Author: openjargon

S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) shares are down 0.7%, and the bank shares are underperforming on Tuesday.

At the time of writing, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) share price is $162.99, down 1% today.

The National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) share price is $37.54, down 1.9%.  

ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) shares are $35.37 apiece, down 1.1%.

Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) shares are also 1.1% lower at $36.38.

Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) shares are down 1.5% at $233.95.

Today, the world is waiting for further news on an impending US-Iran deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil prices have dropped significantly in anticipation of the key shipping channel reopening after nearly three months of effective closure.

The Brent Crude oil price is currently US$97.72 per barrel, down 12% in a week.

Regardless of when the war ends, economists say the full economic effect of the oil shock is yet to play out.

The question is not whether the impact will be bad, but rather, how bad.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported today that 72% of Australian businesses are under pressure due to higher fuel costs.

Higher petrol and diesel prices, along with three interest rate rises this year, have contributed to a multi-year low in consumer sentiment.

Rates have gone up due to resurgent inflation. That started before the war began, and it’s now been exacerbated by higher fuel prices.

We’ve also just seen the first sign of a weakening jobs market. Unemployment rose to 4.5% in April amid 18,600 job losses.

On top of all that, proposed changes to capital gains tax (CGT) are worrying businesses and investors in shares and property.

Top broker predicts impact of CGT tax changes

In a new note, analysts from top broker Morgan Stanley said softer mortgage growth and margin headwinds stemming from the proposed CGT changes could result in FY27 earnings downgrades of about 5% for the major ASX 200 bank shares.

This is because the banks are highly exposed to the residential housing market, which is already weakening due to higher interest rates.

The analysts said a deterioration in housing market sentiment would raise the probability of lower valuation multiples for bank stocks.

Concern about the impact of CGT changes was partly behind a 10% daily drop for CBA shares earlier this month.

That was the biggest one-day fall for CBA shares ever.

It followed the bank’s 3Q FY26 update, which was released the morning after the Federal Budget.

CBA reported an unaudited cash net profit after tax (NPAT) of $2.7 billion, down 1% on the quarterly average for 1H FY26.

Investors also noticed the $200 million increase to bad debt provisions, which CBA attributed to higher geopolitical and economic risks.

Will ASX 200 bank shares fall?

ASX 200 bank share price movements are often seen as a barometer of investor confidence in the economy.

And right now, the economy isn’t looking great.

Consumer confidence is near pandemic lows; higher inflation and interest rates are expected; we have entrenched low productivity growth; the first signal of a weakening jobs market; and the impending long-tail impact of the global oil shock and changes to CGT tax on top.

Additionally, when any ASX stock trades on a stretched valuation, it’s natural to assume that mean reversion will occur at some point.

ASX 200 bank shares have been on the up since November 2023. The big five have all reset their record highs over the past year.

The following chart showing percentage changes in ASX 200 bank share prices since November 2023 paints a picture.

Portfolio manager Suhas Nayak from contrarian fund manager Allan Gray says the major ASX 200 banks are trading at rich levels today.

Four of the major five are trading on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18 times to 19 times, compared to the historical average of 12 times.

And CBA shares are out on their own at 26.7 times.

Nayak told The Australian that this presents a risk for share prices:

It just exposes you to valuation risks across those particular companies that have done particularly well.

What about bank dividends?

An additional factor that may increasingly weigh on ASX 200 bank shares is their declining dividend yields.

As ASX 200 bank share prices have stormed higher, earnings have not kept pace, so dividend yields have reduced.

This makes ASX 200 bank shares less attractive to investors focused on passive income. (Find out current bank dividend yields here).

Nayak said:

The total returns from here look not as appealing as many other parts of the market.

Morgan Stanley has a sell rating on CBA, Westpac, and NAB shares today.

The broker gives a buy rating to ANZ and Macquarie shares.

The post Morgan Stanley tips 5% earnings downgrades for ASX 200 bank shares. Here’s why appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Flight Centre Travel Group Ltd (ASX: FLT), Goodman Group (ASX: GMG) and Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN) shares are turning heads today.

But not for their outperformance.

During the Tuesday lunch hour, only one of the three big-name ASX stocks is edging above the 0.5% losses posted by the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO), with the other two taking a steeper tumble.

