Author: openjargon

• The US and its allies are focused on preventing a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. 
• A new report argues there's a lack of readiness for other ways China could take control of Taiwan.
• An aggressive Chinese coercion campaign is far more likely than an invasion and already happening, experts warn.

With the US and its allies focused on what a Chinese invasion of Taiwan could look like, and how American forces could defend Taiwan if necessary, they're missing a glaring alternative strategy China could employ to capture Taiwan, a new report argues.

Defense experts say that an aggressive Chinese coercion campaign, short of war but still threatening, is more likely than a full-scale invasion and the US needs to prepare for such an event.

A new report co-authored by war experts from the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War explores a scenario where China undergoes a "coercion campaign that remains far short of invasion but nevertheless brings Taiwan under Beijing's control," identifying such an event as a "significant gap in US strategic thought."

Elements of such a campaign are already underway and include China's military exercises both in the Taiwan Strait and around the island, which are growing in scale and raising worries about escalation. Economic and diplomatic pressure is notable, and Chinese misinformation operations and the potential to slowly set up a blockade of Taiwan are also concerns.

The increasing Chinese military presence around Taiwan, the report says, could exhaust and overwhelm Taiwan's military and fuel a narrative that it is unable to defend the island, decreasing "trust in the military and feelings of security among the Taiwanese populace."

The report identifies four things key to resisting Chinese coercion. The first is a US-Taiwanese strategic relationship that foregoes concerns that "cooperation directly precipitates further escalation, whereas peace and prosperity are just around the corner if this partnership is halted."

Second, Taiwan's government must function despite Chinese efforts to undermine it in the eyes of the Taiwanese people through things like "economic warfare, cyber warfare, sabotage, rigorous (and pseudo-legal) inspections of ships carrying goods to Taiwan, air and sea closures, electronic warfare, and propaganda critical of government mismanagement."

These efforts include significantly degrading Taiwan's essential services, like clean water and electricity.

The third point is that Taiwanese people must resist Chinese "cognitive and psychological campaigns" aimed at breaking their rejection of the Chinese government, including "intimidating supporters of resistance, sowing doubt and fear among the population, and generating demands to trade political concessions for peace."

And lastly, there has to be resistance against "widespread information campaigns" that "aim to decrease the US public's and political leadership's willingness to support Taiwan." Such campaigns are already occurring, prompting anxiety that the US public and government may see getting involved in defending Taiwan as heightening risks of war at a significant cost with little to gain. The AEI and ISW experts argue that is not the case.

Notably, the report says that "Taiwan is strategically vital to the larger US-led coalition to contain" China, arguing that a US-friendly Taiwan links America's allies in the northwestern Pacific with US partners and allies to the south."

A China-controlled Taiwan, however, "would become a springboard for further PRC aggression and would seriously compromise the US-led coalition's ability to operate cohesively."

The authors of the new report present coordinated actions China could pursue to prompt Taiwan and its partners to accept reunification, referring to it as a "short-of-war coercion course of action."

Some of Beijing's biggest problems are Taiwanese resistance to China, which continues to grow, especially after the historic election of Democratic Progressive Party candidate Lai Ching-te, who is currently the vice president, in January, and continued support from the US and its regional allies.

The new report looks at a hypothetical timeline that begins with the inauguration of Lai this month and leads into 2028, imaging how China and Taiwan could, by that point, come to a "peace" agreement. China could ultimately be successful in such a campaign, the authors say, if the US and its allies fail to recognize Beijing's coercive tactics or strategically plan to deter them.

The US must clearly "recognize the possibility and danger of a coercion campaign that is far more intense than the one currently ongoing against Taiwan and develop ways to prevent Taiwan's isolation through means short of war," they write.

The report's authors argue that "increased efforts in the information domain will be key to ensuring that the US government and friendly international audiences do not fall prey to [Chinese] information operations intended to reshape the way Americans and key international actors think."

US-Taiwanese relations and concerns about an aggressive China in the Pacific region are often at the forefront of the minds of US officials and experts, but the focus is frequently on hard power elements, even if there is recognition of some of the coercive aspects of Chinese behavior.

In March, US Navy Adm. John Aquilano, then the commander of US Indo-Pacific Command, stressed that China was pursuing a massive military build-up not seen since World War II and "all indications" pointed to it "meeting President Xi Jinping's directive to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027." He also told the US Armed Services House Committee China's actions indicated it would ready to unify Taiwan by force, if necessary.

