Author: openjargon

• Rental price growth is outpacing wage growth in most US cities, especially in New York.
• However, cities like Austin, Portland, and Salt Lake City have seen wages grow faster than rent.
• The gap between income and cost of living continues to widen, even in cities with strong wage growth.

It's a tough time to be a renter.

A new Zillow and StreetEasy analysis finds that rental price growth is far outpacing wage growth in most big cities — and New Yorkers are particularly screwed. In New York City, rents increased seven times as fast as wages from 2022 to 2023. Similarly, renters in Boston, Cincinnati, and Buffalo are seeing their wage growth dwarfed by their rent increases.

But it's not all bad news for prospective and current tenants: There are still a handful of cities where wage growth has outpaced rent increases.

Notably, some of these cities — including Austin, Portland, Oregon, and Salt Lake City — are among the trendiest in the country. Wages grew more than 5% between 2022 and 2023 in San Jose, Houston, Salt Lake City, Minneapolis, and Riverside, California. While rents are ticking up in Houston, the city has also seen some of the fastest wage growth in the country.

In some cases, big employers have relocated to these metros, bringing in a slew of well-paid jobs. In Austin, tech companies like Apple, Amazon, and Tesla have helped boost average incomes. And while demand for housing has surged as a result, the metro area has managed to meet that demand with a ton of new housing.

Austin is building homes at twice the rate the rest of the country is, and almost nine times as fast as Los Angeles, San Francisco, and San Diego, The Atlantic reported earlier this year. As a result, rents and home prices have actually fallen steeply in Austin recently. Still, the city has struggled to build the kind of medium-density, middle-income housing it's in desperate need of.

Like much of the rest of the country, Salt Lake City has underbuilt housing since the financial crisis. And like Austin, the city has seen a surge of new residents in recent years, including many escaping sky-high living costs in California. Predictably, home prices are way up. But the city has managed to maintain a much more affordable rental market. While wages rose by 5.5% between 2022 and 2023, rents increased by just 0.8%, the Zillow/StreetEasy report found.

Southern cities like Raleigh and Charlotte, North Carolina, have managed to keep rental increases relatively low — at 1.1% and 1.7%, respectively — while welcoming in lots of transplants.

But even those tempered increases might not mean every resident is thriving. Not all wage growth can be earmarked for rent increases — people do have to buy things like food and clothing — and even in some areas where wages are growing, rent increases have been massive.

In Miami, rents have grown by nearly 53% from 2019; even though wages there slightly outpaced rent growth from 2022 to 2023, rents outgrew wages by 32% from 2019 to 2023. As the report notes, that's left "a huge gap between the income residents are earning and the income they need to afford to live in the area."

That shows there's still an uphill battle for many of the new metro hubs Americans are flocking towards, especially as locals might find themselves priced out by newer residents bringing in bigger-city salaries. After all, if you want to find some native Floridians, they might already be in Georgia or Tennessee.

Have you seen your rent go up faster than your wages, or vice versa? Contact these reporters at jkaplan@businessinsider.com and erelman@businessinsider.com.

• Crystal, 62, has struggled to earn more money while lacking a college degree.
• She anticipates having to work part-time in retirement to supplement Social Security.
• She didn't always expect to be relying on her sole income, and her savings are minimal.

Crystal doesn't see herself enjoying her "golden years" anytime soon.

At 62 years old, Crystal — who requested her last name be withheld for privacy — envisions an ideal world where she could soon set her sights on a comfortable retirement and begin collecting Social Security with enough extra money in the bank to cover all of her expenses.

But that's not the situation she's found herself in. She's worked as an administrative assistant for nearly two decades and said she's barely making more now than she did when she started the job. Her lack of a college degree and the challenges older adults face in the labor market have made it difficult for her to find work elsewhere.

With inflation driving prices up for her basic goods, along with her health expenses and mortgage payments, she sees work — whether full or part-time — in her future.

"I've had the 401(k), but I put pretty much the minimum in it because I need my paycheck to survive," Crystal told Business Insider. "It's a one-income house here, so it's up to me, and there's no extra, really, to save for retirement. And I was always counting on Social Security, knowing I can't live on it only, but I just thought it would be more than what it's going to be."

Crystal has just over $70,000 in savings, according to documents verified by BI, and she anticipates getting around $1,200 a month in Social Security. That would barely be enough to cover her health insurance, she said — and while her mortgage payments on her townhouse are low, she has a ways to go before she will own the house free and clear.

Additionally, she didn't always know she would be relying on just her sole income to get by. Before she got divorced 19 years ago, Crystal said her then-husband was making good wages at his job, and while she was still working during that time, her earnings were "secondary income," used for day-to-day expenses like groceries.

