Author: openjargon

  • Gavin Newsom has some big fans backing him for a 2024 presidential run — but they’re in China

    Gov. Gavin Newsom speaking to reporters on Thursday after the first presidential debate of 2024.
    "The California governor is really suitable to be president. He's so handsome," a user of Chinese social media platform Weibo said on Saturday.

    • Gov. Gavin Newsom has brushed aside calls for him to replace President Joe Biden on the ballot.
    • But the California Gov. has some fans in China, and they want him to step up.
    • One user said that Newsom is good looking and is "really suitable to be president." 

    Gov. Gavin Newsom might have maintained his support for President Joe Biden, but Newsom's Chinese fans think it's time for him to lead his country.

    "The California governor is really suitable to be president. He's so handsome," one user wrote on the Chinese social media platform Weibo on Saturday.

    Some said that Newsom's speaking style reminded them of former President Bill Clinton and that the California Democrat had a "bright future" ahead of him.

    "Biden should have voluntarily stepped aside a long time ago. But even then, Newsom is waiting in the wings and has been playing a critical role in the Democratic Party," a user named Zheng Jun said in a Weibo post on the same day. "When the opportunity arises, he will be best prepared to seize it."

    The goodwill for Newsom appears to stem from his last trip to China, which took place in October. During his trip, Newsom spent a week visiting Hong Kong, Beijing, and Shanghai, as well as the provinces of Guangdong and Jiangsu.

    Following his visit, Newsom said in an interview with CNN's Christiane Amanpour that he didn't want the US-China bilateral relationship to deteriorate because the two countries are "interdependent."

    "Divorce is not an option. We have to define the terms of the future. We have to live together across our differences," Newsom told Amanpour.

    Representatives for Newsom did not immediately respond to a request for comment from BI sent outside regular business hours.

    To be sure, the support for Newsom on Weibo wasn't unanimous. Some believed that, given his record running California, Newsom would be a disastrous replacement candidate.

    "If Newsom becomes President, the US will be even more screwed. Just look at at the homeless people and illegal immigrants running around San Francisco and Los Angeles," one user wrote in a comment to Zheng Jun's post.

    "Throw in those high taxes and the US will eventually turn into a place that exploits the middle class while raising homeless people," the comment added.

    Dealing with homelessness in California has been a significant priority for Newsom. The Golden State has long housed a disproportionate share of the nation's homeless population.

    According to a study by the Benioff Homelessness and Housing Initiative at the University of California, San Francisco, the state makes up less than 12% of the nation's total population but is home to 30% of people experiencing homelessness.

    Rumblings of a potential Newsom ticket have grown after Biden's disastrous performance at last week's presidential debate. The 81-year-old's exchanges with his GOP rival, former President Donald Trump was riddled with gaffes and stumbles.

    Newsom, for his part, has continued to brush aside calls for him to replace Biden on the ballot.

    "You don't turn your back because of one performance. What kind of party does that?" Newsom told MSNBC's Alex Wagner on Thursday. "The president has delivered. We need to deliver for him at this moment."

    Read the original article on Business Insider
  • Down 70% in a year, this ASX stock has just entered voluntary administration

    a person slumped over a pile of books while reading them with bookshelves in the background.

    Retail data released today shows a boost in sales, but the news offers little comfort for one troubled ASX stock.

    According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, retail turnover increased 0.6% in May. As my colleague Bernd Struben noted, retailers won’t be celebrating yet, with much of the growth attributed to shoppers cashing in on discounted end-of-year sales.

    It’s a relatively uninspiring update for ASX retail shares. The data indicates an industry still hobbled by high interest rates, an environment that has partially slain another Australian business today.

    Which ASX stock is looking for a lifeline?

    The outcome of a strategic review at Booktopia Group Ltd (ASX: BKG) has been announced after the company entered a trading halt on 13 June.

    Australia’s largest online bookstore has entered voluntary administration.

