Trying to predict what the share market will do next month or even next year is a tough game.

But looking a decade ahead is often where long-term investors can gain an edge. Over that timeframe, short-term noise fades away and the quality of the underlying business really starts to matter.

So, if I were building a portfolio with a 10-year mindset, here are three Australian stocks that I think could deliver the goods.

NextDC Ltd (ASX: NXT)

NextDC is well-placed to benefit from several unstoppable trends, including cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and the ongoing digitisation of the economy. As more data is created, stored, and processed, demand for high-quality, secure, and well-connected data centres continues to grow.

What makes NextDC particularly compelling is the long-term nature of its customer contracts and the mission-critical role its infrastructure plays. Once a customer is embedded in a data centre ecosystem, switching is costly and complex.

It is no wonder then that the team at Morgans recently upgraded this Australian stock to a buy rating with a $19.00 price target.

ResMed Inc (ASX: RMD)

Another Australian stock to buy and hold for 10 years is ResMed. It has spent decades building a dominant position in sleep apnoea treatment, and the opportunity ahead remains enormous.

There are an estimated one billion people globally suffering from sleep apnoea, with the vast majority undiagnosed. That gives ResMed a massive, underpenetrated market to keep growing into.

With strong margins, recurring revenue, and a global footprint, ResMed has many of the hallmarks of a long-term compounder that can steadily grow earnings over many years.

The team at Macquarie is bullish on its outlook. It has an outperform rating and $49.20 price target on its shares.

TechnologyOne Ltd (ASX: TNE)

Lastly, TechnologyOne could be an Australian stock to buy and hold. It provides enterprise software to governments, councils, and large organisations, sectors that value reliability over experimentation.

Its transition to a software-as-a-service model has delivered highly recurring revenue, strong cash generation, and excellent customer retention. Once embedded, TechnologyOne’s systems become deeply integrated into customer operations, making them very sticky. Over a 10-year horizon, that kind of predictable, compounding growth can be incredibly powerful.

In fact, management believes it can double in size every five years. So, if it delivers on this, it could triple in size over the next decade.

UBS is a fan and has a buy rating and $38.70 price target on its shares.

The post The Australian stocks I’d trust for the next 10 years appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Nextdc, ResMed, and Technology One. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group, ResMed, and Technology One. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group and ResMed. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Technology One. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

When a dividend-paying business is trading too cheaply, it can result in a very pleasing dividend yield. That’s because the lower the price/earnings (P/E) ratio is, the higher the yield is from an ASX dividend stock.

The business Inghams Group Ltd (ASX: ING) is one of the largest poultry businesses in Australia. It has supply arrangements with major retail, wholesalers and quick service restaurant (QSR) customers. Inghams also produces turkey, stockfeed and value-enhanced poultry products for changing consumer preferences.

As the chart below shows, the Inghams share price has declined more than 30% from May 2025 following challenging operating conditions and lower-than-expected profitability.

Analysts expect the ASX dividend stock’s earnings and dividend to bounce back in the medium-term, which is why this could be a good time to consider the business.

Outlook for earnings and dividend rebound

The business is facing the prospect of reporting a difficult first half of FY26, but things could improve significantly after that.

The projection on CMC Markets suggests Inghams could generate earnings per share (EPS) of 19.7 cents in FY26 and it could pay an annual dividend per share of 13.5 cents. That payout would translate into a grossed-up dividend yield of 7.75%, including franking credits.

But, there could then be a significant improvement in FY27. The projections suggest a potential rise of EPS to 25.8 cents and the dividend payout could increase to 17.3 cents per share.

Therefore, the FY27 payout could translate into a grossed-up dividend yield of close to 10%, including franking credits. That’d be very appealing for dividend investors, if that happens.

What positives are there for the ASX dividend stock?

It was only weeks ago that the business gave an update at its annual general meeting (AGM) which was promising considering how cheaply the business is now trading.

