the momentum of Kmart, and a strong long-term record of capital allocation.

Foolish takeaway

I think Wesfarmers is becoming a much easier share to buy at around $76.

The valuation still asks investors to pay for quality, so I would not expect a bargain-style return simply because the shares are 20% below their high.

But I think the combination of strong businesses, steady earnings growth, and rising dividends makes today’s price look increasingly reasonable.

For me, that is enough to put Wesfarmers back near the top of my ASX buy list.

The post Down 20%: Is the Wesfarmers share price a top buy? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has positions in Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.