Category: Stock Market

The pattern is consistent enough that it deserves attention. 

The first nine companies to debut on the ASX in 2026 are all now trading in negative territory, down 26% on average from their issue prices. 

That is not bad luck.

Instead, it reflects a well-documented, repeating pattern in IPO markets, one that Australian retail investors tend to learn the hard way.

What actually happened to the first nine ASX IPOs

The most instructive example is SkinKandy Ltd (ASX: SK1), Australia’s largest specialty piercing and jewellery retailer. SkinKandy debuted in May after a ~$160 million IPO.

The company listed with proper business credentials: more than 100 studios across Australia and New Zealand, a profitable track record, and ambitious international expansion plans.

The stock popped on day one, as most ASX IPOs do. Then it faded.

KTEK Aerosystems Ltd (ASX: KTK), the Israeli-founded Perth-headquartered defence composite manufacturer, tells a similar story.

KTK debuted on a strong business tailwind: supplying airframe components to defence contractors including Elbit Systems. KTK’s IPO came at a moment where defence spending was surging globally.

Again, a day-one pop, followed by steady drift below the issue price.

Kaoko Metals Ltd (ASX: KAO), a copper explorer in Namibia with drill-ready projects, also joined the list of underwater debutants despite debuting into a strong copper price environment.

The mechanics of why IPOs so often disappoint after debut

The day-one pop is well documented. But it is consistently a poor guide to long-term returns.

According to updated long-run IPO statistics, the average newly listed company underperforms its peers by approximately 2.1% per year over the five years following its debut, regardless of how strongly it opens on day one.

The problem is that IPO pricing is set by investment banks whose job is to maximise the proceeds for the company being floated. Their job is not to find the price that is most attractive for incoming shareholders.

That means IPOs are more likely to be priced at or above fair value than below it.

Furthermore, the lock-up periods that prevent insiders and pre-IPO investors from selling typically expire in the months following a listing. This then creates persistent selling pressure over the longer-term.

The debut pop is not the same as a buying opportunity

The most common mistake retail investors make with IPOs is confusing the excitement of a debut with evidence that the business is worth buying at that price.

A stock rising 30% on day one tells you that demand exceeded supply at the issue price.

It tells you nothing about whether the issue price was fair relative to the company’s intrinsic value.

In fact, a large day-one pop is often a signal that the investment bank priced the deal too cheaply. This is a gift to institutional investors who were allocated shares at the IPO price, not a gift to retail investors buying in the open market at 30% above that price.

The investors who did well from the 2026 ASX IPO class so far are the institutional investors and sophisticated pre-IPO holders who received allocations at the issue price, not retail investors who chased the opening pop.

What this means for investors considering July’s pipeline

July is set to be the busiest month for ASX IPOs in 2026, with nine more companies scheduled to debut. These future IPOs include an AI-focused listed trust, a rare earths spin-off, and a large commercial construction float.

The lesson from the first nine is not to avoid IPOs entirely. But it is to apply the same analytical discipline to a new listing that you would apply to any other investment.

Ask whether the business model is strong, whether the price being asked is fair, and whether you are being offered a share of the upside that makes the risk worthwhile.

Most of the time, waiting three to six months for the post-IPO dust to settle produces a better entry point than chasing the debut excitement.

Foolish takeaway for ASX IPOs

The first nine ASX IPOs of 2026 are all underwater, down 26% on average.

That is not a coincidence or a run of bad luck. But it does reflect the reality that IPOs are priced to serve sellers, not buyers.

Patient investors who wait for the post-debut hype to fade before assessing a new listing at a more rational price tend to do better over time than those who chase the debut pop.

The post The first nine ASX IPOs of 2026 are all trading in the red. Here is what that tells investors. appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The Greatland Resources Ltd (ASX: GGP) share price is in focus today after the miner reported record gold production for FY26, with 328,986 ounces produced—exceeding guidance by 6%—and a cash position of $1,289 million at period end.

What did Greatland Resources report?

• Quarterly production: 79,099 ounces gold (Au), 3,573 tonnes copper (Cu)
• Full-year FY26 production: 328,986oz Au (up 6% on top-end guidance), 14,594t Cu
• Full-year sales: 326,859oz Au, 14,729t Cu
• Cash at 30 June 2026: $1,289 million and zero debt
• $81 million net cash build over the quarter, after capex and $87 million tax paid
• Gold price exposure maintained with downside protection via put options

What else do investors need to know?

