Author: openjargon

• Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s large family keeps speaking against him.
• Most of them have endorsed President Joe Biden.
• Several have said Kennedy's long shot campaign will hurt Biden's reelection chances.

Since the day he declared for office, Democratic-turned-Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has been chastised by his fellow Kennedys for being a threat to President Joe Biden's chances at reelection.

Many of them endorsed Biden over their relative during a campaign stop in Philadelphia in April. Kennedy, whose campaign could hurt Donald Trump's reelection chances, brushed it off in a lengthy social media post highlighting his affection for them.

"I hear some of my family will be endorsing President Biden today," Kennedy posted. "I am pleased they are politically active — it's a family tradition. We are divided in our opinions but united in our love for each other."

Other family members have kept their support much more low-key.

"We love our brother. We love our party. And we love our president," Christopher Kennedy told Politico shortly after RFK Jr. decided to run as an Independent.

Many of his relatives haven't been nearly as kind when speaking out against Kennedy, as seen below:

Kerry Kennedy

Kerry Kennedy, Robert's sister, endorsed President Joe Biden during a rally in April that featured other family members, arguing that Biden and Trump are the only two candidates that matter in 2024.

"President Biden has been a champion of all the rights and freedoms that my father and uncle stood for," Kerry Kennedy said, adding that "The Kennedy family endorses Joe Biden for president."

Kerry Kennedy has been harshly critical of her brother, including when he shared the unfounded claim that COVID-19 was "ethnically targeted" to avoid Ashkenazi Jews and Chinese people. Kennedy later said his comments were not antisemitic.

"I strongly condemn my brother's deplorable and untruthful remarks last week about Covid being engineered for ethnic targeting," Kerry Kennedy said at the time. "His statements do not represent what I believe or what Robert F. Kennedy Human Rights stand for, with our 50+-year track record of protecting rights and standing against racism and all forms of discrimination."

Kerry Kennedy is directly involved in shaping her father's legacy as president of Robert F. Kennedy Human Rights, a nonprofit organization. She also wrote a 2018 book about RFK's legacy that is based on interviews with celebrities like Bono and world leaders like President Barack Obama.

Joseph Kennedy II

Former Congressman Joseph Kennedy II said he and some of his family members would continue to express their disagreement with his brother's presidential campaign.

"We cannot do anything that in any way, strips even one vote from President Biden. You put the name Kennedy on the ballot and Democrats are going to feel torn," Kennedy II told reporters after the Biden endorsement rally in April. "We are trying to make them understand that this is an issue that they do not have to feel torn about."

Kennedy II represented Massachusetts in Congress for over a decade, until 1999. Before leaving Washington, he ruled out a gubernatorial run. Kennedy also declined to run for the so-called "Kennedy seat" in the US Senate after the death of his uncle, Ted Kennedy, in 2009.

Kathleen Kennedy Townsend

Former Maryland Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend has also endorsed Biden.

"Honored to stand with my family as we endorse Joe Biden who will continue to protect our rights our freedom and our democracy in this moment of deepest peril," she wrote on X after Biden campaign event that featured some of the family members.

Townsend made history in 1994 when she was elected Maryland's first female lieutenant governor in a close election. She had previously become the first Kennedy to lose a general election when she lost a bid to represent Maryland in Congress in 1984. Townsend was just 16 years old when her father was assassinated. Secret Service agents accompanied her, RFK Jr. and Joseph Kennedy II, as they flew out to California.

Townsend sided with her brother in a push to reopen the investigation into RFK's assassination, concluding that Sirhan Sirhan may not have fired the fatal shots.

"Bobby makes a compelling case," she told The Washington Post in 2018. "I think [the investigation] should be reopened."

Rory Kennedy

Rory, the youngest of RFK Sr. and Ethel Kennedy's 11 children, has repeatedly denounced her brother's campaign.

"Bobby might share the same name as our father, but he does not share the same values, vision or judgment," Kennedy said in a statement when RFK Jr. announced his intention to run as an independent presidential candidate.

Kennedy was joined by three other siblings, Kerry Kennedy, Joseph P. Kennedy III, and Kathleen Kennedy Townsend. Rory Kennedy was born six months after her father's assassination. She is a documentary filmmaker. Her latest work is "The Synanon Fix" a TV series for Max that explores a drug rehabilitation program that turned into what some call a cult. Kennedy was nominated for an Academy Award for her work in 2005's "Street Fight" a documentary about Cory Booker's early rise through an unsuccessful Newark mayoral race.

Joseph Kennedy III

Former Congressman Joseph Kennedy III told NBC News that his uncle's campaign is "likely to divert support away from President Biden and end up increasing support for Donald Trump."

Kennedy III left Congress after failing to oust Massachusetts Sen. Ed Markey in a 2020 primary. He was viewed as a rising star in the Democratic Party and even delivered the party's official response to Trump's 2018 State of the Union. He is the most recent Kennedy to have served in Congress. Biden appointed him as United States Special Envoy for Northern Ireland in 2022.

