Author: openjargon

If you have a high tolerance for risk and a penchant for small cap ASX shares, then read on!

Listed below are two small caps that Morgans has just given buy ratings to. Here’s what it is recommending this month:

MotorCycle Holdings Ltd (ASX: MTO)

This motorcycle retailer could be a small cap ASX share to buy according to Morgans.

It highlights that MotorCycle Holdings has started FY 2026 strongly, with sales up 19% year to date. And with its margins rising more than expected, this bodes well for its earnings growth in FY 2026. It said:

MTO has commenced FY26 positively, delivering +19% sales growth (+6% organic; +13% inorganic) on better-than-expected gross margins (+85bps on pcp). The Peter Stevens Motorcycles (PSM) turnaround and integration process is taking shape quickly, with MTO driving a return to sales growth in October (+16% on pcp). Organic sales growth of +6% through FY26 (4 mths) was a commendable outcome given weak industry volumes through 3Q CY25 (-6%), leading to further incremental organic market share gains for the group (17.8% vs 15.5% pcp).

Another positive is that Morgans expects the second half of FY 2026 to be even stronger. It adds:

We view a stronger 2H to be driven by a full contribution of PSM (at a normalised run-rate); a seasonally stronger Mojo 4Q; and benefits from the group’s broader initiatives (digital transformation; used volume growth; eCommerce) taking effect. Despite industry conditions remaining cyclically low from a volume and margin perspective, MTO has continued to improve the business, acquiring material scale through PSM, diversifying operations via Mojo, stabilising the cost base and driving organic share gains.

In light of this, Morgans has put a buy rating and $4.50 price target on its shares. This implies potential upside of 20% from current levels. It concludes:

We view the valuation undemanding (~11x FY26F PE; ~5% yield), with a material margin expansion opportunity ahead should volumes turn slightly more favourable. BUY maintained.

Tesoro Gold Ltd (ASX: TSO)

Morgans also thinks that this gold developer could be a buy for investors with a high risk tolerance.

In fact, the broker has named it as its top gold pick in the Americas region thanks to its robust production base case. It said:

We update our TSO model, rolling our valuation forward and adjusting cash position. TSO remains our top gold pick in the Americas, supported by a robust production base case and district-scale resource growth potential that offers potential step-change upside.

And even though its shares have rallied strongly this year, Morgans believes there’s still potential for huge returns over the next 12 months. It has put a speculative buy rating and 32 cents price target on its shares. This is compares to its current share price of just 7.2 cents.

Morgans highlights that its shares are trading at a deep discount to peers on an EV/Resource basis. It adds:

While the share price has performed well, TSO still appears inexpensive relative to peers on an EV/Resource basis, trading at A$54/oz (vs A$176/oz peer average), and on a P/NAV basis at 0.2x vs the peer benchmark of 0.4x. We maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY rating, with a price target of A$0.32ps (previously A$0.27ps).

The post Broker names 2 small cap ASX shares to buy for big returns appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• $20,000 invested in CBA shares a year ago is now worth….
• Here is how Morgans rates the big four ASX 200 bank shares
• Why this ASX All Ords stock could return 40% in a year
• Macquarie reveals ASX 200 share tips in each market sector for 2026
• Here’s the average superannuation balance at age 64 in Australia

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended MotorCycle. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares have climbed 0.225% at the time of writing on Thursday afternoon, to $153.86 a piece. 

Over the past month, the shares have dropped 10.39% after the banking giant’s stock crashed just over 15% between the 6th and the 19th of November. 

The shares are still trading higher than their 52-week low of $140.21, but they’re a long way away from the all-time high of $192 per share reached in June.

So if I bought $20,000 of CBA shares last year, how much are they worth now?

CBA shares are currently trading at a price 2.35% lower than this time last year. This means $20,000 invested 12 months ago would now be worth a total of $19,530.

What caused the latest nosedive?

This month’s share price tumble follows the bank’s quarterly update, posted on 11th November. The bank reported a quarterly cash NPAT of approximately $2.6 billion, with a 1% increase from the previous half-year and a strong CET1 ratio of 11.8%, above regulatory requirements. 

But the results failed to justify CBA’s premium share price valuation, and investors started hitting the sell button in panic.

