Author: openjargon

• The US is recovering from a physician shortage and worker numbers remain below pre-pandemic trends.
• Small businesses are seeing labor growth this year, but hospitals still have staffing shortages.
• One reason why is that workers in the healthcare sector have seen "soft wage growth" recently.

The US may be recovering from a physician shortage, but don't expect to spend less time in hospital waiting rooms this year.

Healthcare worker numbers are steadily growing but remain below pre-pandemic trends, according to a Bank of America report published in April. The bank's data and analysis firm, The Bank of America Institute, based findings on internal workforce data collected between 2019 and 2024.

US Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows that the healthcare sector is 1.6% behind on growth based on pre-pandemic projections. Outpatient care centers are 9.4% behind on growth, while the hospital labor force has seen small gains at 0.3%.

One of the reasons job growth has been behind, according to the Bank of America report, is that workers in the healthcare sector have also seen "soft wage growth" in recent years. Additionally, the report found many employees are still underpaid because they tend to interact more with clients and work more labor-intensive hours than employees in other industries.

Between April 2022 and April 2023 — the most recent available data — the national median time patients spent in the emergency department was 162 minutes, according to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. In the same period between 2020 and 2021, CMS found that time was 149 minutes.

The pandemic worsened an already growing problem, as unemployment rates jumped, more people needed urgent medical care, and reports of doctor and nurse burnout skyrocketed. In fact, healthcare workers made up a significant portion of the people leaving their jobs during the Great Resignation.

Ambulatory care — which includes all appointments and treatments that don't require hospital admission — makes up half of all jobs in the healthcare sector, Bank of America found. Hospitals employ just over 30% of healthcare workers while under 20% of employees work at nursing and residential care facilities.

Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows that the healthcare sector employed about 10% of total US workers last year, a share of the labor force that has remained consistent for the past decade.

This ongoing shortage comes as Americans worry about medical debt, the rising price of prescription drugs, and the staggering costs of emergency medical care. Per KFF (formerly known as Kaiser Family Foundation), three in four US adults say that healthcare is one of their top financial concerns.

Patients will still see labor shortages in ERs and care facilities

Despite labor gains, patients could still experience the impacts of the physician shortage. The US is expected to face a physician shortage of up to 86,000 people by 2036, according to the American Hospital Association.

The Bank of America report found that small businesses, defined as healthcare offices with fewer than 20 employees, are seeing the strongest rebound growth. For patients, this might result in more available appointments with specialists and private practice doctors.

Many small businesses hired more full-time healthcare workers instead of temporary contractors in February 2024 compared to February 2023, according to Bank of America.

Still, patients will likely still feel the consequences of labor gaps when they visit the hospitals and long-term care facilitates.

Longer ER stays, for example, are an indicator that hospitals are "understaffed or overcrowded," according to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.

There has also slower labor recovery at long-term care facilities. This could lead to longer patient waitlists for residential care.

A report published in March from the nonprofit Peterson Center on Healthcare and KFF shows that the number of people in skilled nursing jobs, retirement care jobs, and roles that provide care for people with developmental disabilities are still below pre-pandemic levels.

Burnout and low pay mean slow jobs recovery

The Bank of America report suggests that a lack of wage growth could be contributing to doctor and nurse shortages. Healthcare workers have labor-intensive jobs, and low pay could be making it more difficult for hospitals and care facilities to attract employees, the report found.

Average wages for healthcare workers have increased overall since the beginning of the pandemic, but KFF said this could be because fewer low-wage workers are employed in industry.

A 2023 National Institute of Health study found that inadequate pay is the most frequently cited reason employees give for burnout and leaving medicine.

Despite the slow gains, the Bank of America's report said it's a good sign that healthcare facilities appear to be hiring more full-time workers in 2024.

"Our finding that contract payments are easing indicates that firms may be under less pressure from labor shortages," the report said. "This could imply normalizing employment growth ahead."

Are you a healthcare worker experiencing burnout? Are you a patient who has experienced long wait times because of hospital staffing shortages? Reach out to this reporter at allisonkelly@insider.com.

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• Over 30 million "peak boomers" are entering retirement financially unprepared.
• The economy could take a hit, with industries like manufacturing and education needing to replace boomer workers.
• Those new retirees will likely be disproportionately leaning on Social Security to stay afloat.