    As per the announcement, Booktopia is now in the hands of specialist advisory and restructuring firm McGrathNicol.

    Partners Keith Crawford, Matthew Caddy, and Damien Pasfield are the acting administrators conducting an ‘urgent assessment’ of Booktopia’s options, including a sale or recapitalisation of the company.

    Data by Trading View

    The dire situation follows more than three years of lacklustre performance since the stock popped onto the ASX. During this time, the company’s debt has grown alongside a dwindling cash pile, consumed by unprofitable operations, as depicted in the chart above.

    On 31 March 2024, Booktopia had $212,000 in cash and $959,000 in undrawn finance facilities. However, based on recent negative free cash flows, this would be enough to last a month or two.

    What’s next?

    Trading in Booktopia shares will remain suspended while the administrators try to revive the struggling business. By Monday, 15 July, a meeting with creditors, entities to which Booktopia owes money, will occur.

    The ASX stock is down 72% over the last year. For those who have been invested since its public debut, shares are 98.4% lower, last trading at 4.5 cents apiece.

    The post Down 70% in a year, this ASX stock has just entered voluntary administration appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Should you invest $1,000 in Booktopia Group Limited right now?

    Before you buy Booktopia Group Limited shares, consider this:

    Motley Fool investing expert Scott Phillips just revealed what he believes are the 5 best stocks for investors to buy right now… and Booktopia Group Limited wasn’t one of them.

    The online investing service he’s run for over a decade, Motley Fool Share Advisor, has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    And right now, Scott thinks there are 5 stocks that may be better buys…

    See The 5 Stocks
    *Returns as of 24 June 2024

    More reading

    Motley Fool contributor Mitchell Lawler has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended Booktopia Group. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

  • AML3D share price surges another 38% today! What’s going on?

    A man in his 30s holds his laptop and operates it with his other hand as he has a look of pleasant surprise on his face as though he is learning something new or finding hidden value in something on the screen.

    Investors in ASX defence stocks are buzzing as the AML3D Ltd (ASX: AL3) share price surged another 37.7% to close at 14 cents apiece on Wednesday. This follows an enormous run for the ASX small-cap stock, which has rallied more than 125% in a month.

    It is up almost 70% this week alone.

    Comparatively, the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index (ASX: XJO) has lifted 6.8% over the past 12 months.

    Let’s dive into what’s driving this performance and whether it’s a trend that could continue.

    Why is the AML3D share price soaring?

    The impressive rally in the ALM3D share price is most likely attributed to several positive developments for the company.

    This week, AML3D announced a $1.1 million sale of its 2600 Edition ARCEMY system to Laser Welding Solutions, a supplier to the US Navy.

    This system will support Laser’s alloy qualification program, which has been operational under a lease agreement since September 2023. The deal includes a one-year service and maintenance contract, adding to AML3D’s recurring revenue stream.

    Earlier in the year, back in February, AML3D reported a 936% increase in half-year revenues to $1.51 million, compared to $146,115 in the prior corresponding period.

    In May, the company secured a $350,000 contract with the Australian Government, alongside a $1.54 million order from the US Department of Defence.

    AML3D then received a $1.12 million grant from the South Australian Economic Recovery Fund to develop its proprietary metal 3D printing technology.

    These achievements have positioned the AML3D share price front and centre of the ASX aerospace and defence basket at the start of FY25.

    What’s next for AML3D?

    While AML3D has been making headlines, it’s worth noting that other ASX defence-related stocks, like DroneShield Ltd (ASX: DRO), have also seen significant gains.

    DroneShield shares, for instance, have posted a 617% increase over the past year and more than 410% return year-to-date in 2024. It, too, had a number of recent contract wins with the US Government.

    The question is, will AML3D’s contract wins and rapid revenue growth suggest its share price has a similar potential for future outsized returns as well?

