Author: openjargon

  • You’ll soon be able to get an automatic refund when your flight is delayed or canceled

    A person holds a suitcase in front of an airport departures board
    • Airlines must start providing passengers with automatic refunds when flights are delayed or canceled.
    • New regulations announced Wednesday mean passengers can also get automatic refunds on delayed baggage.
    • Previously, airlines set their own policies about when passengers were eligible for refunds.

    Airlines are to be required to provide passengers with "prompt" automatic refunds when their flights are delayed or canceled under a new rule from the Department of Transportation, announced on Wednesday.

    The regulations, which are being rolled out over the next six to 12 months, also entitle passengers to automatic refunds for delays to checked bags and for airlines' failure to provide paid-for extra services.

    Under the DOT regulations, passengers can get a refund if their flight is canceled or significantly changed and they don't accept alternative transportation or travel credits offered. This includes domestic flights delayed by more than three hours and international flights delayed by more than six hours.

    Significant changes that make passengers eligible for a refund include a change in the departure or arrival airport, an increase in the number of connections, and being downgraded to a lower traveling class. Passengers can also get a refund if they're switched to connections at different airports or flights on different planes that are less accessible for a person with a disability.

    Previously, airlines set their own standards for which circumstances passengers could get a refund in, which could make it confusing for passengers trying to figure out whether they were eligible for a refund and how to apply, the DOT said in a press release.

    It added that some airlines gave passengers a travel credit or voucher by default, meaning they couldn't use their refund to rebook on another airline "without navigating a cumbersome request process."

    Passengers are also entitled to a refund of their checked bag fee if their bag is delayed and they file a mishandled baggage report. The DOT says that the policy covers bags that aren't delivered within 12 hours of a domestic flight arriving at the gate, or 15 to 30 hours for an international flight, depending on the length of the flight.

    And if passengers pay extra for a service such as WiFi, seat selection, or in-flight entertainment and then don't receive this, they're entitled to a refund for the fee they paid.

    "The new rule makes it easy for passengers to obtain refunds when airlines cancel or significantly change their flights, significantly delay their checked bags, or fail to provide the extra services they purchased," the DOT said in a press release.

    As well as being automatic, the refunds must be "prompt," which it describes as within seven business days for credit card purchases and 20 calendar days for other payment methods.

    The refunds must be in whatever payment method the passenger originally used, whether cash, credit card, or airline miles, rather than substituting vouchers or travel credits unless the passenger accepts alternative compensation.  

    The DOT also noted that airlines must provide a full refund, including all government-imposed taxes and fees and airline-imposed fees.

    Many passengers have previously spoken to Business Insider about their troubles getting compensation for delayed and canceled flights and lost luggage. In 2020, when flights were canceled due to waves of COVID lockdowns, the DOT got more than 102,000 complaints from airline customers in total. Nearly 90,000 were related to refunds.

    Travel chaos spiked in the summer of 2022 as vacationers returned to the skies after the pandemic canceled their plans during the two prior years. Summer travel this year is also expected to be significantly disrupted, with Boeing delaying some plane deliveries.

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  • Live updates: Meta to report quarterly earnings today after market close

    Meta founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg speaks during the Meta Connect event on September 27, 2023
    • Meta reports first-quarter earnings on Tuesday.
    • The company recently released its latest AI chatbot, Llama 3.
    • Meta's stock is up roughly 40% in 2024.

    Meta will report first-quarter earnings on Wednesday after the closing bell.

    The company has had a strong start to 2024, riding the wave of interest in artificial intelligence. JPMorgan says that even though AI dominates investor chatter, the buzz is shifting towards recognizing Meta's early wins in coding efficiencies and cost savings.

    Meta's stock was up 40% year-to-date through Tuesday's close, handily outpacing the the S&P 500's 6% gain.

    Meta's consensus first-quarter revenue estimate is $36.12 billion.

