Author: openjargon

Cue Energy Resources Ltd (ASX: CUE) has made a brief reply to its shareholders about a takeover bid lobbed by Horizon Oil Ltd (ASX: HZN), basically telling them to sit tight for the moment.

Horizon on Monday launched a takeover bid for Cue, offering 0.8 cents in cash and 0.5625 Horizon shares for each Cue share under the deal, which Horizon said came to an implied value of 14.3 cents for each Cue share.

Cue shares came out of a trading halt this morning, and jumped more than 9% to be changing hands for 14.2 cents.

No decision as yet

The company’s board also put out a statement about the takeover offer, which didn’t shed much light on whether they thought the proposed deal was fair or not.

The Cue release to the market on Wednesday morning simply said that the board was considering the offer and that shareholders did not have to do anything at this point.

The Cue Board added:

The Cue board has appointed an Independent Board Committee (IBC), consisting of its current independent directors, Peter Hood AO, Greg Bishop and Ric Malcolm, to evaluate and respond to the Horizon takeover offer. The IBC, together with its independent advisers, is currently assessing the proposed offer and will keep shareholders informed as appropriate.

Deal to provide scale

Horizon Chairman Bruce Clement said in a statement when the bid was launched that the tie-up of the two companies made sense.

The Horizon board believes that, if Horizon acquires 100% of the Cue shares on issue, potential synergies will be available to the combined group, including from the consolidation of overlapping joint venture interests and more efficient joint venture management. The combination of Horizon and Cue, if Horizon acquires 100% of Cue shares, may unlock up to $2 million of annualised synergies. Horizon expects that the majority of these cost synergies, if realised, would be progressively achieved over approximately 12-18 months following successful offer completion.

Mr Clement said the companies had a long-standing relationship, having been joint venture partners in the Maari field for more than 20 years, “and more recently through Horizon’s 2024 acquisition of a 25% interest in the Mereenie field in Australia, in which Cue holds a 7.5% interest”.

He added that if the companies came together it would create an ASX oil and gas company with nine producing assets across five countries in Southeast Asia and Australia.

Horizon shares were 3.8% lower at 25.5 cents on Wednesday morning.

The post This junior oil and gas company has responded to a takeover bid appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Which junior oil and gas company has just fielded a takeover bid?

Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Investing only in Australian shares can leave a portfolio heavily concentrated.

The local market is dominated by banks and miners, which means investors may miss out on many of the world’s fastest-growing industries.

Fortunately, it is easy to gain global exposure without leaving the ASX boards.

Exchange traded funds (ETFs) make it possible to access hundreds or even thousands of international stocks with a single investment.

Here are three ASX ETFs that could make global investing simple.

Vanguard MSCI Index International Shares ETF (ASX: VGS)

The first ASX ETF to consider is the Vanguard MSCI Index International Shares ETF.

This fund provides exposure to more than 1,000 shares across major developed markets including the United States, Europe, and Japan. By owning this fund, investors gain access to a broad mix of industries and global leaders.

The portfolio includes companies such as Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), and Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), alongside well-known international brands like Nestlé (SWX: NESN) and Toyota Motor (TYO: 7203).

Rather than trying to pick individual global winners, the Vanguard MSCI Index International Shares ETF offers a diversified approach that captures the performance of large international businesses as a group.

Vanguard FTSE Asia ex-Japan Shares Index ETF (ASX: VAE)

Another ASX ETF that can help investors look beyond Australia is the Vanguard FTSE Asia ex-Japan Shares Index ETF.

This fund focuses on Asia’s emerging and developing economies. Its holdings include major regional companies such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE: TSM), Tencent Holdings (SEHK: 700), and Samsung Electronics.

These businesses operate at the centre of industries like semiconductor manufacturing, ecommerce, and digital services across rapidly growing economies.

Asia’s expanding middle class, rising technology adoption, and increasing consumer spending are powerful forces that could drive long-term growth across the region. This fund was recently recommended by analysts at Vanguard.

