Author: openjargon

Challenger Ltd (ASX: CGF) shares have rocketed 6.08% higher in lunchtime trade on Wednesday. At the time of writing the shares are changing hands for $8.72 a piece in what is a stark turnaround from earlier this week.

February so far has been filled with volatility for the Australian investment management company. The share price crashed 10% between Wednesday last week to the close of the ASX yesterday afternoon. And now it is rocketing back up.

For the year-to-date Challenger shares are down 8.23% but they’re 55.91% higher over the year.

What has caused so much share price volatility recently?

There’s been ongoing deal speculation about Challenger’s advanced talks about a joint acquisition of Pepper Money Ltd (ASX: PPM) alongside Pepper Group. 

The company said earlier this month that it thinks a potential acquisition could give Challenger long-term access to fixed income assets and support its strategic growth plans. The news caused a temporary share price spike to Wednesday last week. But then concerns about how the deal would be executed caused some investors to sell up their shares towards the end of the week.

Why are Challenger shares climbing higher today?

Challenger posted its first half FY26 results ahead of the ASX open yesterday morning. It revealed an enormous statutory net profit after tax (NPAT) of 369% to $339 million for the period and a 2$ increase in normalised NPAT to $229 million.

The group also announced a fully franked dividend increase of 7% to 15.5 cents per share.

The results weren’t enough to shift investor sentiment. The share price closed 0.49% lower at the end of the day on Tuesday.

There is no more price-sensitive news out of the company today, so it looks like today’s share price hike is a delayed investor reaction to yesterday’s profits and dividends announcement. 

Are Challenger shares a buy, sell or hold following its results?

Analysts continue to be pretty optimistic about the outlook for Challenger shares, and this is especially supported by strong-than-anticipated financial results yesterday. 

TradingView data shows that seven out of 10 analysts have a buy or strong buy rating on the shares. Another three have a hold rating.

The average target price is $9.50 which, even after today’s rally, implies a 9.07% upside at the time of writing.

Some analysts are more bullish and expect a share price hike to $10 a piece. That implies a 14.81% potential upside at the time of writing on Wednesday lunchtime. 

The post Challenger shares storm 6% higher today. Is it too late to buy? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Challenger earnings: Statutory NPAT surges 369% in H1 FY26
• Why Bravura, CAR Group, Pepper Money, and Web Travel shares are storming higher
• Why Bougainville Copper, Brainchip, Challenger, and HMC Capital shares are falling today
• Pepper Money shares pop 25%, Challenger slips 3% on take-private deal
• Challenger flags talks on Pepper Money acquisition

Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Challenger. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is on form again and pushing higher. At the time of writing, the benchmark index is up 0.4% to 8,994.2 points.

Four ASX shares that have failed to follow the market higher today are listed below. Here’s why they are falling:

Baby Bunting Group Ltd (ASX: BBN)

The Baby Bunting share price is down 3.5% to $2.30. This morning, analysts at Morgans reaffirmed their hold rating on this baby products retailer’s shares with a trimmed price target of $2.60. The broker said: “BBN’s 1H26 pro-forma NPAT was up 4.1% yoy to $5.0m which was in the middle of guidance range ($4.5-$5.5m) driven by comps sales growth, gross margin expansion offset by higher costs. Nine stores have been refurbished to the new store design, and have performed strongly, sales up 25%, which is at the upper end of guidance range of 15-25%. FY26 NPAT guidance has been narrowed to $17.5-$19.5m (was $17-20m). We have made minor changes to forecasts. We have a $2.60 target price (was $2.70) Hold recommendation retained.”

Capstone Copper Corp (ASX: CSC)

The Capstone Copper share price is down 18% to $12.78. This follows the release of the copper miner’s guidance for 2026. Capstone Copper expects consolidated copper production of between 200,000 and 230,000 tonnes in 2026. This is broadly in line with 2025 levels. Management also advised that it expects consolidated C1 cash costs of US$2.45 to US$2.75 per payable pound of copper in 2026. This is an increase compared to 2025, primarily due to modest inflation and lower-grade ore at Mantos Blancos and Pinto Valley driven by mine sequencing.

Healius Ltd (ASX: HLS)

The Healius share price is down 11% to 72.7 cents. This morning, this healthcare company released its half-year results and reported a 3.8% increase in group revenue to $688.1 million and underlying EBIT of $7.9 million. The latter was up from a loss of $2.7 million a year ago. While management expects to achieve earnings in line with consensus estimates in FY 2026, it warned that its revenue and profitability will be skewed towards the second half. This is due to both the timing of cost savings and normal volume seasonality factors. The market appears sceptical that it will deliver on this guidance.

