The Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) share price has been having a tough year.

The iron ore giant’s shares hit a new 52-week low this week following the release of a disappointing quarterly performance update.

So, with the company’s shares down almost 30% since the start of the year, are they not a bargain buy?

Is the Fortescue share price a bargain buy?

Unfortunately, a couple of Australia’s leading brokers don’t believe that now is the time to buy shares.

For example, a note out of Morgans reveals that its analysts have downgraded the miner’s shares to a trim rating with a reduced price target of $15.40 (from $18.70).

Based on the current Fortescue share price of $15.79, this implies potential downside of 2.5% for investors. 

Commenting on the quarterly update and downgrade, Morgans said:

We have long argued that investing material capital in near-term loss-making projects (magnetite and new energy) has not diversified Fortescue, and has instead left group earnings more exposed to the iron ore price. Magnetite adds more iron ore exposure but at a higher cost, while new energy investment, and US$0.9-1.3bn of FY27 decarbonisation spend, are funded from hematite cash flow. This dynamic is starting to show in the numbers. 

Fortescue flagged that net debt rose US$1.9bn in 1Q27, equal to the final dividend (US$1.0bn) plus quarterly capex (US$0.9bn), implying negative FCF for the quarter. We attribute this mainly to weaker hematite cash flow after the central buying group China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG) reportedly halted purchases of two of Fortescue’s products during the quarter, leaving shipments 6% and actual sales 14% below Visible Alpha (VA) consensus in 1Q27. On updated estimates we lower our rating to TRIM (from HOLD) with an A$15.40 target price (was A$18.70).

Bell Potter says hold

A note out of Bell Potter reveals that its analysts are a little more positive.

According to the note, the broker has responded to the update by retaining its hold rating with a reduced price target of $15.80 (from $17.10). This is broadly in line with the current Fortescue share price.

Speaking about the update, Bell Potter said:

FMG has reported a suite of negative metrics in an out-of-cycle preliminary report updating performance for the September 2026 quarter. Total shipments were down 6% YoY to 46.8Mt (incl. 2.5Mt from Iron Bridge), with a scheduled port shutdown impacting volumes. Sales of 42.9Mt were 8% below shipments of 46.8Mt, with the 3.9Mt gap attributed to ongoing negotiations with China Mineral Resource Group (CMRG), China’s centralised ore buying agency. This is the first time FMG has disclosed a material discrepancy between shipments and sales. Price realisations also weakened to 82% (vs benchmark Platts 61%: US$80/dmt).

We had previously flagged risks to price realisations and we now make a greater allowance and for longer through our forecast period. EPS changes in this report are: FY27 -6%, FY28 -6% and FY29 -7%. We lower our NPV-based target price by 8%, to $15.80/sh and retain our Hold recommendation.

The post Is the Fortescue share price a bargain buy? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Buy, hold, sell: Rural Funds Group, Imdex, Fortescue shares
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday
• Fortescue posts September 2026 quarterly earnings update
• NextDC, Generation Development, Fortescue shares hit 52-week low. Can they rebound?
• Fortescue vs PLS Group: Which ASX mining share is the better buy?

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

S&P/ASX 300 Index (ASX: XKO) shares are down 3.6% over 12 months.

Here, three experts give us their views on three ASX 300 shares.

Rural Funds Group Ltd (ASX: RFF)

The Rural Funds share price is down 0.3% over 12 months.

Bell Potter reiterated its buy rating on this ASX 300 agricultural real estate investment trust (REIT) on Wednesday.

The broker has a 12-month price target of $2.55.

This implies potential capital gains of more than 120% ahead.

The broker commented:

Since providing disappointing FY27e AFFO guidance the share price of RFF has been under pressure, this is despite the favourable backdrop in agricultural land valuations and RFF having executed asset sales to create balance sheet capacity, with further sales planned.

During FY26 RFF contracted to dispose of $315m in assets at an 18% premium to BV. While this is a positive, there remains $356m worth
of assets under development or operated, where there is limited income being generated.

Execution of further asset sales, including mature and operated macadamia orchards and leasing of properties undergoing productivity enhancements would likely be catalysts for improved AFFO and the share price.

The 41% discount to Market-NAV and 34% discount to NAV are both all-time highs and material deviations from historical averages.

Imdex Ltd (ASX: IMD)

The Imdex share price is down 4.3% over 12 months.

Imdex provides cloud-connected devices and solutions that help mining companies uncover, define, and mine ore bodies.

Bell Potter has a hold rating and a $3.80 price target on this ASX 300 materials share. 

This implies a potential 13% upside ahead.

The broker said: 

We are becoming increasingly cautious of a deceleration in exploration activity growth from FY28, compounded by weakening Junior equity raisings, a resurgence of cost input inflation observed across the global mining industry, rising bond yields and a weakening gold price environment.

However, exploration activity appears supported in FY27 by a favourable trailing Junior equity raising trend and elevated CY26 budgeted spend by Majors and Intermediates.

Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG)

The Fortescue share price is down 18% over 12 months. 

Morgans put a trim rating and a $15.40 price target on Fortescue after its 1Q FY27 update yesterday.

This suggests a potential 2.5% downside ahead for the ASX 300 mining giant.

The broker said:

We have long argued that investing material capital in near-term loss-making projects (magnetite and new energy) has not diversified Fortescue, and has instead left group earnings more exposed to the iron ore price.

Magnetite adds more iron ore exposure but at a higher cost, while new energy investment, and US$0.9-1.3bn of FY27 decarbonisation spend, are funded from hematite cash flow. This dynamic is starting to show in the numbers.