The June 2026 quarter saw Greatland Resources generate solid cash flow, ending the period with a strengthened balance sheet and no debt. An additional $20 million in sales was completed late in the quarter, with cash to be received post-period. All-In-Sustaining-Cost (AISC) details are yet to be finalised and will be announced in the company’s full June quarterly report later in July, alongside a management webcast. Greatland also highlighted its full exposure to higher gold prices while retaining some price protection through put options.

What’s next for Greatland Resources?

Investors can expect the detailed June 2026 Quarterly Activities Report later this month, which will include finalised cost data and further operational detail. Management maintains a positive approach with ongoing development of the flagship Havieron gold-copper project and a robust exploration pipeline in the Paterson Province. With a cashed-up balance sheet and substantial recent production outperformance, Greatland is well positioned to pursue further growth and exploration throughout FY27.

Greatland Resources share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Greatland Resources shares have risen 75%, outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 3% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post Greatland Resources posts record FY26 gold output appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips. This article was prepared with the assistance of Large Language Model (LLM) tools for the initial summary of the company announcement. Any content assisted by AI is subject to our robust human-in-the-loop quality control framework, involving thorough review, substantial editing, and fact-checking by our experienced writers and editors holding appropriate credentials. The Motley Fool Australia stands behind the work of our editorial team and takes ultimate responsibility for the content published by The Motley Fool Australia.

ASX defence stocks like Austal Ltd (ASX: ASB) have ridden a rollercoaster over the last 12 months.

Austal is an Australian-based shipbuilder that specialises in the design, construction, and support of defence and commercial vessels globally.  

Austal’s products include naval vessels, defence surface warfare combatants, high-speed support vessels, patrol boats for law enforcement, offshore vessels, as well as passenger and vehicle ferries.

The company also installs and maintains vessel command and control systems, communication and radar technology, and information management systems.

A rollercoaster for Austal shares

Global conflict and defence spending sent Austal shares soaring in early 2026.

In January, Austal shares hit all time highs of almost $9 per share.

However since then, they have been on a steady decline, closing last week at $4.19.

This drop represents almost a 40% dip year to date.

Unfortunately for investors looking to buy the dip, a new report from Bell Potter indicates there are potential headwinds emerging for Austal shares.

Complexity lies ahead

According to a new report from Bell Potter, Austal has a record $17.7 billion order book, giving it strong long-term growth.

But delivering all this work won’t be easy. Bell Potter highlights three main risks:

• Austal is starting several new steel shipbuilding projects at the same time in new facilities, which could lead to early operational problems and delays.
• Some contracts are particularly challenging. For example, the T-AGOS ships have a very complex design that could require costly rework, while the OPC program is under government scrutiny, which could create additional risks and pressure on profits.
• Austal plans to significantly expand its operations in Henderson over the next 12–18 months. If it struggles to hire enough skilled workers, construction of the LCM and LCH vessels could be delayed.

In simple terms, the company has plenty of work lined up, but its biggest challenge is executing it well.

If it can avoid delays, cost overruns, and labour shortages, the large order book should translate into strong earnings. If not, profits could come under pressure even though demand remains high.

Tailwinds for Austal shares

On the positive side, Bell Potter highlighted that Austal is well positioned to benefit from major increases in defence spending in both the US and Australia.

Its shipyards are considered strategically important to expanding naval fleets, giving the company a long-term pipeline of work and strong growth opportunities over the coming decades.

In Australia, ASB holds strategic importance to the shipbuilding industrial base with its appointment by the CoA as Strategic Shipbuilder under the SSA.

The SSA guarantees a continuous, decades-long pipeline of work, estimated by management at over A$20b over 20 years, providing the stability needed to attract, train, and retain a highly skilled local workforce.

Price target downgrade for Austal shares

Based on this guidance, the team at Bell Potter has downgraded its share price target for Austal shares to $4.10 (previously $6.30).

This indicates that the current share price is slightly above fair value.

The broker has retained its hold recommendation on Austal shares.

Although the valuation/growth arithmetic appears attractive, we believe we are entering a period of elevated risks as ASB ramps up several shipbuilding programs.

 

 

 

 

The post Here’s why investors should be concerned about Austal shares moving forward appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

There are a lot of options for investors to choose from in the tech sector.

But one of the best according to Bell Potter could be the ASX tech stock in this article.

Which ASX 200 tech stock?

The stock that Bell Potter is tipping as a top buy is location technology company Life360 Inc. (ASX: 360).

