NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) recently posted its Q1 2024 financial results, sending its share price skyrocketing to US$1,064 and its market capitalisation soaring to US$2.6 trillion.

At the current currency exchange rate, this translates to AUD$3.9 trillion. This massive valuation now dwarfs BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP), the world’s largest mining company, with a market value of $226.4 billion at the time of writing.

In other words, Nvidia is now worth more than 17 times BHP. According to investment strategist Lyn Alden, it is also one of the only assets that has outperformed Bitcoin over a 10-year period.

Let’s dive into what’s driving Nvidia’s incredible growth and what might come next for the tech giant.

AI is driving Nvidia shares higher

The artificial intelligence (AI) boom is a key factor behind Nvidia’s meteoric rise. As tech companies globally invest heavily in AI, Nvidia’s GPUs and chips have become essential components, making it a crucial player in the AI revolution. This is akin to selling shovels to miners during a gold rush.

For the quarter ending 31 March 2024, Nvidia last week reported extraordinary financial performance. You can see the company’s staggering growth below:

In what I consider to be shareholder-friendly actions, Nvidia management announced a ten-for-one forward stock split “to make stock ownership more accessible to employees and investors”. It also increased its quarterly dividend by 150% to $0.10 per share.

These results stunned Wall Street as if they’d seen a bear in real life. IG Markets analyst Hebe Chen said there was no doubt that Nvidia’s numbers “moved beyond the financial performance of a single company”.

“From a data standpoint”, Chen said, “today’s results have undoubtedly cleared any remaining doubts in the market about the AI frenzy”, adding this was “a validation of how far the AI stocks’ party can go”.

What’s next for Nvidia shares?

Looking ahead, Nvidia’s management projects $28 billion in revenues for the next quarter, with gross margins of 75%.

Wall Street analysts forecast the company’s annual revenue to hit $120.5 billion, marking a 98% growth from 2023. In the last three months, Nvidia’s full-year revenues have been revised a staggering 41 times, and earnings per share have been revised 38 times.

But with Nvidia shares trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 62, investors are expecting significant future performance.

IG Markets’ Hebe Chen warns these high expectations, set by the recently announced stock split and dividend boosts, “sets a dauntingly high bar for future excitement”.

Foolish takeaway

Nvidia’s share price rise to US$1,064 marks a staggering 22,150% total return over the past 10 years.

A $10,000 investment in the tech player a decade ago would now be worth over $2.2 million. Analysts project strong growth for the company in the next 1–2 years. Beyond that, who knows what’s in store.

The post Nvidia shares are now worth more than 17 times the market cap of BHP. What’s next? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Zach Bristow has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Nvidia. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) share price has risen an impressive 21% in the last six months. After such a strong run, investors may wonder whether the ASX bank share is still a buy. Does it have any more upside?

When a share price rises rapidly, it increases the price/earnings (P/E) ratio and decreases the dividend yield. This ‘worsening’ of the valuation statistics is not appealing, but if the outlook is promising, the bank stock could still justify an investment.  

Let’s look at how the company’s operations have been performing recently.

Earnings recap

In the FY24 first-half result, NAB reported cash earnings of $3.55 billion, down 3.1% compared to the second half of FY23. And compared to the FY23 first-half, cash earnings were down 12.8%.

NAB attributed the profit decline to several factors, including the slowing economy, competitive pressures, and a higher effective cash rate.

Because of competitive pressures, its personal banking segment suffered a significant 29.6% year-over-year decline in cash profit to $553 million.

NAB reported that its ratio of loans at least 90 days past due increased 13 basis points over a 12-month period to 0.79%. This mainly reflected “higher arrears across the Australian home lending and business lending portfolios”. The credit impairment charge for the HY24 period was $363 million.

The result showed a decline in profit, so I wouldn’t say the financials justified a higher NAB share price.

Is the outlook improving?

Six months ago, there were worries about elevated inflation and interest rates and what that may mean for bank loan books. Then, in the first couple of months of 2024, it seemed the inflation picture was improving.

More recently, however, headline inflation has remained stubbornly high. Not only could this mean rates stay at this level for longer, but the latest RBA minutes show the central bank has considered increasing interest rates again.

