Category: Stock Market

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) rose 0.9% last week in a positive start to the new financial year. 

In FY26, ASX 200 shares put in a respectable performance, lifting 2.8% and delivering total returns of 7%.   

Here, we look at three ASX 200 shares that the experts have a bullish view on for FY27.  

Zip Co Ltd (ASX: ZIP)

The Zip share price rose 5.5% to close out FY26 at $3.24 on 30 June.  

Jonathon Higgins from United Capital Partners (UCPS) has a buy rating on this ASX 200 buy now, pay later share for FY27.

Higgins considers Zip’s turnaround over the past few years as one of the best he’s ever witnessed. 

In a new note, Higgins points out that Zip is on track to report annual cash earnings of more than $260 million just three years after a $50 million cash earnings loss. 

Back then, Zip abandoned its plans for global expansion to instead focus on its core markets of Australia and the US.

Today, Higgins reckons the market is underappreciating Zip’s cost discipline and its prospects for further growth in the US. 

Compared to US-listed BNPL peers, Higgins says Zip shares are the cheapest and could be in for a re-rate in FY27.

UCPS has a buy rating on Zip with a target share price of $4.85. This implies a potential 50% upside over the next 12 months. 

Higgins commented: 

Sustainable earnings momentum against structural growth is hard to find on the ASX currently. 

Resmed CDI (ASX: RMD)

The Resmed share price fell 26.6% to $28.88 on 30 June amid a broader healthcare sector downturn in FY26. 

Blake Halligan from Catapult Wealth has a buy rating on this ASX 200 healthcare share. 

Halligan explained (courtesy The Bull): 

ResMed is a global leader in sleep apnoea devices and digital health platforms, benefiting from strong structural demand and resilient clinical positioning.

Despite the progression in GLP-1 therapies for treating sleep apnoea, ResMed’s CPAP (continuous positive airway pressure) treatments remain superior at this point in time.

RMD continues to offer appealing growth, income and defensive healthcare exposure.

QBE Insurance Group Ltd (ASX: QBE) 

The QBE share price lifted 7.7% in FY26 to close the year at $25.19. 

In an article, fund manager Market Partners described QBE as one of the most compelling artificial intelligence (AI) cost-reduction stories on the ASX.  

The QBE share price has been on a tear since the insurer reported a 21% increase in net profit after tax (NPAT) for FY25 in February.

QBE shares hit a multi-year high of $25.32 on the first day of the new financial year. 

Gerrish explained their bullish view on the ASX 200 financial share in a recent webinar: 

They’ve been working hard over the last five, 10 years around simplification of their business.

So they went out there, they made a huge number of acquisitions… and it’s starting to pay benefits.

The experts said QBE was an emerging turnaround story, with the share price now trading at 15-year highs.

Gerrish added:

Turnarounds can take a lot longer than anyone envisages.

But once a turnaround is starting to gain traction like it is in QBE, then the stock can run a lot further and a lot longer than anyone thinks.

So, on 12x [P/E], growing earnings at high single digits, yielding 4.7% part-franked [dividends] with earnings tailwinds, we think QBE stacks up.

 

The post 3 ASX 200 shares to buy now: experts appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Why BHP and these ASX shares could be strong buys this week
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday
• ASX healthcare shares have jumped 21% since June. Can the recovery continue?
• Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy next week
• Healthcare shares lead the ASX 200 again as sector rotation gathers pace

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has positions in Zip Co. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended ResMed. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended ResMed. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) shares rose 2.77% and produced total returns, including dividends, of 7% in FY26.   

Here, we take a look at how one expert currently views three of the giants of the index at the start of FY27 (courtesy The Bull). 

Are they a buy, hold, or sell? 

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP)

The BHP share price skyrocketed 62% to close out FY26 at $59.40. 

Blake Halligan from Catapult Wealth has a buy rating on this ASX 200 mining share. 

He said: 

The global miner holds dominant positions in iron ore and copper and is leveraged to increasing demand during the energy transition.

A review of the Jansen stage 2 potash project in Canada resulted in a cost blowout of about $US2 billion to $US6.9 billion.

