The Vicinity Centres Ltd (ASX: VCX) share price is in focus after the company announced Chairman Trevor Gerber will retire at the 2026 AGM, with Patrick Allaway to succeed as Chairman-elect effective 15 June 2026.

What did Vicinity Centres report?

• Chairman Trevor Gerber to retire after eleven years of service, effective 28 October 2026 AGM
• Patrick Allaway appointed as Non-executive Director and Chairman-elect from 15 June 2026
• Gerber led the company through a multi-year investment and repositioning strategy
• No financial or dividend updates were included in this announcement

What else do investors need to know?

Vicinity Centres highlighted the significant contribution of Trevor Gerber, noting his leadership through the COVID-19 pandemic and during a period of strategic refocus toward premium retail assets. The company credits Gerber for leaving the business well-positioned, with a clear strategy and robust financial footing.

Patrick Allaway joins the board with over 30 years’ experience across financial and capital markets, and a strong background in corporate advisory. He brings industry expertise from previous roles at major listed businesses such as Bank of Queensland Ltd (ASX: BOQ) and Nine Entertainment Co. Holdings Ltd (ASX: NEC)

What’s next for Vicinity Centres?

Following this leadership transition, the company says it will continue its focus on delivering sustained income and value growth through its premium retail asset strategy. Incoming Chairman Patrick Allaway highlighted his intention to work closely with the board and executive team to build on current momentum and further position Vicinity as a leader in the sector.

The brokerage’s forward focus appears to be on maintaining asset quality, disciplined management, and continuing to create value for securityholders as the new chairperson takes over.

Vicinity Centres share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Vicinity Centres shares have risen 2%, slightly trailing the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 3% over the same period.

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The post Vicinity Centres: Chairman Trevor Gerber announces 2026 retirement appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Nine Entertainment. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips. This article was prepared with the assistance of Large Language Model (LLM) tools for the initial summary of the company announcement. Any content assisted by AI is subject to our robust human-in-the-loop quality control framework, involving thorough review, substantial editing, and fact-checking by our experienced writers and editors holding appropriate credentials. The Motley Fool Australia stands behind the work of our editorial team and takes ultimate responsibility for the content published by The Motley Fool Australia.

The S&P/ASX 300 Index (ASX: XKO) share Tuas Ltd (ASX: TUA) has suffered a big, painful fall this year. The ASX telco share has dropped by around 63%, as the chart below shows.

Tuas is one of the holdings inside the WAM Capital Ltd (ASX: WAM) portfolio – Wilson Asset Management is a fund manager backing the business.

WAM Capital is one of the largest listed investment companies (LICs) on the ASX, with a market capitalisation not far from $2 billion. It aims to invest in the most compelling undervalued growth opportunities in the Australian share market.

Let’s look at why the ASX 300 share is so compelling.

What happened to the ASX 300 share?

The Wilson Asset Management team described Tuas as a telecommunications company that owns and operates the SIMBA mobile network in Singapore.

WAM noted that the Tuas share price has declined significantly on the back of an update from the Singaporean telecommunications regulator Infocomm Media Development Authority (IMDA), which halted its review of Tuas’ proposed acquisition of M1 Limited.

That proposed acquisition did not proceed before the 21 May 2026 deadline because of revelations that Tuas’ subsidiary, Simba, may have been using radio frequency bands that it was not authorised to use.

WAM noted that Simba is cooperating with the regulator’s investigation and continues to operate its network in Singapore.

Why are Tuas shares an opportunity?

The investment team said that while the news is disappointing, WAM has “strong conviction” in the underlying business which has “outperformed significantly” since the acquisition announcement last year.

WAM believes the ASX 300 share can continue to grow strongly, supported by differentiated products in both the mobile and fixed line space of the Singapoean telco market.

The company’s latest update showed significant growth by the business.

In the first half of FY26, Tuas reported revenue growth of 26% to S$91.9 million, with underlying operating profit (EBITDA) jumped 27% to S$42.1 million. Tuas said the faster EBITDA growth reflected “strong operational leverage”. Pleasingly, the underlying EBITDA margin improved to 46%, up from 45% in the first half of FY25.

The revenue growth was largely driven by expansion in both mobile and broadband users. Mobile users rose 21.7% to 1.4 million and the relatively new broadband division saw subscriber growth of around 32,000 to 46,000.

