Author: openjargon

• I worked as a hair and makeup artist for more than six years, and I love drugstore products.
• High-end products from brands like NARS and Too Faced are great, but ELF and NYX are on par.
• For hair, I love the Dove felxible-hold hairspray — its the closest I've found to my holy grail.

I've been doing hair and makeup professionally on and off for over a decade. For about six years of that time, I was with a wedding-focused team and did quite a bit of freelance work for photoshoots, high-school and college events, showers, birthdays, and more.

Everyone's kit is unique to them, and testing products to find new go-tos can be part of the fun. But it isn't always budget-friendly — after all, the global cosmetics industry is set to be worth more than $101 billion by 2027.

Feel free to splurge on top industry products. But if you're looking for budget-friendly alternatives, I'm your girl.

Here are some of the best drugstore makeup and hair products that I think are total dupes for luxury items.

ELF's entire Halo Glow line rivals brands like Charlotte Tilbury.

For years, Charlotte Tilbury's base makeup and contours have been the talk of the town — every makeup artist I know keeps the brand's Flawless Filter ($50) in their kit.

But ELF — one of my favorite inexpensive brands for bold looks — has introduced a Halo Glow line that I think is almost identical to Charlotte Tilbury's more upscale products.

The drugstore brand's Liquid Filter ($14) product is the perfect base for a dewy glow.

Maybelline’s Fit Me foundation is a dead ringer for a product that costs five times more.

When I first started as a makeup artist, NARS was the most lavish foundation ($52) I could invest in. Over the years, its formula has stayed in the top rankings.

Yet Maybelline's Fit Me foundation ($10) is so good that I don't even consider buying NARS' anymore.

NYX’s Bare With Me gives some fan-favorite concealers a run for their money.

I've always believed that concealer is a multifaceted product. It can hide blemishes, prep skin for makeup, and help pigment colors.

For that reason, I like having multiple concealer options in my kit, and NYX has one of my favorites.

I'm shocked by how the brand's Bare With Me concealer ($12) works very similarly to the popular Too Faced Born This Way ($30) and Kosas Revealer ($30) ones that have been all over the internet.

NYX's I Know That's Bright eyeshadow palette is just as good as some luxury products.

It's existed in many names and forms over the years, but NYX's $20 Brights eyeshadow palette (currently called I Know That's Bright) is one of the most pigmented drugstore palettes I've ever used.

It's what I always reach for when I'm going for bold looks, bright liners, and any reincarnations of Hayley Williams' Bonnaroo 2018 look.

It's also a fantastic alternative to MAC's Connect In Colour ($55), ColourPop's Fade Into Hue ($35), and Anastasia Beverly Hills' Norvina Pro-Pigment ($60) palettes.

Dove flexible-hold is the best drugstore hairspray in the business.

Dove's flexible-hold hairspray ($9) is the most affordable item I've found that can compare to my beloved Kendra Perfect Medium Spray 13 ($21).

I'd say its hold is somewhere in between Kendra's 10 and 13 sprays.

The Dove product mists on lightly, has a pleasant scent, and doesn't flake.

L’Oreal’s Magic Root Cover-Up is a cheaper way to get expensive-looking results.

Hair loss and thinning are completely natural and don't need to be covered up. But if you're trying to make your hair look thicker, L'Oreal's Magic Root Cover-Up ($12) is a great choice.

I keep three colors in my bag that blend naturally into my hair and look seamless after I add a little root powder.

Sure, a spray won't ever be a perfect dupe for hair transplants and custom extensions, which can cost three to five figures, but it's so affordable that I'd say it's close enough.

Cotton swabs rival some makeup brushes.

I have multiple sets of makeup brushes and applicators. But when those are out of reach, cotton swabs are my go-to solution. They may not be perfect dupes, but they are a constant fixture in my kit, and you can get hundreds for as little as $1.

They're great tools for a myriad of things, including makeup application and fixing mistakes. I've found that cotton swabs also tend to apply color more boldly, and I prefer the way they blend to any disposable eyeshadow applicators (and most brushes) I've used.

