ASX 200 mining share Alcoa Corporation CDI (ASX: AAI) is up 1.3% to $93.82 per share on Thursday.

This aluminium stock has had an outstanding run over the past six months.

As the chart below shows, Alcoa shares have streaked 93% higher over that short period.

Alcoa produces and sells bauxite, alumina, and aluminium products in the United States, Australia, Spain, Canada, and elsewhere.

The US-based company mines the bauxite, processes it into alumina, and then sells the alumina to smelters and industrial manufacturers.

The company also sells alloy ingot or value-add ingot to producers in the transport, construction, packaging, and wiring segments.

Alcoa also owns hydro power plants that generate electricity, which it sells in the wholesale market to traders, large industrial consumers, and others.

Tomorrow, Alcoa will release its full-year FY25 results.

Before we get a look at the books, let’s consider what’s driving this ASX 200 mining share higher.

What’s powering this ASX 200 mining share’s remarkable surge?

In an article on Forbes.com, investment data analysts at Trefis say Alcoa shares have ripped for three main reasons.

The first is the rising aluminium price.

Aluminium futures are currently trading at three-and-a-half-year highs.

Today, the aluminium price is US$3,119 per tonne, up 6% in a month and 18% year over year.

A number of factors are supporting aluminium futures, including strong demand for renewable energy infrastructure and electric vehicles; aluminium production caps in China, which is the world’s largest producer; and a 50% tariff on imports into the US (with some exceptions).

Trefis commented:

Aluminum is omnipresent in the contemporary economy. It’s an essential material in everything from lightweight automotive structures to aircraft components and green energy infrastructure.

The soaring demand from industries like electric vehicles and data centers — which require large quantities of aluminum for cooling systems and structural elements — has bestowed this metal with a newfound strategic significance not observed since the early 2000’s.

Amid this higher demand, temporary suspensions at key smelters in Iceland, Mozambique, and Australia have lowered global supply.

This has also supported the aluminium price.

Remember Alumina shares?

Alcoa is listed on the New York Stock Exchange as Alcoa Corp (NYSE: AA).

Alcoa Corporation CDIs began trading on the ASX after Alcoa acquired the ASX-listed company, Alumina Limited, in August 2024.

Alumina was a 40% joint venture partner in Alcoa World Alumina and Chemicals (AWAC).

AWAC operates bauxite mines and alumina refineries in Australia and other countries.

As part of the deal, Alumina shareholders received Alcoa CDIs.

Trefis said the second reason this ASX 200 mining share has ripped is strategic company decisions, including buying out Alumina.

They said:

Alcoa is not merely benefiting from a commodity upturn — the company’s financials have exhibited substantial progress.

In the third quarter of 2025, Alcoa disclosed revenues of nearly $3.0 billion and a net income of $232 million, more than double that of the same timeframe a year prior.

This strong performance was bolstered not only by increased aluminum realizations but also by strategic portfolio decisions.

Another strategic decision was Alcoa’s divestment of its stake in the Ma’aden joint venture in July last year.

The analysts said this generated considerable capital gains and strengthened Alcoa’s balance sheet.

These cash inflows have offered flexibility for debt repayment, investments in efficiency upgrades, and support for shareholder returns.

Capital flows out of high-tech and into hard assets

A third factor driving this ASX 200 mining share’s price is more institutional money flowing out of technology and into materials producers.

Alcoa’s surge aligns with a larger trend emerging in 2025–2026: institutional capital is shifting away from high-flying tech stocks and towards hard asset producers — material companies that provide the essential building blocks of the global economy.

Aluminum, copper, and steel manufacturers have all experienced renewed interest as investors reassess inflation, infrastructure spending, and commodity restrictions.

There are other factors driving this redirection of capital.

Trefis said:

This transition … encompasses geopolitical developments, trade regulations, and supply chain adjustments.

