Category: Stock Market

  • Resmed share price higher despite CEO hitting sell on 14,683 shares

    a doctor in a white coat makes a heart shape with his hands and holds it over his chest where his heart is placed.

    It’s been a pleasant Friday for the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) and most ASX 200 shares today. At the close of trading, the ASX 200 had gained 0.35% and was back above 7,740 points. But let’s talk about what went on with the ResMed Inc (ASX: RMD) share price.

    Resmed shares performed slightly better than the broader market. The ASX 200 healthcare stock closed 0.43% higher at $32.34 after rising even higher this morning to $32.71 a share, a gain worth just over 1.5% at the time.

    This green day for Resmed came despite some potentially difficult news for investors to digest.

    According to a United States Securities and Investments Commission (SEC) filing, ResMed CEO Michael J. Farrell has just sold a significant chunk of shares.

    Remember, Resmed is a dual-listed share and has a home both on the ASX and the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker ResMed Inc (NYSE: RMD). The company’s base is also in America, in the Californian city of San Diego.

    This SEC filing shows that Farrell disposed of 14,683 Resmed shares on 7 May (US time) this week.

    These sales were executed at an average share price of US$216.50. That means Farrell would have bagged a cool US$3,178,815, which is approximately $4.81 million in our local currency.

    There was no explanation given for these Resmed share sales. However, the plot thickens when we examine another two transactions reported on the same day.

    Why has the ResMed CEO been selling shares?

    The filing also shows that Farrell acquired 14,683 shares on 7 May. So Farrell has apparently bought and then sold $4.81 million worth of Resmed shares on the same day.

    Well, not quite. The acquisition price of these shares was listed as US$84.98 – a far cry from the US$216.50 selling price. This implies that these shares were converted from options that the CEO possessed.

    It appears that Farrell’s options were exercised and converted into ordinary Resmed shares, which were promptly sold.

    Should investors be worried?

    Well, that’s up to them. All investors like to see their company’s management teams align themselves financially with investors as much as possible. That means owning as many shares as they can. When CEOs and other senior management figures sell out of said shares, it can cause some understandable consternation.

    However, it must also be remembered that most managers tend to try to follow the rules of good wealth management, which most would agree includes at least somewhat diversifying one’s wealth. Unless you’re Warren Buffett, having most of your net worth tied up in one stock investment is rarely a good idea.

    This might be a case of Farrell doing just that when it comes to Resmed shares. Perhaps the CEO has a large tax bill coming up or wants to buy a new house.

    Before investors follow Farrell and sell out of their shares (which doesn’t appear to be happening anyway, judging by the recent share price performance), keep in mind that Farrell still owns a significant chunk of the company.

    The SEC filing shows that the CEO retains 440,752 Resmed shares (presumably the NYSE-listed stock) even after this week’s sale. Those would have a value of US$95.57 million today.

    The post Resmed share price higher despite CEO hitting sell on 14,683 shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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    Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended ResMed. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended ResMed. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

  • Brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy now

    Business woman watching stocks and trends while thinking

    It has been another busy week for Australia’s top brokers. This has led to the release of a number of broker notes.

    Three broker buy ratings that you might want to know more about are summarised below. Here’s why brokers think these ASX shares are in the buy zone:

    Neuren Pharmaceuticals Ltd (ASX: NEU)

    According to a note out of Bell Potter, its analysts have retained their buy rating on this pharmaceutical company’s shares with a slightly trimmed price target of $26.50. This follows the release of an update on Daybue sales in the United States. While those sales were just short of guidance, this was driven by pre-flagged seasonality impacts. The good news is that FY 2024 guidance remains unchanged. In light of this, Bell Potter is expecting another standout year for Neuren. In addition, the broker is eagerly awaiting phase 2 clinical readouts from the company’s second drug candidate, NNZ-2591. It notes that Pitt Hopkins Phase 2 results are due in the current quarter, followed by Angelman results in the third quarter. The Neuren share price is trading at $19.00 on Friday.

    REA Group Ltd (ASX: REA)

    A note out of Morgan Stanley reveals that its analysts have reaffirmed their overweight rating and $210.00 price target on this property listings company’s shares. This follows the release of a quarterly update which revealed very strong sales and earnings growth from the realestate.com.au operator. The broker notes that REA Group slightly outperformed analyst expectations. It also significantly outperformed its closest rival, which is cementing its market leadership position further. This bodes well for the future and supports the broker’s forecast for further solid growth in the near term. The REA share price is fetching $187.43 this afternoon.