If you wet the swab before adding product to it, it applies with more precision. I often create colorful or bold eyeliner looks with this method.

• Some Philips Hue bulbs have reportedly been randomly turning to full brightness.
• Parent company Signify confirmed to The Verge that a fix is coming within the next week.
• The company advised users to temporarily disconnect the Hue Bridge from Matter.

If your smart bulbs are acting strangely, you're not alone.

Some owners of Philips Hue bulbs have recently noticed their lights randomly turning to full brightness despite being set to dimmer levels, taking to social media to flag the issue.

One person wrote to the brand on X, formerly Twitter, complaining that the issue had been going on "for a few weeks."

Others have brought the matter to Reddit, asking for help with their rogue bulbs. One thread, titled "Lights randomly go up to 100% brightness," received multiple comments relating to the problem.

One person wrote in the thread that they had "tried everything" to fix the issue, including moving the smart bulbs to new lamps or outlets.

"Wife and I settled on ghosts and bugs," they said.

Well, impacted owners can now rule out one of those two things — Philips Hue's parent company, Signify, confirmed on Monday to The Verge that an "interoperability issue" is the reason, and a solution is coming within the next week.

"After extensive analysis, we have identified an interoperability issue with the Matter smarthome standard, in which random temporary radio traffic disruptions are incorrectly recognized as legacy switch power toggles, turning low brightness lights to full brightness," a spokesperson for Signify, Kate Helander, told The Verge.

Signify did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Business Insider.

It's unclear whether the issue lies with Signify or Matter, the smart home connectivity standard integrated with the Philips Hue Bridge smart lighting hub. Signify told The Verge that users can disconnect the Hue Bridge from Matter through their phone settings and their Matter controller app.

The company told the tech publication that only "a small percentage of users" have been affected by the bug and assured that a "permanent fix for the issue is in progress and will be rolled out within the next week."

So if your smart bulb is ruining your mood lighting, just know that help is on the way — you'll just need to wait a bit longer for your smart light bulb to receive a software update.

• Billionaires and business moguls are touching down in Sun Valley for the Allen & Company conference.
• The annual event, known as 'summer camp for billionaires,' draws the biggest names in tech and media.
• Their planes are taking over the local airport, causing heavy traffic and logistical challenges.

The annual cacophony over Sun Valley, Idaho, has officially begun as billionaires and business moguls descend to coopt the small town — population: 1,783 — for the annual Allen & Company Sun Valley Conference.

Every year for more than four decades, just after the July 4th holiday, the sleepy ski town has hosted the richest and most powerful people on Earth, who show up to discuss the hot topics of the day. Sun Valley is where Jeff Bezos agreed to buy the Washington Post, and the seeds of an ABC-Disney merger were planted, for example.

This year at the "summer camp for billionaires," the Israel-Gaza war, the 2024 election, and artificial intelligence are surely on the agenda, along with rounds of golf and guided hikes.

While an official guest list is not publicized, the private planes touching down at Sun Valley's Friedman Memorial Airport give us a preview of the shoulder rubbing to come this time around.

Tuesday morning, the airport began experiencing heavy traffic hailing from tony locations like Aspen, Colorado, and Nantucket, Massachusetts, before the conference kickoff. According to the aircraft-tracking website FlightAware, over 165 private planes are scheduled to fly in throughout the day.

Some private aircraft are associated with companies. Nike's Gulfstream G650 jet, for example, is on FlightAware's list and likely carrying regular Sun Valley attendee, CEO John Donahoe. Brokerage firm Invemed Securities has a Bombardier Global 5000 private plane scheduled to fly in, too, likely carrying its billionaire CEO and major Republican donor Kenneth Langone.

Other notable names reported to be on the invite list include OpenAI's Sam Altman, Shari Redstone, who just sealed a deal to sell Paramount to Skydance Global, and Disney CEO Bob Iger, who is rumored to bring his potential successors along.