    AML3D is focused on getting its advanced manufacturing technology in with the US Navy supply chain. Its announcement on the ARCEMY sale to the Navy on Tuesday made a detailed note of this.

    The company’s CEO, Sean Ebert, expressed confidence in AML3D’s ability to capitalise on opportunities within the US Defence sector, saying:

    The continuing momentum within our US scale-up strategy underpins the investment we are making in our US manufacturing hub and headquarters at Ohio. We are looking to maximize the opportunities we have across the US Defence sector, especially the Navy’s submarine industrial base, but also across US-based, global Tier 1 Oil & Gas, Marine and Aerospace companies.

    Foolish takeaway

    AML3D’s recent performance and promising outlook could make it an exciting prospect for investors.

    However, as with any high-growth stocks, potential investors should remain mindful of the risks and volatility involved. Keep an eye on AML3D’s future announcements to gauge whether this upward momentum can be sustained.

    The post AML3D share price surges another 38% today! What’s going on? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Should you invest $1,000 in Aml3d Limited right now?

    Before you buy Aml3d Limited shares, consider this:

    Motley Fool investing expert Scott Phillips just revealed what he believes are the 5 best stocks for investors to buy right now… and Aml3d Limited wasn’t one of them.

    The online investing service he’s run for over a decade, Motley Fool Share Advisor, has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    And right now, Scott thinks there are 5 stocks that may be better buys…

    See The 5 Stocks
    *Returns as of 24 June 2024

    More reading

    Motley Fool contributor Zach Bristow has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended DroneShield. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

  • 3 top ASX retirement shares to buy for FY25

    Older couple enjoying the backyard

    If you’re currently building a retirement portfolio then you may be on the lookout for some ASX shares to add to it.

    The good news is there is no shortage of quality options to choose from on the Australian share market.

    But which ones could be buys right now? Let’s take a look at three that analysts rate as buys:

    CSL Limited (ASX: CSL)

    The first ASX retirement share to look at is CSL. It is one of the world’s leading biotechnology companies.

    CSL has been growing at a solid rate for years thanks to its in-demand product portfolio, investment in research and development, and acquisitions. The former includes therapies such as Privigen, Hizentra, Idelvion, and Afstyla.

    And while its shares don’t provide any meaningful income, they could provide strong returns over the coming years. That’s because Macquarie has an outperform rating and $330.00 price target on them. The broker also sees potential for its shares to rise beyond $500 in the next three years thanks to its positive outlook.

    Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS)

    A second ASX retirement share that could be a buy is telco giant Telstra.

    It arguably ticks a lot of boxes when it comes to retirement portfolio holdings. That’s because it has defensive qualities, a good dividend yield, and a positive growth outlook.

    In respect to the latter, Goldman Sachs highlights that its “low risk earnings (and dividend) growth” across FY 2022 to FY 2025 is “attractive.”

    Speaking of dividends, Goldman Sachs is forecasting fully franked dividends per share of 18 cents in FY 2024 and 18.5 cents in FY 2025. Based on the current Telstra share price of $3.62, this will mean yields of 5% and 5.1%, respectively.

    The broker also sees decent upside for its shares with its buy rating and $4.25 price target.

    Transurban Group (ASX: TCL)

    A third ASX retirement share to consider is Transurban. It is the toll road giant with a portfolio of roads across Australia and North America. In addition, it has a significant project pipeline that should support its long-term growth.

    As with Telstra, Transurban has defensive qualities. After all, these roads are always in need, particularly given population growth and urbanisation. It also has positive exposure to inflation, which is a good thing in the current environment.

    Citi currently has a buy rating and $15.50 price target on its shares. It also expects 5%+ dividend yields in the coming years.

    The post 3 top ASX retirement shares to buy for FY25 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Should you invest $1,000 in CSL right now?

    Before you buy CSL shares, consider this:

    Motley Fool investing expert Scott Phillips just revealed what he believes are the 5 best stocks for investors to buy right now… and CSL wasn’t one of them.

