Over the past year or two, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has enjoyed a significant rally. The ASX 200 has lifted from under 7,000 points in late 2023 to the all-time record high of 9,115.2 points that we saw last year. At today’s pricing, the index is sitting at 8,932 points at the time of writing, up more than 30% from that 2023 low. This push higher has obviously been good news for many ASX investors. However, it has also had the less-welcome side effect of reducing the yields that many popular ASX 200 dividend shares trade on.

What was a common yield in 2022 or 2023 now looks like a missed opportunity in 2026.

But although yields are down across the board, there are still opportunities to buy ASX dividend shares today and secure a decent stream of passive income. So today, let’s go over five ASX dividend shares that look set to pay a dividend yield of around 4%, provided they keep their 2026 payouts at at least 2025’s levels, of course.

Five ASX dividend shares that could pay a 4% yield in 2026

First up is Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS). This telecommunications provider has long been known as one of the dividend income heavyweights of the ASX. Telstra has done a commendable job of raising its dividends like clockwork in recent years. The 19 cents per share in fully franked dividends that the company forked out last year gives Telstra a trailing dividend yield of 3.94% at current pricing.

It will come as no surprise to income investors that our next stock is an ASX 200 bank. ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ), like its major bank peers, has a long and respectable track record of providing its investors with fat dividends. This ASX dividend share has had a heck of a run, up almost 60% since mid-2023. That has reduced its dividend yield substantially. But even so, the $1.66 in dividends per share (albeit partially franked) that this bank paid out in 2025 gives ANZ a trailing dividend yield of 4.56% today.

It’s a similar story with NAB’s ASX banking stablemate Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC). Like NAB, Westpac shares have enjoyed a solid run over the past few years, almost doubling in value since mid-2023 with its 91% gain. In 2025, Westpac funded two fully franked dividends, worth 76 and 77 cents per share respectively. These give this ASX dividend share a dividend yield of 3.94% today.

Last but not least…

Turning away from the banking sector now, it’s time to check out Transurban Group (ASX: TCL). Transurban is famous (or perhaps infamous) for owning the vast majority of tolled arterial roads across Australia, most notably in Sydney and Melbourne. These toll roads give Transurban a steady stream of cash flow, which the company uses to fund a robust and reliable dividend. 2025 was the fourth year in a row that investors enjoyed a dividend increase, with the company paying out 32 cents per share in February and 33 cents in August.  These give the company a trailing yield of 4.86% today (although that doesn’t come fully franked).

Finally, let’s get back to another telco with TPG Telecom Ltd (ASX: TPG). TPG is smaller than Telstra, although arguably more agile. But like its larger rival, this ASX dividend share has become a reliable income payer. TPG has funded two dividends per year for the past few years, which have all come in at 9 cents per share (and fully franked) since 2022. Even if we disregard the additional capital return from last year, these dividends give TPG shares a hefty dividend yield of 4.66% today.

The post 5 ASX dividend shares paying 4% a year on average in 2026! appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Telstra shares’ last all-time high? It will shock you
• Forget term deposits! I’d buy these two ASX 200 shares instead
• Sell alert! Why this analyst is calling time on ANZ shares
• My 3 best ASX dividend-focused stocks to buy in February
• How much could the Telstra share price rise in the next year?

Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Transurban Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Telstra Group and Transurban Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

ASX growth shares trading at much lower valuations can be great investments. When excellent businesses trade at better value, I think it’s worthwhile jumping on the opportunity while it’s still available.

Businesses that are growing (earnings) at a good pace with plans for further expansion are ones I’d focus on.

The three ASX growth shares I’ll highlight are definitely ones to watch and potentially buy.

Guzman Y Gomez Ltd (ASX: GYG)

GYG is a Mexican food business that is delivering impressive growth.

At the end of the first quarter of FY26, it had 227 restaurants in Australia, 22 in Singapore, five in Japan and seven in the US.

I’m expecting the business to add locations in each country, particularly in Australia as it builds towards 1,000 restaurants in its home market over the next two decades.

The FY26 first quarter demonstrated the progress the company is making – quarterly total network sales grew by 18.6% year-over-year to $330.6 million.

Growing scale should help the business to deliver improving profit margins and help accelerate its bottom line. As long as the company’s Australian comparable sales remain positive and above inflation over time, I think the company is on track for a very good future.