The youngest baby boomers are about to enter retirement — and most of them aren't financially prepared for this next stage of their life.

Beginning this year, over 30 million boomers born from 1959 to 1964 will start to turn 65, marking the "largest and final cohort" of that generation entering retirement, according to a new report from the Alliance for Lifetime Income's Retirement Income Institute.

This cohort is known as "peak boomers," and per the report, most of them are on track for significant economic headwinds. It's what some have called the boomer retirement bomb — and it might be costly for the rest of the workers in the economy.

Through an analysis of data from the Federal Reserve and the University of Michigan Health and Retirement Study, the report found that 52.5% of peak boomers have $250,000 or less in assets, meaning that they'll likely deplete their savings and rely primarily on income from Social Security in retirement. Additionally, another 14.6% of that cohort have $500,000 or less in assets, meaning "nearly two-thirds will strain to meet their needs in retirement," the report said.

"America has never seen so many people reaching retirement age over a short period, and well over half of them will find it challenging to meet their needs through their retirements, let alone maintain their current standard of living," Robert Shapiro, an author of the report and the former Under Secretary of Commerce for Economic Affairs, said in a statement. "They lack the protected income that many older Boomers have from solid pensions or higher savings."

The peak boomers' retirement wave could also impact the overall US economy. The report projects that employers will have to replace as many as 14.8 million peak boomers — primarily in the manufacturing, healthcare, and education industries — which could decrease economic productivity.

On top of that, the generation's retirement is likely to have an impact on consumer spending. Using data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey, the report found that peak boomers will spend $204 billion less in 2032 than they did in 2022, with the transportation sector taking the biggest hit.

Still, as the report noted, younger employees are likely to fill some of the jobs that peak boomers will leave, and productivity will rise as technology advances.

The crisis is partially due to changes in how Americans save for retirement

Peak boomers entered the workforce just as retirement plans shifted away from defined benefit plans like pensions — which generally guarantee stable income and are employer-subsidized — to defined contribution plans like 401(k)s, which rely on workers to pay into them.

Per the report, out of the different types of retirement savings, defined benefit pensions have the least disparities along racial, gender, and ethnicity lines (although annual payments see big disparities) — but only 24% of peak boomers hold them, and even those plans are coming up against potential underfunding.

Already, many retirement-aged Americans are living on paltry incomes. A little over half of Americans over 65 live on incomes of $30,000 or under a year, per the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey, with the largest share living on $10,000 to $19,000. And, per Business Insider's calculations of CPS ASEC data, 79.2% of retirees receive some type of Social Security income.

Retirement-aged Americans, many of whom fall in that peak boomer category, previously told Business Insider that they might just have to continue working until they die — or become infirm — to stay afloat.

"Only the very wealthy are going to have any dignity in their old age," Pam, who is nearly 58, said. "And the rest of us are just going to pray that they can die while they still have a job because nobody wants to die on the street."

Are you a boomer unprepared for retirement? Contact these reporters at asheffey@businessinsider.com and jkaplan@businessinsider.com.

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• A Seattle basic income pilot gave low-income residents $500 a month, nearly doubling employment among participants.
• The majority of the selected participants were people of color.
• Basic income pilots nationwide have seen noteworthy success, despite conservative opposition.

A Seattle guaranteed basic income pilot gave low-income residents $500 a month to help reduce poverty. Employment in the group nearly doubled, and numerous unhoused residents secured housing.

The Workforce Development Council of Seattle-King County launched a 10-month guaranteed basic income pilot program with 102 participants in fall 2022. New findings by research firm Applied Inference reveal that the $5,000 total payments improved participants' quality of life, housing, and employment outcomes.

"These results showcase the power of community investment and the necessity of equitable solutions to address persistent barriers," said Marie Kurose, CEO of the WDC, in a statement. "The WDC will continue to use these insights to amplify our impact and drive transformative change in our region."

Though they have various characteristics and qualifications, guaranteed basic income programs offer direct cash payments to selected participants for a set amount of time. Some programs require participants to report what they use the monthly cash on, while others offer funds with no strings attached.

