Author: openjargon

  • Google says immigration rules are making it hard to hire top AI talent

    Google CEO Sundar Pichai speaking on stage
    • Google wants the US to change immigration rules to help it hire AI talent.
    • It told the US Department of Labor that the list of roles considered scarce must be broadened.
    • The company said its need for AI roles will "increase significantly" in the coming years.

    As the AI wars heat up, Google says immigration rules must change if the US is to attract the talent needed to stay ahead.

    The search giant on Wednesday filed a letter to the US Department of Labor arguing for changes to rules on which types of jobs are considered scarce in the US.

    To get an employment-based green card, foreign-born employees often go through a permanent labor certification process (often referred to as PERM), where their employer must make the case that there is a shortage of available workers in the US to fill the role.

    However, the US Department of Labor has a list of "pre-certified" occupations for which it considers there to be a lack of available talent. The list includes physical therapists and professional nurses, as well as immigrants of "exceptional ability" in the arts and sciences. If you're in one of these roles, the route to a green card is easier and faster.

    Google is arguing that the list, referred to as Schedule A, needs to be broadened to include "critical" AI and cybersecurity-related fields. Google says the list, which was last updated in 2005, needs to be updated more frequently to adapt to changing labor needs.

    "[The] Department originally intended Schedule A to be a tool for responding to labor shortages," the company wrote. "Since it has not been updated in 20 years, Schedule A does not reflect current labor shortages."

    Of course, Google spends a lot of time in the letter underlining the massive opportunity in artificial intelligence and why it's crucial that the immigration rules adapt accordinly.

    "We project that our need for AI Engineer roles, including Software Engineer, Research Engineer, and Research Scientist roles, will increase significantly in the coming years," Google wrote.

    It later added: "AI advancements offer incredible promise, but the lack of skilled professionals threatens to hinder their full potential."

    The Department of Labor previously announced it was considering expanding the list of pre-certified roles to particularly account for STEM occupations (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics), and called for input from companies.

    As Google and just about every other tech company realign themselves around artificial intelligence, there is a red-hot talent war taking place to hire the best and the brightest minds. Google is arguing that it needs to look abroad to close the gap and that there is a shortage of US cybersecurity and AI talent.

    The bar to hiring employees on green cards has also become harder for tech companies that have spent the last two years laying off employees. Companies have to prove that laid-off employees aren't suited for roles offered to foreign workers. They must also notify recently laid-off employees who are potentially suitable for a role before filing a PERM application for a foreign worker.

    Consequently, companies have cut back on offering to put employees on US green card tracks. Amazon recently suspended new green card sponsorships until the end of 2024. Google also hit pause in January 2023 and told employees earlier this year that applications wouldn't open again until Q1 2025 at the earliest, according to an employee with direct knowledge of the matter.

    Are you a current or former Googler with a tip? You can contact Hugh Langley through the encrypted messaging apps Signal and Telegram (628-228-1836) or email.

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  • Some millennial and Gen X parents are leaving it all behind to spend 6 figures on a family gap year. Here’s how they budget and ‘worldschool’ their kids.

    Claire Williams and her family standing in front of Lake Bled, Slovenia/Sri Lanka.
    Claire Williams and her family in Lake Bled, Slovenia/Sri Lanka. They strategically planned to start in the northern hemisphere and end up in the southern hemisphere's summer so they could pack for one season.

    • Some white-collar parents are leaving their jobs to take family gap years.
    • They say it's a reprieve from American life and a way to spend time with their children.
    • Immersive travel is key as parents prioritize local experiences to teach their kids other ways to live.

    Claire Williams and her husband Matt had what you might call a Cadillac problem.

    They were trying to figure out how to best use some money they'd saved. They thought about buying another home or adding an extension to their current one, but while spending time with their kids in quarantine, they realized what they needed more than anything was time.

    "We thought, how do you buy time?" Claire, 40, told Business Insider. "The answer we came up with was stepping off the hamster wheel out of the daily grind."

    So, Matt left his job of 11 years at an architecture and engineering firm and they set off in June 2022 to travel the world for a year with their then 13-,10-, and 7-year-olds to bond, broaden their worldview, and show the kids "that there are many different ways to live, work, and be happy," said Claire, a stay-at-home mom.

    From surfing in Sri Lanka to riding camels in the Sahara, they traveled to six continents and 26 countries. They rented out their Bay Area house, cooked a lot while on the road, and meticulously budgeted for each country, estimating that they spent just shy of $100,000 living abroad for a year, excluding flights, insurance, and back-at-home costs like a storage unit.

    Family gap years like this are a chance for 30- and 40-something white-collar parents who have enough cash to leave their jobs behind to show their kids a different way of life. It's a sabbatical with a twist — the kids are in tow and they're leaving their schools behind, too. Parents said they typically mix homeschooling on the road with worldschooling, which prioritizes immersive travel as education.