Betashares Global Quality Leaders ETF (ASX: QLTY)

A final ASX ETF worth considering is the Betashares Global Quality Leaders ETF.

It focuses on companies with strong financial characteristics. The fund screens for businesses with high returns on equity, stable earnings, and low financial leverage.

Current holdings include companies such as Intuit (NASDAQ: INTU), ASML Holding (NASDAQ: ASML), and Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO). These businesses operate in areas like financial software, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and global healthcare.

By targeting companies with strong balance sheets and durable profitability, the strategy aims to capture global growth while emphasising business quality. This fund was recently recommended by analysts at Betashares.

The post The easy way to invest globally is with these ASX ETFs appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended ASML, Apple, Intuit, Microsoft, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, and Tencent. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended Johnson & Johnson, Nestlé, and Novo Nordisk. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended ASML, Apple, Microsoft, and Vanguard Msci Index International Shares ETF. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is adding a lot of uncertainty to the stock market. How are particular ASX shares going to navigate industry changes in the coming years? How much will AI be adopted by households and businesses for particular tasks? Time will tell.

It’s hard to say for sure how this will play out, including the question of the data centre roll-out (with pushback from certain communities stopping data centres from being built in their area).

I’ve deliberately focused on ASX share investments I have confidence in for the long-term, even if things do change. I can sleep well with these businesses.

MFF Capital Investments Ltd (ASX: MFF)

Both of the businesses that I’m going to highlight can give investors sector exposure flexibility.

MFF is an investment business called a listed investment company (LIC). It has the mandate to look across the world for opportunities to invest in. That gives it a wide search zone for finding good ideas.

It’s not forced to hold a certain shares in an index, regardless of whether or not their outlook is challenging. MFF aims to own competitively advantaged businesses with good potential for longer-term earnings growth. It can buy shares it likes and sell out of businesses that it no longer wants to own.

This strategy has resulted in MFF owning investments like Alphabet, Amazon and Meta Platforms. These are some of the businesses that are at the forefront of developing and offering AI. In other words, they could potentially be beneficiaries of AI.

Regardless of how things may change with AI, MFF can put its money towards areas of the market that it believes have a promising long-term future.

I like that it’s paying a growing dividend because that means I can benefit from owning shares and the increasing underlying value without having to sell the shares.

Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (ASX: SOL)

Soul Patts is another ASX share that I have a high sense of security with.

It’s an investment house that has been operating for 120 years. Over the years, it has divested a number of its holdings, but it has also made numerous investments to diversify its portfolio.

I like the ASX share’s portfolio with how it’s invested in a number of areas that are fairly unrelated to AI and technology. It’s invested in areas like resources, telecommunications, agriculture, swimming pools and more. The company is also invested in a uranium miner, which could benefit from the growth in energy demand.

The business has already been around for decades and I think it will be around for decades to come thanks to the investment flexibility and how it focuses on assets with defensive cash flows.

Soul Patts also steadily grows its dividend for shareholders, which is a pleasing way to remain invested for the long-term in the business and benefit from increasing profits without needing to sell any shares.

The post Why I’m betting big on these 2 ASX shares in the age of AI appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has positions in Mff Capital Investments and Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Company Limited. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Company Limited. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Company Limited. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Mff Capital Investments. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Endeavour Group Ltd (ASX: EDV) shares are falling in early trade on Wednesday.

At the time of writing, the ASX 200 stock is down 3% to $3.85.

This follows the release of the drinks giant’s half-year results before the market.

ASX 200 stock tumbles on results day

For the 27 weeks ended 4 January 2026, Endeavour reported group sales of $6.7 billion, representing a 0.9% increase on the prior corresponding period.

However, profitability declined during the period. The company reported a 6.7% decline in underlying net profit after tax to $278 million and a 17.1% decline in statutory net profit after tax to $247 million.

Management notes that its underlying earnings landed at the upper end of the company’s guidance range.

Underlying cash realisation remained strong at 165%, supported by improved working capital management.

In light of its profit decline, the Endeavour board has cut its fully franked interim dividend by 13.6% to 10.8 cents per share. This represents a payout ratio of approximately 70% of underlying earnings.