Stephen Kennedy Smith

Stephen Kennedy Smith has said that his uncle "does not have the vision, values, or judgment of RFK Sr. "

"I have known RFK Jr. since I was a child. We attended Harvard together and my father ran Senator Robert F Kennedy's campaign for Senate in 1964 and his presidential campaign in 1968," Smith wrote on LinkedIn. "When RFK Jr decided to run he didn't call me to ask for help because he knew I would oppose his candidacy due to his misguided stands on issues, his poor judgement, and tenuous relationship with the truth."

Smith has served as a US Senate staffer, lectured at Harvard, and is a philanthropist and entrepreneur. He also wrote a book about JFK with historian Douglas Brinkley, "JFK: A Vision for America."

Bobby Shriver

Bobby Shriver, a nephew of RFK Sr., was among the family members who slammed a pro-RFK Jr. super PAC for using images of the late attorney general.

"My cousin's Super Bowl ad used our uncle's faces- and my Mother's," Shriver wrote on X. "She would be appalled by his deadly health care views. Respect for science, vaccines, & health care equity were in her DNA."

RFK Jr. apologized for the ad but promoted it on X. He later named one of the major donors to that super PAC, Nicole Shanahan, as his running mate.

Shriver, who briefly served as mayor of Santa Monica, California, cofounded (RED) which works with major brands to raise money to combat the spread of HIV/AIDS.

Jack Schlossberg

Jack Schlossberg, JFK's only grandson, has gone after his cousin for invoking the family's famous image for "personal gain" amid the presidential campaign.

"He's trading in on Camelot celebrity conspiracy theories and conflict for personal gain and fame. I've listened to him. I know him. I have no idea why anyone thinks he should be president," Schlossberg wrote on Instagram. "What I do know is his candidacy is an embarrassment. Let's not be distracted again by somebody's vanity project."

Schlossberg's comments are notable as his mother, Caroline Kennedy, cannot engage directly with the presidential campaign due to long-held interpretations of how federal law restricts political statements by US diplomats. Biden appointed Kennedy as US Ambassador to Australia.

A slew of other Kennedys have endorsed Biden.

Other family members have not been as outspoken in their criticism of RFK Jr., but they have announced that they will support Biden this November.

According to multiple reports, they are Beth Kennedy, Christopher Kennedy, Maxwell Taylor Kennedy, Vicki Strauss Kennedy, Kerry Kennedy Meltzer, Max Meltzer, Ted Kennedy Jr., Peter McKelvy, and Rebeca McKelvy.

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• Tesla reported disappointing results for the first quarter.
• But investors celebrated news of cheaper vehicles on the horizon.
• That assumes lots of people want to buy a Tesla but can't afford one.

Tesla had some bad news and some good news when it released first-quarter earnings.

The bad: It reported revenue and earnings that were below Wall Street expectations, and posted negative free cash flow.

The good news: Cheaper Teslas are on the way!

Tesla's plan to accelerate the launch of new models — including more affordable cars — and talk of a robotaxi service was enough to send the stock price higher despite the earnings miss.

The investor reaction suggests Wall Street has bought into the idea that cheaper vehicles will help solve some of Tesla's demand challenges.

EV sales growth has slowed in part because most of the options are more expensive than the average car purchase in the US, or so the theory goes.

"If you have a great product at a great price, the sales will be excellent," CEO Elon Musk said Tuesday on an earnings call.

That might ordinarily be true. But Tesla is no ordinary product. Even at a lower price, say $25,000, it's a very significant purchase — likely one of the most expensive purchases a person will make.

So let's for a second look at why a lower ticket price might not be a panacea for Tesla.

Switching from gas to electric is a big deal

Many EV buyers thus far have been early adopters, and there are many, many more car buyers who are yet to be convinced. It's part of the reason hybrids have been having a moment, as an intermediate step from gas-powered cars to fully electric vehicles.

It's possible that there are a bunch more buyers out there who would love to buy a Tesla but just can't afford one. How big is that group of buyers? It's not clear.

"These new vehicles still bring a lot of new, unanswered questions, and TSLA didn't really address, leaving us to believe much is still in flux," UBS said in a note following the earnings release.

"What are they really, and what buyer are they targeting other than 'lower cost'? Lower cost may not be enough because of lower used Tesla pricing," the note added.

For context, a quick search of Carvana reveals a whole bunch of used Teslas priced in the $25,000 to $30,000 range. Many of those listed have seen recent price drops.

Are they a good deal? It's hard to say. The resale data for used EVs is sparse, and the longevity of batteries is scattershot as technology improves.

Infrastructure challenges remain

EVs also require entirely different infrastructure from gas-powered vehicles, and anxiety over battery range and charging stations continues to be a real issue for EV owners.

The number of charging stations in the US has grown gradually over the years, but operators have struggled with maintenance and uptime issues — and some lack the amenities like snacks and bathrooms you'd find at gas stations. It's also worth noting that a full charge for a Tesla, which has nearly 7,000 US charging stations, could take up to 30 minutes.

Maybe infrastructure isn't a core concern for the archetypal early Tesla buyer: someone who might be a tech employee in California with plugins in their garage or driveway — and also at their office. There are many other Tesla buyers, of course, but as Tesla introduces lower-cost models in search of different buyers, needs will shift.