When NAB announced its HY24 result, it gave this economic outlook:

In Australia, household consumption growth slowed sharply in the second half of 2023, impacted by interest rates and cost of living pressures. This is weighing on real GDP growth which is expected to remain below-trend over the near term.

However, some relief is anticipated later this year with expected tax cuts and a forecast easing in monetary policy from November should inflation continue to moderate. Following 1.5% GDP growth over 2023, growth of 1.7% is forecast over 2024, before improving to around 2.25 % in 2025.

Pressure has eased in the labour market and wage growth is expected to slow from elevated rates in 2023. The unemployment rate is expected to continue to drift higher, peaking at around 4.5% by end 2024, but most indicators of labour demand remain healthy suggesting employment will continue to grow.

There is a mix of positives and negatives, but the economy is performing better than expected.

NAB share price valuation

The broker UBS has forecast that NAB’s cash profit in FY24, FY25 and FY26 will be lower than FY23 profit amid the competitive landscape. UBS predicts NAB could generate $7 billion of net profit in FY24, compared to $7.7 billion of cash earnings in FY23.

Based on the UBS forecast, NAB’s share price is valued at 15x FY24’s estimated earnings.

I think NAB is one of the best ASX bank shares, but its P/E ratio seems stretched, considering the weak profit outlook for the next few years. Rising arrears are a worry for me.

If I were trying to outperform the market, I wouldn’t choose to invest in the ASX bank share at this time. I believe there are better opportunities out there. If NAB shares dropped below $30, that more reasonable valuation could make it more appealing to me.

The post Would I buy NAB shares above $33 right now? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• An ASX dividend giant I’d buy over NAB shares for 2024

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Stock market crashes can cause a lot of pain when they do occasionally occur. When a crash happens, there’s widespread and indiscriminate selling by fearful investors.

While living through a bear market is unsettling, it can also often be the time of the cheapest share prices. Hence, there are both positives and negatives to buying today or waiting for a stock market crash, so let’s consider both strategies.

Wait for a stock market crash

When we look back at previous bear markets like the GFC, the 2020 COVID-19 crash or the inflation worries of 2022 on a chart, there were significant declines of around 30% for many ASX shares, and some dropped more than 50%.

The Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES) share price chart below demonstrates the historical volatility share markets can see. Wesfarmers is the owner of Kmart, Bunnings and several other Aussie businesses.

When we buy shares at a lower price, it means buying them at a lower price/earnings (P/E) ratio and with a higher dividend yield.

The lower the price we can invest at, the bigger the margin of safety we can give ourselves. Buying during a crash can also unlock significant returns if/when that ASX share recovers.

For example, if a business had a $10 share price and dropped 50%, it would fall to a $5 share price. If someone invested at $5 and the share price recovers to $10, that would be a return of 100%.

Sitting on cash, earning interest and investing during a market crash sounds excellent on paper.

However, we don’t have crystal balls—waiting for the bottom of a market crash carries a lot of execution risk. Investors may hesitate and miss the bottom of the crash by investing too late or we could invest too early, missing out on the best prices. There is also a danger of investing in a very beaten-up business that ends up going bust, resulting in a 100% loss.

Invest today

If someone has an investment plan and regularly deploys money into an exchange-traded fund (ETF), like Vanguard MSCI Index International Shares ETF (ASX: VGS), I think the most effective strategy would be to keep investing regularly and ignore what the market is doing.

The ASX share market and global stock market have delivered an average annual return of around 10% over the ultra-long term. That return has been achieved despite the crashes, recessions, politicians, wars, pandemics, and every other negative.

Businesses want to keep growing profits, and this can drive their underlying value higher, even if there is some volatility along the way.

I’m not suggesting we should buy any share at any price. But over the months and years, notable events alter the valuations of different companies and industries. And sometimes, a bargain can be found.

If a stock market crash occurs, I’d want to invest as much as possible to take advantage of those lower prices. But, I’m not waiting for a bear market. I regularly invest in the best ASX share opportunities for my portfolio.

So, for most people, I think the right strategy is to invest sooner rather than wait for an eventual crash.