Aquilano urged lawmakers to intensify the US' military development and posturing in the Pacific in order to deter such a fight.

And, earlier this month, over a dozen US lawmakers wrote to US Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro and Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall, raising concerns about what preparations were being made to harden the US presence in the Pacific and deter military action from China.

Of the lawmakers' concerns, the most prominent appeared to be the lack of active and passive defenses protecting US bases in the area, specifically on Guam and in Japan. "We are concerned about the alarming lack of urgency by the Department of Defense in adopting such defensive measures," they wrote, adding that "it is apparent that the Pentagon is not urgently pursuing needed passive defenses" to harden US bases and airfields from a vicious, preemptive strike by China's threatening missile force.

• OpenAI and Reddit are teaming up together in a new partnership.
• Reddit's content will help train OpenAI's models, the companies announced Thursday.
• Reddit, meanwhile, gains a new advertising partner in OpenAI. 

OpenAI and Reddit announced a new partnership on Thursday in a move that will bring the social media platform's popular content to ChatGPT.

The mutually beneficial deal will help Reddit to further diversify its revenue streams and give OpenAI more data to better train its AI models.

"OpenAI will bring enhanced Reddit content to ChatGPT and new products, helping users discover and engage with Reddit communities," the companies said in a joint statement.

OpenAI will also gain access to Reddit's Data API, which will enable the company's AI tools to "better understand and showcase Reddit content, especially on recent topics," according to the announcement.

Reddit, meanwhile, will gain a new advertising partner in OpenAI. The value of the deal was not disclosed.

The news sent Reddit shares soaring $12 in extended trade, Reuters reported.

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, who holds a sizable stake in Reddit, already reaped a windfall earlier this year when the company went public in March. The Thursday announcement included a disclosure of Altman's shareholder status, confirming the partnership was led by OpenAI's COO and approved by its independent board of directors.

This is a breaking story. Check back for updates.

• Former Trump lawyer Michael Cohen spent his third day on the stand in the NY hush money trial.
• As his testimony droned on, the real show was outside, where political stunts were plentiful.
• There were penis-shaped balloons, and chants of "Beetlejuice!" during a speech by Lauren Boebert.

It was just after noon when giant, agitprop penises began flying past the sooty limestone facade of the criminal court in Manhattan.

It was just one of the political pranks seen outside the hush-money trial Thursday — and it was a heck-of-a-lot more interesting than the testimony droning on inside.

Up on the 15th floor, Donald Trump was on trial for falsifying business records. Key prosecution witness and former Trump attorney Michael Cohen calmly batted away a second day of defense questions about his honesty and motives.

But on the street right outside the front doors, a prankster tried to release dozens of pro-Trump helium balloons from the back of a U-Haul truck.

He managed to send only a dozen or so sailing slowly skyward before court officers ordered him to cut it out.

The balloons were shiny and pink, and bore images of judges and prosecutors who have offended Donald Trump over the past two years, including special prosecutor Jack Smith and the hush-money judge, New York Supreme Court Justice Juan Merchan.

Others depicted Alvin Bragg, the Manhattan district attorney who won the felony indictment now on trial.

There were anti-Trump antics outside court on Thursday as well.

At one point, hecklers yelled "Beetlejuice" at Rep. Lauren Boebert of Colorado, and one tried to hand her a copy of a "Beetlejuice The Musical" playbill to autograph.

They were not trying to summon Michael Keaton's famous character, but rather trolling the Trump ally over her now-infamous episode, in which she was kicked out of a Colorado production of the "Beetlejuice" musical after being loud and getting handsy with her date.

She later apologized for her actions at the theater.

Republican members of the far-right House Freedom Caucus became the latest group of loyal Trump followers to mount an al fresco show of support for the former president.

Their presence is about more than just loyalty. As Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida outlined, they can attack witnesses in ways Trump cannot due to his gag order. Merchan has threatened to jail Trump if he runs afoul of the order again.

"We're here of our own volition because there are things we can say that President Trump is unjustly not allowed to say," Gaetz told reporters.

By day's end on Thursday, one deflated penis balloon had switched sides.

It wound up as part of a "Convict Trump" sign being waved outside the nearby federal courthouse, where another jury had just heard opening statements in the corruption trial of Sen. Robert Menendez, a Democrat from New Jersey.

Other political protests around the courthouse have been more muted during the trial's five weeks. (Testimony may conclude as early as Monday, the judge said Thursday.)