    The online investing service he’s run for over a decade, Motley Fool Share Advisor, has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    And right now, Scott thinks there are 5 stocks that may be better buys…

    See The 5 Stocks
    *Returns as of 24 June 2024

    More reading

    Citigroup is an advertising partner of The Ascent, a Motley Fool company. Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in CSL. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL, Goldman Sachs Group, Macquarie Group, and Transurban Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group and Telstra Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

  • Down 22% in FY24, what’s in store for Domino’s Pizza shares in FY25?

    domino's pizza share price

    Domino’s Pizza Enterprises Ltd (ASX: DMP) shares had a difficult end to FY24 and are down 27% in the past 12 months. They are currently swapping hands at $35.02 per share.

    Meanwhile, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is around 2% higher over the same time.

    Investors were quick to unload their stock in the company after it released a trading update in January, advising its H1 FY24 profit numbers were lower than expected.

    The forewarning – whilst polite – was not received well by the market. The stock fell from above $57 to $39.50 in just one session.

    I’m not sure the FY24 listing of Guzman Y Gomez Ltd (ASX: GYG) made things any easier for the stock either.

    As we look ahead to FY25, investors are keen to understand what the future might hold for Domino’s Pizza shares. Here’s what the experts are saying.

    Could Domino’s Pizza shares rebound in FY25?

    Analysts are optimistic about the potential for a rebound in Domino’s Pizza shares. According to investment bank Citi, based on its target price of $44.50 per share, Domino’s could see a 22% increase.

    This bullish outlook follows the company’s investor tour in France, where Citi analyst Sam Teeger noted the potential for “better days ahead” despite recent struggles.

    Analysts at Goldman Sachs also attended the tour. In a May note, the broker highlighted a positive shift in management’s focus towards improving store profitability.

    We view more positively a higher management commitment to store unit profitability via lifting Average Weekly Unit Sales (AWUS) largely via Average Weekly Order Count (AWOC) with a combination of higher aggregator contribution, fixing carry-out, new product development as well as higher brand marketing.

    It also notes the pizza chain’s new third-party partnerships, such as Uber Eats in France, as another potential driver of growth.

    What are the other drivers for Domino’s Pizza shares?

    Citi isn’t alone in its optimism. Ord Minnett also sees significant upside potential, rating Domino’s Pizza shares a buy with a price target of $44.40.

    Otherwise, the stock is rated a buy from the consensus of analyst estimates, per CommSec.

    This confidence stems from expected growth in sales and earnings as the company adapts to changing consumer preferences and market conditions.

    Domino’s long-term expansion strategy is a critical factor in this. According to my colleague Tristan, the company aims to approximately double its total store count by 2033.

    It is specifically targeting growth in Europe and Asia Pacific, but in Australia and New Zealand, it plans to reach 1,200 stores by 2027/2028. This growth may or may not positively affect Domino’s Pizza shares.

    Goldman Sachs explained that Domino’s management is focused on improving the company’s unit economics. Efforts include reducing food and delivery costs, increasing digital spending to attract new customers, and enhancing product quality and delivery times.

    The broker noted that “management will also lean further into digital initiatives, including Germany stepping up loyalty rewards in CY24, rolling out digital kiosks…”. Digital kiosks – what a time to be alive.

    Challenges and risks ahead

    Despite the optimistic projections, there still could be risks to consider. Morgan Stanley’s analysis into GLP-1 weightloss drugs highlights the potential impact of labels such as Ozempic.

    The thinking is that widespread use of the compound could reduce the consumption of high-calorie foods, including pizza. If correct, this could pose a challenge for Domino’s Pizza shares.

    Goldman Sachs also points out that while there is a positive shift towards improving store profitability, “current franchisee payback periods at ~4-5 years for Germany and Netherlands and ~4.5-6 years for France vs target of ~3 years” indicate that there is still work to be done.

