Author: openjargon

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) experienced a wild, and ultimately negative day of trading this Thursday, in stark contrast to yesterday’s more optimistic showing.

After some initial volatility at market open this morning, the ASX 200 spent most of the session deep in red territory. A late-afternoon rally couldn’t quite save the markets, and the index ended up closing 0.0045% lower at 8,840.7 points.

This sulky session for the ASX comes despite a more confident day over on the American markets last night.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJX: .DJI) did well, rising 0.29%.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index (NASDAQ: .IXIC) did even better, gaining 0.62%.

But let’s return to the local markets now and check out how the different ASX sectors navigated today’s lethargic trading conditions.

Winners and losers

Fitting with the market’s small drop, we saw a fairly even split between winners and losers this Thursday.

Leading the latter were mining shares. The S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index (ASX: XMJ) was hit hard today, cratering 1.58%.

Energy stocks had another rough one as well, with the S&P/ASX 200 Energy Index (ASX: XEJ) plunging 1.53%.

Continuing the commodities theme, gold shares came next. The All Ordinaries Gold Index (ASX: XGD) saw its value dive 0.82%.

Consumer staples stocks were on the nose too, as you can see from the S&P/ASX 200 Consumer Staples Index (ASX: XSJ)’s 0.31% dip.

Utilities shares joined the losing team, too. The S&P/ASX 200 Utilities Index (ASX: XUJ) slid down 0.21% this session.

That’s it for the losers, though, so let’s get to the green sectors. Leading the winners were communications stocks, with the S&P/ASX 200 Communication Services Index (ASX: XTJ) enjoying a 1.1% surge.

Consumer discretionary shares also ran hot. The S&P/ASX 200 Consumer Discretionary Index (ASX: XDJ) added 1.09% to its total this Thursday.

Financial shares proved popular as well. The S&P/ASX 200 Financials Index (ASX: XFJ) roared 0.88% higher.

Real estate investment trusts (REITs) fared half as well, evidenced by the S&P/ASX 200 A-REIT Index (ASX: XPJ)’s 0.44% bounce.

Healthcare stocks were right behind REITs. The S&P/ASX 200 Healthcare Index (ASX: XHJ) lifted 0.39% today.

Tech shares were in that ballpark as well, with the S&P/ASX 200 Information Technology Index (ASX: XIJ) advancing 0.38%.

Finally, industrial stocks had a lucky finish, illustrated by the S&P/ASX 200 Industrials Index (ASX: XNJ)’s 0.08% bump.

Top 10 ASX 200 shares countdown

This Thursday’s index winner was financial stock AMP Ltd (ASX: AMP). AMP shares soared 9.83% higher today to close at $1.90 each.

This big jump followed a well-received earnings update from the company.

Here’s how the other winners landed their planes: 

ASX-listed company	Share price	Price change
AMP Ltd (ASX: AMP)	$1.90	9.83%
Mesoblast Ltd (ASX: MSB)	$2.77	6.95%
REA Group Ltd (ASX: REA)	$158.71	6.61%
Tabcorp Holdings Ltd (ASX: TAH)	$0.91	5.20%
Life360 Inc (ASX: 360)	$26.52	5.03%
Lovisa Holdings Ltd (ASX: LOV)	$23.63	4.93%
IRESS Ltd (ASX: IRE)	$6.61	3.93%
Fletcher Building Ltd (ASX: FBU)	$3.13	3.64%
Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co Ltd (ASX: SOL)	$45.49	3.32%
PEXA Group Ltd (ASX: PXA)	$7.85	3.15%

Our top 10 shares countdown is a recurring end-of-day summary that shows which companies made big moves on the day. Check in at Fool.com.au after the weekday market closes to see which stocks make the countdown.

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has positions in Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Company Limited. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Life360, Lovisa, and Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Company Limited. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Life360 and Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Company Limited. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Lovisa. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Well, it has been just over a month since the much-hyped initial public offering (IPO) of Space Exploration Technologies Corp (NASDAQ: SPCX). The IPO of Space Exploration Technologies Corp, better known as SpaceX, was perhaps the blockbuster investing event of the year. It was the largest IPO in history.