Despite the Jansen impairment and the risk of industrial action at iron ore operations in the Pilbara region of Western Australia, near term earnings momentum remains strong.

Elevated copper prices and strong iron ore prices supported performance in full year 2026.

The balance sheet remains robust with low net debt, while a recent dividend yield above 3 per cent adds income appeal.

BHP offers cyclical upside and long term growth exposure to copper.

The copper price rose by 18% in FY26 and iron ore lifted 7%. 

Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS)

The Woodside share price increased 19% over FY26 to finish the financial year at $28.21.

Halligan has a hold rating on this ASX 200 energy share, and commented:

Woodside Energy is a major Australian LNG producer with a portfolio of global gas projects.

The company is increasing its stake in the Browse joint venture to 41.27 per cent via a $US225 million deal, reinforcing its strategy to extend the life of the North West Shelf.

This adds long term upside along with the Scarborough project, which is 94 per cent completed.

However, regulatory uncertainty, rising costs and policy risks in Australia temper the outlook.

While growth options are significant, execution and approvals risk support a balanced hold stance at current valuation levels.

Oil prices slumped to pre-war levels shortly after the US and Iran agreed to an interim peace deal last month.  

PLS Group Ltd (ASX: PLS)

PLS Group shares soared 275% to close out FY26 at $5.02. 

Halligan explained his sell rating on the ASX 200 lithium share: 

PLS Group is a leading Australian lithium producer focused on spodumene concentrate.

Over the past three months, sentiment has been driven by a sharp rebound in spot spodumene prices and improving earnings expectations.

Stronger spodumene prices are triggering global supply re-starts and expansions.

The company’s valuation already reflects elevated prices amid supply growth potentially adding pressure on margins.

Lithium spodumene was at the top of the list of best-performing commodities of FY26 by a long way.

The lithium spodumene price rose about 280%, and carbonate soared 160%. 

 

 

The post Buy, hold, sell: BHP, Woodside, PLS Group shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Buy, hold, sell: Pro Medicus, BHP, Woolworths shares
• Why BHP and these ASX shares could be strong buys this week
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday
• Should you buy BHP shares in FY27? This is what experts think
• Why did ASX 200 lithium stocks like PLS, Liontown and Mineral Resources shares get smashed in June?

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has positions in BHP Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The Dexus (ASX: DXS) share price is in focus today after fresh portfolio valuations showed a slight 0.2% book value decrease to 30 June 2026, with office down 0.4% but industrial assets up 0.5%.

What did Dexus report?

• External independent valuations of 175 assets as at 30 June 2026
• Estimated total portfolio value decreased by $24 million, or 0.2%, in the six months to 30 June 2026
• Office portfolio value decreased by 0.4% due to higher capitalisation and discount rates
• Industrial portfolio value increased by 0.5%, mainly from rental growth and a firmer discount rate
• Weighted average capitalisation rate: 6.22% for office, 5.58% for industrial, and 6.06% total

What else do investors need to know?

Dexus noted that market rental growth contributed positively to valuations, especially in the industrial sector, which offset some pressure from increasing capitalisation rates in the office portfolio. Marginally softer capitalisation rates affected both asset classes, but fundamentals are helping to steady results. Valuation specifics and any further commentary on individual assets will be provided with Dexus’s FY26 results on 20 August 2026. These updated values do not include Dexus’s retail assets, and figures are subject to change on finalisation.

What did Dexus management say?

Dexus Group CEO and Managing Director Ross Du Vernet said:

The valuations reflect a stabilising market that is being driven by fundamentals. Capitalisation rates were slightly softer in both the office and industrial portfolios, with rental growth and capex assumptions generally driving valuation outcomes across the stabilised portfolios.

What’s next for Dexus?

Dexus’s formal FY26 results will land on 20 August 2026; this will contain further detail on each property’s valuation and outlook for the business. The company remains focused on its real estate development pipeline and leveraging its diverse asset base to unlock further value and deliver long-term growth for investors. As market conditions continue to evolve, Dexus’s integrated platform and experienced management team are positioning it to navigate trends in office and industrial property, with an eye on sustainability and future opportunities.