Here’s what’s grabbing investor interest.

Mineral Resources shares growing their lithium footprint

In earlier trade, shares in the ASX 200 lithium miner and diversified resources producer were up as much as 2% at $72.94 apiece, marking a two-year high.

But, potentially impacted by intraday concerns over renewed conflict in the Middle East, Mineral Resources shares are down 0.2% at the time of writing, trading for $71.39 apiece.

The mining giant is creating a buzz today after announcing that, together with JV partner Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium, it has made the final investment decision (FID) to build a flotation plant at its Mt Marion lithium project, located in Western Australia. The FID also greenlights the development of underground mining at the project.

The JV partners will spend around $490 million on the combined works across FY 2027 and FY 2028.

Commenting on the decision that’s intended to support Mineral Resource shares over the longer term, managing director Chris Ellison said:

This high-return brownfield investment sets up Mt Marion for decades to come. Underground mining and flotation will work together to access deeper high-grade ore, lift recoveries and produce a single 5% product.

Flight Centre shares sink on Middle East travel impacts

Flight Centre shares are down 3.6% at the time of writing, changing hands for $9.91 each.

This follows a trading update from the ASX 200 travel stock, delivered during its annual Investor Day.

Investors look to favouring their sell buttons after Flight Centre noted that after a strong first three quarters of FY 2026, its fourth quarter performance has been “heavily impacted by Middle East tensions”.

Flight Centre expects to record a $10 million reduction in its expected April profits amid rising refunds and other headwinds from the ongoing Iran war.

The company’s leisure business has been hardest hit, with Flight Centre warning that May and June may take an even steeper hit on the company’s bottom line, noting that May and June are typically stronger leisure trading months.

Which brings us to…

Goodman shares repositioning for AI data centre growth

Joining Flight Centre and Mineral Resources shares in the headlines today, Goodman shares are down 2.5%, trading for $29.30 apiece.

This follows the release of the ASX 200 integrated property group’s third-quarter update.

Goodman shares are slipping despite the company reporting a stable total portfolio value of $87.1 billion. And on the growth front, as at 31 March, Goodman has $14.5 billion of work in progress across its development projects.

Over the past four quarters, Goodman has leased 3.3 million square metres, bringing in $491 million in annual rental income.

Commenting on the company’s shifting focus, most notably impacted by the surging demand for AI-enabled data centres, Goodman Group CEO Greg Goodman said:

The group has progressively repositioned its portfolio toward large, infrastructure-scale industrial assets and data centres…

Hyperscale capex is accelerating, with our metropolitan portfolio positioned at the centre of cloud and AI demand, and the shift towards low-latency dependant AI inferencing.

The post Why Flight Centre, Goodman and Mineral Resources shares are creating a buzz on Tuesday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Mineral Resources shares hit two-year high on big lithium news
• Down 32% this year, why are Flight Centre shares sinking again today?
• Why are Goodman shares tumbling 5% today?
• Why these ASX real estate stocks could be sleeping giants

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goodman Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Flight Centre Travel Group and Goodman Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN) and Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd (ASX: VGN) shares have jumped higher over the past week as investors redirect their attention to ASX airline stocks.

At the time of writing, on Tuesday lunchtime trade, Qantas shares have slumped 0.11% to $9.17. Over the past week, the flying kangaroo’s shares have climbed 7.8% higher, recouping losses made in March. Qantas shares are now down 12% year to date.

Meanwhile, Virgin Australia shares have tumbled 2.7% in Tuesday lunchtime trade, to $2.53 a piece. Despite today’s drop, the ASX airline shares are still 7.7% higher than a week ago. For the year to date, Virgin Australia shares are down 27%.

Both ASX airline stocks crashed in March: Here’s why

The two aviation companies have faced significant headwinds so far in 2026 as conflict in the Middle East and rising fuel prices put airlines under pressure.

The largest operating cost for airlines is its jet fuel, which is refined from crude oil. Given Australia imports more than 90% of its refined fuel, its local prices track global oil prices and currency movements. 

That means that when oil prices rise due to tight supply or geopolitical tensions, jet fuel prices also rise. This then means that airlines, such as Qantas and Virgin Australia, face higher operating costs, which can pressure profits and potentially weigh on their share prices.