When SpaceX floated at US$135 a share last month, it valued the company at a whopping US$1.75 trillion. Despite valuation concerns, the initial float went exceedingly well for anyone who already owned SpaceX stock, or was able to secure some at US$135. After just a few days of trading, the company had rocketed (no pun intended) more than 67% to a high of US$225.64 on 16 June. That valued SpaceX at a near-inconceivable US$2.93 trillion.

Bear in mind that, as we’ve previously discussed, some investors have noted the disparity between SpaceX’s financials and the value that investors were willing to place on the company. To reiterate, the company generated US$18.7 billion in revenue last year and recorded an operating loss of US$4.2 billion.

That might explain why SpaceX stock hasn’t been doing that well since that 16 June high. In fact, SpaceX shares seem to be going in just one direction since that date a month ago. Last night (our time), the company closed at US$135.27 a share. That’s just a whisker above the initial SpaceX IPO price. What’s more, the company dipped below US$135 a share during intraday trading, hitting a low of US$132.15 (US$1.58 trillion). At that price, only investors who held shares prior to the IPO would not have been sitting on an on-paper loss.

So what’s going wrong with the SpaceX IPO then?

You might be wondering what has gone wrong with SpaceX shares since the IPO. After all, it’s not too often that a company whipsaws between US$1.58 trillion and US$2.93 trillion over just a month.

Well, I think this is a classic case of a hype bubble inflating and then deflating as excitement dies down and profits are taken off the table. We often see this happen with IPOs. The case of Guzman y Gomez Ltd (ASX: GYG) is a good local example. IPOs are, by nature, designed to maximise the profits of insider sellers, brokers, and the company itself, not to enrich retail investors. Once the rush is over, the market tends to revert to normalised valuation. And that is often bad news for those who were first to jump onto the train.

SpaceX was, and arguably still is, being priced on what it might deliver in the future, not what kind of profits it is bringing in the doors today (which were reportedly none last year). Potential is a difficult thing to price. So it’s no surprise to see the shares coming off the boil since the SpaceX IPO. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this stock continue to drift lower until we get a look at the company’s books when it reports its first set of public results. Perhaps even beyond that. Let’s see what happens to the SpaceX share price going forward.

The post What’s gone wrong with the SpaceX IPO? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• How much superannuation do I need to retire comfortably at age 67
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• A miner and an energy company to buy according to Macquarie

Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

When it comes to retirement, we all want to make sure we have enough superannuation to afford the best lifestyle possible. 

But working out exactly how much money you need is trickier than you’d think. 

After all, the super balance you need depends on your living situation, your expected retirement age, and what type of retirement lifestyle you’re aiming for.

Do you own your own house outright? Are you a single person or living as part of a couple? What type of travel do you expect to do after you finish working? Do you have any debts? What age do you want to retire?

Let’s assume you’re aiming for a comfortable retirement starting at age 67.

Here’s a breakdown of what that could look like, what it could cost you, and how much superannuation you’d need.

What does a comfortable retirement look like?

The Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia (ASFA) splits retirement into two broad categories: comfortable and modest.

ASFA defines a comfortable retirement as one that gives retirees a good standard of living well beyond the age pension. It budgets for expenses beyond a modest retirement, including top-tier private health insurance and regular leisure activities. It allocates funds for home repairs or renovations, and perhaps even an annual holiday.

Meanwhile, a modest retirement is defined as being able to cover expenses just slightly above what the full Centrelink Age Pension would provide from age 67. 

How much is a comfortable retirement expected to cost?

A comfortable ASFA retirement is expected to cost around $55,923 per year for single Australians, and $78,566 for a couple living together.

These figures also assume you’ll receive a part Age Pension, that you own your home in full, and that you already have an emergency fund set aside.

How much superannuation do I need at age 67 to afford that?

In order to fund a comfortable retirement, ASFA calculates that at age 67, single Australians will need around $630,000. Meanwhile, couples will need a superannuation balance of around $730,000.