Some may take a page from the book of regular Sun Valley attendee and Apple CEO Tim Cook, who has taken to chartering flights instead of using corporate planes to avoid jet trackers.

Dozens of Idaho-bound charters from companies like NetJets, FlexJets, and Vista are also scheduled to fly in — the latter company Taylor Swift used to try to fly incognito to February's Super Bowl.

FlightAware doesn't include planes using privacy protection programs set up by the Federal Aviation Administration to block their travels from jet-tracking websites that use FAA data. Sun Valley-goers Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, and Mark Zuckerberg, for example, regularly cloak their flights.

However, these programs do not impact public websites like ADS-B Exchange, which uses third-party flight data and makes tracking celebrity planes flying to the conference still possible.

Sun Valley's influx of private jets can be a headache for the small airport due to limited parking space and the congested skies.

In years past, the airport spent months preparing for the increased operations to minimize the traffic jams. In 2022, The New York Times reported the airport had to accommodate over 300 flights compared to the typical 40 planes on a normal day.

At the time, airport director Chris Pomeroy said that jets would sometimes have to circle the airport for over an hour, waiting for a runway to open.

This year, the airport's fixed-based operator, Atlantic Aviation, which provides things like fuel and parking to private aircraft, has added a special event fee due to the increased airport traffic. A spokesperson for the airport did not respond to a request for comment.

• Kamala Harris is sticking by Biden's side, though she remains his likeliest replacement.
• Harris would likely choose a relatively moderate white man as her running mate.
• A few governors, some from swing states, are emerging as favorites, sources told the NYT.

Kamala Harris may be publicly sticking by Biden as he fights to save his campaign, but that's not stopping other Democrats from considering her as his most likely replacement. Should Harris soar to the top of the ticket, she would probably choose a moderate white man as her vice president, two people close to the Biden-Harris camp told the New York Times.

Harris would become the first Black and Asian American female nominee of a major party, and a palatable veep would help temper the shock of her nomination in this age of identity politics. Govs. Roy Cooper of North Carolina, Andy Beshear of Kentucky, and Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania are emerging as potential candidates, the aides said.

Cooper looks like the favorite right now. A southern moderate, he has worked alongside North Carolina's Republican legislature since winning a tough battle for the governorship in 2016. Before serving as governor, Cooper was the state's attorney general for nearly 16 years. He met Harris during that time, when she was the attorney general in California. Some Dems think that North Carolina is up for grabs in November and Cooper could help potentially flip the state.

As the governor of Kentucky, Beshear doesn't offer the same opportunity to turn a red state blue. He did, however, attract some attention after winning another term in deep-red Kentucky last year. Beshear also served as attorney general prior to his governorship, giving him an additional point of connection to Harris.

Shapiro has something that the White House sorely lacks at the moment: good polling numbers. According to a poll from January, he has a higher approval rating than other recent Pennsylvania governors, with 59% approving of his performance. Pennsylvania is a key swing state and Beshear's popularity there could help tip the scales in Democrats' favor.

As whispers about Harris turn to light chatter, she is staying silent on the question of her candidacy, let alone her potential vice president. She knows that these discussions would risk a leak, and a leak would risk undermining her loyalty, allies told The times.

But so long as Biden keeps teetering, the question about her potential running-mate remains wide open.

• The US economy will avoid a recession due to AI, immigration, and high-income consumers, said Michael Arone.
• AI will boost productivity and immigration will dampen inflation, the State Street investment strategist said.
• "A restrictive Fed won't stop the music this time around because the economy's moving to a new rhythm," Arone said.

The US economy will keep growing and ultimately avoid a recession thanks to artificial intelligence, immigration, and rich people.

That's according to State Street chief investment strategist Michael Arone, who said in a recent note that even as the Federal Reserve keeps monetary policy in restrictive territory via high interest rates, that won't be enough to send the economy into a tailspin.

"The risks are growing that the stubborn Fed gradually then suddenly puts the economy in recession," he said. "But the economy may narrowly escape the dreaded recession outcome for these three reasons."