Both airlines previously raised domestic airfares and reduced routes in response to rising jet fuel costs in order to maintain, or even boost, revenue. But investors were still concerned about the airline’s operating costs and profits, and many have turned their backs on the travel companies over the past few months.

Why have Qantas and Virgin Australia shares turned around over the past week?

It looks like investors are slowly rotating back into airlines and travel companies after fears around Middle East fuel disruptions have started to ease. 

According to Trading Economics data, WTI crude oil prices started tumbling late last week and now sit around US$91 per barrel. Oil prices plunged by more than 6% on Monday alone amid rising optimism about a potential US-Iran agreement to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. 

Easing fuel costs and supply concerns are great news for airline companies.

Meanwhile, although international travel demand has softened thanks to geopolitical tensions and cost-of-living pressures, domestic travel has continued to remain resilient. 

Why are they tumbling again today?

There isn’t any price-sensitive news out of Qantas or Virgin Australia today to explain the latest price dip, and the oil price has remained stable after the latest dip.

It’s likely that today’s downward pressure is sentiment-driven, or that investors are taking gains off the table after the recent price spike.

What’s next for Virgin Australia’s shares?

The outlook for Virgin Australia shares is incredibly bullish. Analyst consensus is that the stock is a buy and they tip an upside of up to 64% to $4.15 over the next 12 months. 

What’s next for Qantas shares?

It looks like Qantas shares could storm higher too, although at a slightly lower rate. The majority of analysts (13 out of 14) have a buy or strong buy rating on the airline stock. They also expect the shares to fly another 40% to $12.80 over the next 12 months, at the time of writing.

The post Virgin Australia, Qantas shares jump 8% higher this week. Are the ASX airline stocks a buy, sell or hold? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

I firmly believe some of the best long-term buying opportunities can appear when investors are still feeling unsure.

But I am not looking for perfect conditions. I am looking for strong businesses where the market’s confidence has weakened, but the long-term opportunity still looks attractive.

Three ASX shares I think fit that idea are named in this article.

CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL)

CSL has been a difficult share to own in recent years and is down 60% over the past 12 months.

For a long time, it was treated as one of the ASX’s simplest long-term compounders. The business had a strong record, global scale, and exposure to healthcare markets that could grow over time.

That story has become more complicated. The market has lost confidence, the outlook has been challenged, and investors are no longer willing to give CSL the same benefit of the doubt.

I think that is why the stock is worth watching. CSL is still a global healthcare business with leading positions across plasma therapies, vaccines, and specialist medicines. Its problems do not look like the end of the company’s competitive position to me. They look more like a difficult period where margins, growth expectations, and investor trust all need to be rebuilt.

That rebuild may take years, so I do not think investors should expect a quick turnaround.

But I like the risk/reward more now than I did when expectations were much higher. The dividend yield has also become more appealing, which can help patient investors wait while management works through the next stage of the business.

REA Group Ltd (ASX: REA)

REA Group is another ASX share I would be happy to buy during a period of weaker sentiment. Its shares are down over 40% from their high.

The company owns Australia’s dominant digital property platform, realestate.com.au. That is a very valuable position.

Property buyers want to go where the listings are. Agents want to advertise where the buyers are. Sellers want their homes seen by the largest possible audience. That creates a powerful network effect.

I think REA has several ways to keep growing over time. Premium listings can become more valuable, agents can use more data and digital tools, and consumers can be served across more parts of the property journey.

The business can also benefit from artificial intelligence over time. Better search, more useful property insights, improved valuation tools, and smarter agent products could all make the platform more valuable.

Netwealth Group Ltd (ASX: NWL)

Down over 40% from its high, Netwealth is one of my preferred wealth platform shares.

The business benefits from a long-term change in financial advice. Advisers need better technology, more efficient administration, managed accounts, portfolio reporting, and tools that help them serve clients at scale.

Netwealth has built a strong reputation with advisers, and that can be hard to replicate.

What I like most is the scalability of the model. Once funds are on the platform, additional growth can support margins over time, provided the business continues to invest wisely and maintains service quality.

Competition is the risk. Hub24 Ltd (ASX: HUB), large institutions, and other platforms are all fighting for adviser flows. Valuation can also be demanding when the market is excited about platform growth.

