Was it a good idea to own Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares in 2025?

While it wasn’t an incredible year for Australia’s largest bank, at least compared to recent years, shareholders are still likely to have been smiling at the end of it.

What happened with the CBA share price in 2025?

The banking giant’s shares ended 2024 trading at $153.25.

At one stage in June, the CBA share price had gone on an incredible run and found itself at a record high of $192.00.

This meant that up to that point, the bank’s shares had risen by an impressive 25%. At this point, it was looking like another year of outperformance for its shares despite brokers warning of overvaluation.

That was arguably the time to lock in your gains, because it wasn’t too long after reaching this record high that its shares started to head south.

For example, its shares were down at around $151.00 in November following the release of a softer-than-expected quarterly update from the bank. From top to bottom, that’s a decline of 21%.

Fortunately, its shares were able to find their legs by the end of the year and recovered to finish the period at $160.57. This means that the CBA share price recorded an annual gain of 4.8%.

However, this was a touch short of the performance of the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO), which rose 6.8% in 2025.

Don’t forget the dividends

CBA is one of the nation’s biggest dividend payers and 2025 was no exception.

During the 12 months, the bank paid a $2.25 per share fully franked interim dividend in March, followed by a $2.60 per share fully franked final dividend in September.

This represents a dividend yield of approximately 3.2%, which boosts the total annual return to 8%.

That may not be as great as in recent years, but is certainly a decent return all things considered.

What’s next for CBA shares?

As was the case in previous years, brokers overwhelmingly believe that the CBA share price could be heading lower in 2026 for valuation reasons.

For example, the team at Morgans has a sell rating and $99.81 price target on its shares. This implies potential downside of almost 40% for investors from current levels. It said:

We’ve downgraded FY26-28F EPS and DPS by c.3%. Lower earnings also reduces terminal ROTE and sustainable growth in our DCF valuation. DCF-based target price declines to $96.07/sh. We remain SELL rated on CBA, recommending clients aggressively reduce overweight positions given the risk of poor future investment returns arising from the even-now overvalued share price and low-to-mid single digit EPS/DPS growth outlook.

Time will tell if brokers are on the money with their recommendations this year.

The post How did the CBA share price perform in 2025? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 6 most traded ASX shares of 2025
• Buying ASX shares? Why, and how, you should prepare for higher interest rates in 2026
• The pros and cons of buying CBA shares in 2026
• The best ASX 200 stocks to own in 2026
• Why I’m not selling my CBA shares in 2026

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

I had to make a decision yesterday, about what to write about, here.

I chose New Year’s Resolutions, because I hope they might help even just one or two of our readers get 2026 off to a good start, financially.

The other choice? Marking Warren Buffett’s departure from the corner office at Berkshire Hathaway Inc (NYSE: BRK.A) (NYSE: BRK.B) (I own shares).

He will remain Chairman of the company’s board, but the 95-year old has decided that after six decades in charge, he’ll no longer be the CEO.

And fair enough.

In his characteristically humble way, he recently wrote that he would step down because he wasn’t as sharp as he used to be, and because he believed his anointed successor, Greg Abel, would do a better job.

I hope that if you’ve been reading these notes for any length of time, the name ‘Buffett’ is a familiar one.

But just in case you’re not, Warren Buffett is the investing GOAT – the ‘Greatest Of All Time’.

He ran Berkshire Hathaway for 60 years, turning a struggling New England textile mill into his personal investing canvas – and delivered some astonishing returns for himself and for the company’s shareholders.

How good?

When he took over, Berkshire shares were changing hands for US$19 each.

Now? Well, they finished 2025 at US$754,800.

No. That’s not a typo.

More than three-quarters of a million dollars, each.

And he’s retiring, undefeated.

For sixty years, Buffett compounded the company’s value by around 20% per annum, on average.

That is simply astonishing.

(‘Astonishing’ is a dramatic understatement, of course, but I don’t know what string of superlatives could do a better job than the numbers themselves!).

More than that, though, Buffett spent those 60 years as a teacher. He and his late business partner Charlie Munger freely and happily dispensed their investing wisdom, inviting others to invest the same way.