    TechnologyOne Ltd (ASX: TNE)

    Analysts at Goldman Sachs have retained their buy rating on this enterprise technology company’s shares with an improved price target of $18.10. The broker has been looking ahead to TechnologyOne’s half year results release later this month. It is expecting the company to report annual recurring revenue growth of 35%, which will be a touch ahead of consensus estimates. All in all, the broker believes the company is performing above expectations for ARR and earnings growth and that this is not being fully reflected in its valuation. As a result, Goldman believes that now would be a good time for investors to snap up its shares. The TechnologyOne share price is trading at $16.36 on Friday afternoon.

    The post Brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy now appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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    Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Technology One. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goldman Sachs Group, REA Group, and Technology One. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended REA Group and Technology One. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

  • Should you buy ANZ shares before they trade ex-dividend next week?

    A woman looks questioning as she puts a coin into a piggy bank.

    It’s been a promising start to the month of May for the ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) share price. This ASX 200 bank stock began this month at $28.16 a share. But today, those same shares are trading for $29.20 each. That’s up a healthy 1.41% today alone and means that ANZ shares have enjoyed a 3.6% rise since the end of April.

    It appears investors have given their tick of approval to the half-year earnings report that ANZ delivered earlier this week.

    As we covered at the time, these earnings revealed that ANZ suffered a 4% drop in statutory profits after tax to $3.41 billion for the six months to 31 March.

    Cash profits also fell by 1%, down to $3.55 billion. However, the capital returns that ANZ announced seemed to give investors their biggest confidence boost.

    ANZ revealed that its shareholders would enjoy the benefits of an additional $2 billion share buyback program going forward. The bank also declared an interim dividend of 83 cents per share, which was up 2.5% over last year’s interim dividend of 81 cents per share. This fresh dividend will only come partially franked at 65%.

    ANZ wasn’t messing around, though. The ex-dividend cutoff date for this upcoming payout was set for less than one week later, on 13 May, to be precise. That’s next Monday.

    Should you buy ANZ shares before next week’s ex-dividend cutoff?

    This means that anyone who doesn’t already own ANZ shares but wants to enjoy this latest dividend has until the close of trading today to buy ANZ shares. Anyone who buys them from Monday onwards (or sells out before today’s closing bell) will miss out this time.

    Eligible investors will then get the cash from this dividend (or the additional shares if the optional dividend reinvestment plan is utilised) on 1 July.

    So those are the rules. But should investors buy ANZ before this dividend disappears forever?

    Just to get this straight, there are no free lunches in the investing world. If you buy ANZ shares today as opposed to next Monday, you won’t get this dividend ‘for free’. Whenever a share goes ex-dividend, you can expect to see its shares fall by roughly the same value as what said dividend was worth.

    This latest ANZ dividend is worth 83 cents per share. This effectively means that when ANZ opens on Monday, its share price will be approximately 83 cents lower than where it would have been without the ex-dividend factor.

    So you can either buy ANZ shares at a higher price today and bag this dividend, or you can wait until they are cheaper on Monday, but don’t come with the rights to the dividend attached. It’s fairly close to a zero-sum game, and if any investors try to chase the arbitrage between the two, they will probably come out disappointed.

    No free ASX lunches, even for bank stocks

    For a long-term investor, it won’t make too much difference if you buy today or Monday. Your overall returns probably won’t differ by much at all.

    So if you were already keen on buying ANZ shares for dividend income, you might want to seize your chance this Friday. But if you are just building out a position in ANZ as a long-term investment, don’t let this tricky situation throw you off your game.

    At the current ANZ share price, this ASX 200 bank stock sports a dividend yield of 6.08%.

    The post Should you buy ANZ shares before they trade ex-dividend next week? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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    Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

  • Why Comet Ridge, Kingsgate, News Corp, and St Barbara shares are rising today

    A young woman wearing overalls and a yellow t-shirt kicks one leg in the air showing excitement over the latest ASX 200 shares to hit 52-week highs

    In afternoon trade, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has returned to form on Friday. In afternoon trade, the benchmark index is up 0.45% to 7,757.1 points.