Crystal's concerns are shared widely across her age group. A recent survey from AARP found that, among Americans aged 50 and above, one in five of them reported having no retirement savings — and over half of them don't think they'll have enough money to sustain them in retirement. Separately, a report from the Alliance for Lifetime Income's Retirement Income Institute found that over half of a cohort called "peak boomers," or those born between 1959 and 1964, have $250,000 or less in assets.

It means that a lot of them will primarily rely on Social Security — and the program is projected to no longer be able to pay out full benefits by 2035 unless Congress intervenes.

Crystal said that with all of her daily expenses, her finances are strained, and she doesn't think she'll ever be able to fully retire.

"We're all struggling with food and utilities. Bills are like $65 a month for water, about $80 to $100 for electricity and things like that," she said. "So I'm one of these people that walk around the supermarket with the calculator on my phone and keep track of each thing as I put it in the cart. It's a tight budget."

'It's scary out there'

It's not for a lack of trying. Crystal said that she's done just about all she could to earn more income — she sent out her résumé and filled out dozens of online applications and almost never heard back.

"With my age, I was just not attractive on paper, and not having a college degree was always a factor, too," Crystal said. "I could send out 200 applications and résumés and maybe get two calls and then not even be invited in for an interview."

According to a Wall Street Journal analysis of US Census Bureau data from 2022, 67.2% of adults 55 and older do not have a bachelor's degree. While some jobs, like Walmart, have removed degree requirements from their job postings, the physical demands of that type of work are often unsustainable for older adults.

"I go to the grocery store and I see several of the cashiers here are seniors, quite a bit older than me, and they look so uncomfortable," Crystal said. "I know they're struggling to stand on this concrete floor and bag groceries all day. You can tell they're not happy, but they need that extra money."

Other "peak boomers" have echoed Crystal's concerns. Diane Senffner, a 63-year-old, previously told BI that her age has made it especially challenging to find full-time work after losing her job during the pandemic, and her physical constraints limit what she can do.

"I just say to my friends as a cautionary tale, if you are my age and you have a job, you better stay with it, because nobody is hiring you," Senffner said.

With uncertainty surrounding the future of Social Security — and confusion regarding how much workers actually need to be saved up for retirement — Crystal said that all she can do is hope she'll have enough money to keep her afloat as she gets older.

"It's scary out there," she said. "I want to retire, but I feel like I'm never going to be able to."

Are you concerned about retirement, or have you found a way to prepare? Share your story with this reporter at asheffey@businessinsider.com.

• Immigrants nationwide are relying heavily on gig work driving for Uber and Lyft to make ends meet.
• A lack of English proficiency and work authorization often limits their job options.
• But the job is getting more competitive and drivers say they have to work longer hours for low pay.

Rodolfo has driven over 18,000 Uber rides in South Florida and has a near-perfect rating. Still, he feels trapped.

Adjusting to life in the US after his move from Venezuela five years ago was "extremely difficult," Rodolfo told Business Insider in Spanish. He saw driving for Uber and Lyft as virtually his only option, given he lacked the necessary immigration paperwork and English-language proficiency for higher-paying jobs.

Life has gotten easier since taking up driving, he said. And his job is fulfilling because many of his drives get people to doctors' appointments, assist older Americans on their errands, and allow him to connect with dozens of people a day.

However, he feels the need to "repeat, repeat, repeat" his daily schedule. Some weeks, he's working 50 to 60 hours but only makes $800 to $900 before gas and expenses.

He's not alone. He said he's seen many immigrants become drivers — and the increased competition is hurting his paycheck. It's been harder for him to get higher-paying rides, and he feels forced to accept most rides, including ones for $4 or $5 where he doesn't quite break even.

There are no government or public statistics from ride-hailing companies about the number of immigrants who drive. However, nearly half of all immigrants reported being independent workers, according to a poll of 25,062 adults conducted by Ipsos on behalf of McKinsey and published in August 2022.

For many immigrants, gig work is the only income source they can find, said Katie Wells, a geographer at Georgetown University whose book "Disrupting DC" analyzes Uber's rise in the Washington, DC metro area. Many live a life of waiting — for their new lives to begin, for their remittances to transfer, and for their next passenger.

"This question of migration and the gig economy is not only showing up here; it is showing up across the world as sort of the new Ellis Island, so to speak, for migrant workers," Wells said.

The major ride-hailing companies told BI they aim to support immigrant drivers. In a statement to BI, an Uber spokesperson said the company has a partnership with the language-learning platform Rosetta Stone, as well as a strategic partnership with the International Rescue Committee in support of their global refugee programs.