In the Seattle pilot program, public and private partners — such as King County, the Employment Security Department, and Chase Bank — provided funding to the participants, about 88% of whom were people of color. King County is a mostly white, wealthy county, according to Census data.

Employment among the participants almost doubled from 37% before the program to 66% post-pilot. Participants also reported getting higher-paying jobs with additional benefits. Participants' average incomes increased from $2,995 a month to $3,405.

The percentage of participants whose jobs provided a retirement plan nearly tripled, while life insurance doubled. Over a quarter of participants reported acquiring disability insurance in their new jobs, which none of them had in their previous jobs.

Participants also reported being more financially stable, meaning they could pay off bills and debts while building up more savings for the future. For instance, the percent of participants with savings increased from 24% to 35% — for families with children, this increased from 0% to 42%. The percentage of those able to consistently pay their bills doubled from 19% to 38%. The percentage of those behind on all debts stayed stagnant.

The payments contributed to less anxiety and fatigue and more freedom to travel and spend on non-essentials. Likely due to increased ability to seek treatment, some also reported reduced physical pain, allowing them to go about their days more easily and complete educational or professional goals.

Parents reported using the payments mainly for their children's needs, though many said they couldn't significantly strengthen their own financial position. Parents were less likely to have started short-term professional training compared to non-parents.

Many participants said they wanted the program to continue for a full year rather than 10 months, while others suggested higher monthly payments as high as $1,000.

The results are on trend with those of similar pilot programs nationwide, which have seen massive success. Participants in universal and guaranteed basic income programs have widely reported that the funds helped them pay off debts, as well as afford groceries, childcare, and housing.

Even so, conservative lawmakers nationwide have loudly advocated against the programs, claiming that they discourage work and cost taxpayers. However, many of the pilot programs are funded privately by philanthropy or by federal relief funds. Republicans in several state legislatures have pushed efforts to ban basic income programs in their states.

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• Israel's strike on Iran caused oil prices to spike, sparking fears of rising inflation.
• But US inflation is more impacted by strong domestic demand than by oil prices, an economist told Bloomberg TV.
• Job growth and rising retail sales point to a robust US economy, driving demand-based inflation.

The strike on Iran on Friday that US officials attributed to Israel sent oil prices jumping, stoking fears of broader inflation should the Middle East conflict escalate.

Oil prices gained as much as 4% following reports of the attack before later subsiding. But oil is less important for US inflation than robust domestic demand is, an economist said on Friday.

The US consumer price index, or CPI, rose at a higher-than-expected rate of 3.5% for the 12 months ending in March — which is still above the Fed's inflation goal of 2%.

"I think what's difficult for the Fed currently is actually the part of CPI that is being driven by demand, rather than the supply issues or the energy issues, which are perhaps easier to deal with," Samy Chaar, the chief economist of Lombard Odier, told Bloomberg TV. The Swiss private bank managed 193 billion Swiss francs, or $212.8 billion, in assets at the end of December.

A key inflation metric for the Fed, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, was little changed in March over its 2.8% reading in February. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell highlighted the index earlier this week as he signaled that interest rate cuts may come later, rather than sooner.

The US economy has been strong, with job growth and retail sales also rising more than expected for the month of March.

"The problem with the US is the sticky part that comes from services. Services is demand, and that demand needs to come from somewhere — and that's a robust economy," Chaar told Bloomberg. A gauge from the Institute for Supply Management showed the US service sector expanded moderately in March.

"Consumers are consuming because they have jobs, because they have rising incomes," Chaar said.

This means inflation is fueled by demand rather than oil supply, even if a rise in energy prices complicates the Fed's job, he said.

The Fed is now trying to engineer a soft landing for the hot US economy without causing it to tip into a recession.

"I would say the biggest challenge here for the Fed is to manage the demand of the US economy," Chaar said. "It comes from domestic America, not from the Middle East."

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• A historic flood brought the most rain in 75 years to the United Arab Emirates.
• Over 800 flights have been canceled at Dubai International Airport since Tuesday.
• Despite a stay-at-home warning, Emirates has reportedly encouraged cabin crew to report for duty.

Emirates flight attendants in Dubai were told to still report for duty while a flood left much of the city's airport underwater.