They didn’t hide their expertise, or pretend there was some black box. Other than questions about what Berkshire was buying or selling, any topic was fair game, and they answered question after question from shareholders at the company’s annual meeting each year, while writing plenty and giving regular media interviews.

Buffett could rightly have lorded his success over everyone. He could have taken a massive cut of the company’s performance as a ‘performance fee’, and no-one would have considered it unreasonable, given his astonishing run.

Instead?

He lives in the same house he bought decades ago. He took a $100,000 salary (only!) and insisted on paying the company back for any and all use of company assets.

Instead of seeking glory and adulation, he is giving 99% of his wealth to charity and wrote his last letter to shareholders about, of all things, kindness.

Oh he’s plenty human. He’s made mistakes, personally and professionally. He would be – he is – the first to mention that.

In his last letter, he wrote:

“One perhaps self-serving observation. I’m happy to say I feel better about the second half of my life than the first. My advice: Don’t beat yourself up over past mistakes – learn at least a little from them and move on. It is never too late to improve. Get the right heroes and copy them.”

And again, perhaps fittingly, his executive career at Berkshire ended not with a bang, but a whimper.

I don’t know what happened in the office at Kiewit Plaza, Omaha, on December 31, but there was no external fanfare, no press release, no grand gestures.

I suspect he just shook some hands, had a Coca-Cola (his drink of choice), and left the building.

On a personal level, I have Buffett and The Motley Fool to thank for my professional trajectory – and my personal investing approach.

I found The Oracle of Omaha through my early reading of The Motley Fool’s then US-only website, and his teachings and example have shaped my investing approach.

Don’t get me wrong: I have no delusions of grandeur. There is only, and will only ever be, one Warren Buffett. But we can learn from his words and actions, and aim to improve our investing, accordingly.

Berkshire will not be the same without Buffett at the executive helm. Nor will the investing world.

He was the man we turned to for reassurance and reminders of the right way to invest when things got tough.

He was the man companies and governments turned to, too, in times of crisis.

He’s not gone yet, of course, but he has said will be “going quiet”.

His record will likely never be eclipsed, and his example will similarly hard to match, in words, deeds and actions.

We have been lucky to be the recipients of his wisdom and public counsel over his time at Berkshire.

And what should investors take away from that immense body of work?

A few things:

– The value of long-term investing. It works.

– The concept of a company’s ‘moat‘: the sustainable competitive advantage that allows it to survive and thrive.

– The idea of having a ‘circle of competence’ – the things that you know that you know.

– How to think about that circle: it’s not the size that counts, it’s knowing where the edges are.

– Thinking independently: being fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when they’re fearful

– Buffett’s popularisation of Ben Graham’s concept of ‘Mr. Market’ – the volatile business partner whose moods you should take advantage of, but whose counsel you should never seek, nor accept.

– The importance of seeing shares as pieces of real businesses, not just digital trading cards.

– The idea of ‘intrinsic value’ – that a company’s shares are worth the value you calculate for them, not just what the market is offering them for on a given day

-The importance of management quality: if they’re smart, hard working but lack integrity, you’re on a hiding to nothing

– ‘The three most important words in investing: Margin of safety’: making sure you allow room for error

… and a whole lot more!

Each of those ideas deserves its own article, of course, but hopefully it’ll be a reminder of how Buffett invests, and gives you some touchstones to take into 2026 and beyond, courtesy of the investing GOAT.

Well done, Uncle Warren. We thank you and salute you.

Fool on!

The post Berkshire without Buffett? It starts now. appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Scott Phillips has positions in Berkshire Hathaway. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Berkshire Hathaway. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Berkshire Hathaway. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) share price is in the spotlight today after the company revealed softer gold sales for the December 2025 quarter and trimmed its full-year production guidance to 1.6–1.7 million ounces.

What did Northern Star Resources report?

