Picking three popular ASX blue chip shares is the easy part of this exercise.

The harder question is whether Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA), Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG), and CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) can still justify their place in a portfolio two decades from now, not just today.

Each faces a genuine test over that horizon, and each currently looks like it can pass it, for different reasons.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia: the test is whether dominance survives disruption

CBA’s 20-year test is not whether it remains Australia’s largest bank. It has a good chance of it.

The real test is whether a dominant, capital-intensive incumbent can keep fending off digital disruption for two more decades, as it has for the past two.

In the first half of FY2026, CBA delivered a statutory net profit of $5.41 billion, up 5% on the prior corresponding period. Furthermore, CBA was able to continue ramping up technology spending to defend its lead.

However, at approximately 26 times forward earnings, CBA already prices in a significant amount of that continued dominance.

The bull case rests on scale, trust, and a banking app used by more Australians than any rivals. These advantages compound slowly but have proven durable across multiple banking cycles already.

Macquarie Group: the test is whether a trading culture can keep reinventing itself

Macquarie’s 20-year test is different again.

Unlike a retail bank, Macquarie has already reinvented its business model multiple times across three decades, moving from a niche investment bank into one of the world’s largest infrastructure and asset managers.

Morgans was impressed with Macquarie’s FY2026 performance. The broker noted profit was up strongly on the prior year and ahead of consensus estimates. However, the broker flagged that, following recent share price strength, Macquarie shares are close to being fully valued today.

Yet for long-term holders, the case for Macquarie over two decades is less about today’s price and more about betting on a management culture that has consistently found its next growth engine before the previous one matured. These intrinsic competitive advantages are harder to predict than a bank’s mortgage book, but ones Macquarie has repeatedly delivered on.

CSL: the test is whether execution catches up to the moat

CSL’s 20-year test is the most interesting of the three. This is because the moat is not in question, but the recent execution has been.

Morgans retains a buy rating on CSL with a price target of $147.59, arguing the issues behind the FY2026 guidance downgrade, including China albumin price pressure and US immunoglobulin channel inventory normalisation, are executional rather than structural.

CSL’s barriers to entry in plasma collection and biotherapeutics remain extremely high, built over more than a century of operating history. That durability is why brokers have remained broadly constructive even amid a 60% decline from its all-time high.

CSL shares now trade on roughly 28 times earnings, expensive but insignificant over a 20-year time horizon.

The 20-year case for CSL is essentially a bet that an irreplaceable global franchise outlasts a difficult few years of execution. This is the kind of mis-pricing that long-term holders are supposed to be able to look through.

Why the 20-year framing changes the analysis for these ASX shares

Most “buy and hold” investors default to a five-year horizon. This is where current earnings momentum and broker price targets carry most of the weight.

Stretching that horizon to 20 years shifts the question from “what will this stock do next year” to “does the underlying moat survive technological, competitive, and cyclical change for two decades.”

CBA’s moat is threatened by digital disruption. Macquarie’s moat depends on a culture of reinvention rather than a single fixed advantage. CSL’s moat is arguably the strongest of the three on paper, but is currently being tested by execution rather than competition.

Foolish takeaway for these ASX shares

CBA, Macquarie, and CSL each represent a different kind of 20-year bet.

CBA is a bet that scale and trust keep beating disruption. Macquarie is a bet that a culture of reinvention will continue to work as well in 2046 as it has since the 1990s. CSL is a bet that an already-proven moat outlasts a rough few years of execution.

With strong track records on reinforcing their respective competitive advantages, these three blue-chip ASX shares are positioned to continue delivering well into the future.

The post 3 ASX blue chip shares to buy and hold for the next 20 years appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• 3 quality ASX shares I’d buy (that aren’t CBA or Wesfarmers)

Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL and Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL and Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

WiseTech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC) shares have been smashed.

The logistics software company is trading around $31.39, down almost 75% from its 52-week high of $121.31.

That is a huge fall for a company that was once one of the ASX’s most highly rated technology shares. It also raises a fair question: has the market gone too far?

I think it has.

The valuation has changed dramatically

WiseTech was once priced for a lot of success.

That made the shares vulnerable when sentiment turned. A high-growth stock can fall hard when investors become more cautious, and WiseTech has certainly felt that pressure.

But the current valuation now looks really interesting to me.

According to CommSec, consensus estimates are for earnings per share of 92.8 cents in FY26, $1.45 in FY27, and $2.19 in FY28.

At the current share price, that puts WiseTech on a price-to-earnings ratio of around 34 times FY26 earnings, 22 times FY27 earnings, and just over 14 times FY28 earnings.

That is the part that catches my attention.

A FY26 multiple in the 30s still requires growth. But if WiseTech gets anywhere near the FY28 consensus forecast, the valuation starts to look unusually low for a global software business with its market position.

A powerful role in global trade

The reason I still like WiseTech is the problem it solves.

Global trade is full of friction. Goods move through ports, warehouses, customs systems, carriers, freight forwarders, importers, exporters, and regulators. Every shipment can involve documents, time zones, compliance checks, pricing, tracking, and a long chain of handovers.