Recent tariffs on aluminum and steel, capacity limitations in Asia, and infrastructure reconstructions in certain areas of South America have contributed to a narrative that industrial metals are back in demand.

While the Alcoa share price surge is certainly impressive, with clear tailwinds behind it, Trefis warns of potential risks.

The stock could be susceptible to an increase in global supply, especially from Indonesia, which may add over 1.5 million tons of annual capacity in the coming years.

Concerns about valuations also persist. Current P/E and price-to-book ratios are at elevated levels compared to historical averages, implying that investor enthusiasm might already be factored into stock prices.

The post Why is this ASX 200 mining share up 93% in six months? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has positions in Alcoa. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The PLS Group Ltd (ASX: PLS) share price is trading in the green at the time of writing on Thursday afternoon. The shares are up 1.41% to $5.02 in what is the first time the stock has broken the $5 barrier since August 2023.

The Australian lithium miner’s shares have had an incredible run throughout the first few weeks of the year. For the year to date, the shares are up 16.47% and the stock is currently trading 109.3% higher than this time last year.

What caused the PLS share price surge?

The PLS share price has been steadily rising over the past six months, and at a pretty fast pace. 

Most of the increase is due to a rally in lithium prices and sentiment, primarily driven by a surge in interest in electric vehicles (EV) and battery energy storage. Global EV sales have been rising faster than carmakers can keep up, and demand for grid-scale energy storage amid a shift towards renewable energy is also rocketing.

As owner and operator of one of the world’s largest independent hard rock lithium mines, Pilgangoora in Western Australia, PLS has scooped up a lot of the benefit. 

As a business, PLS has also gone from strength to strength over the past 6 months. In its September quarter update, the company revealed a 2% increase in spodumene production and a 20% increase in realised pricing. This gave PLS a huge 30% increase in its revenue to $251 million.

What’s next for the miner?

In 2026, PLS will continue to focus on its production growth and cost reduction plans to make the business more efficient and boost investor confidence.

Meanwhile, recent upgrades for the lithium market could also drive the PLS share price higher in 2026. 

UBS recently said that an 11% increase in lithium demand could push the market into a deficit from 2026 onwards. Based on that, the broker has lifted its lithium (SC6 CFR China) forecast by 64% in 2026 to US$1,800 per tonne. The broker anticipates lithium prices could jump up to US$2,625 per tonne in 2028. 

This is great news for PLS as it positions itself to pick up more demand, but after such a strong price rally over the past few months, I’m concerned we could see some share price volatility ahead. 

Some brokers have moved quickly to upgrade their price targets on the shares but many still expect the price to cool in coming months.

This week, Bell Potter upgraded its rating to hold and lifted its price target to $4.55, from $2.65. Macquarie has a hold rating but has lifted its price target to $4.50, from $3.80.

TradingView data shows that the majority of analysts have a hold rating on PLS shares. The average target price is $4.12, which implies an 18.09% downside at the time of writing. But the maximum target price is $6.50, which suggests a potential 28.97% upside over the next 12 months.

The post So the PLS share price made it past $5. Big deal. What’s next? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

ASX blue-chip shares are typically among the most stable and resilient businesses on the stock exchange, capable of providing a good dividend yield.

Having a great market position has usually come about because the business has (one of) the best offerings for customers, great brand power, and appealing economics (compared to peers).

Businesses in the blue-chip space can usually provide investors with a good dividend yield because of two key factors.

Firstly, they are not priced for a lot of growth – they are already very large companies – so the price-earnings (P/E) ratio is lower than a faster-growing business.

Secondly, they’re not investing significantly for growth, so they can be generous with the dividend payout ratio.

While they’re not 10% dividend yields, the below businesses have solid dividend yields themselves.

Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS)

Telstra’s leading position in the Australian mobile space is not new, but the company’s focus on growing dividends is a relatively new development.

I’d rather have a good yield with growing payments than a huge yield and no growth (with a higher risk of dividend reductions).

