Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) shares have dipped into the red in Wednesday afternoon trade.

The oil and gas producer’s shares are down around 0.2% and changing hands at $7.70 at the time of writing.

But today’s small dip has barely dented gains made over the past week.

Santos shares tumbled 9% through June and into the first week of July. But have now rebounded around 8% over the past week and are back to levels seen during a rally in mid-March when escalating conflict in the Middle East raised concerns about global oil supply.

The shares are now up around 25% year to date, but are still roughly 1% below the trading levels seen this time last year.

Why are Santos shares in the spotlight this week?

The oil and gas major’s shares are the talk of the town after the US-Iran ceasefire broke down last week, and war escalated again between the two nations.

Santos shares gradually cooled through June and into July, off the back of expectations that the conflict was winding down. When the original peace deal broke in June, Santos fell 8% in a single session. 

But a stark reversal over the past week has reinvigorated the war risk tailwinds that saw the company’s shares fly higher earlier this year. 

Escalating conflict has quickly caused a spike in oil prices, which in turn acts as a strong tailwind for Santos shares.

Trading Economics data shows that the price of WTI crude oil has now spiked over US$80 per barrel.

“Oil prices have rallied this week as renewed tensions between Washington and Tehran heightened supply concerns, adding fresh uncertainty after Persian Gulf producers increased exports following the signing of the interim peace agreement,” Trading Economics said.

The good news for Santos is that the business can continue to perform well regardless of whether geopolitical uncertainty is high or low.

A few company-specific price drivers, including a rise in production and improved cash flow, have also helped Santos shares climb higher.

In late April, Santos posted its March quarter update, where it revealed a 1% increase in production and a 3% rise in sales revenue versus the prior quarter. 

Its free cash flow from operations of US$383 million was in line with Q4 2025, and management reaffirmed its full-year 2026 production and cost guidance.

The company also recently confirmed it has now hit continuous production at its Pikka oil project in Alaska. The project is now producing about 20,000 barrels of oil per day, which will ramp up to 80,000 during the third quarter of 2026.

Are Santos shares a buy, sell, or hold now?

The experts are very bullish about the outlook for Santos this year.

Market Index data shows that all brokers agree on a buy rating on Santos shares. The average $8.70 target price implies a potential 13% upside at the time of writing. 

Macquarie is one broker that has an optimistic outlook on Santos. It said that the company has had solid sequential growth in its second-quarter production and that it currently sees the producer tracking to the lower end of its CY26 guidance range. The team has a buy rating and a $9 target price on the shares. 

The post Why is everyone talking about Santos shares this week? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

BHP Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares are enjoying a strong session on Wednesday.

In early afternoon trade, BHP shares are up 4% to $61.12. They’re comfortably outperforming the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO), which is up 0.4%.

The gains continue a recent rebound for the mining heavyweight. BHP shares have climbed around 6% over the past five trading days, though they remain down roughly 6% over the past month.

Zooming out, however, the picture looks much brighter. BHP shares have rallied about 34% since the start of the year and are up approximately 54% over the past 12 months. By comparison, the ASX 200 has gained around 3% over the same period.

So, what’s driving BHP’s sharp share price jump today?

A sector-wide rally lifts BHP

Unlike some large moves in the past, Wednesday’s rally doesn’t appear to be linked to a major company announcement.

Instead, BHP is benefiting from renewed investor appetite for mining stocks as sentiment towards the resources sector improves. The S&P/ASX 200 Resources Index (ASX: XJR) was up 1.6% around midday.

After a period of weakness driven by concerns over global growth, commodity demand, and geopolitical uncertainty, investors have rotated back into diversified miners. BHP shares have emerged as one of the biggest beneficiaries.

Copper remains the key long-term story

While iron ore remains BHP’s largest earnings driver, investors are increasingly valuing the company as a global copper producer.

The miner has spent several years repositioning its portfolio towards commodities expected to benefit from long-term electrification trends, including copper through assets such as Escondida, Olympic Dam, and the recently acquired OZ Minerals business.