    1st quarter

    • Revenue estimate: $36.12 billion

      • Advertising rev. estimate: $35.57 billion

      • Family of Apps revenue estimate: $35.52 billion

      • Reality Labs revenue estimate: $494.1 million

      • Other revenue estimate: $286.4 million

    • Adjusted operating income estimate: $13.45 billion

      • Family of Apps operating income estimate: $17.76 billion

      • Reality Labs operating loss estimate: $4.52 billion

    • Operating margin estimate: 37.2%

    • EPS estimate: $4.30

    • Facebook daily active users estimate: 2.11 billion

    • Facebook monthly active users estimate: 3.08 billion

    • Ad impressions estimate: +17.1%

      • Average price per ad estimate: +5.85%

    • Average Family service users per day estimate: 3.16 billion

    • Average Family service users per month estimate: 3.97 billion

    2nd quarter

    • Revenue estimate: $38.24 billion

    Full-year 2024

    • Total expenses estimate: $96.87 billion

    • Capital expenditure estimate: $34.5 billion

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  • History is repeating itself as MrBeast and T-series battle for YouTube’s top spot

    MrBeast, T-series logo
    MrBeast is going up against T-Series for YouTube's number 1 spot.

    • MrBeast is set to surpass T-Series as YouTube's top channel.
    • This shift marks a return to creator-led content over corporate channels.
    • Despite facing some scrutiny, MrBeast's success signifies the power of individual creators.

    MrBeast was buying up billboards back in 2019 in support of his friend and fellow YouTuber Felix Kjellberg, better known as PewDiePie.

    Kjellberg was in the midst of a battle for YouTube's number one spot because another channel — the Indian music label T-Series — was closing in.

    Kjellberg had held the title since 2013, but T-Series was fast approaching, leading YouTubers all over the platform to urge people to subscribe to PewDiePie and keep YouTube a place for independent creators over corporations.

    Now, for MrBeast, history is repeating itself, except this time, he is the one closing in on YouTube's biggest channel, T-Series, And it looks like he's soon going to win the top spot.

    The victory would be big for MrBeast personally, but also for all the other creators who long for the old days of YouTube and have voiced concerns over the platform's direction for some time.

    While it is thriving from a business standpoint, many long-standing creators are questioning their future on YouTube with the looming threat of more AI-generated content, as well as the platform's constant changes.

    Amid an expected mass exodus from the platform, a win for independent creators could have a positive ripple effect.

    YouTube going back to its roots

    Donaldson said one of the reasons he wants to hold the top spot is in honor of Kjellberg.

    Kjellberg lost the battle with T-Series back in 2019. The race to 100 million subscribers was eagerly viewed across the platform but was also peppered with controversy.

    Some of Kjellberg's fans were accused of racism toward T-Series and its supporters, and Kjellberg himself was criticized for some of the lyrics in his diss track "bitch lasagna" containing offensive stereotypes of Indian people.

    Overall, though, T-Series' victory was seen as a loss for all independent YouTubers, who considered it a move toward commercialization.

    At the time of writing, T-Series has 264 million subscribers, while MrBeast, whose real name is Jimmy Donaldson, is close behind with 253 million.

    "Naw, subscribe to me instead," Donaldson replied to a recent post by T-Series on X asking people to support the channel. It received 137,000 likes and 2.6 million views.

    According to the social media analytics site SocialBlade, Donaldson is forecast to reach 275 million subscribers in the next 2 months, while T-Series will reach 268 million in the same period.

    Donaldson is known for over-the-top stunts such as shredding Lamborghinis, giving away massive amounts of cash, and recreating the Netflix phenomenon "Squid Game." He's also become famous for his charity work, planting millions of trees, building wells, and paying for people to have cataract surgery.

    Despite his huge success and earning around $700 million a year, Donaldson is a creator through and through and invests everything he makes back into his videos.

    Gabe Gordon, an influencer marketing expert and the CEO of digital agency Reach Agency, told Business Insider the shift "marks a major change in YouTube's landscape."

    In 2019, Donaldson wasn't even in the top 10 creators on YouTube, so he's come a long way in five years.