Telstra is in a much better position now that the NBN transition has finished and there’s ongoing adoption of 5G by the nation. It has the widest network coverage and seemingly a very reliable connection.

The ASX blue-chip share’s outlook is positive – user numbers on the network continue to grow and Telstra is capitalising on its market position with price increases, which is driving mobile earnings higher.

Analyst projections on CommSec suggest the business could pay an annual dividend per share of 20 cents in FY26. That would be a grossed-up dividend yield of around 6%, including franking credits.

I’m optimistic that the business can claim a larger market share in home and small business broadband that is powered by 5G. For each connection, Telstra captures the margin that’s currently going to the NBN. This could help increase its profitability, which would be helpful for the dividend.

Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL)

Coles is a leading supermarket business which is currently delivering faster growth than Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW) thanks to its product offerings and value. The business also operates a number of liquor companies including Coles Liquor and Liquorland.

The ASX blue-chip share has invested heavily in new automated distribution centres (ADCs) from Witron as well as customer fulfilment centres (CFCs). This is helping improve the company’s efficiencies and stock management, as well as driving e-commerce capabilities.

In the first quarter of FY26, supermarket sales excluding tobacco grew 7%, while e-commerce sales soared 27.9%.

The boost to cash flow after the completion of the distribution centres will help fund larger dividend payouts in the next few years. Its base earnings are very defensive thanks to the integral nature of what it sells.

The forecast on CommSec suggests the business could pay an annual dividend per share of around 79 cents in FY26, translating into a grossed-up dividend yield of 5.3%, including franking credits.

The post 2 ASX blue-chip shares offering big dividend yields appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Telstra Group and Woolworths Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) shares are being hit hard today, even though gold prices remain near record highs.

The Northern Star share price has dropped 8.78% to $26.08 following the release of the company’s December quarter update. That sell-off comes despite the stock still being up 53% over the past year.

Let’s take a look at the headline results and why the top-tier gold miner’s shares fell today.

Why Northern Star shares fell

Northern Star reported gold sales of 348,062 ounces for the quarter at an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of $2,937 per ounce. That AISC figure was higher than expected and reflected a series of one-off operational issues across several sites.

Management said production was hit by a crusher failure at Kalgoorlie and unplanned downtime at Thunderbox. Lower grades at the Pogo mine, as it moved into new mining areas, also weighed on results.

While many of these issues have since been resolved, the weaker quarter forced the company to revise full-year guidance.

The guidance cut that worried the market

For FY26, Northern Star now expects gold sales of 1.6 to 1.7 million ounces, down from its prior range of 1.7 to 1.85 million ounces. Cost guidance was also lifted, with AISC now forecast at $2,600 to $2,800 per ounce.

That change was enough to knock confidence in the short term. Investors appear to be reacting to weaker near-term numbers, rather than reassessing the company’s longer-term outlook.

Strong balance sheet remains a key positive

For long-term investors, the key question is whether this update affects the company’s long-term outlook.

On that front, Northern Star still looks well-positioned. The company ended December with $1.176 billion in cash and bullion, remained in net cash, and generated $328 million in underlying free cash flow, even after heavy growth spending.

Management expects production to improve in the second half as recent issues are resolved. Major projects, including the KCGM mill expansion, are also continuing to move forward.

So, is this a buying opportunity?

Today’s sell-off looks driven by short-term disappointment, not long-term damage to the company’s underlying fundamentals.

Northern Star still owns long-life gold assets, has a strong balance sheet, and benefits from gold prices near record highs.

For investors who believe gold prices will stay strong, this pullback may offer an excellent buying opportunity. The key is to be comfortable with short-term ups and downs along the way.

The post After today’s 8% plunge, is Northern Star now a buy for gold investors? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The top three S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) uranium shares for capital growth were also the best performers of the whole energy sector last year.

This represented a rising global trend of nations embracing domestically produced nuclear power as part of the green energy transition.

