Author: openjargon

  • I’ve worked at Costco for 18 years. These 8 Kirkland Signature items feel high-end.

    White boxes of hard seltzer with images of white cans with images of fruit on them. The flavors include mango, grapefruit, black cherry, and lime.
    Costco carries plenty of high-quality items.

    • I've worked at Costco for 18 years, so I have a few favorite high-quality items I like to get there.
    • In my opinion, the Kirkland Signature eyeglasses are comparable to those of designer brands.
    • The Kirkland Signature hard seltzers are tasty and perfect to bring to parties or tailgates.

    I've worked at Costco for 18 years and love picking up high-quality products for my family. Oftentimes, I buy items from Costco's house brand, Kirkland Signature, which makes over 350 products, from food items to home essentials.

    I find that buying products from the Kirkland Signature brand, which made up about a quarter of Costco's revenue in 2021, saves my family money.

    Here are eight high-quality Kirkland Signature items I grab for my family of four at Costco.

    Prices may vary by location.

    The Kirkland Signature cage-free liquid egg whites help me reach my protein goals.
    Blue box of cage-free egg whites in a shopping cart with a picture of an egg-white omelet on it
    I use the Kirkland Signature cage-free liquid egg whites in my meals every week.

    My family and I try to maintain a protein-rich lifestyle with the help of items like the Kirkland Signature cage-free egg whites.

    I eat these egg whites five times a week to reach my protein goals and feel full. If you enjoy egg whites and want a great deal, I recommend getting them at Costco.

    Each box contains six cartons for $11.40.

    I get the Kirkland Signature salmon-and-sweet-potato dog food for my pet.
    Blue and white bags of salmon-and-sweet-potato dog food with a picture of a husky on the bag
    The Kirkland Signature Nature's Domain salmon-and-sweet-potato dog food contains lots of great ingredients for my pet.

    I always want to buy high-quality food for my pet, so I choose Nature's Domain Kirkland Signature salmon-and-sweet-potato dog food. I love that it's grain-free and contains vitamin E, prebiotic fiber, and omega fatty acids.

    A 35-pound bag of the salmon-and-sweet-potato dog food is $53 at my location.

    The Kirkland Signature bath tissue is one of my essentials. 
    Large package of Kirkland Signature bath tissue with a blue design in a Costco cart in parking lot
    The Kirkland Signature bath tissue is better than many other brands I've tried.

    The Kirkland Signature bath tissue is the only brand of toilet paper I buy. This soft tissue is much better than most brands I've purchased and is pretty affordable at Costco.

    I like how the package comes with individually wrapped sets of six rolls, so I can easily store some bundles in the closet and place others in the bathroom. A pack of Kirkland Signature bath tissue with 30 rolls is $23.50 at my Costco.

    We pretty much only use the brand's alkaline AA batteries.
    Several packs of Kirkland Signature AA batteries in red boxes with Kirkland Signature label on them at Costco
    The Kirkland Signature alkaline AA batteries are our go-to for games, remotes, and more.

    The Kirkland Signature alkaline batteries are my go-to. We need batteries for many things nowadays, and having these on deck for toys, games, and remote controls is essential.

    The Kirkland Signature batteries have a 12-year shelf life, which is comparable to other leading brands. At my store, each package of 48 batteries costs $16.

    I've never regretted buying my 12-piece nonstick cookware set.
    A box of cookware with an image of several black pots and pans in a gray kitchen on the front of the packaging
    I've used the Kirkland Signature 12-piece nonstick cookware set to make many meals.

    I cook every day, and finding nonstick pots and pans that I liked took me a while. Less than a year ago, I tried the Kirkland Signature nonstick hard-anodized cookware set and haven't been disappointed.

    This cookware set contains 12 pieces, including saucepans, skillets, and lids. It's handwashable and oven-safe up to 400 degrees Fahrenheit.

    I bought this cookware set for $130.

    The Kirkland Signature hard-seltzer variety pack is great to bring to parties.
    White boxes of hard seltzer with images of white cans with images of fruit on them. The flavors include mango, grapefruit, black cherry, and lime.
    The Kirkland Signature hard-seltzer variety pack contains four flavors, so there's something for everybody.

    Kirkland Signature hard seltzers are perfect for parties and tailgates. The 12-ounce cans contain 5% alcohol and come in mango, grapefruit, black-cherry, and lime flavors.

    The 24-packs of Kirkland Signature hard seltzers are $19 at my store.

    I never have to worry about ripping the brand's Flex-Tech 13-gallon kitchen trash bags.
    Purple boxes with images of garbage bags with an orange drawstring and a garbage can in the background on them
    The Kirkland Signature Flex-Tech 13-gallon kitchen trash bags seem super strong.

    I promised myself I would never buy trash bags from anywhere else but Costco. Compared to the offerings at other stores, the Kirkland Signature Flex-Tech kitchen bags are the best price I've seen — I can get a year's supply for about $20.

    These trash bags fit perfectly in my 13-gallon trash can. They have great stretch and drawstrings, so they can easily be pulled out of a trash can. Every box contains 200 bags, which means each bag is $0.10.

    I think the Kirkland Signature glasses are comparable to designer ones.
    Several eyeglasses on wooden shelf display on red table at Costco. Three pairs of glasses on the top shelves are also sunglasses
    We buy a pair of Kirkland Signature eyeglasses each year.

    Every year, my family and I have our eyes examined and pick out glasses at Costco's optical center. Costco carries designer brands, but I think the high-quality Kirkland Signature lenses are right up there with them.

    These lenses are stylish, relatively affordable, and covered by Costco's 100% satisfaction guarantee policy. Glasses and sunglasses at my Costco start at $30.

    Click to keep reading Costco diaries like this one.

    Read the original article on Business Insider
  • Walmart store manager says he ‘almost fainted’ when he found he could make up to $530K under a new pay plan

    A Walmart cart in a parking lot
    A Walmart cart in a parking lot

    • Earlier this year, Walmart announced a new store manager pay plan that tops out at $530,000.
    • Store manager Greg Harden told Bloomberg he "almost fainted" when he learned of it.
    • Walmart says better pay and benefits, plus better tech, have lowered turnover among store leadership.

    Walmart made waves earlier this year when it announced it was upping pay for store managers, with some potentially able to earn up to $530,000.

    "I almost fainted when I found out," said Greg Harden, a Supercenter manager in Texas told Bloomberg.

    Harden currently manages over 400 workers and more than $100 million in sales at his store in Grand Prairie, Texas, one of the largest in the Dallas area, according to the report.

    Under the new plan, Walmart says the average base salary for US store managers is now $128,000, up from $117,000, while the top-paid Supercenter managers will see a base salary of $170,000.

    Add to that a 200% performance bonus and stock grants worth between $10,000 and $20,000 — depending on store size — and the package starts to look quite lucrative for a job that notably does not require a four-year college degree.