'Artificial intelligence is the real deal'

Even though AI technologies are in the early innings, Arone says they hold a lot of promise for boosting economic productivity, increasing company profits, and igniting further growth for businesses.

"Recent studies assert that AI can improve productivity across a wide range of jobs by 20% to 80%. That compares favorably to another general-purpose technology, steam power," he said.

Arone notes that steam power sparked the Industrial Revolution, and that technology increased productivity by just 18% to 22% when it was installed in factories.

If AI can improve productivity by a multiple of that, it could unlock significant economic benefits in the future — and those benefits should more than outweigh any policy mistake by the Fed, Arone said.

'Immigration delivers surprising economic benefits'

Americans can thank immigrants for the continued progress in battling inflation, according to Arone.

"Many people underappreciated the role that increasing immigration has played in stabilizing the post-pandemic labor market without further flattering inflationary pressures," he said.

Wage inflation soared during the early days of the pandemic, which stoked overall inflation to a cycle peak of 9.1% in June 2022. But the influx of more than 1.5 million immigrants in 2023 helped balance out supply and demand in the labor market, Arone said.

"The pace of immigration increases over the past couple of years is consistent with past economic expansions. And, with job openings remaining elevated in immigrant-dependent service industries, participation rates are likely to increase over the next two years, further boosting the labor market," he said.

Arone also notes that the increase in immigrants can have a compounding impact on the US economy overtime. He says while this set of workers will typically take low-skill service jobs upon their arrival in the country, some of them will become entrepreneurs and stoke innovation, consumption, and fiscal contributions.

'High-end consumers are in great shape'

For all the concerns about rising delinquency rates and more than $1 trillion in credit card debt, Arone says the high-income cohort of the US population is in strong financial shape.

He says that's important because people who earn $150,000 or more are responsible for a 40% of US consumer spending.

"They own 85% of stocks, 80% of bonds, and two-thirds of liquid assets. Yet, they only make up about one-third of consumer credit card balances," Arone said, citing data from Empirical Research Partners.

This demographic is on pace to see their wages grow 5% this year, and they are expected to increase their spending by 8% this year, which could be even higher if inflation continues to fall and stock and home prices continue to rise, Arone said.

"In a departure from past periods, higher stock and home prices combined with a significant increase in their interest income has enabled top earners to spend solidly throughout this tighter monetary policy cycle," he said.

Taken together, this suggests to Arone that the US economy is on track for solid growth in the coming quarters and will ultimately avoid a recession, and that should enable a continued rise in the stock market.

"A restrictive Fed won't stop the music this time around because the economy's moving to a new rhythm," he said.

• Russia appears to have changed its tactics in its Monday missile barrage, making it tougher on Ukrainian defenders.
• War analysts say Russia may be innovating its tactics, and possibly its technology as well.
• ISW said the intent is to "maximize damage."

Russia seems to have changed tactics in a Monday missile strike that struck targets across Ukraine, including a children's hospital, to "maximize damage," war analysts said.

"Unfortunately, the enemy is constantly improving not only reconnaissance and strike UAVs, but also other means of air attack — cruise and ballistic missiles," former Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Col. Yuriy Ihnat said on Facebook regarding Russia's latest barrage of cruise and ballistic missiles.

Ihnat said that some of Russia's missiles flew at incredibly low altitudes, with some flying as low as 50 meters, making them more difficult to shoot down.

"People on the ground sometimes squeeze the impossible out of available weapons and equipment to shoot down as many Russian missiles and drones as possible," he said. He said that out of the 44 Russian missiles launched, Ukraine was able to shoot down 33.

The weapons that broke through, like the Kh-101 cruise missile that struck the Okhmatdyt Children's Hospital in Kyiv, may have been able to do so because the Russians "may have innovated their tactics and/or technology," war experts said, noting Ukraine has been pretty good at shooting down Russian cruise missiles.

Analysts at the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War suggest that Russian changes are likely intended to "inflict maximum damage on Ukrainian infrastructure by giving Ukrainian air defense practically no time to respond until the missile is already within close range of the ground."