How do I know if I’m on track to reach that balance by age 67?

I’ve crunched the numbers using ASFA’s super detective tool to work out what superannuation balance you should have at each age milestone to be able to reach that goal.

At age 40, Australians should have a superannuation balance of around $178,000.

By age 45, this should be closer to $239,000.

At age 50, you’ll want to have around $313,500 in your superannuation.

This should then increase to about $399,000 by age 55.

Aussies aged 60 should have close to $496,500.

By age 65, to remain on track, your total superannuation balance should be around $604,500.

Are you on track?

The post How much superannuation do I need to retire comfortably at age 67 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 3 ASX dividend shares that look better after CGT reforms
• 1 ASX dividend stock down 18% I’d buy today!
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• How much could ResMed shares rise according to Morgans?

Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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Capital gains tax (CGT) changes should never be a reason to throw a sound investment process in the bin.

A mediocre business does not become attractive because it pays a dividend. Nor should investors abandon companies capable of compounding capital simply because future gains may be taxed differently.

However, the announced CGT reforms could change the after-tax maths behind total shareholder returns.

Under current rules, Australian resident individuals who hold an asset for at least 12 months can generally apply a 50% discount to the taxable capital gain. If implemented as announced, the government will replace that discount from 1 July 2027 with inflation-based cost-base indexation and a minimum 30% tax rate on real gains. The new system would apply only to gains accruing after that date.

Treasury’s examples show low-return investments may pay less tax because inflation is removed from the gain. However, assets delivering strong returns above inflation can face a larger tax bill than under the current discount.

That makes it worth considering how returns are generated. Dividends remain taxable income, so they are not a free lunch. But reliable and growing distributions — particularly when supported by franking credits — may become a more valuable part of the total-return equation. The shift towards income assets is already influencing investor behaviour.

Here are three ASX dividend shares that could fit that framework.

Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (ASX: SOL)

Soul Patts is not simply a high-yield stock. It is a diversified investment house designed to build wealth across market cycles.

Its portfolio spans listed companies, private businesses, emerging companies, credit, and real assets. Earlier in 2026, the company reported pre-tax net asset value of $13.8 billion, with no single asset class representing more than one-third of the portfolio.

That flexibility allows management to recycle capital into opportunities offering better risk-adjusted returns.

The dividend record is equally compelling. Soul Patts has paid a dividend every year since listing in 1903 and increased its regular dividend every year since 1998. Its latest interim dividend rose to 48 cents per share, fully franked.

For investors thinking about both capital growth and rising income, Soul Patts may be one of the ASX’s clearest all-rounders.

Transurban Group (ASX: TCL)

Transurban offers a different kind of durability.

Its toll roads are essential pieces of urban infrastructure, with revenue supported by traffic volumes and contractual toll increases. More than 90% of revenue is linked to inflation or fixed escalations, providing some protection when costs rise.

The company reported 2.6 million average daily trips in the first half of FY26, up 2.5%. Proportional revenue rose 6%, while proportional operating earnings increased 6.4%.

There are risks. Transurban carries substantial debt, making funding costs important, while toll-road regulation can create uncertainty. Even so, long-life assets, inflation-linked pricing, and growing urban congestion give it a relatively visible income base. It also adds a different income driver to a diversified dividend portfolio.

Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG)

Macquarie is often grouped with the major banks, but its earnings engine is far broader than Australian mortgages.

The group operates across asset management, commodities, infrastructure, advisory, private credit, and banking. This creates more earnings volatility than a traditional retail bank, but also reduces dependence on one economy and one lending market. It is not necessarily lower risk overall, but its risks are less concentrated in Australian housing.

Macquarie reported FY26 net profit of $4.85 billion, up 30%, and lifted its full-year dividend to $7 per share, 35% franked. The payout represented 55% of earnings, within its stated 50% to 70% policy.

An investment in Macquarie isn’t without risk. Investment banking earnings can move sharply between years. However, Macquarie’s global reach, diversified revenue streams, and conservative capital position make it an appealing dividend grower rather than a simple yield play.