    Foolish takeaway

    If Citi and Ord Minnett’s positive forecasts hold true, Domino’s shares could see a significant rebound in FY25. The company is positioned for potential growth with ambitious expansion plans and efforts to improve profitability. As always, it is crucial to weigh the risks and stay informed before investing.

    The post Down 22% in FY24, what’s in store for Domino’s Pizza shares in FY25? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Should you invest $1,000 in Domino’s Pizza Enterprises Limited right now?

    Before you buy Domino’s Pizza Enterprises Limited shares, consider this:

    Motley Fool investing expert Scott Phillips just revealed what he believes are the 5 best stocks for investors to buy right now… and Domino’s Pizza Enterprises Limited wasn’t one of them.

    The online investing service he’s run for over a decade, Motley Fool Share Advisor, has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    And right now, Scott thinks there are 5 stocks that may be better buys…

    See The 5 Stocks
    *Returns as of 24 June 2024

    More reading

    Citigroup is an advertising partner of The Ascent, a Motley Fool company. Motley Fool contributor Zach Bristow has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Domino’s Pizza Enterprises and Goldman Sachs Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Domino’s Pizza Enterprises. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

  • Why the CSL share price could be ‘undervalued’ at $293

    Donor donates blood in medical clinic. Beautiful European woman of 30 years sits in medical chair looking into camera and smiling.

    It’s been a fairly happy Wednesday for the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) and many ASX 200 shares so far today. At the time of writing, the ASX 200 is up a decent 0.25%, trading at 7,737.30 points. But the CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) share price is doing even better this hump day.

    CSL shares closed at $292.08 each yesterday evening. But today, the ASX 200 healthcare giant is up an enthusiastic 0.42% to $293.30.

    Now while that gain would obviously be a welcome one for CSL investors, it still leaves this company down by more than 4% from its February 52-week high of $306.42.

    But CSL owners would be used to a bit of stagnation by now.

    After all, this is a company that last saw an all-time high (over $340 a share) back in early 2020. since then, CSL has pretty much treaded water, barring an unfortunate episode last year that saw the company get down to under $230 a share. 

    Check that all out for yourself below:

    However, this CSL share price stagnation has caught the eyes of a few ASX experts.

    ASX experts rate CSL share price as a buy

    One such expert is Toby Grimm of Baker Young. Speaking to The Bull this week, Grimm gave CSL a ‘buy rating. Here’s what he said in full:

    This blood products company continues to screen as undervalued relative to its historic multiples and peers. New products and improving margins are expected to drive compound annual net profit growth of about 21 per cent over the next three years.

    No doubt CSL investors will find that view comforting.

    But Grimm isn’t the only one eyeing off CSL right now. As my Fool colleague James covered last month, ASX brokers Morgans and Macquarie both see value in the CSL share price at present.

    Morgans gave CSL an ‘add’ rating, as well as a 12-month share price target of $315.35:

    While shares have struggled of late, we continue to view CSL as a key portfolio holding and sector pick, offering double-digit recovery in earnings growth as plasma collections increase, new products get approved and influenza vaccine uptake increases around ongoing concerns about respiratory viruses, with shares trading at 25x, a substantial discount (20%) to its long-term average.

    Macquarie was even more bullish. It slapped the company with an ‘outperform’ rating, alongside a share price target of $330. Going even further, Macquarie also stated that it believes CSL might even be worth $500 a share by 2027, thanks to the strength of its Behring division.

    So, it seems that more than a couple of ASX experts see substantial value in CSL shares today. But let’s see what the next 12 months and beyond hold in store for this ASX 200 healthcare stock.

    The post Why the CSL share price could be ‘undervalued’ at $293 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Should you invest $1,000 in CSL right now?

    Before you buy CSL shares, consider this:

    Motley Fool investing expert Scott Phillips just revealed what he believes are the 5 best stocks for investors to buy right now… and CSL wasn’t one of them.