    "It's a testament that not only is creator-based content the most popular, beating out music, but YouTube has fully returned to its roots as a creator-based and fueled platform," Gordon said.

    Creators are on his side

    Donaldson's career has not been free from criticism. Some branded him a "white savior" in response to his philanthropic efforts and accused him of exploiting poor people for views.

    Donaldson posted his thoughts on X in response, suggesting people on social media are never happy. In one post, he said despite saying he wanted to use his money "to help people" and promising to give all his wealth away before he died, he was still branded as "bad."

    The working environment he cultivates has also been scrutinized, such as how he calls his employees "friends of friends" rather than giving them official titles. (Donaldson hasn't responded directly about his work culture, but a spokesperson told Time that safety on set was "incredibly important and taken very seriously." They also said medics and "experienced professionals" were on set at all times.)

    But overall, Donaldson's success is unmatched, with an upcoming Amazon Prime show, his Feastables and MrBeast Burger empire, and multiple enviable revenue streams for his videos.

    Creators, in general, are also on his side.

    Isla Moon, a YouTuber and OnlyFans creator, told BI that Donaldson is setting trends and standards for content, whether that's titles, thumbnails, or the way he runs his business.

    He's been setting an example for other independent creators since the start of his career, Moon added, and catching up to T-Series "proves his formula works."

    "This breakthrough will show independent creators that they can be more successful than large corporations," she said. "However, it requires years of work, a willingness to learn as you go, delegation, and teamwork."

    Donaldson has invested a lot of time and money into staying relevant, said Katya Varbanova, the founder and CEO of Viral Marketing Stars.

    He makes changes to his content when he thinks the time is right. For example, now he's in his mid-20s, he's started slowing his videos down with the goal of focusing more on storytelling and longer-form content.

    What sets him apart even more is that he's made YouTube his main objective, Varbanova added.

    Donaldson has been determined to become YouTube's No. 1 creator for some time. Over the past few years, he has "increased his team, his production value, and his ambitions in order to reach that goal," Varbanova said.

    While some veteran creators are settling down and focusing on their families or going off-platform, Donaldson still puts everything he has into YouTube.

    "MrBeast has made that choice, to make this his number one priority," Varbanova said.

    "Once again, traditional media will be reminded of the power of individual creators."

    BI has contacted Donaldson's reps for comment.

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  • The US is preparing to hit back at China’s glut of cheap solar panels by targeting its allies

    This photo taken on Jan. 4, 2024 shows solar panels installed on the roof of a residential house in Berlin, Germany.
    Solar panels installed on the roof of a residential house in Berlin, Germany.

    • US solar companies accused Chinese firms in Southeast Asia of dumping cheap solar panels on the market.
    • A glut of solar panels has cut prices in half in the past year to as low as 10 cents per watt.
    • US solar companies want the Biden administration to impose steeper tariffs on imports.

    The world is awash in solar panels after Chinese-owned firms flooded the market with cheap exports.

    Now, seven US solar companies are fighting back against what they say is a dire threat to America's efforts to build up a manufacturing sector of its own.

    Companies including Qcells, First Solar, and Swift Solar on Wednesday asked the Biden administration to slap tariffs on solar cells from four countries in Southeast Asia. The US solar companies allege that Chinese-owned firms operating in Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam are illegally undercutting the market.

    The request follows an unprecedented wave of imports from the region last year. Those four countries combined accounted for about 80% of US solar panel imports during the second half of 2023, according to S&P data. There is now an 18-month supply of solar panels sitting in warehouses, and prices have been cut in half in the past year to as low as 10 cents per watt. In Germany, panels are so cheap that they're being used to line garden fences.

    "In the past, we've been dependent on foreign oil from our adversaries," Tim Brightbill, a partner at Wiley Rein LLP representing the solar companies, told reporters. "We should not make the same mistake with respect to solar power. Solar was invented here. It was perfected here. There is no reason why America should be dependent on Chinese companies."