Today's buyers of a Honda Civic or Toyota Camry, two of the most prevalent cars on American roads, may not be willing to invest the time and money in perfecting their home-charging setup, which can require an electrician to install high-voltage plugs in a convenient spot. And that's, of course, only if they own their own parking space. Installation might be trickier for people living in apartment complexes, urban townhouses, or myriad other housing situations.

Musk and Tesla are politicized

As Tesla looks to lure potential new buyers with a cheaper car, it will have to contend with souring consumer sentiment toward the EV maker.

The number of US consumers who say they would consider buying a Tesla fell to 31% in February — down from 70% in November 2021 — according to research recently published by Reuters. Some Tesla owners had previously told BI that they were rethinking their allegiance to the brand due to concerns over Musk.

Tesla is also facing headwinds in China, where it's losing ground to fierce local competitors like BYD.

BYD sells one EV model for less than $10,000 in China, where Tesla's Model 3, by comparison, costs about $32,000.

Tesla's share of the Chinese auto market fell to 6.7% in the quarter ended December, compared to a 10.5% share in the first quarter last year, Bloomberg reported based on China's Passenger Car Association data.

Time will tell for Tesla

It's still not entirely clear when a new more affordable model might arrive, though Musk floated the possibility of early 2025.

Elon Musk has a history of overpromising on timelines. The Cybertruck, for example, was supposed to go into production in 2021. Deliveries to customers didn't start until late 2023.

If and when the cheaper car does arrive, it may take off. Renault has had some recent success with lower-priced EVs, for example. It could make Tesla more attractive in markets like India. Maybe the pool of buyers for a cheap Tesla will be ginormous. Betting against Elon Musk has been a losing proposition over time.

But it's worth considering what might happen if it's not an instant success.

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• Tesla's gigafactory outside Austin won't have to follow the city's environmental regulations. 
• The EV company was granted an exemption thanks to a new state law.
• Elon Musk has said the property will be an "ecological paradise," but Tesla has a history of violating the environment. 

Tesla's massive gigafactory outside Austin, Texas will no longer have to follow local environmental regulations, thanks to a recent state law.

Tesla's 2,500-acre property, which includes its 10-million-square-foot electric vehicle gigafactory, is in unincorporated land on the outskirts of Austin.

Despite not being directly in the city, most of that land was still part of Austin's "extraterritorial jurisdiction" (ETJ), which allowed the city to regulate developments outside its limits.

In February, Tesla applied for an exemption from Austin's ETJ, which the city's Planning Department approved in March.

The exemption was first reported by the Austin Business Journal this week.

The exemption was possible thanks to a new state law that went into effect in September and allows landowners to request to be removed from jurisdictions so that they can develop land with fewer regulations.

Several cities in the state have already sued to block the law, including Grand Prairie, which argued in a filing that the law will hurt the city's ability to protect the health, safety, and welfare of those who live in and around its borders.

But under the law, cities don't have much leeway to deny a landowner's request, Austin's director of planning previously said, according to the Austin Business Journal.

Tesla's ETJ exemption will enable the electric vehicle company to further develop its land without having to follow the city's environmental restrictions, which an Austin city spokesperson acknowledged could harm locals.

"Releasing properties from the ETJ impacts the City because development in the ETJ is subject to limited subdivision regulation as well as regulation of water quality and flooding issues," Shelley Parks, an Austin city spokesperson, said in a statement to Business Insider. "All affect people in both the ETJ and the City itself." 

Tesla did not respond to a request for comment from Business Insider.

When the Texas gigafactory was still under construction before its 2022 opening, Elon Musk promised it would be an "ecological paradise" with walking trails for the public along the neighboring Colorado River.

Musk's companies have had issues with environmental regulations in the past, however. In February, Tesla settled a lawsuit accusing them of mishandling hazardous waste in California. Meanwhile, the Boring Company has been accused of letting untreated wastewater drain into the Colorado River.

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• A billionaire cartel boss was arrested for his involvement in drug trafficking, reports say.
• Karim Bouyakhrichan was released on bail by a Spanish court after paying a $53,000 bond.
• He then fled, and his whereabouts remain unknown.

A billionaire drug baron was arrested in Spain on money laundering charges but was released after paying a $53,000 bond, according to reports. He then simply vanished.

During a press conference on Tuesday, Felix Bolaños, Spain's justice minister, described the development as "worrying news" but added that security forces would bring the man to justice "as soon as possible."

Karim Bouyakhrichan was one of the most important leaders of a Dutch-Moroccan cocaine cartel, according to Spanish authorities, and was arrested along with five other suspects in January.

They were accused of buying 172 properties in Spain worth more than €50 million, about $53 million, to launder the gains of drug trafficking operations, Spain's National Police said in a press release at the time.

This followed a five-year investigation that police say showed the suspects had established a criminal organization involved in large-scale drug trafficking, including the smuggling of significant amounts of cocaine.

The press release did not name Bouyakhrichan but described him as one of the leaders of the so-called Mocro Maffia — a nickname given to a network of drug gangs of Morrocan origin operating in the Netherlands, Belgium, Spain, and Morroco.

According to the BBC, the Mocro Maffia is believed to have smuggled billions of dollars worth of drugs from South America into Europe over the past decade and a half.