Pro-Trump crowds there rarely exceeded 50 people.

But that was not the case on Thursday, when even the trash cans were themed.

• Ukraine's Western allies have promised to send it more long-range missiles.
• Kyiv has already demonstrated it can use ATACMS and Storm Shadows to hit high-value Russian targets.
• Former US military officers say more of these missiles will expose Russia on the battlefield.

NATO countries are outfitting Ukraine with additional long-range precision missiles that have already been used by the country to strike Russian airfields, naval headquarters, bridges, and other high-value targets.

These Western-provided missiles give Ukraine's deep-strike capability a major firepower boost. Former US military officers told Business Insider that the munitions could help Kyiv go after locations that are essential to Russia's operations, and leave its combat and support forces with "nowhere to hide."

Ukraine is facing Russian offensives that may get more intense going into the summer, but these weapons could help hamstring Moscow's efforts.

"If you're worried about Russian forces overrunning your defenses, you want to go after the headquarters and you want to go after the logistics that would enable Russian attacks," said Ben Hodges, a retired lieutenant general and former commander of US Army Europe.

The US last month acknowledged that it had secretly shipped Ukraine a number of MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile Systems, also known as ATACMS — earlier this spring as part of a $300 million weapons package it announced in March. The number of missiles isn't publicly known, but ATACMS missiles average about $1.3 million each.

Jake Sullivan, the Biden administration's national security advisor, said in late April that the US would send Ukraine more ATACMS after passing a $61 billion aid package that spent months held up by Republicans in Congress. The legislation required that Washington transfer the munitions.

ATACMS are tactical ballistic missiles that come in several variants. Ukraine previously received ones that have a range of 100 miles and can disperse nearly 1,000 submunitions over a large area, making them particularly damaging to airfields. Last fall, Kyiv used the missiles for that exact purpose.

The US also has ATACMS that can travel up to 190 miles; one variant has a unitary warhead, while the other can scatter some 300 submunitions. Ukraine has long pressed Washington for these extended-range missiles, though it's unclear what Kyiv has actually obtained.

Around the same time, in late April, the UK announced it would send Ukraine additional Storm Shadow cruise missiles as part of the country's largest-ever weapons package (£500 million, or $633 million), which included over 1,600 strike and air-defense munitions.

Days later, Britain's defense minister Grant Shapps disclosed for the first time that Italy had, at some point, also supplied Kyiv with Storm Shadow cruise missiles (France has sent Kyiv its own version of the munition called SCALP-EG).

These air-dropped missiles can fly at low altitudes to avoid detection and have been used to strike Russian naval headquarters and vehicle-repair depots in the occupied Crimean peninsula. Their 155-mile range puts them in between the ATACMS variants.

It's unclear exactly how many ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles have already arrived in Ukraine this spring, nor is it known how many more the country can expect to receive in the coming weeks as it tries to stall Russia's momentum on the ground. Kyiv previously obtained a limited number of both munitions from the US and its European allies.

A larger arsenal of missiles could strip Russia of its ability to stage crucial assets within 100 miles of the front lines, said Dan Rice, a former US Army artillery officer who previously served as a special advisor to Ukrainian military leadership. "That puts tremendous pressure on all of their key high-value targets."

"You have a 600-mile front and then you've got a hundred miles deep — where do you hide everything?" said Rice, a longtime advocate for sending cluster munitions to Ukraine and now the president of American University Kyiv. "Your transportation nodes, your railway stations, your supply depots, command and control — most importantly, your anti-aircraft systems."

Ukraine's battlefield reach has steadily grown throughout the full-scale war. What started out with short-range artillery improved over time with the arrival of US-provided High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS. These game-changing weapons suddenly put Russian logistics centers, ammunition dumps, and command and control nodes within firing range.

Russia adapted to the HIMARS by moving its critical assets out of reach and jamming the munitions. The arrival of Storm Shadow missiles — and, several months later, ATAMCS — presented new challenges for Moscow, but Ukraine has received so few it has had to bee choosy over what to target.

Hodges and Rice say a larger arsenal of ATACMS and Storm Shadows can give Ukraine both the reach and inventory to smash the high-value targets that sustain Moscow's war efforts like supply depots and maintenance facilities. Indeed, Kyiv has used the American missiles in recent weeks to strike Russian airfields and troop gatherings.