    Still, it's a lot of work to run a Walmart, and Harden told Bloomberg he has put in lots of six-day weeks with 10-hour shifts that start at 5 a.m. each morning.

    Other managers told the publication it's a bit like being in charge of a small town — to the point where they could consider a job like being mayor.

    Walmart's executive vice president of store operations Cedric Clark told Bloomberg the pay increase, along with recent improvements in benefits and a slate of new tech tools, have helped to improve morale and reduce turnover among store leadership.

    You can read the outlet's full interview with store manager Greg Harden here.

    If you are a Walmart store manager who would like to share your perspective, please contact Dominick via email or text/call/Signal at 646.768.4750. Responses will be kept confidential, and Business Insider strongly recommends using a personal email and a non-work device when reaching out.

    Read the original article on Business Insider
  • Russia’s creeping advance is costing it 1,200 soldiers a day: Western intel

    A Ukrainian military tank fires during military training as the war between Russia and Ukraine continues in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine on May 28, 2024.
    A Ukrainian military tank fires during military training as the war between Russia and Ukraine continues in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine on May 28, 2024.

    • Russia's casualties reached an average of 1,200 per day this month, according to UK intelligence.
    • It's the highest since the start of the war, likely due to costly offensives across the front lines.
    • Russia is currently prioritizing attacks in and around Kharkiv in Ukraine's northeast. 

    Russia's intense attacks across the front line have been costly, with the number of casualties per day reaching a new peak this month, according to new intelligence.

    The assessment attributes the elevated casualty rate to Russia's brutal ongoing offensive, noting that Russia's ability to replenish its units is stretched thin due to its consistent losses.

    According to Friday's intel from the UK Ministry of Defense, the average number of Russian personnel casualties was over 1,200 a day in May, the highest number reported since the war began. The ministry also said the total number of killed or wounded Russian soldiers since the February 2022 invasion is likely at 500,000.

    May's elevated casualty rate is likely due to a variety of factors, most notably Russia's ongoing offensive to try to capture more ground before Ukraine's frontline is rearmed by more ammunition sent by the US. It's likely also the result of Russia rushing relatively inexperienced and untrained soldiers into battle, often in bloody head-on assaults.

    Per the ministry, "It is highly likely that most Russian forces receive only limited training, and they are unable to carry out complex offensive operations. As a result, Russia employs small-scale but costly wave attacks in an effort to weaken Ukrainian defenses."

    Ukrainian gunners firing at Russian positions in the Kharkiv region.
    Ukrainian gunners firing at Russian positions in the Kharkiv region.

    Such attacks are seen in areas around Kharkiv, Ukraine's second largest city. Just Thursday, the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington DC-based think tank, wrote that Russian forces look to be transferring forces to areas north of Kharkiv, citing senior Ukrainian military officials.

    While the transfer "indicates that the Russian military likely continues to prioritize efforts to draw and fix Ukrainian forces from critical sectors of the frontline in eastern Ukraine," ISW wrote, as well as suggests Russia's plan is to launch the second phase of their offensive in northern Kharkiv, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi said that the Russian military doesn't have enough manpower in the area to launch a full-scale offensive that breaks Ukraine's defenses.

    Russia's high losses have become one of the most striking narratives of the war, an attritional warfare strategy that depends on massive firepower and human wave attacks by inexperienced, ill-equipped troops with little care for casualties or morale.

    Prior to UK intel on casualties in May, previous assessments from the ministry reported spikes in Russia's daily average loss rate, tracking from 400 in 2022, to 693 in 2023, and 913 in the first quarter of 2024.

    For Russia, part of the appeal of these massive human wave attacks may be their ability to keep a consistent pressure on Ukrainian defenses, forcing Ukraine to deplete ammunition to prevent being overwhelmed. This brute force strategy plays to Russia's strengths: a much larger population and defense industry.

    But Russia's high casualties also prevents it from training more capable units and keeping a majority of its troops in battle long enough to gain experience. Per the UK ministry's update on Friday, "the need to continuously replenish front line personnel will almost certainly continue to limit Russia's ability to generate higher capability units."

    Read the original article on Business Insider
  • A Sequoia partner announced he’s backing Donald Trump following his felony conviction, highlighting a political shift in Silicon Valley

    Donald Trump
    Donald Trump, pictured at Trump Tower following his guilty verdict, has increasingly found support in Silicon Valley.

    Shaun Maguire, a partner at the prominent venture capital firm Sequoia, announced he'll be cutting a $300,000 check to Donald Trump — just minutes after the former president was found guilty of 34 felony counts. The timing, Maguire said, was not a coincidence.

    In a lengthy screed on X, Maguire, who said he voted for Hilary Clinton in 2016 and did not vote in 2020, outlined his reasoning — including a take about the "double standards and lawfare against Trump."

    He also acknowledged that it may not be the most shrewd move for business.

    "I know that I'll lose friends for this. Some will refuse to do business with me," he wrote. "The media will probably demonize me, as they have so many others before me. But despite this, I still believe it's the right thing to do."

    Maguire, who did not respond to a request to comment from Business Insider, may be less alone than he thinks.

    Following his conviction, Trump's campaign reported raising a record $34.8 billion. And while that amount was mostly from small donors, per the Trump team, some big-money donors and Silicon Valley titans have signaled their support for the former president — and the guilty verdict doesn't seem to have stopped them.

    Billionaire venture capitalist David Sacks, who is co-hosting a fundraiser for Trump next week, called the trial a "sham." Elon Musk replied in agreement with Maguire. Investor Keith Rabois reposted various takes that criticized the verdict.

    While Silicon Valley has long been a liberal hub, Trump has been courting the big-pocketed tech executives and venture capitalists there.

    Chamath Palihapitiya, another venture capital billionaire and Sacks' podcast partner, will also cohost next week's Trump fundraiser at Sacks' home, despite donating six figures to Biden in 2020. Musk has reportedly been in talks with Trump regarding an advisory role, should he win.

    Others, like venture capitalist Marc Andreeson and Rabois, have not announced their support for Trump but have criticized Biden.

    The current administration's stance on regulation — particularly the FTC's approach to Big Tech companies — and calls for increased taxes on the wealthy has turned some former Democrats against the party.

    The members of the monied West Coast class throwing their support behind Trump are mirroring some Wall Street counterparts. Last week, Blackstone CEO Steve Schwarzman announced he'd be backing the former president. Hedge fund giant Bill Ackman is reportedly leaning toward endorsing him, too.

    Of course, the growing number of influential Silicon Valley voices supporting Trump — Sacks and Palihapitiya have their popular podcast, Musk has his an entire social media platform — are not representative of many of the area's wealthy inhabitants.

    For example, earlier this month, former Yahoo CEO Marissa Mayer and venture capitalist Vinod Khosla hosted fundraising events for Biden.