The post Should I buy ASX shares now, or wait for a stock market crash? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Buy these ASX 200 dividend shares for passive income in June

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Vanguard Msci Index International Shares ETF. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The Lendlease Group (ASX: LLC) share price is charging higher today.

Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) property and infrastructure group closed on Friday trading for $5.89. In morning trade on Monday, shares are swapping hands for $6.41 apiece, up 8.8%.

For some context, the ASX 200 is up 0.6% at this same time.

Here’s what investors are considering today.

Lendlease share price surges amid focus on shareholder returns

The Lendlease share price is leaping higher after the company released a major strategy update.

The property developer is moving to simplify its global business and bring costs under control.

As part of the new strategy, Lendlease will exit its struggling international construction projects and focus on its integrated Australian real estate business with international investment management capabilities.

Lendlease said it intended to complete the transactions already announced and underway and accelerate the capital release from its offshore development projects and assets to recycle $4.5 billion of capital.

Management expects to achieve “significant progress” within the next 12 to 18 months.

The company will prioritise debt reduction and shareholder capital returns.

In line with that, the Lendlease share price is likely catching some tailwinds after management flagged “a phased return” of capital to shareholders with a planned initial $500 million on-market buy-back.

As for debt reduction, Lendlease aims to significantly reduce gearing to within a lowered target range of 5% to 15% by the end of FY 2026, down from the current range of 10% to 20%.

Additionally, the property developer said it would release around $3.42 per share of net tangible assets from a newly established Capital Release Unit (CRU). Most of that is expected by the end of FY 2025.

What did management say?

Commenting on the strategy changes lifting the Lendlease share price today, chairman Michael Ullmer said, “We recognise that our security price performance and securityholder returns have been poor as we have faced structural challenges and a prolonged market downturn.”

Ulmer added, “We have thought very carefully about the necessary strategic refocus and made some tough decisions.”

Lendlease CEO Tony Lombardo said, “Through the decisive actions announced today, a new Lendlease is emerging.”

Lombardo continued:

By reshaping the portfolio, concentrating on our core competencies in markets where we have proven we have the right to play, and the competitive advantage to win, the financial and operational risk profile will be lower, and we believe the quality of our earnings ultimately higher and more sustainable.

Importantly, we do not launch this strategy from a standing start. Significant work has already been undertaken… There is no question that the Australian business of Lendlease is market leading and unique in the breadth and strength of its integrated capability and services…

The establishment of the Capital Release Unit (CRU) is central to our new strategy. The CRU will facilitate the recycling of $4.5 billion in capital of which $2.8 billion is anticipated by the end of FY25. Our priority will be to pay down debt and efficiently return capital to securityholders.

The company maintained its previously announced full-year guidance of a 7% return on equity.

Lendlease share price snapshot

With today’s intraday gains factored in, the Lendlease share price remains down 18% over 12 months.

The post Lendlease share price leaps 9% on plans to bring $4.5 billion back home appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) shares have been on a downward trend over the last year, falling more than 20%, as we can see in the chart below.

After its sizeable decline in the past 12 months, investors may wonder if this is a buying opportunity.

There are some compelling reasons to buy Woodside shares, but also other reasons for avoiding it. Let’s look at both sides of the investment equation.

The positives

A lower Woodside share price means a more appealing valuation, as shown by its lower price/earnings (P/E) ratio. It’s possible Woodside shares could still go cheaper, but the 27% drop from September 2023 is substantial.

Broker UBS has forecast Woodside could make earnings per share (EPS) of $1.23, resulting in a forward P/E ratio of 15. This is materially lower than the valuation when the Woodside share price was still above $38, compared to approximately $28 today.

A cheaper Woodside share price also leads to a larger dividend yield for new investors. UBS suggests the ASX energy share could pay an annual dividend per share of US 98 cents. That translates into a possible grossed-up dividend yield of 7.6%. The dividend return could generate an essential part of the overall shareholder returns in the medium term.

The third positive I’ll point to is the possibility of growing energy demand. Data centres could drive significant demand growth for greener energy, such as hydrogen, which could help the company find customers for its hydrogen projects.

Finally, the Australian Federal Government recently announced that gas would remain part of Australia’s energy plans at least until 2050. The government had this to say:

Reliable gas supply will gradually and inevitably support a shift towards higher-value and non-substitutable gas uses. Households will continue to have a choice over how their energy needs are met.