But I think Netwealth remains a high-quality business in a sector with strong long-term tailwinds.

Foolish Takeaway

Market caution can be frustrating, but it can also be useful.

It gives investors time to look beyond the next result and ask a better question: Which businesses could still be stronger in five or 10 years?

I do not think any of these ASX shares will be smooth performers. But I like buying quality when the market is still debating the outlook. That is often where patient investors can find their edge.

The post Down 40%+! I’d buy CSL and these ASX shares while investors are still cautious appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has positions in CSL and Hub24. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL, Hub24, and Netwealth Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Netwealth Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL and Hub24. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Picking individual global shares can be difficult.

There are thousands of companies to choose from, and many Australian investors may not have the time or interest to closely follow overseas businesses.

That is where exchange-traded funds (ETFs) can help.

One ASX ETF I think could be a simple way to own a portfolio of high-quality global shares is named in this article.

VanEck MSCI International Quality ETF (ASX: QUAL)

The VanEck MSCI International Quality ETF is one of my preferred ASX ETFs for global exposure.

This fund does not simply buy the biggest companies in the world. It focuses on businesses with quality characteristics, including strong returns on equity, earnings stability, and lower financial leverage.

I like that approach because not every large company is a great business.

Some businesses are highly cyclical. Others rely too heavily on debt. Some have inconsistent earnings or operate in sectors where returns can move around sharply.

A quality filter helps narrow the field. The QUAL ETF gives investors exposure to global companies that have already proven they can generate attractive financial results.

Its holdings currently include world-class names such as Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft.

But I do not just like the fund because of the famous names.

I like it because it gives investors a rules-based way to own global companies with strong financial traits without needing to decide which one will win next. That is useful because even great businesses can go through periods of weaker performance.

For Australian investors, this ASX ETF can also help balance a portfolio.

The ASX is heavily exposed to banks, miners, supermarkets, infrastructure, and property. Those sectors can be good, but they do not give investors the same access to global technology, healthcare, software, consumer brands, and industrial leaders.

The QUAL ETF can fill some of that gap.

The management fee is higher than that of a basic index ETF, so investors need to be comfortable paying more for the quality screen. There is also no guarantee that quality shares will outperform every year.

In some markets, cheaper cyclical shares or more speculative growth stocks may do better.

But over the long term, I think owning financially strong global businesses is a sensible strategy. Companies with durable profitability and resilient earnings can be very powerful compounders when given enough time.

Foolish Takeaway

I think investing globally is a great thing for a portfolio.

The hard part is building a portfolio that can survive different market conditions and still compound over time.

That is why I like the QUAL ETF. It is not trying to be the flashiest ETF on the ASX. It is trying to give investors access to global quality in a disciplined way.

For a long-term portfolio, I think that can be a very useful building block.

The post Could this ASX ETF be the easiest way to invest in global quality? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) shares are marching higher today.

Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) energy stock closed yesterday trading for $7.94. In late morning trade on Tuesday, shares are changing hands for $8.03 each, up 1.1%.

For some context, the ASX 200 is down 0.4% at this same time.

Santos shares look to be catching some tailwinds, while the broader ASX 200 is facing headwinds, amid intraday news of limited new US and Israeli strikes against Iranian military assets. That news is already seeing global oil prices tick higher.

Separately, Santos is also holding its Investor Briefing Day in Sydney today.

Here’s what investors are tuning into.

Santos shares lift on strategic growth outlook

Santos led the briefing with a profile of its transformational tier-one assets.

The company noted that Barossa is online and currently producing at 75% of the project’s planned 2026 production rates. Santos is targeting plateau production at Barossa in mid-2026, citing unit production costs of less than $7 per barrel of oil equivalent (boe).

Turning to other growth assets expected to support Santos shares longer term, the company’s Pikka phase 1 in Alaska is also online. Management said Pikka is producing intermittently during the final commissioning activities, with “continuous production imminent”. Santos is targeting Pikka plateau production of around 80,000 barrels of oil per day (bopd) in Q3 2026. Unit production costs are expected to be less than $8/boe.

Citing its disciplined growth plans, the ASX 200 energy stock said its targeted free cash flow breakeven price stands between US$45 and US$50 per barrel.

