Author: openjargon

The board of BlueScope Steel Ltd (ASX: BSL) this week rejected an all-cash, $30 per share takeover offer for the company, which raises the question: What is BlueScope actually worth?

BlueScope Chair Jane McAloon was pretty strident in criticising the takeover offer from SGH Ltd (ASX: SGH) and US company Steel Dynamics (NASDAQ: STLD) as too low, as you can see from these comments she made on Wednesday.

Let me be clear – this proposal was an attempt to take BlueScope from its shareholders on the cheap. It drastically undervalued our world-class assets, our growth momentum, and our future – and the board will not let that happen. This is the fourth time we’ve said no, and the answer remained the same – BlueScope is worth considerably more than what was on the table.

More upside on offer

The team at Jarden have run the ruler over BlueScope, and it’s fair to say that they agree with the BlueScope board in this regard.

In terms of what might get the board across the line, Jarden had this to say:

The comments seem to suggest any bid would need to include valuation of potential synergies, recognition of latent property value, recognition of North American asset quality and below mid-cycle APAC conditions to gain board support.

The last comment was referring to Ms McAloon’s comments that Asian steel prices are currently at a low ebb, and if prices and foreign exchange rates returned to historical average levels, “this would be expected to generate an additional $400 to $900 million of EBIT per annum relative to FY2025”.

Takeover value much higher

The Jarden analysts said under a “break-up scenario”, they valued BlueScope at $36 per share, 20% higher than the offer currently on the table.

The analysts have revised their 12-month price target on the company to $32 per share, with a 50% probability that the company will not be bought out, and would therefore be worth $28 per share, and a 50% weighting of a bid at $36.

As the analysts said in a note to clients:

We expect BSL’s share price will continue to be driven more by news flow around corporate activity than fundamental valuation. We maintain our neutral rating. The key downside risk is a transaction failing to materialise, while the key upside risk would be a superior proposal.

BlueScope shares were changing hands for $28.83 on Friday morning, down 1.9%.

BlueScope shares closed at $29.40 on Thursday, valuing the company at $12.78 billion.  

The post What’s the real value of BlueScope shares? Jarden analysts weigh in appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 3 ASX 200 stocks rocketing higher in the first full trading week of 2026
• AustralianSuper boosts its stake in takeover target BlueScope Steel
• Why Ansell, Elsight, Ramelius, and SGH shares are falling today
• 10 best ASX 200 large-cap shares of 2025
• BlueScope shares fall after rejecting ‘significantly undervalued’ takeover offer

Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended Steel Dynamics. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Making bold predictions is part and parcel of investing in risk assets. When they’re right, those predictions can translate into extraordinary returns. When they’re wrong, they tend to age very poorly.

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has lived at the centre of that tension for more than a decade. Every year brings a fresh wave of eye-catching forecasts, from imminent collapse to stratospheric gains. 

Very few land anywhere near the mark.

As investors look ahead in 2026, it’s worth stepping back from the noise and asking a simpler question: What is the current state of play for Bitcoin, and what should investors actually be paying attention to?

The state of play for Bitcoin heading into 2026

Bitcoin enters 2026 in a very different position than where it stood just a few years ago.

The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in major markets has been a structural shift. Institutional capital now has regulated, familiar pathways to gain exposure, and Bitcoin increasingly trades alongside other global risk assets rather than in isolation.

At the same time, Bitcoin’s price action has appeared more subdued than many long-term holders expected. After periods of explosive upside, stretches of sideways or “boring” trading have returned. That has frustrated momentum traders, but it has also reinforced an important point: Bitcoin is maturing.

Macro conditions now matter more than ever. Interest rate expectations, global liquidity, and central bank policy have all shown a strong influence on Bitcoin’s short-term price movements. When liquidity tightens, Bitcoin has struggled. When conditions ease, it tends to rally alongside equities and other growth assets.