    For a certain set, making a non-traditional move like leaving it all behind to take your kids around the world became even more appealing when the pandemic forced us to rethink life's possibilities.

    It's sticking around as the world somewhat normalizes; Reddit is littered with threads looking for family gap year advice, which posters can easily find in various blogs. Travel with immediate family is the top travel trend for 2024, per travel network Virtuoso's Luxe Report. Parents said that while traveling for a year makes finding alone time hard and planning on the go is tiring, the family time is priceless and it can be an escape from the stresses of the modern American economy.

    'We wanted to enjoy our kids while we were still their favorite people'

    The 2020s economic landscape sent some families packing their bags. More than 50 million Americans quit their jobs in 2022 as burnout and work stress soared. Inflation hit a 40-year high, leading to the Federal Reserve trying to fight back by raising interest rates.

    At the same time, those who owned real estate and stocks saw a major spike in wealth, and those who worked from home found increased flexibility, both sparking new possibilities in lifestyle.

    Jennifer Spatz, founder of Global Family Travels, said she started receiving requests two-and-a-half-years ago in a newly vaccinated world from families looking to travel and educate their children for a year. She now offers a family gap year and extended travel planning service for $80 to $100 an hour. Once itineraries are approved, she works with travel partners to collect commissions on hotels and experiences.

    "It could expand into a big business," she said, adding that her family gap year clients typically have disposable income and kids around 8 to 11 years old. Parents agreed that pre-high school years are the prime time, while kids are young enough to still value family time and old enough to absorb new experiences.

    "We wanted to enjoy our kids while we were still their favorite people," said Amy Chang, 44. "If we took time off when they get to high school or college, that doesn't do us any good in building relationships with them because they're going to have their own lives by then."

    Chang and her husband Allen were among the 63% of physicians burned out after working through COVID-19. She said their jobs put them in a privileged position to save money, as did having few student loans, living in a house they could afford on one salary, and driving the same car for 12 years. With a solid financial cushion to cover a year's mortgage and traveling, they left central Massachusetts with their then 9- and 7-year-olds in August 2022 for a road trip around the US to visit national parks before heading off to Asia and Europe.

    Amy Chang and her family in Venice, Italy
    Amy Chang and her family in Venice, Italy, in June 2023. She said she and her husband felt their kids' childhood was slipping by and they weren't as big a part of it as they wanted to be.

    They rented an RV from a local family, cooked on the go, and stayed in Airbnbs. They stayed under budget, which included their savings plus room for an emergency fund after returning home.

    "Even though it was a huge expense, it was worth it…even if it means working a little longer on the tail end of our careers," she said.

    World lessons, no classroom required

    No family gap year is complete without immersive travel. Parents said they've read "The Iliad" while in Greece, attended worship services from different religions, and taught their kids how to navigate a foreign city — all parts of their desire to provide their kids with real-world schooling.

    They typically value regenerative tourism, which involves giving back and positively impacting places as you travel. They want a local's experience rather than a cruise or all-inclusive resort, Spatz said. She often plans trips that involve work and education aligned with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, like gender equality or access to clean water. For example, one of her families will be wrapping up their gap year in July in a remote Nepal village, working with a woman who started a school.

    "It's learning about the different cultures and history, but taking the kids out of that traditional classroom," she said.

    Claire wanted to "get beyond the surface" by participating in Workaway, in which they stayed with local families in exchange for helping them around the home. In Sydney, Australia, they helped a family clean chicken coops on a 300-acre cattle farm. In Santiago, Chile, they helped care for baby quails on a poultry farm. It allowed them to save money and live with locals side-by-side, she said.

    Marisa Vitale, 47, has been experiencing different ways people live around the world, often choosing non-touristy areas to understand how the neighborhood works. She and her family lived in a Spanish-intensive homestay in Guatemala, with an indigenous Hmong family in Vietnam, and in an Argentine estancia to learn how the gauchos work the land.

    For her 11-year-old-twins, she said has been "a masterclass in history and anthropology," adding that her kids write reports and create art projects for each country they visit.

    "Right when they're on the cusp of becoming young adults, what better way to understand who they are and how they feel in their skin than to take them through a wide variety of ways to live," she wrote over email from "deep in the desert" of Jordan, where they were staying in a Bedouin cave. "Empathy, kindness, and patience are the main things I take away from traveling. We wanted our kids to see those in so many different faces and places across the globe."

    Marisa Vitale and family
    From trekking through the misty forests on the Kumano Kodo to learning from dinosaur bones in Patagonia, Marisa Vitale said it's "been a year of awe."

    Her family plans to return to their Los Angeles home, which they rented out, this July. She halted her work as a self-employed photographer and her husband is on a yearlong sabbatical from his 15-year government job. While their monthly budget changes depending on where they're traveling, she estimates that they spend about $10,000 a month between lodging and general expenses, with a small amount of leeway for splurging on an experience.

