Author: openjargon

• The bird flu, or avian influenza, is increasingly worrying public-health experts.
• The H5N1 bird flu virus is changing, creeping closer to humans, and getting more opportunities to adapt.
• A bird flu pandemic isn't inevitable, but it is possible. Here's why you should know what's going on.

Bird flu is flying wild, and it has many infectious disease experts more worried now than ever.

The H5N1 avian influenza virus has killed tens of millions of birds across the planet and more than 40,000 sea lions and seals. For animals, it's a pandemic.

Still, the CDC says the risk to humans is low. Most people seem to have very little chance, if any, of catching H5N1 avian influenza right now.

Only three people in the US have tested positive for the virus since its surprising break into the cattle population, and they all had direct contact with infected cows.

But infectious disease experts are increasingly concerned that the H5N1 virus could make a sustained jump into humans and start spreading among us. That's not inevitable, but several recent developments suggest it's a growing threat.

"There's a lot going on," Dr. Monica Gandhi, a professor of medicine and associate chief of the Division of HIV, Infectious Diseases, and Global Medicine at the University of California, San Francisco, told Business Insider. "I'm becoming more worried."

You shouldn't panic, but you should probably know what's going on. This virus is a leading candidate for the next pandemic, and four developments in the past month have experts worried.

Here's what you need to know.

Bird flu hospitalized a child in Australia

On Friday the World Health Organization announced that a 2-year-old had become Australia's first human case of H5N1 in March.

After returning from travel to Kolkata, India, the child's symptoms — loss of appetite, fever, coughing, vomiting, and irritability, according to WHO — put them in the hospital for two and a half weeks, including admission to the intensive care unit.

As human cases crop up in different parts of the world, epidemiologists like Christopher Dye become more concerned.

"There's such a vast amount of virus at the moment. And clearly it is changing, and it's doing new and unexpected things," Dye, a professor and senior research fellow at the University of Oxford, told BI.

He recently co-authored a paper, published in the medical journal BMJ, arguing that the risk of a major human outbreak is "large, plausible, and imminent."

"Influenza has always been a concern for decades and decades, and this particular form of influenza for at least two decades," Dye said. "But now, it's risen to a level of concern, I think, which is greater than ever before."

Mice could bring bird flu into homes

A total of 47 house mice have tested positive for H5N1 in New Mexico, the US Department of Agriculture reported on Tuesday.

"Mice are kind of everywhere," Gandhi said. "They're around other animals, they're around humans a lot. And it's a little worrisome."

The samples were collected from the sick mice in early May. According to The Telegraph, scientists suspect that the mice, as well as some domestic cats, may have gotten the virus from drinking raw milk from infected cows. (Public health experts resoundingly advise that people should not drink unpasteurized, aka "raw," milk.)

"This brings the virus closer to human homes," Rick Bright, former director of the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, told The Telegraph. "This is out of control," he added.

Every new population of animals, and every new exposure to humans, is another opportunity for the virus to mutate and adapt.

One mutation suggests the virus has started adapting

When the CDC analyzed a virus sample from the second US farmworker infected, they spotted a mutation in the virus's replication machinery — the way it gets inside its host's cells to make copies of itself.

It's a change "associated with viral adaptation to mammalian hosts," the CDC said in a statement in May. The statement also said that studies in mice indicate this type of genetic mutation in the virus is associated with more severe disease and enhanced viral replication.

That doesn't make it a human virus yet, though.

Other than this one change, H5N1 has mainly "avian virus properties and not human virus properties," Richard Webby, a virologist at St. Jude and director of the WHO Collaborating Centre for Studies on the Ecology of Influenza in Animals and Birds, told BI.

That means the virus is better adapted to thrive and spread among birds, not humans.

Still, that could change.

The latest US case had a troubling cough

The first two farmworkers to test positive for H5N1 in the US had pink eye. But the third case, reported in Michigan in May, featured a cough and sore throat.

That means H5N1 was in that worker's respiratory system, which is a scarier place to find a threatening virus than in our eyes.

For one thing, it's easier to spread a virus by coughing or sneezing than by, well, sharing eye fluid.

The good news is that, as far as scientists can tell, H5N1 is still not adapted to humans enough to transmit between us. The CDC has reported no evidence that the coughing farmworker spread the virus to anyone else.

But that doesn't mean H5N1 can't mutate to achieve human-to-human transmission — which brings us to the second unfortunate reality of this farmworker's respiratory infection.

Compared to the eyes, human lungs are a more convenient place for an avian virus to get more mammalian, according to Webby. In the lungs, the virus is exposed to more of the cell receptors that a mammalian virus would bind to, giving H5N1 more opportunity to mutate and start grabbing onto those receptors — thereby becoming better adapted to infecting and spreading between humans.

Many experts fear the USDA and CDC aren't monitoring cattle and farmworkers closely enough to catch concerning mutations early, and that other human cases may be going undetected.