Australia is, and will remain, a reliable trading partner for energy, including Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) and low emission gases.

Negatives about Woodside shares

An integral negative for me is the company’s profit is closely linked to energy prices, but it has little control over oil or gas prices. It’s a price-taker rather than a price-maker. Price-takers find it challenging to deliver consistently growing profit, so we can often see the Woodside share price bounce around rather than steadily rising over time.

Consequently, UBS thinks EPS could be higher in FY24 than in FY26 and FY28. Forecasts are just educated guesses, of course — energy prices could be weaker or stronger. However, if EPS doesn’t grow much compared to the estimate for FY24, I can’t see the Woodside share price delivering too much in terms of capital growth.

UBS also points out that one of Woodside’s projects, Sangomar, has “complicated” geology. The broker is cautious because the ASX energy share has not provided disclosure on its well performance.

The broker also notes there’s an “increased risk” that the fiscal regime under the Sangomar Production Sharing Contract may be renegotiated to increase the government’s take following Senegal’s change in government.

Foolish takeaway

Now may be an opportune time to examine the business after its recent decline.

However, because of the uncertainty relating to commodity pricing, I don’t think there’s a significant upside for the Woodside share price. I’d rather focus on other ASX shares with a more foreseeable and consistent growth outlook.

The post The pros and cons of buying Woodside shares right now appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The Australian mining stock Sandfire Resources Ltd (ASX: SFR) has excellent investment potential because of its copper exposure, I believe.

Sandfire is one of the largest copper miners on the ASX. Its DeGrussa operations are located 900km northeast of Perth in Western Australia, which is generating “strong cash flows,” according to the company. The ASX copper share also owns the MATSA operations in Spain and the Motheo copper mine in Botswana.

Here are two major reasons why I think Sandfire Resources has a compelling future.

Strong growth potential for the Australian mining stock

The mining company says its MATSA portfolio in Spain offers “exceptional exploration upside”.

While MATSA is already operational, the surrounding exploration tenure — approximately 3,000sq km in size — offers “substantial long-term exploration upside and organic growth potential”, according to Sandfire.

If it can find more copper in Spain, the company can lengthen the life of its mining operations and utilise existing infrastructure. The company can also potentially find copper in other locations.

The outlook for copper itself is another reason to be interested in this Australian mining stock.

Copper is an essential decarbonisation commodity because of its role in global electrification, including expanding the electrical grid, manufacturing renewable energy generation (like wind power), and the significant use of copper in electric vehicles.

According to McKinsey, electrification is projected to increase annual copper demand to 36.6 million metric tons by 2031. The research outfit has forecast a possible pathway to 30.1 million metric tons of annual copper supply, but that suggests a deficit of 6.5 million metric tons (or 20%).

Sandfire Resources is an important global copper player, so the Australian mining stock could benefit from higher copper prices if demand materially outstrips supply in the coming years.

Sandfire Resources share price valuation

The broker UBS, has forecast the ASX copper share can generate earnings per share (EPS) of 47 cents in FY26. This puts the ASX mining share at 20x FY26’s estimated earnings.

With the potential for the copper price to rise in the long term, plus the company’s efforts to grow copper production over time, I think this is a compelling Australian mining stock to consider.

The post 1 Australian mining stock worth a long-term investment appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS) shares have significantly declined over the past year, dropping by 20%.

This means the Telstra share price currently offers a higher level of dividend income because the dividend yield increases when a share price falls.

After the valuation decline for the ASX telco share, let’s examine what income Telstra investors are getting now.

How big is the dividend yield today?

Telstra told investors that solid cash flow conversion and generation supported “flexibility to grow dividends and invest” and that it wanted to maintain “balance sheet strength and flexibility while seeking to grow dividends”.

The last two dividends declared by Telstra amounted to 17.5 cents, delivering a fully franked dividend yield of 5.1% and a grossed-up dividend yield of 7.2%.

But those dividends are history. What could the future payouts be for owners of Telstra shares?

The broker UBS has predicted Telstra could pay a dividend per share of 18 cents per share in FY24 and 19 cents per share in FY25. That translates into forward grossed-up dividend yields of 7.5% and 7.9%, respectively. That’s much more than what you can get from a savings account.