It’s important to remember that the business generated S$18.7 million of underlying net profit and S$50.1 million of operating cash flow in the first half of FY26. If it can grow earnings from here, it can justify a higher valuation.

Plus, it now has a large amount of cash to use for growth. With the M1 deal not going ahead, it could use that money to expand into other markets.

Tuas is certainly a higher-risk investment with the company under regulatory attention, so there may be other ASX shares that may have an easier path to growth.

The post This ASX 300 share is down 63% in 2026: Experts think it’s a buy! appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Why ASX, CBA, Endeavour, and Tuas shares are falling today

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has positions in Tuas. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The Vault Minerals Ltd (ASX: VAU) share price is in focus after the company reported a 44% jump in first-half FY26 EBITDA to $384.5 million and declared its inaugural interim dividend of 7 cents per share.

What did Vault Minerals report?

• Revenue rose 20% to $817.3 million for H1 FY26
• EBITDA up 44% to $384.5 million, with a 47% margin
• Statutory NPAT recorded a loss of $35.2 million (down from $119.3 million profit in H1 FY25)
• Gold sales fell by 15% to 169,274 ounces
• Operating cash flow up 20% to $284.8 million
• Interim dividend declared at 7 cents per share, totalling $73 million

What else do investors need to know?

Vault Minerals finished the half with a strong balance sheet—$537.3 million in cash and bullion and no debt—after significant investment in growth projects. The period saw elevated capex, largely for the King of the Hills (KoTH) plant expansion, which is tracking ahead of schedule for September 2026 commissioning.

Production in the year to date reached 306,542 ounces across Leonora, Mount Monger, and Deflector, with full-year guidance set at 332,000 to 360,000 ounces. The company has also initiated a share buyback program ($33 million deployed) and closed legacy gold hedges, giving more exposure to spot prices from H2 FY26.

On the corporate front, Vault agreed to merge with Regis Resources Ltd (ASX: RRL) under a scheme of arrangement, creating a top-tier Australian gold producer with over 700,000 ounces annual output, pending shareholder and court approvals in the second half of 2026.

What’s next for Vault Minerals?

Looking ahead, Vault expects to ramp up production as major projects like the KoTH plant upgrade and Spanish Galleon underground access come online. Capital spending is set to step down in FY27, positioning the company for improved margins.

Management noted further organic growth options across the portfolio. Restart of the Sugar Zone mine is expected during FY27, and regulatory milestones for tailings and approvals are progressing on track.

Vault Minerals share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Vault Minerals shares have risen 45%, outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 3% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post Vault Minerals lifts earnings, initiates dividend, and announces merger with Regis appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips. This article was prepared with the assistance of Large Language Model (LLM) tools for the initial summary of the company announcement. Any content assisted by AI is subject to our robust human-in-the-loop quality control framework, involving thorough review, substantial editing, and fact-checking by our experienced writers and editors holding appropriate credentials. The Motley Fool Australia stands behind the work of our editorial team and takes ultimate responsibility for the content published by The Motley Fool Australia.

The ASX Ltd (ASX: ASX) share price is in focus today after the company announced it will pay a $20.5 million penalty and contribute $3 million to ASIC’s legal costs, settling longstanding legal proceedings related to its previous CHESS project.

What did ASX report?

• Settled ASIC civil proceedings relating to past statements about the previous CHESS project
• Admitted to contravening provisions of the ASIC Act over “progressing well” claims
• Agreed to pay $20.5 million penalty (subject to Federal Court approval)
• Will also contribute $3 million to ASIC’s legal costs
• Penalty and costs to be provisioned as significant items in FY26

What else do investors need to know?

ASX’s decision to resolve the ASIC proceedings means both parties will not proceed to trial. The penalty and legal costs—together totalling $23.5 million—will be recognised as one-off, non-recurring items in financial year 2026.

The Federal Court will still need to formally approve the proposed settlement, which could occur as late as financial year 2027. ASX says its Board made this decision to help restore confidence and focus on ongoing strategic initiatives.

What did ASX management say?

ASX Chair David Clarke said:

The market must have confidence in what ASX says about its operations as these statements can be relied upon to make decisions. When we stopped the CHESS project in November 2022 to reassess our whole approach, that tested market confidence in ASX and called into question the nature of statements previously made.

