BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares have fallen around 1% in Wednesday lunchtime trade.
At the time of writing, the shares are changing hands for $60.92 a piece. They’re now up 33% for the year to date and 42% higher than 12 months ago.
BHP earnt most of its annual gains through October 2025 to late-August this year, when it peaked at an all-time high of $67.67 a piece. But since then, the ASX mining shares have tumbled lower, down around 10% to the time of writing.
Now many are questioning whether the mining giant’s shares can return to, or even surpass, the all-time high recorded two months ago.
Or is the rally now over?
Here’s what the experts think.
Are BHP shares a buy, sell, or hold?
Brokers and analysts are mostly neutral on the outlook for the miner’s shares over the next 12 months.
Market Index data shows the majority have a hold rating on BHP, and the $61.50 average target price implies a 1% upside, at the time of writing.
The data on TradingView is similar. The majority (12 out of 21) have a hold rating on the shares, although another six rate BHP as a strong buy, and three rate the shares a sell/strong sell.
The average $62.45 target price implies a 3% upside at the time of writing.
Fairmont Equities thinks that this mining giant could be an ASX 200 share to buy. The broker said it thinks commodities markets are still only in the early stages of a bull run, leaving BHP’s share price in a prime position to move higher. It said that the company should also benefit from constrained global supplies of copper.
Morgan Stanley also recently renewed its buy rating on BHP shares, with a 12-month price target of $68.
Elsewhere, Red Leaf Securities has a hold rating on the mining shares. The broker warns that a softer global growth outlook and uncertainty surrounding Chinese commodity demand limits the case for aggressively buying the stock right now.
On the flip side, Catapult Wealth is much more bearish, with a sell rating on BHP shares. The broker said that the global miner delivered a strong FY26 result, but that it still sees an issue with its share price. After this year’s rally, there are concerns that BHP has now run too far ahead of true value.
What could influence the miner’s share price over the next 12 months?
I think there is still some potential ahead for BHP shares.
The company has recently faced headwinds from broad market weakness, higher oil prices, and ongoing disruptions to some of its operations.
If we see a turnaround in any, or all, of these headwinds, then we could see BHP shares run higher.
Last month, BHP was forced to suspend mining activities at its Escondida copper mine in Chile after a fatal accident. Under Chilean mining regulations, operations cannot restart following a fatal accident until safety inspectors have confirmed that conditions are safe. There is no indication when production might resume, but when it does, I expect a jump in investor interest.
Meanwhile, higher oil prices and inflation concerns are creating broad market weakness. If conflict in the Middle East reaches some sort of resolution, and oil supply flows well through the region, it’ll certainly have a positive impact on BHP shares.
The post Up 42% in a year. How much higher can BHP shares go? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.
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Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has positions in BHP Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.