A memo sent to the airline's cabin crew was obtained by the "A Fly Guy's Cabin Crew Lounge," a Facebook page where aviation industry staff share gossip and stories.

It encouraged staff to make their way to the airport despite the government telling people to stay at home.

"We are operating our flights safely, and it's important our operations carry on for the sake of our customers," the email reportedly read.

It added: "If you are rostered for duty, please continue to make your way safely to work."

Aviation news site Paddle Your Own Kanoo first reported the memo as posted on Facebook.

Emirates did not respond to a request for comment from Business Insider.

Videos and pictures shared by the Facebook page, which has over one million followers, appear to show Emirates cabin crew struggling through the flood waters.

Other clips showed cabin crew covering themselves with plastic bags to protect their uniforms from the rain.

The media office for the Emirati government said the country witnessed the largest amount of rainfall in 75 years.

Schools in the United Arab Emirates were closed until the end of the week, while federal government employees were told to work remotely.

At Dubai International Airport, some planes tried to battle through the flood. Its terminals began to reopen early Thursday morning local time, although the airport said on X: "Flights continue to be delayed and disrupted."

54% of flights leaving Dubai International on Tuesday were canceled, according to data from FlightAware. More than 800 flights have been canceled over the past three days.

Do you work for an airline? Reach out to this reporter at psyme@businessinsider.com

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• Emma Sandke, 24, is a data analyst living in Boston. 
• She budgets every dollar she spends, including on non-essential, fun activities. 
• She says it's harder for people in their 20s now to afford fun, compared to older generations.

This as-told-to essay is based on a transcribed conversation with Emma Sandke, 24, from Boston, about how she's budgeting her finances in her 20s. The following has been edited for length and clarity.

In July 2023, I started my first job after graduation. I was lucky that my parents paid for the majority of my college tuition and rent. I knew that covering living expenses would be my responsibility once I started working.

I'm a data analyst at a large retail company. I've been making $80,000 a year pre-tax and recently got a raise to $87,200 — a salary I'm very happy with and feel privileged to receive.

When I first started making adult money, I didn't have a good grasp on what I was spending. I tended to impulse shop and then have buyer's remorse. Moving into my first apartment after graduation in September 2023 came with more costs, such as apartment fees and furniture. I looked back on the month and thought, "Where did all of my savings go?"

That's when I began to budget every dollar I spent. It's not necessarily that I'm spending less money, but I'm way more intentional about how I spend it.

Every generation has unique challenges. Covid-19 and the increased cost of living have impacted my generation. Activities like concerts and going to the movies have become luxuries in a way that I don't think they were for previous generations.

Older generations could support themselves — and sometimes even a family — and enjoy life simultaneously. But my generation has to choose between these things; having fun in your 20s is harder now. I want to own a home, travel more frequently, and build a strong retirement savings fund. But I also think I deserve to have fun in my 20s.

I keep track of my monthly expenses so I can afford to enjoy my 20s

I use a spreadsheet to keep track of my spending. My take-home salary is roughly $4,500 a month. I budget monthly rather than weekly because my weeks were too varied. At the end of each month, I spend around 30 minutes working out how much I will spend on specific things over the next month.

Boston is an expensive city to live in. If I lived elsewhere, my money would go much further — but I think it's a great place to spend your 20s. There are young people; it's super walkable and has great restaurants.

My rent and utility budget is $1,650. I share a three-bedroom apartment with two roommates, who also have similar budgeting habits.

I budget $400 a month for groceries and another $400 for food and drink — going out to bars and restaurants and ordering takeout. It depends on the month, but I typically spend this amount on both categories.

I set aside money to spend on enjoyable activities every month. In addition to eating out, I budget $50 a month for entertainment, like going to the cinema. My budget for each category can change. For example, if I plan on buying concert tickets, I'll up my entertainment budget. This month, I set aside $300 for shopping — things like buying books and thrifting.

My parents taught me about the importance of savings accounts. I contribute $800 a month to my Roth IRA. I aim to max it out every year while I'm under the income threshold for contributions.

I also have a high-yield savings account where I keep my emergency fund of money I made while working during college. Additionally, I have a 401(k) and Health Savings Account, but those payments are made pre-tax.

