On Thursday, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) had a poor session and dropped deep into the red.  The benchmark index fell 0.7% to 8,748.7 points.

Will the market be able to bounce back from this on Friday and end the week on a high? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to rise

The Australian share market looks set to rise on Friday despite a mixed night of trade in the United States. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open 14 points or 0.15% higher this morning. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones was up 0.15%, but the S&P 500 was down slightly and the Nasdaq fell 0.45%.

Oil prices recover

ASX 200 energy shares Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) could have a decent finish to the week after oil prices recovered overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is up 2% to US$71.74 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is up 1.7% to US$75.01 a barrel. This follows reports of an attack on a cargo vessel by Iran.

Buy Minerals 260 shares

Bell Potter thinks Minerals 260 Ltd (ASX: MI6) shares are undervalued and could offer major upside. This morning, the broker has retained its speculative buy rating and $1.35 price target on the ASX gold stock. Commenting on the gold developer, the broker said: “MI6 offers gold exposure via the 4.5Moz Bullabulling Resource, valuation uplift through discovery success, project advancement and de-risking as the BGP progresses towards production. It holds ~$250m cash, sufficient to fund to Final Investment Decision (FID) in early CY27, long-lead items and early site works. We retain our $1.35/sh Valuation and Speculative Buy recommendation.”

Gold price rises

ASX 200 gold shares Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) and Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) could have a good finish to the week after the gold price rose overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is up 0.8% to US$4,040.1 an ounce. The release of US inflation data eased rate hike fears and gave the precious metal a boost.

Buy Nickel Industries shares

Nickel Industries Ltd (ASX: NIC) shares could be good value according to analysts at Bell Potter. This morning, the broker has retained its buy rating with an improved price target of $1.55 (from $1.45). It commented: “NIC offers nickel price leverage and diversified margin exposure across an integrated value chain. The HPAL expansion transactions will further balance NIC’s earnings into downstream higher-margin operations and preserve earnings through the nickel price cycle. We lift our Target Price 7% to $1.55/sh and retain our Buy rating.”

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Why Judo Capital, Minerals 260, Santos, and Worley shares are dropping today

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Woodside Energy Group Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Picking three popular ASX blue chip shares is the easy part of this exercise.

The harder question is whether Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA), Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG), and CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) can still justify their place in a portfolio two decades from now, not just today.

Each faces a genuine test over that horizon, and each currently looks like it can pass it, for different reasons.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia: the test is whether dominance survives disruption

CBA’s 20-year test is not whether it remains Australia’s largest bank. It has a good chance of it.

The real test is whether a dominant, capital-intensive incumbent can keep fending off digital disruption for two more decades, as it has for the past two.

In the first half of FY2026, CBA delivered a statutory net profit of $5.41 billion, up 5% on the prior corresponding period. Furthermore, CBA was able to continue ramping up technology spending to defend its lead.

However, at approximately 26 times forward earnings, CBA already prices in a significant amount of that continued dominance.

The bull case rests on scale, trust, and a banking app used by more Australians than any rivals. These advantages compound slowly but have proven durable across multiple banking cycles already.

Macquarie Group: the test is whether a trading culture can keep reinventing itself

Macquarie’s 20-year test is different again.

Unlike a retail bank, Macquarie has already reinvented its business model multiple times across three decades, moving from a niche investment bank into one of the world’s largest infrastructure and asset managers.

Morgans was impressed with Macquarie’s FY2026 performance. The broker noted profit was up strongly on the prior year and ahead of consensus estimates. However, the broker flagged that, following recent share price strength, Macquarie shares are close to being fully valued today.

Yet for long-term holders, the case for Macquarie over two decades is less about today’s price and more about betting on a management culture that has consistently found its next growth engine before the previous one matured. These intrinsic competitive advantages are harder to predict than a bank’s mortgage book, but ones Macquarie has repeatedly delivered on.

CSL: the test is whether execution catches up to the moat

CSL’s 20-year test is the most interesting of the three. This is because the moat is not in question, but the recent execution has been.

Morgans retains a buy rating on CSL with a price target of $147.59, arguing the issues behind the FY2026 guidance downgrade, including China albumin price pressure and US immunoglobulin channel inventory normalisation, are executional rather than structural.

CSL’s barriers to entry in plasma collection and biotherapeutics remain extremely high, built over more than a century of operating history. That durability is why brokers have remained broadly constructive even amid a 60% decline from its all-time high.

CSL shares now trade on roughly 28 times earnings, expensive but insignificant over a 20-year time horizon.

The 20-year case for CSL is essentially a bet that an irreplaceable global franchise outlasts a difficult few years of execution. This is the kind of mis-pricing that long-term holders are supposed to be able to look through.