Politico referred to Bouyakhrichan as a billionaire who possesses bank accounts and properties around the world.

It also reported that police obtained credible evidence that he'd planned to either kidnap or kill the heir to the Dutch throne, forcing her, out of safety, to move out of student accommodation and back into the royal palace in 2022.

Bouyakhrichan was to be extradited to the Netherlands after authorities there filed an extradition order requesting he be returned to the Netherlands to stand trial for his drug trafficking empire, according to Spanish radio Cadena SER.

But shortly after his arrest, Bouyakhrichan's lawyer challenged his detention, citing a lack of evidence of criminal activity to justify imprisonment and the absence of a risk of flight, per court records seen by Business Insider.

The court rejected all of Bouyakhrichan's lawyer's grounds but ruled that preventing his risk of flight could be achieved with "less burdensome" security measures.

The judge then imposed a €50,000 bond, roughly $53,000, took away Bouyakhrichan's passport, and ordered him to report to the authorities every fifteen days.

According to the BBC, Bouyakhrichan was accidentally released amid confusion over the Dutch extradition request. It described him as one of the most wanted criminals in Europe.

Vincent Veenman, a spokesman at the Dutch public prosecutor's office in The Hague, said it was "unknown" why Bouyakhrichan had not been held in custody pending his extradition, per multiple reports.

"We are currently awaiting a decision on the extradition request," he said, adding that cooperation with the Spanish justice system was "generally good" and that "dozens of suspects are handed over every year."

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• AI is transformative, but it's hard to determine its stock winners, Howard Marks told CNBC.
• "Every bubble starts from widespread conviction," he said.
• Many are betting on an AI wave to lift a number of sectors, from semiconductors to infrastructure.

Artificial intelligence might end up changing the world, but that alone can't determine the success of its underlying assets, Howard Marks said.

"Every bubble starts from widespread conviction," the market veteran told CNBC on Tuesday. "Everybody believes A, they bid the beneficiaries of A up to the moon. It turns out, it's overdone."

When it comes to AI, Marks acknowledged the technology's transformative potential, and he himself can't say whether its beneficiaries are already under or overvalued. 

But instead, AI investing reminded him of the internet's emergence 25 years ago, which also propelled markets sky-high:

"Everybody was sure that the internet would change the world. And it did," he said, but added: "And yet the internet and E-commerce stocks that were the beneficiaries of that thinking in the TMT bubble of the late 90s — the vast majority are now worthless." 

"So to say well, I think that AI will be very important, that's the easy part," the billionaire investor said. "But knowing how it should be reflected in portfolios that's the hard part."

But forecasters are trying to meet this challenge. Just last week, Goldman Sachs outlined the sectors it thinks will win out in the long-term, from semiconductor producers to security software developers.

Meanwhile, Wall Street's other heavy hitters have voiced their own predictions. That includes the "Big Short" investor Steve Eisman, who is betting big on infrastructure to get a boost from AI's electricity demand. 

And looking at more immediate impacts, Bank of America raised its S&P 500 target last month, citing AI spending as a significant driver of growth.

But Marks has generally demonstrated cynicism towards those who make macro predictions, and warned against relying too much on Wall Street forecasts — recently calling the practice an "organized religion."

"Prices are not necessarily right, they're just the best consensus can do," he said in a speech this week.

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Hi! Costco shoppers who scooped up the store's gold bars are learning that being an amateur commodities trader is actually really hard!

In today's big story, we're looking at Tesla's earnings report and what comes next for the EV maker.

What's on deck:

• Markets: Cathie Wood's investors are jumping ship.

• Tech: Threads now has more daily US users than X.

• Business: America produces 40 million tons of plastic waste a year. It's running out of places to put it.

But first, the man with the plan.

If this was forwarded to you, sign up here.

The big story

Tesla's turnaround plan

Bad news: Tesla's earnings report was worse than expected.

Good news: Elon Musk has a plan.

Tesla's disappointing earnings illustrated how bad a year it's having. The EV maker missed profit and revenue estimates, but those weren't the only ugly numbers.

Tesla's free cash flow was negative $2.5 billion in the quarter, a shocking 674% year-over-year drop. (The company did point out it spent $1 billion on AI infrastructure investments this quarter.)

Those figures aren't what you want to see from a public company. And even though Tesla tried to pin the blame on hybrids, such a bad earnings miss isn't usually something Wall Street overlooks.

Except… that's exactly what investors did.

Details on its robotaxis plan and news of expediting the release of an affordable model were all Wall Street needed to get back in on Tesla. Shares popped nearly 11% in premarket trading, a big win for a company down more than 40% on the year.

Tesla's ambitions around robotaxis and an affordable model tap into key trends.

Speeding up the launch of cheaper Tesla models — whenever that may be; details on a timeline were relatively scant — addresses a consumer that has shifted away from wanting big, expensive EVs.

Discussion of robotaxis, meanwhile, allows Tesla to ride the stock market's AI wave that has sent other companies' stock prices skyrocketing over the past year.

Perhaps that's why Musk spent so much of the earnings call discussing autonomy and the progress made with Tesla's Full Self-Driving software.