    Four ASX shares that are rising more than most today are listed below. Here’s why they are climbing:

    Comet Ridge Ltd (ASX: COI)

    The Comet Ridge share price is up over 5% to 20 cents. This morning, this energy explorer revealed that it has been awarded a $5 million grant from the Queensland Government to undertake a pilot test in Comet Ridge’s 100% held Mahalo East block. The company’s managing director, Tor McCaul, said: “Comet Ridge is very pleased to be the recipient of a Frontier Gas Exploration Grant, a further endorsement of the significant position that Comet Ridge has established in the Mahalo Gas Hub area within the Bowen Basin.”

    Kingsgate Consolidated Limited (ASX: KCN)

    The Kingsgate Consolidated share price is up 10% to $1.74. This has been driven by the release of an update on the company’s Chatree gold mine in Thailand. That update reveals that Plant 1 at the gold mine has now been permitted to operate. This follows a successful inspection by the Department of Primary Industries and Mines. As a result, full commissioning of Plant 1 will commence immediately, followed by a ramp up to full operations.

    News Corporation (ASX: NWS)

    The News Corporation share price is up almost 4% to $38.72. This morning, analysts at Goldman Sachs responded positively to the media giant’s quarterly update. The broker said: “Earnings were largely in-line with our prior expectations (EBITDA +1% vs. GSe), with strength in Digital Real Estate, books and News Media offsetting a softer Dow Jones & Other.” In light of this, the broker has reiterated its buy rating with a $44.70 price target. This implies potential upside of over 15% for investors from current levels.

    St Barbara Ltd (ASX: SBM)

    The St Barbara share price is up 12.5% to 27 cents. Investors have been buying this gold miner’s shares following the release of an update on its Simberi operation. St Barbara advised that its concept study supports 10+ years of production at Simberi. It estimates average annual gold production rising from 70,000 ounces to 75,000 ounces by FY 2027 and then to 230,000 ounces through to FY 2034. This will lead to total gold production of 2 million ounces. CEO Andrew Strelein said “We now have a road map we can pursue that can take us to increased, more profitable production at Simberi into the mid-2030s.”

    The post Why Comet Ridge, Kingsgate, News Corp, and St Barbara shares are rising today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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    Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

  • How this ASX mining stock more than doubled investors’ money in 1 month

    A young boy sits on his father's shoulders as they flex their muscles at sunrise on a beach

    ASX mining stock Base Resources Ltd (ASX: BSE) has made shareholders very happy over the past month.

    How happy?

    Well, one month ago, you could have bought shares in the Australian-owned African mineral sands producer for 12 cents apiece.

    Today, those same shares are trading for 26 cents, up 117%.

    Investors who bought the ASX mining stock three weeks ago on 19 April, when Base Resources shares were trading for 11 cents, will be sitting even prettier. The stock is up 134% since then.

    Here’s what’s been piquing investor interest.

    What’s been sending the ASX mining stock through the roof?

    The vast majority of the Base Resources share price gains were delivered on a single day.

    On Monday, 22 April, the ASX mining stock closed the day up an eye-watering 123.8%.

    Investors were snapping up shares after Base Resources reported it had entered into a binding scheme implementation deed with United States-based uranium and critical minerals producer Energy Fuels Inc. (TSE: EFR).

    The deal would see Energy Fuels acquire all of Base Resources’ shares for an offer price of 30.2 cents per share, some 16% above current levels and a whopping 188% higher than the share price the day before the takeover offer announcement.

    Absent a superior proposal, the ASX mining stock’s board unanimously recommended shareholders vote in favour of the acquisition.

    Commenting on the potential benefits for its Toliara Project, Base Resources managing director Tim Carstens said:

    The combined group will have the financial and technical capability to not only build Toliara into one of the best critical mineral projects in the world, but also to develop an integrated value chain for the rare earth elements that are essential to the global energy transition.

    Carstens noted that the proposed transaction was “the culmination of 12 months of discussions between Base Resources and Energy Fuels”.

    Base Resources quarterly update

    The ASX mining stock gained another 2% on 30 April following the release of its quarterly update for the three months to 31 March.

    Base Resources said the challenging market conditions over the past few quarters stabilised over the previous three months as demand improved and “some downstream re-stocking supported flat pricing across all products”.

    Turning to the balance sheet, the company held cash of US$83 million and no debt at the end of the quarter.

    As for the transaction with Energy Fuels, the ASX mining stock said its independent expert, PwC, has commenced work, as has the independent technical specialist, AMC Consultants.

    The post How this ASX mining stock more than doubled investors’ money in 1 month appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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    Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

  • Why Cettire, De Grey Mining, Life360, and Neuren shares are falling today

    The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has returned to form on Friday. In afternoon trade, the benchmark index is up 0.5% to 7,759.5 points.

