ASX mining shares have had a spectacular run due to rapidly rising commodity prices in CY25 and CY26.
In FY26, the ASX 200 materials sector, which is dominated by the miners, shot the lights out for investors.
The S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index (ASX: XMJ) soared 47% and produced total returns, including dividends, of 52%.
That compares to a 3% rise and total returns of 7% for the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO).
A staggering outperformance of 7:1.
The S&P/ASX 300 Metals & Mining Index (ASX: XMM), which includes an extra 100 mineral explorers, did even better. Â
ASX 300 mining shares rose 53%, and delivered total returns of 59% in FY26.
These explosive returns followed staggering increases in many commodity prices.
Commodity price surge
In FY26, the best price growth among commodities relevant to Australian mining was lithium spodumene, soaring 278%.
Lithium is a key component in rechargeable batteries for electric vehicles (EVs), e-bikes, smartphones, and energy storage systems.
In CY25, silver experienced the best price growth, up 147%.
Silver is an industrial metal used in solar panels, EVs, tech devices, and data centres due to its superior conductivity to copper.
The long-term tailwinds of decarbonisation and the artificial intelligence (AI) build-out contributed to mining’s outperformance in FY26.
The ongoing structural change in central banks purchasing gold to diversify their reserves away from US treasuries also played a role.
Experts say we’re in a new mining boom that will be different to the 2000s because it will be led by critical minerals, not iron ore.
While these long-term tailwinds will remain for decades, that doesn’t automatically translate to vertical commodity price growth.
This is made clear in the 5-year outlook for commodities just published by the Federal Department of Industry, Science, and Resources.
Commodity price predictions FY27
For the period FY26 to FY31, the government reckons FY27 is going to be the strongest year for many commodity prices.
According to the resources department’s latest Resources and Energy Quarterly:
Commodity prices are expected to peak in 2026â27 and then drift lower.
This is important information for ASX investors because commodity prices directly impact miners’ earnings, and thus, their share prices.
The report also looks at energy commodity prices.
In CY26, Brent crude oil, gas, and coal prices have surged due to the US-Iran conflict and Middle East supply disruptions.
This contributed to energy ranking second (behind materials) among the 11 ASX 200 market sectors for total returns in FY26.
The S&P/ASX 200 Energy Index (ASX: XEJ) increased 9.37% and produced total returns of 14.51%.
The energy sector has the same forecasted commodity price trend.
For the period FY26 to FY31, the government expects four out of five energy commodity prices to peak in FY27.
This will have a direct impact on ASX energy shares.
Let’s take a look at the forecasts.
Five-year outlook
The report outlines the Federal Government’s predictions for average annual commodity prices in FY27 and FY31.
There is a realised nominal price for FY26, a forecast price for FY27, and a projected price for FY31.
As you’ll see, over the next 5-year period, seven of the following 10 commodity prices are expected to peak in FY27.
Metals and minerals commodity prices
Iron ore price (62% fe)
FY26: US$92 per tonne
FY27: US$83 per tonne
FY31: US$72 per tonne
ASX iron ore mining shares: BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP), Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG), Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO)
Copper price
FY26: US$11,767 per tonne
FY27: US$13,754 per tonne
FY31: US$12,786 per tonne
ASX copper mining shares: Sandfire Resources Ltd (ASX: SFR), BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP), Capstone Copper Corp CDI (ASX: CSC)
Lithium price (6% spodumene concentrate)
FY26: US$1,532 per tonne
FY27: US$2,499 per tonne
FY31: US$1,684 per tonne
ASX lithium mining shares: PLS Group Ltd (ASX: PLS), Liontown Resources Ltd (ASX: LTR), Elevra Lithium Ltd (ASX: ELV)
Gold price
FY26: US$4,268 per ounce
FY27: US$4,534 per ounce
FY31: US$4,149 per ounce
ASX gold mining shares: Newmont CDI (ASX: NEM), Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN), Minerals 260 Ltd (ASX: MI6)
Nickel prices
FY26: US$16,348 per tonne
FY27: US$17,226 per tonne
FY31: US$18,473 per tonne
ASX nickel shares: IGO Ltd (ASX: IGO), Nickel Industries Ltd (ASX: NIC)
Energy commodity prices
Brent crude oil price
FY26: US$79 per barrel
FY27: US$87 per barrel
FY31: US$68 per barrel
ASX oil shares: Ampol Ltd (ASX: ALD), Viva Energy Ltd (ASX: VEA)
LNG prices
FY26: A$13 per gigajoule
FY27: A$16 per gigajoule
FY31: A$11 per gigajoule
ASX energy shares: Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS), Santos Ltd (ASX: STO)
Metallurgical coal price
FY26: US$213 per tonne
FY27: US$233 per tonne
FY31: US$225 per tonne
ASX met coal shares: Whitehaven Coal Ltd (ASX: WHC), BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP)
Thermal coal price
FY26: US$117 per tonne
FY27: US$128 per tonne
FY31: US$121 per tonne
ASX thermal coal producers: New Hope Corporation Ltd (ASX: NHC), Yancoal Australia Ltd (ASX: YAL)
Uranium price
FY26: US$82 per pound
FY27: US$93 per pound
FY31: US$113 per pound
ASX uranium shares: Paladin Energy Ltd (ASX: PDN), Boss Energy Ltd (ASX: BOE), Deep Yellow Ltd (ASX: DYL)
The post Own ASX mining shares? Official forecasts show commodity prices peaking in FY27 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.
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- Woodside, New Hope, Flight Centre shares: Buy, hold, or sell?
Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.