• December quarter gold sales: approximately 348,000 ounces
• First half FY26 gold sales: approximately 729,000 ounces
• Revised FY26 gold sales guidance: 1,600,000 – 1,700,000 ounces (previously 1,700,000 – 1,850,000 ounces)
• KCGM December gold sales: ~110,000 ounces, impacted by crusher failure
• Yandal December gold sales: ~91,000 ounces, affected by unplanned downtimes
• Pogo gold sales: ~53,000 ounces due to lower mined grades

What else do investors need to know?

Operational hiccups during the December quarter—including equipment failures and ongoing recovery works—led to lower gold sales across all three production centres. Unplanned maintenance at sites like Jundee, South Kalgoorlie, and Thunderbox affected output by up to 20,000 ounces combined.

Looking ahead, Northern Star plans to transition to an expanded mill at KCGM in early FY27 and continues cost-focused initiatives at Yandal. Gold grades were mixed, but mining activity overall tracked towards annual guidance targets.

What’s next for Northern Star Resources?

Investors can expect more details when Northern Star releases its full December quarter results and revised cost guidance on 22 January 2026. The company is focusing on stabilising operations, completing its plant expansion at KCGM, and recovering output at Jundee and Thunderbox.

The expanded plant at KCGM is on schedule, and the company is working to minimise future operational disruptions. Management will hold an investor call on 5 January 2026 to discuss the outlook in more detail.

Northern Star Resources share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Northern Star Resources shares have risen 73%, outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 6% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post Northern Star Resources trims FY26 gold guidance after soft December quarter appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips. This article was prepared with the assistance of Large Language Model (LLM) tools for the initial summary of the company announcement. Any content assisted by AI is subject to our robust human-in-the-loop quality control framework, involving thorough review, substantial editing, and fact-checking by our experienced writers and editors holding appropriate credentials. The Motley Fool Australia stands behind the work of our editorial team and takes ultimate responsibility for the content published by The Motley Fool Australia.

This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

The coming year is shaping up to be a pivotal one for Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), and it will be a year in which the underlying debate about the future of the electric vehicle (EV) industry will come into intense focus. There are two polemic positions that automakers and investors can take on the debate, but as ever, the reality probably lies somewhere in between.

The good news for Tesla investors is that the company has the opportunity to emerge victorious, regardless of the outcome. 

The great debate over electric vehicles

The crux of the matter was outlined during Tesla’s third earnings call in 2024 when management fielded a question on the timing of a $25,000 “non-robotaxi regular car model.” Musk’s response was to reiterate that “the future is autonomous electric vehicles,” which he then claimed most automakers hadn’t “internalized” yet. He went on to argue that “I think having a regular $25,000 model is pointless” and “It’s fully considered cost per mile is what matters.”

Musk is arguing that the lower cost per mile advantage of EVs becomes apparent when the car is driven. Moreover, if the car driven is an autonomous EV in the form of a robotaxi, then that advantage is even higher. Consequently, the most efficient use of an EV is as a robotaxi.

In terms of cost per mile, you could think of matters as follows: Tesla Cybercab robotaxi > Tesla transformed into robotaxi using autonomous full self driving (FSD) > EVs (including Teslas) > regular internal combustion engine (ICE) car > ICE taxi.

Estimates for the cost per mile fluctuate due to external factors (such as fuel costs), but for a rough idea, Musk has mentioned as low as $0.30 per mile for a Cybercab, compared to an average of over $2 for an ICE taxi.

There are a couple of points to consider in addition to this argument. First, a Tesla with autonomous FSD has the potential to have a lower cost per mile than other EVs because the software can drive it in a more efficient manner.

Second, and this is a crucial point in the ICE world, the ICE taxi is the more expensive option on a cost-per-mile basis, which is a major reason why consumers buy cars. However, in the EV world, a consumer will see a robotaxi as a cheaper option on a cost-per-mile basis.

As such, the advent of robotaxis will usher in a fundamentally different way of thinking about mobility than applied in the ICE era.

Tesla’s robotaxi plan is to build that future, and investors are buying the stock in anticipation of a massive stream of recurring revenue from its robotaxis in the future. That’s why Tesla is aggressively pursuing its robotaxi rollout.