This doesn’t make Bitcoin less volatile. It simply means the drivers of that volatility are clearer and more interconnected with the broader financial system.

The bearish predictions: Why some expect pain ahead

On the bearish side, the arguments are familiar but not irrelevant.

Some critics argue Bitcoin remains vulnerable to sharp drawdowns if global growth slows or financial conditions tighten further. Rising real yields, regulatory uncertainty in certain jurisdictions, and the risk of speculative excess all feature prominently in bearish outlooks.

Others point to Bitcoin’s history of brutal corrections. Even in long-term uptrends, 50% to 80% drawdowns have occurred multiple times. From this perspective, calls for a major pullback in 2026 are not outrageous. They are consistent with Bitcoin’s past behaviour.

More extreme bearish predictions go further, questioning Bitcoin’s intrinsic value altogether. These views tend to resurface whenever price momentum fades, often amplified by headlines designed to provoke fear rather than insight.

The bullish predictions: How high is “too high”?

On the other end of the spectrum sit the bold bullish forecasts.

Some investors project Bitcoin prices well into the hundreds of thousands of US dollars, citing fixed supply, growing institutional adoption, and its emerging role as a hedge against currency debasement. Others attach even larger numbers, arguing that Bitcoin could eventually rival gold or become a global reserve asset.

These scenarios usually rely on long-term adoption curves rather than near-term catalysts. They assume Bitcoin continues to absorb capital from traditional stores of value and benefits from structural distrust in fiat currencies.

The issue is not that these outcomes are impossible. It’s that price targets often get treated as inevitabilities rather than highly uncertain scenarios. Markets rarely move in straight lines, and narratives can change much faster than fundamentals.

What investors should focus on instead

The uncomfortable truth is that nobody knows where the Bitcoin price will be at the end of 2026.

What is far more predictable is that volatility will remain. Bitcoin has never offered a smooth ride, and there is little reason to expect that to change now that it has entered mainstream capital markets.

For investors, the key question is not which prediction sounds most compelling, but whether they have built genuine conviction. That means understanding why Bitcoin exists, what role it might play in a portfolio, and how much volatility it can realistically tolerate.

Pinning hopes on the loudest voice or the boldest headline is rarely a sound strategy. 

In 2026, as in every year before it, Bitcoin will likely surprise both bulls and bears. Investors who approach it with clear expectations, sober risk management, and independent thinking will be best placed to handle whatever comes next.

The post Bold calls, big risks, and what really matters for Bitcoin price in 2026 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Better Buy in 2026: XRP, Dogecoin, or Bitcoin?
• Will the Bitcoin price crash in 2026?

Motley Fool contributor Leigh Gant owns Bitcoin. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Bitcoin. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Shares in Australian defence companies with exposure to the US are trending higher on Friday after comments overnight from US President Donald Trump that he’d like to see a massive increase in defence spending.

President Trump said that the 2027 US defence budget should be US$1.5 trillion, well above the US$901 million so far approved.

Unsettled times ahead

Mr Trump said in a post to social media site Truth Social that he had determined that military spending needed to be increased “in these very troubled and dangerous times”.

He added:

Our military budget for the year 2027 should not be $1 trillion dollars, but rather $1.5 trillion dollars. This will allow us to build the ‘Dream Military’ that we have long been entitled to and, more importantly, will keep us SAFE and SECURE, regardless of foe.

Mr Trump also credited an increase in revenue from his tariff measures as allowing the substantial increase in military spending to take place.

US defence stocks such as Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin increased substantially following the comments, although both were coming off weakness in the previous session.

Closer to home shares in Austal Ltd (ASX: ASB), DroneShield Ltd (ASX: DRO) and Elsight Ltd (ASX: ELS) were higher in early trade on Friday.

Austal has significant facilities in the US and could stand to benefit from an increase in US defence spending.

It has a shipyard in Mobile Alabama where it is working on the construction of a new surface ship assembly building which is on track for completion in 2027.