But having a plan is one thing. Executing it is something else entirely. Musk, for all his accomplishments, hasn't always held firm to future milestones he's targeted.

To that point, Business Insider's Linette Lopez suggested an even bigger initiative Tesla consider: Musk stepping down.

The CEO, she argues, is ultimately responsible for Tesla squandering its lead in the EV market and not better insulating itself from threats when things were going well.

Considering Musk's close ties with some of Tesla's board members, such a drastic move is a long shot. A more realistic request might be Musk pulling back on other responsibilities, but that also seems unlikely. Musk told analysts on the earnings call that Tesla is the majority of his work.

Ultimately, Musk's fate could be decided by investors. Tesla is seeking shareholder approval for Musk's $55 billion pay package, which a Delaware judge has already struck down.

If investors vote against the package at Tesla's annual meeting in June, who knows where Musk — and his AI ambitions — will end up.

3 things in markets

1. The March sell-off in stocks could be the start of something bigger. JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic highlighted a "problematic backdrop" in equities that investors seem to be ignoring. Stubborn inflation and geopolitical concerns aren't going anywhere and "put additional pressure on investors to de-risk," Kolanovic wrote.

2. Cathie Wood's investors are heading for the exits. Outflows for Wood's ARK funds are ramping up after a three-year decline. This year alone the suite of ARK ETFs has net outflows of $2.2 billion, triple what it endured last year.

3. Stocks for a strong economy. Goldman Sachs highlighted 30 names that they think will outperform the market because they're investing heavily in future growth opportunities like artificial intelligence. Meta, Intel, and Micron Technology were among the stocks the bank flagged.

3 things in tech

1. Microsoft is blocking employee access to Perplexity AI. Perplexity AI is one of the largest customers of Microsoft's Azure OpenAI service. Other AI tools, like Google's Gemini chatbot, are also blocked on Microsoft's employee devices.

2. Threads has overtaken X in one key metric. New data shows Meta's Threads is consistently surpassing Elon Musk's X in daily users in the United States. While X still has more monthly users, Threads could be on its way to becoming bigger than its competitor.

3. Scoop: Navan's IPO. The a16z-backed travel and expense platform, which was valued at $9.2 billion back in October 2022, is targeting an April 2025 public listing, a person with direct knowledge of the matter told BI.

3 things in business

1. America is drowning in plastic. In 2018, China stopped taking the United States' plastic imports. The US is now scrambling to find alternatives for the 40 million tons of plastic it produces each year.

2. How Amazon won over skeptical advertisers. Since launching three months ago, Prime Video's ads have made a positive impression on advertisers, luring them in with generous price incentives and sponsorships.

3. The Senate passed a bill that could ban TikTok. Joe Biden has signaled that he'll sign the legislation, which would effectively ban TikTok from the US app store. The final vote was 79 senators in favor, and just 18 opposed.

In other news

• The FTC is fighting for your right to job-hop.

• These 18 senators voted against Ukraine and Israel aid.

• The American Kennel Club's pedophile problem.

• Patriots owner Robert Kraft yanks support for Columbia as Israel-Gaza protests intensify.

• Trump may be held in contempt Tuesday after hush-money DA cites at least 10 gag-order violations.

• Apple sinks to 3rd place in China as iPhone sales slide.

• A hospital in Australia is begging snakebite victims to stop bringing the snakes in with them.

• I went on a date with an AI chatbot. He fell head over heels in love with me, but I got the ick.

What's happening today

• Today's earnings: Boeing, Meta, IBM, and other companies are reporting.

• The US Supreme Court will hear the Idaho abortion ban case.

The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Jordan Parker Erb, editor, in New York. Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. George Glover, reporter, in London.

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• The S&P 500 is at risk of plunging 44% to around a four-year low, Paul Dietrich said.
• The top strategist explained that selling stocks well before they crash can yield outsized returns.
• Dietrich predicted a mild US recession this year based on multiple warning signs and threats.

The stock market may be headed for a 44% crash — and getting out early could pay off, Paul Dietrich said.

B. Riley Wealth Management's chief investment strategist moved his clients out of stocks and into bonds in 2000, and from stocks to cash, bonds, and gold in 2007, he recalled in his April market commentary.

Dietrich's clients missed out on massive run-ups in stocks over the next year or so. But they also escaped staggering blows from the ensuing collapses of the dot-com and housing bubbles.

They wound up netting 7% before fees during the 2000-2002 recession, when the S&P crashed by 49% and the Nasdaq plunged by 78%. They lost about 6% gross of fees during the 2008-2009 recession, but that performance trounced the S&P's 57% decline during the same period.

"Despite the fun and excitement of participation in the current Mardi Gras-like stock market bubble completely untethered to any stock fundamentals, suppose an investor could miss most of a 49% or 57% decline in the S&P 500 index and then get back into the stock market when the leading economic indicators and long-term moving averages indicate the recession is over," Dietrich said.

He emphasized that the "wildly overvalued" S&P would have to drop by 8% to return to its 200-day moving average, and the index has retreated by an average of 36% in past recessions.

Thus, Dietrich said the benchmark could suffer a 44% rout to about 2,800 points — a level it last touched at the height of the pandemic in 2020.