Dexus share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Dexus shares have declined 22%, trailing the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO), which has risen 3% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post Dexus’ portfolio valuations show office fall, industrial gain appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Genesis Minerals proposes Vault merger to create gold powerhouse
• Capricorn Metals hits upper end of FY26 gold production guidance, advances project expansions
• Regis Resources hits top end of FY26 guidance
• Infratil shares on watch after CDC Data Centres’ valuation climbs
• Greatland Resources posts record FY26 gold output

Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips. This article was prepared with the assistance of Large Language Model (LLM) tools for the initial summary of the company announcement. Any content assisted by AI is subject to our robust human-in-the-loop quality control framework, involving thorough review, substantial editing, and fact-checking by our experienced writers and editors holding appropriate credentials. The Motley Fool Australia stands behind the work of our editorial team and takes ultimate responsibility for the content published by The Motley Fool Australia.

The Genesis Minerals Ltd (ASX: GMD) share price is in focus today as the company confirmed it has delivered a binding proposal to merge with Vault Minerals Ltd (ASX: VAU). The proposed deal values Vault at A$5.6 billion and would create an Australian gold major with pro-forma annual production of 600–700,000 ounces and a market capitalisation of A$12.6 billion.

What did Genesis Minerals report?

• Genesis has made a binding proposal to acquire all Vault shares via a scheme of arrangement.
• The offer includes 0.7629 new Genesis shares plus A$0.475 in cash per Vault share, implying total consideration of A$5.274 per Vault share.
• Vault shareholders would own 40.2% of the enlarged Genesis Group; Genesis shareholders would own 59.8%.
• Estimated post-tax synergies of approximately A$2.0 billion, with A$1.5 billion unique to this transaction over 10 years.
• The combined group would have 33.6 million ounces in mineral resources and 9.4 million ounces in ore reserves.
• The pro-forma balance sheet shows A$611 million net cash and liquidity of A$1.3 billion.

What else do investors need to know?

Genesis’ proposal comes after Vault’s board unanimously deemed it a “Vault Superior Proposal” under its current scheme implementation deed with Regis Resources. However, Regis’ five-day right to match is in effect, limiting Vault’s ability to sign a binding agreement with Genesis until this period ends on 10 July 2026. The offer is not subject to due diligence or financing conditions. Genesis has secured revolving credit facilities to fund the A$500 million cash component, ensuring the enlarged group maintains a strong balance sheet post-merger. Board and management changes are planned if the scheme goes ahead, with representation from both companies and key executive roles remaining with Genesis’ current team, led by Managing Director Raleigh Finlayson.

What’s next for Genesis Minerals?

If Regis chooses not to match the proposal, Vault can move ahead to formalise the agreement with Genesis. The enlarged Genesis Group plans to consolidate operations in Western Australia’s Leonora-Laverton gold district, aiming for sector-leading scale, liquidity, and growth potential. Further value could be realised through operational synergies, optimising processing facilities, and enhanced supply chain efficiency. Investors should follow the outcome of Regis’ matching period and future updates as the proposed merger progresses.

Genesis Minerals share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Genesis Minerals shares have risen 51%, outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 3% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post Genesis Minerals proposes Vault merger to create gold powerhouse appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Capricorn Metals hits upper end of FY26 gold production guidance, advances project expansions
• Vault Minerals receives superior $5.6bn merger proposal from Genesis Minerals
• Regis Resources hits top end of FY26 guidance
• Infratil shares on watch after CDC Data Centres’ valuation climbs
• Greatland Resources posts record FY26 gold output

Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips. This article was prepared with the assistance of Large Language Model (LLM) tools for the initial summary of the company announcement. Any content assisted by AI is subject to our robust human-in-the-loop quality control framework, involving thorough review, substantial editing, and fact-checking by our experienced writers and editors holding appropriate credentials. The Motley Fool Australia stands behind the work of our editorial team and takes ultimate responsibility for the content published by The Motley Fool Australia.

The Capricorn Metals Ltd (ASX: CMM) share price is in focus after the company hit the upper end of its FY26 production guidance, with the Karlawinda Gold Project delivering 123,589 ounces of gold for the year and Q4 output of 30,437 ounces.

What did Capricorn Metals report?