As a bonus, Asian growth (Japan, Singapore and potentially other countries) could help the business deliver more growth than investors are expecting.

The ASX growth share looks a lot cheaper after falling around 40% in the past year.

Lovisa Holdings Ltd (ASX: LOV)

Lovisa is a retailer of affordable jewellery with a truly global store network spread across numerous countries including Australia, New Zealand, France, Spain, Germany, the UK, the USA, Canada, South Africa, Poland, Mexico and many more.

The company is delivering rapid sales growth – in the first 20 weeks of FY26, global sales were up 26% year-over-year, benefiting from the ongoing store rollout. It opened 44 new net stores in the first 20 weeks of FY26, taking its total store count to 1,075 across more than 50 markets. It was a year-over-year increase of 148 more stores.

It can take an initial investment and cost to build a particular country’s store network to a certain scale, but once it reaches that scale, size benefits can play an important role in boosting earnings.

I’m expecting the company’s operating profit (EBIT) margin to increase in the coming years.

The ASX growth share looks good value to me after dropping around 30% since the end of August 2025.

VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF (ASX: MOAT)

This exchange-traded fund (ETF) invests in some of the best companies in the US. If we’re going to invest internationally, we may as well invest in the best ones.

The fund looks for businesses it thinks have economic moats (competitive advantages) that are more likely than not to endure for at least 20 years and help the business generate strong profits during that time.

An economic moat can come in a variety of forms such as cost advantages, intellectual property, brand power, network effects and regulatory advantages.

With a shortlist of great businesses, the MOAT ETF only invests when Morningstar analysts think they’re trading at good value, which helps improve the chances of the fund outperforming other investments.

It looks cheaper today after dropping around 5% since mid-January.

The post 3 ASX growth shares to buy now while they’re on sale appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has positions in Guzman Y Gomez and VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Lovisa. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Lovisa and VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Shares in St Barbara Ltd (ASX: SBM) are on the rise on Wednesday. This comes after the gold miner released a major update on its Simberi Gold Project in Papua New Guinea (PNG).

The company’s shares were lifted from a trading halt this morning following the announcement. At the time of writing, the St Barbara share price is up 4.05 % to 77 cents, after closing at 74 cents before the halt on Tuesday.

Simberi mining lease extension approved

In an ASX release today, St Barbara confirmed that the Simberi Mining Lease (ML 136) has been formally extended to 2038.

The approval relates to the New Simberi Gold Project and provides long-term certainty over the company’s most important operating asset. The extension aligns with the current mine plan and is based on proven and probable ore reserves outlined in the Simberi feasibility study.

This was one of the key issues holding the project back and now allows St Barbara to move ahead with its next phase.

What the approval unlocks

St Barbara has been planning a major expansion at Simberi, including a move into sulphide ore mining. That expansion is expected to significantly lift gold production and extend the mine’s life.

According to the company, the mining lease extension was an important requirement for funding and ownership changes linked to the project. With the lease now extended, St Barbara expects to move toward a final investment decision later in FY26.

The company has previously said the expanded Simberi operation could produce more than 200,000 ounces of gold each year. That would mark a significant increase from current production levels.

Strategic partners now move closer

Today’s approval also satisfies a key condition tied to previously announced agreements with Lingbao Gold Group and Kumul Minerals Holdings, PNG’s state-owned mining entity.

Under those agreements, Lingbao is set to acquire a 50 % interest in St Barbara Mining, while Kumul is expected to take a 20 % stake in the Simberi Gold Project. Both transactions were dependent on the mining lease extension being finalised.

St Barbara said the lease extension allows these transactions to move forward as planned.

What happens next

Alongside the lease update, St Barbara also released its quarterly results, showing Simberi continues to generate cash despite recent operational challenges.

With the lease extension now locked in, investor focus is likely to shift to funding, final approvals, and timing around the project’s expansion.

Foolish takeaway

Today’s update gives investors clearer visibility on the path ahead, but several milestones still need to fall into place. The next focus will be funding arrangements and progress toward a final investment decision.

Investors are likely to look ahead to the company’s half-year results next month for further detail.

The post A major green light sends this ASX gold stock higher today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

In afternoon trade, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is on course to record a small decline. At the time of writing, the benchmark index is down 0.3% to 8,915.6 points.