Dietrich also laid out why he still expects a mild recession this year. He pointed to heady stock valuations, charts flashing red, a historic jump in the so-called Buffett Indicator, the risk that interest rates stay higher for longer, and gold prices hitting record highs as signs that the market and economy are headed for trouble.

The Wall Street veteran added that the recession has been delayed by vast amounts of government spending, consumers racking up debt to make purchases, and a historically tight labor market that's showing signs of cracking.

Dietrich's latest warnings warrant skepticism, as the stock market and economy have defied his and other doomsayers' bleak forecasts for years now.

Moreover, famed investors like Warren Buffett have warned against trying to time the market as it's virtually impossible, and steadily investing or "dollar-cost averaging" into an index fund is a far superior strategy.

Yet several of Wall Street's biggest players, including JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon, and Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser, have all cautioned that markets aren't pricing in the risks posed by threats like inflation, recession, and geopolitical strife.

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• Sen. Tommy Tuberville of Alabama has long been opposed to Ukraine aid.
• He delivered a nearly 10-minute floor speech railing against it before the bill passed on Tuesday.
• But during the actual vote, the Alabama senator was nowhere to be found.

Ahead of a final Senate vote to send Ukraine aid to President Joe Biden's desk, Sen. Tommy Tuberville made one last stand against it.

The Alabama Republican delivered a more than nine minute floor speech denouncing further aid on Tuesday, describing Ukraine as a "black hole with no accountability" while accusing House Republican leaders of having "sold out Americans" by allowing a vote on the bill in the first place.

"The war in Ukraine is a stalemate. It has been for a while," said Tuberville. "We should be working with Ukraine and Russia to negotiate an end to this madness."

But when the Senate actually held a voted on the bill shortly after 9 pm on Tuesday, Tuberville was one of just three senators who did not cast votes.

It's not clear why Tuberville missed the vote, and his Senate office did not immediately respond to Business Insider's request for comment. He was present earlier on Tuesday to cast procedural votes against the bill.

Republican Sens. Rand Paul of Kentucky and Tim Scott of South Carolina also missed the final vote. Paul has long been an opponent of Ukraine aid, while Scott said in a statement on Tuesday that he supports the bill.

Sen. Katie Britt, Tuberville's Alabama colleague, voted for the bill on Tuesday after voting against a previous version of the aid package in February.

The more than $61 billion in Ukraine aid was wrapped up in a larger $95 billion package that included more than $14 billion for Israel, $9 billion in humanitarian aid, aid for Taiwan, and a bill to force a sale of TikTok. Tuberville said he supported the Israel aid.

The Alabama senator has long been an opponent of Ukraine aid. In May 2022, he was one of just 11 Republican senators to vote against a $40 billion aid package for the country.

He has incorrectly described Russia as a "communist" country, despite the country's history of capitalism since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.

"He can't feed his people," Tuberville said in February 2022, referring to Russian President Vladimir Putin. "It's a communist country, so he can't feed his people, so they need more farmland."

He has also dismissed the idea of even loaning Ukraine the money, an idea championed by former President Donald Trump.

"I don't see Ukraine having anything unless they're gonna give us part of their country, and we don't want that," Tuberville told BI last month.

On Tuesday, 15 of Tuberville's Republican colleagues voted against the foreign aid bill, while three members of the Democratic caucus did the same.

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• Photos show how breaches of decorum have become more common in an increasingly polarized Congress.
• Marjorie Taylor Greene and Lauren Boebert heckled Joe Biden during the State of the Union.
• In 2023, Kevin McCarthy lost 14 votes for House speaker before winning. He was ousted months later.

Outbursts, scuffles, and statement outfits have become more common among members of Congress in an increasingly polarized political climate that's fueled an excess of election denialism, the House of Representatives struggling to elect a speaker twice in the same year, and legislative gridlock.

Divisions are rife within the parties, too. Most recently, some Republicans have called for Mike Johnson to be booted from his speaker job over the Ukraine aid package, arguing that he is betraying the GOP by working with Democrats.

Here are 15 photos that show how divided Congress has become in recent years.

Many Democratic women wore white to President Donald Trump's 2019 State of the Union address, creating a stark contrast in the House Chamber seating.

The white outfits were a nod to the women's suffrage movement and a message of "solidarity" with each other and women across the US, Florida Rep. Lois Frankel, the chairwoman of the Democratic Women's Working Group, wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter.

At least one Republican woman, Rep. Elise Stefanik, also wore white for the event. However, party lines were clearly visible in the State of the Union seating arrangements.

Rep. Dean Philips, a male congressman from Minnesota, also wore white to honor the cause.

Nancy Pelosi appeared to clap sarcastically during Trump's speech, sparking memes.

Pelosi extended her arms and clapped at Trump with a smirk on her face. It earned her the nickname of "Queen of Condescending Applause" by some, The Washington Post reported. 

Pelosi later told a group of reporters that the clap itself was not meant to be sarcastic and that she was applauding a comment Trump made about rejecting "the politics of revenge, resistance, and retribution, and embrace the boundless potential of cooperation, compromise, and the common good."

When Pelosi made a guest appearance on "RuPaul's Drag Race" in 2022, drag queen Raja Gemini praised what they called a "sarcastic, shady clap," describing it as a "masterclass." 