That shift means BHP is often viewed as one of the ASX’s premier large-cap copper exposures.

Interestingly, however, today’s rally wasn’t sparked by a surge in copper prices. Benchmark copper prices were little changed overnight, slipping around 0.2%, and remain modestly lower than they were a month ago.

Even so, prices are still well above year-ago levels. This reflects a constructive long-term outlook supported by growing demand from artificial intelligence infrastructure, renewable energy projects, and electric vehicles.

Looking ahead

With no major company news driving Wednesday’s gains, the rally appears to reflect improving sentiment towards the mining sector rather than a fundamental change in BHP’s outlook.

Investors will now turn their attention to BHP’s upcoming quarterly operational update next month. This should provide fresh insight into production across its iron ore and copper operations.

In the meantime, movements in copper and iron ore prices, as well as any signs of further economic stimulus from China, are likely to remain the biggest drivers of BHP shares.

For long-term investors, today’s rally also highlights an important shift in the investment case.

BHP remains the world’s largest-listed iron ore miner. But its growing exposure to copper means the company’s fortunes are becoming increasingly tied to a metal many analysts expect will play a central role in the global energy transition.

The post Why are BHP shares surging 4% today despite a flat copper price? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has positions in BHP Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE) shares are climbing higher into the green in morning trade on Wednesday. 

At the time of writing, the shares are up around 0.5% and changing hands for $4.72 a piece.

The latest increase represents around a 39% rebound from a 12-year low recorded in late-March. It’s certainly a step in the right direction, but there is still some way before Treasury Wine Estates can recover losses shed through 2025.

For the year to date, the shares are down around 11% and are 41% lower than this time last year.

Why are Treasury Wine Estates shares rebounding?

After hitting the lowest trading value in over a decade in late-March, Treasury Wine Estates shares finally started rebounding after news that the company had begun trading below what its assets are worth. 

The update encouraged bargain-hunting investors to step in while the shares were trading below fair value.

The rebound picked up pace in late-April when the company announced it is transitioning to a new regional operating model to help improve efficiency.

The move is part of TWE Ascent, Treasury Wine’s global transformation program, which is intended to address the headwinds of recent years and position the business for sustainable growth.

The ASX 200 wine stock will switch to the new regional operating model as of the 1st of October. This will see the company operate four regional divisions. These include, the Americas, ANZ (Australia and New Zealand) combined with Europe, Greater China, and the emerging markets (Rest of Asia, Middle East, and Africa).

Treasury Wine Estates shares climbed even higher in early June. The increase followed an investor day update where the company unveiled its latest turnaround strategy. The transformation plan is expected to help simplify the business and help restore earnings growth.

Key updates included a sharper focus on Treasury Wine’s strongest brands, a review of its Americas business, and plans to target $100 million per year in cost reductions. These cost reductions are expected to be fully realised by FY29.

Management also confirmed FY26 EBITS guidance in the range of $480 million to $490 million.

For FY27, management then expects EBITS to be at least equivalent to FY26 while the company continues to rebalance customer inventory levels in China and the United States.

Investors have been thrilled with the company’s developments over the past three months. The renewed confidence has helped push the shares higher and higher.

What do brokers tip next? Can the shares keep climbing higher?

If broker sentiment is anything to go by, we could see a lot more from Treasury Wine Estates shares this year.

Market Index shows a buy consensus for the shares. And the average $5.20 target price implies a potential 11% upside, at the time of writing.

TradingView data shows that some are even more bullish. Out of 15 analysts, seven have a buy or strong buy rating. Another eight rate the ASX wine stock as a hold.

The average $5.34 target price implies a potential 15% upside ahead, at the time of writing. Meanwhile, the maximum $6.50 target price implies that the shares have the potential to jump another 40% higher over the next 12 months.

The post Treasury Wine Estates shares rebound 39% from 12-year low: Can they keep going? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Treasury Wine Estates. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Treasury Wine Estates. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.