"I think there's enough of a threat here to be very alert so that we have a surveillance system in place that, as soon as this happens, we can find it," Dye said.

Vaccines are in the works

The good news is that bird flu is not COVID-19. Scientists have been tracking this virus and its entire viral family tree, watching for any sign of a growing threat to humans, for decades.

As a result, the key elements of a vaccine are already on standby. The US is beginning to manufacture millions of vaccines using "candidate vaccine viruses" — weakened influenza viruses — that the CDC has developed.

Though the candidates are not necessarily perfect matches to H5N1, and the vaccines' use of eggs may be a manufacturing roadblock if bird flu is sweeping the chicken population, they may provide some immunity in the case of a human outbreak.

Furthermore, scientists now have proven mRNA vaccine technology at the ready. Vaccines that use mRNA, of which the COVID-19 vaccines were the first approved for use, are more flexible and faster to develop than traditional vaccines — and they don't require eggs.

Researchers at the University of Pennsylvania have already developed an experimental mRNA vaccine for H5N1, which they've successfully tested in mice and ferrets.

If H5N1 becomes a problem in humans, a vaccine could be offered with the flu shot you get later this year.

In the meantime, bird flu is a looming threat to keep an eye on.

"As far as I can see, this is not going to go away anytime soon," Dye said.

• Immigration is one of the thorniest public policy issues and one that will define the 2024 election.
• Biden has had to pivot on some of his border policies after running against Trump's efforts in 2020.
• Meanwhile, Trump is seeking to run heavily on immigration this year, similar to his 2016 campaign.

Very few issues animate Americans more than immigration.

And under the presidencies of both Donald Trump and Joe Biden, divisions over the issue have only sharpened further.

Trump's 2016 presidential campaign was defined by his hard-line views on immigration: arguing for a wall at the US-Mexico border and insisting that Mexico pay for said barrier, pushing for the deportations of millions of undocumented immigrants, and calling for a temporary ban on Muslims entering the country.

Once in office, Trump sought to execute his broad vision. His administration constructed 455 miles of fencing along the southern border, but much of the wall simply replaced anti-vehicle barriers with taller steel bars. And despite Trump's rhetoric on ramping up deportations, the number of individuals who were removed from the US declined from October 2018 to September 2019.

Biden in the 2020 election strongly denounced Trump's immigration policies, voicing his opposition to a border wall, blasting the GOP administration's family separation policy, and promising a more humane approach toward migrants at the southern border.

But since Biden took office, an explosion in border apprehensions — along with scores of migrants arriving in Democratic-led cities like Chicago and New York — has became a political liability, with voters giving him low marks on the issue.

Here's a look at Biden and Trump's positions on immigration, one of the defining issues of the November election:

Where Joe Biden stands on immigration

Immigration has been one of the trickiest policy areas for Biden, as he came into office seeking to reverse many Trump-era policies but has instead often found himself on the defensive on the issue.

Republicans across the country have routinely excoriated Biden over border security since taking office, pointing their fingers at him over record levels of apprehensions at the border. In February, the GOP-controlled House of Representatives impeached Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, contending that he had not enforced the country's immigration laws. (The Democratic-led Senate subsequently squashed the impeachment charges against Mayorkas.)

Texas GOP Gov. Greg Abbott over the past two years has pushed back against what he said is Biden's lack of border security by sending hundreds of thousands of migrants to Chicago and New York. And it's created a difficult situation for Democratic officials like New York City Mayor Eric Adams, who has had to tackle budgetary challenges in housing migrants.

Biden this year pushed for the passage of a Senate-crafted bipartisan bill, which would have overhauled the US asylum system, among other measures intended to strengthen security at the border. The bill seemingly put the president on the offensive on the issue, as he challenged congressional Republicans to back to proposal to get a handle on immigration.

But Senate Republicans overwhelmingly voted against the bill after Trump pressed them to tank it.

Biden last week signed an executive order that restricts asylum protections — to the frustration of immigration advocates — for migrants if there are more than 2,500 unauthorized daily border crossings over a seven-day average.

Where Donald Trump stands on immigration

Trump has staked much of his 2024 campaign on Biden's vulnerabilities on immigration among voters.

In a New York Times/Siena College poll conducted in April, 50% of registered voters approved of Trump's handling of the issue while he was in office. Meanwhile, only 32% of registered voters approved of Biden's handling of immigration.

The former president was instrumental in tanking this year's bipartisan immigration bill, blasting it as a "horrible open borders betrayal" during a January rally in Las Vegas.

Trump has made it clear that he intends to crack down on illegal immigration should he retake the White House.

The former president's conservative allies have already begun drafting executive orders and memos in preparation for potential early actions to restrict migration at the US-Mexico border, according to The Wall Street Journal.

During Trump's sole term in the White House, he also made it more difficult for foreign-born workers — which included many highly-skilled scientists and engineers — to come to the US on visas. A second Trump administration could very well see a return to such policies.