"It was completely unintentional," Pelosi said with a shrug and a laugh.

Female Democratic lawmakers wore white again to the 2020 State of the Union.

In 2020, the white outfits marked the 100th anniversary of the ratification of the 19th amendment, which gave women the right to vote.

At the end of Trump's 2020 address, Pelosi ripped up her copy of the speech.

Before his speech, Trump appeared to reject a handshake from Pelosi, who spearheaded his impeachment on charges of abuse of power and obstruction of Congress. (He was acquitted of the charges.)

She told reporters that she ripped up the speech because "it was the courteous thing to do considering the alternatives" and that the move was not planned. 

Pelosi's actions ultimately led Republican firebrand Rep. Matt Gaetz to file an ethics complaint for violating House decorum, The Hill reported. Trump also later shared a doctored video to millions of his followers of the incident that was edited to make it seem like she was ripping the speech up as the former president introduced one of the few remaining Tuskegee Airmen from World War II.

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene wore a "Trump won" face mask to take her oath of office after President Joe Biden won the 2020 election.

Greene has repeatedly posted to X about her belief that Trump won the 2020 election, one of several conspiracy theories that she has promoted.

In a video posted to X after the 2020 election, Greene told her followers that there could not be a peaceful transfer of power because Biden "did not win this election."

Two days before the January 6 insurrection, Greene promised at a Trump rally that she would refuse to "certify fraudulent electoral college votes" for the incoming president.

However, under oath in April 2022, Greene denied wanting Congress to vote against certifying Biden as the 2020 election winner.

During Biden's 2022 State of the Union address, Greene and Rep. Lauren Boebert interrupted the speech with frequent outbursts.

Greene and Boebert turned their backs and refused to applaud as Biden entered the House chamber.

During Biden's speech, both tried to start a "build the wall" chant while the president spoke about immigration. Boebert also accused Biden of being responsible for the deaths of US soldiers during the withdrawal from Afghanistan as he spoke about his late son Beau's battle with cancer following his deployment to Iraq, yelling, "You put them there, 13 of them!"

While their interruptions were widely condemned by Democrats and a few Republicans, the House of Representatives ultimately did not pass a resolution of disapproval the way it did when Republican Rep. Joe Wilson yelled "You lie!" at President Barack Obama during his first State of the Union address in 2009.

"I think they should just shut up," former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi later said in response to Boebert and Greene.

During a 2022 hearing, the House January 6 committee displayed a photo of Sen. Josh Hawley raising his fist towards rioters before they breached the Capitol.

The committee juxtaposed the image with security footage of Hawley fleeing from rioters as they forced their way into the Capitol. 

The Washington Post reported that Republican Sen. Mitt Romney yelled, "You have caused this!" at Hawley as senators sheltered in place during the insurrection.

Hawley previously told The Huffington Post that the photo did not show him "encouraging rioters."

"At the time that we were out there, folks were gathered peacefully to protest, and they have a right to do that," Hawley said. "They do not have a right to assault cops."

It took 15 rounds of voting in January 2023 to elect Republican Rep. Kevin McCarthy as the next speaker of the House, highlighting tensions within the Republican party.

Due to the GOP's slim majority in the House of Representatives, McCarthy needed the support of nearly all Republicans to reach the necessary 218 votes to become speaker.

A group of 20 Republicans, members of the far-right House Freedom Caucus, repeatedly withheld their support at the start of the 118th Congress, bringing the proceedings to a standstill.

The House cannot swear-in lawmakers, introduce any bills, or pass legislation until a speaker is elected.

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was photographed smiling in the background as Republican lawmakers argued during the second day of the proceedings.

After GOP Rep. Kat Cammack said that Democrats had been drinking during the speaker vote, Ocasio-Cortez responded in a post on X: "If only! If Dems took a shot every time McCarthy lost a Republican, we'd all be unconscious by now."

Photos from inside the House Chamber showed the growing frustration — and boredom — with the chaotic votes.

Members of Congress were spotted yawning, reading comics, and bringing their pets to the House floor as the votes dragged on. Rep. Katie Porter read "The Subtle Art of Not Giving a F*ck" by Mark Manson during the 14th speaker vote.

Porter told MSNBC that the book was actually the fourth book she had read that week, adding that she "read a book basically every day during those interminable, alphabetical votes, in which the Republicans struggled to find leadership."

Porter's now running in the election to fill Sen. Dianne Feinstein's seat in the Senate after Feinstein died in late September, ultimately leading Gov. Gavin Newsom to appoint Sen. Laphonza Butler to temporarily fill the position.

Rep. Mike Rogers appeared to lunge at Rep. Matt Gaetz, who opposed McCarthy's bid for speaker, during the 14th vote.

Rep. Richard Hudson held Rogers back.

Rogers later told The New York Post that at the time, he was "exasperated" that Gaetz was "treating McCarthy so badly," which ultimately led him to walk over to where Gaetz was sitting to talk.

As for the image, Rogers said he was actually about to walk away from Gaetz when Hudson yanked him away.

As Biden delivered the 2023 State of the Union address, Greene rose from her seat and gave a thumbs-down gesture.