The broker is bullish on the company’s outlook and sees next month’s quarterly update as a potential catalyst for its share price. It explains:

Life360 will report its 2Q2026 result on 11th August and we see it as a potential catalyst for the share price for three key reasons: 1. We expect MAU growth to rebound to 4.3m – consistent with 2Q2025 – if not higher (VA consensus is 4.6m) which importantly will imply an exit run-rate of close to 5m given the Android issues which persisted into April and even May; 2. We expect paying circle growth to be strong again at c.155k which is notably above VA consensus of c.135k and even see upside risk to our forecast closer to the 1Q2026 result of 202k;

And 3. If paying circle growth is >155k then we see potential for a further upgrade to 2026 revenue and EBITDA guidance as paying circle growth is obviously the key driver of subscription revenue. Note also that, if MAU growth is around or above our forecast then we would expect Life360 to maintain its 2026 MAU guidance of 17-20% growth which we would regard as positive given it implies growth of at least 5m in Q3 and Q4.

Life360 shares tipped to rise strongly

According to the note, Bell Potter has retained its buy rating on the ASX 200 tech stock with an improved price target of $35.00 (from $33.00).

Based on its current share price of $27.46, this implies potential upside of 27% for investors over the next 12 months.

Commenting on its investment thesis, the broker said:

We have rolled forward our EV/EBITDA valuation by a year – so that 2027 is now the base – given we are now in 2H2026. We apply a 25x multiple compared to 30x previously. We have also modestly reduced the WACC we apply in the DCF from 9.6% to 9.5% given the prospect of a good Q2 result and potential guidance upgrade. The net result is a 6% increase in our target price to $35.00 which is >15% premium to the share price so we maintain our BUY recommendation.

Life360 is our key pick amongst the large tech stocks we cover based on quality, valuation and potential catalysts. We note the stock looks reasonable value on a 2027 EV/EBITDA multiple of c.23x versus the FY27 EV/EBITDA of Technology One (which has a September year end) of c.26x.

The post Why this incredible ASX 200 tech stock could rise 27% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Life360. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Life360. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Life360. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Are you on the hunt for new portfolio additions in July? If you are, it could be worth hearing what analysts are recommending this week, courtesy of The Bull.

Here are three ASX shares that have been named as buys:

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP)

Catapult Wealth thinks that investors should be considering this mining giant. It has named BHP shares as a buy this week.

The wealth management firm highlights strong copper prices, a robust balance sheet, and an attractive dividend yield as reasons to buy. It said:

The global miner holds dominant positions in iron ore and copper and is leveraged to increasing demand during the energy transition. A review of the Jansen stage 2 potash project in Canada resulted in a cost blowout of about $US2 billion to $US6.9 billion. Despite the Jansen impairment and the risk of industrial action at iron ore operations in the Pilbara region of Western Australia, near term earnings momentum remains strong.

Elevated copper prices and strong iron ore prices supported performance in full year 2026. The balance sheet remains robust with low net debt, while a recent dividend yield above 3 per cent adds income appeal. BHP offers cyclical upside and long term growth exposure to copper.

Dexus Convenience Retail REIT (ASX: DXC)

Another ASX share that is rated positively is Dexus Convenience Retail REIT.  It offers service station and convenience retail assets exposure.

Sanlam Private Wealth has named its shares as a buy, highlighting its cheap valuation and big dividend yield. It said:

This real estate investment trust owns service stations and convenience retail assets, mostly on Australia’s eastern seaboard. The fund’s portfolio was valued at about $760 million on December 31, 2025. The company was recently trading at a significant discount to net tangible assets (NTA) and was yielding about 8 per cent. The trust has an attractive development pipeline, modest debt and recently increased its buy-back target.

Importantly, the NTA is supported by recent asset sales of 1.5 per cent above valuation. Recently announced capital gains tax changes make the company’s assets appealing to self-managed super funds looking for reliable income generating assets. DXC is a solid defensive play in the current environment.

ResMed Inc. (ASX: RMD)

The team at Catapult Wealth is also bullish on this sleep disorder treatment company. This week, it has named ResMed shares as a buy.

The wealth management firm likes the company due to its defensive qualities and positive growth outlook. It said:

ResMed is a global leader in sleep apnoea devices and digital health platforms, benefiting from strong structural demand and resilient clinical positioning. Despite the progression in GLP-1 therapies for treating sleep apnoea, ResMed’s CPAP (continuous positive airway pressure) treatments remain superior at this point in time. RMD continues to offer appealing growth, income and defensive healthcare exposure.