The company is expecting to deliver underlying operating profit (EBITDA) of $80 million in the first half of FY26. For the full 2026 financial year, the company has guided between $215 million to $230 million of underlying operating profit.

Inghams says that earnings guidance is heavily weighted to the second half because of weak trading in the fourth quarter of FY25, with the timing of operational improvements and stabilisation of the inventory position after “corrective actions” in the first half of FY26.

The ASX dividend stock is seeing an “improved revenue outlook” thanks to core poultry volumes being slightly higher than FY25, though the net selling price (NSP) was slightly lower.

Inghams also noted that wholesale profit margins are expected to remain favourable.

While operating costs (excluding feed) are rising due to inflation and identified operational challenges, this has been materially offset by between $60 million to $80 million in annualised savings from labour, procurement and site operations initiatives. Feed costs are expected to continue to provide a modest benefit.

At the current Inghams share price, the ASX dividend stock is valued at under 10x FY27’s estimated earnings.

The post 1 ASX dividend stock down 36% I’d buy right now appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Turning $100,000 into $1 million doesn’t happen overnight. It requires years, often decades, of owning businesses that can compound earnings at high rates while reinvesting intelligently.

That narrows the field dramatically.

For me, the most realistic path isn’t chasing speculative moonshots, but backing high-quality companies with long growth runways, strong competitive advantages, and management teams that consistently execute.

Here are two ASX stocks that I believe fit that description.

HUB24 Ltd (ASX: HUB)

HUB24 has quietly become one of the most powerful compounders on the ASX. Over the past 10 years, its shares have achieved an incredible average total return of 35.85% per year. That would have turned a $10,000 investment in 2015 into more than $200,000 today.

Although it is unlikely to achieve the same feat again through to 2035, I believe it can outperform the broader market.

HUB24 operates a leading wealth platform that sits between financial advisers and their clients’ investments. As more Australians seek professional advice, driven by ageing demographics, superannuation complexity, and intergenerational wealth transfer, the demand for high-quality platforms continues to grow.

What makes HUB24 particularly attractive is its operating leverage. As funds under administration rise, its revenue grows faster than costs, allowing margins to expand over time. That’s exactly the kind of business dynamic long-term investors should look for.

The company has also built a broader ecosystem through complementary technology businesses, deepening adviser relationships and increasing switching costs. Importantly, this growth hasn’t come at the expense of balance sheet strength or discipline.

HUB24 shares are not cheap, but they deserve their premium, in my opinion. If it continues to gain market share and scale efficiently, I think it has the potential to deliver the kind of long-term returns needed to turn a six-figure investment into something even more meaningful.

Pro Medicus Ltd (ASX: PME)

If HUB24 represents compounding through financial infrastructure, Pro Medicus represents compounding through technological superiority.

This ASX stock is a quick-growing provider of enterprise medical imaging software to hospitals and healthcare systems. Its Visage platform is known for speed, scalability, and efficiency, and once installed, it tends to become deeply embedded in hospital workflows.

That leads to exceptionally sticky customers, long-term contracts, and recurring revenue.

What stands out to me is Pro Medicus’ combination of very high margins, strong cash generation, and a long growth runway. Healthcare imaging volumes continue to rise, data sizes are exploding, and hospitals are under pressure to improve efficiency. These are all trends that play directly into Pro Medicus’ strengths.

Like HUB24, Pro Medicus is not a bargain stock. But valuation alone doesn’t create wealth; business quality does. I would rather own a high-quality ASX stock at a fair price than a poor-quality stock at a cheap price. Over time, companies that consistently grow earnings at high rates can justify premium valuations and still deliver outstanding shareholder returns. I expect this to be the case over the coming 10 years and beyond.

The post 2 stocks to help turn $100,000 into $1 million appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has positions in Hub24. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Hub24. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended Pro Medicus. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Hub24 and Pro Medicus. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Financial independence isn’t about chasing the highest dividend yields or finding the next hot stock.

For me, it is about building a portfolio that can reliably pay cash year after year, through good markets and bad, while still growing enough to protect against inflation.