Foolish takeaway

The CGT reforms should not dictate which companies investors own.

Business quality, valuation, balance-sheet strength, and future prospects still matter far more than tax settings.

However, the reforms may encourage investors to look beyond capital growth alone. Companies that can reinvest profit, grow earnings, and steadily lift dividends could offer a more balanced path to total shareholder returns.

Soul Patts, Transurban, and Macquarie each approach that task differently — through diversified capital allocation, infrastructure cash flows, and global financial expertise.

The post 3 ASX dividend shares that look better after CGT reforms appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group, Transurban Group, and Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Company Limited. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Transurban Group and Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Company Limited. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

When it comes to ASX dividend stocks, IPH Ltd (ASX: IPH) is a long-term high-yielding player.

At the time of writing, IPH shares are up around 1% and changing hands for $4.14 a piece.

The ASX dividend stock has performed well so far in 2026, climbing over 15% year to date. The share price has also rebounded an impressive 30% since hitting an all-time low of just $3.19 per share in March this year.

It hasn’t all been smooth sailing, though. The company has faced significant headwinds over the past few years, which have sent its share price crashing.

These include, underperformance by its Australia and New Zealand segments, concerns about transition to a new CEO, a declining volume of US patent filings, and currency volatility.

Since October 2022, when IPH shares spiked close to an all-time high of $9.22 a piece, they began a consistent and relentless tumble through to the end of 2025.

The most significant crash followed the company’s FY25 results in mid-August last year, when the share price fell 20% in just one day. 

So, while the year-to-date share price gains are impressive. Over the past 12 months, IPH shares are still down around 18%. 

Some investors might be put off by the falling share price and company headwinds. But I think the latest share price crash presents a rare opportunity to buy the high-yielding ASX dividend stock for cheap.

Here are three reasons why.

1. IPH has paid a reliable and consistent high-yield dividend

The ASX dividend stock has paid a regular semi-annual dividend payment to shareholders for years. IPH started paying a dividend to investors in 2016 and has gradually increased its annual payout each year since 2018.

It pays a high dividend yield, too. IPH maintains a high payout ratio of 80% to 90%. In March, the company paid its shareholders an interim dividend of 19 cents per share, 20% franked. That implies a yield of around 9.4% at the time of writing.

2. It has a defensive market position

IPH is an intellectual property (IP) services provider. Because IP protection is a legal necessity regardless of economic cycles, the company benefits from consistent cash flow and solid earnings visibility, even amid sharemarket volatility.

3. It has secured new executive leadership

Part of the headwinds facing IPH has been uncertainty about the company’s ability to transition its leadership to a new CEO. 

But in May, the company announced it had recruited for the position, and Tony O’Malley began the role as Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer earlier this month. 

He replaced Andrew Blattman, who flagged his retirement in November. Blattman will stay with the company for a transition period and continue providing support until 30 November 2026.

The update has clearly helped to ease some investor concerns and improve sentiment.

The post 1 ASX dividend stock down 18% I’d buy today! appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended IPH Ltd. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) shares are climbing higher into the green in Thursday lunchtime trade.

At the time of writing, the shares are up around 0.5% and changing hands for $122.29 a piece.

Today’s uptick means the ASX biotech shares have now climbed around 15% over the past month and have rebounded 33% since a 15-year low in early June.

But there is still a long way for CSL shares to go before they’ve recouped the huge amount of losses shed over the past 18 months.

The shares are still down around 29% for the year-to-date and are 51% lower than trading prices 12 months ago.

The latest rebound is certainly a step in the right direction. But the question now is, can CSL shares keep climbing higher?

Here’s what the experts expect from the biotech stock over the next 12 months.

Buy, sell or hold: Here’s what brokers tip for CSL shares

It looks like market sentiment for CSL shares has shifted recently. Previously, brokers were incredibly bullish about the ASX healthcare shares and were confident of a strong upside ahead.

But now it looks like there’s a little more caution in the market.