I'm 'loud budgeting' in 2024

In December 2023, I came across "loud budgeting" on TikTok. The concept refers to being comfortable and open about saving money.

For example, if your friend said, "Do you want to get dinner tonight?" you could respond with, "I don't have that in my budget right now." My friends and I are all very honest with each other when bowing out of something because of the cost.

The phrase gave a name to what I felt I was already doing — trying to limit spending and sharing my budget on my TikTok account. In January, I posted my own videos about how I'd be loud budgeting in 2024.

I wouldn't call myself frugal. I want to enjoy my 20s. That means being intentional about purchases and building fun into my budget rather than cutting it out.

My savings also go toward fun things I'm looking forward to in the near future. I have a few upcoming trips this year and keep a travel fund in my high-yield savings account.

Budgeting is a way to have fun and be responsible

There's a misconception that budgeting is only for people paying off debt or living paycheck to paycheck. For me, budgeting is about having guidelines to ensure I'm living within my means and hitting my savings goals.

I'm lucky to be in a situation where money doesn't have to control my life. I'd love to own a home someday, but I don't have home-ownership tunnel vision. There are certain things I don't want to sacrifice right now — like traveling and going out to eat. I want to look back on my 20s and feel I was responsible with my money and had fun.

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• Taylor Swift's new album "The Tortured Poets Department" is almost guaranteed to be a bestseller. 
• But no matter how well it does, it won't be the way Swift earns most of her money this year.
• In fact, the remaining leg of her Eras tour will add much more to Swift's billion-dollar fortune.

Taylor Swift released her new album "The Tortured Poets Department" at midnight, and, in what should be no surprise to anyone on this planet in the year 2024, it caused a scene.

Her songs were set to garner millions of streams from the moment it dropped, accompanied — no doubt — by a LOT of social media takes. Like the 13 Swift albums before it, there is also almost no doubt it will top the Billboard chart.

But no matter how many platinum certifications it collects or streams it racks up on Spotify, "The Tortured Poets Department" won't be Swift's biggest money-maker this year.

The remaining leg of her Eras tour — set to kick off in Paris next month and run through December — will instead be what contributes most to her fortune, which Bloomberg estimated last year at $1.1 billion.

"Live music is the engine of the global music business," Clayton Durant, the founder of CAD Management and an adjunct professor at NYU Steinhardt's Music Business Program, told Business Insider. "Her tour is probably going to earn 10 to 15 times more than her streaming."

Swift's Eras Tour brought in more than $1 billion in ticket sales last year over its 66 dates. By the end of this year, she will have played another 86. Swift's cut is unknown, but based on industry standards, she will surely earn nine figures in 2024 from ticket sales.

Concerts don't only bring in money from ticket sales.

Pollstar estimates that Swifties spend an average of $40 per head at her concert on merch —  that adds up to about $175 million in gross merch sales last year. Swift's camp keeps the majority of that.

Bloomberg estimated that between box office and merchandise, Swift pocketed $225 million, pre-tax, from her first 57 Eras tour dates. Career earnings from ticket sales and merchandise account for 34% of her total net worth, while earnings from music streaming and sales account for 18%, Bloomberg estimates.

Swift isn't alone in making money on the road.

In 2021, the last year Billboard made a list of music's top earners, seven out of the 10 top money makers earned more than half of their income from touring.

But the music industry didn't always function this way. Before the advent of streaming, musicians made most of their fortune selling CDs, cassette tapes, and vinyl records.

"Physical music sales made up the bulk of artists' revenue pre-streaming, and that revenue was what enabled artists to tour. These days, the equation has flipped," Tatiana Cirisano, senior music industry analyst at MIDiA, told BI over email.

Streaming made listening to recorded music much cheaper. For less than the price of one CD — or for free, illegally, or with ads — people could get all the songs they wanted.

"The moment Napster hit, it changed the paradigm, and it really honestly diluted the value of music," Durant said.

To be sure, Swift is still making tens of millions, if not more, on streaming and record sales each year — more than almost any other artist on the planet.

Streaming services like Spotify pay out artists on a pro-rata model: There is a pot, made up of subscription and ad revenue, paid out to artists each year. Those with the biggest share of the platform's total streams get the biggest piece of it.