    The online investing service he’s run for over a decade, Motley Fool Share Advisor, has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    And right now, Scott thinks there are 5 stocks that may be better buys…

    See The 5 Stocks
    *Returns as of 24 June 2024

    More reading

    Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has positions in CSL. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL and Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

  • 2 ASX coal shares smashing new 52-week highs on Wednesday

    Three coal miners smiling while underground

    ASX coal shares had a volatile year in FY24. The price of coal sank to lows of around US$115 per tonne in February, before rebounding sharply and peaking at around US$147/tonne by May.

    They have since settled lower at US$132/tonne.

    This hasn’t stopped investors from lifting the bid on two Aussie coal giants on Wednesday.

    Whitehaven Coal Ltd (ASX: WHC) and Yancoal Australia Ltd (ASX: YAL) both touched new 52-week highs around lunchtime on Wednesday.

    Whitehaven shares hit highs of $8.95 shortly after midday, while Yancoal soared to $7.18 around the same time. Both have since cooled off slightly.

    Here’s a closer look at what may be behind the surge in these ASX coal shares.

    ASX coal shares hitting new highs

    We can likely attribute today’s rally to a combination of strong demand for coal, attractive dividends, and positive market sentiment.

    Despite no market-sensitive news since May, Yancoal shares have been on an upward ascent. On 1 May, they were trading at $5.54 apiece and are now at $7.14 — a 28.3% increase.

    According to my colleague Bernd, the recent forced halt in production at Anglo American‘s Grosvenor coking coal mine in Queensland due to an underground fire has also boosted investor interest.

    Production is expected to be down for several months, which has created a bullish sentiment for other ASX coal shares like Yancoal.

    Yancoal shares are up more than 50% over the past 12 months, outpacing the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) by more than 43%.

    Whitehaven Coal (ASX: WHC)

    Whitehaven shares have also seen significant gains in recent weeks. The stock closed out trading in June at $7.65 per share before exploding to its yearly high on Wednesday.

    It has whipsawed around 29% into the green over the past 12 months.

    While the company has not released any market-sensitive news today, the rise also looks to be linked to strength in the basket of ASX coal shares, supported by strong global demand and favourable coal prices.

    Global demand for coal is expected to grow, particularly from major importers like India and China. China plans to add 70 gigawatts of coal capacity this year, while India’s coal imports increased by 25% in 2023.

    This robust demand could support higher coal prices and benefit Australian coal producers, which would be positive for ASX coal shares.

    The company’s robust performance over the past year, along with attractive dividends, has made it a standout performer on the ASX.

    Foolish takeaway

    Both Whitehaven Coal and Yancoal have hit new 52-week highs as ASX coal shares catch a bid today. Even at the yearly highs, Yancoal trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 5, while Whitehaven has a P/E ratio of 5.50.

    The post 2 ASX coal shares smashing new 52-week highs on Wednesday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Should you invest $1,000 in Whitehaven Coal Limited right now?

    Before you buy Whitehaven Coal Limited shares, consider this:

    Motley Fool investing expert Scott Phillips just revealed what he believes are the 5 best stocks for investors to buy right now… and Whitehaven Coal Limited wasn’t one of them.

    The online investing service he’s run for over a decade, Motley Fool Share Advisor, has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    And right now, Scott thinks there are 5 stocks that may be better buys…

    See The 5 Stocks
    *Returns as of 24 June 2024

    More reading

    Motley Fool contributor Zach Bristow has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

  • Russia’s war-driven economy is so hot that the World Bank upgraded it to a ‘high-income country’

    Russian President, Vladimir Putin makes a toast.
    Russian President Vladimir Putin.

    • Russia's economy, boosted by military activity, is now classified as high-income by the World Bank.
    • Russia's GDP grew 3.6% in 2023, with trade and financial sectors rebounding.
    • The World Bank also upgraded Bulgaria and Palau, while the West Bank and Gaza were downgraded.