What happened during the half?

Endeavour’s retail segment, which includes Dan Murphy’s and BWS, generated sales of $5.5 billion, up by 0.2% year on year.

Encouragingly, trading momentum improved during the second quarter. Combined Dan Murphy’s and BWS sales increased 2.2% during this period, with December delivering a record month of sales for the group.

Online performance was particularly strong, with digital sales rising 35.1% to $608 million, representing 11.3% of combined Dan Murphy’s and BWS sales.

Despite this sales growth, retail profitability declined due to price investment and elevated promotional activity across the liquor market. This saw retail underlying EBIT fall 11.6% to $327 million.

The ASX 200 stock’s hotels business performed strongly. Hotel sales increased 4.4% to $1.2 billion, supported by growth in gaming revenue, food and bar transactions, and refurbished venues. Underlying EBIT for the segment rose 5% to $275 million.

Endeavour also continued investing in its hotel network during the half, completing 21 venue renewals and installing over 800 new electronic gaming machines.

Commenting on the half, the ASX 200 stock’s managing director and CEO, Jayne Hrdlicka, said:

We are pleased to report that the Group has delivered a first half earnings result that demonstrates the strength in our customer franchise as we restart top line growth in Retail. In a challenging market, our increased focus on value and price leadership has been embraced by our customers and is delivering both sales growth and market share gains.

Our Hotels business continues to improve its performance, supported by positive trends in food and bar transactions and growth in gaming revenue driven by targeted investment in refurbishments and new EGMs.

Outlook

Looking ahead, Endeavour revealed that early second-half trading has been positive.

Sales growth for the first seven weeks of the second half was 1.3% in Retail and 4.5% in Hotels.

However, the company cautioned that consumer spending remains uncertain due to ongoing inflation and higher interest rates.

Hrdlicka commented:

Looking forward, we are excited about the next phase for Endeavour as we complete our strategy work and begin the process of getting early opportunities ready for implementation. We will share this work with the market at our Investor Day when the detail around the plan is more complete. The Group has a unique asset portfolio, a large and loyal customer base and some of Australia’s most trusted retail brands.

I am confident that we now have the management team and right strategy to leverage our scale and market leadership, compete to win and unlock value for our shareholders.

The post Dan Murphy’s owner Endeavour tumbles on results day appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Endeavour Group earnings: NPAT drops as sales rise; interim dividend declared

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Endeavour Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Now could be the time to buy ALS Ltd (ASX: ALQ) shares.

That’s the view of analysts at Bell Potter, who believe this ASX 200 stock could offer good returns.

What is the broker saying?

Bell Potter has been looking at the testing services company’s markets and was pleased with what it saw. It explains:

Major & Intermediate (M&I) CY26 exploration budgets: Our proxy for M&I exploration spend is indicating expansion of 24% in CY26. For context, we have not seen this level of growth since CY21-22. Majors have historically comprised 60-80% of total geochemistry samples processed through the cycle.

The broker also highlights that junior equity raisings are growing strongly, which bodes well for demand from that side of the market. It adds:

R6M Junior equity raising grew 131% YoY in Feb’26, the 17th consecutive month of positive YoY growth. We expect Juniors to increasingly deploy raised capital over CY26 into exploration activities. Juniors typically comprise 20-40% of total geochemistry samples processed through the cycle.

But it isn’t just mining. Food testing services demand has been strong. It adds:

1) Food testing services performed strongly, with peers reporting mid-single to double-digit organic revenue growth driven by strong demand for contaminants and safety testing (particularly in Europe); and 2) Environment testing organic revenue growth was mixed (low to mid-single digit), with postponement of environmental testing programs reported in North America.

Should you buy this ASX 200 stock?

According to the note, Bell Potter has retained its buy rating on the ASX 200 stock with an improved price target of $28.00.

Based on its current share price of $25.59, this implies potential upside of 9.5% for investors over the next 12 months.

In addition, a 1.6% dividend yield is expected over the period, lifting the total potential return to approximately 11%.