Anna Wu, a senior associate in cross-asset investment research for VanEck, said nuclear power was a “winner” in markets last year.

In an article, Wu said:

Demand for low carbon, efficient energy sources, primarily driven by the artificial intelligence sector, has resulted in a recent boom for uranium miners and nuclear energy infrastructure sectors.

Some of the companies within the markets helped drive global equity markets in 2025 and this could continue into 2026.

Broadly speaking, the ASX 200 energy sector was sluggish in 2025, with the S&P/ASX 200 Energy Index (ASX: XEJ) falling 2.25%.

Dividends raised the total return to 3.21%.

Both the energy and materials sectors involve harnessing naturally occurring commodities that are abundantly available in Australia.

Yet there was a stark contrast in performance last year.

Materials was the strongest sector, with the S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index (ASX: XMJ) rising 31.71% and giving a total return of 36.21%.

3 best ASX 200 uranium shares for growth

These were the top stocks last year.

1. Deep Yellow Ltd (ASX: DYL)

Shares in ASX 200 uranium explorer Deep Yellow lifted 63% to close at $1.84 per share on 31 December.

Today, Deep Yellow shares are steady at $2.28.

2. Nexgen Energy (Canada) CDI (ASX: NXG)

Shares in Canadian uranium explorer Nexgen Energy rose 30% to $14 per share on 31 December.

On Thursday, Nexgen Energy shares are $18.18, up 2.2%.

3. Paladin Energy Ltd (ASX: PDN)

The ASX 200’s largest uranium share, Paladin Energy, lifted 27% to finish the year at $9.59.

Today, the Paladin Energy share price is $12.76, down 3.2%.

What’s driving ASX 200 uranium shares higher?

The uranium price gained momentum in 2H CY25, supporting ASX 200 uranium shares.

The commodity hit a 15-month high of $83.50 per tonne in September. Today, the uranium price is US$85.25 per tonne.

Wu said there are three key forces powering the nuclear energy investment thematic.

They are increasing electricity demand due to new artificial intelligence infrastructure, more electric vehicles on the roads, more battery-powered machinery used across many industries, the adoption of cryptocurrency, and intense heat driving the use of air conditioning.

Wu noted increased government and regulatory support for nuclear power across the world.

Wu commented:

Following the Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011, many countries deprioritised nuclear energy in favour of other sources.

However, in recent years, many have reversed their stance or affirmed their commitment, recognising the critical importance of nuclear energy in the power mix…

The United States, Japan, China, Switzerland, India, and Norway are all seeking to establish or expand domestic nuclear production.

In the US, Wu said the ADVANCE Act and the Inflation Reduction Act are providing critical support for nuclear technologies.

The ADVANCE Act streamlines regulatory processes, fosters public-private partnerships, and accelerates innovation in small modular reactors (SMRs).

Similarly, the Inflation Reduction Act bolsters nuclear energy’s competitiveness by offering production tax credits, levelling the playing field with renewable sources like wind and solar.

Meanwhile, China is investing in nuclear fusion.

By some estimates, the Chinese government is spending around US$1.5 billion annually on fusion research, nearly twice that of the US.

In India, Wu said there are plans to set up 50 small modular reactors, with the hope of integrating them into old, non-nuclear power plants.

The post Best 3 ASX 200 uranium shares of 2025 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) experienced an immediate fall after new unemployment data was published today.

The ASX 200 was trading at an intraday peak of 8,864.5 points when the Australian Bureau of Statistics released the data at 11:30am.

The ASX 200 dropped by 0.3% to an intraday low of 8,782.9 points after the data revealed that the jobless rate fell to 4.1% in December.

This has enhanced fears of an interest rate hike in the new year to quell resurgent inflation.

At the time of writing, the ASX 200 has recovered to be up 0.5% for the day at 8,829.6 points.

Unemployment falls to 4.1%

The ABS reported a 0.2% fall in the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate from 4.3% in November to 4.1% in December.