In addition to launching missiles at extremely low altitudes, Ihnat said Russia has also improved the capabilities of its missiles with approaches like heat trap technology designed to fool air defenses. Other innovations may make weapons harder to detect.

"Russia has consistently adapted the strike packages it uses against Ukraine to take advantage of Ukraine's air defense shortages," ISW said, "and the July 8 strikes represent a new and adapted strike package that Ukraine will need to learn to respond to with requisite levels of Western-provided air defense systems."

Russia's missiles struck targets in several cities, including the Okhmatdyt Children's Hospital in Kyiv, on Monday, killing at least 39 people, per the latest figures.

The Russian Ministry of Defense denied claims that it intentionally targeted Ukraine's civilian infrastructure and argued that the weapon that struck the hospital was actually a Ukrainian surface-to-air missile.

Although Russia has attacked civilian centers on many occasions, the Kremlin has often claimed that it does not target civilian infrastructure.

In the aftermath of Monday's strike, weapons and war experts, citing visual evidence of the strike, argued that Russia is "gaslighting" because the weapon that struck the hospital was definitely a Russian Kh-101 cruise missile.

• After working on cruise ships for nearly 10 years, there are some things I'd never do on board. 
• I'd take advantage of the cruise line's digital app but would skip paying for a virtual balcony.
• I've found booking excursions independently isn't worth the cheaper price. 

After working on various cruise ships all over the world for nearly a decade, I know a lot about their inner workings, from the best onboard activities to the tastiest dining options.

But with this knowledge, there are also things I'd now never do on ships. 

I wouldn't skip downloading the cruise line's digital app 

We're living in a digital age, so most major cruise lines have apps that provide all of the essential information for your vacation.

These apps include logistics like port times, activities, and dress codes. Plus you can often use them to make dining and show reservations. Some can even unlock your cabin door or make a personal calendar of your events.

Excursions booked independently of the ship come with extra risks 

Excursions booked through the ship come with the guarantee that if your tour runs late, the ship will wait for it to return.

Many guests book external tours for a cheaper price, but it's often not worth it. I've seen my fair share of passengers running down the pier and missing the ship.

Excursions booked through the cruise are the safest option if you're worried about your ship leaving without you. 

Lining up to get off the ship first usually gets you nowhere 

Every time the ship pulls into port, it's not uncommon for passengers to congregate near the gangway exits, crowding the staircases and hallways.

This can be difficult for the ship since customs officers often have to come on board and inspect these areas.

Crowding can be a major no-no and can delay ship clearance, so most of the time, the crew ends up sending these guests back upstairs to wait. If you're hard-pressed to get off early, look into buying a shore excursion that grants you a priority exit once the ship is cleared. 

I wouldn't book a virtual balcony 

Some ships offer virtual balconies, a large screen with ocean views, but I don't think they're worth it. 

You pay more money for a screen to show you the outside world, and a lot of the time, the electronic adds some heat to the room. If you want a view, spring for an actual balcony or get a window instead. 

There's no need to pack prohibited items

Certain items like irons, steamers, and liquor are usually not permitted on cruise ships, but guests often pack them anyway. You may think you can get away with it, but luggage gets scanned in the terminal.

If you have any prohibited items, your bags will be held longer in the security area and may not be delivered to your room until later. Your belongings can also be confiscated until the end of the cruise. 

Removing gratuities can affect the livelihood of the crew

Cruise ships typically charge automatic gratuities that are split between a few different departments and are essential to many crew members' paychecks.

But they're not mandatory to keep, and many guests remove them when they get on board.

Unless you're going to tip the staff individually, removing the gratuities affects the income of crew members and their families.

I wouldn't eat at the same spot every night 

I know a lot of guests are glued to their favorite food spots on the ship, from the buffet to the main dining room, but one of the best parts of cruising is the delicious and diverse eateries.

Some options are included while others are an extra cost, but I've found you typically get way more bang for your buck while dining at onboard restaurants. 

