Author: openjargon

Picking the right ASX shares is starting to look a little trickier.

New analysis from Global X ETFs found that almost half of the top 300 ASX companies underperformed the broader market during August’s reporting season.

That might sound surprising, especially with the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) spending much of 2026 moving higher.

The benchmark index is currently up more than 2% year to date.

But dig a little deeper and there has been a huge difference between the stocks getting rewarded and those being left behind.

So, why has stock picking become so tough?

No room for misses

August showed just how quickly investors were willing to punish companies that fell short.

Global X senior investment strategist Marc Jocum summed it up pretty well.

“This reporting season was unforgiving,” he said.

And the share price moves back that up.

Around half of ASX 200 companies recorded a daily move of at least 5% during August, making it one of the more volatile reporting periods in recent memory.

It also meant a decent result wasn’t always enough.

If guidance disappointed or the market had been expecting more, investors were quick to sell.

There was also a big gap in where the earnings growth came from.

Although headline earnings growth was the strongest in 4 years, much of that was driven by resources. But if you take mining stocks out of the equation, earnings growth fell back to single digits.

Winners and losers

There was also a pretty big divide between sectors.

Materials shares rose around 12% during August, while healthcare jumped almost 19%, its best month in more than 25 years.

Consumer discretionary, property and the big banks went the other way, with all 3 areas struggling.

There was some caution about what comes next, with forward earnings estimates being cut across parts of the market.

AI keeps coming up

Another thing that kept popping up during reporting season was artificial intelligence (AI).

Global X found around 60% of companies mentioned AI on earnings calls, with most talking about how it could improve productivity.

That’s a pretty big number and shows AI is no longer just a topic for tech companies.

But Jocum’s broader takeaway was probably the more important one for investors.

He said “the market is no longer a rising tide lifting all boats”.

That feels pretty accurate after August.

There are still plenty of opportunities on the ASX, but investors may need to be a lot more selective about which stocks they back.

The post Aussie stocks are getting harder to pick. Here’s why appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• 2 ASX shares with dividend yields above 8%
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday
• Could this exciting growth stock be set to triple? Morgans thinks it can
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Reaching $1 million in superannuation would be a major milestone.

Once retirement arrives, though, the size of the balance is only part of the picture. The next question becomes what sort of lifestyle that money could support and how long it might need to last.

For someone hoping to draw $50,000 a year, there are a few things I would think about before assuming the numbers will work.

Start with the withdrawal rate

Taking $50,000 from a $1 million super balance represents a 5% annual withdrawal.

On the surface, that does not look unreasonable. If the portfolio earned an average return of 5% after fees, a $50,000 withdrawal would roughly match those returns in the first year. Stronger investment returns could allow the balance to grow, while weaker years could see it fall.

Of course, markets do not deliver the same return every year.

A portfolio might rise strongly one year and fall the next. That means the sustainability of a $50,000 annual income would depend on what the investments earn over many years, rather than whether they happen to generate 5% in any individual year.

Which ASX shares would I buy?

One way to generate $50,000 of income a year would be to build a portfolio averaging a dividend yield of 5%.

There are certainly ASX shares capable of contributing meaningful dividend income, but I would not force the entire portfolio into high-yield investments just to hit that figure.

I would rather own a mixture of income and growth investments.

APA Group (ASX: APA), for example, could provide exposure to infrastructure and regular dividends. Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) offers another source of income while retaining opportunities to grow across its global businesses.

I would also want investments with stronger capital growth potential, potentially including international shares through an exchange-traded fund (ETF) such as the Vanguard MSCI Index International Shares ETF (ASX: VGS).

Some years, dividends might cover much of the $50,000. In others, I would be comfortable selling a small portion of the portfolio to cover the balance.

Retirement income does not have to come entirely from dividends.

Inflation changes the calculation

Inflation is another challenge if retirement lasts 20 or 30 years.

A $50,000 annual income today will not buy the same amount decades from now.

If living costs rise by 2.5% each year, for example, an investor would eventually need considerably more than $50,000 just to maintain the same spending power.

That is one reason I would keep a meaningful allocation to growth assets after retiring.

If the portfolio can continue increasing in value over time, withdrawals may also be able to rise without putting as much pressure on the remaining balance.

Foolish takeaway

So, could $1 million in superannuation provide $50,000 a year in retirement?

I think it could.

A 5% starting withdrawal is not an extreme figure, but I would want the portfolio to keep working well beyond the first few years of retirement.