    Read the original article on Business Insider
  • 3 Australian shares to help secure your future

    Three people in a corporate office pour over a tablet, ready to invest.

    Australian shares have proven to be helpful wealth-builders over the long term. The ASX share market has returned an average return per annum of approximately 10% over the ultra-long term. That level of return can help secure anyone’s future – it doubles someone’s money in around eight years.

    I believe there are certain ASX stocks that can deliver returns even stronger than 10% per year following recent sell-offs.

    Owning businesses with both capital growth and dividend potential is compelling. The passive income rewards shareholders for holding shares during their ownership. Hence, I think the current valuations make the below Australian shares very appealing.

    Accent Group Ltd (ASX: AX1)

    Accent is an ASX retail share that distributes several global shoe brands in Australia, including Hoka, Kappa, Vans, Skechers, Henleys, Merrell, Dr Martens, and Ugg. The company also has its own brands, including The Athlete’s Foot, Stylerunner, Platypus, Nude Lucy, and Glue Store.

    The chart below shows that the Accent share price has dropped around 30% from April 2023.

    I think this is the right time to buy while investors are worried about factors like inflation, interest rates and retail spending. I view retail as a cyclical sector, so it’s good to pounce when conditions appear weak in the short term.

    Accent continues to expand its store network, which I believe will enable its earnings to bounce higher in a couple of years once households are able and willing to spend more on retail. A recovery could take two years (or more) because interest rates may take a while to be cut. Having a larger store network could mean more sales and greater scale benefits.

    According to the 2026 financial year forecast on Commsec, the Accent share price is valued at just 11x FY26’s estimated earnings with a possible grossed-up dividend yield of almost 11%.

    Universal Store Holdings Ltd (ASX: UNI)

    This Australian share owns a number of premium youth fashion brands including Universal Store, THRILLS, Worship and Perfect Stranger.

    It’s another ASX retail share where the valuation has declined. The Universal Store share price is more than 40% lower than it was in November 2021, as we can see on the chart below.

    There are three reasons why I think it’s a buy.

    First, its store count continues to grow, giving the company additional scale. In the first half of FY24, it added another six stores to its network, bringing the total network to 100 in Australia.

    Second, it is rolling out Perfect Stranger as a standalone retail format. This brand is growing quickly, and HY24 Perfect Stranger sales increased by 59.7% to $6.6 million.

    Third, the dividend is appealing. It has grown its dividend each year since 2021 and is projected to pay a grossed-up dividend yield of just under 10% in FY26, according to Commsec. It’s valued at around 10x FY26’s estimated earnings.

    Johns Lyng Group Ltd (ASX: JLG)

    This Australian share specialises in repairing and restoring buildings and contents after damage from events like storms, flooding, fire and so on. The company has a segment that provides catastrophe response services.

    This is another stock where the valuation looks much more appealing after a decline. Since February 2024, the Johns Lyng share price has fallen more than 20%, as shown on the chart below.

    The company’s core division continues to grow steadily in Australia and the US. In the HY24 result, the company reported its insurance building and restoration services (IB & RS) revenue increased 13.7% to $426.1 million, and the IB & RS ‘business as usual’ (BaU) earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) increased 28.1% to $55 million. I like seeing profit rise faster than revenue.

    Compounding earnings at a double-digit pace could see Johns Lyng make significantly more profit in three to five years.

    I’m also bullish about the business because it’s growing into adjacent areas that offer defensive earnings. For example, it’s acquiring strata management businesses, which could also unlock synergies with the core business.

    According to Commsec, the Johns Lyng share price is valued at around 22x FY26’s estimated earnings.

    The post 3 Australian shares to help secure your future appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Should you invest $1,000 in Accent Group Limited right now?

    Before you buy Accent Group Limited shares, consider this:

    Motley Fool investing expert Scott Phillips just revealed what he believes are the 5 best stocks for investors to buy right now… and Accent Group Limited wasn’t one of them.

    The online investing service he’s run for over a decade, Motley Fool Share Advisor, has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    And right now, Scott thinks there are 5 stocks that may be better buys…

    See The 5 Stocks
    *Returns as of 5 May 2024

    More reading

    Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has positions in Accent Group and Johns Lyng Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Johns Lyng Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Accent Group and Johns Lyng Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

  • Top ASX shares to buy in June 2024

    A happy looking woman holding a colourful umbrella against a grey cloudy sky.

    The month of June can be a great time to cast a critical eye over your ASX share portfolio and give it a bit of a shakeup if needed. The end of the financial year is almost upon us, which means the tax implications of shares bought and sold throughout the year will soon be realised.

    For those wishing to offset any capital gains made during FY24 by selling off some stock losers, now would be the time to start making these decisions.

    Furthermore, with the new financial year not far off, right now can be the perfect opportunity to revisit your investment goals, and sanity-check whether your ASX shares are measuring up.

    If you’re looking to bring in some new heavy hitters to your portfolio before FY24 draws to a close, you’ve come to the right place. Because we asked our Foolish writers which ASX shares they think look the most opportune in June!

    Here is what they told us:

    5 best ASX shares for June 2024 (smallest to largest)

    • Objective Corporation Ltd (ASX: OCL), $1.18 billion
    • Corporate Travel Management Ltd (ASX: CTD), $1.95 billion
    • Webjet Ltd (ASX: WEB), $3.43 billion
    • Qantas Airways Limited (ASX: QAN), $10.02 billion
    • Vanguard Australian Shares Index ETF (ASX: VAS), $14.81 billion

    (Market capitalisations as of market close 31 May 2024).

    Why our Foolish writers love these ASX stocks

    Objective Corporation Ltd

    What it does: If you work in the public sector, there’s a good chance your computer cursor has clicked through one of Objective’s software solutions before. Led by founder and CEO Tony Walls, the company offers software spanning content solutions, planning and building, and regulatory solutions.

    By Mitchell Lawler: I’ve been keeping tabs on Objective Corp for a while now. The long-serving software provider made it into my top 10 ASX shares to buy last year. However, I was a little apprehensive about its $14 price tag back then. 

    Since then, shares in Objective Corp have slipped 6.6% while net profit after tax (NPAT) has increased 23.8%. As a result, the company’s earnings multiple has compressed from 58 times to 44 – almost a 25% discount. 

    Even though a 44.77 times price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio may not seem cheap, I believe it’s enticing enough to take an initial position in what could be a longstanding compounder

    Walls appears firmly committed, holding roughly 66% of the company’s shares and not having sold a single one in more than 20 years. 

    Motley Fool contributor Mitchell Lawler does not own shares of Objective Corporation Ltd.

    Corporate Travel Management Ltd

    What it does: Corporate Travel Management provides travel services to business clients, helping them manage expenses and optimise staff travel. It has a presence in Australia, New Zealand, North America, Asia, and Europe.