This story was originally published on October 5, 2022, and most recently updated on July 9, 2024.

• Years ago, I quit my desk job in NYC to work as an entertainment host for a major cruise line.
• The first few weeks were overwhelming, but I quickly adjusted to the lifestyle.  
• The living quarters were incredibly small, and there were mandatory weekly inspections.  

After I graduated from college with a journalism degree, I got a job at a highly regarded publication in New York City.

However, my two-hour commute and crowded cubicle were anything but glamorous. I started getting stress-induced bald spots and endlessly scrolled through Instagram, desperate to find a way to make a living as a nomad.

When I learned that onboard cruise-ship employees get a paycheck while traveling and meeting new people every day, I auditioned to be an entertainment host for a major cruise line. When I got the job, I left New York for good on my first contract, which lasted seven months.

Now, I've worked on cruise ships for nearly a decade and have visited 79 countries. Here are seven things that first surprised me most about working on a cruise.

I've barely met any other Americans working on cruise ships

The first day I boarded a cruise ship, my crew members coined me "Erica from America" since I was just one of nine American employees.

I've noticed similar numbers since. Crew members come from all over the world, and I've always found a very small percentage of Americans working on board.

Even years later, everyone in my life calls me Erica from America — and it's the name on my TikTok handle.

The first week of working on a ship can be incredibly overwhelming and stressful 

Safety is the most important thing on cruises. So, whether a crew member is a brand-new hire or they've been working there for 20 years, they have to complete safety training during the first few weeks — and that's in addition to their regular job prep.

Between presenting all of my medical paperwork to officers to learning about fire codes, I've always found the crews' onboarding process intimidating.

The first day I walked on a ship, I learned how to operate a deadly, watertight door. I cried in the bathroom every day for a week straight. The requirements were a lot to handle, especially after hours of travel, but life on board got so much easier after the first few weeks.

The crew cabins are seriously cramped

On the ships where I've worked, the crew cabins are about half the size of a walk-in closet, and the wardrobes have just enough space to fit five hangers on each side. Not to mention, I've usually lived in those tiny spaces with two other employees I don't know.

The cabins typically also have a mini fridge and a flat-screen TV that can swing to face the top bunk.

The bathroom is usually so tiny that I can bathe, brush my teeth, and use the toilet without taking barely any steps. Showers are often so small that the curtain clings to my butt when I'm in it.

My roommates and I also have to prepare for mandatory cabin inspections once per week, which is when staff checks that our quarters are orderly.

The dating culture is dramatic but can also be amazing

I expected to experience college-like drama on the ship, but the reality was even wilder.

As a crew member, I'm often surrounded by adults who are away from home for nine months at a time, working extremely hard, and trotting around the world.

Some are married, some are single, and some are married but "single" on ships. Many of the people I meet are truly amazing partners, but others are not. Life on a ship brings many heartbreaks, but it also leads to plenty of amazing love stories.

It wasn't hard for me to adjust to the lifestyle

Working on a ship isn't for everyone, and I've seen many people quit within their first month.

Some crew members work eight to 12 hours per day, with no days off, for seven months straight. However, my coworkers love this lifestyle and their jobs. If you don't, you probably won't make it very long on board. 

Working on a ship, we wake up in a different country virtually every day and appreciate every free moment. Being part of such an amazing group of people is the most special experience I've ever had. I feel such a sense of community and morale with the other crew members.

Contracts can vary, but I often have time to relax for a few months between them where I can eat junk food, sleep all day, and catch up on pop culture. 

Crew life is a blast, even after work

Cruise-ship crews are known for partying after work, and in my experience, that's partially true. However, there are very strict alcohol policies for the staff when they're working, so learning a level of self-control is crucial.

There's usually an onboard bar for crew members, where the drinks are cheap and the parties are so much fun. Ships usually have a human-resource team on board that plans events for the crew, offers support, and organizes onshore crew tours.

