Author: openjargon

The Austal Ltd (ASX: ASB) share price has been sinking in recent weeks.

At the time of writing, the defence shipbuilder’s shares are down 1.25% to $4.73. This leaves the stock down 20% over the past month and not far above its 52-week low of $4.04 reached during the March 2025 market sell-off.

Let’s take a closer look at what has happened and whether Austal shares can turn the clock back.

A clear reset in expectations

The recent decline follows a material shift in expectations after Austal downgraded its FY26 earnings guidance.

The company revealed that its prior outlook had included an overstatement tied to incentives within its US operations. This resulted in EBIT guidance being reduced to approximately $110 million.

While the company still reported solid top-line growth in its most recent half, the downgrade has weighed on sentiment.

There are also ongoing pressures within the US business. Cost challenges and legacy contract issues continue to impact margins, even as revenue in that segment remains solid.

Share price trend remains weak

The trend in Austal shares is still pointing lower.

Over the past several months, the stock has formed a pattern of lower highs and lower lows. The recent move back toward the $4.70 range has reinforced that downward momentum.

In addition, the relative strength index (RSI) has been sitting in the lower range, pointing to weak buying interest. While it has not reached deeply oversold levels, it indicates the stock is still lacking strong support from buyers.

Key support appears near the $4 to $4.20 range, close to the previous 52-week low. On the upside, resistance may sit around $5.50, where the stock traded before the latest sell-off.

What could drive a turnaround?

Despite the recent weakness, Austal continues to operate in a sector supported by long-term demand.

The company has a $17.7 billion order book and remains exposed to rising defence spending, particularly in the United States and Australia.

In the near term, performance is likely to come down to execution rather than broader industry trends.

If the company delivers on its revised guidance and improves margins in its US operations, investor confidence may begin to recover.

Foolish Takeaway

Austal remains a sizeable defence contractor with a strong pipeline of work. However, recent events have shifted the focus back to its operational performance.

The downgrade has reset expectations, and the burden is now on management to deliver consistent results from here.

Until that happens, the market may remain hesitant.

The post Down 20% in a month, can this ASX defence stock make a turnaround? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• These 2 lesser-known ASX defence stocks are tipped to soar
• The five worst performing ASX 200 stocks bought and held in February unmasked
• These ASX 200 shares sank 20% or more in February
• Austal shares down almost 40% in a month. Is this the bottom?

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) shares are 0.5% lower on Friday and have fallen 8% since the war in Iran broke out.

The US and Israel launched strikes on Iran on 28 February (US time) with the intention of destroying Iran’s nuclear capability.

This has caused a global fuel crunch, with oil prices skyrocketing due to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The Strait is a crucial shipping lane for transporting oil and gas from the Middle East to markets worldwide.

On top of that, fresh missile strikes on energy infrastructure this week have further disrupted oil and gas supply chains.

These events have far-reaching ramifications for individual businesses relying on fuel to power machines and transport goods.

Higher petrol prices are already having a broader economic impact, contributing to the Reserve Bank’s call to raise interest rates this week.

Amid all this volatility, how are Australia’s top 10 ASX 200 shares faring?

Are they demonstrating resilience, or have they been caught up in the broader market sell-off?

Let’s take a look at their share price performance since the start of March.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA)

The Commonwealth Bank share price is $176.50, down 0.5% on Friday and up 1.1% since the war began.

Amid the market turmoil, CBA quietly reclaimed its title as Australia’s largest ASX 200 share by market capitalisation.

CBA and BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) have been passing the crown back and forth for the past few months.

On 27 February, BHP reassumed the title.

Less than three weeks later, CBA shares are back on top with more than $50 billion in market cap separating them from BHP shares.

Over 12 months, the CBA share price has lifted 21.1%.

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP)

BHP is the market’s largest mining share, and leads the ASX 200 materials sector.

The BHP share price is $47.56, down 1.6% on Friday and down 18.6% since the war in Iran began.

Over 12 months, BHP shares have lifted 22%, and reached a record high of $59.39 apiece last month.

ASX 200 mining shares have been the worst hit by the war, with the materials sector falling 19% so far this month.

Mining shares have fallen because higher oil prices will directly impact operating costs and potentially production, if there’s a shortage.