Suncorp Group Ltd (ASX: SUN)

The Suncorp share price is down 5% to $15.19. Investors have been selling this insurance giant’s shares following the release of its half-year results. Suncorp reported a net profit after tax of $263 million, which is down heavily from $1.1 billion a year earlier. The company’s CEO, Steve Johnston, said: “While Suncorp’s 1H26 reported profits and shareholder returns have been challenged by an elevated level of natural hazard costs and lower investment returns over the half, our underlying business remains resilient as we continue to deliver on our strategic imperatives and drive good momentum leading into the second half of the financial year.”

The post Why Baby Bunting, Capstone Copper, Healius, and Suncorp shares are falling today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Why is this ASX 200 copper stock crashing 19%?
• Suncorp Group posts resilient 1H26 earnings despite higher claims
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday
• Why Baby Bunting shares are jumping 10% today
• ANZ Group posts $1.94b cash profit as costs drop in 1Q26

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Technology One Ltd (ASX: TNE) shares are pushing higher on Tuesday.

The move comes after the enterprise software company released an update at its annual general meeting (AGM).

In early afternoon trade, the Technology One share price is up 7.04% to $23.25. By comparison, the S&P/ASX All Technology Index (ASX: XTX) is 0.57% higher.

Despite today’s rebound, the stock remains down around 17% in 2026 to date. It has been caught up in the broader sell-off across global technology names linked to artificial intelligence (AI) concerns and valuation resets.

Here’s what the company told investors.

FY26 outlook lifted at AGM

At its AGM, Technology One announced an upgrade to its FY26 guidance.

Management now expects profit before tax (PBT) growth of between 18% and 20%, up from its prior guidance range of 13% to 17%.

The company also upgraded its annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth guidance to 16% to 18%.

According to CEO Ed Chung, the upgraded outlook reflects confidence in the group’s customer pipeline across Australia, New Zealand, and the UK, as well as momentum in its SaaS+ strategy.

Chung noted that Technology One has a long track record of delivering at the top end of its guidance ranges. He added that the business does not upgrade guidance lightly and only does so when it has strong visibility in the numbers.

The company highlighted that its first-half PBT growth is expected to be in the high single digits. A stronger second-half is anticipated as investments in AI showcase events and product launches begin to contribute.

From SaaS to SaaS+

Technology One reiterated that it has transitioned from being a SaaS business to what it calls a SaaS+ model.

Under this approach, the company provides an integrated enterprise software solution as a service (SaaS), including implementation, support, and ongoing upgrades, rather than just software licences.

The group services more than 1,300 organisations across government, education, and corporate sectors. It remains one of the ASX 100’s larger technology companies, with a market capitalisation of about $7.6 billion.

Key dates ahead for investors

Investors will not have to wait long for more details.

Technology One is scheduled to release its half-year results on 19 May 2026. That update should provide greater clarity on first-half earnings, ARR growth, and margins.

In the meantime, the company also confirmed the retirement of long-serving Non-Executive Director Clifford Rosenberg, who has served on the board for 7 years.

With upgraded guidance now in place, attention will shift to whether Technology One can continue to deliver double-digit earnings growth in a tougher technology market.

The post Why Technology One shares are surging 7% today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• TechnologyOne upgrades earnings guidance on AI and SaaS+ momentum
• 3 ASX ETFs to target if you anticipate a tech turnaround 
• Why this top fundie is doubling down on ASX 200 tech stocks like TechnologyOne and Xero shares
• Why are ASX 200 tech shares down 43% in six months?
• 3 ASX shares I’d buy and hold through market volatility

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Technology One. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Technology One. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Shares in ASX small-cap stock Step One Clothing Ltd (ASX: STP) have fallen 12% on Wednesday (at the time of writing) after the online underwear retailer announced a statutory loss for the first half of FY 2026, weighed down by a large inventory provision and weaker sales.

The result marks a sharp reversal from the prior corresponding period and underscores the challenges facing the business as it executes a strategic reset.

What did Step One report?

Step One reported revenue of $36.3 million for the six months to 31 December 2025, down 24.5% on the prior corresponding period.

The company posted an EBITDA loss of $10 million, compared to a profit of $11.2 million a year earlier, whilst statutory NPAT was a loss after tax of $8.5 million, versus a profit of $8.2 million in 1H25.