Four ASX shares that are not letting that hold them back are listed below. Here’s why they are rising:

Benz Mining Corp (ASX: BNZ)

The Benz Mining share price is up 23% to $2.77. This follows the release of a drilling update from the gold explorer. Strong results were achieved at the Glenburgh Gold Project in Western Australia. Benz CEO, Mark Lynch-Staunton, commented: “Results from the latest drilling at Icon and Tuxedo continue to reinforce our view that this is a large, coherent mineralised system with genuine scale. […] Glenburgh is rapidly emerging as a genuinely large gold system, and each round of drilling continues to build scale, confidence and long-term value for shareholders.”

Boss Energy Ltd (ASX: BOE)

The Boss Energy share price is up 9% to $1.96. Investors have been buying the uranium producer’s shares following the release of a solid quarterly update this morning. Boss Energy reported record drummed production of 456 klbs U3O8 and IX production of 406 klbs for the three months from the Honeymoon operation. This represents an 18% and 8% increase, respectively. Another positive was that Honeymoon’s C1 costs were $30 per pound (US$20 per pound). This is down 12% following positive results from reagent optimisation in the wellfields and plant.

Develop Global Ltd (ASX: DVP)

The Develop Global share price is up 1.5% to $5.60. This follows the release of the mining and mining services company’s quarterly update. The company reported a 98.5% increase in quarterly revenue to $39.1 million from 9,472 tonnes of concentrate sales. Develop’s managing director, Bill Beament, said: “It was a pivotal quarter for Develop which has set up the company for rapid growth in copper, zinc and silver/gold production.”

DigiCo Infrastructure REIT (ASX: DGT)

The DigiCo Infrastructure REIT share price is up 4.5% to $2.73. This appears to have been driven by a broker note out of Bell Potter. It upgraded the data centre company’s shares to a buy rating with a $3.25 price target. The broker said: “Stock has been a key underperformer across the REIT sector last 6m (-17% vs. -3% XPJ), but yet there is now more certainty on leasing / FFO in FY26+ post guidance update.” Bell Potter’s price target implies further upside of 19% for investors over the next 12 months.

The post Why Benz Mining, Boss Energy, Develop Global, and Digico shares are storming higher today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Up 54% since December, can Boss Energy shares keep racing higher in 2026?

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

A 60% share price fall in just 12 months is enough to scare off even confident investors. When it happens to a popular ASX 200 stock, it naturally raises a hard question. Is this a value opportunity, or a warning sign?

In the case of Telix Pharmaceuticals Ltd (ASX: TLX), I think the answer leans strongly toward opportunity.

Telix shares are trading around levels not seen since early 2024, despite the underlying business continuing to progress. For patient investors, this looks increasingly like a rare reset rather than a broken story.

Why this ASX 200 stock collapsed

The sell-off wasn’t driven by a single issue. It was a combination of disappointment, uncertainty, and broader sector pressure.

Last year, investors became frustrated by delays and shifting timelines across Telix’s development pipeline. Expectations had been high following the success of Illuccix, and when subsequent programs took longer to progress, sentiment turned quickly.

At the same time, the global biotech sector was hit by policy noise out of the US. Proposed tariffs on pharmaceutical products, particularly those manufactured outside the US, weighed heavily on valuations across the industry. Even though the long-term impact was unclear, markets reacted first and asked questions later.

Overlay that with a general risk-off environment for growth stocks, and Telix found itself caught in a perfect storm.

What the market may be missing now

The recent fourth-quarter update showed that Telix’s core business remains very much intact.

The company met its FY25 guidance, delivering strong revenue growth driven by Illuccix, which is now well established in the US prostate cancer imaging market. Importantly, Telix continues to reinvest those cash flows into expanding its product portfolio rather than standing still.

The update also highlighted steady progress across multiple development programs, including kidney, brain, and therapeutic radiopharmaceutical candidates. While not every program will succeed, the breadth of the pipeline materially reduces reliance on a single product over time.

In my view, the market has focused too heavily on what hasn’t happened yet and not enough on what is already working.

Why this could be a rare opportunity

Telix today is not the same company it was before Illuccix was commercialised. It now has meaningful revenue, a growing installed base, and the ability to self-fund development.

Yet the share price suggests the market is treating it like a pre-revenue biotech again.

That disconnect doesn’t last forever.