    Four ASX shares that have failed to follow the market higher today are listed below. Here’s why they are falling:

    Cettire Ltd (ASX: CTT)

    The Cettire share price is down 2% to $3.12. This is despite there being no news out the online luxury retailer. However, this decline could have been driven by concerns over consumer spending following a series of subdued updates from retailers this week. The team at Bell Potter is likely to see this as a buying opportunity. Earlier this week, the broker retained its buy rating and $4.00 price target on the company’s shares.

    De Grey Mining Limited (ASX: DEG)

    The De Grey Mining share price is down 2% to $1.24. Investors have been selling this gold developer’s shares following the completion of an institutional entitlement offer and placement. De Grey Mining has raised approximately $514.3 million at a discount of $1.10 per new share. Proceeds from the equity raising, together with existing cash, are expected to fully fund the equity component of the project financing for the Hemi Gold Project in Western Australia. Managing Director, Glenn Jardine, believes the support from existing and new shareholders “reflects the high quality of the Hemi Gold Project at a global level.”

    Life360 Inc (ASX: 360)

    The Life360 share price is down 3% to $15.00. This follows the release of the location technology company’s first quarter update. Although Life360 delivered very strong growth across the board, the market appears to have been expecting management to lift its guidance for the full year. However, this has only been reiterated despite its impressive start to the financial year. It continues to expect to report consolidated revenue of US$365 million to US$375 million and adjusted EBITDA of US$30 million to US$35 million. The Life360 share price was down as much as 9% at one stage on Friday before rebounding strongly off its lows.

    Neuren Pharmaceuticals Ltd (ASX: NEU)

    The Neuren Pharmaceuticals share price is down almost 2% to $18.98. Investors have been selling this pharmaceuticals company’s shares since the release of its quarterly sales update on Thursday. That update revealed that its partner, Acadia Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: ACAD) achieved net sales of Daybue in the United States of US$75.9 million. This was a touch short of its guidance of US$76 million to US$82 million. Nevertheless, Acadia reiterated its FY 2024 guidance for net sales of between US$370 million and US$420 million.

    The post Why Cettire, De Grey Mining, Life360, and Neuren shares are falling today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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    Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Life360. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Life360. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Cettire. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

  • Buying BHP shares for the Anglo takeover? Here’s why it might be a ‘crazy’ move

    A young man in a blue suit sits on his desk cross-legged with his phone in his hand looking slightly crazed.

    BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares have been getting even more attention than usual in recent weeks.

    As the largest company listed in Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) mining giant is already a frequent headline leader.

    But investor and media interest in BHP shares ramped up to the next level on 26 April. That’s when the miner announced it had made a non-binding offer to acquire Anglo American (LSE: AAL).

    The all scrip offer amounted to 31.1 billion British pounds, or roughly AU$60 billion.

    As you’re likely aware, BHP is eyeing Anglo American with an eye on its copper assets.

    Copper represents 30% of Anglo American’s total production. Should BHP’s takeover succeed, the ASX 200 miner would become the world’s top copper producer, producing around 10% of global output.

    Amid growing demand and limited new supplies, the copper price has surged 16% year to date to US$9,905. And most analysts expect copper prices to continue trending higher from here.

    It’s a markedly different story for iron ore, the top revenue earner for BHP shares. The iron ore price is down 16% in 2024 at US$116 per tonne, with many analysts forecasting it will trend lower from here.

    Take two?

    Now, as you’re also likely aware, Anglo American’s board rejected BHP’s offer on 29 April.

    Anglo American chair, Stuart Chambers said the offer significantly undervalued the company and its future growth prospects.

    Rumour has it that BHP is likely to come back with an improved offer. The company has until 22 May to place a formal offer under UK acquisition regulations.

    But if you’re buying BHP shares for the takeover potential, Aitken Mount Capital Partners stockbroker Angus Aitken cautioned the result could be a “complete mess”.

    Why BHP shares could get walloped by the Anglo American takeover

    According to Aitken (courtesy of The Australian Financial Review), BHP is primarily interested in Anglo American’s copper and coal assets. Meaning that it could look at selling numerous other projects, including the Barro Alto nickel mine in Brazil.

    And that could throw up some longer-term headwinds for BHP shares.

    According to Aitken:

    In our view, this deal really does have the potential to be a complete mess for BHP long-term. This is like BHP is trying to buy a six-bedroom house, just to get the garage. There are multiple large risks in BHP long-term in trying to sell off the assets they don’t want.