The market needs cheaper electric vehicles

The alternative view has it that the immediate future of the EV industry (the growth area of the auto market) is through the development of low-cost models to reduce the overall cost of ownership. That’s why Ford (whose management, in 2016, promised commercial robotaxis by 2021) is investing $5 billion in a universal EV platform, with the aim of offering a $30,000 electric pickup truck in 2027.

Moreover, Ford and General Motors (an automaker that only ended robotaxi development in 2024) are among many automakers that have scaled back their pre-existing EV plans in response to weaker-than-expected sales in 2025 and significant losses on their EV investments.

They believe they are responding to consumer preferences, and the near future will feature the kind of affordable EVs that Musk thought were “pointless,” as discussed above.

Which side is right?

They are probably both right, at least in the near term.

The costly Cybertruck and Ford’s F-150 Lightning pickup truck have underperformed in sales, while Tesla’s most affordable car, the Model 3, has seen sales growth of nearly 18% through 2025, and GM’s affordable Chevy Equinox has also experienced strong sales growth. At the same time, the pace of robotaxi rollouts, adoption, and regulatory approval is uncertain and slower than most hoped it would be.

However, Tesla and others are making progress on robotaxis, and the long-term case remains intact. It appears to be an issue of timing. 

Why Tesla could win either way

But here’s the thing. Tesla is well-positioned to strategically win in the long term with its robotaxi development, and it’s arguably best positioned to win in the near term if the transition takes longer than expected. Unlike peers like Ford and GM, Tesla’s EV business is profitable, and in fact, it’s already producing lower-cost versions of the Model Y and Model 3 in reaction to market conditions.

It also has the market position and scale to develop lower-cost models. While that’s no guarantee that Tesla will produce one if the robotaxi transition is slow, the company is in a much better position to do so than its peers, and that counts for a lot in the investing world.

This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

The post Here’s why Tesla will win the EV market appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

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Lee Samaha has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Tesla. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended General Motors. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The Nickel Industries Ltd (ASX: NIC) share price is in focus following the announcement of a strategic partnership with Sphere Corp, including a US$2.4 billion valuation for its ENC HPAL project and the first Western offtake agreement for ENC nickel cathode.

What did Nickel Industries report?

• Announced a deal with South Korean-listed Sphere Corp, which will acquire a 10% stake in the ENC HPAL project at a US$2.4 billion valuation.
• Sphere Corp enters an offtake agreement for ENC nickel cathode at market prices, including volumes above its 10% ownership share.
• NIC’s shareholding in ENC remains unchanged at 44% despite the Sphere transaction.
• The funding completion is expected in early Q1 2026.
• ENC is targeting annual production of 72,000 tonnes of nickel metal once commissioned.

What else do investors need to know?

The partnership marks ENC’s first offtake deal into Western markets, specifically targeting the fast-growing aerospace and aeronautical industries. Sphere’s investment is significant, as it is a Tier 1 supplier to global aerospace and space companies—including a 10-year supply contract with SpaceX.

By qualifying ENC nickel cathode through Sphere, Nickel Industries could open up broader opportunities in North American aerospace supply chains. The company highlights that the transaction aligns with its focus on sustainable operations and reducing its carbon emissions profile.

What did Nickel Industries management say?

Nickel Industries Managing Director Justin Werner said:

We are very pleased to announce this transaction with Sphere for the acquisition of a 10% interest in ENC and associated offtake of nickel cathode. The fact that Sphere, as one of the key accredited suppliers to SpaceX, has chosen to invest in ENC demonstrates the quality of the ENC cathode, the traceability of the product and our goal for ENC to be a global showpiece as a bottom cost-quartile, sustainable producer of high-quality nickel.

This transaction marks the first offtake agreement for ENC material into Western markets, and we are particularly pleased that it is into the growing aerospace and aeronautical industries which demands the highest product quality and is forecast to grow by approximately 8% CAGR to 2030.

What’s next for Nickel Industries?

Nickel Industries is progressing towards the commissioning of the ENC HPAL project, which is set to diversify its product offering with nickel cathode, MHP, and cobalt sulphate. Management expects the partnership with Sphere to help position ENC as a key supplier to the aerospace sector and expand its reach into North America.