It is also likely that investors are taking profits after a strong 12-month run for materials amid a new longer-term mining boom in Australia.

National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB)

Business lending specialist NAB is the second-largest ASX 200 bank by market capitalisation.

The NAB share price is $45.82, down 1.7% on Friday and down 6.5% since the start of the war.

Over 12 months, NAB shares have lifted 38%, and reached a record $49.45 last month.

Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) 

Westpac is Australia’s oldest bank.

The Westpac share price is $40.87, down 0.6% today and down 3.9% since the war began.

Over 12 months, the ASX 200 bank share has lifted 33%, and hit a record $43.32 last month.

ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ)

The ANZ share price is $36.78, down 0.7% on Friday and down 8.1% since the war began.

Over 12 months, ANZ shares have lifted 26% and reached a record high of $41 last month.

Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES)

Wesfarmers is the largest ASX 200 consumer discretionary share. 

The conglomerate owns household names like Bunnings, Kmart, Officeworks, and Priceline.

The Wesfarmers share price is $73.51, down 0.2% today and down 7.7% since the start of the month.

Over 12 months, Wesfarmers shares are up 4%.

Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG)

This investment bank is the fifth-largest ASX 200 bank by market capitalisation.

The Macquarie share price is $195.70, down 0.2% on Friday and down 8.3% since the war broke out.

Over the past 12 months, Macquarie shares have fallen by 3%.

CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL)

CSL is still the largest ASX 200 healthcare stock, despite a near-halving in its share price over the past 12 months.

The CSL share price is $137.88, up 2.4% today and down 6% since the war in Iran began.

Over 12 months, CSL shares have fallen 46% due to company-specific issues, including a drop in vaccination rates worldwide.

The CSL share price touched an eight-year low of $133.35 yesterday.

Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS)

Woodside is the largest ASX 200 energy share on the market.

The Woodside share price is $33.92, up 0.7% on Friday and up 19.8% since the war started.

Over 12 months, Woodside shares have increased by 48%.

The oil & gas giant has benefited from rising oil and gas prices since the war began.

Over the past 30 days, the Brent Crude oil price has soared 47% while the European gas price has skyrocketed 96%.

The Woodside share price reached a two-and-a-half-year high of $34.31 in earlier trading today.

Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS)

Telstra is the No. 1 ASX 200 communications share by market cap.

The Telstra share price is $5.31, up 0.1% on Friday and up 2.4% since the war in Iran began.

Over the past 12 months, Telstra shares have risen 28%.

On Friday, the Telstra share price reached a nine-year high of $5.35.

The post Pulse check: How are the top 10 ASX 200 shares performing amid a new war? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy right now
• Are Fortescue shares a top buy in March?
• How I’d build a world-class ASX passive income portfolio
• Woodside vs Santos: Which ASX energy stock is the best fit for your portfolio?
• Here’s how much I’d need to invest in BHP shares to generate a $100 monthly income

>Motley Fool</a> contributor href=”https://www.fool.com.au/author/TMFBronwyn/”>Bronwyn Allen has positions in BHP Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL, Macquarie Group, and Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group and Telstra Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group, CSL, and Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

I bought shares today.

For some of you, that might feel notable. For others, hopefully long-term members and readers, that will come as no surprise.

But let me tell you about it.

Actually, I can only tell you some things. If I told you what I bought, I’d probably be fired!

The Motley Fool has a strict trading policy which, among other things, bans me from writing or talking about the companies I’ve purchased (or sold) for two full market days either side of me making the trade.

Why? Because while I doubt very much that me doing so would make any difference to the share prices at all, it might. And the possibility, and perception, of something untoward is enough to mean it’s a no-go.

It’s a really good trading policy. Justice, as they say, not only has to be done, but has to be seen to be done, and our policy covers both.

So, because I like both my job and my paycheque, I’m going to stay on the right side of our policy!

That said, what’s the point of saying ‘I bought shares’, if I can’t tell you which ones I bought.

Well, it’s because at times like these, it can be tempting to be paralysed by geopolitics, inflation, interest rates, headlines, and a falling ASX.

Tempting to wait until the coast is clear: the war in Iran has been resolved, inflation settles, rates start falling again. Until things just… feel better.