The post Why BHP and these ASX shares could be strong buys this week appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in ResMed. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended ResMed. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended ResMed. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The ASX dividend stock Lovisa Holdings Ltd (ASX: LOV) has dropped heavily over the last year. The Lovisa share price has dropped 50% since August 2025.

Lovisa is one of the world’s leading affordable jewellery businesses, with its global store network spread across every continent.

In fact, the business has at least 20 stores in each of the following countries: Australia, New Zealand, Malaysia, South Africa, the UK, France, Germany, Poland, USA and Canada.

There are multiple reasons why the ASX dividend stock looks really appealing to me. Let’s dive into it.

ASX dividend stock credentials

As a retailer, I think it would be unwise to think that the business can grow its dividend every single year. But the long-term trend is very compelling.

In FY19 – the last year before COVID-19 impacts – the business paid an annual dividend per share of 33 cents. That compares with the two most recent half-year dividends declared by the business, which amounted to 80 cents per share. In other words, in seven years, the Lovisa dividend has grown by approximately 140%.

At the time of writing, its most recent dividends come to a dividend yield of 3.7%, excluding franking credits. Based on the latest dividend’s franking credit rate of 50%, that translates into a grossed-up dividend yield of 4.4%.

Lovisa may not have the biggest dividend yield around, but it’s dividend growth that could make it particularly attractive today.

The Commsec forecast suggests the company’s annual dividend per share could climb to 89 cents in FY27 and 95 cents per share in FY28.

Business growth to drive passive income growth

All the ASX dividend stock seemingly needs to do to grow its payout is expand its global store network, as this will broaden its customer reach and provide scale benefits.

In the FY26 half-year result, the business reported that the global Lovisa store count increased by 15.5% to 1,089. The Lovisa store network achieved revenue growth of 22.7% to $498.1 million and 21.5% growth of net profit after tax (NPTA) to $58.4 million.

The company has also opened a new business in the UK called Jewells, with a higher price point, which gives Lovisa another growth avenue.

But, the most growth is likely to be found in expanding store networks in countries where there’s clearly a growth avenue for more locations (based that market’s population), such as the US, Mexico, Italy, the Netherlands, the UK, China, Germany, France and Canada.

According to the Commsec projection, the Lovisa share price is now valued at 21x FY27’s estimated earnings. If its earnings can continue growing, I think it’s got a very good chance of hiking the dividend in the years ahead.

The post 1 ASX dividend stock down 50% I’d buy right now appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Lovisa. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Lovisa. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Megaport Ltd (ASX: MP1) shares had a standout FY 2026.

Over the 12 months to 30 June, the growing tech share rose almost 50%, while the benchmark ASX 200 index gained around 3%.

Let’s find out why the network services provider’s shares smashed the market.

The Latitude.sh acquisition changed the narrative

Megaport was already known for its network-as-a-service technology, helping businesses connect to cloud providers, data centres, and digital services.

But its acquisition of Latitude.sh pushed the company into a broader market.

Latitude.sh is a compute-as-a-service platform offering high-performance CPU and GPU infrastructure. That gave Megaport a new way to serve customers needing not only connectivity, but also the computing power sitting behind artificial intelligence (AI), cloud-native applications, and data-heavy workloads.

That shifted the market’s view of the company. Megaport was no longer just selling flexible digital connections. It was moving toward a platform combining compute, network, and storage.

In an AI boom, that suddenly looked much more interesting.

Contract wins backed up the strategy

The share price strength was also supported by major contract wins after the Latitude.sh deal.

In April, Megaport announced that Latitude.sh had secured a 36-month compute and storage contract worth approximately A$35.4 million. The company also said Compute annualised recurring revenue (ARR), excluding that contract, had lifted strongly since the acquisition.

The momentum then accelerated in May. Megaport announced three major GPU, CPU, network, and storage contracts across two US-based technology customers running AI applications and inference workloads. Those contracts had a combined total contract value of approximately A$254 million and were expected to add about A$90.6 million in ARR once fully deployed.

That was a major validation point. Investors could see the Latitude.sh acquisition turning into real contracted demand, not just a strategic idea.

AI infrastructure became the bigger opportunity

The excitement increased again in June, when Megaport announced four new major contracts with total contract value of approximately A$458.9 million and ARR of about A$199 million.

These contracts were linked to US-based technology providers running AI applications and inference workloads.

