Is BHP the best ASX mining share to buy for the next 5 years?

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) is already one of the biggest mining shares in the world.

But what could the business look like in five years?

Its commodity mix is changing, major growth projects are progressing, and some of its biggest markets could look quite different by 2031.

So, is BHP the ASX mining share I would want to own for that journey?

Copper could become even more important

The biggest reason I am positive about BHP’s next five years is copper.

It has already become a much larger part of the business. In FY26, copper contributed more than half of BHP’s underlying EBITDA for the first time, while the company produced around 2 million tonnes for the second consecutive year.

I think the longer-term opportunity is even more compelling. Electrification, renewable energy, data centres, and AI infrastructure all require enormous amounts of copper. BHP expects global demand to rise from around 34 million tonnes a year today to more than 50 million tonnes by 2050.

The company is positioning itself accordingly. It has growth options across Chile, South Australia, Argentina, and the United States, with management believing its copper pipeline could lift attributable production by around 40% by FY35.

Not all of that will arrive within five years, but I think the direction is clear. BHP is becoming increasingly geared towards a commodity that could face strong structural demand.

Iron ore still has an important job

I would not overlook iron ore simply because copper is getting more attention.

BHP’s Western Australian iron ore operations remain a major source of cash, and FY26 delivered record production and shipments. The business also retains its position as one of the lowest-cost major producers globally.

That is important because iron ore can help fund the next phase of growth.

China’s property sector remains a risk, but BHP still expects Chinese steel production to stay around 1 billion tonnes annually through the remainder of this decade, while India is becoming increasingly important as infrastructure and industrial investment expand.

In my opinion, iron ore does not need to be the growth engine. It can remain the dependable cash generator behind the rest of the portfolio.

A new commodity joins the mix

The next five years should also see potash become meaningful. BHP’s Jansen project in Canada is on track for first production in mid-2027. Stage 1 is already well advanced, while Stage 2 is designed to eventually help take the combined output to around 8.5 million tonnes a year.

Potash gives BHP exposure to agriculture and food production, which brings a different demand driver from metals such as copper and iron ore.

I think that diversification could become increasingly valuable as Jansen ramps up.

What could go wrong?

BHP is still a commodity producer, so prices will have a major influence on returns.

A sharp fall in copper or iron ore prices could outweigh operational progress, while large projects such as Jansen and future copper developments bring execution and cost risks.

I would also expect the dividend to move around with the cycle. BHP can offer a good dividend yield at times, but I would not buy it expecting a perfectly smooth income stream.

Foolish takeaway

For me, BHP would be the ASX mining share I would most want to own over the next five years.

Iron ore should continue providing substantial cash flow, copper is becoming a much bigger part of the growth story, and potash adds another long-term opportunity.

There will be commodity cycles along the way, but I think BHP’s portfolio is moving in the right direction for the world investors are likely to face in 2031.

The post Is BHP the best ASX mining share to buy for the next 5 years? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.