Here’s the problem with that approach. There’s two problems, actually:

First, the coast is never truly clear. There’s always something to worry about. Some headline. Some risk. Someone predicting doom and gloom.

Second, the times when the coast feels clear, are the times when share prices tend to be at their highest – because everyone else feels the same.

But remember Warren Buffett’s words: ‘you pay a very high price in the stock market for a cheery consensus’. In other words, when everyone else is feeling good, too, there are rarely bargains to be found.

And also… those ‘what could go wrong’ times tend to precede, well, things going wrong!

Now, I also want to share what wasn’t a motivation for buying shares today.

I’m not saying this is ‘the bottom’.

I’m not saying shares can’t fall from here. Maybe even meaningfully.

I’m not saying this is some amazingly perfect time to buy.

In other words, I’m not timing the market.

I bought shares today because I have cash. And because I believe in the businesses I bought.

I bought shares today because I think that in 5, 10, and 20 years’ time, they will be worth more.

Hopefully much more.

And if I’m right about the businesses, and their future value… why wouldn’t I buy?

Oh sure, in a year’s time, I’ll be able to tell you exactly the dates I should have bought, and the prices I should have paid.

Maybe earlier, or later than today. Maybe at lower prices.

Thing is… that stuff is impossible to know in advance, and there is literally no value in beating yourself up.

The other thing? Well, if I’m right about that future value, the growth that’s coming will hopefully dwarf any nickel-and-diming over trying to guess where the bottom might be.

And in reality, you can only know where the bottom is after you’ve reached it and started climbing, so you’ll miss it anyway!

And then, how do you know the shares won’t go back down? So you wait a little longer…

And then 10%, 15% or 20% goes by. Maybe you buy then. Or maybe you don’t, because you’re cursing yourself for missing ‘the bottom’ and you’re waiting for the next one.

I mean, be my guest, but you might find that you should have just bought at reasonable prices when you had the chance.

Me? I’m buying at what I think are reasonable prices, today. What happens next is outside my control. Maybe they shoot up. Maybe they crash. Maybe nothing.

There’s no way to know, and a lot of time, effort, energy and emotion is wasted in the process of trying to guess.

I don’t know where prices will be tomorrow, next week or next month.

Investors never do.

But time is the friend of a quality business, to paraphrase Warren Buffett, especially one bought at a reasonable price.

So, I bought shares today. I’ll do it again soon.

I’ll buy again not long after that, too.

And I’ll keep doing it, regularly adding to my portfolio with my eyes not on the headlines, but on the horizon.

It’s a time-tested approach, and I suspect it’ll keep working for decades to come.

Fool on!

The post I bought shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Pulse check: How are the top 10 ASX 200 shares performing amid a new war?
• Brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy right now
• 4 top ASX share picks to buy
• Computershare shares just hit a fresh multi-year low. What is going on?
• 3 buy-rated ASX shares in today’s falling market

Motley Fool contributor Scott Phillips has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

It has been another busy week for many of Australia’s top brokers. This has led to the release of a number of broker notes.

Three broker buy ratings that you might want to know more about are summarised below. Here’s why brokers think these ASX shares are in the buy zone right now:

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP)

According to a note out of Morgan Stanley, its analysts have retained their overweight rating and $56.00 price target on this mining giant’s shares. This follows news that the Big Australian’s CEO, Mike Henry, is stepping down after six and a half years in the role. He will be replaced by Brandon Craig on 1 July. Morgan Stanley believes that the appointment of Craig is signalling strategic continuity. The broker highlights that he has significant experience with BHP and has held various leadership roles across the group. This includes strengthening BHP’s position in copper and potash in the Americas region. In light of this, Morgan Stanley appears to see the change of leadership as low-risk and expects it to be supportive of execution across key growth projects. The BHP share price is trading at $47.55 on Friday.

Flight Centre Travel Group Ltd (ASX: FLT)

A note out of Citi reveals that its analysts have retained their buy rating and $16.75 price target on this travel agent giant’s shares. The broker has been busy looking at travel data to better understand the impact the Middle East conflict is having on Flight Centre’s business. While it concedes that estimating the impact to its earnings is very complex, it appears confident it will be less than what the Flight Centre share price decline is implying. As a result, it sees the pullback as a buying opportunity for investors. The Flight Centre share price is fetching $11.51 at the time of writing.