    A year later

    A gap year also proves educational for parents. It helped Chang and her husband recalibrate their work lives. She's now doing shift work as an OB-GYN hospitalist — a better work-life balance than her previous work in private practice — and her husband is doing a fellowship to figure out how physicians can use AI.

    "He wouldn't have been able to research or think about that at all if he hadn't had the time off," she said.

    Re-entry was a little harder for Claire, despite Matt returning to his previous job. She said traveling cost them an average of $261 per day, less per day than their daily life in California. That included food and beverage, lodging, entertainment and experiences, ground transportation and fuel, and miscellaneous living expenses like medicine or SIM cards.

    "When you remove your mortgage, gas, insurance — there are so many little things that are gone when you're on the road," she said.

    Right now, they're living in Salt Lake City for two years as they contemplate what's next and prepare to launch a podcast about their travels. She hopes to keep the adventure going.

    "Our time abroad felt not overwhelmed by consumerism," she said. "In the U.S., everything from highways to shopping to grocery stores is just really big and loud. So much of our gap year was really quiet and authentic and simple."

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  • Underwater superyachts? A CEO is pitching fantastical ships that can go 800ft down and stay submerged for weeks.

    A promotional concept rendering for the proposed submersible superyacht the Migaloo M5, showing it partially submerged in dim light with a helicopter flying above.
    A rendering for the Migaloo M5, a proposed submersible superyacht

    • Austria-based Migaloo is offering to build luxury submersible yachts for the ultra-rich.
    • It says the M5 will be able to travel 820 feet underwater and stay submerged for a month.
    • Despite the high upfront cost, CEO Christian Gumpold says they're in talks with multiple buyers.

    Forget megayachts. Forget billionaire basements. If you're unfathomably rich and want a new toy, there's an Austrian company that says it will build you a fully submersible yacht.

    And this is no rickety Titan submersible.

    The Migaloo M5 concept, the company says, involves a 540-foot base model superyacht that can travel about 820 feet underwater and stay down there for up to a month.

    "The needs of superyacht owners for their vessels are more complex than ever," Migaloo CEO Christian Gumpold told BI, adding: "These wishes do not just include performance, length, or design."

    Gumpold said that yacht owners are "looking for privacy, security and protection for themselves, their guests and their valuables, or for the fulfillment of unique experiences up to scientific desires as well as for the greatest possible exclusivity."

    A promotional concept rendering for the proposed submersible superyacht the Migaloo M5, showing it submerged in shallow tropical waters with a sailed vessel on the surface above.
    A promotional concept rendering for the Migaloo M5, a proposed submersible superyacht.

    According to its marketing materials, Migaloo says the vessel's layout and features can be designed around whatever priorities the customer has, whether that's security, thrill-seeking, research, or simply vacation.

    The company offers potential buyers a checklist of possible features, including LED exterior lighting with a laser show, a helipad, a hot air balloon, and — for the aspiring Bond villain — an underwater shark feeding station.

    The vessel can potentially host a wealth of supplemental vehicles, including mini-submarines, exploration vehicles, and working boats, it said.

    It's envisioned as being able to house up to 20 guests and around 40 staff.

    The Migaloo concept clearly aims to cater to an increasing desire for privacy and security among the world's richest people.

    The most expensive megayachts ever sold now run into the half-a-billion-dollars range or more, with at least three $600 million yachts afloat, owned by various oligarchs and oil-state royalty.

    Bobbing about underwater in a Migaloo M5, Elon Musk wouldn't have to worry about a jet-tracking student any longer.

    A promotional concept rendering for the proposed submersible superyacht the Migaloo M5 at night, showing windows lit up and a pool in the foreground.
    A promotional concept rendering for the Migaloo M5, a proposed submersible superyacht

    Gumpold told BI he has specialized in yacht design since 2008, and he promised that all the complex arrangements of the Migaloo project — working with shipyards, flag states, and classification societies — would be taken care of by his company.

    Much of the marketing material for Migaloo runs to possibilities that sound science fictional, addressing problems that will either only ever apply to the ultra-rich, or which the rest of us will be too dead to care about.

    Saying it works with security company SAFE, Migaloo claims it can create a "private submersible fortress," offering protection from EMP pulses, cybercrime, piracy, solar flares, asteroids, and polar shifts.

    That's on top of a gamut of features that any megayacht owner might feasibly expect, including spas, gyms, a gaming room, a wine cellar, an art gallery, and a panic room.

    A promotional concept rendering for the proposed submersible superyacht the Migaloo M5, viewed from under shallow waters with a whale in the foreground.
    A promotional concept rendering for the Migaloo M5, a proposed submersible superyacht

    The cost, however, is the ultimate "if you have to ask, you can't afford it" test.

    Gumpold told Fast Company that the price depends on the scope of what the client asks for, comparing it to the price ticket on large superyachts, which can run into hundreds of millions of dollars.

    According to Fast Company's estimation, there are only 50 people in the world who can afford to purchase a luxury submergible megayacht.