But "if you're an individual artist, you have to have a pretty massive audience to be able to earn a meaningful share of that revenue — which is paid out to you after your label gets its cut," Cirisano said.

Last year, Swift was the most-streamed artist on both Apple and Spotify. One of every 78 songs streamed in the US last year was a Swift song, according to music data firm Luminate. She will likely rank at or near the top again, between "The Tortured Poets Department" and a streaming lift from the second leg of her Eras tour.

Swift will also earn more than most artists from physical music sales. Last year, she was responsible for one out of every 15 vinyl records sold, according to Luminate. Her rabid followers see physical records as "a symbol of fandom," Cirisano said, and a way to support Swift.

That said, without Eras, Swift would just be a poor centimillionaire.

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• Mukul Lalchandani, a real estate agent, discusses the impact of new commission rules.
• The new rules mean that sellers no longer have to pay the buyer's agent commission.
• These changes may most affect low-income buyers, but Lalchandani says his clients won't be affected.

This as-told-to essay is based on a conversation with Mukul Lalchandani, a 44-year-old real-estate agent from New York. It's been edited for length and clarity.

My parents wanted to buy a house in the US before immigrating here from Hong Kong, but they didn't know how real estate worked in this country.

They were working with the seller's broker and didn't realize they could work with a buyer's broker who would help them find the best deal. The seller's broker deceived them. They ended up spending a lot of money and had no house to move into when they arrived in the US. I decided to become a real-estate agent so I could prevent other immigrant families from going through the same situation.

I've lived in New York for 23 years and have been a real-estate agent for over 15 years. I established my own agency, Undivided, in 2023.

Most realtors in NY are not under the National Association of Realtors like the rest of the country. We have our own association called REBNY. The NAR and real-estate agents all around the country are preparing for new rules to pass.

One of the rules is that the seller no longer has to pay a commission to the buyer's agent. REBNY already implemented these rules starting January 1; the new rules were a shock for all of us. While the rest of the country is preparing for the rule changes, we're already seeing the results.

My agency has had to implement new policies to address the changes brought on by these rules.

Here's what the new commission rules mean

There is a lot of confusion around the commission rule and what it means, especially for buyers. The rules were made as part of a settlement for a nationwide lawsuit. When someone sells a property, they must pay their broker and the buyer's broker a commission. It's not fair to the seller.

The new rules will mean that the buyer will have to either pay for their own broker or not use a broker at all.

I've implemented two major policies in my agency to help with the confusion

First, I make sure to sit down with each buyer and explain to them how the new rules affect them. At first, my clients are confused. Then, when it clicks, they're shocked. They realize they have to pay for the broker themselves. They have an extra cost for buying the property which they didn't consider before.

My agency has also begun requiring all new buyers to sign an "exclusive buyers agreement." In this agreement, we outline everything we will do to help the buyer through the buying process in their best interest. It also states how much they'll pay us for our services. This contract helps clarify the terms and payment and prevents any confusion related to the new rules.

We have to implement this contract and charge our clients a fee because we no longer get a commission from the seller.

All buyers are shocked, but this will affect low-income buyers the most

My agency is a boutique agency in NY, and my clients tend to be high-networth individuals. The buyers who come to me are shocked when they learn about the new fees but can afford them.

Real-estate investors want a broker to find the best property for them, so they'll also be willing to pay the commission fees. Buying in NY is especially complicated, so buyers really need a broker. The new commission rule will not hurt people looking to buy expensive homes or investment properties. It will hurt the lower-income buyers the most.

Buying a property without a broker is possible, but the buyer is taking a risk. Higher-income buyers such as foreigners and out-of-towners who buy real estate in NY will avoid the risk and pay the broker fees to make sure they get a good deal. However, lower-income buyers around the country may not be able to afford a broker anymore. That means they'll be more vulnerable to getting into a bad real-estate deal.

For example, if someone is buying a million-dollar home, they would need about $15,000 to pay the broker now. That can't come out of pocket for most buyers.

Many Brokers will leave the industry, and some jobs will disappear

This also means that many brokers who sell only a couple of properties a year will leave the industry. Only brokers who work in real estate as their main source of income will be able to survive the new rules. Buyers will only pay for the brokers who have the most experience and get the best deals. In the future, we could also see bonuses for the buyer's brokers in a slow market that may not be offered in a hot market.