Fortescue flagged that net debt rose US$1.9bn in 1Q27, equal to the final dividend (US$1.0bn) plus quarterly capex (US$0.9bn), implying negative FCF for the quarter.

We attribute this mainly to weaker hematite cash flow after the central buying group China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG) reportedly halted purchases of two of Fortescue’s products during the quarter, leaving shipments 6% and actual sales 14% below Visible Alpha (VA) consensus in 1Q27.

The post Buy, hold, sell: Rural Funds Group, Imdex, Fortescue shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Is the Fortescue share price a bargain buy?
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday
• Fortescue posts September 2026 quarterly earnings update
• NextDC, Generation Development, Fortescue shares hit 52-week low. Can they rebound?
• Is this cheap ASX dividend share one of the best income buys?

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Rural Funds Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Wesfarmers vs Coles Group shares: Which ASX dividend stock is better for retirees?

Everyday investors looking for reliable, fully franked dividends often land on two household names: Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES) and Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL) Both are ASX giants with strong brands, defensive business models and long histories of shareholder payouts. But for retirees focused on dependable income and capital stability, which one comes out on top? Here’s my break down of Wesfarmers vs Coles Group shares.

The case for Wesfarmers

Wesfarmers is a true blue-chip conglomerate, operating across retail, hardware, office supplies, health and chemicals. With famous brands like Bunnings, Kmart, Officeworks and Priceline under its belt, plus a chemicals and fertilisers division, its earnings are spread across sectors that tend to do well in most economic environments.

Personally, I like Wesfarmers for its size, diversity and strategic flexibility. Its $86.08 billion market cap makes it one of Australia’s largest listed companies, which can help cushion the business during downturns.

Key fundamentals for Wesfarmers:

• Market cap: $86.08 billion
• Dividend yield: 2.94% (fully franked)
• P/E ratio: 29.78
• Recent dividend per share: $2.22, with a strong history of fully franked payments
• Year-to-date return: -4.2%

Wesfarmers has a solid record of paying dividends. It has delivered decades of fully franked payouts, often topping them up with occasional specials. For retirees, that 100% franking can make a big difference come tax time.

The case for Coles

Coles is one of Australia’s top supermarket and liquor retailers, with Coles Supermarkets and its bottle shop chains a staple in almost every suburb. While it used to be part of Wesfarmers, Coles was spun out in 2018 and is now very much its own beast.

For conservative, income-focused investors—particularly retirees—Coles’ appeal is simple: Food retailing is a defensive sector, and people have to eat whatever the economy is doing.

Notable fundamentals for Coles Group:

• Market cap: $30.75 billion
• Dividend yield: 3.39% (fully franked)
• P/E ratio: 28.33
• Recent dividend per share: $0.74, also fully franked with a stable payout pattern
• Year-to-date return: 10.9%

Coles has consistently paid out fully franked dividends since relisting, and the current yield is a touch higher than Wesfarmers. This direct income edge may appeal to retirees wanting to maximise after-tax income.

Valuation comparison

With both companies in the ASX’s top ranks and fully franked dividends on offer, it’s worth drilling into their key valuation measures to spot the differences most relevant to retirees:

	Wesfarmers	Coles
Market cap	$86.08bn	$30.75bn
P/E ratio	29.78	28.33
Dividend yield	2.94%	3.39%
Dividend per share	$2.22	$0.74
Franking	100%	100%

Wesfarmers trades at a slightly higher P/E than Coles, but both are in the same ballpark. The standout difference for retirees is Coles’ higher yield—3.39% versus Wesfarmers’ 2.94%—on current prices.

Recent share price momentum

Comparing recent share price momentum up to 6 October:

• As of 6 October 2026, Wesfarmers closed at $75.86, up 0.52% on the day, but its year-to-date return sits at -4.2%.
• As of the same date, Coles closed at $22.88, down 0.52% on the day, but boasts a year-to-date return of +10.9%.

That’s a steady outperformance from Coles in 2026 so far, while Wesfarmers has dropped back a touch.

Which is the better buy?

Weighing up Wesfarmers vs Coles, if I were a retiree focused on maximising regular, tax-effective income, I’d lean toward Coles right now. The dividend yield is modestly higher (3.39% vs 2.94%), both are fully franked, and Coles’ supermarket focus means cashflows tend to be steady and recession-resistant. Add to that its positive year-to-date share price momentum (despite a few wobbles in the broader market), and Coles looks to be delivering both income and capital stability.

Wesfarmers is more diversified—and in the long run, that can mean more growth potential—but for a retiree’s portfolio, I think the steadiness, relative simplicity, and strong current yield of Coles get it over the line for me today.

The post Wesfarmers vs Coles: Which dividend share is better for retirees? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Why this top broker is buying Charter Hall, Soul Patts, and Wesfarmers shares
• My favourite ASX passive income shares for retirees
• Down 20%: Is the Wesfarmers share price a top buy?
• How much passive income can I earn from a $950,000 superannuation balance?
• How much passive income can I make from a $100,000 ASX share portfolio?

Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips. This article was prepared with the assistance of Large Language Model (LLM) tools for the initial draft. Any content assisted by AI is subject to our robust human-in-the-loop quality control framework, involving thorough review, substantial editing, and fact-checking by our experienced writers and editors holding appropriate credentials. The Motley Fool Australia stands behind the work of our editorial team and takes ultimate responsibility for the content published by The Motley Fool Australia.