    A promotional concept rendering for the proposed submersible superyacht the Migaloo M5 viewed on the surface, from above, showing various bays and pools.
    A promotional concept rendering for the Migaloo M5, a proposed submersible superyacht

    It remains to be seen if and when any prospective buyers will bite.

    Gumpold told BI his company is "still in close contact with several potential owners worldwide" and is "very close" to executing the first project steps.

    But he didn't elaborate on any concrete steps and wouldn't name any of his prospective clients.

    With a turnaround time of about four to seven years, it's also going to be a while before any of them take to the seas.

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  • Californians appear to be losing enthusiasm for Tesla

    Teslas being charged in California
    Tesla sales dipped by 7.8% in the first-quarter of 2024.

    • Tesla registrations dropped again in California last quarter, according to a California Auto Outlook report.
    • The report says Tesla saw a 7.8% dip in sales in the state while Rivian's increased by 87.1% and GMC shot up by 24,700%.
    • Tesla still leads the EV market in California, but CNCDA's president said the registration drops are notable. 

    Californian drivers appear to be losing some enthusiasm for Tesla.

    A California Auto Outlook report shows year-over-year Tesla registrations are down again in the state. The report, published on Monday by the California New Car Dealers Association, summarizes first-quarter vehicle registration figures statewide.

    The report said Tesla saw a 7.8% dip in sales in California in the first quarter, down from 54,265 in the last quarter of 2023 to 50,025 in Q1. The drop follows last quarter's 9.8% decline.

    Meanwhile, EV startup and Tesla competitor Rivian saw an 87.1% increase in California registrations, according to the report. Other brands also saw major increases in EV sales, according to the data, including Mercedes, which saw EV sales increase by about 125%.

    Tesla's California market share also dropped to an estimated 11.6% while other brands shot up, with Toyota leading with 16.6% of the market in the state and Honda capturing 10.5%, the report said.

    With Tesla's market share in the Golden State is shrinking, established car companies are making a comeback by introducing new electric and hybrid vehicles, according to the report.

    This can be reflected in a 14% increase in BEV sales by traditional dealerships compared to last year, although direct sellers experienced a slight decline, the report said. Franchised dealerships also hold over two-thirds of the market share for alternative fuel vehicles, which the report said highlights consumer trust in local dealerships and traditional brands as the landscape evolves.

    CNCDA Chairman and owner of multiple car dealerships said in a statement announcing the report that "the Tesla sales model is ineffective," and cited layoffs and general dissatisfaction with the brand's service. Tesla famously snubbed car dealerships and opted to sell directly to consumers.

    Tesla is still the No. 1 EV seller in California

    But while Tesla sales in California may have dipped, it remains a top seller for EVs in California, according to the report.

    Tesla dominated 2024 rankings for fully electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids for 2024, with the Model Y, Model 3, and Model X holding the top three spots out of 15.

    Tesla also ranked first for top-selling luxury high-end sports cars, near luxury cars, luxury compact SUVs, and top-selling light trucks. Tesla came in second for luxury mid-size SUVs and went from first ranked to third for top-selling passenger cars.

    Tesla's Model 3 may have remained in the top three rank for top-selling passenger cars, but CNCDA president Brian Maas told BI the downgrade is significant.

    Maas, who acknowledged that sales fluctuate quarter to quarter, said that Tesla has previously seen continued growth in California — and the drop in registrations, market share, and passenger car ranking is indicative that the company is plateauing and "dwindling" in the state.

    "What you're seeing overall is there are more and more choices for electric vehicles," Maas said. "And that competition is eating into Tesla's numbers."

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  • A millennial couldn’t afford the Mounjaro weight-loss drug so he started secretly working 2 remote jobs. He’s on track to make $166,000 this year and says he’s lost 45 pounds.

    overemployed worker California
    A California millennial began secretly working two remote jobs to pay for weight-loss drugs. Worker in the story not pictured.

    • A millennial in California is secretly working a second remote job so he can afford weight-loss drugs.
    • He said taking Mounjaro and Zepbound has helped him lose 45 pounds. 
    • He's on track to make $166,000 this year and said he doesn't work more than 60 hours a week. 

    Last August, George decided he wanted to try to work a second remote job — and not tell his employers he was job juggling.

    The Californiabased millennial was bored with his contract finance gig in the biotech industry, he told Business Insider via email. And he thought the extra income would help him afford rent, pay down credit card debt, and travel more.

    But there was another big reason he wanted to be "overemployed:" It would help him afford weight-loss drugs.

    "I wanted to start on Mounjaro and knew I couldn't afford the out-of-pocket cost without a second job," said George, whose identity is known to BI but has been withheld due to his fear of professional repercussions.

    Mounjaro is among the appetite-suppressing GLP-1 drugs that have helped some people manage their weight. The Eli Lilly-produced drug received FDA approval in 2022 as a diabetes treatment, and last November, the FDA approved Zepbound — a weight-loss-specific version of the drug with the same main ingredient. Mounjaro and Zepbound are in the same class of drugs as Novo Nordisk's Ozempic and Wegovy.