For me, the stronger approach would combine income, long-term growth, diversification, and some flexibility around withdrawals. That gives the $1 million balance a good chance of supporting a comfortable income while still having plenty left to fund the years ahead.

The post Could a $1 million superannuation balance provide $50,000 a year in retirement? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• How much passive income can I earn off a $550,000 superannuation balance?
• Top 3 ASX dividend shares to buy if interest rates go up
• Top 3 ASX shares to buy with $3,000 in September
• How much is needed in superannuation for $3,000 in weekly passive income?
• Are these top Vanguard ETFs still a buy in September?

Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Apa Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Macquarie Group and Vanguard Msci Index International Shares ETF. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The Austal Ltd (ASX: ASB) share price is in focus today after announcing it has received a non-binding offer from a Wildcat Resources Ltd (ASX: WC8) led syndicate to buy Austal USA for between US$1.25 and US$1.35 billion. The deal would see Austal’s US operations continue independently under the Austal brand.

What did Austal report?

• Received US$1.25–1.35 billion non-binding offer for Austal USA from Wildcat syndicate
• Offer is subject to four weeks of due diligence
• Proposed transaction on a cash free, debt free basis
• Wildcat intends to retain the Austal brand and US operations as a standalone platform

What else do investors need to know?

Austal’s board and advisers are now considering the proposed transaction. There is no guarantee the deal will proceed to a binding agreement, as it’s subject to further due diligence and other standard conditions.

Austal remains Australia’s largest defence exporter and a key partner to the US and Australian governments. In late 2024, it was named Strategic Shipbuilder by the Commonwealth for major Defence projects in Western Australia. The company’s global reach includes shipyards in Australia, the USA, the Philippines, and Vietnam.

What’s next for Austal?

Investors will be watching for updates after Wildcat’s due diligence period. If the deal progresses, Austal could free up significant capital to reinvest in its defence shipbuilding business or return to shareholders, but there’s no certainty yet.

Austal’s core focus remains defence and commercial shipbuilding. The company’s commitment to local and international defence contracts, including strategic work for both the US and Australia, underpins its outlook regardless of the sale outcome.

Austal share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Austal shares have declined 47%, trailing the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 1% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post Austal receives US$1.35bn offer for Austal USA appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Buy, hold, sell: Boss Energy, Austal, Liontown shares

Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips. This article was prepared with the assistance of Large Language Model (LLM) tools for the initial summary of the company announcement. Any content assisted by AI is subject to our robust human-in-the-loop quality control framework, involving thorough review, substantial editing, and fact-checking by our experienced writers and editors holding appropriate credentials. The Motley Fool Australia stands behind the work of our editorial team and takes ultimate responsibility for the content published by The Motley Fool Australia.

Xero Ltd (ASX: XRO) shares are sliding today.

Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) business and accounting software provider closed yesterday trading for $74.25. In morning trade on Wednesday, shares are changing hands for $73.17 apiece, down 1.5%.

For some context, the ASX 200 is up 0.1% at this same time.

Unfortunately for long-term shareholders, today’s underperformance is all too familiar. With today’s intraday losses, Xero shares are down 54.2% over the past 12 months, compared to the 1.4% one-year gain posted by the benchmark index.

Though a more accurate comparison here would be against the S&P/ASX 200 Information Technology Index (ASX: XIJ), which has crashed 40.9% since this time last year.

As you’re likely aware, ASX tech shares were caught up in a broader global sell-down of the tech sector. That came amid the so-called ‘SaaSpocalypse’, which refers to concerns that AI could potentially replace many of the services that Software as a Service (SaaS) companies like Xero provide.

ASX tech stocks have also come under pressure amid rising interest rates. Growth-oriented shares like Xero tend to be priced with higher future earnings in mind. And as interest rates go up, so too does the present cost of investing in those future earnings.

Which brings us back to our headline question.

With the company’s share price having lost more than half its value over the last year, is the ASX 200 tech stock now a good buy?

Xero shares: Buy, hold, or sell?

Gray Perry Wealth Advisers’ Blake Halligan recently analysed the outlook for the embattled ASX 200 tech stock (courtesy of The Bull).

“Xero remains a leading cloud accounting platform, with a dominant position in Australia and New Zealand,” he said.

Halligan added, “Fiscal year 2026 operating revenue increased 31 per cent, supported by 506,000 net customer additions and the Melio Payments acquisition.”

But amid concerns over the integration costs of that acquisition, Halligan issued a hold recommendation on Xero shares.