As the market operator and a steward of critical market infrastructure, our words matter. I am sorry ASX fell short. We recognise the impact this has on trust and confidence, and we take responsibility for the lessons that must be learned from that experience.

The CHESS project is now on firmer footing, and our decision to settle this matter reflects the desire by the Board to focus ASX on building for the future while maintaining the work still required to build confidence and deliver for the market. We will continue the reset across the Group, informed by the findings of the ASIC Inquiry report delivered earlier this year.

What’s next for ASX?

ASX Limited says it’s moving ahead with its technology refresh, noting that Release 1 of the new CHESS system went live recently, providing modernised clearing services and processing increased trading volumes smoothly. Management describes CHESS as a critical priority and is directing significant investment towards this technology upgrade.

The company continues to roll out its CHESS Partnership Program, which supports key stakeholders with up to $70 million in financial distributions during the extended timeline for the new CHESS project.

View Original Announcement

The post ASX settles ASIC lawsuit, updates on CHESS project and penalty appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips. This article was prepared with the assistance of Large Language Model (LLM) tools for the initial summary of the company announcement. Any content assisted by AI is subject to our robust human-in-the-loop quality control framework, involving thorough review, substantial editing, and fact-checking by our experienced writers and editors holding appropriate credentials. The Motley Fool Australia stands behind the work of our editorial team and takes ultimate responsibility for the content published by The Motley Fool Australia.

S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) shares have risen by less than 1% in the calendar year to date (YTD). 

Let’s start the new week with some fresh ratings on three ASX 200 shares.

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP)

BHP shares finished last week at $62.93 apiece, up 38% YTD. 

Elio D’Amato from EnviroInvest has a hold rating on this ASX 200 mining share. 

D’Amato said (courtesy The Bull): 

This diversified miner produces iron ore, copper and other commodities critical to global economic growth. It remains a core holding in many portfolios due to its scale, balance sheet strength and ability to generate significant cash flow through commodity cycles.

However, in my view, recent news reports highlighting delays to decarbonisation initiatives and a reduced emphasis on environmental objectives are disappointing.

Copper and potash projects still provide exposure to the energy transition, but the environmental investment case is less compelling than it was several years ago.

Nine Entertainment Co Holdings Ltd (ASX: NEC)

The Nine Entertainment share price closed at 91 cents on Friday, down 18% YTD.

Andrew Wielandt from DP Wealth Advisory has a sell rating on this ASX 200 communications share. 

Wielandt commented: 

This TV, newspaper publishing and streaming company has restructured its asset portfolio. It completed the sale of Nine Radio on April 30 and acquired QMS Media on March 31.

The prospect of higher interest rates in a slowing economy present challenges, making it difficult to identify sufficient catalysts for meaningful growth.

In our view, there remains a structural shift away from free-to-air television towards streaming services and video on demand, but this in only partially addressed through NEC’s 9Now and Stan platforms in a fiercely competitive environment.

Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES)

The Wesfarmers share price closed at $86.47 on Friday, up 5.8% YTD.

Andrew Wielandt from DP Wealth Advisory has a hold rating on this ASX 200 consumer discretionary share. 

Wielandt said: 

The company’s operations span across a diversified industrial portfolio, including retail, fertilisers, chemicals and more recently healthcare. However, the market is cautious about a slowing domestic economy under pressure from rising interest rates.

A proposed change in taxation treatment for capital gains may slow the property market.

Wesfarmers is one of the biggest employers in Australia, so a minimum 4.75 per cent wage increase for employees from July 1, 2026 may also weigh on the minds of investors.

The post Buy, hold, sell: Nine Entertainment, Wesfarmers, BHP shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has positions in BHP Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group, Nine Entertainment, and Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

If you are interested in adding a blue-chip ASX 200 stock to your portfolio, then it could be worth considering Seek Ltd (ASX: SEK) shares.

That’s the view of analysts at Bell Potter, which remains positive on the job listings giant.

What is the broker saying about this popular ASX 200 stock?