    Weight-loss drugs have grown in popularity over the last year, but their costs have kept them out of reach for some people. Zepbound and Wegovy each cost over $1,000 a month, require weekly injections, and may need to be taken on a long-term basis to sustain any weight loss. What's more, many insurance plans don't cover them.

    In late September, George started a second full-time remote job in the same industry. He's on track to earn roughly $166,000 this year across his jobs, according to documents viewed by Business Insider. The contract roles pay a combined $80 an hour, and George said occasional overtime pay offsets the lack of paid vacation time. He said he's only told his family and a few friends about his overemployment.

    George said roughly doubling his earnings has had a huge impact on his life. He was able to afford Mounjaro and said he's dropped 45 pounds — from 220 lbs to 175 lbs — since he started taking it in October. The extra income has also helped him pay down credit card debt and made his monthly bills much more manageable.

    "I don't stress about every little cent anymore," he said. "It has been tremendously freeing."

    George is among a niche group of remote workers secretly holding multiple jobs and earning well over six figures a year. These people have used their extra income to pay off mortgages, save for an early retirement, and take lavish vacations. While some bosses may be fine with employees taking on extra work, being caught doing so without company approval could be a fireable offense.

    For George, his overemployment has been worth the risk.

    Working efficiently is the key to avoiding burnout as an overemployed worker

    When George began looking for a second job, he said he didn't know anything about the overemployed community or the subreddit where job jugglers share tips and tricks. He said his job search consisted of working with a few recruiters and staffing firms and applying for jobs on his own.

    After a roughly monthlong search, he started his second job and was able to afford Mounjaro.

    Between October and the end of 2023, George paid over $3,200 for three months of Mounjaro injections, according to a document viewed by Business Insider.

    But when Eli Lilly rolled out its new weight-loss drug Zepbound in November, it began offering discounted prescriptions of Zepbound to patients whose insurance didn't cover the drug. George switched to Zepbound and said he's now paying roughly $550 a month for his weight-loss medication, though this discount could expire at the end of 2024.

    George hasn't had too much trouble juggling multiple jobs — he said he typically gets all his work done in less than 60 hours a week. While one of his teams goes into the office every once in a while for a happy hour, he said this isn't mandatory.

    His main piece of advice for job jugglers: Stay on top of your workload.

    "I have had a few extremely late nights trying to get everything done because I didn't allocate time correctly during the week," he said.

    If his overemployment regularly required him to work 60-plus hour weeks, he said it wouldn't be sustainable.

    Going forward, George said he plans to continue taking Zepbound, but that he's open to trying a different drug if it's more affordable. He has no plans to give up his overemployment, in large part because it's made his recent weight loss journey possible.

    "If one contract ends for some reason, I will definitely be seeking another to replace it," he said.

    Are you working multiple remote jobs at the same time and willing to discuss details about your pay and schedule? If so, reach out to this reporter at jzinkula@insider.com.

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  • Russia may not start an all-out war with NATO, but already has plans to destroy it from within

    Nato exercises
    Romanian Army Piranha IIIH MRV is seen in action during a military high-intensity training session of Anaconda 23 at Nowa Deba training ground, on May 6, 2023, in Nowa Deba, Poland.

    • Politicians say Russia poses the gravest threat to European security since World War II. 
    • But Russia is weakened by the Ukraine war and is in no position to attack NATO, experts say.
    • Instead, the Russian president wants to weaken and undermine NATO from within, analysts believe. 

    The era of relative peace and prosperity the West has enjoyed since the end of World War II may fast be coming to an end.

    In March, Poland's Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, said Europe was in a "pre-war" era and that Russia must not defeat Ukraine for the security of the continent.

    "I don't want to scare anyone, but war is no longer a concept from the past," Tusk said in an interview with several European media outlets. "It is real. In fact, it already started more than two years ago," referencing the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

    It's one of a series of increasingly stark warnings that the war in Ukraine could be a prelude to a much bigger conflict.

    German military planning documents leaked in January imagined Russia launching a massive 2024 offensive to take advantage of waning Western support in Ukraine.

    The documents, obtained by Bild, then envisage Russia turning its sights on NATO members in Eastern Europe, with it seeking to destabilize its enemies through cyberattacks and internal chaos in the Baltic states of Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia.

    Germany isn't the only one. Late last year, Poland's national security agency estimated that Russia could attack NATO within three years.

    The members of the 32-member NATO alliance are each sworn to protect each other from attack under Article 5 of the Washington Treaty. That means a Russian attack on one member could spark a war involving several nuclear-armed states.

    But whether Putin really does intend to attack NATO and what an attack might look like remains unclear.

    In March, Putin denied having any plans to attack NATO members, describing such claims as "complete nonsense."

    Western military chiefs are not convinced, however. A month earlier, Putin menaced the West with the prospect of a nuclear attack over its support for Ukraine.