REA Group Ltd (ASX: REA)

Another note out of Citi reveals that its analysts have retained their buy rating and $199.00 price target on this property listings company’s shares. The broker believes that the company’s higher-than-forecast price increases will offset any potential downside risk from listings softness caused by interest rate hikes and broad macro weakness. Citi notes that REA Group is expecting to increase prices by 8% to 10%, which is ahead of its 7% forecast. It also believes these strong price increases should ease concerns that competition from Domain could put pressure on pricing. The REA Group share price is trading at $158.65 this afternoon.

The post Brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy right now appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Pulse check: How are the top 10 ASX 200 shares performing amid a new war?
• Are Fortescue shares a top buy in March?
• How I’d build a world-class ASX passive income portfolio
• Flight Centre shares lift amid latest UK acquisition news
• Here’s how much I’d need to invest in BHP shares to generate a $100 monthly income

Citigroup is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in REA Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group and Flight Centre Travel Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

There’s no shortage of opportunities on the ASX right now.

But rather than trying to chase what’s hot, I prefer to focus on businesses that are executing well, growing consistently, and have clear long-term potential.

Here are four top ASX shares that stand out to me.

Sigma Healthcare Ltd (ASX: SIG)

Sigma has quietly repositioned itself over the past few years.

The key driver is its merger with Chemist Warehouse, which has created a much larger and more competitive healthcare business. That added scale should help improve efficiency, strengthen supplier relationships, and support margins over time.

It also gives Sigma exposure to one of the strongest retail pharmacy brands in Australia, which I think adds a layer of quality to the story.

For me, this is a business that may not look exciting today, but could deliver steady earnings growth as the benefits of that transformation come through.

HUB24 Ltd (ASX: HUB)

Another top ASX share I would buy is HUB24. It continues to stand out as one of the more consistent performers on the ASX.

Funds under administration keep growing, net inflows remain strong, and it continues to take share from competitors. That combination tells me the platform is resonating with advisers and clients.

There’s also a broader shift toward professional financial advice and platform solutions, which provides a supportive backdrop for continued growth.

In my view, HUB24 is a high-quality compounder that is benefiting from both strong execution and favourable industry dynamics.

WiseTech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC)

WiseTech has had a tougher run recently, but I think it’s still a high-quality technology business.

Its CargoWise platform plays a critical role in global logistics, and once embedded, it becomes very difficult for customers to replace. That creates sticky revenue and long-term customer relationships.

The company is also continuing to invest in product development, which should help expand its capabilities and strengthen its competitive position.

While the share price may remain volatile as AI disruption concerns linger, I see this as a business with genuine global scale and a long runway for growth.

SiteMinder Ltd (ASX: SDR)

SiteMinder is another technology company that I think deserves attention.

It provides software that helps hotels manage bookings, pricing, and distribution across multiple channels, effectively sitting at the centre of their revenue operations.

What I like is that it is now combining solid growth with improving profitability, which is an important step for any software business.

There’s also a clear opportunity to deepen its relationship with customers by expanding the range of products it offers, which could support revenue growth over time.

To me, SiteMinder looks like a company that is still early in its journey, with a large addressable market and increasing momentum.

Foolish takeaway

These aren’t the only ASX shares I’d consider buying right now, but they’re four that stand out as top picks for different reasons.

Sigma offers a transformation story, HUB24 continues to deliver consistent growth, WiseTech has global scale, and SiteMinder is building a strong position in hotel technology.

Together, they reflect the kind of quality and growth I’d be looking for in a long-term portfolio.

The post 4 top ASX share picks to buy appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Bell Potter’s top ASX 200 holdings revealed
• 3 quality ASX shares to buy and hold until 2036
• 2 ASX tech shares that could double from here
• Has the WiseTech stock finally hit rock bottom?
• The bulls are coming: 2 of the best ASX 200 shares to buy now to get ahead

Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has positions in Hub24. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Hub24, SiteMinder, and WiseTech Global. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended SiteMinder and WiseTech Global. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Hub24. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The Computershare Ltd (ASX: CPU) share price is heading south yet again on Thursday.