• Q4 gold production: 30,437 ounces
• FY26 gold production: 123,589 ounces (top end of 115,000–125,000oz guidance)
• AISC expected within FY26 guidance range of $1,530–$1,630/oz
• Cash and gold on hand at 30 June 2026: $507.0 million
• Q4 cash build before capex and dividend: $68.2 million
• Maiden dividend payment in Q4: $22.8 million

What else do investors need to know?

Development at the Karlawinda Expansion Project (KEP) is shifting into commissioning, with major site construction largely complete. Capricorn has invested $44.8 million in KEP in Q4, covering key equipment and pre-production mining. The Mt Gibson Gold Project (MGGP) saw $1.2 million spent in early procurement and contract work, as Capricorn positions itself to move forward swiftly once all permits are received. Recent federal government approvals mean the MGGP is now advancing to the next stage of state environmental review. A maiden dividend was paid in Q4, highlighting the board’s confidence in operational cash flows and future growth.

What’s next for Capricorn Metals?

Commissioning at the Karlawinda Expansion Project is expected to ramp up this quarter, following the completion of key plant and infrastructure works. At the Mt Gibson Gold Project, focus is on finalising environmental approvals and progressing early-stage project development. Capricorn aims to build on its operational momentum, targeting steady production, careful cost management, and project pipeline advancement in the coming financial year.

Capricorn Metals share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Capricorn Metals shares have risen 51%, outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO), which has risen 3% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post Capricorn Metals hits upper end of FY26 gold production guidance, advances project expansions appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Genesis Minerals proposes Vault merger to create gold powerhouse
• Regis Resources hits top end of FY26 guidance
• Infratil shares on watch after CDC Data Centres’ valuation climbs
• Greatland Resources posts record FY26 gold output
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday

Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips. This article was prepared with the assistance of Large Language Model (LLM) tools for the initial summary of the company announcement. Any content assisted by AI is subject to our robust human-in-the-loop quality control framework, involving thorough review, substantial editing, and fact-checking by our experienced writers and editors holding appropriate credentials. The Motley Fool Australia stands behind the work of our editorial team and takes ultimate responsibility for the content published by The Motley Fool Australia.

S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) shares rose 2.77% and delivered total returns, including dividends, of 7% in FY26. 

On the The Bull this week, two experts give us their views on three ASX 200 shares as the new financial year gets underway.

Let’s check them out. 

Pro Medicus Ltd (ASX: PME)

The Pro Medicus share price fell 28.64% in FY26 amid a broader sector rout. 

However, that 12-month statistic hides the dramatic nature of the Pro Medicus share price rebound since February. 

Since its 52-week low of $107.75 on 24 February, Pro Medicus shares have skyrocketed 94%! 

Morgans has a buy rating on this ASX 200 healthcare share.

In a note issued last week, the broker said: 

PME has re-gained positive momentum (MoMo) off its multi-year lows. The move reflects a closing of the value gap flagged in our recent note (1 June), not any change to the underlying business.

With a >50% price move in June and heavy buying across the network in the mid to low $100s, taking some profits on new and overweight positions is hard to argue against, but absolutely view maintaining positions in PME as a core growth holding.

With the near-term upside/downside skew now less favourable, happy to lock in some outsized profits while maintaining a core growth holding.

Morgans increased its 12-month price target on Pro Medicus shares to $230. 

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP)

The BHP share price soared 62% to finish FY26 at $59.40. 

James Bills from Shaw and Partners has a hold rating on the market’s largest ASX 200 mining share. 

Bills said: 

BHP remains a cornerstone of the Australian sharemarket, underpinned by its scale, diversified commodity exposure and strong balance sheet.

While iron ore continues to drive earnings, BHP is increasingly leveraged to future-facing commodities, including copper, where demand is expected to increase significantly due to growth in data centres and electric vehicles.

Despite near term volatility in commodity prices and sensitivity to global growth, the company’s disciplined capital management and strong cash generation support shareholder returns.

Holding remains appropriate given its quality asset base and exposure to long term structural demand trends.

Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW)

The Woolworths share price rose 28.67% to $40.03 in FY26.