The company’s website says it has delivered 34 ships to the US Navy since 2009.

Austal also has production facilities in Australia, the Philippines and Vietnam.

DroneShield has significant business in the US, announcing in November that it had been awarded three contracts worth $7.6 million for counter-drone packages, with those contracts to be fulfilled in 2025 and payments to come in by the end of the current quarter.

The company said at the time it was looking to greatly expand in both Europe and the US by the end of 2026, “including commencement of European and US-based assembly plants”.

Elsight also has US interests, announcing just this week that it had received a $682,000 order from a US commercial customer in the public safety sector.

Austal shares were 2.9% higher at $8.03 on Friday morning. DroneShield shares were up 1.8% at $3.92 and Elsight shares were 2.9% higher at $3.57.

The post Aussie defence stocks tick higher on bullish Trump comments appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Why Ansell, Elsight, Ramelius, and SGH shares are falling today
• Which ASX 200 market sectors delivered the best dividend yields in 2025?
• 3 incredible ASX growth shares to buy and hold forever in 2026

Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended DroneShield. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The big four S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) bank stocks all offered investors solid passive income payouts in calendar year 2025.

But which of the banks delivered the best payments?

I’m glad you asked!

How did the passive income from ANZ shares stack up with CBA shares

Kicking off with the biggest of the ASX 200 bank stocks, Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) paid out a record amount of passive income in 2025.

Eligible investors will have received the fully franked interim CBA dividend of $2.25 a share on 28 March. CBA paid out the final dividend of $2.60 a share on 29 September.

That equates to a total dividend payout of $4.85 a share.

Now CBA shares are also the most expensive among the big four banks.

At the current CBA share price of $154.40, the stock trades on a fully franked trailing dividend yield of 3.1%.

Moving on to ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ), the bank’s 2025 passive income payouts matched what it paid in 2024. Both 2025 dividends were franked at 70%.

ANZ paid an interim dividend of 83 cents a share on 1 July. And the ASX 200 bank stock paid out its final dividend, also 83 cents a share, on 19 December.

That equates to a full year payout of $1.66 share.

While that’s a lower payment per share than CBA, at the current ANZ share price of $35.43, the bank stock trades on a partly franked trailing dividend yield of 4.7%, which is higher than its bigger rival.

How much passive income did NAB and Westpac pay in 2025?

Turning to National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB), NAB paid a fully franked interim dividend of 85 cents per share on 2 July and the bank paid out its final dividend of 85 cents per share on 12 December.

That equates to a full year payout of $1.70 a share. At the current NAB share price of $41.07, this sees NAB stock trading on a fully franked trailing dividend yield of 4.1%.

Which brings us to the passive income paid by Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC).

Westpac paid a fully franked interim dividend of 76 cents per share on 27 June and eligible stockholders will have received the final dividend of 77 cents per share on 19 December.

That works out to a full year dividend payout of $1.53 a share. At the current Westpac share price of $37.94, Westpac shares trade on a fully franked trailing dividend yield of 4.0%.

So, who’s the winner?

Well, at $4.85 a share CBA paid out the most passive income per share in 2025.

As for the best dividend yield, that honour goes to ANZ which trades on a of 4.7% trailing yield. Though those dividends are not fully franked.

How have the big four ASX 200 bank stocks been tracking?

Over the past 12 months to date, the ASX 200 has gained 5.0%.

Atop the passive income they’ve delivered, here’s how the big four ASX bank shares have performed over this same period:

• CBA shares are down 2.7%
• ANZ shares are up 20.8%
• NAB shares are up 7.1%
• Westpac shares are up 14.3%

The post Which of the big 4 ASX 200 bank stocks paid the most passive income in 2025? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Will 2026 be make-or-break for the Westpac share price?
• With inflation edging lower, here’s the latest 2026 interest rate forecast from CBA
• Here’s the dividend forecast out to 2028 for CBA shares
• Why Bellevue Gold, Harvey Norman, Karoon Energy, and Westpac shares are falling today
• Australian Bank Stocks: Which ones look like a buy (and which don’t)

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

2025 was a decent year for the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO). On its bookends, the rise from 8,159.1 points to 8,714.3 points last year meant that the ASX 200 gained 6.8% for the year. That’s not a bad return, particularly when boosted by the dividends that ASX 200 shares paid out over the year. Luckily for me, my own portfolio did slightly better than that, thanks largely to a few of my best stocks.