Gross margin fell sharply to 43%, down from 78% in the prior period, reflecting the inventory write-down.

What else do investors need to know?

The key driver of the result was the $10.9 million provision against aged and slow-moving inventory, despite promotional activity.

Accounting rules require inventory to be valued on the balance sheet at the lower of cost or net realisable value, and so this inventory write-down implies that the company’s legacy stock can likely only be sold at prices well below cost, despite clearance activity such as Black Friday promotions.

Encouragingly, the company ended the half with $24 million in cash and term deposits, whilst total liabilities were $8.4 million.

No interim dividend was declared. Dividends are expected to recommence once retained earnings return to a positive balance.

What did management say?

Founder and CEO Greg Taylor said sales in late 2025 were below expectations due to slower-than-expected clearance of legacy inventory.

He described the result as reinforcing the urgency of the company’s “reset program,” which includes moderating discounting, focusing on product innovation, and restoring brand perception.

Given the transition phase, management is not providing full-year earnings guidance.

Share price snapshot

Prior to today’s sell-off, Step One shares had already been under pressure amid slowing growth and margin compression. Today’s 12% drop reflects investor concern about the struggle to move inventory, along with declining revenue and margin contraction.

With the inventory provision now taken and the balance sheet still solid, investors will be watching closely to see whether the reset can stabilise sales and restore profitability in the second half.

Step One shares are down 80% over the past 12 months.

The post Step One shares plunge 12% as inventory write-down wipes out half-year profit appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Challenger shares storm 6% higher today. Is it too late to buy?
• Why Baby Bunting, Capstone Copper, Healius, and Suncorp shares are falling today
• Why Technology One shares are surging 7% today
• Why are CBA shares falling today?
• JB Hi-Fi shares jump 15% this week. What’s next?

Motley Fool contributor Kevin Gandiya has no positions in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares are underperforming on Wednesday.

At the time of writing, the banking giant’s shares are down 0.5% to $177.13.

This compares unfavourably to the performance of the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO), which is up 0.4% this afternoon.

In addition, the rest of the big four banks are pushing higher today, with National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) shares leading the way with a gain of 5%.

Let’s see why CBA shares are trailing the market and its peers today.

What’s going on with CBA shares?

There’s one good reason why Australia’s largest bank’s shares are under pressure today. That is that they are trading ex-dividend for CBA’s interim dividend of FY 2026.

When a share goes ex-dividend, it means the rights to that payout are now locked in. As a result, any investors that are buying the bank’s shares today will not be entitled to receive the dividend when it is paid.

It will instead be paid to the seller of the shares, even though they won’t own them when payday comes around.

A dividend forms part of an ASX share’s valuation. This means that it will tend to drop in line with the value of the payout to reflect this. After all, prospective shareholders don’t want to pay for something that they won’t receive.

The CBA dividend

Last week, CBA released its half-year results and reported a cash net profit of $5.45 billion. This was an increase of 6% on the prior corresponding period.

This was driven by lending and deposit volume growth in its core businesses, which was partly offset by lower margins and higher operating expenses. The latter reflects inflationary pressures and its continued investment in technology.

In light of this profit growth, the CBA board was able to declare a fully franked interim dividend of $2.35 per share. This was up 4% year on year and represents a payout ratio of 74%.

Commenting on the payout, CEO Matt Coymn said:

Our history of long-term decision making has created a strong, resilient bank that supports our customers and communities and delivers for shareholders. This has allowed us to declare an interim dividend of $2.35 per share, fully franked.

When is pay day?

Eligible CBA shareholders can look forward to receiving this payout next month. CBA is scheduled to make its payment on 30 March.

The post Why are CBA shares falling today? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday
• 3 high-quality blue-chip ASX shares I would buy right now
• ASX recap: 5 most traded shares last week
• What have we learned from earnings season so far?
• Here’s the earnings forecast out to 2030 for CBA shares

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

JB Hi-Fi Ltd (ASX: JBH) shares are trading in the red on Wednesday. At the time of writing, the shares have slumped 0.55% to $88.61 a piece. 

While the latest share price movement isn’t positive news for investors, the losses have barely dented the gains the consumer electronics and home entertainment business has made this week.

JB Hi-Fi shares have jumped 15.18% since the close on Friday afternoon.

It’s a huge turnaround for the business, which saw its share price plummet through the final months of 2025. After spiking at an all-time high of $121 per share in August, the stock finished 20% lower at the end of the year.