Some cruise employees, like entertainment hosts, get more time off in the ports than others because they don't interact with guests as much when the ship is docked. I've been lucky to explore parts of the world I never thought I'd see in person. I've gone dogsledding in Alaska, run around Petra, and gone cave-diving for glowworms in New Zealand.

This journey can feel full of love but also lonely 

Although I've made amazing friends who feel like family since boarding my first ship, I realized that I'm truly on my own throughout this journey.

It's special to be surrounded by hundreds of crew members and passengers, but no one will ever experience things exactly the same way I do.

I feel close to other crew members because of our shared lifestyle on the water. However, when I return home from a contract, I sometimes find it harder to relate to land-based friends and family. Still, I'm so lucky to have a supportive family who visits me a lot.

It's hard to describe my lifestyle to people who have never experienced ship life. The truth is that I can feel lonely at times, but living on the ships is the most enthralling and fulfilling thing I've ever chosen to do. 

This story was originally published on May 10, 2021, and most recently updated on July 9, 2024.

• Joseph Stiglitz and other Nobel Prize-winning economists are worried about another Trump administration.
• They explained why in a letter, and Stiglitz further explained in a Business Insider interview in June.
• Inflation is one concern, which has cooled from its peak in 2022.

Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz told Business Insider in a June interview the US economy is "remarkably strong."

However, Stiglitz and others foresee a potential resurgence of inflation and other woes depending on who wins the next presidential election.

"I think general consensus, not just my view, but almost anybody modeling what is going on would say the Trump administration would be more inflationary," Stiglitz told BI. "How much more depends on how radical they are. And that depends on where Congress is. If they have a Democratic Congress, they won't have the ability to do what they would do with a Republican Congress."

The Republican National Committee this week adopted Trump's 2024 platform. Among the promises in the agenda was to "END INFLATION, AND MAKE AMERICA AFFORDABLE AGAIN."

Stiglitz recently spearheaded a letter signed by over a dozen Nobel Prize-winning economists. The letter, which was first obtained by Axios, stated the economists were "deeply concerned about the risks of a second Trump administration for the U.S. economy."

The economists predicted dire results from a Trump victory this fall. "The outcome of this election will have economic repercussions for years, and possibly decades, to come," the letter stated. "We believe that a second Trump term would have a negative impact on the U.S.'s economic standing in the world and a destabilizing effect on the U.S.'s domestic economy."

FiveThirtyEight reports as of its last update on July 8 that its "model thinks the presidential election could go either way."

Business Insider talked to Stiglitz in June before the presidential debate about the economy if Trump is once again president. Stiglitz said the widely shared view is this could result in higher inflation, worse inequality, and a potential broader economic slowdown. Massive progress has already been made in cooling off inflation.

Stiglitz pointed out how remarkably the inflation rate had cooled down without leading to high unemployment. The US unemployment rate had been at or under 4% since the end of 2021, a historically long stretch of low joblessness, before the unemployment rate increased to 4.1% this past June.

Stiglitz noted Trump's promise of large increases in tariffs as one of the things that could make inflation worse.

"Those tariffs overwhelmingly get passed on to consumers and increasing their prices and get fed down the supply chain — again, increasing prices to consumers," Stiglitz said.

Another could be the large decrease in taxes Trump proposed "that are not paid for and increasing the budgetary deficit from the level that it is today," Stiglitz said.

"And given where we are, I think the broad assessment is that that would be inflationary," he said. "And the broad assessment of the consequences of that is that the Fed would be forced to raise interest rates, and all that combined would still serve to increase inflation even as unemployment increased and GDP slowed."

A third factor that could juice inflation would be the "drastic reductions in immigration" that Trump has proposed, Stiglitz said.

There are different sectors of the US economy that rely on immigration, and Stiglitz said that the tight labor market could become even tighter with this drop in immigration.

Stiglitz also pointed to the possibility of a partial or full repeal of the Inflation Reduction Act, which included a Medicare prescription drug provision, among other things. "Without that, which Republicans had talked about repealing, drug prices will go up."