Like most portfolios, mine had both winners and losers in 2025.

Today, I’ll discuss two of my top performers and explain why I decided to invest in them.

My two best stocks of 2025

Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM)

First up, we have Newmont Corporation. This ASX gold miner is an accidental position in my portfolio, arriving as a result of the US-based Newmont taking over my old position in Newcrest Mining in 2023.

When I bought Newcrest shares a few years ago, it was due to a belief that the gold price was undervalued and that geopolitical and economic tensions could push it higher. Perhaps unfortunately, this thesis has played out, with gold reaching several new record highs in 2025.

As a result, the Newmont share price exploded last year. It rose from $59.54 a share in January to $150.20 by the end of December. That’s a gain worth a whopping 152.27%, making it the best stock in my portfolio in 2025. The four dividends that Newmont paid out last year boost that return even further.

Normally, I don’t like to play commodities stocks. However, I view Newmont as a hedge, or insurance, position in my portfolio. I am happy to keep it for the time being, despite its blowout performance last year, given the ongoing uncertainties in the global economy.

Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ: GOOGL)

My second-best stock in 2025 is none other than an American stock – the Google-owner Alphabet. Alphabet’s near-monopoly as the gatekeeper of the internet attracted me to this company years ago. Its other ventures, which range from YouTube and Google Workspace to the self-driving company Waymo, are added bonuses.

Between January and April last year, the Alphabet share price dropped close to 30%, largely due to concerns that AI tools were about to eat its lunch. I thought these fears were overblown, given the leading role that Alphabet’s own Gemini AI platform was taking. When the company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio got below 17 in April, I thought it was a huge opportunity to pick up even more shares of a company that is still growing at an incredible pace.

That dip didn’t last long, and by the end of the year, Alphabet was up to US$313 a share. That was 65.35% higher than the US$189.30 it started 2025 at, as well as 122.7% above the 52-week low of US$140.53 it hit in April.

The post These were my 2 best stocks of 2025 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday
• 10 best ASX 200 large-cap shares of 2025
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday
• Here’s how the US Magnificent Seven stocks performed in 2025
• This ASX gold giant jumped almost 5% on Wednesday. Here’s why

Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has positions in Alphabet and Newmont. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Alphabet. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Alphabet. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

When I think about stocks I could be comfortable holding through multiple market cycles, Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS) is one that consistently makes the list. 

It is not a high-growth story, and it probably never will be. But for long-term investors, especially those focused on income and resilience, I think Telstra has several qualities that make it worth holding well beyond 2026 and into the next decade.

Here are five reasons I would be happy to hold Telstra shares until 2030.

1. A defensive business that still matters

Telstra sits at the centre of Australia’s communications infrastructure. Mobile, broadband, enterprise connectivity, and digital infrastructure are not optional services. They are essential. That gives Telstra a level of defensiveness that many ASX shares simply do not have.

Even during economic slowdowns, consumers and businesses tend to prioritise staying connected. For me, that makes Telstra a useful stabiliser in a diversified portfolio, particularly when markets become volatile.

2. An attractive and relatively reliable dividend

At current prices, Telstra shares offer a dividend yield of around 4%. That may not sound extraordinary, but in the context of a large-cap defensive stock, I think it is appealing.

More importantly, Telstra’s dividend has been supported by improving earnings, disciplined cost control, and capital management initiatives such as share buybacks. While dividends are never guaranteed, Telstra’s recent financial performance suggests management is focused on maintaining shareholder returns while still investing in the business.