With ENC anticipated to produce around 72,000 tonnes of nickel per year, the company continues its strategic shift from stainless steel markets to serving the growing electric vehicle battery and aerospace supply chains.

Nickel Industries share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Nickel Industries shares have risen 1%, trailing the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 6% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post Nickel Industries partners with Sphere Corp in landmark ENC deal appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips. This article was prepared with the assistance of Large Language Model (LLM) tools for the initial summary of the company announcement. Any content assisted by AI is subject to our robust human-in-the-loop quality control framework, involving thorough review, substantial editing, and fact-checking by our experienced writers and editors holding appropriate credentials. The Motley Fool Australia stands behind the work of our editorial team and takes ultimate responsibility for the content published by The Motley Fool Australia.

This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

Artificial intelligence (AI) continues to be the biggest driving theme in the market today, and there is little reason to think that this won’t continue. Demand for both AI infrastructure and services appears insatiable, and it still looks as if we’re still in the very early innings of this trend.

Against this backdrop, let’s look at the top two AI stocks to buy right now. 

1. Nvidia

Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) is the king of AI infrastructure, and the company’s recent acquisitions have made it even stronger. It’s best known for its graphics processing units (GPUs), which provide the processing power for the majority of AI workloads. GPUs are particularly dominant in large language model (LLM) training, where the company’s CUDA software platform adds to its wide moat. Nearly all foundational AI code was written on CUDA, and that code only works natively with Nvidia’s chips.

With its recent acquisition of SchedMD, Nvidia has only expanded its software moat. SchedMD is the developer of Slurm, an open-source software platform that helps manage GPUs by determining which tasks they perform and when. With this acquisition, Nvidia now controls the primary orchestration platform for AI chips. While it says it will keep Slurm open-source, its control over the platform will allow it to more tightly integrate it with CUDA to offer an even more seamless experience.

Then, on Christmas Eve, the company acquired top talent from Groq and signed a licensing agreement with the company for its technology. The deal essentially gives Nvidia access to Groq’s language processing units (LPUs), which are specialized chips designed specifically for AI inference. Demand for AI inference processing is eventually expected to become larger than demand for training, so this deal can be viewed as Nvidia playing both offense and defense to get ahead of that shift.

Overall, Nvidia remains the company best positioned to profit from the continued AI buildout, and its recent acquisitions only strengthen its position. The stock is also reasonably valued, trading at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of about 25, based on analysts’ estimates for its fiscal 2027, which will begin in late January 2026.

2. Alphabet

Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) (NASDAQ: GOOG) is arguably the best positioned AI company because it is the only one not reliant on Nvidia.

While other companies are working on designing their own custom AI accelerator chips, Alphabet’s Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) are now in their seventh generation and have been battle-tested by running Google’s workloads for more than a decade. Those years of experience aren’t something that its competitors can easily emulate.

As such, the company enjoys a big structural cost advantage in both AI training (having trained its world-class AI model Gemini) and inference relative to companies that rely largely on Nvidia for chips. Its TPUs have proven so good that Anthropic signed a large deal with Alphabet to deploy TPUs to power its AI workloads. Morgan Stanley estimates that for every 500,000 TPUs that Alphabet rents out, it generates around $13 billion in revenue.

Alphabet’s other advantage over its cloud computing competitors is that it owns a world-class LLM that rivals OpenAI’s ChatGPT. First, this lets it capture more cloud computing revenue by offering its own model. Second, it can monetize its AI model more readily by integrating it into its products, including Google Search, its Android operating systems, YouTube, Google Maps, Gmail, and its workplace productivity tools. With lower costs for training and inference, as well as more platforms upon which it can deploy and monetize its models, Alphabet holds significant advantages over OpenAI and other LLM developers.

As the most vertically integrated AI company, Alphabet is in a strong position, and its advantages should only widen in the coming years. Meanwhile, the stock is attractively valued, trading at a forward P/E of 28. 

This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

The post What are the 2 top artificial intelligence (AI) stocks to buy right now? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

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Geoffrey Seiler has positions in Alphabet. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Alphabet and Nvidia. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Alphabet and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The continuing outperformance of US stocks vs. ASX shares reminds us of the value of considering overseas shares for our portfolios.