Bell Potter highlights that recent economic data remains mixed for SEEK, with interest rate hikes potentially causing headwinds for the company. However, data centre investments and increased discretionary spending are seen as positives. It said:

Recent Australian economic data remains mixed, with a view to an additional RBA rate hike as a headwind for jobs growth, noting some commentary that the current 4.35% cash rate may be the peak; unemployment eased to 4.5% from 4.1% across Jan-May after previously remaining tight through the rate rise cycle (+ve for cuts), GDP came in softer than expected at 0.3% for the March quarter (2.5% YoY) despite $13bn in data centre investment for the quarter (+ve), discretionary spending at+0.1% qtrly growth likely indicates a stretched consumer broadly (+ve), though we anticipate geo-political headwinds continue to flow through the energy-related inflation (-ve).

Clerical/Admin internet job ads have been the most challenged job category declining -3% in April on YoY/R3M/R6M bases and potentially reflects early AI-impact; Professionals, Managers, Technicians/Trades, Labourers, and Sales job ads all grew across the comparable periods.

Should you invest?

According to the note, Bell Potter continues to see value in the ASX 200 stock despite trimming its valuation.

This morning, the broker has retained its buy rating with a reduced price target of $18.60 (from $23.90).

Based on its current share price of $13.68, this implies potential upside of 36% for investors over the next 12 months.

In addition, an attractive 3.8% dividend yield is expected over the forecast period, boosting the total potential return to almost 40%.

Commenting on its recommendation, the broker said:

We maintain our Buy; SEK is our preferred rate-sensitive classifieds exposure looking through to a dovish RBA tilt, given the diversification in CAR and policy-impacted earnings outlook for REA.

Our Target Price is reduced to $18.60sh through earnings changes and an increase in our WACC to 10.3% (prev. 10.2%), a reduction our Growth Fund valuation via Coursera and an increase in Fund discount rate to 30% (prev. 20%) on visibility in PortCo operating performance in an AI-enabled environment. SEK’s underlying proprietary data (~750m points per day) partially consists of traffic meta data which is unable to be scraped by third parties, is valuable for targeted job placements, should support yield through soft volume environments.

The post Bell Potter says this popular ASX 200 stock could deliver a 40% return appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in REA Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CAR Group Ltd. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The Meridian Energy Ltd (ASX: MEZ) share price is in focus after the company’s May 2026 operating report, highlighting record-high financial year-to-date inflows and a robust 7.8% lift in monthly retail sales volumes.

What did Meridian Energy report?

• National hydro storage increased to 125% of the historical average by 8 June 2026.
• May monthly total inflows were 82% of the historical average; year-to-date inflows reached 118% of average (the highest since 1998).
• Waitaki catchment water storage ended May at 106% of the historical average, up 26% year-on-year.
• May retail sales volumes rose 7.8% compared to May 2025, with residential sales up 20.4%.
• Meridian’s total generation for May climbed 12% year-on-year, reflecting higher hydro and lower wind generation.
• Average price received for generation in May was 61.7% lower than the same month last year.

What else do investors need to know?

Meridian reported robust water storage levels, with financial year-to-date inflows at their highest since 1998. These healthy inflows underpin the company’s resilience as winter approaches and there is no indication of significant drought risk for the southern hydro lakes.

While retail customer connections dipped slightly (down 0.8% in May), they are up 14.3% compared to a year earlier. Segment sales growth was broad-based, with gains across residential, small and medium business, large business, agriculture, and corporate segments.

National electricity demand in May 2026 climbed 1.7% year-on-year (0.6% excluding NZ Aluminium Smelters), while the price Meridian received for generation saw a sharp year-on-year fall, tracking the broader drop in New Zealand electricity futures prices.

What’s next for Meridian Energy?

Meridian remains focused on navigating fluctuating weather conditions and electricity prices while maintaining strong hydro storage. With water levels well above historical averages, the company appears well-equipped to manage variable market and weather challenges in the coming months.

Investors can expect continued regular updates, with weekly lake storage figures and further details on market conditions made available on Meridian’s website.

Meridian Energy share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Meridian Energy shares have declined 14%, trailing the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 3% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post Meridian Energy: May 2026 operating update highlights robust inflows appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

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Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips. This article was prepared with the assistance of Large Language Model (LLM) tools for the initial summary of the company announcement. Any content assisted by AI is subject to our robust human-in-the-loop quality control framework, involving thorough review, substantial editing, and fact-checking by our experienced writers and editors holding appropriate credentials. The Motley Fool Australia stands behind the work of our editorial team and takes ultimate responsibility for the content published by The Motley Fool Australia.