3. Network leadership remains a genuine advantage

Telstra continues to invest heavily in its mobile and fixed networks. Management has been clear about the importance of network quality, reliability, and coverage as a competitive advantage.

For long-term investors, this matters. Telecommunications is capital-intensive, and not every competitor can match Telstra’s scale or balance sheet. I see this ongoing investment as a way for Telstra to protect its market position rather than chase risky growth.

4. A clear strategy heading toward 2030

Telstra’s Connected Future 30 strategy is focused on connectivity, digital infrastructure, and treating the network as a product in its own right. I like that the strategy is not built on heroic assumptions about new revenue streams. Instead, it emphasises execution, efficiency, and getting more value from assets Telstra already owns.

I am not assuming this strategy will automatically succeed. But I do think the direction is sensible and aligned with Telstra’s strengths, which reduces the risk of unpleasant surprises. It also has a strong track record after executing its T22 and T25 strategies successfully.

5. A role in a long-term portfolio

I don’t see Telstra Group shares as one to trade in and out of based on short-term news. For me, it fits better as a long-term holding that provides income, resilience, and exposure to essential infrastructure.

By 2030, Australia is likely to be even more dependent on high-quality connectivity. While the competitive landscape may evolve, I find it hard to imagine a scenario where Telstra becomes irrelevant.

Foolish Takeaway

Telstra is unlikely to be the most exciting ASX share in any given year. But when I look at defensiveness, dividends, infrastructure ownership, and strategic clarity, I think it earns its place as a long-term hold. 

For investors who value stability alongside income, I think holding Telstra shares until 2030 is a reasonable and considered choice rather than a bold gamble.

The post 5 reasons to hold Telstra shares until 2030 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• How I’d build a $1,000-a-month passive income from ASX shares
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• Expecting a down year for the ASX? Here’s 3 ASX defensive shares to target
• My 10 top stocks to buy to start the New Year off right
• How I’d build a growing passive income stream from ASX shares over 15 years

Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Telstra Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Passive income does not have to mean complex strategies or years of guesswork.

Sometimes, it comes down to owning a well-run business, letting management do the hard work, and allowing dividends to land in your account while you focus on other things.

The ASX has no shortage of stocks that pay dividends, but only a handful combine income, growth, and balance sheet strength in a way that appeals to long-term investors.

One ASX dividend stock, in particular, is catching the attention of analysts right now. And if forecasts are on the mark, it could offer both a solid income stream and meaningful upside from here.

Which ASX dividend stock?

The stock in question is Universal Store Holdings Ltd (ASX: UNI). It is a specialty youth fashion retailer with a growing national footprint and a portfolio of brands that continue to resonate with its target demographic.

Despite a tougher retail environment, the company has continued to deliver solid sales growth, expand margins, and roll out new stores. Its focus on private label products, disciplined cost control, and selective store expansion has helped support profitability even as consumer conditions have fluctuated.

Importantly for income investors, Universal Store operates with a strong balance sheet and a high payout ratio, which underpins its ability to return cash to shareholders.

$860 of passive income

Universal Store shares are currently trading at $8.15. At that price, buying 2,000 shares would require an investment of $16,300.

According to a note out of Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG), the ASX stock is expected to pay total fully franked dividends of 43 cents per share in FY 2026.

If those estimates are accurate, 2,000 shares would generate $860 in cash dividends over the financial year. That equates to a forecast dividend yield of just over 5%, before the benefit of franking credits.

For investors seeking income that is backed by earnings rather than financial engineering, that is a good starting point.

Why Macquarie is bullish

Macquarie currently rates the ASX stock as outperform with a $10.20 price target.

The broker believes the market is undervaluing its shares at current levels. It said:

Outperform. Strong sales growth, improving consumer demand environment & increased conversion + penetration into private label product, alongside ongoing store rollout supporting network sales growth. Valuation: Target price unchanged at $10.20. Stock appears attractively priced, given strong sales growth & GM expansion – trading in line with long run average PE-Rel.