Uber said it offers in-person support in different languages for drivers and couriers, and its app enables all languages that iOS or Android phones offer. Uber also has supported various US federal government refugee resettlement partners to "help refugees access essential goods and services through rides and deliveries."

A Lyft spokesperson said the company is a low-barrier financial entryway for many people "trying to establish themselves in a new place." The spokesperson said the company is aiming to increase pay and transparency on the app, and that it offers Lyft Rewards drivers discounts to the online language learning app Mango Languages.

BI spoke with a dozen immigrant Uber and Lyft drivers who moved to South Florida from countries including Cuba, El Salvador, Haiti, and Venezuela. Most asked to use only their first names over concerns about professional or personal consequences, but BI verified their identities.

Many said they are grateful that the platforms can help them start life anew. Most, though, outlined challenges such as not earning enough from driving amid heightened competition, the language barrier, not feeling adequately supported on their driver journeys, and feeling like they can't leave the platform due to a lack of other opportunities.

Immigrants feel forced into gig work

Over the past few years, immigration has helped the US's economic rebound. According to an Economic Policy Institute analysis cited by The Washington Post, between January 2023 and January 2024, about 50% of the labor market's growth was from foreign-born workers.

Dozens of ride-hail drivers from across the country who spoke to BI over the last few months said they've recently noticed more immigrant drivers on the apps. Some said they've seen immigrant drivers using fake accounts or borrowing existing accounts from other drivers, and some passengers have told them they've felt unsafe when the driver doesn't look like their profile picture on the platform.

Wells said many immigrants are attracted to driving platforms as they have a low barrier to entry with quick hiring. Drivers don't need strong English proficiency; they just need a driver's license and a car to start. While this allows many drivers to make money, there are inherent risks.

"It's really risky for people that aren't understanding the terms of the work, understanding the risks to be out doing this type of work, but these platforms generally don't seem to care about that," Wells said.

Wells said that without large-scale data, it's impossible to know how much of this workforce consists of recent immigrants. She added that she's seen many immigrant communities unite and build solidarity around driving and delivery work, such as New York City's collective Los Deliveristas Unidos.

It's hard for immigrants to find work outside ride-hailing

Edgar, 60, ran an auto parts business in Venezuela that helped him stay afloat. But when he came to Miami five years ago, fleeing the country's economic collapse, he quickly found that transferring his skills would be challenging.

When he first arrived, he didn't have the proper legal papers to find full-time employment, though that changed when Venezuelan immigrants were granted Temporary Protective Status.

He couldn't find managerial job openings and said his age has been a barrier to breaking into the industry. While he maintains his business in Venezuela, he's spent less time on it. Over two years ago, he applied to drive for Uber and Lyft as a temporary solution, enjoying that he could be his own boss.

"Normally, people like me are retired, not working full-time," Edgar said. "It's difficult to find a job with my skills."

For the last few years, he's driven 40 to 50 hours a week, mostly Monday through Friday, while supporting three kids who are in college or the workforce. According to earnings statements viewed by BI, he makes $700 to $800 a week, which is reduced to $400 to $500 a week after gas and expenses.

"I feel like my earnings are lower than before because Uber has been paying less per mile than last year," Edgar said. "Right now, there is great competition with this job."

D., a Haitian immigrant who's driven for seven years and moved to the US a decade ago, said he enjoys driving though it hasn't given him the level of financial security he's desired. He drives six days a week from 6 a.m. until 4 p.m.; on good days, he can pull in $300 to $400 before expenses, earnings statements confirm. He's had his fair share of rough driving days in Miami that have caused him stress, but he hasn't been able to find other types of employment.

"You have to do it anyway, and if you don't, you won't have anything," he said. "You just have to keep pushing and fighting."

Many of the same factors are at play for the children of immigrants. Alex, 32, was born and raised in South Florida to parents who fled El Salvador. He was raised to work hard but wasn't given many opportunities to attend higher education or get an office job, given his English isn't perfect and his employment history isn't consistent with the demands of white-collar jobs.

To provide for himself and his family, he started driving one to two days a week for Uber in February, in addition to working as an Amazon Flex driver. On average, he said he pulls in $150 a day for Uber after expenses. However, constant traffic has impeded his earnings. He said he makes more daily with Amazon Flex, which pays hourly and provides overtime.

It's hard for immigrant drivers to find alternatives, but some make it work

Most immigrants who spoke to BI said they've applied to all sorts of jobs, from maintenance and construction gigs to restaurants and retail positions, though they haven't had luck getting hired. Some say they suspect it's because of the language barrier, a lack of proper documentation, or limited employment experience.

