Author: openjargon

AMP Ltd (ASX: AMP) shares are lower amid new figures from the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) showing an 18.1% surge in superannuation benefit payments over the past year.

AMP is one of Australia’s largest retail superannuation fund providers with $111 billion in assets under management (AUM) as of 30 June 2023. The largest provider is AustralianSuper with $300 billion AUM.

The AMP share price is currently $1.10, down 0.9% for the day and up 0.92% over the past 12 months.

There’s no news out of AMP today. Let’s take a look at these APRA numbers and the rising industrywide trend in higher outflows as more baby boomers enter retirement.

Superannuation outflows grow as more baby boomers retire

The APRA data shows greater growth in superannuation outflows than inflows over the 12 months to 31 March 2024.

This is despite an increase in the Superannuation Guarantee — the percentage of wages employers must pay into their workers’ superannuation funds — from 10.5% in FY23 to 11% from 1 July 2023.

In the year to 31 March 2024, $112.9 billion was paid out to superannuation holders, up 18.1% on the $95.6 billion paid out during the year to 31 March 2023.

Inflows in the year to March 2024 totalled $177 billion, up 11.3% on the year to March 2023.

Lump sums and pension payments rise

According to APRA, the bump in outflows represents increased lump sum and pension payments:

This increase was the result of lump sum payments rising by 18.4 per cent to $63.0 billion and pension payments increasing by 17.7 per cent to $49.8 billion.

A separate report by KPMG shows five of Australia’s 13 biggest retail superannuation funds managing assets valued above $50 billion recorded negative net cash flow ratios in FY23.

According to the Australian Financial Review (AFR) today, Mercer, Colonial First State, AMP, BT and Insignia Financial Ltd (ASX: IFL) had combined net outflows of $10.6 billion in FY23.

KPMG partner Linda Elkins told the AFR this represented the start of a “wave” of outflows coming for industry funds.

But she added that the point at which the retirement savings sector’s outflows would outweigh inflows was “not imminent”.

BT had the greatest negative cash flow ratio of the 13 major funds at -5%, followed by AMP at -2.6%.

Meantime, Hostplus, AustralianSuper and REST had the highest growth in cash flow ratios at more than 5% each.

Among the smaller superannuation funds, Hub24 Ltd (ASX: HUB) and Netwealth Group Ltd (ASX: NWL) recorded the highest net cash flow ratio growth at 26.7% and 15.1%, respectively.

AMP shares fell last month after the company released its first-quarter update in which CEO Alexis George noted improvements in the company’s superannuation and investments net cash outflows.

According to the KPMG report:

Insignia, AMP, CFS and Mercer have again experienced net outflows, however they have gained traction from FY22 and decreased the rate of net outflows.

This appears to have been achieved by stemming the flow of rollovers out and focusing on the core aspects of their offerings such as fees and performance.

More people investing in superannuation

The APRA data also shows that more people are voluntarily ploughing money into their superannuation.

Member contributions via salary-sacrificing arrangements or personal contributions totalled $43.7 billion over the year, up 8.2%. Employer contributions totalled $133.3 billion, up 12.4%.

Total superannuation assets in the year to March 2024 totalled $3,862.1 billion, up 11.3% on March 2023. APRA said this growth was due to continued strong contribution inflows and an average 10.9% return on investments.

A recent survey by Findex found that 24% of Australians consider superannuation the most important type of investment for building lifetime wealth.

Older cohorts value it most, with about 40% of baby boomers and 29% of Gen Xers ranking it their no. 1 investment option.

Findex investment relations head Matthew Swieconek offers five key investment actions for Baby Boomers and Gen Xers to take today for an excellent future retirement.

Another recent report found most Australians overestimate how much they need to retire comfortably.

Meantime, my colleague Tristan recently reported on whether AMP shares are a significantly underrated buying opportunity right now.

The post AMP shares lower amid industry ‘wave’ of superannuation payouts to baby boomers appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Are AMP shares a significantly underrated buy right now?
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Here is the dividend forecast to 2026 for AMP shares
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Why AMP says interest rates won’t rise next week

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Hub24 and Netwealth Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Netwealth Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Hub24. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The Netwealth Group Ltd (ASX: NWL) share price has jumped over 50% in the past year, as shown on the chart below. The company has demonstrated its ability to deliver capital growth and dividend income.