Based on Macquarie’s price target, Universal Store shares offer potential upside of around 25% from the current share price.

This means that if you were to buy 2,000 units in this ASX dividend stock, they would have a market value of $20,400 if Macquarie is on the money with its recommendation. That’s more than $4,000 greater than the price you would pay to buy them today.

The post Buy 2,000 shares of this top ASX dividend stock for $860 in passive income appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Universal Store. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Universal Store. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Shares in Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) are under pressure on Thursday.

This comes after the global mining giant released an update outlining its key results and dividend dates for 2026.

At the time of writing, the ASX heavyweight’s share price is down 2.90% to $148.21. The move suggests investors are focused on broader market and commodity trends rather than today’s largely administrative update.

While today’s update does not change guidance or dividend policy, it provides important clarity for income-focused investors and sets the calendar for one of the ASX’s most closely watched dividend payers.

Let’s take a closer look.

What Rio Tinto announced

According to the release, Rio Tinto confirmed its key financial reporting and dividend dates for the 2026 calendar year.

The company will release its full-year 2025 results on Thursday, 19 February 2026. As usual, this announcement is expected to include detailed updates on earnings, cash flow, balance sheet strength, capital expenditure, and shareholder returns.

Importantly for investors, Rio Tinto also confirmed that its final dividend for 2025, subject to board approval, will be announced alongside those full-year results.

Following that announcement, Rio Tinto shares are scheduled to trade ex-dividend on 5 March 2026, with the record date set for 6 March 2026. Eligible shareholders can then expect the dividend payment to be made on 16 April 2026.

Looking further ahead, the company will announce its 2026 half-year results on 29 July 2026. That update will include the declaration of the interim dividend for 2026, with shares expected to trade ex-dividend on 13 August 2026 and the payment scheduled for 24 September 2026.

Why this matters for investors

Rio Tinto is one of the ASX’s largest dividend payers, and its distributions are closely tied to commodity prices, operating costs, and capital expenditure decisions.

For income investors, knowing the ex-dividend and payment dates well in advance is critical for portfolio planning, particularly for those managing cash flow or tax outcomes.

For the broader market, the February results will also serve as a key checkpoint on iron ore demand, Chinese steel production, and how management is navigating a softer commodity pricing environment.

What to watch next

While today’s announcement has had little direct impact on the share price, investors are also digesting a separate update confirming preliminary merger discussions with Glencore. Management stressed that talks are at an early stage and that there is no certainty that a transaction will proceed.

Between now and February, attention is likely to remain on commodity prices, Chinese demand signals, and any further updates on potential corporate activity.

I will be watching this one closely as the February results approach.

The post Rio Tinto locks in key 2026 dates. What investors should watch next appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Rio Tinto shares sink 6% on Glencore merger bombshell
• Rio Tinto confirms preliminary merger talks with Glencore
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• With the copper price hitting a new record, how can you get exposure?

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) shares are marching higher today.

Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) gold stock closed yesterday trading for $24.60. In late morning trade on Friday, shares are changing hands for $25.01 apiece, up 1.7%.

For some context, the ASX 200 is up 0.1% at this same time, while the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index (ASX: XGD) is up 1.5%.

Despite today’s lift, Northern Star shares remain in the red in 2026, having yet to fully recover from the 8.6% plunge on 2 January.

Why did Northern Star shares kick off 2026 with a whimper?

Although many Aussie investors opted to take an extended New Year’s holiday break, the ASX was open on Friday, 2 January.

And Northern Star shares got pummelled after the miner reported gold sales of around 348,000 ounces for the December quarter. That came in below market expectations amid a series of equipment failures and unplanned maintenance at Northern Star’s production sites over the quarter.