If Telix continues to execute, delivers incremental pipeline progress, and avoids further major delays, sentiment could turn quickly. From these levels, even a partial re-rating of this ASX 200 stock could produce outsized returns.

Foolish takeaway

Buying a stock after a 60% fall is never comfortable. But discomfort is often where the best long-term opportunities emerge.

Telix Pharmaceuticals remains a high-risk investment. That hasn’t changed. What has changed is the price investors are being asked to pay for that risk.

For those with patience and a tolerance for volatility, I think this looks less like a falling knife and more like a once-in-a-decade chance to buy into a proven radiopharmaceutical business at a heavily discounted valuation.

The post Down 60%, is there a once-in-a-decade opportunity in this ASX 200 stock? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Telix Pharmaceuticals. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Telix Pharmaceuticals. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is out of form and trading lower on Wednesday. In afternoon trade, the benchmark index is down 0.3% to 8,914.3 points.

Four ASX shares that are falling more than most today are listed below. Here’s why they are dropping:

AUB Group Ltd (ASX: AUB)

The AUB Group share price is down 6% to $30.01. This morning, this insurance broker network company announced the successful completion of a share placement. AUB raised $400 million at a discount of $29.40 per new share. The company advised that the placement saw significant demand and support from both existing and new shareholders. AUB’s CEO, Mike Emmett, said: “We are pleased with the outcome and thank our shareholders for their strong support for the Placement and the transaction. We are excited for Prestige to join the AUB Group and look forward to accelerating our UK Retail strategy to deliver value for shareholders.”

Aurelia Metals Ltd (ASX: AMI)

The Aurelia Metals share price is down 3% to 34 cents. This morning, this gold miner announced that its CEO, Bryan Quinn, will be stepping down to pursue other career opportunities. Mr Quinn plans to remain with the company until the end of July. This is to ensure a smooth leadership transition and maintain the momentum across key operational and growth initiatives. Quinn commented: “I have greatly enjoyed my time working with the Aurelia team. It has been a privilege to lead the company as we improved market value, strengthened our strategic position, and built a strong leadership team with a performance-driven culture.”

DroneShield Ltd (ASX: DRO)

The DroneShield share price is down 3.5% to $4.04. Investors have been selling this counter-drone technology company’s shares since the release of its update this week. While it was a strong update, investors appear concerned by a reduction in its sales pipeline. Bell Potter wasn’t concerned and has retained its buy rating and $5.00 price target on its shares. It said: “We believe DRO should see material contracts flowing from its $2.1b potential sales pipeline over the next 3-6 months as defence budgets roll over to FY26e.”

Elevra Lithium Ltd (ASX: ELV)

The Elevra Lithium share price is down 14% to $7.89. This morning, this lithium miner released its quarterly update, which appears to have fallen short of expectations. Elevra reported a disappointing 15% quarter on quarter decline in spodumene concentrate production to 44,154 dmt. The company also revealed that its received US$998 per tonne for its lithium, whereas its unit operating costs were US$812 per tonne.

The post Why AUB, Aurelia Metals, DroneShield, and Elevra Lithium shares are dropping today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended DroneShield. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Aub Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS) shares are a staple of the ASX. This ASX 200 telco is one of the most widely held shares in Australian investors’ portfolios. It’s not hard to see why.

Since its privatisation back in the 1990s and early 2000s, Telstra has built up a formidable reputation as one of the ASX’s most reliable dividend payers. Its ongoing dominance of the Australian mobile and fixed-line markets arguably gives this company a wide economic moat, protecting its defensive earnings base from competition and less-than-favourable economic conditions.

As it stands today, Telstra shares have come off what has been one of the telco’s best years in quite a while. This time last year, Telstra shares were under $4 each. Today, those same shares are trading at $4.82 at the time of writing, up 21% from a year ago. That gain stretches to an even more impressive 54.3% over the past five years.

In the middle of last year, Telstra delighted investors by hitting $5.14 a share, the highest price the telco had traded at in about eight years. However, that $5.14 share price was far from the highest this company has ever traded at. Today, let’s discuss just how high Telstra has gotten in the past, and whether we might see that level again.

What is the highest price Telstra shares have ever been?

If you thought Telstra had been as high as $6 a share before, you’d be correct. In fact, as recently as 2015, Tesltra reached as high as $6.61. But, although significant at the time, that is not the company’s record price. It is not in the $7, or even $8 range either. No, Telstra’s reigning all-time record high is $9.16 a share. That was reached way back in late 1999. At today’s pricing, Tesltra is roughly half the size that it was back at the turn of the millennium.