    By Tristan Harrison: I recently invested in this S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) stock, and it’s my pick this month due to its planned growth over the next five years.

    Corporate Travel is a global leader in the travel industry and expects to continue growing market share over the coming years. In its FY24 half-year result, the company said it aimed to win new clients and bring in an additional $1 billion of new total transaction value (TTV) each year. Its target by FY29 is to attract $1.6 billion of new client work per year.

    The ASX 200 stock aims to grow revenue by at least 10% per annum over the next five years, largely thanks to the new client wins. On the expense side, “key projects” are expected to deliver cost savings, so it’s targeting cost growth of just 5% per annum.

    With revenue expected to increase faster than costs, the company is predicting earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) to climb at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15% over the next five years. This, in my opinion, indicates exciting potential.

    Corporate Travel is also actively pursuing acquisitions, recently noting that some of its competitors are “highly leveraged with debt” hungover from battling to survive the Covid years. Any deals should “add further growth, shareholder value and economies of scale” and will be in addition to the existing five-year growth plan.

    Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison owns shares of Corporate Travel Management Ltd.

    Webjet Ltd

    What it does: Webjet’s business-to-consumer (B2C) business provides travel bookings to locations across the world via its online travel agent, OTA. The company’s business-to-business (B2B) operation, WebBeds, acts as an intermediary between hotels and retail travel service providers.

    By Bernd Struben: The Webjet share price has surged 34.40% over the past six months. Yet shares are still trading 18% below the pre-Covid levels of January 2020.

    Judging by the company’s full-year results for the 12 months to 31 March this year, I believe those pre-pandemic prices could be matched, or even exceeded, in the months ahead. And that could also usher in the return of the Webjet dividend, which has been suspended since early 2020.

    Highlights of Webjet’s latest results included a 29% year-on-year increase in revenue to $472 million. And underlying net profit after tax (NPAT) surged 83% to $128 million.

    The company is also considering a demerger and separately listing its two travel divisions, WebBeds and Webjet B2C. The board noted the potential of “significant value enhancement” through a separation of its two leading business brands.

    As for the balance sheet, Webjet had $630 million in cash as at 31 March.

    Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben does not own shares of Webjet Ltd.

    Qantas Airways Limited

    What it does: Qantas is Australia’s flag carrier airline and the company behind two complementary airline brands — Qantas and Jetstar. It also operates the Qantas Freight business and the lucrative Qantas Frequent Flyer program.

    By James Mickleboro: I think Qantas shares could be a great option for investors in June. This is because I believe the airline operator’s shares are still severely undervalued at current levels despite a recent rebound. The Qantas share price was trading at $6.15 at the close on Friday.

    For example, Qantas’ current market capitalisation is still slightly below pre-COVID levels. Yet the company is forecast to deliver earnings that are 50% higher than what it achieved prior to the pandemic. And this isn’t expected to be a one-off. Goldman Sachs believes Qantas’ earnings are structurally stronger now, thanks to its cost reduction program.

    But the good news doesn’t stop there. The broker believes the Qantas dividend will return at long last in FY 2025. Goldman is forecasting a 30 cents per share dividend, which equates to a 5% yield.

    The broker currently has a buy rating and $8.05 price target on Qantas shares.

    Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro does not own shares of Qantas Airways Limited.

    Vanguard Australian Shares Index ETF

    What it does: The Vanguard Australian Shares ETF is an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that has the distinction of also being the most popular index fund on the ASX. It offers exposure to the largest 300 ASX shares on our stock market, weighted by market capitalisation. 

    By Sebastian Bowen: May saw the ASX plagued by volatility and uncertainty, resulting in a bumpy ride for investors. With geopolitical concerns, economic turmoil in the form of higher inflation, and the possibility of more interest rate hikes set to continue in June, I think this index fund is a sensible choice right now.

    VAS is the kind of investment that I like to opt for when it’s difficult to find an ASX share at the right price. It has always historically offered a modest but consistent return, as well as decent dividend income (and franking credit) potential. While we should never bank on past returns, I have great confidence that an investment in this ETF today won’t be regretted down the road.

    Considering the diversification built into VAS units as well (thanks to its 300 underlying holdings), this is the investment I’m most likely to top up on this month.

    Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen owns units of the Vanguard Australian Shares Index ETF.

    The post Top ASX shares to buy in June 2024 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Should you invest $1,000 in Corporate Travel Management Limited right now?

    Before you buy Corporate Travel Management Limited shares, consider this:

    Motley Fool investing expert Scott Phillips just revealed what he believes are the 5 best stocks for investors to buy right now… and Corporate Travel Management Limited wasn’t one of them.

    The online investing service he’s run for over a decade, Motley Fool Share Advisor, has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    And right now, Scott thinks there are 5 stocks that may be better buys…

    See The 5 Stocks
    *Returns as of 5 May 2024

    More reading

    The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Corporate Travel Management, Goldman Sachs Group, and Objective. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Corporate Travel Management. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Objective. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

  • The Kremlin is accused of waging a ‘shadow war’ against the West with incidents of Russian sabotage on the rise

    The shadows of Russian soldiers are seen on the ground as they march at the Red Square
    The shadows of Russian soldiers are seen on the ground as they march at the Red Square during the Victory Day military parade general rehearsal in Moscow.

    • The Kremlin is accused of waging a "shadow war" against the West amid Russian sabotage incidents.
    • The sabotage spree has been ongoing for years but has escalated since Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
    • Frequent targets include weapons facilities and other infrastructure aiding Ukrainian forces.

    In the wee hours of Sunday, May 12, a fire broke out at the Marywilska 44 shopping center, one of Poland's largest. The conflagration ultimately destroyed 80% of the complex, which housed 1,400 shops and outlets.

    This week, Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated that it is "quite likely — that the Russian services had something to do with the Marywilska fire." 

    If true, the loss of a Polish shopping center by means of Russian arson would be shocking on its own. When viewed as one pixel in a larger picture of a sustained sabotage campaign against Western targets, the scale of the problem comes into focus.

    After the fire, Poland arrested and indicted nine Russians alleged to have been involved in "beatings, arson, and attempted arson," including foiled plots to commit arson at a paint factory in the Polish city of Wroclaw and plans to set an Ikea in Lithuania ablaze.

    Russia's shadow war against the West is no joke

    A man looks on next to a giant national flag of Russia in Moscow, Russia June 26, 2023.
    A man looks on next to a giant national flag of Russia in Moscow.

    Estonia's Prime Minister Kaja Kallas stated this week that likely ongoing sabotage operations are part of a Russian "shadow war" being actively waged against the West. Estonia would know having arrested 10 people believed to have committed acts of sabotage on behalf of Russia in February.