Megaport also announced plans for a globally distributed AI inference cloud, including an on-demand GPU pool. That pointed to a much bigger ambition: giving customers access to compute power closer to users, data, and cloud platforms.

The company backed this with an $827.3 million entitlement offer to fund new compute, network, storage, and GPU capacity.

Capital raisings can sometimes weigh on share prices. But in this case, investors had large contracts and strong AI demand to assess alongside the dilution.

A breakout year

Megaport shares smashed the ASX 200 in FY 2026 because its growth story became larger and more tangible.

The Latitude.sh acquisition gave the company compute exposure, while the contract wins showed real demand from AI-related customers.

It is worth remembering that Megaport still has to deploy capital well, deliver hardware, manage customer concentration, and prove that these contracts convert into attractive returns.

But FY 2026 clearly was the year Megaport moved from cloud connectivity story to AI infrastructure contender, and the share price unsurprisingly followed.

The post Why did Megaport shares smash the ASX 200 in FY26? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Megaport. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Megaport. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

On Friday, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) finished the week in positive territory. The benchmark index rose 1.4% to 8,844.4 points.

Will the market be able to build on this on Monday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to fall

The Australian share market looks set for a poor start to the week despite a strong session in Europe on Friday. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 35 points or 0.4% lower. In the United States, Wall Street was closed for a public holiday. In Europe, the DAX was up 0.8%, the FTSE rose 0.25%, and the CAC climbed 0.4%.

Oil prices edge higher

ASX 200 energy shares Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) could have a reasonably positive start to the week after oil prices edged higher on Friday night. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price was up 0.15% to US$68.78 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price was up 0.45% to US$72.12 a barrel. This was despite OPEC approving further output increases.

Austal shares given hold rating

Bell Potter thinks Austal Ltd (ASX: ASB) shares are fully valued at current levels. This morning, the broker has retained its hold rating on the shipbuilder’s shares with a heavily reduced price target of $4.10 (from $6.30). Bell Potter said: “We downgrade our FY27-29e underlying earnings but upgrade statutory reflecting incorporation of MMF3/GDEB revenue. Our TP is lower on FY27 uEBIT downgrade. Although the valuation/growth arithmetic appears attractive, we believe we are entering a period of elevated risks as ASB ramps up several shipbuilding programs. A T-AGOS contract modification presents a potential near-term positive catalyst.”

Gold price storms higher

ASX 200 gold shares Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) could have a solid start to the week after the gold price stormed higher on Friday night. According to CNBC, the gold futures price was up 1.5% to US$4,187.3 an ounce. This was driven by traders scaling back their interest rate hike bets.

Buy ResMed shares

Morgans has named ResMed Inc. (ASX: RMD) shares as a buy. According to the note, the broker has retained its buy rating and $41.72 price target on the medical device company’s shares. It thinks recent weakness has created a buying opportunity. The broker commented: “RMD has de-rated to ~16x forward earnings, its lowest valuation since the post-GFC period, despite consensus continuing to forecast double-digit EPS growth. GLP-1 therapies, positive Phase III data from Apnimed’s oral OSA therapy, the prospect of Philips re-entering the US PAP market from 2027 and broader healthcare sector de-rating, have driven recent share price weakness. While these risks are real, current industry data and RMD’s operating performance provide limited evidence of a material deterioration in underlying demand. We make no changes to FY26-28 forecasts or our A$41.72 target price. BUY.”

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in ResMed and Woodside Energy Group Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended ResMed. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended ResMed. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares ended last week 1.5% higher, climbing back above the $60 mark after recovering from a weak June.

While the mining giant lost around 6% during the month, the stock is still up an impressive 58% over the past 12 months.

So, where do brokers see BHP shares heading in FY27, and are they still worth buying today?

What do the experts think?

After a stellar 12-month run, analysts have become more measured on BHP shares. Most brokers now have a hold recommendation on the mining stock. They seem to suggest that much of the recent optimism is already reflected in the share price.

According to consensus estimates, the average 12-month price target sits around 6% above current levels, suggesting analysts still expect modest gains, but not another breakout year.

Morgan Stanley remains among the more bullish brokers. Last week, the investment bank reaffirmed its buy rating on BHP shares and maintained a 12-month price target of $67.50. That implies upside of more than 10% from current levels, excluding dividends.

For income-focused investors, BHP’s sizeable dividend payments could further enhance total returns if commodity prices remain supportive.

Why BHP remains a quality miner

BHP continues to stand out as one of the world’s highest-quality diversified mining companies.