By prioritising upstream investment in the Moomba Central fields over the broader Cooper Basin, the company aims to slash its cumulative capex by around $300 million from 2027 to 2030, with $150 million in savings annually thereafter.

What did management say?

Commenting on the tier-1 assets intended to support Santos shares longer-term, CEO Kevin Gallagher said:

The start-ups of Barossa and Pikka phase 1 are a defining moment for Santos. Production from these two major growth projects will now deliver a step-change in our free cash flow generation.

As for the impact of the ongoing Middle East conflict, Gallagher noted:

Current global instability has brought energy security sharply into focus. This has only reinforced the value of Santos’ diversified asset portfolio and geographic proximity to the fastest growing demand markets in the Asia Pacific.

Looking at what could impact Santos shares in the months ahead, Gallagher concluded:

Going forward, Santos will be laser focused on investment in major oil and LNG production across three regions as we develop tier-1 basins in Alaska and Papua New Guinea and fully appraise Australia’s Beetaloo and Bedout basins to provide scale, higher margins and leverage off existing advantaged infrastructure.

The post Buying Santos shares? Here’s how the company aims to cut spending and lift production appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Shares in Infratil Ltd (ASX: IFT) have plunged on Tuesday after the company issued “underwhelming” guidance for next year.

The company, which invests in data centre and renewable energy businesses, said full-year EBITDAF was up 11% to NZ$989 million, while its total asset value was up 13% to NZ$20.6 billion.

Outlook seen as weak

Infratil said it expected earnings to increase 21% in FY27, which RBC Capital Markets said came in below their expectations and which were “soft” and “underwhelming”.

The company said its earnings were mainly driven by investments in the Australasian data centre business CDC and the US renewable energy business Longroad Energy.

Infratil Chief Executive Officer Jason Boyes said the company was “very pleased to deliver a 13.9% total shareholder return across FY26, despite ongoing market noise and volatility”.

Demand for efficient AI infrastructure is striking and may be the investment opportunity of a lifetime. CDC’s announcement in early May of Australasia’s largest ever data centre contract has swept aside the market ups and downs of FY26, adding approximately 35% of returns since 31 March. CDC has demonstrated Australasia’s opportunity to attract global computing capacity, supported by regional stability, competitive build costs and access to renewable energy.

Infratil said CDC now had more than 1 gigawatt of contracted capacity and was forecasting earnings growth of more than 150% to more than $1 billion in FY28.

The company said that Longroad was also benefiting from data centre expansions.

Longroad Energy’s EBITDAF increased 170% to US$121 million in FY26 and is forecast to grow strongly as more generation enters operation. It has lifted its solar and battery projects under construction to a record 2GW in FY26 which combined with the 3.5GW already in operation, will deliver total generation capacity equivalent to about half of New Zealand’s current capacity. With electricity demand in the USA projected to increase by about 30% to 50% by 2040, Infratil has agreed to provide a further US$300 million to support Longroad’s acceleration over the next two years.

Longroad is targeting US$1 billion in earnings by CY29/30, Infratil said, underpinned by the recent acquisition of a very large-scale, circa 2.8 gigawatt solar and battery development.

Sticking to the strategy

Mr Boyes said the company was constantly on the lookout for new opportunities, with data centres and renewables likely to remain the best bets.

We’re exploring more opportunities to bring power and data centre expertise together – delivering integrated solutions for customers in a way that is more efficient and at greater scale. Longroad, for example, has established a dedicated data centre team and is progressing options to develop more than 4GW of grid-connected data centres, co-located with its solar and battery storage projects. These options could include simply providing the sites as powered land, or with powered shells developed by Longroad or with other partners.

Infratil shares were 6.4% lower on Tuesday at $12.22. The company is valued at $13.05 billion.

The post Why are this ASX data centre company’s shares down more than 6% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Elon Musk’s SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) last week issued its prospectus for an initial public offering (IPO) of shares, which would cement Mr Musk’s status as the richest person on Earth and value the company at up to US$2 trillion.

The prospectus for the first time sheds light on the financials of the company’s three divisions – the SpaceX rocket division, the Starlink satellite internet division, and the artificial intelligence division.

Lofty ambitions

Of the three, only Starlink turns a profit at the moment, but early on in the prospectus, it is clear that what you are buying into is as much about a very optimistic view of the future – and the future of the company – based around interplanetary travel, as it is about financial returns.