The company provides a platform that enables financial intermediaries and clients to invest and manage a wide array of domestic and international products.

Netwealth’s offering includes non-custodial administration and reporting services, self-managed superannuation fund (SMSF) administration, managed funds, managed accounts, investor-directed portfolio services, and superannuation products.

The company has achieved earnings growth since it was listed in late 2017, which has enabled excellent dividend growth.

Growing dividends

Netwealth has grown its annual dividend every year since it first started paying one in 2018, which is a commendable record.

The 2023 financial year saw the annual payout increase by 20% to 24 cents per share. The FY23 annual dividend was around double the size of the FY19 payout of 12.1 cents per share.

Netwealth’s excellent dividend growth has continued in FY24, with the interim dividend hiked by 27% year over year.

The last two declared dividends come to 27 cents per share, translating to a fully franked dividend yield of 1.3% and a grossed-up dividend yield of 1.9%.

At a time when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cash rate is above 4%, the Netwealth dividend yield is not particularly appealing, so I wouldn’t call Netwealth shares a buy purely for the passive income.

But we should consider other elements of the investment thesis, not just its dividend potential.

Strong operational performance and margins

Netwealth is delivering strongly on growing its core metrics.

The update for the three months to 31 March 2024 showed funds under administration (FUA) had reached $84.7 billion, an increase of $6.7 billion over the quarter. The FUA growth over 12 months was 28.5%.

It reported FUA inflows of $5.2 billion for the three months to March 2024, which was 40.7% higher than the prior corresponding period. The FUA net inflows for the quarter were $2.7 billion, up 62.2% year over year.

Netwealth also reported its funds under management (FUM) reached $19.7 billion at 31 March 2024, an increase of $1.6 billion for the quarter. FUM net inflows for the quarter were $0.6 billion.

This level of FUA and FUM growth can help drive the company’s earnings higher because it contributes to revenue growth. As a digital platform business, Netwealth can benefit from operating leverage, leading to profit rising faster than revenue.

Netwealth says it’s highly profitable, with a strong earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) margin of 47.6% in the HY24 result. It also has “strong cash generation” and a very high level of recurring revenue, resulting in predictable revenue.

The broker UBS currently rates Netwealth as a buy because of the “strong” quarterly FUA and inflow numbers. The broker has a price target of $22.50 on Netwealth shares, implying a possible rise of more than 10% over the next 12 months.

The post Are Netwealth shares a compelling buy for dividends? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• If you’d invested $10,000 in Netwealth shares at the start of the year, here’s how much you’d have now

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Netwealth Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Netwealth Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Australia’s inflation rate has experienced notable fluctuations over the last couple of years. It has been significantly influenced by global disruptions such as the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions. These factors, coupled with supply chain constraints and rising commodity prices, have escalated costs across various sectors. This poses a challenge for investors looking to maintain the real value of their portfolio returns.

Impact of inflation on real returns

Inflation erodes the purchasing power of money, directly impacting the real returns of investments. For investors in the stock market, this means that nominal gains can be offset by the rising cost of living, leading to diminished actual wealth accumulation. This underscores the importance of strategic investment choices that can outpace inflation and preserve capital.

Defensive share investment strategies

In response to inflationary pressures, one strategy is to focus on defensive stocks in sectors less sensitive to economic cycles. Think consumer staples and utilities. These sectors are considered defensive because they provide essential goods or services that remain in demand, regardless of economic conditions.

Companies like Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL) and Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW) play a critical role in everyday life by providing necessary goods. Despite economic downturns, demand for products from these companies tends to remain stable, making them resilient investment choices during inflationary times. 

Coles reported robust results for 3QFY24. Supermarket sales revenue was up 5.1% to $9,065 million. Woolworths has also demonstrated strong financial performance recently, with group sales up 2.8% over the same period to $16,800 million. Despite these results, both companies’ share prices fell on the day of the quarterly updates.

Both supermarkets have seen their earnings increase year on year since 2020, but their share prices have been heading in the opposite direction. The Coles share price is down 10% over the past year while the Woolworths share price is down 17%. Both companies, however, have the potential to bounce back speedily following corrections in the share price which could serve savvy investors well.