For instance, Eliezer, an Uber driver from Nicaragua with a nearly 5.0-star rating for two years, said he doesn't know if he'll be driving for much longer, although he hasn't had any leads on other work.

He acknowledged that his earnings were not enough to live comfortably, but he didn't know what other jobs he could get with his résumé and work experience. He prioritizes driving around Miami Beach, and some weeks, he puts in 70 hours to make enough.

"I don't want to be driving for all my life, but this job permits me to travel to my country or other countries because I don't have to ask for permission when I want to go," Eliezer said, referring to requesting time off from a manager.

Some immigrants have successfully gotten other jobs and have relied on driving as supplemental income, leading some to live more comfortably.

Carlos, who immigrated from Venezuela, drives part-time to supplement his real estate work, noting gig driving is an insufficient full-time job. While this year's spring break was much less crowded than in past years, which put a dent in his earnings, there weren't as many fights or security problems as in past years.

Nicanor, who left Cuba in 1997 and moved to New York before landing in Miami, drives for Uber a few days a month to supplement his full-time truck driving. He likes the part-time arrangement, which pulls in a few hundred dollars a month, allows him to focus on a job with more consistent earnings, and socialize.

"I don't want to stay in the house and be alone," he said, adding that he doesn't have much family in the area.

Despite the challenges of earning enough, some drivers are set on perfecting strategies to make driving work for them. Especially since they've faced repeated disappointment getting hired in other sectors.

For Keylis, a young mother and recent immigrant from Cuba, driving for Uber has been "the best thing that has happened to me," she said in Spanish. She worked another job when she first got to the US that wasn't as financially stable, plus she enjoys being her own boss.

She said she makes about $1,200 a week driving around downtown Miami after expenses, and she has little intention of stopping driving as her income is stable enough.

Still, she isn't sure she will have enough saved for a comfortable retirement.

Are you a gig driver who is struggling to make ends meet? Have you recently immigrated from a different country? Reach out to this reporter at nsheidlower@businessinsider.com.

• Ransomware attackers are targeting children's phones to extort big companies.
• As companies improve defenses, attackers are becoming more creative, security experts say.
• Mandiant CTO Charles Carmakal said attackers have "no rules of engagement."

It's 10 p.m., do you know where your children's phones are?

They could be getting SIM swapped.

As corporations amp up their cyber defenses, malicious hackers are getting more creative, reports Mandiant, a leading cybersecurity firm and Google subsidiary. Hackers are even going so far as to target the children of corporate executives in the hopes of holding personal information ransom — an attack known as ransomware.

Ransomware attacks typically come from malicious actors who hack into companies or other entities to steal data, which they then hold until the victim agrees to pay a fee. The attacks leave the victims unable to access the stolen data, which can cripple the institution until the ransom is paid.

The attacks have become more common in the United States in recent years, most famously when a Russian hacker took down a 5,000-mile gas pipeline on the East Coast in 2021.

In February, ransomware attackers targeted Chain Healthcare, the payment management arm of healthcare giant UnitedHealth Group, causing backlogs in prescription insurance claims.

Ransomware can be introduced to a company's databases through even the smallest slip by an employee, like clicking a link in a phishing email. But as companies have gotten better at keeping criminals out, the crooks have gotten more creative, Mandiant CTO Charles Carmakal says.

Speaking at the RSA Conference in San Francisco — an annual gathering of cybersecurity experts — earlier this week, Carmakal said some of the attackers have "no rules of engagement," even targeting executive's kids, according to The Register, a tech news publication.

"We saw situations where threat actors essentially SIM swap the phones of children of executives — and start making phone calls to executives — from the phone numbers of their children," Carmakal said, according to the outlet.

SIM swapping is when criminals gain remote access to your cellphone's SIM card and then route control of incoming and outgoing calls and messages to their own phone.

Carmakal said the ransomware hackers use different methods of getting access to cellphones, including, in some cases, simply spoofing a fake caller ID.

"Think about the psychological dilemma that the executive goes through — seeing a phone call from the children, picking up the phone, and hearing that it's somebody else's voice?" Carmakal said.

Carmakal said these kinds of scams put an extra burden on the executive, who has to choose between protecting customers and their own employees and their families.

"That's a pretty scary shift," he said.

In a December Google Cloud security forecast, Carmakal said Google expected to see an uptick this year in younger malicious actors using newer techniques for cyber crimes, like social engineering through text messages.

The best way to protect yourself from ransomware is to avoid visiting suspicious websites, never open file attachments from someone you don't know, and be wary of links on social media, Microsoft says.