If I were constructing an ASX dividend portfolio with financial independence as the end goal, I would focus on three core principles: reliability, diversification, and sustainability.

The aim wouldn’t be maximum income today, but dependable and growing income over many decades.

The foundation

Every dividend portfolio needs businesses that provide services people simply can’t do without. This is where regulated infrastructure and utilities shine.

I would start with APA Group (ASX: APA). As one of Australia’s largest energy infrastructure owners, it generates stable cash flows from long-term contracts linked to inflation. It may be boring, but it is precisely the kind of dependable income generator that suits a financial independence portfolio.

Transurban Group (ASX: TCL) is another ASX dividend share I would include. It owns critical transport assets with pricing power and decades-long concessions. Traffic volumes have been growing for years and look likely to continue this trend due to population growth and urbanisation.

Defensive income

I would also want exposure to ASX dividend shares that dabble in everyday essentials. After all, these businesses tend to hold up well even when economic conditions deteriorate.

Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW) fits that bill nicely. Supermarkets generate consistent cash flow, and Woolies has a long history of paying dividends. And while its dividend yield isn’t always the highest, the reliability of its earnings and payouts is what matters when building income you can depend on.

Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS) would also earn a place in my portfolio. Australia’s largest telco benefits from recurring revenue, strong market share, and rising data demand. Another positive is that its dividend profile has improved significantly in recent years after it simplified its business and cut costs.

Diversification

Finally, I would add a diversified ASX ETF to smooth out risk and reduce reliance on individual stocks.

The Vanguard Australian Shares High Yield ETF (ASX: VHY) would be my pick. It provides exposure to a broad basket of dividend-paying Australian shares, helping to spread risk while delivering attractive income.

Combined with the individual ASX dividend shares, I think this would help build a strong portfolio that could allow me achieve financial independence over the long term.

The post The ASX dividend portfolio I’d build for financial independence appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Woolworths Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Transurban Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Apa Group, Telstra Group, Transurban Group, and Woolworths Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Vanguard Australian Shares High Yield ETF. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

It was a down year for many ASX energy shares in 2025. 

The S&P/ASX 200 Energy (ASX:XEJ) index fell approximately 4.3% this calendar year. 

For context, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) rose roughly 6.3% in the same period. 

However there were some winners amongst the large ASX energy shares. 

Here are three that rose above the rest in 2025. 

Paladin Energy Ltd (ASX: PDN)

Paladin Energy is a uranium production company that focuses on developing and operating uranium mines globally.

It has rocketed 135% higher since 52 week lows in April and now sits approximately 18% higher than the start of the year. 

Paladin’s revenue and share performance have been closely linked to higher global uranium prices, which are driven by strong demand for nuclear energy and tightening supply conditions.

The company’s flagship Langer Heinrich Mine in Namibia has increased production significantly, with quarterly reports showing large year-on-year gains.

Recent guidance from Macquarie suggests there is still upside for these ASX energy shares. 

In November, Macquarie placed a price target of $11.10 on Paladin Energy shares. 

This indicates a further upside of more than 18% from current levels. 

Whitehaven Coal Ltd (ASX: WHC)

Another ASX energy stock that outperformed the broader sector was Whitehaven Coal. 

The company is an Australia-based coal miner that exports high-quality thermal coal (primarily used to generate electricity) and metallurgical coal (primarily used for steel making) from Australia to Asia.

It has risen an impressive 24% this year and 79% since yearly lows in April. 

This rise has been driven by steady production and strong global coal prices. 

These ASX mining shares closed trading yesterday at $7.80. Based on recent price targets from brokers, it appears it is now trading close to fair value. 

Ampol Ltd (ASX: ALD)

Another ASX energy stock that has performed well this year is Ampol.

It is the largest, and only Australian-listed, petroleum refiner and distributor in the country, with around 2,000 branded Ampol service stations across all states and territories.

Its share price has risen approximately 11.8% this year. 