This made Woolworths shares the best performer within the consumer staples sector last year.

The defensive sector had a strong year in FY26 amid resurgent inflation and rising interest rates. 

The S&P/ASX 200 Consumer Staples Index (ASX: XSJ) rose 10.09% and delivered total returns of 13.72%. 

Bills has a sell rating on Woolworths shares. 

The analyst explains: 

Woolworths is facing increasing competitive pressure in the supermarket sector, along with possible margin compression driven by higher operating and supply chain costs.

While the share price has made a notable recovery since October 2025, the outlook is challenging given increasing cost of living pressures among price sensitive shoppers.

With a relatively modest dividend yield and limited short term catalysts, it may be prudent to reduce exposure and redeploy capital into opportunities with stronger growth prospects.

 

The post Buy, hold, sell: Pro Medicus, BHP, Woolworths shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Why BHP and these ASX shares could be strong buys this week
• Should you buy BHP shares in FY27? This is what experts think
• What are experts saying about these red hot ASX shares?
• Healthcare shares lead the ASX 200 again as sector rotation gathers pace
• 9 ASX 200 shares with renewed buy ratings for FY27

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has positions in BHP Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended Pro Medicus. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group and Pro Medicus. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The Vault Minerals Ltd (ASX: VAU) share price is in focus today after the company received a superior merger proposal from Genesis Minerals Ltd (ASX: GMD), valuing Vault at $5.6 billion and offering a 15.7% premium to its previous closing price.

What did Vault Minerals report?

• Received an unsolicited binding merger proposal from Genesis Minerals 
• Proposed consideration: 0.7629 Genesis shares plus $0.475 in cash for every Vault share
• Total implied Vault equity value: $5.6 billion, or $5.274 per share
• The offer represents a 15.7% premium to Vault’s last closing price
• Mix and match facility available for shareholders to elect cash or scrip, within set limits

What else do investors need to know?

The Vault board has unanimously determined that the Genesis proposal is a “Vault Superior Proposal” under its existing agreement with Regis Resources. As a result, Vault has notified Regis and triggered a five business day matching right period, expiring at 11:59pm (AWST) on 10 July 2026. During this time, Regis may choose to make a matching or superior proposal to Genesis’s offer.

The Genesis offer is not subject to finance or due diligence and is otherwise on similar terms to the proposed Regis merger, including conditions precedent and break fees. Vault shareholders are advised that no action is required from them at this stage while the matching right period is ongoing.

What’s next for Vault Minerals?

Vault will await any response from Regis Resources within the five business day period before making further announcements. The outcome of this process will determine whether Vault proceeds with the Genesis proposal or the existing Regis scheme.

The company has reiterated that until the matching right period concludes, it is unable to comment further on the Genesis proposal. Shareholders are encouraged to stay informed as updates become available.

Vault Minerals share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Vault Minerals shares have risen 82%, outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 3% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post Vault Minerals receives superior $5.6bn merger proposal from Genesis Minerals appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Genesis Minerals proposes Vault merger to create gold powerhouse
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• 3 ASX 200 stocks storming higher this week on big announcements
• Up 70% in a year, guess which $4.6 billion ASX 200 gold stock is leaping higher again today
• Genesis Minerals: FY26 guidance met and growth projects advance

Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips. This article was prepared with the assistance of Large Language Model (LLM) tools for the initial summary of the company announcement. Any content assisted by AI is subject to our robust human-in-the-loop quality control framework, involving thorough review, substantial editing, and fact-checking by our experienced writers and editors holding appropriate credentials. The Motley Fool Australia stands behind the work of our editorial team and takes ultimate responsibility for the content published by The Motley Fool Australia.

The Regis Resources Ltd (ASX: RRL) share price is in focus today after the company hit the top end of its annual production guidance, with FY26 group gold output reaching 379,000 ounces.

What did Regis Resources report?

• FY26 total group gold production: 379koz (top end of guidance, up 12% in Q4 to 101.5koz)
• $1.21 billion cash and bullion on hand at 30 June 2026, up $692 million over the year
• Dividend payments for the year: $151 million
• Tax payments for the year: $156 million
• Quarterly underlying cash and bullion generated: $284 million (before dividend and tax)

What else do investors need to know?