• Wes Fisher worked as a teacher when he signed his first government contract in 2020.
• Fisher spends about an hour a day managing his contracts — he now has 14.
• The ability to work remotely has given him the opportunity to travel and work on personal projects.

This as-told-to essay is based on a conversation with Wes Fisher, a 35-year-old government contractor. This essay has been edited for length and clarity. Business Insider verified his identity, contracts, and earnings.

I used to be a special-ed teacher at a public school in Ohio, making around $50,000 annually. I worked with students who faced a wide range of challenges and it was tough work.

During the pandemic, I decided I would use my stimulus check to invest in a course. I looked into Amazon, crypto, day trading, and Airbnb.

One day, I stumbled upon someone in a podcast interview talking about working as a "middleman" for the government. The rest is history.

Working as a middleman

There are different kinds of roles involved in government contracting. I work as a middleman, which means I'm the prime contractor and I bid on the opportunity. To do so, I go to sam.gov and register my company.

The government then gives me an identifier called a cage code, which is attached to my company. Then I bid on the contracts myself by submitting a proposal, which explains how much I plan to charge and how I will do the work.

If I win an opportunity, I hire subcontractors to do the work.

For example, if I were to get a contract for chimney cleaning, I would partner with a professional chimney cleaning company. They would do the work and I would manage the deal.

The middleman strategy works because the government is looking for value-added services. A company may be great at what they do, but it may not know about government opportunities or how the bidding process works. My role is to get in touch with companies that can do the job and then make sure they complete it.

I manage the team's schedule, invoice their hours, and do the administrative tasks.

People are attracted to this job because it can be done here at my house with my computer. I have contracts in California, Nevada, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Florida and Louisiana. I have a contract in Louisiana for pest control, but I'm not the one setting up the traps.

I don't physically do it, but I add the value of coordinating the deal and making sure the job gets done.

I've signed 14 contracts

I've signed 14 contracts since I started in 2020 and I have five active contracts that I'm running and getting paid for. I've signed contracts in all kinds of sectors, including landscaping, HVAC cleaning, and construction.

My first contract was for Catholic services in the federal prison in California. I'm not Catholic and I don't live in California, but I won a five-year contract for Catholic services.

So I found a chaplain to do the job. I've only spoken to him on the phone and I don't even know what he looks like. But when he goes to that prison, I get paid.

Eventually, I signed a five-year contract to lease fleet vehicles to Forest Services in Utah, in which the government could request up to $1 million in vehicle orders.

As a pre-approved vendor for this contract, the government could choose my company to carry out the orders over a five-year period and pay up to $1 million. I get paid in increments depending on the length of my contracts and I also have to pay my subcontractors — so I don't get a $1 million paycheck from that contract.

But overall, I'm managing the deals from afar and made a profit of around $75,000 last year from government contracting without doing the physical work.

I put in about an hour of work on government contracting every day

I spend about an hour a day on government contracting. I'm not the one cutting the grass, so there's nothing for me to do on a day-to-day basis with my contracts.

I have a team member that I work with now as well, and we work on finding opportunities, getting quotes, and submitting proposals. I submit one proposal a day to the federal government because it's not about getting rich tomorrow, it's about securing as many contracts as possible.

It takes me about two or three minutes to find 10 opportunities available, then about 10 minutes to look up companies that do the job, and then I spend the rest of the hour calling them and seeing who would be interested and available for the job.

I'm not always submitting the proposal that same day, but I'm in a continuous cycle of identifying opportunities and I always have companies in the pipeline for proposals.

The mobility freedom has been a game changer

The biggest difference with my lifestyle now is I can stay at home and make more money while doing so. That's a level of freedom I never had before.

Now that I've won multiple contracts, I also have time to work on other personal projects. Since starting this work, I've been able to create my own online course in government contracting.

The lifestyle change has given me the opportunity to travel at my own discretion. Dubai and Jamaica were my biggest highlights last year.

I recently went on a spontaneous train ride from Chicago to San Francisco. My friend texted me and asked me if I wanted to go, and I thought, why not? I'm currently on a trip in Panama.

Have you found success in government contracting? Email the reporter at aaltchek@insider.com.

• Warren Buffett is selling stocks because he's getting out at the market high, Paul Dietrich told BI.
• The Berkshire Hathaway CEO will pile back in once a crash or recession hits, the strategist said.
• Berkshire cashed in stocks like Apple last quarter, raising its cash pile to a record $189 billion.

Warren Buffett is cashing in stocks like Apple because he knows the good times won't last — but he'll spend big once disaster strikes, a veteran strategist says.