The Australian Federal budget last month may have been a big surprise, and investors need to adapt to how they invest in property and other assets.

Changes to negative gearing may make residential less appealing to investors wanting to offset wages and other income.

Of course, we shouldn’t forget that grandfathering arrangements remain in place for residential property that was already owned, buying new builds can still allow rental losses to offset wages and other income, and rental losses on newly-bought existing properties can offset future profits from that property.

But, the capital gains tax changes may make residential property less appealing to investors.

Having said all of that, I can understand why some investors are now not as enthusiastic about residential property as before. But, I don’t believe Australians should ignore property entirely.

There’s one area of the property market I’m very optimistic about for the long-term: real estate investment trusts (REITs).

Why REITs are my go-to for property investing

Commercial properties are a huge class of assets that allow investors to buy real estate across industrial warehouses, shopping centres, office buildings, storage units, farmland, childcare centres, medical buildings, hotels and pubs, service stations and so on.

A typical REIT generates compelling rental profits each year, allowing it to pay a sizeable distribution to investors. It’s the opposite of negative gearing – we can receive pleasing payouts while (hopefully) watching the real estate go up in value over time.

For me, it’s most appealing to look at areas of the market that are seeing positive, sustainable rental growth because that’s what will fund higher distributions and increase the value of the properties.

It could also be a good time to look at the sector because higher interest rates are a temporary headwind, but falling interest rates could turn into a tailwind.

My picks in the sector

I particularly like the REITs Centuria Industrial REIT (ASX: CIP) and Dexus Industria REIT (ASX: DXI). They are experiencing strong rental growth thanks to demand areas such as e-commerce, the onshoring of logistics/supply chains, and data centres.

Rural Funds Group (ASX: RFF) is another favourite of mine because of the exposure to farmland, its contracted rental income, the long-term contracts with tenants, its ability to invest in farms to improve the productivity for tenants, and the reliability of its payouts.

Each of the above property options has distribution yields of more than 5%, which I’d describe as very compelling, in my opinion.

I also really like Charter Hall Long WALE REIT (ASX: CLW) because it has a diversified portfolio across a number of subsectors – I think it’s an effective way to invest across the Australian commercial property world. It has clients signed on for the long-term and expects to pay an annual distribution yield of 6.8%.

But REITs are just one area of the ASX of course, there are plenty of other ASX shares that could deliver even stronger returns.

The post After the Federal Budget, this is the type of property investment I’d buy in 2026 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has positions in Rural Funds Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Rural Funds Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Building long-term wealth does not need to be hard.

One easy way to do it is with ASX exchange traded funds (ETFs), which can give investors exposure to global companies, major markets, and powerful investment themes in a single trade.

Here are three ASX ETFs that could be worth a closer look.

Betashares Asia Technology Tigers ETF (ASX: ASIA)

The first ASX ETF to consider is the Betashares Asia Technology Tigers ETF.

This fund gives investors exposure to leading technology and online retail companies across Asia, but excluding Japan.

That makes it quite different from many global technology funds, which are often dominated by US names. The Betashares Asia Technology Tigers ETF can provide exposure to Asian semiconductor companies, ecommerce platforms, digital payment businesses, and online services.

Asia remains home to some of the world’s largest populations, fastest-growing digital economies, and most important technology supply chains. As more consumers and businesses in the region move online, the companies supporting that shift could have a long runway for growth.

It was recently recommended by analysts at Betashares.

iShares S&P 500 AUD ETF (ASX: IVV)

Another ASX ETF that could help build wealth over time is the iShares S&P 500 AUD ETF.

This fund gives Australian investors access to the S&P 500, which is home to many of the largest listed companies in the United States.

The fund includes businesses across technology, healthcare, financials, consumer goods, industrials, and communication services.

Its strength is arguably its simplicity. Instead of trying to figure out which US giant will outperform, investors can gain broad exposure to a large group of market leaders.

The United States remains home to many of the world’s most profitable and innovative companies, making this fund a great long-term option for investors wanting global diversification and exposure to American business strength.

Betashares Global Cybersecurity ETF (ASX: HACK)

A third ASX ETF to look at for the long-term is the Betashares Global Cybersecurity ETF.