He concluded:

Melio should aid in revenue growth, but costs associated with its integration contributed to a 27 per cent fall in net profit after tax and a gross margin decline from 89 per cent to 83.9 per cent.

The profitable ANZ and UK businesses offer growth potential and could assist in a continuing share price recovery.

Commenting on Xero’s completed Melio acquisition following the company’s FY 2026 results release, CEO Sukhinder Singh Cassidy said:

We have powerful momentum across our markets, and delivered strong EBITDA growth while absorbing Melio. This has moved us beyond single-job workflows in the US by integrating Melio to unite accounting and payments on one platform.

The post Down 54% in a year, are Xero shares now a buy, hold, or sell? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Top 3 ASX 200 shares to buy in September
• Xero and Megaport: 2 ASX tech shares the market can’t agree on
• Buy, hold, sell: Megaport, Xero, AMP shares
• These ASX 50 shares have lost up to 60%. Is the sell-off overdone?
• How to build a winning ASX share portfolio and create wealth

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Xero. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The Australian healthcare sector has rebounded well over the August reporting season, with Bell Potter analysts saying it was the key sector winner with about a 20% improvement.

Major improvements in stocks, including CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL), Ramsay Healthcare Ltd (ASX: RHC), and Cochlear Ltd (ASX: COH) bolstered the sector, following weakness earlier in the year.

Where does the broker see good value now?

Bell Potter has selected seven ASX healthcare shares as its key picks going forward, some of which it says could more than double in value.

One of these is Clarity Pharmaceuticals Ltd (ASX: CU6), which Bell Potter said could have some big news shortly.

The broker said:

For companies with significant clinical readouts over the near-term, it’s hard to go past CU6 which is expected to deliver topline data from its two PSMA imaging Phase 3 trials in early CY27. The data from these studies should support a New Drug Application for 64Cu SAR bis PSMA in CY27. Once approved, we expect 64Cu SAR bisPSMA will enter the ~US$3b PSMA imaging market with a highly differentiated label claim to the incumbents.

Bell Potter has a speculative buy rating on the shares with a $6.40 price target.

The broker is also predicting solid share price gains for Mesoblast Ltd (ASX: MSB), which has been preforming well since gaining FDA approval for its drug Ryoncil in late 2024.

Bell Potter said Mesoblast was also progressing a lower back pain drug, with a large potential market.

Its price target for Mesoblast is $4.45.

Other companies which are scaling up in the US are Lumos Diagnostic Holdings Ltd (ASX: LDX) and Aroa Biosurgery Ltd (ASX: ARX).

Bell Potter said regarding these two:

LDX is rapidly scaling its commercial channels ahead of its first flu season in North America, while ARX is driving strong direct growth through Myriad and positioning to capitalise on disruption across the outpatient chronic wound market with Symphony. Both remain well positioned in sizeable US growth opportunities.

Bell Potter has a price target of 25 cents on Lumos and $1.09 on Aroa.

The broker also likes Vitrafy Life Sciences Ltd (ASX: VFY), which it said “has recently emerged with the potential to develop dominant positions across various large cryopreservation markets, but particularly in the blood products segment”.

Bell Potter has a price target of $5.15 on Vitrafy.

The broker said Cogstate Ltd (ASX: CGS) delivered “stellar returns” in FY26, “following significant contract wins across an increasingly diverse range of clinical indications and channel partners”.

It has a price target of $3.70 on Cogstate.

And lastly, Bell Potter is also bullish on Pro Medicus Ltd (ASX: PME), which it said “continues to win ever more business in the US”.

Bell Potter has a price target of $226 on Pro Medicus.

The post 7 ASX healthcare stock picks from Bell Potter appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has positions in CSL and Pro Medicus. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL, Cochlear, and Cogstate. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended Pro Medicus. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Cogstate. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL, Cochlear, and Pro Medicus. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

I’d describe Sigma Healthcare Ltd (ASX: SIG) as one of Australia’s top shares for a variety of reasons, and I think right now is a great time to invest.

Most of the company’s profit generation comes through its ownership of the Chemist Warehouse franchise business. It also owns the Amcal and Discount Drug Store businesses.

In my view, Sigma Healthcare is delivering exceptional growth and its outlook is very compelling. Let me run through three very attractive elements.

Strong Australian growth         

The company’s core earnings driver is Australia, where a vast majority of the franchise stores are located. There were 561 Australian Chemist Warehouse stores at the end of FY26, following the addition of 24 locations in FY26.