Utilities are another pillar of defensive investing. Companies like AGL Energy Limited (ASX: AGL) supply essential services like electricity and gas. Utilities are indispensable, which can provide a buffer against economic swings. AGL recently raised its earnings guidance for FY24, with net profit after tax (NPAT) expected to be between $760 million and $810 million, up from $680 million and $780 million. 

The AGL share price is down 14% from its peak in July 2023 but has been trending upwards since February 2024, when it announced a quadrupling of interim profit.

Foolish takeaway

Investing in defensive stocks, such as those in the consumer staples and utilities sectors, can present a prudent approach to safeguarding your portfolio against inflation. These sectors offer the dual benefits of stability and consistent demand, which are crucial during times of economic uncertainty and rising prices.

By strategically incorporating such stocks, investors can protect their portfolios and possibly achieve real growth in value. This makes defensive share strategies essential to a well-rounded investment approach during inflationary periods.

The post Safeguarding against inflation: A defensive share strategy appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Katherine O’Brien has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Coles Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

ASX copper shares have risen strongly over the last few months. For example, since the start of 2024, the Sandfire Resources Ltd (ASX: SFR) share price has surged almost 30%, as can be seen below. Meanwhile, fellow ASX copper miner Aeris Resources Ltd (ASX: AIS) has seen its share price almost double in 2024 to date.

Various resources are required to decarbonise the world, including copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, and rare earths. But arguably copper may be one of the most vital commodities on the path to a greener future because of its importance to electrification. Copper is essential for wind and solar renewable energy generation, energy storage, electricity transmission, and electric vehicles.

In fact, Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) recently highlighted that just one 1MW wind turbine uses 3 tonnes of copper, while an electric vehicle uses four times more copper than a traditional vehicle.

Also according to Rio Tinto, global demand for copper is set to grow between 1.5% to 2.5% per year. This comes at a time when good copper deposits are becoming harder to find.

Those are the long-term dynamics, but with the copper price recently soaring to record highs of more than US$11,000 per tonne, is now the right time to invest?

Macquarie names two ASX copper shares

According to the Australian Financial Review (AFR), Macquarie is still pretty bullish on copper, despite prices recently soaring.

Macquarie’s analysts increased their copper price forecast for the 2024 calendar year by 7% to US$9,671 per tonne and for the 2025 calendar year by 9% to US$9,575 per tonne. While those numbers are lower than this week’s record highs, according to Statista, they would still represent stronger prices than have been seen over most of the past decade.

So why is the investment banking giant still optimistic on copper? Per AFR, Macquarie believes that slower Chinese demand for copper due to a weak property sector will be partially offset by a boost in demand outside of China.

However, Macquarie expects a copper surplus in 2026, leading to a price forecast of US$8,500 per tonne for that year.

Of the diversified miners, AFR reported Macquarie’s preferred pick as South32 Ltd (ASX: S32) while from a copper pure-play perspective, the broker favours Sandfire.

More positivity on Sandfire shares

Macquarie isn’t the only top broker that likes Sandfire for the longer term

AFR also reported broker Wilsons likes the ASX copper share after visiting its Botswana operations, but remains cautious about the recent strength of the copper price. Wilsons forecasts that in FY25, Sandfire can generate revenue of US$1.14 billion and earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of US$332.5 million.

Wilsons said:

We stress that we are positively predisposed toward Sandfire (and to structurally strong copper markets over the medium/longer term), but at this stage downgrade our rating to market weight, given our view that copper prices might give up some recent gains in the near term.

Wilsons has a price target of $9.90 on Sandfire shares, suggesting possible upside of 4.1% over the current share price in the next year.

The post Will ASX copper shares keep surging from here? (Plus: 2 top picks for exposure) appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

When directors, officers, or executives purchase shares in their own companies, it can send a powerful message about the business’s underlying health and future prospects. Insider buying can serve as a grassroots indicator of potential, sometimes preceding positive developments that lead to stock price appreciation. For investors, these moves offer a hint to look beyond the noise of the market and consider where insiders are putting their own money.

Recently, insiders at four S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) companies — ALS Ltd (ASX: ALQ), Super Retail Group Ltd (ASX: SUL), Sonic Healthcare Ltd (ASX: SHL), and Gold Road Resources Ltd (ASX: GOR) — have made notable purchases, suggesting value that others may have overlooked.