    He alluded to a recent suggestion by French President Emmanuel Macron that NATO could send troops to Ukraine to support its fight against the Russian invasion.

    Analysts told Business Insider that Russia is weakened by the toll of the Ukraine war and in no position to attack the alliance.

    But Putin is playing a long game, and the outcome of the Ukraine war and Russia's long-standing bid to undermine and corrode NATO will be key factors in deciding whether Russia strikes.

    Putin plots to corrode NATO

    Putin has a key advantage over the West, Philip Ingram, a former UK military intelligence officer, told BI.

    While Western leaders plan within election cycles of around four years, Putin is an authoritarian leader with no serious challengers to his power. That means he can look decades ahead.

    "He does not want, at this moment, a direct confrontation with NATO," said Ingram. "But he thinks in a different way and plans in a different way to we do in the West, and therefore the way NATO countries do."

    "So, his ambition in growing is not going to be that he will attack NATO and NATO countries next year. But he will set the conditions to be able to, " Ingram said.

    Analysts like Ingram believe that Putin realizes attacking NATO now would exact a vast and punishing cost on Russia. Instead, Putin will seek to weaken NATO from within to create soft spots he can strike in the future if he chooses.

    To do this, Putin will likely intensify Russia's so-called "hybrid warfare" against NATO countries.

    As NATO puts it, hybrid warfare "often plays out in gray zones below the threshold of a conventional war."

    "The instruments or tools employed and fused together to unleash hybrid warfare are often difficult to discern, attribute, and corroborate."

    They can include spreading conspiracy theories and disinformation, boosting extremist parties in certain countries, stoking terror threats, and launching cyber attacks to undermine the foundation of Western societies.

    "The threat posed by Russia to NATO is unlikely to be an invasion, it's more likely to come from a range of other military and non-military threats – what are often called hybrid threats," Ruth Deyermond, an expert on the Russian military at King's College London told BI.

    A core aim is to prise away the US from its commitment to defend its European allies, either by hoping it gets embroiled in another costly military campaign elsewhere, or tires of the NATO project.

    "For this reason, I expect we'll see Russia using all of the tricks and capabilities in its cupboard to undermine Western unity over the years to come," Bryden Spurling, an analyst with the RAND Corporation, told BI.

    A covert war is already underway

    Russia, some point out, is already engaged in a war with NATO, albeit covertly.

    Only days ago, a group of men in the UK were accused of conducting arson attacks on a Ukraine-linked business on behalf of Russian intelligence. This is just one example of "hybrid warfare" tactics.

    In recent months, Russia has also been accused of being behind the scrambling of GPS plane navigation systems in northern Europe and the Baltics, in what some claim could be part of a "hybrid warfare" attack.

    Robert Dover, a professor of international security at the University of Hull in the UK, said the question of whether Russia will attack NATO is already redundant. "Russia is already engaged in a meaningful conflict with NATO countries and their allies," he pointed out.

    The Ukraine war exposed serious limits to NATO's military power. The alliance has struggled to produce enough artillery shells and ammunition for Ukraine.

    During the recent block in US aid, European NATO countries were unable to make up the shortfall, and Ukraine's forces were being outfired at a rate of 10-one on parts of the front line, which were close to collapse.

    The US recently released the aid, but the problems the situation exposed run deep, said Spurling, the RAND analyst. This, he said, is a weakness Russia could seek to exploit if not remedied.

    "This conflict has exposed how underprepared Western militaries are for war that's not on their terms," he added. "While we maintain that fragility, there is a greater risk that Russia thinks it could chance its arm," he said.

    Russia is weakened by the Ukraine war

    Russian military Ukraine
    A member of the Ukrainian Territorial Defence Forces walks past destroyed Russian military vehicles in a forest outside Ukraine's second-biggest city of Kharkiv on March 7, 2022.

    But Russia also faces massive problems of its own. Its military has been devasted by the Ukraine invasion. According to US estimates, its entire pre-war invasion force of around 300,000 men has been killed or injured (though it has replenished those numbers), its stock of armored vehicles has been devastated, and its commanders have made consistently bad decisions.

    "It's hard to imagine a near- or medium-term scenario in which the Russian government has the resources to engage in another war on anything like the scale of Ukraine," Deyermond, the expert on the Russian military at King's College London, told BI.

    Any potential attack on NATO would come at such a devastating cost it could imperil Putin's grip on power.

    "War with NATO would destroy Russia, as Putin will know very well, and even if he thinks there's a possibility that the US might not step up to defend a fellow NATO member from a Russian invasion, he shows no sign of wanting to find out by playing nuclear Russian roulette," said Deyermond.

    But however long it takes, Putin is determined to achieve some form of victory in Ukraine so that he can use it as a platform to plan Russia's next campaign, said Ingram.

    After Ukraine, Putin will survey the field and be keen to exploit further opportunities to expand Russian power.

    As Ingram puts it: "He wants the Soviet Union back in the hands of a Russian leader, and that's his ultimate goal."