That might sound unbelievable. But it’s worth remembering that the Telstra of 1999 is a very different beast from the company we see today. Back then, the company’s primary business was providing landline telephony services. Dial-up internet was still common, and, as a recently privatised company, Telstra faced far less competition. In fact, companies were only permitted to start competing against the former monopoly provider in the 1990s.

This was also before Telstra was forced to sell its old copper network to the NBN in the 2010s, which further eroded its monopolistic position.

Additionally, Telstra shares probably benefited enormously from the stock market boom that the markets enjoyed in the late 1990s, which was only popped by the dot-com crash a few years later. As such, we can conclude that this record high was something of a historical blip.

Perhaps Telstra will hit $9 again at some point in the future. But for now, this stock’s history remains a rather unique story, showcasing the changing nature of the share market.

The post Telstra shares’ last all-time high? It will shock you appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Telstra Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) started the day in the green before running into headwinds at 11:30am AEDT.

That’s when the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released the latest inflation data covering the full 2025 calendar year.

In the minute following that release, the ASX 200 sank 0.2% as investors reassessed the odds of a potential interest rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), with the odds of a rate cut all but evaporating.

The RBA meets again next week and makes its first interest rate announcement for 2026 on Tuesday, 3 February. The official cash rate currently stands at 3.60%.

Here’s what’s got investors feeling jittery today.

ASX 200 dips on rising inflation

The ABS reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.8% in the 12 months to December.

“The 3.8% annual CPI inflation to December was up from 3.4% to November,” ABS head of prices statistics Michelle Marquardt said.

Spurring the price rises pressuring the ASX 200 today, housing increased by 5.5%, while food and non-alcoholic beverages prices increased by 3.4% in 2025. Recreation and culture rose by 4.4%.

Unfortunately, trimmed mean inflation, the RBA’s preferred gauge, which takes out certain volatile items, also ticked higher.

“Trimmed mean inflation was 3.3% in the 12 months to December 2025, up from 3.2% in the 12 months to November 2025,” Marquardt said.

What are the experts saying on RBA interest rates?

Commenting on the outlook for interest rates amid the resurgent inflation figures, Russell Chesler, VanEck head of investments and capital markets, said (quoted by The Australian Financial Review):

The market has been predicting two rate hikes this year, with the first in May, but at this level of inflation, the first rate hike could be sooner – possibly even at next week’s RBA meeting.

Global X senior investment strategist Marc Jocum also expects ASX 200 investors will see interest rate hikes in 2026.

According to Jocum:

This December print matters because the RBA focuses most heavily on the quarterly trimmed mean as its preferred gauge of underlying inflation, rather than reacting to short-term volatility in the monthly headline numbers. Unfortunately, this quarterly number came hotter than expected at 3.4% year on year compared to 3.3% expected and 3.0% in Q3 2025.

Noting that inflation remains above the RBA’s 2% to 3% target range, and has been rising, Jocum said, “A hawkish hold still seems to be the central scenario for February’s meeting, but the risks around that call are clearly skewed and mounting toward a rate hike.”

The ASX 200 remains up 6.3% over 12 months.

The post ASX 200 sinks as inflation spike dashes hopes for RBA interest rate relief appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares are marching higher today.

Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) mining giant closed yesterday trading for $49.75. As we head into the Wednesday lunch hour, shares are changing hands for $50.61 each, up 1.7%. 

After a strong nine-month run, this sees BHP now commanding a market cap of $257.5 billion. That’s helping to cement its recently reclaimed title as the biggest stock on the ASX, surpassing the $252.1 billion market cap of Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA). 

Amid a resurgent iron ore price and surging copper prices (BHP’s number one and number two revenue earners), BHP shares have rocketed 48.5% from their 9 April one-year lows.

Atop those capital gains, the ASX 200 mining stock also trades on a fully-franked trailing dividend yield of 3.4%.

And according to Sanlam Private Wealth’s Remo Greco, the stock’s strong run could have a lengthy way to go yet (courtesy of The Bull). 

Should you buy BHP shares today?

The first reason Greco is bullish on the ASX 200 miner is the outlook for ongoing global growth and the resources demand that growth entails.