Cybersecurity has become a basic requirement of the modern economy. Companies, governments, hospitals, banks, schools, and households all need protection as more activity moves online.

This fund gives investors targeted exposure to global cybersecurity businesses. These companies operate in areas such as network security, cloud protection, identity management, threat detection, and data defence.

The long-term case is easy to understand. Cyber threats are unlikely to disappear. If anything, artificial intelligence, cloud computing, remote work, and digital payments could make security even more important.

The Betashares Global Cybersecurity ETF is still a thematic fund, so it can be volatile. But for investors looking beyond the next year or two, cybersecurity could remain one of the more durable technology trends.

The post 3 ASX ETFs that could help build long-term wealth appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Betashares Capital – Asia Technology Tigers Etf. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended BetaShares Global Cybersecurity ETF and iShares S&P 500 ETF. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended iShares S&P 500 ETF. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Australia’s property market has shifted.

After years of relentless price growth, the combination of three RBA rate hikes, the federal budget’s negative gearing changes, and stretched affordability is doing what many thought impossible: pushing house prices lower in Australia’s two largest cities.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s (ASX: CBA) own economists estimate the budget changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax will make established investment properties less attractive. As a result, house prices are expected to be about 3% lower than they otherwise would have been.

Dwelling price growth is now expected to be just 3% to December 2026, down from an earlier forecast of 5%.

Investors are naturally asking themselves what this means for these three widely held ASX shares.

What falling house prices mean for CBA shares

CBA sits at the centre of the Australian housing market.

It is Australia’s largest mortgage lender, and falling house prices create two distinct risks for shareholders.

First, lower property values reduce the collateral backing existing mortgages, increasing loan-to-value ratios.

Second, three cash rate hikes have subtracted 1.5 percentage points from the banks’ 2026 price growth forecasts. The restriction of negative gearing will also weigh on prices, with CBA estimating this policy change will subtract 0.6 percentage points from annual price growth by the end of this year.

That slowdown will reduce the appetite for new borrowing, which directly impacts CBA’s mortgage volume growth.

In the first half of FY2026, CBA posted statutory net profit of $5.41 billion, confirming the underlying business remains strong.

But at a premium valuation, there is little room for a meaningful deterioration in credit quality.

What falling house prices mean for REA Group Ltd (ASX: REA)

REA Group is Australia’s dominant online property platform, operating realestate.com.au.

Its revenue model depends on property listing volumes and the fees charged to agents and developers.

Falling house prices create a complex picture for REA. A slowing market with more days on market can actually increase listing volumes as vendors spend longer trying to sell.

However, a sustained price decline can dampen vendor confidence, reducing the number of people willing to list at all.

REA Group’s first-half FY2026 result delivered revenue growth of 21% to $912 million, driven by strong listings and yield improvements. That momentum reflects a market that was still functioning actively in the first half.

The second half will test whether REA’s yield-per-listing growth can compensate if vendor confidence softens.

Bell Potter recently downgraded REA Group to sell with a $137 price target, noting the valuation looks stretched relative to a property market losing momentum.

What falling house prices mean for Mirvac Group (ASX: MGR)

For Mirvac, falling house prices present a more nuanced picture.

Mirvac develops new residential properties, not existing ones.

The federal budget’s negative gearing changes actually benefit Mirvac by exempting new builds from restrictions applying to established properties. This has created a direct policy incentive for investors to buy new rather than existing properties.

In Q3 FY2026, Mirvac delivered a 28% year-on-year lift in residential sales, reaffirming its full-year guidance and confirming the new-build demand tailwind is real.

Mirvac shares have still fallen approximately 26% over the past twelve months as the rate hiking cycle weighed on REIT valuations.

Macquarie carries an outperform rating on Mirvac with a price target of $2.70, arguing the residential recovery and build-to-rent growth story may drive earnings higher even in a higher-for-longer rate environment.

Foolish takeaway

Falling house prices are not a disaster for all ASX shares with property exposure.

CBA faces credit quality headwinds if the slowdown deepens.

REA Group must navigate lower vendor confidence against strong yield-per-listing growth.

Mirvac, counterintuitively, may be one of the few property-exposed ASX shares that actually benefits from the policy environment driving the slowdown.

Understanding which side of the falling house prices story each company sits on is the most important question for investors right now.

The post What falling house prices could mean for these widely held ASX shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.