CBA shares were the third most-traded by CommSec clients last week, too, although this appears to be mostly buying activity.

Is it too late to buy or is there more upside ahead?

Analysts consensus is that the buying opportunity for CBA shares has now passed, with more downside anticipated throughout 2026.

According to TradingView data, out of 15 analysts, 13 have a sell or strong sell rating on the stock. The minimum target price is $96.07, and the maximum is $146. Regardless, both price targets imply a significant potential downside of up to 37.72%, at the time of writing.

Macquarie has an underperform rating on CBA shares with a $106 target price. That’s more than 40.6% below the CBA share price at the time of writing. The broker recently said that there is limited upside potential ahead. 

Analysts at Morgans have a sell rating on CBA shares and a $96.07 target price. At the time of writing, that implies an enormous 40% downside for investors over the next 12 months.

Bell Potter is underweight on CBA shares. The broker said that the bank’s “valuation premium has expanded to an extreme and, in our view, unsustainable level, trading at a P/E multiple that is ~40% above the peer average”.

The post $20,000 invested in CBA shares a year ago is now worth…. appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Here is how Morgans rates the big four ASX 200 bank shares
• Forget CBA shares and check out this buy-rated ASX financial stock
• 3 excellent ASX ETFs for income investors to buy in December
• Buy this ASX bank share instead of the ‘big four’: expert
• Top 10 most-traded ASX shares last week

Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The big four S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) bank shares have experienced their very own market rotation in FY26.

In FY25, Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) was easily the outperformer of the group, with its share price soaring 45% and reaching a record $192 in late June.

This compared to a still impressive 24% lift for Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) shares in FY25, as well as a moderate 8.6% gain for National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) shares, and just a 3.3% bump for the ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) share price.

The trend has reversed in FY26.

ASX 200 bank shares in FY26

ANZ shares are leading the group in FY26, with the share price 21% higher at $35.15, up 0.06% today.

The ANZ share price also reached a new record of $38.93 this month.

The Westpac share price has risen 12% in FY26 to $37.80, down 0.2% today, after setting a new record at $41 this month.

NAB shares have increased 3% to $40.47, up 0.2% today, after also peaking at a new all-time high of $45.25 this month.

Meanwhile, the CBA share price has tumbled 17% to $154.01, up 0.3% today, and is now 20% off its historical peak.

How does Morgans rate the big four bank stocks?

After the big four supplied reports to the market this month, Morgans released new notes on each ASX 200 bank share.

Let’s take a look.

ANZ shares

Morgans has a trim rating on ANZ shares with a 12-month price target of $33.09.

This implies a near 6% fall over the next year.

The broker recapped the ASX 200 bank share’s recent 2H FY25 report:

Earnings were materially below market expectations, albeit consensus may not have fully adjusted for the significant items.

However, 12 month target price lifts 29 cps to $33.09/sh due to CET1 capital outperformance in 2H25.

We recommend clients TRIM into share price strength, with the share price and implied valuation multiples trading at or around all-time highs.

Westpac shares

Morgans says investors overweight on Westpac should sell following the ASX 200 bank share’s strong gains in FY26.

The broker also noted various highlights from Westpac’s 2H FY25 report:

In the 2H25 result we appreciated the strong business lending growth, resilient asset quality, relatively stable underlying NIM, and regulatory capital strength. Cost investment is being made to deliver long-term revenue and cost gains.

With the stock trading around all-time highs but with limited earnings growth over coming years we continue to recommend clients SELL overweight positions.

NAB shares

The broker has a sell rating on NAB and a price target of $31.46.

This implies a more than 20% potential downside over the next 12 months.

Morgans said NAB missed consensus expectations of flat earnings in 2H FY25 and instead reported a 2% decline.

The broker commented:

While NAB has loan growth and revenue momentum heading into 1H26, it also has momentum in costs and showed signs of asset quality deterioration and tightness in regulatory capital. This is likely to see limited (if any) DPS growth and constrain capital management over coming years.

NAB is trading at historical extremes of key valuation metrics. The 2H25 result and earnings outlook doesn’t justify such pricing.

CBA shares

Morgans has a sell rating on CBA shares with a price target of $96.07.