    As NATO advances toward the July summit, it's become clear that more comprehensive discussions on addressing the Russian sabotage campaign must take place. The problem has been around for at least a decade; the pace of attacks, however, seems to have dramatically quickened.

    Some of the earliest identified acts of Russian sabotage occurred in 2014 at ammunition depots in the Czech Republic killing two and causing $42.5 million in damage. In April, Czechia police published the results of their decadelong investigation, concluding, "The police authority considers it proven that the explosions of the two warehouses in Vrbětice were carried out by members of the Russian military intelligence."

    Not long after, in 2015, Russia is believed set off explosions and fires at Bulgaria's largest armaments factory. More recently in 2022 and 2023, Russia is thought to have once again targeted the warehouses of Bulgarian defense manufacturers. Bulgaria has played a crucial role in supplying ammunition and shells to Ukrainian forces, especially in the early stages of the war.

    An American flag was painted on the wall of the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant next to cylinders used to make shells.
    An American flag was painted on the wall of the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant next to cylinders used to make shells.

    Closer to home, last month, a fire broke out at the Scranton Army ammunition plant in Pennsylvania, which produces steel tubes for 155mm and 105mm artillery rounds, among other munitions. Just two days later, explosions occurred at a BAE Systems munitions plant in the United Kingdom.

    Investigations into both these incidents remain ongoing; either, however, would fit the Russian modus operandi.

    Considering recent trends, one could also be forgiven for looking askance at the multiple fires that broke out in just one week at Denmark's Novo Nordisk. The company, better known as the maker of the diabetes and weight loss drug Ozempic, also happens to be Europe's most valuable.

    Even putting these incidents aside, there are plenty of proven reasons to be suspicious. Indeed, the day after the BAE plant explosion, German authorities arrested two Russian-German would-be saboteurs, believed to be plotting attacks against bases, including Grafenwoehr, where the Ukrainian forces are trained to operate the American Abrams tanks.

    A US Army M1A1 Abrams tank, photographed with mine roller mounted
    In Grafenwoehr, the US Army trains members of the Ukrainian armed forces for use on the American M1A1 Abrams tank.

    Weapons and training facilities aiding Ukrainian forces are frequent targets. Norwegian authorities recently noted an increase in the threat of sabotage against arms deliveries to Ukraine, alongside a resident threat to the Norwegian energy sector.

    Energy is another favored target. Russia was certainly a party to the sabotage of the Baltic Interconnector pipeline last October. This week, construction workers near Bellheim, Germany, stumbled upon a cache of explosives and detonators intentionally buried nearby pipelines that form a portion of the NATO Pipeline System.

    Transportation links are also in the crosshairs. The Czech transport Minister accused Russia last month of "trying to sabotage European railways" with "thousands of attempts to weaken our systems." A series of Swedish train derailments may be one example.

    Another is the October 2022 attacks on German rail operator Deutsche Bahn (DB). Investigators suspect Russia was behind the sabotage of critical cables, which brought rail traffic to a three-hour standstill. In the event of future conflict, perched atop Germany's central location in Europe, DB would be one of the most important actors, moving NATO tanks, trucks, and troops.

    A container is loaded onto a special train bringing aid supplies to Ukraine, at the BEHALA container terminal in Berlin
    A container is loaded onto a special train at the BEHALA container terminal in Berlin, as part of German rail operator Deutsche Bahn's operation to deliver aid to Ukraine.

    Russia has also sought out more prosaic but no less critical targets. Take for instance, hackers closely tied to the Kremlin who claimed credit for hacking municipal water systems in the US and Poland as well as a water mill in France.

    These incidents are very likely merely the tip of the iceberg and paint a picture of a sabotage spree gaining momentum.

    Russia sees itself as at war with the West and believes that it can pummel with impunity so long as its aggression stays under a certain threshold.

    NATO leaders gathering this summer in Washington may want to mark the alliance's 75th anniversary and focus on bolstering additional support for Ukraine. They are quickly learning, however, that Russia's hybrid aggression, most vividly elucidated in a brazen ongoing sabotage spree, will be sharing center stage.

    Daniel Kochis is a senior fellow at the Center on Europe and Eurasia at Hudson Institute. He specializes in transatlantic security issues and regularly publishes on United States policy in Europe, NATO, Baltic, and Nordic dimensions of collective defense and Arctic issues. The opinions expressed in this article are the author's own. 

    Read the original article on Business Insider
  • iPhone 15 review: After long-term testing, we conclude it’s the top iPhone for most people

    When you buy through our links, Business Insider may earn an affiliate commission. Learn more

    Two images of the iPhone 15 side-by-side showing the front and rear.
    The iPhone 15 offers the best enhancements to the standard iPhone in several generations.

    Most new iPhone releases offer incremental upgrades, but after testing and using the iPhone 15 over the months since its release, its upgrades are clearly more substantial. It might not look like it from the outside, but the iPhone 15 represents one of Apple's biggest updates to the base iPhone since the iPhone 12 from 2020. 

    More so than any base iPhone in recent memory, the iPhone 15 doesn't make you feel like you're missing out by not buying the Pro version. It dips its toes in the exclusive waters of Apple's iPhone Pro models with more trickle-down features than we've seen before, like a high-megapixel camera, Dynamic Island, and super-bright displays that can handle the sunniest days. And, the iPhone 15 heralds a subtly refreshed design, which we haven't seen in three generations, as well as a USB-C port that brings Apple's ecosystem of devices closer to harmony for charging. 

    To be sure, the iPhone 15 Pro models are technologically superior, and Apple is keeping a clear distinction between its base and Pro models. Though the iPhone 15 comes with major upgrades, it might still not be enough for those who typically go for the iPhone Pros. The iPhone 15's display still runs at a 60Hz refresh rate that's becoming stale and outdated in 2024. And only the iPhone 15 Pro models receive Apple's latest iPhone processor, the new Action Button, and a dedicated zoom camera. 

    Still, the iPhone 15 is a darn good phone for most people, and considering all its upgrades relative to its price, it's the best iPhone we've seen in years.

    Performance and display: A powerful processor that's still matched with a dated screen

    Whichever way you look at it, the iPhone 15, running on Apple's A16 Bionic processor, is a powerful and fast phone. Sure, it's not as powerful as the iPhone 15 Pro models running on the newer A17 Pro, but it's still a generational leap over the iPhone 14, which ran on the iPhone 13 Pro's A15 Bionic processor. 

    The Apple iPhone 15 in yellow held in a hand at a slight angle showing the right edge and display.
    The iPhone 15's 60Hz display doesn't do justice to its performance.

    In everyday use, during the iPhone 15's first year and perhaps its second, you're not going to notice much of a difference whether you're comparing it to the iPhone 15 Pro models or the iPhone 14 (and the iPhone 13 series, for that matter). The iPhone 15's performance gap between the iPhone 15 Pro and iPhone 14 will perceivably widen over the years when iOS and apps become more advanced.