The Australian segment saw revenue growth of 14.9% to $10.4 billion, with Chemist Warehouse branded like-for-like network sales growth of 13.4% amid continued demand for GLP-1 medicines.

Over the long term, it has franchise network targets of around 900 Chemist Warehouse stores, around 300 Amcal locations, and approximately 150 Discount Drug Stores.

It expects to open 13 Chemist Warehouse-branded stores in the first half of FY27, with 12 refurbishments also planned.

The fact that the business continues to deliver double-digit revenue growth after such a long time says to me that the business can deliver good revenue growth for the foreseeable future.

Exciting international growth

Australia is not the only market where the company is growing. Excitingly, it has a presence in New Zealand, Ireland, the UAE, and UK. It also has a presence in China where it’s focusing on profitable online sales.

In FY26, 20 stores were opened in international markets, with 14 new stores in New Zealand and four new ones in Ireland.

Impressively, sales grew by 45% in Ireland and 20.3% in New Zealand during FY26. Overall, international revenue increased 33% to $421.4 million.

The business is entering the UK market in FY27, which could be another exciting growth market for one of Australia’s top shares. The success in nearby Ireland – which is now profitable – is a good sign for the UK, in my view.

I think the company could expand to other markets in the longer term.

Operating leverage

Not only is the business growing its top line rapidly, but I think profit can increase even faster thanks to its rising profit margins. Remember, it’s normally profit growth rather than revenue growth that can send a share price higher.

The FY26 financials were a great demonstration of its ability to deliver stronger profits.

While overall revenue rose 15.5%, normalised operating profit (EBIT) climbed 20.6% to $1.09 billion, and normalised net profit grew 22.3% to $732.3 million. It also reduced net debt to $663 million.

Australian segment normalised EBIT grew 18.3% and international segment EBIT soared 91.3% to $55.8 million.

I think the strengthening profit margins are a great sign for one of Australia’s top shares to continue becoming more valuable.

After falling 15% since February 2026, the Sigma Healthcare share price is now valued at 35 times FY27’s estimated earnings. I think Sigma Healthcare, one of Australia’s top shares, could be undervalued at this level.

But, it’s not the only stock I’ve got my eyes on.

The post A rare buying opportunity in 1 of Australia’s top shares? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

A $550,000 superannuation balance sits well above the typical Australian average for retirees, but it falls short of what you need for a comfortable retirement lifestyle. 

It’s the middle ground which can act as a solid base, but it’s not quite enough to live off.

But what if you didn’t need to live off your superannuation balance alone? What if your superannuation generated enough passive income to partially, or even fully, support you when you quit work?

So, how much passive income could a $550,000 super balance realistically generate each month?

Let’s take a look.

What passive income can I earn off a $550,000 superannuation balance?

To calculate your passive income, you need to multiply your total superannuation balance by the overall dividend yield of your portfolio.

The tricky part is that the answer varies widely depending on what dividend yield you pick.

So, as your dividend yield increases, the passive income you can earn off your $550,000 superannuation balance also goes up.  

Also note, the figures are based on cash dividends before any tax or franking credit benefits.

What can I earn off a 2% to 3% yielding portfolio?

If your portfolio yields 2% or 3%, you’ll earn around $11,000 or $16,500, respectively.

That’s because $550,000 x 2% = $11,000 per year in dividend payments, and $550,000 x 3% = $16,500 in dividends.

Around this level, you could invest in major long-standing ASX blue-chip companies like Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA), Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES), CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL), or Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG). These all yield around the 2% to 3% level at the time of writing.

What can I earn if my portfolio yields around 4% or 5%?

If your portfolio has a slightly higher dividend yield, closer to 4% or 5%, you could earn a much higher dividend income of around $22,000 or $27,500, respectively.

There are still plenty of good-quality stocks yielding around this level. For example, mining giants BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) and Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO). Major banks National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) and Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) also yield around the 4% to 5% range. As do energy majors Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) and APA Group (ASX: APA). 

What if I want to invest my superannuation in high-yielding shares around 10% or even higher?

If you have the stomach to withstand the volatility and elevated risk, you could earn a much higher passive income from high-yielding stocks.

At a 10% yield, a $550,000 balance could earn about $55,000.

And there are still several options paying around this level too. If you’re after a single stock, then GQG Partners Inc (ASX: GQG) and IPH Ltd (ASX: IPH) both yield above 11% at the time of writing.