What happened to JB Hi-Fi shares this week?

The electronics retailer posted its half-year results for FY26 ahead of the market open on Monday morning. And clearly, investors are thrilled with the update.

JB Hi-Fi revealed a 7.3% increase in total sales to $6.1 billion and a 7.1% lift in net profit after tax to $305.8 million. Its earnings before interest and tax also grew 8.1% over the period. 

The company also announced a 23.5% increase in its fully-franked interim dividend to 210 cents per share. The shares will trade ex-dividend on 26 February 2026, with payment scheduled for 13 March 2026.

Management provided a trading update for January, too. It said that JB Hi-Fi Australia recorded total sales growth of 4% for the month, while JB Hi-Fi New Zealand recorded 26.4% growth. The Good Guys reported sales growth of 2.7%. On the other hand, e&s sales declined 4.6%.

Management added that while growth has been relatively consistent, it remains cautious given the uncertain retail outlook and strong competition. 

The question now is, what can we expect next?

Can JB Hi-Fi shares keep climbing in 2026?

Analysts have been relatively bullish on JB Hi-Fi shares for some time. And it looks like this latest results announcement and supersized dividend payout are what was needed to turn investor confidence around.

But TradingView data shows that analysts are still divided about the outlook for JB Hi-Fi shares. Out of 16 analysts, seven have a hold rating, and seven have a buy or strong buy rating on the stock. Another two have a strong sell position.

The average target price is $94.15 a piece, which implies a decent 7.57% potential upside at the time of writing. However, some analysts think the shares could rocket even higher. The maximum target price is $121.40 per share, which implies a potential 38.63% upside over the next 12 months.

Macquarie Group is one of the more optimistic brokers on the block. The team recently said they think market concerns are overdone and they see tailwinds ahead, including ongoing tech upgrade cycles.

Citi also rates the ASX retail stock a buy and said it was “positively surprised” by gross margins at JB Hi-Fi and The Good Guys. Based on history — just one major downgrade in 15 years — Citi sees limited risk of sharp earnings cuts.

The post JB Hi-Fi shares jump 15% this week. What’s next? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Which ASX 200 retail stock looks stronger: JB Hi-Fi or Harvey Norman?
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Why BHP, JB Hi-Fi, Judo Capital, and PEXA shares are storming higher today
• Is JB Hi-Fi a buy, sell or hold following its half-year result?
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today

Citigroup is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Capstone Copper Corp (ASX: CSC) shares are having a poor session on Wednesday.

At the time of writing, the ASX 200 copper stock is down 19% to $12.72.

Why is this ASX 200 copper stock crashing?

The heavy selling this morning follows the release of the copper miner’s 2026 production and cost guidance, which appears to have disappointed investors.

Capstone Copper announced that it expects consolidated copper production of between 200,000 and 230,000 tonnes in 2026. While this is broadly in line with 2025 levels, it signals largely flat output rather than the stronger growth some investors may have been hoping for.

More concerning for the market is cost guidance. The ASX 200 copper stock expects consolidated C1 cash costs of US$2.45 to US$2.75 per payable pound of copper in 2026. Management said costs are expected to increase compared to 2025, primarily due to modest inflation and lower-grade ore at Mantos Blancos and Pinto Valley driven by mine sequencing.

Lower grades generally mean more material needs to be processed to produce the same amount of copper, which can weigh on margins.

Big capital spend

Another factor that may be unsettling investors is the scale of planned capital expenditure.

Capstone Copper is forecasting total capital expenditure of US$495 million in 2026. This includes US$270 million in sustaining capital and US$225 million in expansionary capital, largely related to the Mantoverde Optimized Project and the Santo Domingo Project.

On top of this, the company expects to spend a further US$225 million on capitalised stripping at its open-pit operations and US$70 million on exploration activities.

While these investments are aimed at driving future growth, they represent significant cash outflows in the near term.

Production outlook

At Mantoverde, production is expected to remain broadly stable in 2026, though throughput improvements are set to be offset by the impact of a January strike and planned maintenance. The ramp-up of the Mantoverde Optimized project is expected in the fourth quarter of 2026, with higher production levels targeted in 2027.

Over at Mantos Blancos, it is forecast to see lower production in 2026 due to a one-year period of lower copper grades, though grades are expected to recover in 2027.

Finally, Pinto Valley production is expected to increase slightly, but grades will be marginally lower. Cozamin is forecast to see slightly lower production due to lower grades and higher labour costs.