    Benchmark test results suggest the iPhone 15 Pro could last a year longer than the iPhone 15 before apps start to take longer than you'd like to open and run. The same is true for the iPhone 15, which should last a year longer than the iPhone 14. 

    It's a shame the iPhone 15's power isn't mated with a 120Hz display — it would accentuate the phone's performance with smoother animations. It's not a dealbreaker by any means, and it doesn't hold you back, but my eyebrows raise higher and higher with every new iPhone release that still has a 60Hz display. 

    A person using their fingers to test the scroll speed on two different iPhones.
    The iPhone 15 has the same 60Hz refresh rate as the iPhone 14 (left). The iPhone 15 Pro displays can reach 120Hz, like the iPhone 14 Pro (right), which is much smoother.

    I could argue that a smooth 120Hz refresh rate is a standard expectation on phones these days, especially those starting at $800. Android phones have had 120Hz displays since 2020, starting with the Samsung Galaxy S20 series. And thinking about the $500 Pixel 8a with a 120Hz display, I'd even expect high refresh rates at lower price ranges. With that in mind, the iPhone 15's 60Hz display makes it feel dated.

    The iPhone 15's simple 60Hz display also means it doesn't support an always-on display, which is another convenient feature reserved for the iPhone 15 Pro series. 

    Still, the iPhone 15's brighter display is an unmistakable improvement, as it's noticeably brighter than previous generation base iPhones for better outdoor viewing on sunny days. Colors, especially, pop   

    Design: A subtle leap

    The top right corner of the iPhone 15, showcasing Apple's softer edges.
    The iPhone 15 has softer edges than the last three iPhones.

    The iPhone 15 is slightly more comfortable and forgiving in the hand thanks to subtly softer edges compared to the harsher and sharper edges introduced with the iPhone 12 series through to the iPhone 14 series. It still looks like a modern iPhone with its flat edges, and not like the iPhone 11 and earlier generations with the fully rounded sides.

    The rear glass on the iPhone 15 has a smooth, frosted matte texture compared to the clear glass from previous base iPhone generations. Whether you like the aesthetics is up to you (I personally prefer it), but it's undeniably less grippy than clear glass. As a result, it's easier to adjust the iPhone 15 in your hand, especially one-handed. Despite less grip, I never felt like the phone was more likely to stumble out of my hands.

    Having said all this, none of it will matter much if you typically use a case. 

    Colors are subjective, and Apple went with a pastel variety of blue, pink, yellow, green, and black.

    'Pro' features: Dynamic Island, but no Action Button

    Apple's Dynamic Island, a feature introduced with the iPhone 14 series and reserved for the iPhone 14 Pro models, has trickled down to the base iPhone 15. Dynamic Island delivers a nice boost in functionality — it's a clever way to view and interact with notifications, alerts, and app shortcuts without covering the entire screen, and it's proven useful whether you're actively doing something on the phone or not. 

    Two side-by-side photos showing Apple's Dynamic Island on the iPhone 15.
    Apple's Dynamic Island has trickled down from the iPhone 14 Pro to the iPhone 15.

    Apple's latest functional convenience upgrade, the Action Button, didn't make it to the base iPhone 15 and is reserved for the iPhone 15 Pro models. For reference, the Action Button replaces the signature silent switch and offers customizable functions, like toggling the flashlight, opening the camera app, switching focus modes, and, yes, enabling silent mode. 

    Cameras: 'Pro' quality trickles down

    Since Apple released the iPhone 6s in 2015, most standard iPhones have had 12MP main cameras. The iPhone 15 introduced the biggest upgrade to the base iPhone camera since then with a 48MP camera, which was first introduced with the iPhone 14 Pro models. It's not exactly the same camera as the iPhone 14 Pro, but it's still a nice trickle-down feature that comes with some benefits.

    A photo of a barn taken on a sunny day with the Apple iPhone 15's main camera.
    The iPhone 15 takes reliably excellent photos.

    One of those benefits is capturing more detail. It's not perceivable when you're casually flicking through photos, but it does let you zoom farther into a photo after it's been taken to reveal clearer details.

    Here's a 12MP photo compared to a 48MP when fully zoomed out, showing the entire photo's contents on a screen. Apart from the cat in the 12MP, the photos are basically identical in quality:

    Side-by-side photos of a cherub statue showing the differences between a 12MP and 48MP photo taken with the iPhone 15's main camera.
    A 12MP photo (left) compared to a 48MP photo (right). There isn't much difference when viewing the full image on a screen.

    Here's the same 12MP and 48MP photos zoomed in to show the cherub's details:

    Side-by-side photos of a cherub statue showing the differences between a 12MP and 48MP photo taken with the iPhone 15's main camera.
    A 12MP photo (left) compared to a 48MP photo (right). The 48MP photo has noticeably more detail when you zoom in.

    To save your iPhone's storage space, the iPhone 15 takes 24MP photos by default, which is a happy medium between 12MP and 48MP. It captures visibly more detail than a 12MP photo while using up significantly less storage:

    Side-by-side photos of a cherub statue showing the differences between a 12MP and 24MP photo taken with the iPhone 15's main camera.
    A 12MP photo (left) compared to a 24MP photo (right). The default 24MP is the perfect happy medium that offers plenty of detail and manageable photo size.

    Another benefit of the iPhone 15's 48MP camera is that it enables 2x zoom shots at 12MP with optical quality, and without the quality degradation from digital zooming. Essentially, it crops a quarter of the camera's sensor from the center, resulting in a photo that appears to be 2x zoomed when expanded on a screen.

    Here's a photo taken with the iPhone 15's main camera with no zoom:

    A photo of a typical town setting taken by the iPhone 15's main camera.
    A photo taken with the iPhone 15's main camera at the standard 1x.

    And here's a photo taken with the iPhone 15's main camera at 2x zoom: 

    A photo of a typical town setting taken by the iPhone 15's main camera with 2x zoom.
    A photo taken with the iPhone 15's main camera at 2x zoom.

    iPhone 15 photos follow Apple's signature safe and solid approach, which produces reliably excellent photos with well-balanced lighting, contrast, and colors. But, as with most phones, generational camera improvements only become apparent the older your current model is.

    In low light, the iPhone 15 takes noticeably sharper photos than the iPhone 14, despite the fact that the iPhone 15's photos were taken at the same 12MP resolution as the iPhone 14. Improved sharpness was expected thanks to the iPhone 15's larger sensor that can capture more light. However, it didn't result in faster night shots — both phones prompted us to stay still for three seconds to take the test shots. 

    A photo of a fire station taken at night with the iPhone 15's main camera.
    Night Mode photos have improved relative to previous generations thanks to the iPhone 15's enhanced sensor.