This has been driven by key acquisitions and the execution of bold strategic moves.

Analyst ratings from TradingView indicate there could be more upside. 

Based on an average rating from 10 analysts, TradingView has a one year price target of $35.02.

This indicates a 9.7% upside from yesterday’s closing price. 

The post The ASX energy shares that surged ahead of the rest this year appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Looking ahead in 2026, I think the best investment opportunities on the ASX could come from a mix of proven compounders, long-term growth stories, and businesses that have already shown they can execute through different market conditions.

Rather than chasing what’s hot, I would focus on ASX shares with large addressable markets, strong competitive advantages, and management teams that have a track record of delivering.

With that in mind, here are 10 ASX shares that I would buy in 2026:

Life360 Inc. (ASX: 360)

Life360 is building a global consumer platform around family safety and location sharing. With 91 million monthly active users and growing subscription penetration, it has a long runway for monetisation as it scales internationally.

CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL)

CSL remains one of Australia’s highest-quality global businesses. Despite recent share price weakness, its leadership in plasma therapies gives it exposure to powerful long-term healthcare demand. After a disappointing time in 2025, I think this biotech could rebound strongly in 2026.

DroneShield Ltd (ASX: DRO)

DroneShield operates in a niche that is only becoming more important. Counter-drone technology is now a priority for defence and security agencies worldwide, and DroneShield is emerging as a key specialist provider. With defence budgets increasing materially, it looks well-placed to benefit.

Goodman Group (ASX: GMG)

Goodman offers a blend of stability and growth. Its global logistics and data centre assets sit at the heart of e-commerce, cloud computing, and artificial intelligence infrastructure. I think it represents one of the best buy and hold options on the Australian share market.

Lovisa Holdings Ltd (ASX: LOV)

Lovisa has quietly become one of the ASX’s best retail growth stories. Its fast-fashion jewellery model continues to scale globally, supported by disciplined store rollouts and strong unit economics. It may have over 1,000 stores globally, but its expansion is far from over.

ResMed Inc. (ASX: RMD)

ResMed addresses a massive and underpenetrated market in sleep apnoea and respiratory care. With ongoing innovation in connected devices and software, it remains well positioned for long-term growth. Especially given the estimated 1 billion sufferers of sleep apnoea globally.

Telix Pharmaceuticals Ltd (ASX: TLX)

Telix is transitioning from a development-stage biotech to a commercial radiopharmaceutical company. While this hasn’t been a smooth ride, its growing portfolio of imaging and therapeutic products gives it multiple shots at long-term value creation.

TechnologyOne Ltd (ASX: TNE)

TechnologyOne is a classic ASX share compounder. Its move to a software-as-a-service model has driven recurring revenue growth, high margins, and strong customer retention across government and enterprise clients. Management believes it can double in size every five years.

WiseTech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC)

WiseTech dominates global logistics software. Its CargoWise platform remains deeply embedded in customers’ operations, supporting a long growth runway as global trade digitises. Its shares were hammered in 2025, potentially setting the stage for a big rebound in 2026.

Xero Ltd (ASX: XRO)

Finally, Xero continues to build a powerful ecosystem for small businesses worldwide. With 4.6 million subscribers and expanding services beyond accounting, it still has significant scope to deepen relationships and lift lifetime value. Especially with a total addressable market estimated to be 100 million small to medium sized businesses.

The post 10 ASX shares I would buy in 2026 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in CSL, Goodman Group, Life360, Lovisa, ResMed, Technology One, WiseTech Global, and Xero. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL, DroneShield, Goodman Group, Life360, Lovisa, ResMed, Technology One, Telix Pharmaceuticals, WiseTech Global, and Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Life360, ResMed, WiseTech Global, and Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL, Goodman Group, Lovisa, Technology One, and Telix Pharmaceuticals. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Online trading platform provider, Stake has revealed the top six most traded ASX shares by its retail clients in calendar year 2025.

All six are in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO), with the No. 1 stock ascending into the benchmark index in September.