AirPod competitors are pouring into the wireless earbud industry, challenging Apple’s seat on the throne. We tried out cheaper AirPod dupes to see how they stack up against the real thing.

The Kentucky Derby is the biggest horse race in America, and preparing for it takes millions of dollars and thousands of people. We went to Churchill Downs days before the big race to see what it takes to train the winning horse and prepare the century-old track for 400,000 fans.

• The US lifted a ban on Azov Brigade, allowing it to receive American weapon shipments.
• The Azov Brigade, part of Ukraine's National Guard, has faced scrutiny for its past far-right ties.
• The State Department found no evidence of human rights violations after vetting the brigade.

The US State Department announced Monday that it has lifted a ban on the Azov Brigade, a former Ukrainian militia group with an ultranationalist history, allowing the current National Guard unit to receive American weapon shipments and training.

A State Department spokesperson told BBC on Tuesday that following a vetting of the brigade, there was "no evidence of gross violations of human rights."

The group was established in 2014 as the Azov Battalion by a figure linked to far-right hate groups in Ukraine. The unit's members' alleged far-right ties led the US to bar the group from receiving assistance.

Now known as the Azov Brigade, the unit became part of the Ukrainian National Guard in 2015. The unit sought to distance itself from its checkered past, yet it has also been banned from receiving US assistance for years, since the passing of a 2018 congressional spending bill.

The State Department has dismissed the congressional ban and said the Azov Brigade "passed Leahy vetting," referring to Leahy Law, which prevents the US from supporting foreign entities that have committed major human rights violations.

"Understanding by our allies how important it is to help each of these units is another important step on the way of our struggle for independence," Ukrainian National Guard spokesperson Ruslan Muzychuk told The Washington Post following the State Department announcement.

The Kremlin has used the Azov Brigade as a talking point in justifying Russia's invasion of Ukraine, as President Vladimir Putin has previously stated that his objectives of the war include the "demilitarization and de-Nazification of Ukraine."

The Azov Brigade has claimed that it has evolved from its problematic past and that its leadership has changed since its inception.

In a response to the decision on Instagram, the unit wrote that "obtaining Western weapons and training from the United States will not only increase the combat ability of Azov, but most importantly, contribute to the preservation of the lives and the health of personnel."

"This is a new page in our unit's history," the brigade said, adding that "Azov is becoming even more powerful, even more professional and even more dangerous for occupiers."

The brigade is closely associated with its significant, albeit costly, defense of Mariupol in 2022 at the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, where it was eventually forced to surrender its fight from the Azovstal steel mill. The unit's soldiers have been celebrated as heroes and symbol of Ukrainian resistance.

Clarence Thomas took in his grandnephew and raised him like a son. Mark Martin now faces more than 25 years on drug and weapons charges. The Thomas' guardianship is part of the scandal surrounding the Supreme Court justice's failure to disclose gifts from billionaire Harlan Crow.

• The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady in its latest decision on Wednesday.
• Its Summary of Economic Projections also penciled in just one interest rate cut for 2024.
• Still, Powell cautioned that could change and left the door open for a rate cut in September.

The odds of an interest rate cut this year just got slimmer.

On June 12, the Federal Open Market Committee announced that it would hold interest rates steady as the nation's central bank continues to work to lower inflation to its 2% target.

Notably, alongside the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, the FOMC also released its Summary of Economic Projections — and the committee now has just one interest rate cut penciled in for 2024, with further cuts expected in 2025.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said during the Wednesday press conference that when looking at the FOMC's projections, they should be viewed as just that: projections. There's still time for them to change based on upcoming economic data, he said, and it's "plausible" that a rate cut could happen as soon as September.

"We want to gain further confidence. Certainly, more good inflation readings will help with that," Powell said.

"It's going to be the totality of the data, what's happening in the labor market, what's happening with the balance of risks, what's happening with the forecast, what's happening with growth," he added. "You look at all of that, and you ask, 'Are we confident? Have we reached an appropriate level of confidence that inflation is moving down sustainably to 2%, or alternatively, do we see really unexpected signs of weakness in the labor market?'"

The Consumer Price Index, which measures inflation, rose 3.3% year over year in May, a slight decrease from April's 3.4% reading, showing the economy is headed in the right direction. While Powell said the latest reading is a positive sign, it's not sufficient to allow the Fed to loosen its restrictive monetary policy.

However, some Democratic lawmakers have urged Powell to cut rates sooner rather than later, given the financial strains Americans continue to face under high inflation. Powell acknowledged those pains but reiterated that it's most important for the Fed to hold off on cutting until it gets more data rather than cutting too soon and having to raise rates again at a later date.

"In the meantime, it's going to be painful for people, but the ultimate pain would be a long period of high inflation," Powell said. "It is people who have lower incomes, people at the margins of the economy who have the worst experience, who experience the most pain from inflation. So you know, it's for those people, for all Americans, but particularly for those people, that we're doing everything we can to bring inflation back down under control."