At the time of writing, the financial administration company’s shares are down 0.93% to $27.77, after slipping to a new multi-year low of $27.76 earlier in the session. By comparison, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is also in the red by 0.5%.

The latest move adds to a difficult stretch for investors, with the Computershare stock now trading lower for 7 straight sessions.

Selling pressure continues to build

Looking at the charts, Computershare shares have been trending lower for some time.

Over the past year, the stock has steadily declined, and the move to fresh lows suggests that selling pressure remains in place. The chart shows a clear pattern of lower highs and lower lows, pointing to weak momentum.

Short-term indicators also reflect this. The relative strength index (RSI) has been sitting in the lower range, highlighting a lack of buying support in recent sessions.

While the decline has not been significant on any single day, the steady run of losses indicates sellers remain in control.

Interest rate expectations remain a key factor

One of the main drivers of Computershare’s earnings is the interest it earns on client balances.

Recent shifts in central bank expectations seem to be weighing on sentiment. Markets are increasingly factoring in the likelihood of rate cuts across major economies, including the United States.

This change in outlook could reduce support from one of the company’s more important earnings streams.

Market conditions also playing a role

Equity markets have been volatile in recent weeks amid ongoing uncertainty over inflation, economic growth, and geopolitical developments.

This has led to a shift in positioning, with investors moving toward more defensive areas of the market.

Computershare delivered strong returns in prior years, so some investors may be taking profits or reducing exposure as conditions change.

A large global platform

Despite the recent share price decline, Computershare remains a major global provider of shareholder and corporate administration services.

The company operates across multiple regions, including Australia, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada. Its services include share registry operations, corporate trust, employee share plans, and mortgage servicing.

Its global footprint means earnings are tied to corporate activity, market conditions, and interest rate movements.

Foolish Takeaway

The Computershare share price is now trading at multi-year lows, reflecting ongoing weakness in sentiment and economic expectations.

While the business continues to operate across global markets, interest rates and market conditions are likely to remain key drivers from here.

The post Computershare shares just hit a fresh multi-year low. What is going on? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 5 ASX shares that could benefit from rising interest rates
• Computershare shares fall to a 2-year low. Is this the bottom?
• 3 ASX 200 shares trading well below brokers’ targets

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

S&P/ASX All Ords Index (ASX: XAO) shares are 0.26% lower at 8,668.3 points on Friday.

Today’s fall builds on yesterday’s 1.77% drop after missile strikes on energy assets in the Middle East caused a spike in oil prices.

ASX All Ords shares have fallen 8.13% since the war began, and the market is now 4% in the red for the year to date (YTD).

Meantime, brokers have named 3 ASX shares with buy recommendations amid all this volatility.

Let’s take a look.

Helloworld Travel Ltd (ASX: HLO)

Helloworld Travel shares are steady at $1.44 on Friday, down 23.8% YTD and down 6.5% over 12 months.

Shaw and Partners reiterated its buy rating on this ASX travel share after the Australian Bureau of Statistics released new data.

The broker commented:

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Overseas Arrivals and Departures data for January 2026 bodes well for Helloworld Travel Limited (ASX:HLO) with Departures up 8.4% Financial YTD and the travel destination mix reasonably steady. 

Shaw and Partners kept its 12-month share price target at $2.80.

This implies a potential 94% upside from here.

Bega Cheese Ltd (ASX: BGA)

The Bega Cheese share price is down 0.27% to $5.60 at the time of writing.

The ASX consumer staples share is down 7.67% YTD and up 8.6% over the past year.

This month, PAC Partners retained its buy rating and increased its price target by 7% to $7.50 per share.

This implies a potential 34% upside from here.

The broker said:

Bega Cheese Limited’s (ASX:BGA) vision of a great Australian food company arrived this year with: a scalable platform #1 and #2 “better for you” brands; #1 Australian cold chain; off-shore leverage; and a 50% lift in dividend in 1H’26.

Starpharma Holdings Ltd (ASX: SPL)

The Starpharma share price is 47 cents, up 1.1% on Friday.

This ASX small-cap share has risen 25.7% YTD and soared 365% over 12 months.

PAC Partners has a buy rating on this ASX healthcare share.

The broker forecasts growth in partnerships and over-the-counter revenue over the next four years.