"When you start taking those off the board, then it doesn't matter how much untrained, mass infantry — cannon fodder — that the Russians have," Hodges said. "I think long-range precision strike is becoming the dominant factor on the battlefield."

Missiles like ATACMS and Storm Shadow "will enable Ukraine to neutralize Russia's advantages and eventually enable them to regain the initiative," he added. Ukraine has also long sought Germany's Taurus missile, whose range is more than a 100 miles farther than ATACMS, but Berlin has so far declined to provide them.

The increased arsenal comes at a critical point. Russia is making gains on the battlefield as its bigger war industry shifts to mass-producing the drones and glide bombs that are pounding Ukraine's defenses.

Ultimately, however, the effectiveness of Kyiv's long-range strike regime depends on how many munitions it receives — and how it uses them. Ukraine had long been restricted to using ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles only inside occupied territory, although the UK recently agreed to let Kyiv use its weapons to strike inside Russia.

Whether or not the US follows suit remains to be seen. Analysts and officials have said that US restrictions went on to prevent Ukraine from putting up an effective defense and have essentially allowed Russia to conduct a new assault in the northeastern Kharkiv region.

The advances appear to be the start of Moscow's anticipated summer offensive, as Ukrainian forces are increasingly stretched out across the front, Jack Watling, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute think tank, warned in an analysis this week.

"The outlook in Ukraine is bleak," Watling said. "However, if Ukraine's allies engage now to replenish Ukrainian munitions stockpiles, help to establish a robust training pipeline, and make the industrial investments to sustain the effort, then Russia's summer offensive can be blunted, and Ukraine will receive the breathing space it needs to regain the initiative."

• Biden is withholding some military aid to Israel over concerns with its war in Gaza.
• House Republicans put forward a bill designed to force Biden to deliver that aid anyway.
• All but a handful of House Democrats voted against it.

16 House Democrats on Thursday voted for a bill designed to force President Joe Biden to provide all military aid to Israel — or risk the defunding of crucial national security-related offices.

That included Reps. Matthew Cartwright of Pennsylvania, Greg Landsman of Ohio, Jared Golden of Maine, and Tom Suozzi and Ritchie Torres of New York.

Three Republicans — including Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky, Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, and Warren Davidson of Ohio — voted against it.

The bill easily passed the House on an otherwise party-line vote, with almost every Republican voting for it and the vast majority of Democrats voting against it.

But it will not be taken up in the Democratic-controlled Senate and President Joe Biden has threatened to veto the bill, which was proposed by Republicans after Biden revealed that he was withholding some offensive weapons from Israel over concerns about the Jewish state's invasion Rafah, a city in southern Gaza where hundreds of thousands of Palestinian refugees are located.

Republicans in particular have sought to hit Biden for that move, including Rep. Cory Mills of Florida, a Republican who voted against Israel aid but has now introduced articles of impeachment against Biden for withholding that aid.

Specifically, the "Israel Security Assistance Support Act" does the following:

• condemns Biden's decision and calls on him to provide all of the approved aid to Israel;
• strips the salaries of any State Department or Pentagon employees who assist in withholding aid;
• withholds funding for the Secretary of Defense, Secretary of State, and the National Security Council until all of the withheld aid has been delivered.

The White House told members of Congress on Tuesday that it strongly opposes the bill, arguing that it "would undermine the President's ability to execute an effective foreign policy" and that it could "lead to spiraling unintended consequences" by constraining the president's ability to adjust assistance levels in the future.

House Democratic leadership also pushed rank-and-file members hard to vote against the bill, prompting at least one Democrat to avoid stating his position ahead of time.

"I know how I'm gonna vote, and nothing's gonna move me off of that," said Rep. Jared Golden of Maine, one of the most vulnerable swing-district Democrats in the House.

Jewish Democrats ended up being split on the bill, with several of them arguing that Republicans were merely attempting to use Israel as a wedge to divide Democrats.

Among them was Rep. Greg Landsman of Ohio, who told Business Insider in a statement that he would vote for the bill while calling on Republicans to amend it. He also argued more "clarity" is needed from the Biden administration on its Israel policy.

Since October 7, the House has taken a variety of Israel-related votes that have split House Democrats, including one that equated anti-Zionism with antisemitism and another that was designed to crack down on campus antisemitism but faced free speech-related criticism.

Last month, 37 House Democrats voted against a bill to provide the military aid to Israel that Biden is now partially withholding.

This story will be updated with a full list of the House Democrats who voted for the bill when it becomes available via the House Clerk.