This suggests a near 40% potential downside over the next 12 months (eek!).

CBA recently released its 1Q FY26 update, with the broker commenting:

While the market wasn’t expecting much earnings growth (c.2% for 1H26, and we were more bullish than consensus), growth was weaker than these expectations.

We remain SELL rated on CBA, recommending clients aggressively reduce overweight positions given the risk of poor future investment returns arising from the even-now overvalued share price and low-to-mid single digit EPS/DPS growth outlook.

The post Here is how Morgans rates the big four ASX 200 bank shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• $20,000 invested in CBA shares a year ago is now worth….
• Forget CBA shares and check out this buy-rated ASX financial stock
• 3 excellent ASX ETFs for income investors to buy in December
• Buy this ASX bank share instead of the ‘big four’: expert
• Invested in NAB shares? Here are the key dates for 2026

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

If you are wanting to boost your portfolio with some big returns, then it could be worth considering the ASX All Ords stock in this article.

That’s because Bell Potter believes it could deliver outsized returns for investors between now and this time next year.

Which ASX All Ords stock?

The stock in question is Select Harvests Ltd (ASX: SHV).

It is an integrated grower, processor, and marketer of almonds owning and operating farming and processing assets in Australia.

The broker notes that the ASX All Ords stock operates a diversified portfolio of almond orchards as well as start of the art processing facility in Carina, Victoria, with capacity to process 50,000t of almonds.

It released its FY 2025 results this week and delivered a result largely in line with expectations. The broker explains:

Revenue of $398.3m was up +18% YOY (vs. BPe $309.8m). Operating EBITDA of $76.5m was up +63% YOY (and vs. BPe of $78.0m). An operating NPAT of $27.8m compares to $2.3m in FY24 (and vs. BPe of $27.3m). FY25 results are predicated on a crop of 24,903t (vs. BPe of 24,700t and FY25e guidance of 24,700t) and an almond price assumption of A$10.18/kg (vs. BPe of A$10.17/kg and FY25e guidance at A$10.14-20/kg). Headline NPAT of $31.8m includes a $5.8m pretax gain on sale of water rights (which occurred in 1H25).

And while there was no real guidance for FY 2026, it believes the stage is set for a strong performance. It adds:

here is no formal guidance. Qualitative comments include: (1) Normal but quick bloom, with no frost damage. Harvest likely later than usual due to cooler weather season to date; (2) Favourable almond price backdrop through FY26e (we have spot at ~A$10.90/kg); and (3) some cost headwinds and notably water, bees and electricity (~$20m YOY) with some mitigation through business investment. NPAT changes are +4% in FY26e and +13% in FY27e.

Big potential returns

In light of the above, the broker feels that this ASX All Ords stock is too cheap at 9x forward earnings.

It has put a buy rating and $5.80 price target on its shares, which implies potential upside of 39% for investors over the next 12 months.

In addition, it expects a 1.7% dividend yield in FY 2026 (and 3.6% dividend in FY 2026), which takes the total potential return beyond 40%.

Commenting on its buy recommendation, Bell Potter said:

Our Buy rating is unchanged. FY25 results appeared broadly consistent with our expectations and should benefit in FY26e from improved production volumes and elevated almond prices. While costs are lifting (this was anticipated in our forecasts) and there is the scope for this to be mitigated by cost out initiatives. At spot almond prices we would see SHV trading on a FY26e PE of ~9x, with upside to EPS through delivery of cost out initiatives and securing third party processing volumes.

The post Why this ASX All Ords stock could return 40% in a year appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Almond grower’s shares up on positive full-year profit result

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Macquarie has revealed which S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) shares it expects to deliver strong capital growth in the new year.

The top broker has given the following shares outperform ratings and optimistic 12-month price targets despite today’s volatility.

Let’s check them out.

ASX 200 shares set to outperform in 2026: broker

Here is a selection of Macquarie’s top ASX 200 share tips across the 11 market sectors for 2026.

Materials

Macquarie likes ASX 200 gold share Bellevue Gold Ltd (ASX: BGL), which is trading at $1.29 on Thursday, up 3%.

The broker has a price target of $1.70 on the stock, implying a potential 32% upside.