Commenting on the update, the ASX 200 copper stock’s CEO, Cashel Meagher, said:

2025 was a remarkable year for Capstone, delivering record copper production up 22% year-over-year, while executing on several key catalysts. We will continue to build on this success in 2026, with a focus on delivering consistent and reliable outcomes, while we execute on MV-O which is expected to drive higher copper production levels in 2027. Meanwhile, we will progress the fully-permitted Santo Domingo Project towards a sanctioning decision, which is expected in the second half of 2026.

Building on the first phase of the exploration program commenced in late 2024, we will continue to advance our district growth strategy through targeted exploration focused on the Mantoverde-Santo Domingo district. In parallel, we will continue to capitalize on strong commodity prices by deleveraging through internally generated cash flows, ensuring we are well-positioned to advance our growth strategy.

The post Why is this ASX 200 copper stock crashing 19%? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Copper price forecast for 2026: Goldman Sachs
• Capstone Copper shares in a slump despite good news out of Chile
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• 3 ASX 200 stocks smashing the benchmark this week
• ASX copper shares surge as commodity hits record high

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Critical minerals shares were in focus for much of the latter part of last year, as the US sought to put in place strategies to bolster home-grown supply and diversify away from China, which has a strong hold on much of the supply chain for these minerals.

According to the analysts at Macquarie, this interest has jumped again early this calendar year, with the US launching the US$12 billion Vault Project, which is in addition to the US National Defense Stockpile (NDS).

Stockpiles will drive demand

Just how the Vault Project will work and even which minerals will be stockpiled are unclear at this stage, but it is undoubtedly a positive for critical minerals companies, Macquarie said in a recent research note sent to clients.

Macquarie said the project was “aggressive”, and while details were thin on the ground, it would undoubtedly be a positive for critical minerals suppliers.

They added:

Currently, there is no clear guidance on either the scale or composition of minerals to be stockpiled under the Vault Project. However, if we assume an NdPr (neodymium-praseodymium)stockpile cap similar to the US$2bn NDS and adjust for the larger funding envelope, the implied NdPr oxide inventory for the Vault Project would be about 2.6kt, or about 2% of projected global demand in CY26. We note that the internal budget may ultimately target a significantly larger volume, given NdPr’s widespread use across civilian and industrial applications.

Macquarie said the critical minerals strategy would be built on four pillars: direct investment; strategic stockpiling; market protection; and rebuilding the mining ecosystem.

Two ASX-listed companies which could stand to benefit, the Macquarie team said, were Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: LYC) and Iluka Resources Ltd (ASX: ILU).

In the case of Iluka, Macquarie has a price target of $6.50 on the company’s shares, compared with $5.35 currently.

Iluka reported its first-half results on Wednesday, saying mineral sands revenue had fallen from $1.13 billion to $976 million over the full year.

The company also dropped its full-year dividend from 4 cents to 3 cents, on a $288 million net loss, down from a $231 million full-year profit. The loss included $565 million in impairment charges announced to the market in January.

The company, in its statement to the ASX, mirrored Macquarie’s sentiment that it was well-placed to take advantage of demand as the rare earths market developed.

The company said:

Rare earths dominated headlines globally in 2025 and were recognised as a clear priority by investors, consumers and policymakers alike. We saw the risk of supply disruptions shift from the theoretical to the concrete, reinforcing the value and strategic importance of the new business Iluka has been building since 2022, with the Eneabba refinery to be commissioned next year.

Iluka said an example of the market evolving was the US government introducing a price floor for light magnet rare earths.

It went on to say:

The acceleration of these developments underscores the advantage of Eneabba coming online in 2027; the products it will deliver (light and heavy rare earths oxides); how those products will be priced; and the wide range of feedstocks the facility has access to and will be capable of processing.

Meanwhile, Macquarie’s price target on Lynas was $17.50 per share compared with $15.44 currently. Lynas will report its results on February 26.

The post Two critical minerals companies to consider, according to Macquarie appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Iluka Resources posts lower FY25 profit but advances rare earths strategy
• Buy, hold, sell: CSL, Lynas, and Wesfarmers shares
• 3 ASX mining shares to sell: experts
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today

Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended Lynas Rare Earths Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Superannuation funds have delivered positive returns for the first month of the calendar year, Chant West says, despite volatility in the markets.

Chant West, head of superannuation investment research, Mano Mohankumar, said funds were coming off a strong return for calendar year 2025 of 9.2%, and edged up another 0.4% for January.