    The petition by US solar companies comes at a critical time for President Joe Biden. On the campaign trail, he's touted how his policies to tackle the climate crisis are creating jobs. More than $111 billion worth of investment has been announced in renewable energy manufacturing projects alone, largely fueled by tax breaks in the Inflation Reduction Act.

    But US solar makers say their businesses can't compete without stronger safeguards against China, which is outpacing US investment by hundreds of billions of dollars a year. CubicPV, a Massachusetts-based company, in February canceled plans for a new factory and cut its workforce in half, citing the surge in cheap imports from China.

    Industry analysts estimate that China accounts for more than 80% of global solar production, with much of the rest occurring in Southeast Asia and funded by Chinese-headquartered firms.

    US trade policy blocks solar panel imports directly from China. But the Commerce Department last year determined that five Chinese companies were shipping products through Southeast Asian countries to avoid steep taxes at the US border. Despite the findings, the Biden administration held off on imposing tariffs because they will be reinstated in June when a two-year waiver expires. That waiver was initially implemented to ensure the US could keep expanding solar power to meet climate goals while domestic manufacturers built up their operations.

    But in recent weeks, administration officials, including Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, have said the US is evaluating new strategies to counter China's dominance over green technology, including tariffs.

    The petition by US solar companies — known as an anti-dumping and countervailing duty case — could lead to that. It kicks off a yearlong investigation by the US Commerce Department and International Trade Commission. The agencies will look at solar subsidies in Southeast Asian countries, as well as subsidies from the Chinese government. The probe will help determine whether solar panels were sold in the US at prices below the cost of production.

    China, for its part, has dismissed the concerns. After Yellen met with Chinese Premier Li Qiang in April, his office told The New York Times: "The development of China's new energy industry will make an important contribution to the worldwide green and low-carbon transition."

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  • Zelenskyy explains his plan to win against Putin and the future of his presidency

    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy talked about what it will take to maintain Ukrainian independence, his soldiers’ morale, and the country’s next presidential election in an exclusive video interview with German media house Axel Springer.

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  • Private equity is getting into the special education business. It’s not all going smoothly.

    school and playground
    Private special education-focused schools are being snapped up by private equity.

    • BI just published an investigation into special education-focused schools owned by PE firms.
    • Cost-cutting to maximize profits has some saying that quality has suffered.
    • It's an important story you should read.

    My colleague Meghan Morris just published an investigation into what happened to a chain of special education-focused private schools when a private equity firm took over.

    As you might guess, it wasn't all good.

    It's an important story because, unlike an investment in, say, a button factory or a call center, this company has a lot of power over some of our most vulnerable young people.

    Meghan found that cost-cutting and other practices led some parents to believe their kids were getting a lesser education. For its part, the school chain said it'd made investments in staff and facilities under PE ownership.

    The story comes as private equity firms also have been buying into hospitals and healthcare in recent years. There's some research that this has led to worse patient outcomes. And in March, the FTC announced it's investigating PE's potential detrimental effect on healthcare.

    Meghan's story is something every parent — and every taxpayer — should know about. Go read it here.

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  • US weapons could start arriving in Ukraine within days, but it still has a major problem that aid can’t fix

    Tnak
    A tank fires a shot during a combat mission against Russian positions on February 19, 2024 in Chasiv Yar, Ukraine.

    • US weapons could begin arriving in Ukraine in a matter of days, according to The New York Times.
    • Russia is intensifying attacks on Ukraine in the window before aid arrives. 
    • There is a vital problem that US aid can't fix: a lack of Ukrainian troops.

    The release of a $61 billion aid bill by the US Senate on Tuesday is a massive boost to Ukraine in its battle against Russia's invasion.

    According to The New York Times, US weapons could start arriving in Ukraine within days. But on parts of the front line, Ukraine's situation is desperate. And it still has a major problem that aid can't fix: a lack of troops.

    "The most important source of Ukrainian weakness is the lack of manpower," Konrad Muzyka, director of the Rochan military consultancy in Poland, told Reuters.