Macquarie is also backing James Hardie Industries plc (ASX: JHX) shares for a strong recovery after a 40% dive in 2025.

The James Hardie share price is currently $29.92.

The broker has a price target of $40.60 on the building materials supplier, implying a potential 36% gain over 12 months.

Technology

The Macquarie Technology Group Ltd (ASX: MAQ) share price is down 22% in the year to date to $68.19 on Thursday.

The broker has high hopes for this ASX 200 tech share with a 12-month price target of $97.30, suggesting a 43% rise.

Macquarie also likes NextDC Ltd (ASX: NXT) shares with a price target of $20.90.

The NextDC share price is currently $13.87, suggesting a potential 51% upside over the next 12 months.

As we reported this week, ASX 200 tech shares are officially in a bear market amid fears of an AI bubble and high valuations.

Financials

The top broker has a $2.50 price target on GQG Partners Inc (ASX: GQG) shares, which are trading at $1.80 today, up 7.5%.

This implies a potential capital gain of 39%.

Macquarie also likes Pinnacle Investment Management Ltd (ASX: PNI) shares with a price target of $26.55.

The ASX 200 financial share is $17.63 on Thursday, up 3.8%. The broker’s target implies a meaty 51% potential upside.

Industrials

Macquarie has a price target of $8.10 on navy shipbuilder Austral Ltd (ASX: ASB).

Increased global spending on defence is a major tailwind for this ASX 200 industrial share, which is $6.62 apiece today.

This implies a potential 22% gain from here.

The broker is also optimistic on IPH Ltd (ASX: IPH) shares, which are trading for $3.46 on Thursday, down 0.7%.

Macquarie is tipping a 60% upside with its $5.55 price target.

Utilities

Macquarie is backing AGL Energy Limited (ASX: AGL) shares for 2026 with a price guide of $11.

The AGL share price is $9, up 0.2% on Thursday, so the broker is expecting a 22% gain from here.

Consumer discretionary

Macquarie is positive on Temple & Webster Group Ltd (ASX: TPW) shares with a price target of $31.30.

Temple & Webster shares were smashed this week after the online furniture retailer reported an 18% lift in sales for 1H FY26 so far.

The Temple & Webster share price is $14.20, up 2.7% today, with a potential 120% capital gain on the cards if Macquarie is right.

The broker also likes ARB Corporation Ltd (ASX: ARB) shares with a price target of $44.90 compared to the current share price of $33.84.

Consumer Staples

In this sector, the broker likes ASX 200 agricultural share Bega Cheese Ltd (ASX: BGA).

The Bega Cheese share price is $5.98, down 0.8% on Thursday.

Macquarie has a price target of $6.80 on the stock, suggesting a potential near-14% upside.

The broker also foresees Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL) shares surpassing their record high in 2026.

The Coles share price is $22.44, up 0.4% on Thursday and well down on the record $24.28 reached in September.

Macquarie has a price target of $26.10 on the second biggest ASX 200 consumer staples share on the market.

This implies a potential 16% capital gain from here and a new all-time high for Coles shares.

Healthcare

Despite its share price plunge this year, Macquarie is backing CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) for a comeback in 2026.

The CSL share price is $185.61 on Thursday, up 1.5%.

Macquarie’s 12-month price target is $275.20, suggesting a potential 48% gain from here.

The broker also likes sleep apnoea device maker, Resmed CDI (ASX: RMD) shares.

Macquarie has a price target of $49.20 on this ASX 200 healthcare share, which is trading 0.2% lower today at $39.24.

Communications

Macquarie likes Seek Ltd (ASX: SEK) shares with a price target of $32.50, implying a potential 32% increase over the next 12 months.

The Seek share price is $24.56, up 1% today.

Another ASX 200 communications share on the broker’s radar for 2026 is carsales.com.au owner Car Group Limited (ASX: CAR).

The CAR share price is $34.73 on Thursday, up 1.5%.

The broker foresees 13% in capital growth over the next 12 months with a price target of $39.

Energy

Macquarie has a share price target of $11.10 on the market’s largest ASX 200 uranium share, Paladin Energy Ltd (ASX: PDN).