    Russia's economy has defied sanctions in the two years since Moscow invaded Ukraine in February 2022 — so much so that the World Bank is now classifying Russia as a "high-income country."

    On Monday, the World Bank announced it has upgraded Russia from an upper-middle-income country to a high-income country, according to a report from the financial institution's economists.

    "Economic activity in Russia was influenced by a large increase in military-related activity in 2023," World Bank economists wrote in their report.

    Last year, Russians earned $14,250 per person on a gross national income basis.

    The World Bank's upgrade confirms reports from Russia that suggest the growth is primarily driven by wartime activities that generate demand for military goods and services, making some sectors winners in Russia's wartime economy.

    Russia's trade jumped by nearly 7% last year, while activities in the financial sector and construction grew by 6.6% and 3.6%, respectively.

    This boosted Russia's real GDP — which is economic growth adjusted for inflation — by 3.6%.

    The development has made some poor Russians better off financially, complicating any calculus over how to end the war.

    The World Bank upgraded seven countries, downgraded West Bank and Gaza

    Other than Russia, the World Bank also upgraded Bulgaria and Palau from upper-middle-income to high-income countries. Their upgrades came after several years of post-pandemic growth.

    Ukraine also moved up from a lower-middle-income country to upper-middle-income country as real GDP grew 5.3% — reversing a steep 28.8% slump in 2022.

    "While Ukraine's economy was significantly impaired by Russia's invasion, real growth in 2023 was driven by construction activity (24.6%), reflecting a sizable increase in investment spending (52.9%) supporting Ukraine's reconstruction effort in the wake of ongoing destruction," the World Bank added.

    In all, the World Bank upgraded the classification of seven countries this year and downgraded just one country: West Bank and Gaza.

    West Bank and Gaza became an upper-middle-income country in 2023, but its economy was significantly impacted by its war with Israel.

    "The conflict in the Middle East began in October 2023, and while the impact on West Bank and Gaza was limited to the fourth quarter, its scale was nonetheless sufficient to lead to a 9.2% drop in nominal GDP," the World Bank economists wrote. West Bank and Gaza's GDP declined 5.5% in real terms.

    Read the original article on Business Insider
  • Why AMP says share markets ‘can continue to rally’ in FY25

    happy investor, share price rise, increase, up

    Now that we’ve entered FY25, it’s time to think about where the general direction of the market is heading. The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has drifted less than 2% into the green this year to date.

    Meanwhile, AMP Ltd (ASX: AMP) shares have caught a bid this year and have held gains of 17.5%, despite trending lower since June.

    The firm remains optimistic about the continued rally in share markets in FY25.

    According to Dr Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Investments, the past financial year saw robust returns for investors.

    These were driven by falling inflation, central banks cutting rates, and better-than-expected economic conditions.

    “There has been a wall of worry for investors over the last year, but as is often the case, share markets climbed it,” Oliver noted.

    Here’s the outlook for ASX shares in FY25 according to the AMP economist.

    AMP sees continued market optimism

    AMP identifies several key themes influencing the Aussie markets going forward. Firstly, inflation has been on a downward trend globally, which has supported global market rallies. Australian inflation meanwhile has lagged, but is expected to follow trend, Oliver says.

    Central bank policies are also playing a significant role. After slowing the pace of interest rate hikes, central banks worldwide – including in Europe and North America – have begun cutting rates, a trend that’s expected to continue and support market performance.

    AMP, therefore, expects more volatility in stocks but believes that markets will continue to rise amid improving economic data.

    As Dr Oliver explains:

    Central banks in Switzerland, Sweden, Canada and the Eurozone have now started to cut with the US and UK expected to start around September…

    …Our base case is that share markets can continue to rally as more central banks join in cutting rates as inflation continues to fall towards central bank targets, including the Fed from around September and the RBA from around February enabling bond yields to fall and investors to focus on stronger growth in 2025. 