    He added that this strategy “seems crazy to us”.

    And the takeover proposal is far from simple.

    “If you are a BHP shareholder and think this is a simple transaction, you have rocks in your head,” he said.

    Aitken continued:

    BHP are the single worst sellers of assets in the world with Rio Tinto a close second, and yet a lot of this potential deal involves BHP on-selling assets for good prices, and we are cautious on that. How are you going to get a full price for the assets they want to divest when everyone knows you are a non-natural owner of them?”

    Certainly, not everyone agrees with Aitken’s bearish take on the proposed acquisition.

    Both Argo Investments and Wilson Asset Management believe the takeover can add value to BHP shares over time.

    The post Buying BHP shares for the Anglo takeover? Here’s why it might be a ‘crazy’ move appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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    Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

  • It was huge week for ASX 200 bank shares. Here’s why

    a group of four people wearing corporate uniforms stand in a line caring stacked boxes with unhappy looks on their faces.

    It was a huge week for investors in S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) bank shares.

    Three of the big four banks reported quarterly or half-year results over the week. And one traded ex-dividend.

    Here’s what happened.

    Three ASX 200 bank shares reporting results

    Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) released its half-year earnings results on Monday.

    For the six months through 31 March, the ASX 200 bank share reported a 4% year-on-year decline in net operating income to $10.59 billion. And ongoing competition saw net interest margins (NIMs) come down 0.07% to 1.89%.

    With operating expenses up 8%, Westpac’s net profit before one-offs was down 8% to $3.51 billion.

    But management pleased passive income investors by declaring a fully franked dividend of 90 cents per share.

    Westpac also announced an additional $1 billion on-market share buyback. Westpac shares closed up 2.7% on Monday.

    On Tuesday, it was Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd (ASX: ANZ) that reported half-year results.

    As with Westpac, ANZ’s NIM declined, though by a lesser 0.02%.

    The ASX 200 bank share’s statutory profit after tax declined by 4% from the prior half to $3.41 billion, with cash profits dipping 1% to 3.55 billion.

    Management declared an interim dividend of 83 cents per share, franked at 65%. That’s up from last year’s interim dividend of 81 cents per share.

    And not to be outdone by Westpac, ANZ also announced a $2 billion on-market share buyback.

    ANZ shares closed up 0.1% on the day.

    Two days later, on Thursday, Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) reported its third-quarter update.

    Compared to the prior corresponding quarter, the ASX 200 bank share saw operating income slip by 1%, while operating expenses increased by 2%.

    As you’d expect, that led to lower profits for the three months, with unaudited statutory net profit after tax declining 5% year on year to $2.4 billion.

    CBA remains well-capitalised with a Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio of 11.9%. That’s a significant safety margin over the minimum 10.25% ratio required by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA).

    And one trading ex-dividend

    National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) reported its half-year results on 2 May, a week earlier.

    As with the other ASX 200 bank shares, NAB’s net operating income slipped year on year, down 0.9% to $10.14 billion. The big four bank’s cash earnings declined by 12.8% to $3.55 billion.

    That didn’t hold management back from declaring a fully franked dividend of 84 cents per share, up from 83 cents per share last year.

    NAB shares traded ex-dividend on Tuesday.

    As investors buying the ASX 200 bank share on Tuesday were no longer eligible for the upcoming dividend payment, the NAB share price closed the day down 1.5%.

    The post It was huge week for ASX 200 bank shares. Here’s why appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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    Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

  • Buy this ASX 200 tech stock now before it’s too late: Goldman Sachs

    A young man pointing up looking amazed, indicating a surging share price movement for an ASX company

    Investors that are the lookout for technology exposure might want to consider TechnologyOne Ltd (ASX: TNE).

    That’s the view of analysts at Goldman Sachs, which see the ASX 200 tech stock as a great option right now.

    What is the broker saying about this ASX 200 tech stock?

    Ahead of the release of the enterprise software provider’s half year result later this month, Goldman is predicting sales growth ahead of consensus estimates. It said:

    We estimate TNE will report (1) SaaS ARR [annual recurring revenue] of A$425mn or +35% y/y vs +34% Visible Alpha Consensus Data; (2) Total revenue of A$241mn or +19% y/y vs A$231mn consensus; (3) Profit before tax of A$62mn or +18% y/y vs +19% consensus. We expect TNE to provide its typical +10-15% full-year PBT growth guidance, although based on recent strong ARR growth in combination with a small amount of margin leverage we expect TNE can comfortably exceed the top-end in November (GSe +16%).