"He is selling out of one of the most overvalued stock markets in history at the 'high' and once there is a serious correction or recession, I am sure he will, as he always does, start redeploying those assets back into the market at much lower prices," Paul Dietrich told Business Insider.

B. Riley Wealth Management's chief investment strategist was referring to Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway selling more than $17 billion of stocks on a net basis last quarter — its biggest three-month disposal in years.

Berkshire offloaded 13% of its monster stake in Apple, which accounted for virtually all the sales.

The conglomerate's disposals fueled a $21 billion increase in its stack of cash and Treasurys to a record $189 billion. Buffett predicted the money mountain would exceed $200 billion by the end of June.

The famed investor sees no problem holding that much cash given the backdrop, he said during Berkshire's annual shareholder meeting on May 4: "When I look at the alternative of what's available, in the equity markets, and I look at the composition of what's going on in the world, we find it quite attractive."

Dietrich told BI that he's been a Berkshire investor for more than 30 years, most of his client portfolios contain Berkshire stock. He's also read all of Buffett's annual reports and many articles and books about him.

Dietrich underscored that as a value investor, Buffett prizes underpriced assets and avoids expensive ones.

"He is doing what he always tells other investors to do," he said. "It is the advice your grandmother gave you as a little boy: 'Buy low and sell high.'"

"You don't need to be a brain surgeon to know the last few months were the right time to sell out of the stock market and get out at the 'high'."

High prices and other sellers

The benchmark S&P 500 stock index has surged by 26% in the past 12 months, and 73% since the start of 2020, to trade at a record level. Apple, which remains Buffett's largest stock holding by far, has more than tripled in value since he finished building the position in 2018.

Dietrich pointed out that several of the world's wealthiest stockholders — including Amazon's Jeff Bezos, JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon, Meta's Mark Zuckerberg, and the heirs to the Walmart fortune — have sold shares in their companies in recent months, signaling they believe it's a good time to cash out.

Buffett may be getting out while the going's good, but he'll be ready to pile back in when everyone else is fleeing, Dietrich said.

The investor has repeatedly underscored the value of a huge cash reserve, not just to weather tough times but also to strike deals on attractive terms and scoop up cut-price assets during downturns.

Buffett famously struck lucrative deals with a raft of companies during the Great Recession including Goldman Sachs, General Electric, Mars, Harley-Davidson, and Dow Chemical.

It's worth noting that Dietrich has been warning about a devastating downturn for a while, yet the stock market and economy have defied his and other commentators' dire forecasts for years now.

• Trump has threatened to quit NATO. A wargame examined the possible ramifications.
• The US player abandoned Ukraine and ceased NATO participation, triggering crisis in Europe.  
• The game's designer says it showed Trump "doesn't need to leave NATO to ruin it."

If Donald Trump wins a second term in the White House in November, NATO may fall apart, a recent wargame found.

As a presidential candidate, Trump has threatened to quit NATO unless European allies contribute more, and should he carry it out Europe may decide to go it alone on defense, the game suggests. "A US policy of frustrating NATO has the potential to cause the alliance to collapse, with the EU as a candidate for eventually replacing NATO's ultimate function — defending Europe from Russia," wrote Finley Grimble, the British defense expert who designed and ran the game.

The US doesn't have to withdraw from NATO to imperil the 75-year-old alliance. Technically, the US is barred from leaving NATO after Congress voted in 2023 to prohibit withdrawal without congressional approval.

But the game showed how Trump — the presumptive Republican presidential nominee who said on the campaign trail that he'd encourage Russia to "do whatever the hell they want" with NATO allies who spend too little on their militaries — could undermine NATO simply by doing as little as possible to support the alliance. "What Donald Trump can do is just really hollow out what NATO does," Grimble told Business Insider. "He doesn't need to leave NATO to ruin it. He can ruin it from within."

Grimble, who has conducted wargames for the British government, conceived of this game after claims by former US National Security Adviser John Bolton that he talked then-President Trump out of withdrawing from NATO in 2018. He designed a tabletop simulation where the players — mostly British specialists in defense, intelligence and foreign policy — assumed the role of leaders of the 32 NATO nations, plus Ukraine and Russia; China was played by the umpires. The US was played by an American who "was trying to enter into the psyche of Trump, which was no easy task," Grimble recalled.

Trump, who faces criminal charges in four separate cases, has been criticized for sowing chaos in American politics. And chaos is exactly what happens in the game when the fictional Trump takes office in January 2025.

The new administration immediately attempts to broker a peace deal — without European help — between Ukraine and Russia. After the mediation fails, Trump slashes aid to Ukraine.