That is exactly the kind of environment where good software can become valuable.

WiseTech’s CargoWise platform helps logistics companies run more of that complexity through one system. The more deeply software is embedded in daily operations, the harder it can become to replace.

I also like the ambition of the company. WiseTech wants to be the operating system for global trade and logistics. That is a big goal, but it is also the kind of market where scale, product depth, compliance capability, and integration can matter enormously.

The company says it serves more than 22,000 logistics companies and other industry participants across 193 countries. It also notes that with the acquisition of e2open, its network has expanded to more than 500,000 connected enterprises across manufacturing, logistics, channels, and distribution.

That gives the business a large base from which to keep building.

What about the founder allegations?

There are also external matters investors will be aware of.

WiseTech recently responded to media commentary alleging an investigation into founder and Executive Chair Richard White, reportedly in a personal capacity. The company said there was no suggestion in the media commentary of an investigation into WiseTech. It also said it was not aware of any investigation as outlined in the article, and that Mr White had denied any involvement in or with human trafficking.

Those headlines are a concern and investors should not ignore governance or reputation risk.

But I think the key investment question remains the business itself. WiseTech’s customers, products, market position, and growth outlook are what should drive long-term value. If the company continues to execute, expand its platform, and grow earnings, I think the current share price could end up looking far too cheap.

Foolish takeaway

A share price fall of almost 75% can make investors nervous, and understandably so.

But WiseTech still operates in a large, complex, and increasingly digital market. Its software is used inside the daily machinery of global logistics, and consensus forecasts suggest earnings could grow strongly over the next few years.

There are plenty of risks to consider. Execution, acquisitions, valuation, governance, and market confidence all need watching. Even so, I think the current WiseTech share price offers patient investors a very attractive entry point.

For a business with this kind of global software opportunity, WiseTech shares look cheap to me.

The post Down almost 75%, are WiseTech shares really cheap? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended WiseTech Global. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended WiseTech Global. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) shares staged another strong rebound on Thursday, rising 2% to $117.65.

That extends the company’s gain over the past month to roughly 20%, a welcome change for long-suffering shareholders.

But the bigger picture remains far less impressive.

Despite the recent rally, CSL shares are still down about 32% in 2026 and have plunged a remarkable 51% over the past 12 months.

Not long ago, CSL was considered one of the safest long-term holdings on the ASX. It built a reputation as a dependable compounder, consistently growing earnings and rewarding patient investors. These days, however, the healthcare giant seems to lurch from one setback to another.

So what happened?

CSL’s latest update exposed the challenges

CSL’s latest market update provided a timely reminder of why investors have become so cautious.

The company now expects FY26 revenue of approximately US$15.2 billion and underlying net profit after tax and amortisation (NPATA) of around US$3.1 billion, both on a constant currency basis.

At first glance, those numbers may not appear disastrous. Dig a little deeper, however, and several headwinds become clear.

The biggest issue remains CSL Behring’s immunoglobulin business in the US. Demand for immunoglobulin products continues to grow at a healthy mid-to-high single-digit pace, which is broadly in line with management’s expectations. Unfortunately, investors in CSL shares won’t see the full benefit of that demand growth immediately.

CSL is normalising inventory levels across its distribution channels, which is expected to reduce reported revenue by approximately US$300 million.

Deteriorated prices

While CSL has successfully expanded its market share and stabilised sales volumes, pricing conditions have deteriorated. In other words, the company is selling more product but earning less from it. Management expects that dynamic to reduce revenue by roughly US$200 million.

The hits keep coming. CSL also flagged revenue impacts from conflict in the Middle East, slower-than-expected growth for gene therapy treatment HEMGENIX, and increasing competition in its iron business. Together, those factors are expected to shave another US$150 million from revenue.

As if that wasn’t enough, CSL expects to recognise around US$5 billion in impairment charges across FY26 and FY27. That’s the sort of figure that tends to make investors wince.

Still reasons for optimism

The update wasn’t entirely negative.

Management continues to forecast stronger revenue growth during the second half of FY26 for CSL Behring, supported by solid underlying demand, commercial execution, and benefits from ongoing operational improvement programs.

Meanwhile, vaccine business Seqirus is now expected to deliver a moderately stronger performance than previously anticipated.

Those positives help explain why the price of CSL shares has bounced from recent lows despite the disappointing headlines.

Is the CSL share price a buy?

Broker sentiment suggests analysts are not ready to give up on CSL shares just yet.

According to TradingView data, there have been 18 broker ratings on the stock over the past three months. Eight analysts rate CSL as a buy, while the remaining ten sit on the fence with hold recommendations.

The average price target stands at $141.53, implying potential upside of approximately 20% from current levels.

That suggests many analysts believe the worst may already be reflected in CSL’s battered valuation.

The post Once untouchable, now unloved: What’s up with CSL shares? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• $10,000 invested in CSL shares 12 months ago is now worth…
• Why I’d buy CSL and Zip shares before they recover
• New to ASX shares? Avoid these 3 beginner mistakes
• Down 54%: What should I do with my CSL shares now?
• Is this broker right about CSL shares?

Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.