We might even see the job of a buyer's broker disappear in a few years. There used to be tenant agents who helped people find places to rent. That job disappeared when people looking to rent began talking directly with companies that own the properties. This could happen to the buyer's agent too.

If you're confused about the new rules, it's because they're confusing. Sellers were not happy with the previous rules where they had to represent the buyer's best interest by paying a commission to the buyer's broker. They'll no longer have to do that.

The new rules will have big ramifications as buyers start experiencing the changing real estate market.

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• John Vincent, an automotive editor, bought a 2023 Jeep Grand Cherokee 4xe plug-in hybrid in 2022.
• He loves the SUV's versatility as both an electric car for short trips and a gas car for long drives.
• Despite some sound complaints, he's happy with his hybrid and wouldn't buy an EV just yet.

This as-told-to essay is based on a conversation with John Vincent, a 58-year-old automotive editor in Portland, Oregon. It has been edited for length and clarity.

My wife and I bought a 2023 Jeep Grand Cherokee 4xe plug-in hybrid in December 2022 for $75,000. As an automotive journalist and the senior editor of vehicle testing at US News and World Report, I test-drive dozens of vehicles every year. I still love the choice we made to purchase this full-size hybrid SUV.

When I was first shopping around, I was looking at the Kia Sorento hybrid, the Hyundai Santa Fe, the Mercedes GLC, and quite a few others.

This Jeep made the most sense for us because it's basically an electric car for short trips and a gas car for long trips. It's really inexpensive to operate, drives fantastic, and is very capable. It just does everything we were looking for.

The plug-in hybrid Jeep Grand Cherokee 4xe

While shopping, I considered the tax credits that were available at the time. There was a full $7,500 credit, and it made a lot of sense because of how we use the vehicle. The credit is not available anymore, but you can get some state, local, and utility credits for operating it.

My wife drives the car about half the time and can drive it to work and back daily on electricity alone. I think I only put four gas tanks in it last year — and the only reason I had to put gas in it was to protect the engine and the fuel delivery system.

We also have a Honda Odyssey, which is better for our dog. The Jeep is pretty high, and the dog weighs 50 pounds, so lifting the dog up and down in the SUV is difficult. With the minivan, the dog can just hop up inside.

I drive a high-trim model, the Summit, so it is basically a luxury SUV. The luxury model package, which costs around $13,000 more than the base model, has massaging seats and a great navigation system, as well as night vision for when we're on rural country roads, so it's pretty well-loaded. The only thing I wish it had that it doesn't is a lower price tag.

This Jeep can off-road, but I haven't done it yet. The number of miles we put on it is limited because I test other cars, but most of the miles I put on this Jeep are electric.

Driving electric with the hybrid

When we drive outside commuting and exceed its electric-only range, it operates like a normal hybrid and still gets great mileage, but we don't have to be reliant on an EV charger all the time, like with a pure EV.

The Grand Cherokee is a great vehicle, but with gas-only power the mileage is terrible, so the 4xe gets good mileage for a midsize SUV because it's a hybrid.

In a perfect world, you never notice the transitions between running on gas, running as a hybrid, or running as electric. In reality, you do feel those transitions in the Jeep more than you do in some other vehicles, but it's not obtrusive, and I learned to deal with it.

The biggest thing I've noticed is when it switches over to electric, it gets silent. All you hear is tire noise, which is just kind of weird to be gliding along silently.

Jeep and the EV market

People buy Jeeps not just because they want to go off-road, but because they want to know they can go off-road. People who buy EVs want to know they can go 300 miles between charges — not because they typically do, but because they want to have the option.

The public charging infrastructure is not quite ready to support that option for everyone. It's good enough in some parts of the country like California, Washington, and Oregon, where I live, but I would say in 40 of the 50 states, EV infrastructure is not good enough for me to buy one — yet.

We don't rely on it, though, because when the electric charge runs out, the Jeep switches over and acts like a normal hybrid. We never have and never would charge it at a public station.

I'm happy with my hybrid for now.