Commenting on its buy recommendation, the broker said:

We maintain our Buy recommendation and upgrade our Target Price to $28.00/sh (previously $25.00/sh), reflecting the model changes mentioned above. ALQ enters CY26 with strengthening industry tailwinds. Major and Intermediate clients have guided to higher exploration spend in CY26, supported by significant FCF growth in an elevated precious and base metal price environment.

In addition, we are yet to see meaningful deployment of the record-breaking Junior equity raising trend observed over the past 12 months. These conditions are reminiscent of the prior up-cycle years of CY21-22 when Commodities delivered revenue growth of >30% p.a. As such, we view consensus expectations as conservative, implying Commodities delivering revenue growth of 14% in CY26.

The post Broker say this ASX 200 stock could be a top buy appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• 7 ASX All Ords shares finish earnings season on a 52-week high

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Shares in Neuren Pharmaceuticals Ltd (ASX: NEU) have been under pressure in the past few months, so it’s a good time to take a step back and see what the experts think about the way forward.

The analyst team at Macquarie have an outperform rating on the stock and a bullish share price target, which we’ll get to shortly.

Firstly, let’s look at the news that has been coming out of the company recently.

Solid profit result

Neuren in late February reported its full-year financial results, showing it had generated $65 million in royalty income and a profit after tax of $30 million.

The royalty income came from the company’s Daybue drug, with the royalty figure up 15% from 2024.

Neuren said it had now earned $510 million from Daybue since it was launched in 2023, and the company had $296 million in cash and short-term investments on hand at the end of December.

The company had also completed a $50 million share buyback and was starting another one, kicking off on March 2.

Neuren Chief Executive Officer John Pilcher said it was a formative year for the company.

He added:

In 2025 we achieved a critical milestone for Neuren’s value creation strategy with the commencement of our Koala Phase 3 clinical trial of NNZ-2591 in Phelan McDermid syndrome. There is so much to look forward to this year as we continue to execute that program towards a New Drug Application and in parallel advance NNZ-2591 for Pitt Hopkins syndrome and HIE. All of this is self-funded by our growing revenue from Daybue, which has now reached $510 million since launch in 2023. We are very excited to watch the impact of the recent launch of Daybue Stix in the US as a potentially attractive new option for Rett syndrome patients and their families.

The company also said this week that its partner Acadia Pharmaceuticals would request a re-examination of Daybue for marketing approval in Europe, after being knocked back previously.

The drug is approved in the United States, Canada, and Israel, where it represents the first and only treatment approved for Rett syndrome, Neuren said.

Neuren shares looking cheap

The Macquarie team, in a research note sent to clients, said the Daybue royalties were in line with expectations, while noting that the company said a record number of patients were receiving Daybue shipments in the last quarter of the year.

Macquarie has reduced its price target on Neuren shares by $1.10 to $19.10, driven by changes to assumptions around Daybue earnings and the European regulatory process.

This price target, if achieved, would represent a 52.1% return.

The post Macquarie thinks this biotech company’s shares could jump more than 50% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Life360 Inc (ASX: 360) shares swung wildly on Tuesday.

The family safety technology company’s shares were up as much as 15% before ending the day 10% lower.

Is this a buying opportunity for investors? Let’s see what Bell Potter is saying about the tech stock.

What is the broker saying?

Despite what the Life360 share price performance might indicate, Bell Potter notes that the company delivered a result ahead of expectations in FY 2025. It said:

2025 revenue of US$489m was slightly above our forecast of US$488m and VA consensus of US$486m and was top end of the US$486-489m guidance range. Adjusted EBITDA of $93m, however, was a beat versus our forecast of US$90m and VA consensus of US$88m and was also above the US$87-92m guidance range. Cash at year end was US$495m which was ahead of our forecast of US$476m.