ALS

ALS is a global testing, inspection, and certification company. It delivered its FY24 results last week, recording a 6.8% increase in revenue and a final dividend of 19.6 cents. The company has undertaken eight acquisitions over the past 12 months which are expected to add $152 million to revenue on a full year basis. It is targeting mid single digit organic revenue growth in FY25. 

Super Retail Group 

Super Retail Group is a leading retailer specialising in auto, outdoor, and sports products in Australia. The company operates through several well-known retail brands including Supercheap Auto, BCF, and Rebel. Despite current inflation and interest rate challenges, the retailer managed to record total sales growth of 2% for the first 43 weeks of FY24. It expects to open 27 stores total in FY 24 and close 4 stores. 

Sonic Healthcare

Sonic Healthcare is a global company providing laboratory medicine/pathology and radiology services across multiple countries. In its most recent earnings update Sonic Healthcare reported strong organic revenue growth with earnings before interest tax depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) forecast to be approximately $1.6 billion in FY24. Inflationary pressures are weighing on profit growth; however, the company is set to reap the benefits of FY24’s investments in the form of synergies and enhanced returns from FY25 onward. 

Gold Road Resources 

Gold Road Resources is an Australian gold production and exploration company primarily focused on the Gruyere Gold Mine, one of Australia’s largest and lowest-cost gold mining operations. The company produced 64,323 ounces of gold in the March quarter with production sold at a strong spot gold price of $3,137 an ounce. Analysts have recently revised forecast gold prices upwards driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and a weakening US dollar. 

Foolish takeaway 

Insider buying can not only strengthen investor confidence but also provide a compelling narrative about latent value in ASX-listed companies. When company leaders invest their own money into their operations, it can be a strong endorsement of the business’ current health and future prospects. Whether it’s ALS’s strategic acquisitions poised to boost revenue, Super Retail Group’s expansion despite economic headwinds, Sonic Healthcare’s robust growth trajectory, or Gold Road Resources capitalising on favourable gold prices, these insider purchases signal a bullish outlook for these ASX 200 shares.

The post 4 ASX 200 shares being scooped up by insiders appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Katherine O’Brien has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Super Retail Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Super Retail Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Sonic Healthcare. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

ASX 200 uranium stock Boss Energy Ltd (ASX: BOE) is the biggest faller of the ASX 200 so far today.

The Boss Energy share price tumbled 9.73% shortly after the market open amid news of a major collective insiders’ sell-off. After hitting and of $4.82 per share, the uranium miner has partially recovered to $4.87.

Just after 5pm yesterday, the company announced that Boss Energy CEO and managing director Duncan Craib, chair Wyatt Buck, and director Bryn Jones had sold a significant portion of their personal holdings.

The statement included details of each sale and commentary from Buck as to why the sell-off occurred.

Let’s look at the details.

Major insiders sell-off of ASX 200 uranium stock

Firstly, let’s look at the details of the sales.

Boss Energy CEO and managing director Duncan Craib sold 3.75 million shares at an average price of $5.63 per share between Tuesday and Friday last week. The on-market sale totalled just over $21 million.

Additionally, Craib exercised an option yesterday to acquire 250,938 Boss Energy shares at a zero exercise price. The 250,983 short-term unquoted options had an expiry date of 30 June 2025.

His holdings now total 741,673 shares in the ASX 200 uranium stock, plus almost 300,000 long-term unquoted options and more than 390,000 long-term performance rights.

Chair Wyatt Buck sold 291,777 Boss Energy shares last Tuesday, also at $5.63 per share. The on-market sale totalled just over $1.64 million.

The sell-down represented 63% of Buck’s holdings. He retains 170,000 shares in the ASX 200 uranium stock.

Director Bryn Jones also sold 600,000 Boss Energy shares last Tuesday at $5.63 per share. The on-market sale totalled just under $3.38 million.

Like Buck’s sale, this also represented 63% of his total holdings. Jones retains just under 345,000 shares in the ASX 200 uranium stock.

What did management say?

In the statement, Buck explained that several years ago, the board of directors made personal commitments not to sell any shares until Boss Energy’s 100%-owned Honeymoon mine began production.

The company acquired the Honeymoon mine in December 2015. The first drum of uranium was produced last month, making Boss Energy Australia’s first new uranium producer in a decade.