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  • Starbucks says it’s launching boba-inspired drinks this summer

    young man works with laptop and drinks bubble milk tea at cafe
    Boba, also known as bubble tea, is a Taiwanese drink made up of milk, tea, and chewy tapioca. pearls.

    • Starbucks is set to roll out its own version of boba in May, CEO Laxman Narasimhan said Tuesday.
    • "We are launching our first texture innovation, Pearls," he said.
    • Some Starbucks baristas have posted TikTok videos making drinks with "raspberry-popping pearls."

    Starbucks is set to roll out its own version of boba at its stores this summer, more than two years after it first confirmed that it was testing drinks with pearls.

    "For summer, we are launching our first texture innovation, Pearls," CEO Laxman Narasimhan told analysts at the company's earnings call Tuesday. "This is the first of more texture-based innovations that our customers can expect in the coming years."

    The drink will be rolled out during the week starting May 6 as part of Starbucks' summer menu, he said.

    Some TikTok users who appear to be Starbucks baristas have made videos of themselves making what they say are summer berry-flavored Refreshers from the coffee chain's upcoming range. Some of the drinks are served with raspberry-popping pearls.

    Another video appeared to show a barista making an iced matcha with the pearls.

    In December 2021, Starbucks confirmed to Business Insider that it was conducting a limited test of two beverages "made with coffee pearls" at two stores. A viral TikTok posted at the time appeared to show drinks called "Iced Chai Tea Latte with Coffee Pearls" and "In the Dark" on sale at a Starbucks in Palm Desert, California.

    Boba, also known as bubble tea, is a Taiwanese drink typically made with milk, tea, and chewy tapioca pearls, which are created using starch from the roots of cassava plants. Sometimes, the chewy pearls are substituted for popping ones. It's usually served cold.

    Iced and cold drinks are a crucial part of Starbucks' strategy: In the quarter to July 2023 — the early part of the summer season — three-quarters of the drinks it sold were cold.

    Starbucks has previously sold flavored iced oolong tea with flavored pearls in some Asian markets, including plum pearls.

    Alongside boba, the coffee chain is rolling out a "new functional product, a zero to low-calorie handcrafted energy beverage" and more sugar-free customization options, Narasimhan said Tuesday.

    Product innovation like this helps to "elevate the brand" and boost sales, Narasimhan said. He noted that Starbucks' range of lavender-infused drinks performed nearly as well in the quarter as the chain's famous Pumpkin Spice Latte.

    The drinks with popping pearls have been a long time coming. Starbucks wants to roll out new products more quickly: It's working on halving its average product development cycle from the current 12-to-18 months, Narasimhan said.

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  • China’s new aircraft carrier is being tested at sea for the first time, but US carriers ‘remain in an echelon of their own,’ expert says

    China aircraft carrier Fujian
    Chinese aircraft carrier the Fujian at Jiangnan Shipyard in Shanghai during its launch ceremony on June 17, 2022.

    • China has tested its newest aircraft carrier for the first time at sea, according to Chinese media.
    • The Fujian is China's most advanced carrier and has a catapult system, unlike its predecessors.
    • But it falls far short of the standards of US Navy carriers, a military analyst told CNN.

    China launched the first sea trial of its newest aircraft carrier on Wednesday, per the state-run news agency Xinhua.

    Fujian, the country's third and most advanced aircraft carrier, left Shanghai's shipyard at around 8 a.m. local time for trials primarily meant to assess the reliability and stability of its propulsion and electrical systems, per the news agency.

    It's a major step, with the People's Liberation Army Navy reportedly looking to put its largest, most advanced carrier through sea trials for months.

    However, according to John Bradford, a Council on Foreign Relations International Affairs fellow, the Fujian falls far short of US aircraft carrier standards.

    While Bradford acknowledged the Fujian's sea trials as a key "milestone" for the Chinese navy, he told CNN that US carriers "remain in an echelon of their own."

    Richard Kouyoumdjian Inglis, a Lieutenant Commander in the Chilean Naval Reserve, backed this up.

    "There is nothing yet that compares to the USS carriers," he told Business Insider.

    The Fujian was previously pictured on social media, with images showing the vessel docked in Shanghai and its flight deck complete with five mock-ups of warplanes.

    Unlike China's two other carriers, the Liaoning and Shandong, the Fujian features a catapult system designed to launch aircraft, according to reports, much like US aircraft carriers.

    The ship is also closer in size and flight deck configuration to US Navy carriers but falls short of them, per a report by the Congressional Research Service.

    At the same time, the Fujian is conventionally powered, meaning it must either call at a port or be met by a tanker at sea to refill. In contrast, US nuclear-powered carriers can remain at sea for as long as crew provisions last, per a 2021 analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

    Based on satellite images of the ship from 2021, the CSIS estimated the carrier to be about 984 feet long and about 131 feet wide, making it smaller than the USS Gerald Ford Class, which is 1,092 feet long and 1,106 feet wide.