It is the first domino to fall. Trump then drastically reduces US participation in NATO, including redeployment of 50 percent of American military assets in Europe, where more than 100,000 US troops are based, to the Indo-Pacific theater. The Trump administration also institutes a new policy called "dormancy." This includes a variety of go-slow tactics, such as less US participation in NATO exercises. A particularly damaging move is to bar the Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) — the second-highest military position in NATO, and always a US officer — from acting without prior consultation with Washington.

"Ultimately, SACEUR is answerable to the president of the United States," said Grimble. "So he [SACEUR] can start slowing things down, or prevent things from happening. The US can just take the funding from NATO programs and they will collapse."

As the game continued, the US complains that some NATO members are failing to meet the alliance's goal of 2 percent of each nation's GDP on defense (the real-life Trump recently urged 3 percent). The complaints are valid: by the end of the game in 2027, many members still hadn't reached the 2 percent goal. Interestingly, while the US minimizes its presence in NATO, it does continue bilateral defense cooperation with the NATO members bordering Russia, including Finland, Romania, Poland and the Baltic States.

NATO was created four years after the end of World War II in an attempt to avoid the failures of the interwar years. American security guarantees have precluded European powers from re-arming in exchange for the greater expenses borne by the US. But with this US security umbrella suddenly diminishing in the game, France and Germany call for the European Union to take over from NATO. This angers Poland, which saw this as an attempt by the French to kick the US out and to have France become the top military power in Europe.

Some NATO members also quail at the thought that they might actually have to fight Russia without support from America, the most powerful NATO member given the size of its conventional forces and nuclear arsenal. "If I'm Italy, for example, I'm certainly guaranteeing the security of Estonia," Grimble said. "But I'm not really expecting to have to play such a prominent and crucial role in this."

The Joint Expeditionary Force, a British-led military coalition of 10 Northern European nations that can operate independently of NATO, begins to make warfighting plans that assume there will be no NATO support. Turkey ponders whether to stay neutral —despite its NATO commitments — if Russia attacked the Baltic States.

Meanwhile, with its campaign in Ukraine stalemated, Russia mulls invading the Baltic States — which are NATO members — to take advantage of NATO disunity and perhaps split the alliance over willingness to risk war with Moscow. But the Russian player ultimately decides that Russia doesn't have the resources to fight Ukraine and occupy the Baltics — and invading NATO territory just might bring America back into the alliance.

However, fictional Moscow does launch new offensives in Ukraine. Bereft of US support — which Europe is unable to compensate for — Ukraine feels compelled to sign a peace that cedes eastern Ukraine to Russia and installs a pro-Russian government in Kyiv. Europe faces another problem: fear that Russia might attack NATO is scaring off domestic and international investors, causing European economies to stumble.

By the end of the game, the effects of a US pullback from NATO are global. China realizes that the US has really shifted its focus from Europe to the Pacific, which deters Beijing from invading Taiwan. Yet this doesn't reassure Japan, Australia and South Korea — US allies whose forces and bases are essential to efforts to counter China — which worry that Trump might change his mind and abandon them too. Iran becomes emboldened to assert its power in the Middle East, which spurs an arms race with Saudi Arabia.

All of which left the British frustrated. The UK has traditionally backed a transatlantic, America-Europe alliance rather than a purely European defense bloc. Yet in the game, it could neither persuade Trump to ease his demands, nor the European NATO members to spend more on defense. "The British felt, 'for God's sakes, Trump, give the Europeans some time,'" Grimble said. "But also, 'Europeans, please do something. Let's all come to an accord and keep NATO alive.'"

Wargaming experts always caution that games shouldn't be treated as predictors of the future, but only as experiments to explore possibilities. Nonetheless, this wargame seemed to confirm the worst fears of critics who believe Trump could destroy NATO and make Europe vulnerable to attack.

"The US had reduced its resourcing of the NATO deterrence and defense missions, meaning NATO did not have credible warfighting plans ready to deal with a Russian invasion," said Grimble. "The whole thing had become dysfunctional. It certainly wasn't in any position to coherently defend against Russia at the end of the game."

Yet at the same time, there was a genuine desire to keep NATO alive. "Many NATO members — except for France mainly — thought post-Trump it could be salvageable," Grimble said. "So it was necessary to keep the US in, keep it together, and rebuild later."

Michael Peck is a defense writer whose work has appeared in Forbes, Defense News, Foreign Policy magazine, and other publications. He holds an MA in political science from Rutgers Univ. Follow him on Twitter and LinkedIn.