Buck specifically addressed the largest sale among the three directors — that of CEO Duncan Craib.

He said:

Mr Craib joined Boss in January 2017 and was tasked, personally invested, and incentivised with taking the Honeymoon mine toward production.

Having achieved that milestone event Mr Craib has sold 3.75 million securities and retains 1.43 million securities after the change.

Mr Craib remains a significant long-term shareholder of the Company and has no intention to sell any further shares in the medium term.

Buck added that Craib remains committed to driving Boss Energy’s growth.

He said the board was acting to ensure Craib and the executive team were incentivised and aligned for the company’s next stage of expansion.

As at 31 March, Boss Energy has no debt and $298 million of liquid assets (cash, equity investments and physical uranium).

What’s happening with the Boss Energy share price?

The ASX 200 uranium stock has soared in recent years as the world warms up to the idea of nuclear energy being part of the green energy transition.

The Boss Energy share price is up 75% over the past 12 months and 9,560% over the past five years. (You read that right!)

As we recently reported, the ASX 200 uranium stock has also been one of the top 5 risers since the COVID crash.

The new demand for uranium emerged amid constrained supply, leading to extraordinary growth in the uranium price.

The uranium price is currently at a 16-year high of US$91.65 per pound, up 68% over the past 12 months.

The uranium price cracked the US$100 per pound watermark in January before retracing to where it is today.

Established uranium mining companies around the globe have rushed to restart mines that have been on care and maintenance for years to feed this growing worldwide demand.

According to Trading Economics, the United States and 20 other countries have announced plans to triple their nuclear power by 2050.

Of the 58 global nuclear reactors under construction, China is building 22 of them.

The post ASX 200 uranium stock dives 10% amid $26 million insiders sell-off appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Rarely will an ASX growth stock look ‘cheap’ if it is close to printing money for its shareholders. No one wants to sell an ordinary goose as it evolves into a golden one. As such, it’s often extremely difficult to locate a company with multibagger potential before it skyrockets.

Patience and perseverance can go a long way in this lifelong endeavour. If you turn over enough stones, you’ll eventually find those rare companies — the misunderstood, underappreciated, or simply ignored businesses primed for success.

This month, I’ve uncovered a little ASX growth stock that is now high on my buy list.

Profits could send this soaring

Companies that are not yet profitable can be difficult to value. As onlookers haphazardly speculate on the future, this can lead to wildly exuberant or sunken share prices. Fortunately, this wayward estimation can also give rise to undervalued opportunities.

Sometimes, the mood among a company’s shareholders falls into a rut. Good news becomes bad news, and bad news becomes terrible news. The despair stage can narrow investors’ vision, clouding genuine positive signs.

Enter Eroad Ltd (ASX: ERD): A fleet management technology company attempting to traverse the gap between cash burner and cash earner. If successful, sentiment can quickly shift. A recent example is Xero Ltd (ASX: XRO), with shares now up 19% year-to-date after achieving profitability in FY24.

High revenue growth and profitability are powerful combinations. The New Zealand-based vehicle telematics company Eroad is already reaping revenue growth. In the last three years, its revenue has increased 98.7% to NZ$182 million — a compounding annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25.7% per annum.

On 23 May 2024, this ASX growth stock announced it had achieved a positive free cash flow of $1.3 million in FY24.

Furthermore, according to analyst forecasts, FY26 net profit after tax (NPAT) could be around NZ$10.6 million. Those estimates then expand to NZ$24.4 million in FY27.

If Eroad were to trade on a 30 times price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, the company’s market capitalisation could be A$676.6 million. Right now, Eroad is valued at $162.3 million — leading me to believe this ASX growth stock could be a four-bagger in three years.

Why is this ASX growth stock being ignored?

I’m guessing you’re already asking: “Mitchell, why hasn’t the share price rallied if the future is so bright?”

It’s a good question. Eroad is not without its risks.

My biggest worry is the company’s rate of share dilution. Since 2020, the number of shares outstanding has more than doubled (shown below), effectively more than halving the value of each slice of ownership a shareholder owns.

I’ll be keeping a close eye on it, although I’m optimistic, given Eroad is now free cash flow positive.

The post ASX growth stock on the cusp of profitability: My multibagger pick appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Mitchell Lawler has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Xero. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.