Market Index data shows that the majority of brokers now have a hold rating on CSL shares. The $131.48 target price implies a potential 8% upside at the time of writing.

TradingView data also shows some ratings downgrades. Out of 18 analysts, 10 now have a hold stance on the biotech company’s shares, and another eight have a hold or strong hold rating.

The average target price is a little higher at $140.15, which implies a potential 15% upside at the time of writing. But some are still bullish that CSL shares could climb 64% to $199.68 over the next 12 months.

Morgans is one of the more optimistic brokers. It has a buy rating with a price target of $147.59, implying a robust upside ahead. The broker notes that CSL’s long-term story remains intact. However, it thinks that a sustained recovery in sentiment may take several quarters to fully materialise while investors wait for clear improvement in the company’s financials.

Elsewhere, the team at Macquarie is more cautious. The broker has a lower price target of $114 and a neutral stance. It cites uncertainty across CSL’s core plasma and albumin businesses, as well as ongoing competitive pressures.

My view on CSL shares

The latest rebound shows that investors are now looking forward to the company’s FY26 results announcement and any sign that management has been able to improve operations. 

I think there is a lot of potential for the company over the next few years. After all, CSL is operating in a high-growth market, and its blood plasma division dominates the market for rare blood disorders and immunoglobulin products. 

Global demand for plasma therapies is strong and growing, too. There is recurring demand and limited competition, which makes CSL well-placed to carve out a significant portion of the market.

I think that once CSL is able to turn around its financials, investor confidence will follow.

The post Here’s what brokers tip for CSL shares over the next 12 months appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL and Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL and Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The analyst team at Macquarie has recently issued new research notes on various companies in the resources sector.

I’ve picked out two ASX shares which might be of interest, respectively in the gas and mineral sands sectors.

Let’s have a look at who they like.

Amplitude Energy Ltd (ASX: AEL)

Macquarie notes in its recent report on Amplitude that the company is on track for a final investment decision for its East Coast Gas Project this quarter and first production in FY28.

Amplitude shored up the project in May, buying half of the Artisan gas field in the offshore Otway Basin from Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) for $58.3 million.

Amplitude Managing Director Jane Norman said regarding the deal:

Producing Artisan through Amplitude Energy’s existing infrastructure allows faster and lower-cost development of this gas for the east coast domestic market. Artisan development costs will significantly benefit from leveraging the existing East Coast Supply Project (ECSP) program and our readily-available infrastructure. This is a win-win for Amplitude, O.G. Energy and Beach with respect to optimising our respective Otway Basin positions. We expect to rapidly move to FID on the development phase of the ECSP over the next few months while the drilling of the Juliet and Annie wells is conducted, with Juliet now brought forward and drilling expected to commence by late July or early August.

Macquarie said there was downside pressure on gas prices from the Federal Government’s gas reservation scheme, but also noted that 80% of Amplitude’s 2026 gas volumes were under contract.

They added:

Latest gas market interventions drive a structural oversupply in domestic gas markets, but we believe incentives may ultimately be required to encourage investment in backfill supply projects (eg. carve outs, subsidies, creation of domestic trading credit market).

Macquarie has a price target of $2.15 on Amplitude shares compared to $1.49 currently.

Iluka Resources Ltd (ASX: ILU)

Macquarie said zircon pricing improved in the first quarter of 2026, with improved Chinese sentiment and tight premium zircon supply supporting the market.

In contrast, titanium dioxide markets remained weak, while rutile prices were also depressed through the second quarter, Macquarie said.

Despite that weakness, Macquarie has a bullish share price target on the stock of $8 compared to $6.30 currently.

The broker added:

While we see early signs of recovery in zircon markets, titanium dioxide feedstock markets remain weak and continue to present an earnings headwind for ILU. Construction of Eneabba Phase 3 remains underway, with completion targeted for 2HCY27, requiring investors to maintain a longer-term investment horizon.

The post A miner and an energy company to buy according to Macquarie appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

ResMed Inc (ASX: RMD) shares have fallen by more than 25% over the past year, which begs the question: Is now the time to buy in?