PAC Partners says it has a “high risk” 12-month price target range of 80 cents to $1 on Starpharma shares.

This suggests a possible minimum capital gain of 70% over the next 12 months.

PAC Partners commented:

Starpharma Holdings Limited (ASX:SPL) will start human clinical trials of its novel radiotherapy drug for a solid cancer target by the end of 2026.

This in-house project opens up SPL dendrimer applications beyond the Genentech, medicxi and RAD.ASX partnered projects.

The post 3 buy-rated ASX shares in today’s falling market appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• These 3 ASX stocks are paying better than 7% dividend yields
• ASX travel shares are hovering near yearly lows – time to buy?
• 2 ASX small-cap shares with 100% potential upside
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• Brokers think these two travel shares could take off

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) shares have taken a massive hit this week, with selling picking up after a weak update from the company.

The share price is down 2.58% to $18.47 at the time of writing. Over the past week, the stock has dropped about 32%, putting it among the worst performers in the gold sector.

So, what has gone wrong, and where to from here?

Production concerns weigh on sentiment

The sell-off followed an operational update that has raised fresh concerns for investors.

Northern Star said production is now expected to land at the lower end of its FY26 guidance range. It also flagged weaker milling performance at KCGM and softer mining productivity at Jundee.

For January and February 2026, gold sales totalled 220,000 ounces. Open pit grades at KCGM averaged about 1.6 grams per tonne, which fell short of expectations.

Although the company still expects full-year production to exceed 1.5 million ounces, the update has shifted the focus to execution risks.

It is also not the first downgrade. Northern Star has lowered expectations multiple times, which is starting to weigh on investor confidence.

Gold price pullback adds to pressure

The broader market backdrop has not helped.

Gold prices have pulled back in recent weeks after a strong run earlier in the year. The metal is now down around 10% over the past month, which has weighed on sentiment across the sector.

At the same time, costs remain a concern. Rising oil prices and ongoing inflation across labour and materials are adding pressure to operating margins.

This combination of softer gold prices and higher costs has made investors more hesitant on gold stocks in the short term.

Mixed views from brokers

Despite the heavy sell-off, broker views are not all negative.

Bell Potter has kept a ‘buy’ rating on Northern Star but noted the latest update was disappointing. It expects the share price could stay under pressure in the near term as the market digests the weaker guidance.

Morgans also revised its forecasts after the announcement, cutting its price target from $35 to $30. Even after this cut, the revised target still implies upside from current levels.

Across the market, views remain split. Some see value at these levels if operations improve, while others remain focused on execution risks and rising costs.

What to watch from here

Attention will now shift to Northern Star’s next quarterly update.

Investors will be watching production, costs, and whether performance at KCGM and Jundee starts to improve. Another downgrade would likely put further pressure on the share price.

Gold prices will also remain a key driver in the near term.

Until then, the market is likely to stay focused on delivery.

The post Does Northern Star shares have further to fall? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Why EOS, Latitude, Northern Star, and Rio Tinto shares are falling today
• Down 32% in a month: Where to from here for this ASX gold stock?
• Why are ASX 200 gold stocks like Northern Star and Newmont down so much today?
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday
• Which ASX gold shares have risen the most in 2026?

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

With just a few hours of trade left this week, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is down 1.6% since last Friday’s closing bell, but that hasn’t held back these three surging ASX 200 stocks.

It’s a diversified list of top performers on my list for the week. One is a major energy supplier; one is a leading healthcare stock; and the third is a global metals and electronics recycler.

Here’s why they’ve been charging higher this week despite the broader market retrace.

ASX 200 stocks leaping higher this week

First up we have Sims Ltd (ASX: SGM).

Shares in the metals and electronics recycler closed last Friday trading for $18.36. At time of writing, shares are changing hands for $20.65. That sees this ASX 200 stock up 12.4% for the week.

Sims shares got a big boost on Wednesday after the company reported a positive FY 2026 trading update.

Noting continued price strength in both the non-ferrous and memory chip markets, Sims forecast full year underlying earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to be between $350 million and $400 million.

Sims also reassured investors that the impact on its performance from the Middle East conflict to date remains relatively limited outside of shipping and fuel costs.