Its portfolio spans iron ore, copper, potash and metallurgical coal, giving investors exposure to commodities that are expected to play an important role in global infrastructure spending and the energy transition.

Copper, in particular, has become an increasingly important growth driver. Rising demand from electrification, renewable energy and artificial intelligence-related infrastructure is expected to support long-term consumption, and BHP has been investing heavily to expand its exposure to the metal.

Meanwhile, its low-cost iron ore operations in Western Australia continue to generate strong cash flows, providing the financial strength to invest through commodity cycles while rewarding investors in BHP shares with dividends.

Why did BHP shares fall in June?

Despite its strong long-term performance, BHP shares came under pressure during June.

The decline largely reflected weaker iron ore prices, as investors became increasingly concerned about slowing steel demand in China. Continued uncertainty surrounding China’s property sector and broader economic growth also weighed on sentiment across the mining sector.

The company also disappointed investors in June with another cost blowout at its Jansen potash project. That and some profit taking likely added to the selling pressure.

However, the pullback proved short-lived, with BHP shares regaining momentum and reclaiming the $60 level last week.

The risks to watch in FY27

While BHP remains well positioned over the long term, investors should be aware of several risks. Commodity prices remain the biggest variable. A sustained decline in iron ore or copper prices would likely pressure earnings and dividends.

China also remains a critical market for BHP, meaning any further slowdown in construction activity or industrial production could affect demand.

In addition, large mining projects face ongoing risks from cost inflation, operational disruptions and regulatory changes.

Even so, BHP’s strong balance sheet, diversified asset base and disciplined capital allocation leave it well placed to navigate periods of market volatility.

With analysts expecting further, albeit more modest upside, BHP shares could still appeal to long-term investors seeking exposure to high-quality mining assets and reliable dividend income in FY27.

The post Should you buy BHP shares in FY27? This is what experts think appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has positions in BHP Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

For many Australians, the 50s are when superannuation suddenly becomes very real.

In your 30s and 40s, retirement can still feel distant enough to ignore. There are mortgages, children, bills, career changes, and everyday costs competing for attention. Super often sits quietly in the background, growing slowly and receiving very little thought.

But by the time you reach your 50s, the balance starts to matter in a different way. Retirement is no longer an abstract future event. It is close enough that the decisions you make now can have a meaningful impact on how much choice you have later.

The final stretch can do a lot of work

One of the biggest misconceptions about super is that if you are behind by 50, the game is already over.

That is not true. In fact, the decade before retirement can be one of the most powerful periods for superannuation growth. This is because your balance is usually much larger than it was earlier in life, which means investment returns can have a bigger dollar impact.

A 7% return on a $50,000 balance is useful. The same return on a $300,000 superannuation balance is much more meaningful.

This is also the period where many Australians reach their highest earning years. If mortgage pressure has eased or children are becoming more independent, there may be more room to make additional contributions.

Small changes can still matter

The good news is that improving your superannuation in your 50s does not always require major sacrifices.

Reviewing fees, checking whether your investment option still makes sense, consolidating accounts, and considering extra contributions can all help. None of these steps may feel life-changing on their own, but together they can make a noticeable difference over 10 to 15 years.

The key is that the changes need to happen while there is still time for them to work.

Waiting until retirement is only a year or two away leaves far fewer options.

Being too conservative can be costly

As retirement gets closer, many Australians naturally become more cautious. That is understandable, because nobody wants to see their super fall sharply just before they stop working.

But being too conservative too early can create its own risk.

A person retiring in their 60s may still need their super to last 20 or 30 years. That means growth still matters, even after retirement begins.

The right investment mix will depend on personal circumstances, but moving completely away from growth assets too early may reduce the ability of a super balance to keep up with inflation and withdrawals.

Retirement is not a single date

Another reason your 50s matter is that retirement does not have to happen all at once.

Some people work full time until a set date and then stop completely. Others gradually reduce hours, move into consulting, or work part time for several years.

That flexibility can be important. Even a few extra years of income can reduce pressure on super, allow contributions to continue, and give investments more time to compound.

For many Australians, the path to retirement is less like flicking a switch and more like slowly turning down the volume on work.

Foolish takeaway

Your 50s are not too late to make a difference to your superannuation.

They may actually be the years where smart decisions count the most. A larger balance, higher earnings, and a clearer view of retirement can all work together to improve your outcome.

The important thing is not to panic if you feel behind. It is to pay attention, take control, and use the time you still have wisely.

The post Why your superannuation in your 50s may matter more than you think appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.