Another option is to invest your super into an ETF like the BetaShares Australian Top 20 Equities Yield Maximiser Complex ETF (ASX: YMAX), the BetaShares Global Cybersecurity ETF (ASX: HACK), or the iShares S&P 500 ETF (ASX: IVV). These all yield 10% or higher at the time of writing.

The post How much passive income can I earn off a $550,000 superannuation balance? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Buy, hold, sell: BHP, CSL, CBA shares

Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has positions in BHP Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended BetaShares Global Cybersecurity ETF, CSL, Macquarie Group, Wesfarmers, and iShares S&P 500 ETF. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Apa Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group, CSL, Gqg Partners, IPH Ltd , Macquarie Group, Wesfarmers, and iShares S&P 500 ETF. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) share price has rewarded investors handsomely so far in 2026.

The energy producer’s shares have climbed around 37% since the beginning of the year and are now trading at approximately $8.41, close to a 52-week high.

After such a strong run, I think it is worth asking whether there is still enough value left for investors buying today.

Earnings could move higher

The first thing I would look at is where Santos’ earnings are expected to go from here.

Santos has substantial exposure to natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG), which gives the business opportunities to benefit from continued energy demand across Australia and Asia.

According to consensus estimates, earnings per share are forecast to come in at 60.2 cents in FY26 before increasing to 75.3 cents in FY27 and 77.9 cents in FY28.

Of course, earnings from an energy producer will never be completely predictable. Commodity prices can move quickly, while large projects bring execution and cost risks.

Still, if analysts are close to the mark, the earnings outlook makes today’s share price considerably easier to justify.

What are investors paying?

At $8.41, Santos shares are trading on a P/E ratio of roughly 14 times forecast FY26 earnings.

The valuation drops to around 11 times FY27 earnings and remains close to that level based on the FY28 forecast.

I think that looks quite reasonable.

Santos is a cyclical energy producer, so I would not expect it to command the type of earnings multiple investors might pay for a highly predictable defensive or technology business.

But an earnings multiple of around 11 times does not look demanding if profits rise as currently expected.

Dividends add to the case

There could also be a meaningful income stream for shareholders.

Consensus forecasts point to dividends per share of 41.7 cents in FY26, 49.4 cents in FY27, and 64.4 cents in FY28.

At today’s share price, those estimates imply forward dividend yields of roughly 5%, 5.9%, and 7.7%, respectively.

I would be cautious about assuming the FY28 payment will definitely arrive. Energy earnings can change significantly with commodity prices, and dividends can move with them.

Even so, the forecasts suggest investors may receive a substantial amount of cash while they wait for the longer-term investment case to play out.

What could go wrong?

There is genuine uncertainty to consider.

Oil and LNG prices can weaken, development projects can cost more than expected, and Santos operates in a capital-intensive industry where investment decisions can have consequences for many years.

That means I would want a margin of safety rather than buying the shares purely because forecast earnings are rising.

At around 11 times FY27 earnings, I think there is still one.

Foolish takeaway

The Santos share price has already had an excellent 2026, but I do not think the rally has exhausted the opportunity.

At $8.41, I would describe the shares as good value rather than obviously cheap.

Forecast earnings growth brings the forward valuation down quickly, while the potential dividend income adds another reason to be interested.

For investors comfortable with commodity-price volatility and the risks that come with large energy projects, I think Santos shares are still a buy at current levels.

The post Is the Santos share price still good value after rising 37% in 2026? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

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Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

ASX copper shares finally have the copper price support the bulls have promised for years.

Copper set an all-time high in London this week.

The London Metal Exchange three-month price closed at US$14,415.50 a tonne on Monday, a gain of 0.57%.

The metal has advanced roughly 17% over the past year.

Why the copper price matters for ASX copper shares

Copper is unique among commodities because demand is structural in today’s world.

Electricity grids, data centres, and renewable generation all consume enormous volumes of it.

Supply is the harder half, because new mines take a decade to build.

BHP has been transparent about where it sees the opportunity, describing copper as the engine driving the company’s growth.

The company has a project pipeline across Chile, Australia, and Argentina that it believes can lift copper production by around 40% by FY35.

Copper climbed to record levels on Tuesday while most of the market fell.

The important point for investors is that a record price does not lift every producer equally.

Costs, grades, and operational reliability decide who converts the price into cash.

1. Sandfire Resources Ltd (ASX: SFR)

Sandfire Resources is the purest copper exposure on the ASX and the clearest winner of the three.

Shares closed at $22.50 and are up 82.93% over twelve months.

FY26 was a transformational year, capped by record sales and a much stronger balance sheet.