This brought the return for the first seven months of the financial year to 5.4%.

Mr Mohankumar added:

During the month, we saw heightened geopolitical risks including US military action in Venezuela and renewed tariff threats against Europe in relation to Greenland, which were subsequently withdrawn. However, markets focused on the global economic backdrop that still remains positive and expectations of continued earnings growth. Over the full month of January, international developed shares were up 1.7% in hedged terms, but the sharp appreciation of the Australian dollar relative to the US dollar turned that healthy gain into a loss of 2.7% in unhedged terms. On average, super funds have about 70% of their international shares exposure unhedged. Emerging markets shares outperformed developed markets, returning 3.6% in unhedged terms. Back at home, Australian shares advanced 1.7%, while over the same period both Australian and international bonds gained 0.2%

Mr Mohankumar said that over a longer time horizon, it was clear that Australia’s superannuation funds had been performing well.

He added:

Since the introduction of compulsory super in July 1992, the median growth fund has returned 8% p.a. The annual CPI increase over the same period is 2.7%, giving a real return of 5.3% p.a. – well above the typical 3.5% target. Even looking at the past 20 years, which includes three major share market downturns – the GFC in 2007-2009, COVID-19 in 2020, and the high inflation and rising interest rates in 2022 – super funds have returned 6.8% p.a., which is still well ahead of the typical objective.

Diving deeper into the results, over the past year, an aggressive “all growth” allocation has outperformed, returning 8.7% compared with 6.3% for the balanced option.

Over the financial year to date, all growth has also outperformed, coming in with a 7.2% return.

So how much super do you need?

The Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia (ASFA) has done the numbers and says that, for a comfortable lifestyle, singles will need a super balance of $54,240 a year, or $76,505 for a couple.

This translates to a super balance of $690,000 for couples and $595,000 for singles based on a retirement age of 67.

The post Despite choppy markets, super funds get the year off to a positive start appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• JB Hi-Fi shares jump 15% this week. What’s next?
• Why is this ASX 200 copper stock crashing 19%?
• Two critical minerals companies to consider, according to Macquarie
• What’s next for the BHP share price?
• Warning: This superannuation myth could derail your retirement

Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price is in the red on Wednesday morning. At the time of writing, the shares are down 1.25% to $52.08 a piece.

Despite today’s decline, the mining giant’s shares are still 13.68% higher for the year to date and 26.97% above where they were last year.

What happened to BHP shares this week?

It’s been a big week for the company and its share price is still settling following news of its impressive half-year result, its latest dividend announcement and new silver agreement.

On Tuesday, the group announced that it has entered into a long-term streaming agreement with Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (NYSE: WPM). Under the agreement, BHP will receive an upfront payment of US$4.3 billion at completion in exchange for delivering silver.

The news was quickly followed by the miner’s latest financial results announcement. BHP posted a 11% revenue increase and 28% profit hike for the half-year ended 31st December 2025. At the same time, BHP announced a 46% increase in its interim dividend, to US 73 cents fully franked. 

Investors were pleasantly surprised with the announcements and rushed to secure a stake in the company. And the combination of tailwinds sent the share price flying to an all-time record of $53.95 a piece.

Although the shares have now dropped 3.69% from that all-time high to the current trading price, they’re still 0.56% higher than when the ASX opened on Monday morning this week.

The question now is, will the BHP share price climb higher again or correct back to what it was before this week began?

What’s next for the BHP share price?

TradingView data shows that the majority of analysts still have a ‘hold’ rating on BHP shares. Out of 20 analysts, 11 rate the mining giant’s stock as a hold and six have a buy or strong buy rating. Another three have a sell or strong sell rating on BHP shares.

The average target price is currently $51.75 a piece, which implies a 0.14% downside at the time of writing. Although, some analysts are bullish that the shares could climb to $59.79 a piece this year. That implies a 15.28% upside from the current share price.

Some analysts have confirmed their neutral stances on the stock following the ASX giant’s announcements yesterday. The consensus that while earnings were solid, they were not a shock. 

More analysts are expected to confirm or amend their position on the mining giant’s shares in coming days. 

The post What’s next for the BHP share price? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• BHP share price breaks records on US$4.3b silver agreement
• Here’s everything you need to know about the latest BHP dividend
• Why BHP, JB Hi-Fi, Judo Capital, and PEXA shares are storming higher today
• ASX recap: 5 most traded shares last week

Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.