But there’s more to a sound investment than just the dividend yield. Ideally, I’d like to see profit growth over the longer term. Profit generation funds the dividend payments, so bigger profits can enable large payouts. Higher profits can also support a higher Telstra share price.

Are Telstra shares a buy?

Pleasingly, every six months, Telstra typically reports that it has added significant additional subscribers. In the first half of FY24, Telstra revealed that its mobile services in operation (SIO) grew by 4.6%, or 625,000 subscribers. I believe mobile subscriber growth will be the critical driver of underlying profit.

Telstra has already spent the capital on its networks and built the infrastructure. The additional subscribers can help boost revenue and margins.

The company recently acknowledged its enterprise business wasn’t performing and announced job cuts in the division, with up to 2,800 roles to be removed. Most of the cuts are expected to occur by the end of the 2024 calendar year.

With those cuts and other actions, Telstra expects to achieve $350 million of its T25 cost reduction goal by the end of FY25. One-off restructuring costs are expected to be between $200 million and $250 million across FY24 and FY25.

The company has guided that its underlying earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) for FY25 is expected to be between $8.4 billion and $8.7 billion. That would be growth compared to the guidance range for FY24 (which hasn’t finished yet) of between $8.2 billion and $8.3 billion.

At this lower Telstra share price, I think it’s a buy. The underlying profit and dividend are growing, and the lower valuation looks more appealing. According to UBS, the Telstra share price is valued at 19x FY24’s estimated earnings.

The post With a dividend yield over 7%, are Telstra shares a buy for income? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

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Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Telstra Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

There are plenty of quality ASX 200 dividend shares to choose from on the Australian share market.

But which ones could be buys next month?

Three that have been tipped as buy in June are listed below. Here’s why they could be worth a look:

Aurizon Holdings Ltd (ASX: AZJ)

Aurizon could be an ASX 200 dividend share to buy according to analysts. It is Australia’s largest rail freight operator and each year transports more than 250 million tonnes of Australian commodities, connecting miners, primary producers and industry with international and domestic markets.

The team at Ord Minnett thinks income investors should be buying its shares. The broker has an accumulate rating and $4.70 price target on its shares.

As for dividends, Ord Minnett is forecasting partially franked dividends of 17.8 cents per share in FY 2024 and then 24.3 cents per share in FY 2025. Based on the latest Aurizon share price of $3.70, this will mean dividend yields of 4.8% and 6.55%, respectively.

Telstra Corporation Ltd (ASX: TLS)

Another ASX 200 dividend share for income investors to consider buying is Telstra.

Goldman Sachs remains positive on the telco giant despite being disappointed with its recent guidance update.

It notes that the “low risk earnings (and dividend) growth that Telstra is delivering across FY22-25, underpinned through its mobile business, is attractive.” It also believes that the company “has a meaningful medium term opportunity to crystallise value through commencing the process to monetize its InfraCo Fixed assets”.

Goldman expects fully franked dividends of 18 cents per share in FY 2024 and then 18.5 cents per share in FY 2025. Based on the current Telstra share price of $3.45, this equates to yields of 5.2% and 5.35%, respectively.

The broker has a buy rating and $4.25 price target on Telstra’s shares.

Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS)

A final ASX 200 dividend share that could be in the buy zone this month is Woodside Energy. It is one of the globe’s largest energy producers.

The team at Morgans thinks that investors should be taking advantage of recent share price weakness. Especially given the quality of its earnings and strong balance sheet.

In addition, recent share price weakness has boosted the yield on offer with its shares. Morgans is forecasting fully franked dividends of $1.25 per share in FY 2024 and then $1.57 per share in FY 2025. Based on the current Woodside share price of $27.93, this represents dividend yields of 4.5% and 5.6%, respectively.

Morgans has an add rating and $36.00 price target on its shares.

The post Buy these ASX 200 dividend shares for passive income in June appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• With a dividend yield over 7%, are Telstra shares a buy for income?
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday
• Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy next week
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Is the Telstra share price too cheap?

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Woodside Energy Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goldman Sachs Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Telstra Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Aurizon. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.