• Googleplex is the global headquarters for Google and Alphabet, located in Mountain View, California.
• Google recently expanded Googleplex's campus to add more amenities for employees.
• Googleplex is one of dozens of US-based offices; Google has another headquarters in New York City.

The Googleplex, the global headquarters for Google and its parent company Alphabet, is located in Mountain View, California.

The name Googleplex has two meanings. First, it's a portmanteau of "Google" and "complex." But it has an additional significance that connects to the origin of Google's name.

A "googol" is a totally massive number, and the source of the tech giant's name. A googolplex is equal to 10 to the googol power.

The Googleplex campus spans about 12 acres of land with over 3 million square feet of office space. It is Google's largest headquarters, closely rivaled by its nearly 3-million-square-foot office building in Manhattan.

Google co-founders Sergey Brin and Larry Page rented out their friend Susan Wojcicki's garage to use as office space when the company was first incorporated in 1998. Just a few years later, in 2006, Google purchased the Googleplex for $319 million.

The company's headquarters, where Google CEO Sundar Pichai spends his work days, has since undertaken a number of expansions, including one in 2019 that added over 30,000 square feet of new space. The Googleplex expansion included multiple cafes, fitness facilities, and lounge areas. The design theme is based on the historical salt production that took place in the local marshes.

How many Google headquarters are there in the US?

There are more than 70 offices in 50 countries around the world, according to the company's website. 

In the United States, Google's footprint covers well over two dozen cities, including Miami, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Boulder, Chicago, and Portland.

Google's office sites are often unique buildings that reflect the history of the cities where they're located.

For instance, the Pittsburgh office is located in a former Nabisco factory, its Chicago office is a converted cold storage facility, and its LA office is located in a historic airplane hangar. Google DeepMind is located in an 11-storey building in Kings Cross, London.

Google's New York headquarters, located in an old train terminal next to the Hudson River, opened in February 2024. The new HQ features rooftop solar panels, multiple terraces and gardens, an event space, and communal workspaces and lounges.

It's unclear exactly how many employees work at the Googleplex in California. But altogether, Alphabet, Google's parent company, employed some 182,500 workers as of 2023.

The Googleplex's famous amenities — including gardens, fitness classes, and "MicroKitchens" — have long drawn tech workers to seek out prestigious Google jobs.

Can you go inside Google headquarters?

Its quirky and technologically advanced design has turned the Googleplex into a tourist attraction in the Bay Area.

While you can't enter the buildings without being accompanied by an authorized employee, you are free to walk the grounds of the complex. You can check out the tyrannosaurus rex statue that's meant to remind employees to stay on the cutting edge and avoid becoming dinosaurs, the Android sculpture park, the gardens that grow food for the campus restaurants, sports fields, and more.

If you're looking for more than self-guided wandering, you can head next door to Google's Gradient Canopy office, which is home to the Google Visitor Experience. You can attend workshops and other events at the Huddle, check out local goods at Google's pop-up shop, visit cafes and the Google Store, and take in interesting outdoor art installations on the Plaza.

• OpenAI may unveil a new multimodal AI assistant on Monday, The Information reported.
• This technology could, in theory, help automated customer service agents detect sarcasm.
• The new model could also be integrated into OpenAI's chatbot ChatGPT.

Wannabe stand-up comedians and frustrated customers, beware: The robot phone operators may not find your deadpan insults amusing in the future.

The Information reported that machine learning company OpenAI could unveil a voice assistant with both audio and visual capabilities that could, in theory, detect sarcasm.

Finally.

According to one person with knowledge of the new tech who spoke with The Information, the mystery assistant could improve on the automated customer service agent technology the company already offers.

The AI assistant — which can talk to users and recognize objects and images — could have many other features, of course, the outlet reported, citing two people who have seen it themselves. These features include "a better understanding of image and audio" and "better logical reasoning," per the report.

The technology could be revealed as soon as Monday during OpenAI's planned livestream announcing updates on their GPT technology.

"The assistant could theoretically do a range of things not possible today, such as acting as a tutor for a student working on a paper or on math problems, or giving people information about their surroundings when they ask for it, like translating signs or explaining how to fix car troubles," the report said.

The new multimodal model is still prone to AI hallucinations — a phenomenon where models spit out answers that have no basis in reality — a person familiar with it told The Information.

This new tech could eventually be integrated into the publicly available and free version of OpenAI's popular chatbot ChatGPT.

The Information reports the tech will move CEO Sam Altman one step closer to creating a more useful AI assistant similar to the virtual Samantha, played by Scarlett Johansson in the movie "Her" — though hopefully, no one falls in love with it. (That was not sarcasm.)

Representatives for OpenAI did not immediately respond to a request for comment.