    Overall, the broker believes the ASX 200 stock is operating ahead of guidance and feels this isn’t being reflected in its share price. It adds:

    In our view TNE’s above-trend ARR and earnings growth outlook, improved earnings visibility and upside levers to management targets (e.g. SaaS+, UK) are not being fully reflected in valuation. Execution on sustainable +115% NRR could help to close TNE’s recent underperformance vs tech peers given 1H24 is the first result without a material sequential cloud flip tailwind (ie. substantially all growth will be underlying).

    Decent upside predicted

    Today’s note reveals that Goldman has reiterated its buy rating with a slightly improved price target of $18.10.

    Based on its current share price of $16.24, this implies potential upside of 11.5% for investors over the next 12 months. The broker also expects a modest 1.4% dividend yield to sweeten the deal further.

    But it may not stop there. In its bull case, Goldman sees scope for the ASX 200 tech stock to rise to $27.40, which is almost 70% higher than current levels. It explains:

    We highlight our recent TNE bull case analysis of A$27.4 which factors in low-to-mid teens top line growth in ANZ (still assumes the 115% NRR target is not met), as well as a 30% revenue CAGR in the UK, where we ascribe A$21.3 to the ANZ business and A$6.1 for the UK. On this basis, market pricing (A$16.3) could be (1) implying that ANZ NRR decelerates materially below <115% in coming years and that TNE has little success in new product cross-sell; and (2) placing little value on UK, despite recent local government and higher ed customer wins.

    The post Buy this ASX 200 tech stock now before it’s too late: Goldman Sachs appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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    Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Technology One. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goldman Sachs Group and Technology One. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Technology One. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

  • The QBE share price is marching higher on Friday. Here’s why

    Modern accountant woman in a light business suit in modern green office with documents and laptop.

    The QBE Insurance Group Ltd (ASX: QBE) share price is marching higher today.

    Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) insurance company closed yesterday trading for $17.59. At the time of writing in the early morning trade on Friday, shares are changing hands for $17.78 apiece, up 1.1%.

    For some context, the ASX 200 is 0.3% at this same time.

    This comes following the release of QBE’s performance update for the first quarter of 2024 (Q1 2024).

    Here are the highlights.

    What did the ASX 200 insurer report?

    The QBE share price is marching higher after the company announced a 2% year on year increase in gross written premium for the three months in both a reported and constant currency terms.

    Renewal rate increases of 7.3% were in line with the company’s expectations. Management said this “reflected reduced rate increases across certain property and reinsurance lines compared to the prior corresponding period”.

    Excluding rate increases, premiums fell 2% in constant currency terms. This was due to lower Crop premium along with property portfolio exits in its North America and Australia operations.

    The ASX 200 insurer said it expects organic growth to partially offset the impact of lower commodity prices in its Crop segment. QBE forecasts Crop gross written premium will be around $3.9 billion in FY 2024.

    On the claims front, the company had a net cost of catastrophe claims of approximately $300 million in the four months to April. QBE’s catastrophe allowance for 1H 2024 is $609 million.

    Management noted that catastrophe costs were driven by a number of storm events, mostly in Australia and North America.

    The QBE share price could also be getting some support with the ASX 200 insurer reporting that supportive interest rates and favourable returns in its risk asset portfolio delivered strong investment returns in Q1.

    QBE’s first quarter exit core fixed income running yield of 4.7% ticked up from the 4.6% FY 2023 exit running yield.

    Total investment funds under management (FUM) of $30.3 billion was up $200 million from FY 2023. Management said risk assets now accounted for some 15% of the portfolio.

    The company also noted that higher risk-free rates resulted in a $130 million unrealised loss on its core fixed income securities. Although this was broadly offset by the company’s claims liability discount benefit. The final result was a neutral impact from QBE’s asset-liability management activities for the quarter.

    As for what’s ahead for QBE shares, management reaffirmed full-year guidance of constant currency gross written premium growth in the mid-single digits. Premium rate increases are expected to remain supportive.

    QBE’s FY 2024 group combined operating ratio is forecast to be approximately 93.5%.

    The company is scheduled to release its first half results on 9 August.

    QBE share price snapshot

    The QBE share price has been a strong performer in 2024, up about 22% year to date.

    The post The QBE share price is marching higher on Friday. Here’s why appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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    Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.