ASX wine stock Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE) looked as though it was finally turning a corner.

After gaining around 7% over the past month, investors were starting to believe the worst might be over. Instead, the ASX wine stock slipped another 3.2% to $4.50 on Thursday, extending its six-month decline to 14% and its 12-month loss to a hefty 43%.

So, what stopped the recovery in its tracks?

Patchy consumer demand

The $4 billion ASX wine stock has spent much of the past year battling headwinds on several fronts.

Investors have become increasingly concerned about patchy consumer demand, a slower-than-expected recovery in China, and weaker discretionary spending as households continue to feel the pressure from higher living costs.

Premium wines like Treasury Wine’s brand Penfolds may command attractive margins, but they are hardly immune when consumers tighten their belts.

Thursday’s decline also appeared to reflect a degree of profit-taking after the recent rally rather than any material negative announcement.

Reasons for optimism remain

In fact, management delivered a reasonably encouraging update at its recent investor day. Treasury Wine reaffirmed FY26 EBIT guidance of $480 million to $490 million and indicated FY27 earnings should be at least comparable as Penfolds completes its inventory rebalancing in China.

Management also highlighted the TWE Ascent transformation program, which is targeting $100 million in annual cost savings. The first benefits are expected to flow through in FY27, with the full financial impact building over the following two to three years.

Investors initially welcomed those updates, sending the ASX wine stock almost 10% higher immediately after the investor day.

Why the long-term story remains intact

Treasury Wine still owns one of the strongest portfolios of premium wine brands in the industry. Its stable includes Penfolds, 19 Crimes, Wolf Blass, Lindeman’s, and Squealing Pig, giving the company exposure to both luxury and mainstream consumers across multiple global markets.

Management of the ASX wine stock continues to shift the business towards higher-margin premium wines, reducing its reliance on lower-priced, more competitive products.

China could also become a meaningful growth driver again. The removal of tariffs on Australian wine has reopened an important export market. While the recovery has been slower than many investors hoped, stronger demand would provide a significant earnings tailwind.

Combined with Treasury Wine’s broad international distribution network, the company is less dependent on any single market than many of its peers.

Risks remain

The investment case of this ASX wine stock is not without challenges. Consumer demand remains uneven, competition is intense, and the recovery in China still needs to prove itself.

If spending on premium wines remains subdued or Chinese sales disappoint, earnings growth could again fall short of expectations.

What do analysts think?

Despite recent weakness, brokers remain constructive. Citi continues to rate Treasury Wine a buy with a $5.50 price target, implying upside of around 22% from current levels.

Morgans is even more optimistic on the ASX wine stock. Following the company’s investor day, the broker reiterated its buy recommendation and lifted its target price to $5.95 per share. That suggests Treasury Wine shares could climb roughly 32% over the next 12 months.

For now, investors appear torn between encouraging long-term fundamentals and near-term uncertainty. The next few earnings update next month may determine which story ultimately wins.

The post This ASX wine stock looked ready to recover. Why did it stumble again? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Treasury Wine Estates. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Treasury Wine Estates. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares remain one of the most widely held investments on the ASX.

The bank last traded around $161.14, which places it around the middle of its 52-week range of $146.98 to $185.59. That means investors are currently looking at a share price that is below recent highs, but still far from distressed levels.

So the question is simple: should investors buy, hold, or sell CBA shares in July?

My view is that CBA is a buy.

Why I still like CBA

CBA continues to stand out as the highest-quality bank in Australia, in my view.

It has a dominant retail franchise, a very large and stable deposit base, and a strong digital banking platform that supports customer retention and efficiency. These are not new advantages, but they are the kind that tend to compound over long periods.

Banking is a competitive industry, but scale and trust still matter. I think CBA has both in abundance.

Even in a more uncertain economic environment, customers still need mortgages, transaction accounts, savings products, credit cards, and business banking services. CBA sits at the centre of that system.

Earnings and valuation

According to CommSec consensus estimates, CBA is expected to generate earnings per share of $6.54 in FY26 and $6.72 in FY27.