Moving on to the second ASX 200 stock racing higher in this week’s falling market, we have Viva Energy Group Ltd (ASX: VEA).

Shares in the oil refiner and fuel supplier closed last week trading for $2.14 and are currently changing hands for $2.42 each. This puts the Viva Energy share price up 13.3% for the week.

The stock has been a clear beneficiary of surging global oil and gas prices, with shares now up more than 37% over the past months.

Viva Energy also caught investor interest today following news of renewed Federal government support for domestic oil refining as the war in Iran threatens imports.

The government’s Fuel Security Services Payment (FSSP) provides financial support for Australia’s two remaining refineries when regional refining margins fall below long-term breakeven costs.

Viva Energy owns and operates the Geelong Refinery in Victoria.

Which brings us to…

Leading the charge

The top performing ASX 200 stock on my list for today is Telix Pharmaceuticals Ltd (ASX: TLX).

Shares in the diagnostic and therapeutic product developer closed last Friday at $11.29. Shares are currently trading for $12.99 each. This sees the Telix share price up an impressive 14.7% in this week’s slumping market.

Telix shares look to have gotten a delayed boost throughout the week from Monday’s announcement that it had resubmitted a New Drug Application to the US Food and Drug Administration for its brain cancer imaging product TLX101-Px (Pixclara).

The resubmission included additional data requested by the FDA.

“Our resubmission is supported by an extensive and compelling data set – particularly so for an orphan indication,” Telix chief medical officer David Cade said.

The post 3 ASX 200 stocks screaming higher in this week’s sinking market appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Up 38% in a month, ASX 200 energy share lifting off again Friday on big oil refining news
• Viva Energy welcomes government boost to refinery support
• Could Telix shares be a millionaire-maker stock?
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• 5 ASX 200 energy shares smash multi-year highs after oil price spike

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Telix Pharmaceuticals. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Telix Pharmaceuticals. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

It’s probably fair to say that many ASX investors might be starting to worry that the share market is heading for a rough patch. At the extreme ends, we could see a stock market correction, or even crash, in 2026. Now, to be clear, I’m not trying to scare anyone. I, nor anybody else, knows what the markets will do tomorrow, let alone next week or next month.

However, we can’t skirt the fact that a severe energy shock, as the the world is currently experiencing, has the potential to be highly damaging to the global economy. The US-Iran war has resulted in the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait is a vital energy artery that, until a few weeks ago, allowed the transit of about a fifth of the world’s energy supply chain. As most Australians would already be aware, this has sent energy costs soaring around the globe.

Long story short, the possibility of a stock market correction or crash looks more likely today than it did three weeks ago. At least in my view.

This might seem like a scary prospect. And it is. Stock market downturns can have serious implications for investors, particularly those at or approaching retirement.

How to approach a potential 2026 stock market crash

However, even before the US-Iran war started, ASX investors should have been preparing for a crash at some point. As the long history of the stock market proves, periodic corrections or crashes are an inevitable part of investing. There is usually a catalyst , of course. But regardless of what that catalyst turns out to be, the question when it comes to the next crash is always ‘when’, not ‘if’.

As such, I think all investors should be wargaming the prospect of a market downturn at the best of times. If you haven’t, today is probably a good day to start.

That doesn’t mean girding yourself to start selling shares if things get worse though. It is my firm belief that the ASX share portfolio you have when you expect the good times to roll should be the same portfolio that you have if you are bracing for a possible stock market crash. If you buy an ASX share, whether it be TechnologyOne Ltd (ASX: TNE) or Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA), you are buying an ownership stake in that company’s future profits.

The future is a long time. So if you believe a company will be permanently damaged or even perish in the next recession or economic calamity, why would you own the shares in the first place? It would be the equivalent of buying a house on a floodplain.

If the market crashed tomorrow, I would not sell a single share in my portfolio. Instead, I would be scraping whatever money I had at my disposal together to buy more shares at a much cheaper price.

The post What if the stock market crashes in 2026? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 3 buy-rated ASX shares in today’s falling market
• Does Northern Star shares have further to fall?
• 3 ASX 200 stocks screaming higher in this week’s sinking market
• Are Fortescue shares a top buy in March?
• EOS shares tumble 8% as insider selling ramps up

Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Technology One. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Technology One. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.