Revenue rose 41% to US$1,654 million and underlying EBITDA rose 64% to US$867 million.

Net profit jumped 282% to US$354 million on production of 154.2 thousand tonnes of copper equivalent.

The company moved into a net cash position and declared a 35 cent fully-franked final dividend, its first since 2022.

FY27 guidance calls for 150 to 166 thousand tonnes of copper equivalent.

Managing director Brendan Harris had this to say:

We have the right team, we have the right strategy, and we’re producing the commodities the world needs to decarbonise.

2. 29Metals Ltd (ASX: 29M)

29Metals is the cautionary tale in this group.

The shares are down 4.65% over twelve months.

The half-year result showed precisely why a high copper price is not enough on its own.

Revenue rose 12% to $304.9 million, yet the company swung to a net loss of $34.8 million from a $35.3 million profit.

EBITDA collapsed from $112.6 million to $30.5 million and no interim dividend was declared.

The problems are linked to operational events.

Seismic events at Xantho Extended forced a temporary exclusion zone and gutted zinc production at Golden Grove.

Capricorn Copper remains suspended while tailings approvals work through the system.

Finally, a $150 million entitlement offer lifted liquidity to $202.1 million, which buys management time rather than solving anything.

3. BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP)

BHP is a diversified way to buy into the copper thematic.

FY26 was the year copper overtook iron ore inside the business.

BHP produced roughly two million tonnes of copper for a second consecutive year.

Copper contributed more than half of group underlying EBITDA for the first time, out of a group total near US$33 billion.

Net debt finished below US$9 billion and the final dividend was 99 US cents per share, the largest in four years.

The trade-off is dilution of the theme.

Iron ore still matters enormously to BHP, and it is not at a record price.

Foolish takeaway

The copper price is doing what the long-term bulls said it would.

However, the difference in fortunes between Sandfire and 29Metals this year proves not every miner is a buy.

I would rather pay up for a producer already converting a record price into cash than buy the cheapest option on the market.

ASX copper shares have rarely had a better backdrop, and the risk now sits with the companies rather than the commodity.

The post Copper prices just hit a record high. What does this mean for ASX copper shares? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

If you are on the hunt for big returns for your portfolio, then it could be worth checking out the two S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) shares listed below.

That’s because they have been named as buys and tipped to rise up to 45%. Here’s what is being recommended:

Megaport Ltd (ASX: MP1)

This network services company could be an ASX 200 share with significant upside potential according to Morgans.

It was impressed with its performance in FY 2026 and its guidance for the year ahead. As a result, it recently put a buy rating and $25.00 price target on Megaport’s shares. This implies potential upside of approximately 45% from current levels.

Commenting on its recommendation, the broker said:

MP1’s FY26 underlying EBITDA and FY27 EBITDA guidance were above market expectations. Both Network and Compute delivered record growth. At first glance, simple maths suggests MP1’s funding position looks tight. However, there is nearly $500m of additional funding that got lost in translation. We think MP1 ends FY27 with nearly $600m of surplus liquidity (assuming no new deals get signed).

Deals already contracted deliver $620m of annualised contracted EBITDA which means after EBITDA lifts 3x YoY in FY27, it will more than double into FY28, based on deals already signed. We upgrade to a Buy recommendation and $25 target price.

Monadelphous Group Ltd (ASX: MND)

Morgans also sees potential for this ASX 200 share to deliver market-beating returns over the next 12 months.

In response to its results last month, the broker retained its buy rating and $35.80 price target on Monadelphous shares. Based on its current share price of $29.01, this implies potential upside of 23% for investors. It commented:

FY26 was strong with EBITDA +49% YoY and NPAT +60%. Management seemed comfortable talking up the outlook more generally – across iron ore, energy, gold, rare earths and lithium – however expectations for FY27 were tempered by framing it as a consolidation year. While we acknowledge that the 1H27 comp will be difficult (1H26 revenue +45% YoY), the key lead indicators suggest that strong growth will continue into FY27 and beyond, as the E&C order book has more than doubled YoY to nearly $1.2bn (from $570m at FY25). 

MND’s E&C business has never been better positioned to start the year and can capture more of the value chain during this development cycle (civils, NPI, fabrication), with the mega-projects still to be awarded (Nolans, P2000, Hemi and Mt Holland). We maintain our BUY recommendation. Target price unchanged at $35.80.

The post 2 top ASX 200 shares tipped to return 23% to 45% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Megaport. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Megaport. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.