    Also noting:

    Our base case is for more constrained returns in the current financial year of 6-7% down from the 9% or so seen over the last year. However, the risk of another correction in shares is high and investors should allow for a more volatile ride than seen over the last year.

    Global economic growth is also seen to be resilient, particularly in the US. This is despite regions like Europe and Japan “flirting with recession”. Additionally, AI developments have boosted tech stocks, particularly in the US, contributing to the market’s strength.

    We saw this very early in the year and then once again around the end of the first quarter when large tech and artificial intelligence (AI) shares – such as NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ: NVDA) – reported bumper earnings.

    Oliver says that despite these positive trends, geopolitical risks remain high. The war in Ukraine, tensions in the Middle East, and the upcoming elections in France and the US all pose potential threats.

    Forecast for balanced growth super funds

    AMP suggests balanced growth superannuation funds could also return around 6%-7% in the coming year. This is around 3 percentage points lower than the previous year.

    This more conservative outlook considers the potential for market corrections and increased volatility.

    Many investors hold shares like AMP in their super funds.

    With short-term volatility, one might be tempted to hit the “sell” button on their brokerage accounts. Or, change investment strategy in their super.

    But critically, Oliver – like all the investing greats: Buffet, Munger, Dalio, and so on – advises investors to maintain a long-term view and not be swayed by short-term market movements.

    “The key is to adopt a long-term strategy and turn down the noise”, Dr Oliver said.

    “Short term forecasting and market timing is fraught with difficulty and it’s best to stick to sound long term investment principles.”

    The post Why AMP says share markets ‘can continue to rally’ in FY25 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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  • What are the average returns for balanced superannuation funds?

    Almost all of us have a superannuation fund. After all, in Australia almost all workers must have 11.5% of their paycheques diverted into a super account, quarantined for our retirements.

    Most Australians who don’t have a self-managed super fund (SMSF) will probably find that their super is going into something known as a ‘balanced’ fund.

    Super providers offer a range of different investment options for our super, graded by the risk and reward spectrum. You can opt to have your cash invested in purely growth assets like ASX shares, or else conservative options like cash and government bonds.

    Most super providers offer a happy medium though – the balanced fund. This option aims to balance the aim of achieving the best returns on investment possible with the desire of most Australians to limit volatility within their super funds.

    As such, your typical balanced fund will invest your money in a range of assets, including aggressive and conservative investments. This means a balanced fund will normally have a mix of ASX shares, international shares, bonds, and cash, amongst other assets within its portfolio.

    But how much does your typical balanced super fund return to you each year? That’s what we’ll be diving into today.

    Thanks to some analysis by superannuation research firm Chant West, we have a pretty good idea.

    What is the average return of a ‘balanced’ superannuation fund?

    According to Chant West, the average Australian balanced fund (41%-60% of growth assets) returned 9.4% over the 12 months to 31 May 2024.

    The average return over the three years to 31 May was 5.3% per annum. That grew to 6.7% per annum over five years and 7.2% over ten.

    The numbers do show though, that choosing a balanced fund and chasing a less volatile portfolio does have a cost. The same data shows that an ‘all-growth’ fund delivered a 13.7% return over the 12 months to 31 May. This fund type also delivered an average of 6.9% per annum over three years, 8.8% over five, and 8.7% over ten.

    That extra point or two can make a big difference over a working lifetime.

    In contrast, your typical conservative super fund returned just 5% over the year to 31 May and averaged 4.3% per annum over the prior ten years.

    Deciding on the type of super fund to go with should be a decision you and your financial advisor make, taking into account your individual circumstances. For example, if you are only a few years away from retirement, it is generally wise to take a conservative approach.

    But even so, this data makes for some interesting reading.

    The post What are the average returns for balanced superannuation funds? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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    Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.