Before the State of the Union in February, McCarthy told CNN that there would be no "childish games" at the speech.

"We're members of Congress. We have a code of ethics of how we should portray ourselves," McCarthy said. "And that's exactly what we'll do."

McCarthy then struggled to maintain control of his caucus as Republicans repeatedly interrupted and heckled the president during his speech. McCarthy was seen shushing Republicans such as Greene, who shouted "China spied on us" and "Liar."

The House voted to remove McCarthy as speaker in October, once again launching the chaotic process of electing a new speaker.

During the first vote on Tuesday, 20 House Republicans voted against Rep. Jim Jordan's bid for speaker. In the second vote on Wednesday, that number rose to 22.

During the first vote, Boebert was seated next to Rep. George Santos, who was photographed pointing and laughing. Santos was accused of stealing campaign donors' credit card information and paying his own campaign in a superseding indictment filed on October 10. He has denied wrongdoing.

Divisions within the Democratic party were visible during the 2024 State of the Union when Reps. Rashida Tlaib and Cori Bush held signs calling for a cease-fire in Israel and Gaza.

Tlaib and Bush held signs that read "Stop sending bombs" and wore traditional Palestinian scarves known as keffiyehs. Rep. Summer Lee, seated next to Tlaib, also wore a keffiyeh.

Israel's military actions targeting Hamas operatives and infrastructure in Gaza have had a devastating human toll. The issue remains divisive among Democrats, with some in the party's progressive wing raising the possibility of conditioning US aid to Israel and some voters casting "uncommitted" ballots in primaries to protest Biden's handling of the war.

Greene also heckled Biden's address as she had in the past, but this time, Biden responded.

Greene was heard repeatedly shouting, "Say her name," goading Biden to acknowledge a 22-year-old nursing student named Laken Riley who was killed in Georgia in February. A Venezuelan man who entered the US illegally was charged with kidnapping and murder in connection with her death.

Biden responded to Greene by holding up a pin with Riley's name.

"Laken Riley, an innocent young woman who was killed by an illegal. That's right," Biden said, though he mispronounced her name as "Lincoln."

Biden later told MSNBC that he regretted using the term "illegal" and should have said "undocumented" instead.

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• On Tuesday, the Senate passed a bill that could ban TikTok from US app stores.
• Biden's already said he'd sign it into law.
• Banning the app in the US could be disastrous to Biden's reelection chances.

The Senate passed a multifaceted foreign aid bill in a bipartisan landslide vote on Tuesday that, if President Joe Biden signs it into law, could ban TikTok from US app stores.

While Biden seems set to do just that — he said earlier in March that he'd sign the legislation — the move could easily backfire on his already-struggling 2024 reelection campaign.

Referred to by most as a "ban," the bill gives any company owned by a "foreign adversary" 270 days to either divest or sell to a US-based company before facing a hefty fine and potential legal action. TikTok is certainly now closer to getting banned in the US, but the nearly yearlong timeframe the bill — as well as the likelihood this will lead to a lengthy legal battle — means a ban would only occur post-election.

Pro-TikTok Americans and creators protested against an earlier version of the proposed ban for weeks in March, with some saying they worried their careers built on the app would be "deleted forever."

The app even took an unusual step to rally its users to speak out against the legislation:

"Stop a TikTok shutdown," the app said in a message to its users, linking them to their member of Congress' contact information. "Speak up now—before your government strips 170 million Americans of their Constitutional rights and free expression."

Members of Congress reportedly said before a House vote that TikTok's push backfired, making them more likely to vote in favor of banning it.

While Biden's been on board with the proposed TikTok ban for months, it's increasingly seeming like a political miscalculation with the November presidential election approaching.

A severe political misstep

For months, national polls have indicated that a rematch between Biden and Republican former President Donald Trump could be as close as the 2020 election, where five states won by Biden were decided by less than 85,000 votes. Many of those polls have shown that Trump appears to possess a slight advantage this go around.

With Biden already struggling to win over younger voters, openly backing the demise of one of the most popular social media apps in the world doesn't seem like the wisest move campaign-wise.

Trump, who tried and failed during his own presidency to ban the app, recently spoke out against the bill, noting that restricting it would likely benefit Facebook.

Trump's change of heart occurred soon after he met with Jeff Yass, a billionaire Republican donor and a prominent investor in TikTok's parent company.

While The New York Times reported in March that a "person close to the campaign" now expects Yass to make a pro-Trump donation, the former president's motives may be more than a way for his campaign to earn a quick buck. The closer the anti-TikTok bill gets to passing, the more easily he'll be able to convince young voters that Biden's behind the app shuttering, not him.

The former president tried doing just that on Monday, telling his followers on Truth Social, "Just so everyone knows, especially the young people, Crooked Joe Biden is responsible for banning TikTok."

In an election that could be extremely close, endorsing bills as decisive as the anti-TikTok one or gunning for Taylor Swift's endorsement — or lack thereof — could determine who wins control of the White House.

Just as Biden's slogan goes, that's "no malarkey."

Wednesday, April 24, 2024 — This story has been updated with news of the US Senate's passage of the bill that includes the TikTok ban.

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