The broker was also pleased with Life360’s guidance for FY 2026, which was in line with both the broker’s and consensus estimates. It adds:

Life360 provided guidance for global MAU growth of 20% (already provided), consolidated revenue of US$640-680m (vs BPe US$658m and VA consensus US$656m) and adjusted EBITDA of US$128-138m (vs BPe US$130m and VA consensus US$132m). The company also said “due to timing of investments in initiatives to support our growth, we anticipate adjusted EBITDA to be lightly weighted in the first half of 2026, and heavily weighted in the second half of 2026.”

In light of this, Bell Potter has upgraded its forecasts for 2026 and 2027.

Should you buy Life360 shares?

According to the note, the broker has retained its buy rating on Life360’s shares with a slightly trimmed price target of $40.00 (from $41.50).

Based on its current share price of $20.36, this implies potential upside of almost 100% for investors over the next 12 months.

Bell Potter couldn’t explain Tuesday’s share price weakness but appears to see it as an opportunity for investors to load up on the company’s shares. It said:

We are at a loss to explain the share price reaction today other than the flagged greater skew in earnings this year to H2. But Life360 has a very good history of achieving and often exceeding its guidance so while we expect potentially only modest adjusted EBITDA growth in 1H2026, we do expect a return to very strong growth in 2H2026. We note for comparison purposes that Technology One has also flagged a similar greater earnings skew in FY26.

The post Why Life360 shares could rise 100% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday
• Why Capstone Copper, Life360, Neuren, and St George Mining shares are falling today
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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Life360 and Technology One. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Life360 and Technology One. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Life360. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Technology One. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

While interest rates could be heading higher in 2026, the yields on offer with term deposits are unlikely to overtake what can be found on the Australian share market.

For example, the two ASX dividend stocks named below have been rated as buys and are expected to offer attractive dividend yields in the near term.

In addition, unlike term deposits, these stocks are expected to offer mouth-watering capital gains according to analysts, creating a compelling risk/reward.

Here’s what you need to know about them:

HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (ASX: HDN)

UBS thinks that HomeCo Daily Needs REIT could be an ASX dividend stock to buy.

It is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that focuses on convenience-based retail centres such as supermarkets, pharmacies, and medical clinics. These are assets that tend to have stable tenants and long leases.

The broker believes the company is positioned to pay dividends per share of 9 cents in both FY 2026 and FY 2027. Based on its current share price of $1.27, this would mean dividend yields of 7% for both years.

In addition, UBS sees significant upside on offer with HomeCo Daily Needs REIT’s shares. It has put a buy rating and $1.55 price target on them, which suggests that they could rise 22% over the next 12 months.

IPH Ltd (ASX: IPH)

Another ASX dividend stock that could be a buy according to analysts is IPH.

It is an international intellectual property services group working throughout 26 IP jurisdictions, with clients in more than 25 countries.

IPH has a diverse client base of Fortune Global 500 companies and other multinationals, public sector research organisations, SMEs, and professional services firms.

The team at Morgans remains positive on the company and believes it is well-placed to continue rewarding shareholders with big dividends.

The broker is forecasting fully franked dividends of 38 cents per share in FY 2026 and then 39 cents per share in FY 2027. Based on its current share price of $3.59, this would mean generous dividend yields of 10.6% and 10.9%, respectively.

And like the HomeCo Daily Needs REIT, there is major upside being tipped for this ASX dividend stock.

In response to its half-year results last month, Morgans reaffirmed its buy rating with a trimmed price target of $5.39. This implies potential upside of 50% for investors between now and this time next year.

The post Forget term deposits and buy these ASX dividend stocks appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended HomeCo Daily Needs REIT and IPH Ltd. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

While earnings season always brings volatility, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is actually 1.6% higher than a month ago. 

This means there are plenty of ASX 200 shares that came out the other side well ahead of expectations. 

Three such companies that are enjoying a bull run are:

• Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW)
• Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST)
• Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS)

These ASX 200 giants now sit close to 52-week highs. 

Holders of these stocks might be considering taking profits, while prospective buyers might be concerned they missed their opportunity. 

Here is what experts are saying about these ASX 200 stocks in March. 

Woolworths continues massive recovery

Late last year, Woolworths shares were trading below $26 per share. 