Regis Resources achieved its FY26 gold production target, with strong contributions from both its Duketon and Tropicana operations. Duketon produced 236,000 ounces, while Tropicana contributed 143,100 ounces, both meeting or exceeding their respective guidance ranges. The company expects to be within previous guidance for all key metrics including all-in sustaining costs (AISC), growth capital expenditure, and exploration spending. AISC is anticipated to land towards the higher end of its guidance range. Investors are set to receive more detailed financial results and operational details when Regis releases its full quarterly report and holds a conference call on 24 July 2026.

What’s next for Regis Resources?

Looking ahead, Regis will continue to focus on disciplined growth and maintaining strong balance sheet flexibility. The management reaffirmed its commitment to staying within all key guidance ranges as it looks to build on this year’s production success. With robust cash generation and operational stability, investors will be watching closely as Regis moves into FY27, including updates on cost management and any growth initiatives flagged in the July quarterly.

Regis Resources share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Regis Resources shares have risen 51%, outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which 

View Original Announcement

The post Regis Resources hits top end of FY26 guidance appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Genesis Minerals proposes Vault merger to create gold powerhouse
• Capricorn Metals hits upper end of FY26 gold production guidance, advances project expansions
• Infratil shares on watch after CDC Data Centres’ valuation climbs
• Greatland Resources posts record FY26 gold output
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday

Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips. This article was prepared with the assistance of Large Language Model (LLM) tools for the initial summary of the company announcement. Any content assisted by AI is subject to our robust human-in-the-loop quality control framework, involving thorough review, substantial editing, and fact-checking by our experienced writers and editors holding appropriate credentials. The Motley Fool Australia stands behind the work of our editorial team and takes ultimate responsibility for the content published by The Motley Fool Australia.

The Infratil Ltd (ASX: IFT) share price is on watch after the company revealed a 23.6% quarterly jump in the independent valuation of its CDC Data Centres interest, reaching a midpoint of A$18.5 billion. The uplift was fuelled by rapid growth in CDC’s contracted capacity to over 1GW and a bigger pipeline out to FY40.

What did Infratil report?

• CDC’s independent valuation rose by A$3.5 billion during the quarter to a midpoint of A$18.5 billion.
• Infratil’s 49.72% share in CDC is now valued at A$9,213 million, up from A$7,454 million in March 2026.
• Contracted capacity at CDC increased to over 1GW, including a new 555MW contract and further expansion in New Zealand.
• Leasable operating capacity lifted by 90MW to 550MW, with the pipeline to FY40 now 3.9GW, up from 2.6GW.
• Net debt at CDC increased to A$5,976 million, supporting its accelerated build program.

What else do investors need to know?

CDC’s build program is running faster to deliver the surge in contracted capacity expected by FY29, with under-construction leasable capacity doubling this quarter to 810MW. The future pipeline was extended to FY40, adding an extra 1.3GW of future build capacity, particularly targeting Australian markets to meet pressing customer demand. The independent valuation also factored in a 25 basis point increase in the risk-free rate, partly offsetting the positive cashflow momentum. CDC recently issued a A$1 billion hybrid capital bond and received a Moody’s Baa2 (Stable) credit rating, supporting funding diversification.

What’s next for Infratil?

Looking ahead, Infratil expects CDC’s growth momentum to continue, with ongoing investment in data centre capacity aimed at supporting new and existing contracts out to FY40. By rolling forward pipeline disclosures and redefining capacity metrics to focus on leasable, revenue-generating potential, Infratil is aiming to match evolving customer needs and capitalise on data centre sector demand. As CDC accelerates expansion across Australia and New Zealand, investors can anticipate regular updates as projects move from planning to operation. Interest rate and funding trends will remain key influences.