Let’s take a look.

Most traded ASX shares of the year

1. DroneShield Ltd (ASX: DRO)

ASX defence share Droneshield is benefitting from rising global defence spending amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.

The Droneshield share price is up 316% in the year-to-date (YTD).

According to Stake’s 2025 Retail Investor Report Card:

DroneShield spent 2025 swinging between euphoria and fear.

After rallying to fresh highs mid-year on the back of booming global demand for counter-drone technology, the stock unwound much of those gains as short interest climbed and investors questioned valuation froth.

Sentiment soured in November when CEO Oleg Vornik sold more than $49M of shares. In the same month, the company withdrew recent U.S. military deal announcements and its U.S. CEO Matt McCrann resigned.

DRO’s share price fell over 70% from its October high to December. 

2. PLS Group (ASX: PLS)

Formerly known as Pilbara Minerals, PLS Group is the market’s largest pure-play ASX lithium share.

PLS Group shares are up 89% YTD.

Stake analysts summed up PLS Group’s performance in 2025:

After spending much of the year battling the same headwinds facing the broader lithium sector, Pilbara Minerals closed 2025 on a bullish note.

Between June and December the stock price surged over 200% as lithium market sentiment improved and EV demand lifted.

Industry-wide production cuts also helped stabilise lithium prices by mid-2025, setting the stage for a rebound.

As of December, the PLS share price is up over 80% since the start of the year. It’s a welcome end to a tough stretch that began in late 2023.

3. Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA)

CBA remains the largest company on the ASX by market capitalisation despite a 12.7% fall in the second half of CY25.

The CBA share price is up 5% overall in the year to date.

The ASX bank stock hit an all-time high of $192 in late June before tumbling in the second half.

According to Stake’s 2025 Retail Investor Report Card:

Australia’s biggest bank ended the year flat, despite a June surge that pushed the stock more than 30% higher.

CBA stock stumbled in November after earnings results missed expectations, with the bank blaming growing competition, higher technology costs and lower interest rates on shrinking margins.

Despite challenges, CBA lifted its total paid dividend in 2025 to $4.85.

4. BHP Group (ASX: BHP)

The market’s largest ASX iron ore share hit a 52-week high of $46.03 per share this month.

BHP, which is also now the world’s largest copper producer, has seen its share price increase 12.8% YTD.

Stake analysts said:

BHP had a stop-start year as softer iron-ore and coal prices weighed on earnings, dragging underlying profit down 26% to June 2025.

The miner grabbed headlines with takeover talks involving mining company Anglo American before ultimately walking away, reassuring investors the company would stick to its organic growth strategy.

Strength in copper, a metal central to the global electrification push, along with bolstered iron ore prices, helped offset some of the weakness.

By year-end, BHP’s share price was recovering alongside improving commodity sentiment.

5. Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG)

The market’s second largest ASX mining share is up 17% in the YTD.

Stake analysts commented:

Fortescue moved in near lockstep with the iron-ore market in 2025, dipping early in the year before recovering on revived steel demand out of China.

Investors continued to grapple with the company’s transition away from its green-energy ambitions after a series of executive departures in late 2024.

Still, impressive earnings results and the prospect of another sizable dividend helped support the stock, and FMG finished the year in better shape than where it started.

In 2025, it paid an annual dividend of $1.10.

6. CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL)

CSL remains the largest ASX healthcare share by market cap despite a 39% plunge in CY25.

According to Stake’s report:

It was a bruising year for CSL shareholders.

Despite posting higher underlying profit, investors recoiled at plans to spin out its vaccine arm and cut more than 3,000 jobs globally.

Concerns over the restructuring weighed heavily on the stock, which slid more than 30% across the year.

CSL argued the overhaul would sharpen its focus on high-growth plasma therapies, but the market remained cautious.

Shares only faced further pressure after the firm downgraded FY26 revenue and profit guidance in late October.