Naturally, these are meant to flow as the company achieves its mission, which it sets out early on, as such:

Our mission is to build the systems and technologies necessary to make life multiplanetary, to understand the true nature of the universe, and to extend the light of consciousness to the stars. To do this, we have formed the most ambitious, vertically integrated innovation engine on (and off) Earth with unmatched capabilities to rapidly manufacture and launch space-based communications that connect the world, to harness the Sun to power a truth-seeking artificial intelligence that advances scientific discovery, and ultimately to build a base on the Moon and cities on other planets.

SpaceX says, “We believe that space represents the largest economic frontier in human history”, and suggests that they will be building AI infrastructure in space, powered by the “virtually limitless” power of the sun, for the benefit of mankind.

While the company’s ambitions are lofty, it’s currently still burning money, making a US$2.59 billion loss on revenue of US$18.7 billion in 2025.

For the first three months of 2026, the Space division lost US$662 million, the AI division lost US$2.47 billion, and the connectivity division made a profit of US$1.19 billion.

So, at this point, investors will be very much buying into a growth story, rather than a profitable business.

How to buy into the vision

If this is something that you find compelling, the good news is that Australian brokers are likely to be able to offer shares in the SpaceX IPO.

As the prospectus says:

The public offering in Australia will be made pursuant to a separate prospectus which complies with the requirements of the Corporations Act and will be lodged with the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.

Broker CommSec has written to its customers this week, saying the IPO is “expected” to include an Australian retail offer and that it will be the lead Australian retail broker for the IPO.

CommSec said the shares will not be listed on the ASX, and its customers will need an international shares account.

It will also be possible for Australians with an international trading account to buy and sell shares once trading begins on the NASDAQ exchange, expected around June 12.

The post How Australians can buy SpaceX shares in the IPO appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Virgin Australia, Qantas shares jump 8% higher this week. Are the ASX airline stocks a buy, sell or hold?
• Down 40%+! I’d buy CSL and these ASX shares while investors are still cautious
• Could this ASX ETF be the easiest way to invest in global quality?
• Buying Santos shares? Here’s how the company aims to cut spending and lift production
• Why are this ASX data centre company’s shares down more than 6%

Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The rise of GLP-1 obesity drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy has been one of the most covered investment stories of the past two years.

For ResMed Inc (ASX: RMD), the debate has centred on a single question: If millions of people lose weight and no longer suffer from sleep apnea, what happens to demand for CPAP machines?

It is a fair question, and for most of 2025, the market answered it by selling ResMed shares aggressively, at one point sending them to a multi-year low as investors priced in an existential threat to the company’s core business.

Today, the evidence suggests that fear was significantly overstated, and that GLP-1 drugs may actually be one of the most powerful demand drivers ResMed has encountered in years.

Why the fear made sense initially

The bear case was not irrational.

Between 70% and 90% of obstructive sleep apnea cases are driven by obesity, meaning a drug that reliably reduces body weight could logically reduce the addressable market for CPAP devices over time.

That concern became more acute when Eli Lilly‘s GLP-1 drug Zepbound received FDA approval to treat obstructive sleep apnea directly, without requiring a CPAP machine.

This marked the first time a pharmaceutical had been approved as an alternative to device therapy for the condition.

ResMed shares fell sharply on that news, and the stock spent much of 2025 in what analysts described as the penalty box, maintained on watch lists but held back from buy recommendations pending clarity on whether GLP-1 adoption would materially erode device demand.

But the real-world data tells a different story

The most important piece of evidence came from ResMed’s own Q3 FY 2026 earnings call, where CEO Mick Farrell presented new data drawn from a cohort of 1.7 million de-identified patients.

The finding was striking.

PAP patients who subsequently start GLP-1 therapy show higher PAP adherence rates than patients on PAP alone, with two-year resupply rates 5.1% higher and three-year resupply rates 6.2% higher.

In other words, patients who take GLP-1 drugs while using CPAP therapy are more likely to keep using their devices, not less. Farrell went further, stating directly on the call:

We believe GLP-1s are truly a megatrend, and a once-in-a-generation demand-gen opportunity for ResMed Inc. Both GLP-1s and wearables alike are driving more patients to talk with their doctors and ultimately, we believe this will lead to more patients coming into the ResMed Inc. ecosystem.