The Paladin Energy share price is $7.82, down 2%, so the broker’s tip suggests a potential 42% upside from here.

The broker also expects a recovery in the Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) share price after a difficult year and a withdrawn takeover bid.

The Santos share price is $6.44, down 1.9%. Macquarie’s price target is $8.15, implying a potential 26% increase ahead.

Real estate & REITs

Macquarie has a $6.74 price target on ASX 200 real estate share Lendlease Group (ASX: LLC).

Lendlease shares are $5.18, down 0.6% today, so the broker’s tip implies a potential 30% upside from here.

Macquarie also likes sector leader Goodman Group (ASX: GMG) with a price target of $34.73.

The Goodman Group share price is $29.66, up 0.9% on Thursday.

The post Macquarie reveals ASX 200 share tips in each market sector for 2026 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• What Australia’s shocking inflation print means for ASX 200 investors and interest rates
• Why Amcor, DroneShield, Harvey Norman, and QBE shares are falling today
• Why are ASX 200 gold stocks like Northern Star smashing the benchmark on Thursday
• Should you buy Temple & Webster shares after the crash?
• Are Lendlease shares a bargain after hitting fresh lows?

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended ARB Corporation, CSL, Goodman Group, Macquarie Group, Pinnacle Investment Management Group, ResMed, and Temple & Webster Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group, Pinnacle Investment Management Group, and ResMed. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended ARB Corporation, CAR Group Ltd, CSL, Goodman Group, Gqg Partners, IPH Ltd , and Temple & Webster Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Reaching retirement age might be an exciting milestone for some Aussies, but a concerning time for others. What if you don’t have enough money in your superannuation to fund your lifestyle when you finally stop working? Here’s a rundown of exactly what you need at the age of 64, and how far you are away from it.

What is the average superannuation balance at age 64?

There isn’t an exact figure for the average superannuation balances at the exact age of 64, but there are rough estimates. 

According to Rest Super, the average superannuation balance for Australians aged 60-64 is $380,737 for men and $300,717 for women. 

Although at the age of 64, it’s safe to assume that you’d need closer to the balance bracket in the age group above. For men aged 65-69, the average super balance is $428,533, and for women it’s $379,483.

Is this enough for a comfortable retirement?

The benchmark for a comfortable retirement, according to the latest ASFA Retirement Standard, is around $53,000 per year for a single person and $75,000 per year for a couple.

To support that level of spending, ASFA estimates you’ll need a super balance of roughly $595,000 for singles and $690,000 for couples by age 67.

That’s assuming you own your home outright, have access to some age pension payments, and your super continues to earn investment returns throughout retirement.

For a modest retirement, you’ll need around $100,000 more.

So there is a significant gap between the average and what Aussies actually need to fund their retirement.

What to do if your superannuation balance is falling behind

While there is no official retirement age in Australia, in order to be eligible for the Age Pension, individuals must be at least 67 years old. 

When it comes to accessing your superannuation, generally, it’s only possible to do so after you’ve reached your preservation age and retired from income-earning employment, or met some other condition of release. 

Preservation age is between 55-60 years old, depending on when you were born. It’s important to remember that once you have reached preservation age, you may be able to access some of your super, but not all of it. You’ll still need to meet a condition of release. Many wait until they’re 65 years old so they can access their full super balance regardless of their employment status. 

This means that, at the age of 64, you’re likely only one year away from withdrawing from it, if you haven’t already started. 

If your superannuation balance is falling behind, there is still time to close the gap. You can boost your super balance either before or in retirement by making additional concessional or non-concessional contributions (within your annual limits). 

It’s also important to make sure your super fund is performing well, particularly how its investments linked to the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) are tracking, since even small changes in returns can have a huge impact on your end balance. So, it’s crucial to review your investment strategy and ensure it aligns with your retirement goals and risk appetite.

The post Here’s the average superannuation balance at age 64 in Australia appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Why this ASX All Ords stock could return 40% in a year
• Macquarie reveals ASX 200 share tips in each market sector for 2026
• This ASX All Ords stock has more than doubled investors’ money since January. Here’s why it’s tipped to surge another 45%!
• Are ASX ETFs the new vehicle for easy dividend investing?
• Mesoblast shares: Bull vs. bear

Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.