The post 6 most traded ASX shares of 2025 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has positions in BHP Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL and DroneShield. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group and CSL. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

For Australians aspiring to become a millionaire, there are a number of ASX share investments that could help make it a lot easier.

ASX growth shares are certainly one attractive option. But, it’s good to have one investment, or central investments, that look likely to perform well and can provide investors with adequate diversification as a core part of an investment strategy.

Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are very useful investment vehicles because they can give investors exposure to different asset exposures. I think the Vanguard MSCI Index International Shares ETF (ASX: VGS) is one of the most effective choices Aussies can make if they want to become a millionaire with a simple investment strategy.

Fantastic investment exposure

The Vanguard MSCI Index International Shares ETF gives investors incredible diversification because it’s invested in the global share market.

Owning shares in 10 or 20 different businesses is a solid amount of diversification. The VGS ETF is invested in close to 1,300 businesses from across the world. Based on that, it could easily work as the only investment in someone’s portfolio, though I’d advocate for other holdings too.

The businesses in the portfolio are not just listed in one country, such as the ASX. Companies come from various markets including the US, Japan, Canada, the UK, France, Germany, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Sweden, Spain, Italy, Hong Kong, Denmark and Singapore.

This fund would be a very effective choice as a one-size-fits-all idea for Australians who are very concentrated on the ASX but want exposure to the global economy.

Pleasingly, the fund has investments across a number of sectors. At the end of November 2025, there were five sectors with a weighting of around 10% or more – information technology (27.7%), financials (16.1%), industrials (11%), consumer discretionary (10.1%) and healthcare (9.9%).

It’s such an effective choice for investors who want to invest in great businesses but do very little ongoing work analysing companies or deciding on which countries/sectors to gain exposure to.

Why this global share-focused fund can help people become millionaires

Diversification for the sake of it doesn’t necessarily bring wealth quicker, though it can help avoid risks and pitfalls.

Thankfully, the VGS ETF is invested in many of the world’s strongest businesses, which is helping the fund itself deliver good returns over time.

Since the Vanguard MSCI Index International Shares ETF’s creation in November 2014, it has returned an average of 13.8% per year. This is thanks to its exposure to names like Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and Broadcom, as well as plenty of other impressive performers such as Intuitive Surgical.

I’m optimistic the fund can continue to deliver good returns because its portfolio has a return on equity (ROE) ratio of 19.6%. That implies to me that the businesses could collectively deliver good returns on future retained profits.

If someone were to invest $1,500 per month and it returned an average of 13.8% per year it would turn into $1 million in 20 years. That sounds fantastic to me. If a 30-year-old started on that journey, they could have a $1 million portfolio by the time they’re 50!

The post Why this could be the easiest way to become a millionaire with shares on the ASX appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended Broadcom and has recommended the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Vanguard Msci Index International Shares ETF. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE) share price has had a brutal year.

Once trading above $11, the stock is now changing hands around $5.20. That puts it down roughly 54% in 2025, making it one of the worst performers in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO).

For a company behind some of the world’s best-known wine brands, including Penfolds, that kind of fall is hard to ignore.

So, let’s take a closer look and see whether the market has gone too far and if a recovery could be on the cards in 2026.

What went wrong?

Several challenges have come together this year, putting pressure on both the business and the share price.

In October, Treasury Wine withdrew its full-year earnings guidance after sales came in weaker than expected in China and distribution issues emerged in the US. The company also paused its share buyback. Without clear earnings guidance, investor confidence weakened and the share price fell about 14%.

Soon after, the company announced a large non-cash write-down of around $687 million on its US assets. This reflected weaker demand and lower long-term growth expectations in America’s wine market. Management also pointed to challenges integrating past acquisitions, including Frank Family and DAOU.

More recently, Treasury Wine said trading conditions across the global wine category have softened in its two biggest export markets, China and the US. Distributor inventory levels remain higher than ideal, which has weighed on near-term demand. In China, parallel imports have added further pressure, particularly across parts of the premium Penfolds range, making it harder for prices to hold up.