As the results below show, geographical diversification can pay off handsomely.

ASX exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have made it easier for Aussie investors to put money into overseas stocks via our local exchange.

If you’re considering investing outside the ASX, start your research here.

Top global broker UBS has revealed its 2026 forecast for three key markets outside the ASX: US, China, and Europe.

Here’s what UBS had to say, plus some examples of ASX ETFs that track these markets and how they performed in 2025.

US stocks

The S&P 500 Index (SP: .INX) rose by 16.39% in 2025 and has risen 82.25% over the past five years.

This compares to a 6.8% lift for the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) last year and a 32.3% increase over five years.

In a recent article, UBS said:

US equities have room to rally further. We expect the S&P 500 to reach 7,300 by June next year and 7,700 by the end of 2026, driven by strong estimated earnings growth of 10% and looser Fed policy.

In addition to the transformative force of AI, we believe the structural trends of electrification and longevity will also drive equity performance for the long term.

Tactically, we believe AI beneficiaries are broadening out both within and beyond tech, and we see opportunities in companies facilitating grid modernization and supply critical raw materials.

In the longevity field, we expect strong growth in the obesity, oncology, and medical device markets.

Example ASX ETF tracking the US stock market: iShares S&P 500 AUD ETF (ASX: IVV)

The IVV ASX seeks to mirror the performance of the S&P 500 after fees, and rose 8.24% in 2025.

China stocks

The SSE Composite Index increased by 18.41% in 2025 and is currently 14.27% higher than where it was five years ago.

SSE stands for Shanghai Stock Exchange. This index is considered the benchmark for mainland China shares.

UBS comments:

China remains Attractive, and we view the correction in tech as an opportunity to add exposure. China’s tech shares have fallen sharply over the past two and a half months, with the Hang Seng TECH index down over 19% since its early October high.

But we expect the sector to recover over time, maintaining our preference on the broader Chinese market as well as its tech sector. In fact, we see reasons to buy the dip in Chinese tech stocks, which remain our highest conviction stock idea across global markets.

With Beijing doubling down on self-sufficiency, ramping up chip manufacturing capabilities, and subsidizing data centers, we expect capex from major tech companies to grow 26% in 2026.

In addition, Chinese internet giants have demonstrated their ability to integrate AI into profitable business models, while domestic liquidity remains a key pillar of support for China’s equity market.

Chinese tech stock valuations are also attractive, and we expect the sector to deliver earnings growth of over 25% per annum over the next two years.

Example ASX ETF tracking the China stock market: VanEck FTSE China A50 ETF (ASX: CETF).

Rising 10.4% in 2025, CETF tracks the FTSE China A50 Index, representing the 50 largest China equities.

There is no ASX ETF tracking the SSE Composite.

European stocks

The MSCI Europe Index lifted 31.95% in 2025 and has gained 43.61% over the past five years.

MSCI Europe covers approximately 85% of stocks listed across Europe’s developed markets.

UBS says:

European equities should benefit from a recovery in growth. Eurozone industrial production in October rose at the fastest pace in five months, and the December flash PMI rounded off the region’s best quarterly performance in two and a half years.

We anticipate that positive macroeconomic momentum in the Eurozone will persist, and we expect corporate profit growth to pick up to 7% in 2026 and 18% in 2027.

Germany’s increased defense and infrastructure spending should boost investment, while improved banking sector health would support business lending.

Europe is also home to some firms that are driving structural trends … Within the region, we particularly like banks, utilities, industrials, technology, and Germany.

Example ASX ETF tracking the European stock market: Vanguard FTSE Europe Shares ETF (ASX: VEQ).

Up 22.4% in 2025, VEQ ETF tracks the FTSE Developed Europe All Cap Index (net dividends reinvested) in Australian dollars, before fees.

There is no ASX ETF tracking the MSCI Europe Index.