Management also rattled investors after downgrading Northern Star’s FY 2026 gold sales guidance to between 1.6 million and 1.7 million ounces. That was down from previous gold sales guidance of 1.7 million ounces to 1.85 million ounces.

What did the ASX 200 gold stock report?

Northern Star shares are pushing higher today after the miner responded (after market close on Thursday) to an ASX Aware letter questioning the timing and amount of information the company had about its likely gold production and cost outlook prior to the 2 January announcement.

The company noted that in the 2 January release, it disclosed that lower gold sales during the December quarter are expected to impact its annual cost guidance.

As for why Northern Star didn’t provide the market with specifics on cost guidance, today the miner said, “However, any impact on annual cost guidance is not yet known to NST because the company requires further, more complete information that is not yet available to it.”

The miner added, “Accordingly, the likelihood of any impact and its extent was not capable of being disclosed in the announcement.”

The ASX also asked when Northern Star first became aware of the information that led to its FY 2026 gold production downgrade.

The miner replied:

On 1 January 2026 … NST received actual operational and production figures for the December quarter and was in a position to consider – on a reasonably informed basis – whether softer operational performance in that quarter was, having regard to operational performance and actual production in the September quarter prior and expected operational and production outcomes (including ongoing or potential, new challenges to those outcomes) for the balance of FY26, likely to cause a material variation in NST’s published annual production guidance.

There you have it.

Despite a shaky start to 2026, Northern Star shares remain up 51.1% over 12 months, not including dividends.

The post Buying Northern Star shares? Here’s the latest on the gold miner’s production woes appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday
• 10 best ASX 200 large-cap shares of 2025
• Why this top-tier ASX gold stock is sliding again this week
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday
• Buy, hold, sell: How does Morgans rate these ASX shares?

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Shares in Energy Transition Minerals Ltd (ASX: ETM) were 25% higher at a fresh 12-month high on Friday morning after the company announced it had appointed advisers in the US.

Energy Transition Minerals has a suite of offshore assets in the critical minerals space, including the large-scale Kvanefjeld rare earths project in Greenland, where it is locked in a legal battle with the Greenland government over its rights to an exploitation licence for the project.

The company recently told the ASX in a statement that the matter would return to court on January 12.

The company also has lithium projects in Canada and a tin and rare earths project in Spain.

Aiming for a US listing

Energy Transition Metals said in a statement to the ASX on Friday that it had appointed Ballard Partners as strategic advisors in the US.

As the company explained:

Ballard Partners’ mandate will include advising on public policy and regulatory issues which shape the global rare earths supply chain, with a focus on long-term value creation for shareholders and supporting ETM’s role as a responsible commercial participant in critical minerals markets. The appointment reflects Ballard Partners’ extensive experience advising clients in the critical minerals sector on how to protect and advance their strategic interests. Ballard’s expertise in the critical minerals policy space, and the firm’s close connections with key decisionmakers in Washington, underscores its capability to advance ETM’s engagement strategy with US investors and strengthen the Company’s international position as a commercial entity.

The appointment follows the company’s announcement in late December that it had appointed Cohen & Company Capital Markets, which would be advising it on seeking a listing on the Nasdaq Stock Exchange in the US.

Energy Transition Minerals Managing Director Daniel Mamadou said on Friday:

As we look to expand our engagement with US stakeholders and explore ways to list on Nasdaq, it is essential that we have leading specialists to guide us through the unique challenges of this market. Appointing local public affairs experts will help ensure that we have the right support to navigate regulatory and investor relationships, accelerating our North American engagement and furthering our international strategy.

Greenland has been in the news again this week, with US President Donald Trump again reiterating that the US needs the island nation for its defence ambitions.

Energy Transition Minerals shares were 25% higher at a new 12-month high of 20 cents early on Friday.

The company was valued at $317.1 million at the close of trade on Thursday.

The post Which rare earths company, with a major project in Greenland, has seen a share price uplift on new US move? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.