Why GLP-1s are actually driving more patients to ResMed

As GLP-1 drugs become mainstream and patients visit doctors more frequently to manage their weight, they are also being screened for obesity-related conditions they may not have known they had, including sleep apnea.

According to ResMed, approximately one billion people worldwide are affected by sleep apnea, the vast majority of whom remain undiagnosed.

GLP-1 adoption is bringing millions of those undiagnosed patients into the healthcare system for the first time, and a meaningful proportion of them are receiving sleep apnea diagnoses and CPAP prescriptions as a result.

Furthermore, a meta-analysis published in GeroScience showed that individuals with sleep apnea have a 33% higher risk of developing dementia, and that sleep apnea was associated with a 45% increased risk of Alzheimer’s disease.

That evidence is motivating payers, health systems, and physicians to screen and treat sleep apnea more aggressively than ever before.

The financial performance backs it up

ResMed’s most recent quarterly results leave little doubt about the health of the underlying business.

In Q3 FY 2026, the company delivered revenue of US$1.29 billion, up 11% year on year, with operating income rising 22% and gross margins improving to 58.9%.

The software and services segment, which manages patient data and remote monitoring across more than 23 billion nights of sleep data, grew at a double-digit rate and now generates more than US$200 million per quarter.

ResMed shares remain down in 2026, a hangover from the GLP-1 fear trade that has not yet fully unwound.

Foolish Takeaway

ResMed was sold down on a fear that turned out to be wrong, or at least far less threatening than investors assumed.

The company’s own data now shows that GLP-1 adoption is increasing CPAP adherence, bringing more undiagnosed patients into the healthcare system, and creating what management has described as a once-in-a-generation demand opportunity.

For investors who can look past a year of negative sentiment and focus on what the numbers actually say, ResMed looks like one of the more interesting large-cap healthcare opportunities on the ASX today.

The post The global obesity drug boom could be bigger than investors realise for this ASX stock appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Eli Lilly and ResMed. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended ResMed. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares are in the spotlight this week.

The miner’s shares are down 0.2% at $60 a piece in early morning trade on Tuesday. The stock is now 31% higher for the year to date and 56% higher than 12 months ago.

For context, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has tumbled 0.49% this morning, with over half of the companies in the index falling into the red.

Why are BHP shares catching attention this week?

BHP shares hit a fresh record high on Friday last week after investors rotated back into diversified miners after the price of copper surged close to a multi-year high.

According to Trading Economics, copper futures climbed to around US$6.4 per pound on Monday, reaching their highest level in more than a week. Stronger investor sentiment comes off the back of signs that the US and Iran were moving closer to a deal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

At the same time, the miner’s climate policy is generating headlines this week. The mining giant has reportedly delayed billions of dollars in Pilbara decarbonization projects, according to the Guardian. 

In 2019, the miner pledged to reduce emissions from its operations, largely from energy and diesel use at its mines, by 30% by 2030.

It also sought to curtail indirect emissions – from the use of its iron ore and coal by others – which, at that stage, were equivalent to pollution from roughly 126m cars.

But, a leaked document outlines the company’s latest plans to decarbonise its network of Pilbara mines, power plants, trains, and diesel truck fleets that make up its Western Australian iron ore division, the Guardian explains. 

“The urgency for BHP to source renewables had diminished”, it said. BHP was now claiming the plan it had devised to hit net zero in the Pilbara by 2050 had a “low probability of success,” the Guardian reports.

What’s next for BHP shares?

It looks like BHP shares have now reached a ceiling. 

Analysts are mostly reserved about the outlook for the mining giant over the next 12 months.

Market Index brokers have a hold rating on BHP shares and tip a 2% downside to an average target price of $58.77.

The data is similar on TradingView. Out of 19 analysts, 14 have a hold rating on the mining stock. Another four rate the shares as a strong buy, and 1 rates them as a sell.

The average $57.36 target price implies a potential 4% downside at the time of writing. But some think the shares could crash 34% to $39.67, and others think the stock can still climb another 15% to $69.03 within the next 12 months.

The post Why is everyone talking about BHP shares this week? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.