    The Fujian has three electromagnetic catapults, per Defense News, one fewer than the USS Gerald Ford Class, per Naval News.

    In terms of aircraft capacity, Fujian can take on about 60 aircraft, while the largest US carriers can host about 75, per estimates by the CSIS, cited by CNN.

    Business Insider previously reported that China's two other aircraft carriers — the Liaoning and Shandong — had outdated Soviet-era designs and smaller air wings, making them notably inferior to US carriers.

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  • A second person has been accused in the abduction of Mint Butterfield, child of Slack and Flicker founders

    Mint Butterfield is the child of Stewart Butterfield, left, and Caterina Fake, right
    Mint Butterfield is the child of Stewart Butterfield, left, and Caterina Fake, right.

    • Charges were filed in the disappearance of Mint Butterfield, naming a second person.
    • Butterfield was found after six days of missing in San Francisco.
    • The teen was coerced into running away by two adults, prosecutors say.

    A second person is facing charges over the disappearance of Mint Butterfield, the teen child of two tech founders.

    Butterfield, 16, went missing for six days before they were found alive in the back of a white van in San Francisco's Tenderloin district on Saturday.

    They are the only child of Caterina Fake and Stewart Butterfield, who cofounded Flickr together in 2004. Stewart Butterfield also cofounded Slack and is worth around $1.6 billion, according to Forbes.

    Tenderloin district
    A street view of San Francisco's Tenderloin district.

    The van belonged to Christopher "Kio" Dizefalo, 26, a San Francisco parking valet described as an "adult friend" of Butterfield's in a press release from the Marin County Sheriff's Office.

    But later, when Dizefalo was charged, prosecutors named a second person, a woman called Sarah Atkins.

    Both were charged with child abduction and the lesser count of contributing to the delinquency of a minor.

    Both are due to appear in court on Wednesday morning.

    When Butterfield was missing, authorities said they believed they went willingly.

    (The charge doesn't necessarily contradict that — it is still possible to meet the definition of abduction for a willing child.)

    The sheriff's office also said Dizefalo was arrested in connection with a charge of unlawful sexual intercourse.

    It appeared in his inmate record for the Marin County Jail but not as a formal charge in the court records.

    Atkins didn't appear as an inmate in jail records.

    Dizefalo and Butterfield "had some sort of a quasi-dating relationship," a representative for the Marin County Sheriff's Office told The New York Post.

    Atkins is in her late 20s, according to The San Francisco Standard. There is little other information available about her alleged involvement or relationship with Butterfield.

    Dizefalo was taken into custody shortly after Butterfield was discovered by police, and his bail was set at $50,000.

    Adam Schermerhorn, a representative for Marin County Sheriff's Office, told The Standard that Atkins was not there when Butterfield and Dizefalo were found.

    Butterfield's parents thanked "family, friends, volunteers and strangers who called in tips and made this recovery possible," in a joint statement obtained by the Standard.

    "We especially want to thank the seasoned law enforcement officers who understand the very real threat of predators who use the allure of drugs to groom teenagers," they added.

    The Marin County Sheriff's Office did not immediately respond to a request for further comment on Wednesday, sent outside regular business hours.

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  • More than 100 protesters arrested at Columbia University and City College of New York, reports say

    NYPD police officers stand in front of Columbia campus, with Palestinian flag waving in distance
    • Dozens of arrests have reportedly been made at Columbia University after NYPD cleared protesters.
    • Pro-Palestinian protesters had barricaded themselves in Hamilton Hall, a main campus building.
    • Arrests were also made at the City College of New York, reports said.

    More than 100 people were arrested at Columbia University and the City College of New York on Tuesday, multiple news organizations reported.

    The arrests followed a student occupation of Hamilton Hall, one of Columbia University's main campus buildings.

    Columbia has been rocked by protests over the Israel-Hamas war, following Hamas' October 7 terror attack.

    NYPD in riot gear were called to clear the protesters

    On Tuesday evening, NYPD officers in riot gear reportedly entered Hamilton Hall, where protesters had been camping out for around 20 hours.

    CNN reported that the NYPD said its officers used loud distraction devices, "flash-bang grenades" to disperse the protesters who had barricaded themselves in the building.

    A law enforcement official told CNN that more than 100 arrests were made at Columbia and the City College of New York. Business Insider has contacted the NYPD to try to confirm the number of arrests.

    Columbia's president, Nemat "Minouche" Shafik released a letter to the NYPD on Tuesday, which requested that police remain on the campus until May 17, two days after the graduation ceremony.

    "The takeover of Hamilton Hall and the continued encampments raise serious safety concerns for the individuals involved and the entire community," part of the letter read.

    Protests have also occurred at other campuses. In Los Angeles, police were called to the UCLA campus early Wednesday after violence broke out when counter-protesters tried to tear down barricades at the pro-Palestinian encampment, the LA Times reported.

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