The post Keen to invest outside the ASX? UBS reveals 2026 forecast for US, China, and Euro stocks appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has positions in iShares S&P 500 ETF. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended iShares S&P 500 ETF. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended iShares S&P 500 ETF. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Retiring with a $1 million share portfolio might sound ambitious, but from the perspective of a 40-year-old, it is far more achievable than many people realise.

The key ingredients are time, consistency, and a willingness to let compounding work its magic.

Let’s assume you are 40 today, have $10,000 ready to invest, and are prepared to think long term.

Starting with $10,000 at age 40

At 40, your biggest advantage is time. With 25 to 30 years until a typical retirement age, even modest, disciplined investing can snowball into something substantial.

If that initial $10,000 is invested into a diversified ASX share portfolio and earns a long-term average return of 10% per annum, it would grow to around $110,000 after 25 years, even if you never added another dollar. That alone won’t get you to $1 million, but it shows how powerful time can be.

The real magic happens when you combine that growth with regular contributions.

Consistent investing

To turn a $10,000 starting balance into a $1 million ASX share portfolio, ongoing investing in ASX shares is essential. This doesn’t require huge sacrifices, just consistency.

For example, starting with $10,000 and then investing $750 per month would grow into approximately $1 million over 25 years with a 10% average total annual return.

I believe this demonstrates that time in the market is more important than by trying to pick the perfect stock.

But which ASX shares should you buy? Let’s dig deeper into that.

What to invest in

From a 40-year-old’s perspective, the focus should be on growth rather than income. Dividends are a bonus, but the priority is owning high-quality ASX shares and/or exchange traded funds (ETFs) that can compound earnings for decades.

A sensible approach is to build a diversified portfolio that includes leading Australian shares, broad-market ETFs, and some global exposure. This reduces reliance on any single business or sector and helps smooth returns over time.

This might mean quality ASX shares like Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) or ResMed Inc. (ASX: RMD), or ETFs such as the Betashares Nasdaq 100 ETF (ASX: NDQ) and the Vanguard Msci Index International Shares ETF (ASX: VGS).

Reinvesting dividends rather than spending them is also crucial in the accumulation phase. It may feel boring, but it significantly accelerates compounding.

Staying the course

One of the biggest risks to not reaching a $1 million portfolio is not market crashes, but investor behaviour. Over a 20 to 25-year period, there will be recessions, bear markets, and periods where investing feels uncomfortable.

From the perspective of a long-term investor, these moments are not threats but opportunities. Continuing to invest during downturns often leads to better outcomes, as new money is deployed when valuations are lower.

Overall, patience and discipline matter far more than timing the market perfectly.

Foolish takeaway

From age 40, retiring with a $1 million ASX share portfolio is not about luck. It is about starting early enough, investing consistently, and giving compounding the time it needs to work.

The post How to retire with a $1 million ASX share portfolio appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in BetaShares Nasdaq 100 ETF and ResMed. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended BetaShares Nasdaq 100 ETF, Macquarie Group, and ResMed. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended BetaShares Nasdaq 100 ETF, Macquarie Group, and ResMed. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Vanguard Msci Index International Shares ETF. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (ASX: JDO) share price is in focus today after the bank reported its gross loans and advances hit approximately $13.4 billion as of 31 December 2025, showing continued growth during the first half of FY26.

What did Judo Capital report?

• Gross loans and advances (GLAs) reached ~$13.4 billion as at 31 December 2025
• Growth consistent with management’s expectations and guidance
• On track for FY26 GLA guidance of $14.2–$14.7 billion
• Profit before tax guidance for FY26 maintained at $180–$190 million (FY25: $125.6 million)
• Full half-year results (1H26) due 17 February 2026

What else do investors need to know?

Judo continues to focus its growth on relationship-based lending to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which has helped the bank maintain good business momentum and customer engagement. Management noted that monthly loan growth can vary, but the overall pace remains disciplined as Judo targets sustainable economic outcomes.

The update highlights Judo’s confidence in delivering significant operating leverage over the coming year. With the 1H26 results announcement set for mid-February, investors will be keen to see how growth and profitability targets are progressing, especially considering uncertain economic conditions.

What did Judo Capital Holdings management say?