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• Ukraine is on the ropes amid a $60 billion US aid block. 
• Its leaders are issuing increasingly stark warnings that it faces defeat. 
• Defeat could take many forms, including the loss of key territories. 

With a $60 billion US aid bill blocked, Ukraine's battle against the Russian invasion is becoming increasingly desperate.

Its military is running critically short of artillery and ammunition, and it is being outgunned 10 to one is some places as it struggles to hold off intensifying Russian attacks.

There is a glimmer of hope for Ukraine, with a congressional vote that could release the aid package expected this weekend.

But if it fails, and Ukraine's European allies don't step up, Ukraine's defeat looks increasingly likely and could take a number of forms, say analysts.

Total defeat

Experts at US think tank The Institute for the Study of War, believe that Russia's President Vladimir Putin is pursuing "maximalist" objectives in Ukraine that amount to a "full Ukrainian and Western capitulation."

This might entail eventually seeking to seize control of the whole of the country.

Putin has repeatedly denied Ukraine's existence in speeches. Last year, he cited a 17th-century map of Europe to back his discredited thesis that Ukraine isn't a real country, despite the document clearly marking part of the territory as being "Ukraine."

In a blog post for the Royal United Services Institute, Oleksandr Danylyuk, a former chief advisor to Ukraine's Minister of Defense, noted that total destruction of Ukraine is Russia's main goal.

"Putin does not hide his genocidal intentions to destroy Ukraine as an independent state and Ukrainians as a separate people," he said.

"It is obvious that if Ukraine loses support from the West, Putin may well achieve his goal of destroying Ukrainians as a people and erasing the largest country from the map of Europe," he continued.

"Despite the obvious tragedy of this situation for Ukraine, the consequences of its defeat for the West and especially for the US as the leader of the free world would be no less catastrophic."

The loss of territories

Others believe that Russia's ambitions are more limited, and it has its sights set on launching a massive attack this summer to break through Ukraine's defensive lines and seize a key city or region.

A problem for Ukraine, Bryden Spurling, an analyst at the RAND Corporation, told Business Insider, is that it's unclear where the attack could come from.

"The difficulty with Ukraine being short of supplies and personnel is that it gives Russia more of an opportunity to pick the time and place of its offensive along a long battlefront," he said.

While it was apparent that Ukraine would focus its counteroffensive last year in the south, allowing Russia to build extensive fortifications to defend its positions, Russia's attack could come at any point along the 620-mile-long front line.

Russia could seek to seize control of Kharkiv, Ukraine's second biggest city, which is only around 18 miles from the Russian border, the city of Zaporizhzhia in south Ukraine, or secure control of the Donetsk region in east Ukraine, which has been the site of some of the war's bloodiest battles.

George Beebe, a former director of Russian analysis at the CIA, recently told BI that Russia was seeking to add to and consolidate its territorial gains.

"Russian 'victory' over Ukraine would probably consist of seizing territory east of the Dnieper River that Moscow regards as culturally and historically Russian, creating a strip of 'no man's land' separating Russian-controlled territory from the rest of Ukraine, and building extensively defensive fortifications to ensure that the division of Ukraine will be difficult to reverse through new Ukrainian assaults," he said.

But the question of when and on what terms negotiations to end the war might take place remains unclear.

Spurling, the RAND analyst, said that a Russian victory would most likely take the form of Ukraine ceding large amounts of conquered territory to Russia. But there is no sign that Ukraine would agree to such a deal.

"Despite the challenges they are currently facing, Ukraine shows little appetite for such a settlement – and many of Ukraine's supporters acknowledge that Russia can't be trusted to keep its side of any settlement anyway," he said.

A campaign against NATO

Some analysts, such as those at the ISW, have warned that Russia would likely use a settlement with a weakened and defeated Ukraine to rebuild and launch a renewed attack on Ukraine and then its allies in the West.

Other analysts are skeptical and believe that Russia's military has suffered such damage in the conflict that it would be in no position to launch a massive new campaign after the war against a strengthened NATO alliance.

But for Beebe, even if US aid is released, there won't be enough of it to turn the tide in the war and enable Ukraine to drive Russian forces out.

This implies that Ukraine, in any scenario, will have to cede territory, either formally or informally.

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