Yesterday, the supermarket giant closed at $36.90. 

That’s good for a recovery of 42% in less than 6 months. 

Woolworths shares got a massive boost last month after the company released its half-year financial report.

The ASX 200 company has seen its share price rise 17% since that release. 

Recent guidance from brokers indicates Woolworths shares are now trading close to fair value. 

A note from Bell Potter following earnings results included an updated price target of $38.25. 

That’s roughly 3.6% higher than yesterday’s closing price, although the recently upgraded dividend may entice some investors. 

Gold still the standard

Northern Star Resources shares have continued to ride the wave of investor confidence in gold.

Gold shares have continued to climb as a safe-haven asset amid global geopolitical uncertainty. 

The materials sector in general was an earnings season winner. 

Northern Star Resources shares are now up 75% in the last 12 months, even with a small dip yesterday. 

The ASX 200 stock closed trading yesterday at $30.71. 

A recent share price target from Bell Potter indicates the share price could reach $35 in the next year, which would be a further 13% climb. 

Woodside hits multi-year highs

Woodside Energy shares closed yesterday at $30.48, which is yet another fresh multi-year high.

Sentiment amongst some experts indicates this could continue as oil prices have spiked to a 4-year high amidst escalating conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran.

However, target prices from brokers vary significantly.

RBC recently retained its buy rating on Woodside shares with a 12-month price target of $31.50.

Citi has a hold stance with a target of $28, and Ord Minnett has a sell rating on Woodside shares with a price target of $24.

The post Can these red hot ASX 200 stocks keep rising? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Want to receive the BHP, Rio Tinto, and Woodside dividends? Here’s what you need to do
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Citigroup is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Woolworths Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN) share price has gone through a hefty bit of turbulence, as the below chart shows. The airline has suffered a decline of 24% from its peak in August 2025.

The business has faced headwinds from a higher oil/fuel price amid the events happening in the Middle East.

But, I’m not afraid to invest when there is uncertainty.

I think it’s important to take into account how the business performed in the recent result and keep in mind it’s not certain the oil price will be impacted for the longer-term. If there is to be a negative hit to Qantas earnings, the share price may already reflect that.

So, I’m going to focus on the operational performance of Qantas and analyst views on the financials when the Qantas share price was trading at $9.67 (it’s lower now – $9.24 at the time of writing).

Solid numbers by the ASX travel share

In a note, UBS highlighted underlying profit before tax (PBT) was up 5% year-over-year and was 1% higher than UBS was expecting. While revenue was slightly lower than expected (but still up 6% year-over-year), this was more than offset by lower operating expenditure, depreciation and amortisation (D&A) and interest expenses.

Qantas’ operating profit (EBIT) was below expectations, Qantas’ international was roughly in line with expectations, and Jetstar and corporate costs were better than expected.

Pleasingly, the base dividend was lifted by 20% to $300 million (or 19.8 cents per share, fully franked), which was 12% higher than UBS was forecasting. Additionally, Qantas’ board decided to announce a $150 million share buyback, though this is a ‘non-recurring’ part of capital returns.

Why the Qantas share price is attractive

UBS said that the market response after that FY26 half-year result, being a 9% decline, was an overreaction. It thought the drop happened because:

(1) incoming expectations of favourable earnings revisions which did not eventuate, mostly due to recent oil price moves; (2) undue attention placed on ‘normal’ earnings seasonality that would have implied consensus downgrades; (3) concerns about the performance of Qantas International, particularly ahead of Sunrise adding material new capacity from next year. However, we are less concerned, with our EPS forecasts and valuation hardly changed.

UBS’ projection of Qantas’ profit suggests the business could make $1.75 billion of net profit in FY26 and $1.9 billion in FY27. That implies the business is currently valued at 8x FY26’s estimated earnings.

The broker has a price target of $11.60 on the airline at the time of writing, suggesting an appealing double-digit return over the next year. If the fuel price does stay higher for longer, the airline can pass on those costs onto customers.

The post The Qantas share price is down 24% since its peak, is it a buy? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.