Infratil share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Infratil shares have risen 23%, outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO), which has risen 3% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post Infratil shares on watch after CDC Data Centres’ valuation climbs appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Genesis Minerals proposes Vault merger to create gold powerhouse
• Capricorn Metals hits upper end of FY26 gold production guidance, advances project expansions
• Regis Resources hits top end of FY26 guidance
• Greatland Resources posts record FY26 gold output
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday

Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips. This article was prepared with the assistance of Large Language Model (LLM) tools for the initial summary of the company announcement. Any content assisted by AI is subject to our robust human-in-the-loop quality control framework, involving thorough review, substantial editing, and fact-checking by our experienced writers and editors holding appropriate credentials. The Motley Fool Australia stands behind the work of our editorial team and takes ultimate responsibility for the content published by The Motley Fool Australia.

The pattern is consistent enough that it deserves attention. 

The first nine companies to debut on the ASX in 2026 are all now trading in negative territory, down 26% on average from their issue prices. 

That is not bad luck.

Instead, it reflects a well-documented, repeating pattern in IPO markets, one that Australian retail investors tend to learn the hard way.

What actually happened to the first nine ASX IPOs

The most instructive example is SkinKandy Ltd (ASX: SK1), Australia’s largest specialty piercing and jewellery retailer. SkinKandy debuted in May after a ~$160 million IPO.

The company listed with proper business credentials: more than 100 studios across Australia and New Zealand, a profitable track record, and ambitious international expansion plans.

The stock popped on day one, as most ASX IPOs do. Then it faded.

KTEK Aerosystems Ltd (ASX: KTK), the Israeli-founded Perth-headquartered defence composite manufacturer, tells a similar story.

KTK debuted on a strong business tailwind: supplying airframe components to defence contractors including Elbit Systems. KTK’s IPO came at a moment where defence spending was surging globally.

Again, a day-one pop, followed by steady drift below the issue price.

Kaoko Metals Ltd (ASX: KAO), a copper explorer in Namibia with drill-ready projects, also joined the list of underwater debutants despite debuting into a strong copper price environment.

The mechanics of why IPOs so often disappoint after debut

The day-one pop is well documented. But it is consistently a poor guide to long-term returns.

According to updated long-run IPO statistics, the average newly listed company underperforms its peers by approximately 2.1% per year over the five years following its debut, regardless of how strongly it opens on day one.

The problem is that IPO pricing is set by investment banks whose job is to maximise the proceeds for the company being floated. Their job is not to find the price that is most attractive for incoming shareholders.

That means IPOs are more likely to be priced at or above fair value than below it.

Furthermore, the lock-up periods that prevent insiders and pre-IPO investors from selling typically expire in the months following a listing. This then creates persistent selling pressure over the longer-term.

The debut pop is not the same as a buying opportunity

The most common mistake retail investors make with IPOs is confusing the excitement of a debut with evidence that the business is worth buying at that price.

A stock rising 30% on day one tells you that demand exceeded supply at the issue price.

It tells you nothing about whether the issue price was fair relative to the company’s intrinsic value.

In fact, a large day-one pop is often a signal that the investment bank priced the deal too cheaply. This is a gift to institutional investors who were allocated shares at the IPO price, not a gift to retail investors buying in the open market at 30% above that price.

The investors who did well from the 2026 ASX IPO class so far are the institutional investors and sophisticated pre-IPO holders who received allocations at the issue price, not retail investors who chased the opening pop.

What this means for investors considering July’s pipeline

July is set to be the busiest month for ASX IPOs in 2026, with nine more companies scheduled to debut. These future IPOs include an AI-focused listed trust, a rare earths spin-off, and a large commercial construction float.

The lesson from the first nine is not to avoid IPOs entirely. But it is to apply the same analytical discipline to a new listing that you would apply to any other investment.

Ask whether the business model is strong, whether the price being asked is fair, and whether you are being offered a share of the upside that makes the risk worthwhile.

Most of the time, waiting three to six months for the post-IPO dust to settle produces a better entry point than chasing the debut excitement.

Foolish takeaway for ASX IPOs

The first nine ASX IPOs of 2026 are all underwater, down 26% on average.

That is not a coincidence or a run of bad luck. But it does reflect the reality that IPOs are priced to serve sellers, not buyers.

Patient investors who wait for the post-debut hype to fade before assessing a new listing at a more rational price tend to do better over time than those who chase the debut pop.

The post The first nine ASX IPOs of 2026 are all trading in the red. Here is what that tells investors. appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.