ResMed shares looking cheap according to analysts

The analyst team at Morgans has run the ruler over the company, and has a buy recommendation on the stock and a bullish share price target, which we’ll get to shortly.

The reason the Morgans team had another look at ResMed was because of the company’s recent move to sell its MatrixCare division for US$490 million, with that sale expected to be completed in the first quarter of FY27.

ResMed said the sale would allow it to focus more strongly on its core business.

As it said:

This move reflects Resmed’s 2030 strategy by focusing on high-growth, scalable opportunities in sleep health, breathing health and connected home-based healthcare. The divestiture also strengthens Resmed’s ability to reallocate capital and resources toward innovation, operational scale and long-term value creation across its connected, home-based care ecosystem.

MatrixCare is a software business focused on “nursing, senior living and long-term care, life planning communities, and home health and hospice care”.

The Morgans team said they believed the transaction made sense as it would simplify the ResMed business.

They added:

Importantly, net proceeds will largely be returned to shareholders via an accelerated share repurchase (ASR), which should substantially offset earnings dilution from both the MatrixCare disposal and the recently completed Noctrix acquisition, while FY26 guidance has been reaffirmed.

Morgans said MatrixCare, which ResMed acquired for US$750 million in 2018, had been a disappointing acquisition for the company.

Morgans said:

During this time, earnings increased from ~US$30m to ~US$55m, implying modest long-term earnings growth. While this reflects poorly on the original acquisition, we believe exiting today is preferable to continuing to allocate capital toward a mature business with limited strategic alignment.

ResMed target price has been reduced

Overall, Morgans remains positive on ResMed’s outlook; however, they slightly reduced their price target to $41.72.

As they said:

We view RMD’s fundamentals as sound, with consistent execution, strong cash generation and structural growth tailwinds from expanding diagnosis and resupply. We have a BUY rating with a sum of the parts/discounted cash flow target price of $40.97.

ResMed shares were changing hands for $28.25 on Thursday.

The company is valued at $40.06 billion and pays an unfranked 1.23% dividend yield.

ResMed will report its fourth quarter earnings on 6 August.

The post How much could ResMed shares rise according to Morgans? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended ResMed. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended ResMed. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Dividend winners do not usually begin with a dividend cut.

But that is what makes Jumbo Interactive Ltd (ASX: JIN) an interesting ASX income share to watch.

The Jumbo Interactive share price remains down more than 25% over the past 12 months, despite recovering from its recent 52-week low of $5.85 to trade back above $7.

The worst of the sentiment followed a Morgan Stanley downgrade in June. The broker lowered its rating to hold and slashed its 12-month price target from $14.50 to $8.40. Jumbo shares were subsequently whacked by around 17% at one point.

Yet underneath the negative sentiment sits a profitable, growing business offering a dividend yield of approximately 6% at the time of writing.

That payout has recently been reduced. However, the decision may strengthen Jumbo’s capacity to deliver more sustainable income over the long term.

Why cut a healthy dividend?

Jumbo’s leadership has deliberately lowered the company’s dividend payout ratio following its acquisitions of Dream Car Giveaways in the United Kingdom and Dream Giveaway in the United States.

That means more cash can remain inside the business to reduce debt and strengthen the balance sheet.

Income investors may understandably prefer receiving that cash today. However, paying down acquisition debt can reduce financial risk and give Jumbo greater flexibility long term.

It could also create an interesting future catalyst.

Should debt fall, earnings continue growing, and the board eventually restore a higher payout ratio, shareholders could benefit from a larger dividend and a potential valuation re-rating.

There are no guarantees, of course. Yet the current yield of around 6%, before considering franking credits, already looks competitive beside cash investments – even after the temporary payout reduction.

The underlying business is still growing

The recent trading update suggests Jumbo’s fundamentals are stronger than its falling share price might imply.

Management expects FY26 underlying operating earnings (EBITDA) of between $82 million and $85 million. That would represent growth of between 20% and 24%.