Based on the current share price of $161.14, that puts the bank on a price-to-earnings ratio of around 25 times FY26 earnings and 24 times FY27 earnings.

That is not a cheap valuation. However, I think it is important to separate valuation from quality. CBA consistently trades at a premium because investors are willing to pay for stability, profitability, and lower risk compared to other banks.

In that context, I think the valuation is justified rather than extreme.

Income appeal

CBA also remains attractive for income-focused investors.

While its dividend yield is not the highest in the banking sector, CBA’s dividends are typically supported by strong earnings and a conservative approach to capital management.

That combination of income and safety is a key reason many investors continue to hold the stock even after strong share price performance in recent years.

Key risks

No investment is without risk, and CBA is no exception.

The biggest risks remain around housing market conditions, credit quality, regulatory pressure, and the broader economic cycle. If unemployment were to rise significantly or property prices were to weaken materially, bank earnings would likely come under pressure.

There is also the risk that investors are already paying a premium for quality, which could limit near-term capital upside.

Foolish takeaway

I think CBA shares are a buy in July.

The valuation is not cheap, but I think it is fair for the quality of the business. CBA remains the dominant banking franchise in Australia, with strong earnings power, a reliable deposit base, and a long track record of navigating different economic cycles.

For long-term investors, I think it remains one of the most dependable ASX shares to own.

The post Should I buy, hold, or sell CBA shares in July? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has positions in Commonwealth Bank Of Australia. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) has endured one of the most turbulent periods in its recent history. CSL shares are up around 25% over the past month, but still sit roughly 51% lower over the past 12 months.

That sharp rebound raises an obvious question: is this the start of a recovery—or just a temporary relief rally in a longer downtrend?

How did we get here?

Not long ago, CSL shares were viewed as one of the most reliable compounders on the ASX. It built its reputation on steady earnings growth, dominant global positions in plasma-derived therapies, and a track record of rewarding long-term shareholders.

But sentiment has shifted sharply. A combination of earnings downgrades, leadership transition, and roughly US$5 billion in non-cash impairments tied to the CSL Vifor acquisition has weighed heavily on confidence.

The result has been a share price collapse of more than 50% over the past year.

A strong business under pressure

Despite the price weakness of CSL shares, the underlying business remains highly defensive.

CSL is still the world’s second-largest plasma-derived therapies company. It operates in an industry with high barriers to entry, strict regulatory requirements, and long-established supply chains. These structural advantages are not easily replicated, even by well-funded competitors.

CSL’s latest update offered a clearer picture of current conditions. The company now expects FY26 revenue of approximately US$15.2 billion and underlying net profit after tax and amortisation (NPATA) of around US$3.1 billion, on a constant currency basis.

While these figures reflect continued growth, they also highlight near-term margin pressure and execution challenges.

The key pressure point

The biggest issue remains the US immunoglobulin business within CSL Behring. Demand continues to grow at a healthy mid-to-high single-digit rate, which is broadly in line with expectations.

However, supply constraints and pricing dynamics mean the healthcare company is not fully capturing that demand growth in real time. That timing mismatch has weighed on earnings momentum and investor sentiment on CSL shares.

What do analysts think?

Broker views are split. Morgans remains constructive on CSL shares, retaining a buy rating with a price target of $147.59, implying around 25% upside from current levels.

The team at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG), however, is more cautious. It has a lower price target of $114 and maintains a neutral stance, citing uncertainty across CSL’s core plasma and albumin businesses, as well as ongoing competitive pressures.

Foolish takeaway

The debate now centres on timing rather than business quality. CSL remains a dominant global healthcare franchise with long-term structural advantages. But near-term earnings visibility is unclear, and investors may need patience before a sustained recovery takes hold.

Management has pointed to FY27 as a key inflection point. This is supported by leadership changes and expected improvements in the Behring division. For now, CSL sits in an awkward middle ground: a high-quality business going through a difficult reset.

Whether the recent rally of CSL shares marks the beginning of recovery—or just another bounce in a downtrend—will likely depend on what FY27 delivers.

The post CSL shares are up 25%: is it time to buy, hold or sell? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL and Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL and Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.