    The iPhone 15 records video up to 4K resolution at 60 frames per second, and video quality is reliably excellent, so there's no major upgrade here. However, the iPhone 15's larger 48MP sensor affords up to 6x digital zooming compared to the iPhone 14's 3x, and zoomed footage at any range looks significantly better as a result. 

    Battery life and charging: USB-C brings harmony, but not faster charging speeds

    The iPhone 15's battery life is comparable with that of the iPhone 14 and the iPhone 15 Pro, which is to say, it's very good and expected for a phone with a 6.1-inch display. If you already have experience with phones that have a similar display size, you'll find the iPhone 15 will provide similar battery life relative to your typical daily usage. Compared to an older phone with a battery that's degraded over time, the iPhone 15's battery life will be refreshing.

    It won't change any daily charging habits you've built up over time based on your typical usage — only the iPhone 15 Plus and iPhone 15 Pro Max have the potential to do that with their larger batteries and stunning battery lives.   

    So, nothing new with battery life, but the way you charge the iPhone 15's battery, at least with a cable, has dramatically changed with the new USB-C port that replaced the Lightning port. 

    The move is a triumph for some, as it standardizes the cables you'd need for electronics. USB-C is the common standard for nearly everything with a rechargeable battery these days, from laptops, tablets, and wireless headphones to kids' toys. It also opens up a wider variety of accessories to the iPhone 15 that were previously more limited or unavailable due to the Lightning port. And a nice little party trick — you can charge another iPhone, or your own, with another iPhone with a USB-C-to-USB-C cable.

    The iPhone 15's USB-C port on the bottom edge.
    The iPhone 15 joins Apple's Mac laptops, iPads, and newer AirPods with USB-C ports for charging.

    The iPhone 15 doesn't come with a charger, but it does come with a USB-C cable. Those celebrating the move to USB-C likely already have chargers they can use, even if they're not specifically designed for the iPhone — any USB-C charger that supports at least 25W will fully support the iPhone 15's charging speeds.

    For others who are fully entrenched in the Lightning ecosystem, this change potentially means buying new cables, chargers, and adapters. And unless you already own USB-C accessories, the new port will be more of an inconvenience for those who have been living in a Lightning-only world.

    Either way, iPhones moving to USB-C or perhaps a different standard altogether was only a matter of time, even if Apple was forced to do so. The inconvenience is also only temporary, just as it was when Apple introduced Lightning to replace the 30-pin connector with the iPhone 5. 

    Technologically, the base iPhone 15's move to USB-C offers little advantage over Lightning. Charging speeds aren't notably faster, and it handles the same USB 2 speeds as Lightning. Only the iPhone 15 Pro models support USB 3 for significantly faster data transfers. It's a shame, as the USB-C port has more to offer than what's given in the base iPhone 15. 

    Should you buy the iPhone 15?

    Four images of various parts of the iPhone 15, including the USB-C port, softer edges, cameras, and Dynamic Island.
    The iPhone 15 has several considerable updates that make it a worthwhile upgrade.

    The iPhone 15 is a clear choice for anyone looking for a solid, simple phone that easily and effectively covers the basics that most people need, whether they're entrenched in the Apple ecosystem or not. Anyone who consistently picks base iPhone models instead of Pro models should be very happy with the iPhone 15.

    While the base iPhone 15 has inherited several iPhone Pro features, the 60Hz display, dual-lens camera, and previous-generation processor won't lure iPhone Pro users to the base model. However, they should still satisfy most people's daily needs. And, iPhone Pro users looking to spend less will find more value than ever in the iPhone 15. 

    As an upgrade option, the iPhone 15 and its considerable array of new features especially reward those with older iPhones, like the iPhone 12 and older. Those who recently spent good money on a more recent model, like the iPhone 13 or iPhone 14, may also feel the iPhone 15's pull — with a good trade-in deal, the justification to upgrade is there, especially considering trade-in deals tend to be more favorable if your current model is more recent. 

    With that said, I'm not saying you need to update to the iPhone 15, even if you have an older iPhone. The iPhone 15 still delivers a very familiar everyday experience, and you shouldn't expect a major change in how you use your phone. Rather, the iPhone 15 gives you more reason to upgrade than the last two generations. 

    In addition, the next iPhone release (iPhone 16) is cresting over the horizon at the time of writing, with a likely announcement in September. If you haven't picked up the iPhone 15 yet or don't need a new phone immediately, you can easily justify waiting less than half a year for the next release. It's possible Apple could add more trickled-down features to the iPhone 16 — the Action Button and faster USB-C, for example — and the iPhone 15 will get a predictable price cut, so it may be worth waiting if you can. But you won't go wrong getting the iPhone 15 now. 

    If the iPhone 15 suits your needs, check our guides to the best iPhone 15 cases and best iPhone 15 screen protectors to guard the phone from damage and ensure its longevity. 

    Read the original article on Business Insider
  • Sometimes to save the internet, you must eat glue

    glue mixed in sauce with woman's face eating pizza
    Adding glue to pizza sauce helps the cheese not slide off, Google AI had said. Now, the company is pulling back on its AI answers — and I can't help but feel like I should take some of the credit.

    • Google is scaling back its AI answers after bad answers went viral.
    • Last week, I made a pizza with glue  — and ate it — because Google AI search told me to.
    • Am I the hero? Who can say.  

    I'm not one to casually toss around the H-word, but, sure, you can say it: I'm a hero.

    On Thursday, Google accounted in a blog post that it would be scaling back the AI search results it had rolled out the week prior to somewhat disastrous and hilarious ends. For example, its Google AI Overviews results suggested that it was good to eat one rock per day (which was presented seriously but was actually based on an article from The Onion), that Barack Obama was the first gay president, and that the way to keep the cheese from sliding off your pizza was to add 1/8 of a cup of glue to the sauce.

    The glue pizza search result was traced back to a comment from a Redditor who went by "fucksmith" making an obvious joke on the subreddit r/Pizza.

    Because I'm both brave and a genius, naturally, I had to try to make the glue pizza myself.

    pizza ingredients
    I made a homemade pizza with a special ingredient — glue! — as suggested by AI.

    Now, Liz Reid, the head of search at Google, wrote in Thursday's blog post that Google will limit the use of satirical content in its AI-generated search results (no more answers from The Onion, for instance). It will also limit its use of user-generated content for AI-generated advice (being more careful with answers from Reddit, whose content Google is paying $60 million a year for, according to reports).

    There was a whole lot of attention paid in the past week about how bad many of these AI-generated search results were — particularly because they were wacky and funny. Was Google's response to tamp down its big AI search ambitions just because a few jokesters on X made silly queries? Maybe.

    Could it be because Google took the feedback seriously and realized that there were use cases they hadn't expected and they needed to retool based on this new information? Maybe.

    Could it be a combination of those two things — that a small minority of trolls abusing the system for laughs revealed some serious flaws and dangers of putting AI in search results? That it wasn't just a PR disaster for a week but made Google seriously rethink the safety of the AI Overviews product and what it would actually be used for? Most likely.