Underlying profits (NPAT) are forecast to rise by between 13% and 18% to between $48 million and $50 million.

Dream Giveaway US is the standout performer. Jumbo almost doubled its underlying earnings guidance from US$2.7 million to US$3 million to US$5.2 million to US$5.5 million.

Canadian managed services growth was also upgraded from 20% to 25% to 35% to 45%, supported by new business wins, product investment, and favourable campaign timing.

The improving performance of these newer operations matters because Jumbo is gradually becoming less dependent on Australian lottery ticket sales.

Its growing international prize-draw, software platform, and managed services businesses could provide additional earnings streams across the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada.

Why dividends may matter more

Jumbo’s income potential could also attract greater attention following Australia’s capital gains tax reforms.

From 1 July 2027, the existing 50% CGT discount will be replaced by cost-base indexation and a minimum 30% tax rate on real capital gains. The reforms apply to gains arising after that date.

Investors should never choose a company solely because of tax changes. Total shareholder returns still depend on the quality of the business, its earnings, valuation, and future prospects.

However, where capital gains receive less favourable treatment, dependable dividends may become a more valuable component of investor returns.

What could go wrong?

The concerns surrounding Jumbo are real.

Its reseller agreements with the Lottery Corporation Ltd (ASX: TLC) run until 2030, and investors remain uncertain about renewal terms and future margins. The Dream businesses carry integration risk, while regulatory changes could affect the UK prize-draw market.

Bell Potter has retained its hold rating and set a $7.20 price target, citing ongoing concerns about Australian market share.

Jumbo is not a smooth-sailing dividend investment. But with earnings growing, international diversification gaining momentum, debt reduction underway, and a yield of around 6%, this beaten-down ASX share could be a hidden dividend winner worth watching.

The post Is this beaten-down ASX software stock hiding a dividend winner? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Jumbo Interactive and The Lottery Corporation. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Jumbo Interactive and The Lottery Corporation. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The AMP Ltd (ASX: AMP) share price is in focus after the company flagged an expected underlying net profit after tax (NPAT) of $170–180 million for the first half of 2026, driven by stronger China partnerships and increased investment income.

What did AMP report?

• Expected NPAT (underlying) for 1H26: $170–180 million
• China partnerships contributed approximately $56 million, a 24% increase over 2H25
• Group investment income added roughly $5 million compared to 1H25, benefiting from higher interest rates
• Platforms saw a favourable $5 million impact from the North Guarantee
• Recognition of approximately $13 million in carried interest from asset sales
• Negative revaluation of about $12 million in ‘Other Partnerships’ sponsor investments

What else do investors need to know?

AMP has received a portion of its carried interest tied to the sale of a 51% stake in legacy fund assets previously held by AMP Capital’s International Infrastructure Equity business. The sale, managed by DigitalBridge, delivered $13 million in carried interest recognised in the half-year result.

There is still potential for further carried interest earnings if the remaining 49% interest is sold, but this remains subject to conditions and regulatory approvals, so nothing is guaranteed at this stage.

AMP’s full 1H26 results will be released on 6 August 2026, with the company planning to provide more detail on its FY26 outlook at that time.

What’s next for AMP?

Investors looking ahead will be waiting on the August results announcement for additional information about AMP’s earnings trajectory and future guidance for full-year 2026. The business will likely update shareholders on carried interest developments and its strategic direction in China and other partnerships.

With earnings up on stronger investment income and China activity, AMP appears positioned to keep building momentum as market conditions evolve.

AMP Limited share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, AMP shares have risen 21%, outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO), which has risen 2% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post AMP expects higher 1H26 earnings on China growth appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips. This article was prepared with the assistance of Large Language Model (LLM) tools for the initial summary of the company announcement. Any content assisted by AI is subject to our robust human-in-the-loop quality control framework, involving thorough review, substantial editing, and fact-checking by our experienced writers and editors holding appropriate credentials. The Motley Fool Australia stands behind the work of our editorial team and takes ultimate responsibility for the content published by The Motley Fool Australia.