    Oleksandr, a battalion commander, told The Washington Post in February that companies in his unit are staffed at around 35% of normal levels.

    With this shortage of manpower, Ukraine is fighting off intensifying attacks as Russia seeks to exploit the window before crucial aid arrives, think tank The Institute for the Study of War said Sunday.

    US President Joe Biden said he'll sign the US aid bill Wednesday, meaning that US military equipment from bases in Europe can begin arriving in Ukraine in a matter of days.

    But it's unclear how long it'll take to arrive in sufficient amounts at the front line to make a difference, with one Ukrainian MP telling The Associated Press it could take months.

    In the strategically crucial city of Chasiv Yar in Donestk, East Ukraine, The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday that the situation is increasingly desperate for Ukraine's military.

    Russia has used glide bombs to devastating effect on Ukrainian positions in the city, and Ukrainian forces are being outfired at a 10 to one ratio, the report said.

    Russian drone strikes, the report said, mean that crucial supplies and reinforcements aren't getting through.

    "During that time, soldiers sometimes run out of food, water and medicine. Attack drones hunt vehicles bringing materiel and fresh troops to the front line. Soldiers with treatable wounds die waiting days for evacuations because no one can reach them," reported The Wall Street Journal.

    American weapons will help Ukraine's forces counter the attacks. Meanwhile, Ukraine's government has reduced the draft age from 27 to 25, meaning thousands of new recruits will soon be deployed on the front line.

    This week, Ukraine said it had suspended consular services for military-age male Ukrainians abroad, in an apparent attempt to get tough on young men who fled the country to avoid being sent to fight.

    In the meantime, Russia is battling against a weakened enemy.

    "I would expect the situation to probably continue to deteriorate over the next three months, but if mobilization goes according to plan and the US aid is unblocked, then the situation should improve from autumn onwards,"Muzyka, the Polish analyst, told Reuters.

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  • Hackers stole a pile of cash from an anti-Trump super PAC: report

    A digital billboard truck, showing a close-up of Donald Trump's face on a screen, sponsored by The Lincoln Project tries to park outside a campaign rally with Republican presidential candidate and former President Donald Trump at the Grappone Conference Center on January 19, 2024 in Concord, New Hampshire
    A digital billboard truck sponsored by the Lincoln Project outside a New Hampshire Trump rally on January 19, 2024.

    • The Lincoln Project, a prominent super PAC, lost $35,000 to hackers via fraudulent transactions.
    • The group said that one of its vendors was hacked and sent it authentic-looking invoices.
    • The Lincoln Project, which opposes Trump, said the loss wouldn't affect its operations.

    A prominent super PAC vocally opposed to former President Donald Trump has been swindled out of $35,000 by hackers, according to Raw Story.

    In its filings to the FEC, the Lincoln Project reported two February transactions, of $15,000 and $20,000, as "under dispute" and marked as "fraudulent."

    A spokesperson, Greg Minchak, told Raw Story: "A vendor's email was hacked, with the hackers producing authentic-looking invoices that were sent from our vendor's legitimate email account."

    The Lincoln Project did not immediately respond to Business Insider's request for comment, sent outside of US working hours.

    The hack affected several of the unnamed vendor's clients, Minchak told the outlet.

    The Lincoln Project took immediate action to mitigate the issue, he added, including improving how it confirms payments and notifying its bank's fraud department.

    The hack "did not impact our operations in any way in the fight for a democratic future for our nation," Minchak said.

    The Lincoln Project burst into public view in 2019 as a hub for disillusioned conservatives to signal their dislike of MAGA Republicanism.

    The group raised more than $87 million in that election cycle, according to Open Secrets — partly due to its scrappy and sometimes controversial approach to publicity.

    Its fundraising is far more muted this time around, with the group having raised just under $11 million in the 2024 election cycle so far.

    In 2021, Lincoln Project cofounder John Weaver admitted sending "inappropriate," sexually charged messages to a number of men, as Axios first reported.