Why a recovery might be brewing

Treasury Wine is not a small or struggling business. It is one of the world’s largest wine companies, with brands ranging from everyday labels through to high-end wines. While demand has softened in the short term, premium wines, particularly Penfolds, have continued to hold up better than lower-priced products in some markets.

The company has also launched a program called TWE Ascent, which is focused on cutting costs, improving efficiency, and sharpening the mix of brands it sells. Management expects this to deliver meaningful savings over time and help lift profitability as conditions improve.

A change in leadership could also play a role. Sam Fischer, who previously held senior roles at Lion and Diageo, took over as CEO during a difficult period.

And there has also been renewed interest from large investors. French billionaire Olivier Goudet recently bought a 5% stake in Treasury Wine. Given his background in consumer brands and wine, his investment suggests he sees value at current prices and believes the business can recover.

Is it a ‘buy’ for 2026?

At current prices, the market appears to be assuming Treasury Wine’s earnings will stay below past levels for a while. However, if conditions begin to improve, with stronger growth returning in China and US operations settling, its shares could lift quickly.

The share price looks weak today, but that low starting point supports the recovery case for 2026. If management can improve inventory levels, cut costs and make better use of its global brands, this heavily sold-off stock could surprise on the upside as confidence returns.

There are still risks and a turnaround is not guaranteed. Even so, Treasury Wine’s well-known global brands give it a stronger base than many struggling companies. If trading conditions stabilise, the share price could regain interest among investors.

The post Down over 50%, is this the ASX 200’s greatest recovery share for 2026? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Treasury Wine Estates. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Treasury Wine Estates. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Vanguard is the ASX ETF provider with the most funds under management.

Many Vanguard funds make up important parts of investors’ portfolios. In fact, the two largest ASX ETFs by market capitalisation are Vanguard funds. 

As today marks the last day of trading for 2025, here are the Vanguard ASX ETFs that brought the best returns this year. 

Vanguard Ftse Europe Shares ETF (ASX: VEQ)

As the name suggests, this fund offers exposure to companies in major European markets. 

It aims to track the return of the FTSE Developed Europe All Cap Index. 

This includes more than 1,200 holdings (mainly large-cap) from approximately 16 countries

Its largest geographical exposure is to: 

• United Kingdom (23.2%)
• France (14.4%)
• Switzerland (14.1%)
• Germany (13.8%)

No individual holding makes up more than 3% of the fund. 

In 2025, diversification into the European market proved a great decision for investors. 

This ASX ETF rose by approximately 23% this calendar year. 

Vanguard FTSE Asia ex Japan Shares Index ETF (ASX: VAE)

Finishing the year in second place was the Vanguard FTSE Asia ex Japan Shares Index ETF. 

This fund provides investors exposure to securities listed in Asia excluding Japan, Australia and New Zealand.

It tracks the return of the FTSE Asia Pacific ex Japan, Australia and New Zealand Index. 

At the time of writing, it is made up of more than 1,700 holdings, with its largest exposure being an 11.5% holding in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd. 

Roughly half of the fund is weighted towards companies in China and Taiwan. 

Investors who held this fund through the year enjoyed a rise of approximately 20%. 

Vanguard International Equity Index Funds – Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF (ASX: VEU)

In third place was the Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF. 

The ETF provides exposure to many of the world’s largest companies listed in major developed and emerging countries outside the US.

It seeks to track the return of the FTSE All-World ex US Index. 

At the time of writing, it is made up of more than 3,800 holdings. 

Its largest exposure geographically is towards: 

• Japan (15.3%)
• China (9.9%)
• United Kingdom (8.9%)

This fund could be ideal for an investor looking to diversify away from a US heavy portfolio. 

This strategy was worthwhile in 2025, as this fund rose approximately 19%. 

The post The best performing Vanguard ASX ETFs of 2025 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Vanguard International Equity Index Funds – Vanguard Ftse All-World ex-US ETF. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.