According to Greco:

The resources upgrade cycle continues to unfold as global growth conditions strengthen into 2026. Expected US interest rate cuts should stimulate global growth and put downward pressure on the US dollar.

The second reason BHP shares could continue to outperform in 2026 is the relatively tight supply side of the global resource story.

Greco noted:

Commodity markets are already tight in terms of adequate supply, and this is already pushing mining stocks higher. This is a global theme. BHP fits the bill as global investors are drawn to earnings upgrades driving share price gains.

And the third reason you might want to buy shares in the biggest ASX stock is the potential for further strengthening of the Aussie dollar.

The Aussie dollar is currently fetching 70.2 US cents. That’s up 5.1% from 66.8 US cents on 1 January.

Commenting on the potential impact on the returns from BHP shares, Greco said, “Also, investors are exposed to a currency gain if the Australian dollar strengthens during 2026.” 

ASX 200 mining stock eyeing ongoing strength in iron ore price

The copper price has rocketed 43% over the past 12 months. The red metal is currently trading for US$13,007 per tonne, with many analysts forecasting more gains ahead amid strong demand for the global energy transition.

And in potentially good news for BHP shares, the iron ore price may also defy some analyst forecasts of a sharp fall to US$80 per tonne.

Iron ore dipped to US$93 per tonne in early July and is currently fetching US$104 per tonne.

And according to the latest research from Deutsche Bank, iron ore prices should average comfortably above US$100 per tonne through 2026.

Deutsche Bank noted (quoted by The Australian Financial Review):

For 2026 as a whole, we forecast a balanced market with a bias towards surplus in H2; iron ore port inventories climbed through most of 2025 and currently sit at the highest level since 2022, while Chinese domestic steel demand continues to contract due to property market weakness.

Potential steel production regulation in China remains a theme, but the same had been said a year ago yet Chinese exports reached record levels in 2025. Our central assumption is only a modest reduction in steel exports in 2026.

We forecast average prices of $US106 a tonne in Q1 and $US102/t for 2026.

The post 3 compelling reasons to buy BHP shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The gold analysts at RBC Capital Markets had a slight problem – the price of gold blew past their upside projections within weeks of the year’s start.

The team have therefore had another look at the forces driving the price of the precious metal higher, and has calculated how high gold could go if it replicated last year’s record-breaking performance.

They said around their initial forecast:

Our call has been that gold would trade mostly in the US$4500-5000/oz range this year with upside risk mostly in H2 and allowing for it to trade as high as US$5203/oz on average in Q4 in our high scenario. Reaching above US$5000/oz was possible, even likely, in our view later this year, but the pace of this rally has surpassed our expectations – arguably a familiar story given the pace of gold’s gains last year. This leaves us with several questions: Are these prices sustainable? How high could they go? What does past experience tell us?

Gold price stimulus still in place

The current drivers of the surge in the gold price, RBC said in their note to clients, were uncertainty and macroeconomic factors, especially weakness in the US dollar.

They added:

Between trade, politics, geopolitical instability, Fed independence concerns, etc., there are plenty of drivers to look at, so our top theme for 2026 is certainly alive and well. Likewise, based on all our conversations in the first few weeks of the year, we do not think investor or central bank demand will fall away, with more tonnage added … and central banks still in the buying camp in search of diversification.  

Time left to run for this rally

So how high could the price of gold go? RBC has looked at previous gold rallies going back to the 1980s and said that they tend to last 1062-1168 days.

Given the current rally was 844 days old at the time of publication of their research note, “similar major rallies of the past point to early September or mid-December (essentially the end of the year) based on duration alone”.

And in terms of the price, using 2025 as a proxy, the price could go much higher.

The RBC team said:

Already gold has set 8 new all-time highs in 2026 (well above last year’s average pace), making another 2025-style year look possible. Many of the same underpinnings are there and importantly, we still do not get a sense of exhaustion in terms of accumulation from investors or from the official sector (i.e., central banks). Using 2025’s gains as a proxy, scaling similar ground in percentage terms would put gold as high as US$7100/oz at year end.

The RBC team said that while their projections were “not exactly scientific”, they did provide some context around how long gold rallies tend to run, and how strong they can be.

The gold price was US$5186.65 per ounce on Wednesday morning.

The post How high could gold go if it replicates last year’s run? The figure will astound you appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.