    In 2022, after anti-Trump GOP Rep. Liz Cheney lost her seat, the group declared that the Republican Party had become an "authoritarian nationalist cult."

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  • Millennial wealth is booming. It turns out avocado toast didn’t tank them after all.

    millennial experiences
    • Millennials' wealth saw historic growth from 2019 to 2023, according to a new report.
    • Despite the pandemic recession, millennial wealth increased due to factors like a robust labor market.
    • The wealth growth even likely impacted lower-income millennials.

    After years of killing off brands, languishing with student loans, and splurging on avocado toast instead of buying houses, millennials might finally be emerging on top.

    A new report from the Center for American Progress, a left-leaning think tank, looks at how wealth changed for different age cohorts from 2019 to 2023 by analyzing data from the Federal Reserve's Distributional Financial Accounts.

    The analysis found good news for the much-beleaguered millennial generation: Their wealth grew at a historic clip.

    Per CAP's analysis, from the end of 2019 to the end of 2023, the average wealth of households under 40 grew by 49% — a $85,000 increase from $174,000 to $259,000. That rate of rapid wealth growth has never happened before in the data series' history, per the analysis, and it comes after wealth growth remained relatively stagnant for young Americans pre-pandemic.

    Here's the whopper: Wealth gains were even higher when looking just at millennials, who were ages 23 to 38 in 2019; they saw their wealth double from the end of 2019 and 2023.

    To be sure, a cohort entering their prime earning years is expected to see a big wealth gain as its members buy houses and begin to invest in earnest. Indeed, housing wealth rose, and more households under 35 owned property in 2023 than in 2019; at the same time, credit card and student loan debt fell.

    But the most surprising piece of the findings is that those gains came during and after the pandemic recession — a type of contraction that, historically, has meant far worse economic outcomes for the younger workers caught up in its wake.

    "Millennials weathered the pandemic recession much better financially and with an improved financial security outlook than Gen X and the Baby Boomers did when they experienced recessions at similar ages," report authors Brendan Duke and Christian Weller write.

    For instance, during 2007's Great Recession, Gen X was between 27 and 42 — similar to millennials heading into the pandemic. But their real wealth only grew by 4% in the four years following that recession. Similarly, baby boomers were 26 to 44 during the 1990 recession and saw their real wealth grow by 46% in the four years after their recession started. All of those pale in comparison to how well millennials made out.

    The wealth gains come after millennials also weathered the Great Recession early in their careers and have borne a substantial brunt of the student loan crisis. It's yet another data point showing how the pandemic economic recovery diverged from past contractions and may have chipped away at the tough odds millennials were facing down.

    Why millennials are faring so well in the wake of the pandemic recession

    You might be able to chalk some of millennials' gains up to the robust labor market that pandemic-era stimulus birthed.

    "The pandemic and unprecedented support we gave families—including young people—through cash payments, student loan pauses, and more helped drive the initial surge in wealth for younger Americans," Duke, one of the report's authors, told Business Insider. "We have sustained this wealth boom with a historically strong labor market that is pulling in younger workers and delivering strong inflation-adjusted wage growth at the beginning of their careers."

    Other research has unearthed similar findings. As BI's Noah Sheidlower previously reported, Americans under 35 saw their real median net worth grow by 143% from 2019 to 2022; that's per the Federal Reserve's Survey of Consumer Finances, which mostly recently tracked wealth and net worth data through 2022. This data, as the authors of the CAP analysis note, suggests that wealth gains weren't just reserved for the top-earning millennials since both median and average wealth grew.

    "This suggests that the strong wealth growth for younger Americans is broad-based and not the result of strong growth of a handful of wealthy younger households," the authors write.

    However, the wealthiest Americans, on the whole, saw their net worth grow at higher rates, per SCF.

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    Meanwhile, the Liberty Street Economics blog at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York found that Americans under 40 saw their real wealth grow by nearly 80% from the first quarter of 2019 through the last quarter of 2023. As that report notes, financial assets were a major component of younger Americans' wealth growing.