Why the 20-year framing changes the analysis for these ASX shares

Most “buy and hold” investors default to a five-year horizon. This is where current earnings momentum and broker price targets carry most of the weight.

Stretching that horizon to 20 years shifts the question from “what will this stock do next year” to “does the underlying moat survive technological, competitive, and cyclical change for two decades.”

CBA’s moat is threatened by digital disruption. Macquarie’s moat depends on a culture of reinvention rather than a single fixed advantage. CSL’s moat is arguably the strongest of the three on paper, but is currently being tested by execution rather than competition.

Foolish takeaway for these ASX shares

CBA, Macquarie, and CSL each represent a different kind of 20-year bet.

CBA is a bet that scale and trust keep beating disruption. Macquarie is a bet that a culture of reinvention will continue to work as well in 2046 as it has since the 1990s. CSL is a bet that an already-proven moat outlasts a rough few years of execution.

With strong track records on reinforcing their respective competitive advantages, these three blue-chip ASX shares are positioned to continue delivering well into the future.

The post 3 ASX blue chip shares to buy and hold for the next 20 years appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• 3 quality ASX shares I’d buy (that aren’t CBA or Wesfarmers)

Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL and Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL and Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

WiseTech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC) shares have been smashed.

The logistics software company is trading around $31.39, down almost 75% from its 52-week high of $121.31.

That is a huge fall for a company that was once one of the ASX’s most highly rated technology shares. It also raises a fair question: has the market gone too far?

I think it has.

The valuation has changed dramatically

WiseTech was once priced for a lot of success.

That made the shares vulnerable when sentiment turned. A high-growth stock can fall hard when investors become more cautious, and WiseTech has certainly felt that pressure.

But the current valuation now looks really interesting to me.

According to CommSec, consensus estimates are for earnings per share of 92.8 cents in FY26, $1.45 in FY27, and $2.19 in FY28.

At the current share price, that puts WiseTech on a price-to-earnings ratio of around 34 times FY26 earnings, 22 times FY27 earnings, and just over 14 times FY28 earnings.

That is the part that catches my attention.

A FY26 multiple in the 30s still requires growth. But if WiseTech gets anywhere near the FY28 consensus forecast, the valuation starts to look unusually low for a global software business with its market position.

A powerful role in global trade

The reason I still like WiseTech is the problem it solves.

Global trade is full of friction. Goods move through ports, warehouses, customs systems, carriers, freight forwarders, importers, exporters, and regulators. Every shipment can involve documents, time zones, compliance checks, pricing, tracking, and a long chain of handovers.

That is exactly the kind of environment where good software can become valuable.

WiseTech’s CargoWise platform helps logistics companies run more of that complexity through one system. The more deeply software is embedded in daily operations, the harder it can become to replace.

I also like the ambition of the company. WiseTech wants to be the operating system for global trade and logistics. That is a big goal, but it is also the kind of market where scale, product depth, compliance capability, and integration can matter enormously.

The company says it serves more than 22,000 logistics companies and other industry participants across 193 countries. It also notes that with the acquisition of e2open, its network has expanded to more than 500,000 connected enterprises across manufacturing, logistics, channels, and distribution.

That gives the business a large base from which to keep building.

What about the founder allegations?

There are also external matters investors will be aware of.

WiseTech recently responded to media commentary alleging an investigation into founder and Executive Chair Richard White, reportedly in a personal capacity. The company said there was no suggestion in the media commentary of an investigation into WiseTech. It also said it was not aware of any investigation as outlined in the article, and that Mr White had denied any involvement in or with human trafficking.

Those headlines are a concern and investors should not ignore governance or reputation risk.

But I think the key investment question remains the business itself. WiseTech’s customers, products, market position, and growth outlook are what should drive long-term value. If the company continues to execute, expand its platform, and grow earnings, I think the current share price could end up looking far too cheap.

Foolish takeaway

A share price fall of almost 75% can make investors nervous, and understandably so.

But WiseTech still operates in a large, complex, and increasingly digital market. Its software is used inside the daily machinery of global logistics, and consensus forecasts suggest earnings could grow strongly over the next few years.

There are plenty of risks to consider. Execution, acquisitions, valuation, governance, and market confidence all need watching. Even so, I think the current WiseTech share price offers patient investors a very attractive entry point.

For a business with this kind of global software opportunity, WiseTech shares look cheap to me.

The post Down almost 75%, are WiseTech shares really cheap? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

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• US chip stocks were smashed overnight. So why are ASX tech shares rising?

Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended WiseTech Global. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended WiseTech Global. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.