Judo Capital CEO Chris Bayliss said:

We are pleased to have delivered strong loan growth in the first half of FY26, in line with our expectations. Our relationship-led value proposition continues to resonate with SME customers, and we are seeing good momentum across our business.

While our monthly growth can vary, we continue to manage our overall pace of lending growth while also achieving sustainable economics. We remain on track to achieve our existing FY26 GLA guidance of $14.2b to $14.7b.

Judo will demonstrate significant operating leverage in FY26, and we remain on track to achieve our existing guidance for Profit Before Tax of between $180m to $190m, up from $125.6m in FY25.

What’s next for Judo Capital?

Judo is aiming to achieve total loans and advances of $14.2–$14.7 billion in FY26 while also boosting profit before tax to up to $190 million. The bank says it is demonstrating operating leverage, suggesting improved efficiency as the business grows in size.

Investors can look forward to more detail when Judo releases its 1H26 results on 17 February 2026. The company’s progress on these milestones—and how it navigates the SME lending environment—will be key areas to watch in the coming months.

Judo Capital share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Judo Capital shares have declined 7%, trailing the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 6% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post Judo Capital’s loan book tops $13.4bn in FY26 update appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips. This article was prepared with the assistance of Large Language Model (LLM) tools for the initial summary of the company announcement. Any content assisted by AI is subject to our robust human-in-the-loop quality control framework, involving thorough review, substantial editing, and fact-checking by our experienced writers and editors holding appropriate credentials. The Motley Fool Australia stands behind the work of our editorial team and takes ultimate responsibility for the content published by The Motley Fool Australia.

Real estate and property ownership is synonymous with Australian values, both investing and in life. 

However, the harsh reality is that owning real estate still comes with significant barriers for many Aussies. 

First and foremost, the traditional 20% deposit for a home in Australia means you need a seriously full savings account. 

Data shows the median house price in Australia sits at roughly $980,343, according to Cotality data.

That means to comfortably buy the average house, you need almost $200,000 in savings. 

Luckily, investing in the stock market comes with a much lower barrier to entry. 

So for Aussies looking for exposure to the real estate market without the lofty price tag, one option to consider is real estate shares. 

Rather than a physical house or apartment, you can invest in companies that typically own or manage income-producing properties such as shopping centres, offices, industrial warehouses, or residential developments. 

These are called REITs. 

How did real estate stocks perform last year?

ASX real estate stocks performed modestly in 2025. 

The S&P/ASX 200 Real Estate Index (ASX: XRE) rose about 5% last year. 

This was slightly below the ASX 200 benchmark index which rose roughly 6.3%. 

Like any sector, there were individual ASX real estate stocks that rose, while others lost significant ground. 

There are a couple that had down years that may have now fallen into the value range. 

Two in particular that could be worth monitoring in 2026 are DigiCo Infrastructure REIT (ASX: DGT) and Lendlease Group (ASX: LLC). 

Is there value for these real estate stocks?

DigiCo Infrastructure REIT (ASX: DGT) is one of the ASX real estate stocks that fell the furthest in the sector last year. 

The company is a diversified owner, operator and developer of data centres, with a global portfolio. 

Its stock price fell more than 37% last year. 

However, from December 18 it recovered almost 18% following its AGM.

I think this real estate stock could be set to benefit from future AI tailwinds. 

Artificial intelligence – especially large-scale generative models and cloud-based AI services – requires massive amounts of compute power, storage, connectivity, and cooling infrastructure to run efficiently. This infrastructure is largely housed in data centres, which is the main focus of DigiCo. 

Macquarie seems to agree there is upside, with the broker tipping more than 50% upside from last year’s closing price. 

The broker has a $4.16 a share 12-month price target. 

A second real estate stock that could be trading below fair value is Lendlease Group (ASX: LLC). 

Its share price fell more than 16% last year. 

However it ended the year with positive momentum on the back of a major contract win.

Furthermore, it seems poised for future growth with fundamentals turning a corner in FY25. 

TradingView has a 12-month price target of approximately $6.45, which is roughly 24% higher than current levels.

The post Two ASX real estate stocks to watch in 2026 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.