    But let's not overlook one crucial factor here: ME! I actually ate the glue pizza. (It did not taste good, and please do not do this at home).

    In my dreams, I like to believe that Google CEO Sundar Pichai saw a picture of my gaping maw ingesting polyvinyl acetate and cheese, fell to his knees, and cried out, "What have I done?!?" Sacrificing my palate and the equilibrium of microplastics in my bloodstream was not in vain or merely for clicks; it slowed the steamroller of AI that is destroying all that we loved about the old internet.

    The ridiculousness of those AI answers does call into question the entire concept of using AI for Google search results.

    What is the point of it — these AI-generated results, the idea that you should "let Google do the Googling for you" — instead of using your own judgment to pick the link that looks like it has the best answer? As Max Read writes, "It is possible I am in a minority here, but speaking for myself I want to see a selection of different possible results and use the brain my ancestors spent hundreds of millions of years evolving to determine the context, tone, and intent."

    Similarly, for New York Magazine, John Herrman points out that humans have become pretty good at parsing Google results on their own: "Understanding that you'll encounter some nonsense, scams, jokes, and ads on the way to finding what you're looking for, or realizing that you won't, is part of the job of using Google. By attempting to automate this job, Google has revealed — and maybe discovered — just how hard it is and how alien its understanding of its own users has become."

    I don't necessarily think that AI search results are a terrible idea and will never be good. I believe Google when it says that most people, most of the time, have enjoyed AI search results. That's mostly been my experience, too.

    The fact that Google rolled this out with such easily exploitable flaws? That was bad. But fixing it? That's good. And I like to convince myself that my eating glue pizza was part of the noise that prompted Google to act.

    Please, please … I don't need your thanks. I'm just doing my job! As they say, not all heroes wear capes. Some just eat glue.

    Read the original article on Business Insider
  • Millennials having fewer kids could be a drag on the economy for the next decade

    babies swimming
    Toddlers explore the water with their mothers during a swimming class for babies at Lane Cove pool February 16, 2007 in Sydney, Australia.

    • America's shrinking birthrate is a problem.
    • Millennials not having enough babies could crimp growth by 1-2 percentage points a year.
    • At the current trajectory, that's set to weigh on the economy for the next decade or more.

    Millennials aren't having as many kids as previous generations, and that fact could end up dragging down economic growth for more than a decade.

    That may not faze some child-free millennials, who are using the money that would have been spent on childcare to splurge on lavish vacations, flashy boats, and other luxuries popular among DINKs — couples who live on double-income, with no kids.

    But that kind of spending won't be enough to offset the drag of a shrinking population on the economy over the long run, especially considering that the US birthrate has collapsed over the last half-century, economists told Business Insider.

    In 2022, there were just 11.1 births per every 1,000 people, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That's a 53% plunge from what was recorded in 1960, when there were 23.7 births per every 1,000 people.

    The shortage of babies has been particularly acute since the pandemic, according to James Pomeroy, HSBC's global economist. The national birthrate is now dropping around 2% each year, he estimated — and it didn't pick up in 2023, like experts originally expected.

    That puts the US at risk of seeing "extremely low" population levels over the long run, not unlike countries like China, where the population decline is so dire the government is doling out cash to convince people to have more kids. 

    "What you're talking about is these birth rates dropping very, very low levels, which over the course of time has huge impacts on the economy," Pomeroy said. "And then by the time you get to 2030, you're talking about a birth rate that is wildly different to what was in the assumptions made at the beginning of the decade."

    The impact of millennials having fewer kids will likely be worse than the impact of aging boomers — and the most dire consequences could come 10-15 years from now, Pomeroy estimated. He pointed to Japan, which had a similar birth rate in the 1990s as the US does now. Its economy saw the "worst bit" of growth around a decade later, when its workforce dwindled and the nation posted several years of negative GDP growth.

    The shrinking birthrate in the US could drag down GDP by 1-2 percentage points each year, according to Todd Buchholz, a former White House economist. Over several decades, that's the equivalent of slashing the US growth rate by a third, he estimated, or wiping out the estimated productivity increases stemming from artificial intelligence. In the worst-case scenario, GDP growth could nosedive 3-4 percentage points, Pomeroy warned. 

    Fewer Americans being born means fewer workers in the economy. 

    "You find it more difficult to find somebody to cut your hair, do your nails work on, set up the x-ray machines at the hospital," he said. "So the sheer decrease in the number of people … becomes a problem."

    Declining fertility rates also mean it will be harder to bear the brunt of Social Security payments, particularly as boomers age into retirement. Baby boomers are estimated to exert "peak burden" on the US economy in 2029, which is when all boomers will be 65 or older.

    "We will have a great deal of trouble … figuring out how to pay the retirements. The promised retirement payments for senior citizens — Medicare and Social Security — are going to go in vast deficits," Buchholz added.

    If the birthrate doesn't increase soon, he estimates there will eventually be two full-time workers for every retiree, down from around 20 workers per retiree in the 1930s. 

    "That is simply not sustainable," he said.

    Downward spiral

    It's hard to convince people to have kids. 

    Once the birthrate in an advanced economy starts to decline, it generally continues to do so, Pomeroy and Buchholz both noted. That's been the case for China and Russia, two countries that dealt with low birth rates for decades, and are now hobbled by demographic issues. 

    Government policies that support those who have children could be one way to boost the birthrate — or at least, prevent it from falling further. Boosting the supply of available homes, which can push down sky-high housing costs, will also help, Pomeroy said, though that will likely take decades to build enough inventory to meet demand. 

    The most important thing to encourage people to have more kids might be a cultural shift in how we talk about children, Buchholz says. He pointed to the chatter among millennials about how much money you can save by going child-free — around half a million dollars, according to one CNBC analysis.

    In the US, mounting costs for everything from shelter to healthcare to education weigh on younger generations' decision to have kids. On top of that, existential uncertainties stemming from things like the climate crisis to technological upheavals like artificial intelligence don't make the decision any easier. 

    "I think it's a net negative to have fewer children when the choice is between having a child and investing in a new Sony PlayStation," Buchholz told Business Insider. "Now it seems crude, vulgar, and inhumane to admit that people do, but people will openly say, having a child is expensive."

    Many DINK couples say they don't regret their lifestyle choices — much to the vexation of their critics – but that blasé attitude could be the very problem itself, Buchholz speculated.

    "'At the end of my life, I was surrounded by a machine tethering me to oxygen, a nurse, and a lawyer.' That seems like a very dreary way to end life," Buchholz said. "And so I think the narrative has to change. So it's not about the fear of missing out and only being able to live once. People who have children feel that they live more than once."

    This story was originally published in February 2024.

    Read the original article on Business Insider