    And so, it might finally be time for millennials to shine. They still might not be able to buy houses, though.

    "We need to keep this robust labor market going and Congress needs to set its sights on younger Americans' greatest affordability challenge: housing," Duke said.

    Are you a millennial who fared economically better during the last few years? Contact this reporter at jkaplan@businessinsider.com.

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  • Is the US really closer to banning TikTok? Yes. And, also: No.

    tiktok app being deleted
    TikTok is one step closer to being banned after the US Senate passed a bill that contains a measure to force its owners to sell.

    • The Senate passed a bill that contains a TikTok ban, and President Biden could sign it this week.
    • But that doesn't mean TikTok will be banned in the US anytime soon.
    • At the very earliest, a ban wouldn't kick in until 2025. It could take a lot longer than that, though.

    The US Senate passed a foreign-aid bill late Tuesday that contains a measure that would ban TikTok.

    Does that mean TikTok is getting closer to being banned in the US?

    Absolutely.

    Will TikTok get banned in the US anytime soon?

    No.

    President Joe Biden is expected to sign the bill into law this week, but TikTok won't go anywhere immediately.

    At the very earliest, the ban wouldn't go into effect until nine months after Biden signs the bill — meaning 2025. But even that is unlikely to happen.

    Let's explain.

    I remember reading about a maybe-TikTok-ban bill last month. Has something changed?

    A little bit.

    In March, the House passed a bill requiring ByteDance, TikTok's Chinese owner, to sell the US operations of TikTok to someone who isn't based in a "foreign adversary" country; if not, the app would effectively be banned in the US.

    Since then, the bill's sponsors made two changes: The first and most important one was bundling the bill along with measures calling for US aid to Ukraine and Israel. While forcing TikTok to sell or leave has had mixed political support, the aid packages had been a priority for much of Congress. Combining all three things meant the TikTok bill would likely be approved as part of the package deal.

    The language around the proposed ban has also been tweaked. Instead of requiring ByteDance to sell off its US operations in six months, the company now has nine months to get a deal done. And the bill also gives a US president the power to extend that new deadline by another three months if there's a deal in the works.

    So you're saying ByteDance really has a year to sell TikTok to a different owner?

    Yes. But also, no.

    If Biden signs the bill, as he's expected to this week, that nine-months-to-one-year countdown starts. Except that ByteDance has already said it will challenge the law in court, and will presumably seek an injunction — putting the entire thing on pause. And a court battle could take a very long time.

    For reference: In May 2023, Montana lawmakers passed their own TikTok-ban bill; in November, a federal judge blocked the measure. That case is working its way to federal appeals court.

    OK. But the bill has passed, and what if it does hold up in court? What happens then? Does TikTok disappear from my phone?

    No.

    If ByteDance can't or won't find a buyer for US TikTok, the bill requires Google and Apple to remove TikTok from their app stores — something they have practice doing in other countries. But that wouldn't shut down TikTok in the US itself — it would just make it very difficult for the app to add more US-based users.

    The bill would also prohibit US-based internet companies from helping TikTok maintain or update the service. So TikTok could continue to operate in the US, but its owner would have a harder time keeping it going and growing.

    I remember hearing about people who wanted to buy TikTok to keep it going in the US. What's going on with that?

    Good question. The first thing to resolve is whether China would actually allow ByteDance to sell one of the country's biggest internet successes at metaphorical gunpoint. Then there are plenty of technical questions about how a sale would work and how TikTok could function if cleaved off from its main owner.

    In any case, the most prominent would-be buyer for US TikTok, so far, is Steve Mnuchin, the former treasury secretary from the Trump administration. But Mnuchin himself doesn't have the money for the deal. More important, he's reportedly telling investors that he would essentially rebuild TikTok's vaunted algorithm himself, which makes some observers skeptical about its chance of success.

    Wednesday, April 24, 2024 — This story has been updated with news of the US Senate's passage of the bill that includes the TikTok ban.

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