Outside of the risks to inflation, Stiglitz said a Trump presidency could also mean a slowing GDP. Another problem that could get worse is the inequality crisis.

Stiglitz pointed to Trump's tax policy as one that could boost inequality.

"The tax cut is a tax cut for the corporations and the billionaires," Stiglitz said. "If you look at the share of the tax cuts that go to the bottom, very small. In fact, in some of my analysis I suggested that it's even possible that some parts of the bottom would see a tax increase."

CNN and others noted statements from the Trump campaign disagreeing with the letter that the 16 economists signed.

"The American people don't need worthless out of touch Nobel prize winners to tell them which president put more money in their pockets," Karoline Leavitt, the Trump campaign's national press secretary, told CNN in a statement. "Americans know we cannot afford four more years of Bidenomics, and when President Trump is back in the White House, he will reimplement his pro-growth, pro-energy, pro-jobs agenda to bring down the cost of living and uplift all Americans."

• Skydance, the film studio owned by David Ellison, will merge with Paramount in an $8 billion deal.
• Skydance's biggest backer is private equity firm RedBird, a top player in sports and media.
• Meet the mastermind behind RedBird, ex-Goldman Sachs partner and Yankees dealmaker Gerry Cardinale.

After months of negotiations, Paramount has inked a merger agreement with film studio Skydance Media, owned by David Ellison, son of billionaire Oracle founder Larry.

A key player in the negotiations is Skydance's private equity backer RedBird Capital Partners. The Ellison family and RedBird will invest $6 billion and $2 billion, respectively, to take over Paramount and bolster its balance sheet. The merged entity, dubbed "New Paramount," will stay public.

An investor in Skydance since 2020, RedBird is the media company's largest shareholder other than the Ellison family. In the 10 years since its founding, RedBird has emerged as a top dealmaker in sports and entertainment with $10 billion in assets.

Founder and chief executive Gerry Cardinale made his name at Goldman Sachs as the banker to the New York Yankees, the Dallas Cowboys, and the NFL. The merger comes as "incumbent media companies are increasingly challenged by technological disintermediation," Cardinale said in a press release.

"Paramount has the intellectual property foundation to ensure longevity through this evolution — but it will require a new generation of visionary leadership together with experienced operational management to navigate this next phase," he added.

RedBird, owner of football club AC Milan since 2022, has been on a shopping spree. In May, it acquired All3Media, the TV and film production company behind "Fleabag," for £1.15 billion (some $1.4 billion). It attempted to buy the UK newspaper, the Telegraph, before withdrawing in April. Last month, RedBird joined forces with Weatherford Capital to launch an investment fund for collegiate sports.

David Ellison will helm New Paramount as its CEO. Jeff Shell, ex-NBCUniversal CEO and current chairman of sports and media at RedBird, will report to Ellison as president.

The deal is typical of Cardinale's playbook. RedBird isn't a typical buyout firm, instead installing new management and leveraging intellectual properties to build larger businesses. Skydance has already successfully co-produced the "Top Gun" reboot with Paramount and holds the rights to produce and finance other Paramount properties, including Transformers.

"I think it's my biggest competitive advantage that I don't get emotionally attached," Cardinale told Business Insider in 2022. "They're all pieces of intellectual property that have a legitimate right to be monetized as long as they balance the fan-social contract at the same time."

Business Insider spoke with 27 of Cardinale's colleagues and peers to learn more about his winning strategy. One of his superpowers, many said, is his relationship savvy. Many of RedBird's business partnerships date back to his Goldman days.

"He had a knack for developing relationships with entrepreneurs, particularly those with more of a maverick style," said Jon Winkelried, the CEO of TPG and the former copresident of Goldman Sachs. "There are a lot of smart investors who can run the numbers, who can figure out the cash flows, but it is very hard to get high-powered people who have accomplished a lot to want to allocate some of their valuable time to you. People want to spend their time with Gerry."

READ THE FULL STORY: How Gerry Cardinale became the go-to dealmaker for the Yankees, AC Milan, and Ben Affleck