The concern here is that lower unemployment may contribute to resurgent inflation seen in the last few months of 2025.

Lower unemployment indicates a healthy economy in which people have capacity to spend.

This could see demand for goods and services rise, which may push up inflation.

The ABS said the number of people employed rose by 65,000 in December, comprising 55,000 full-time jobs and 10,000 part-time jobs.

Sean Crick, ABS head of labour statistics, said:

This month we saw more 15-24 year olds moving into employment, contributing to the rise in overall employment and the fall in the unemployment rate.

The growth in employed people led to the participation rate rising slightly to 66.7 per cent.

This was despite a 30,000 person drop in unemployment.

The number of hours worked rose 0.4% to reach a record high of more than two billion hours for the first time.

ASX 200 bank stocks rise while gold miners flounder

ASX 200 bank shares are higher on Thursday, with Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) up 1.7% to $149.76.

The Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) share price is up 1.4% to $38.66.

National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) shares are 2.7% higher at $42.31.

ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) shares are up 0.8% to $36.45.

The Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) share price is up 2.5% to $210.89.

Meanwhile, the ASX 200 materials sector is the worst performer of the day.

The S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index (ASX: XMJ) is down 1.7% as gold shares cop a beating.

Gold shares and gold ETFs are lower because higher interest rates make non-yielding safe-haven assets like precious metals less attractive.

Gold stocks are also suffering a contagion effect today after the market’s largest player, Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST), disappointed investors with its December quarter report.

The Northern Star Resources share price is sharply down 8.9% at $26.06.

The Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) share price is 5.9% lower at $13.92.

Newmont Corporation CDI (ASX: NEM) shares are 4.7% lower at $172.24.

The Genesis Minerals Ltd (ASX: GMD) share price is $7.51, down 4.3% today.

The Betashares Global Gold Miners Currency Hedged ETF (ASX: MNRS) is down 4.5% to $17.99 per unit.

The VanEck Gold Miners AUD ETF (ASX: GDX) is down 6% to $150.38 per unit.

By contrast, ASX 200 retail shares are sharply higher, with the S&P/ASX 200 Consumer Discretionary Index (ASX: XDJ) up 2.2%.

Shares in Smiggle owner Premier Investments Ltd (ASX: PMV) are among the highest risers of the sector today, up 9.4% to $13.96.

Footwear retailer Accent Group Ltd (ASX: AX1) is up 4.4% to 96 cents per share.

Yesterday, the market was already pricing in a 25% chance of an interest rate hike when the Reserve Bank Board meets on 2-3 February.

The post ASX 200 drops as lower unemployment raises the risk of an interest rate hike appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Accent Group and Premier Investments. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

ASX exchange-traded funds (ETFs) provide a simple and cheap way to invest in international shares via our local exchange.

Access to global markets is one of the reasons Australians sank a net $53 billion into ETFs last year, up 75% on 2024.

There is now $331 billion invested across 423 ETFs on the market, according to Betashares data.

The Australian Securities Exchange has just released the full-year performance data for ASX ETFs in 2025.

Here, we look at the six ETFs holding international shares that delivered the best total returns last year.

Top 6 ASX ETFs holding international shares

The green energy transition and strongly rising commodity prices were the key themes across the top six ETFs for 2025.

1. Betashares Global Gold Miners ETF — Currency Hedged (ASX: MNRS)

MNRS ETF was the best-performing ETF holding international shares last year.

The Global Gold Miners ETF delivered an astounding total return of 155.87%. The historical distribution yield is 0.2%.

MNRS was pushed higher by the surging gold price, which propelled gold mining stocks worldwide.

The gold price rose 65% in 2025, its greatest annual rise in more than four decades, after a 27% gain in 2024.

This ETF’s currency hedging proved very valuable in 2025 as the USD weakened against the AUD. We explain the impact here.

MNRS ETF is $18.04 per unit on Thursday, down 4.25%.

2. VanEck Gold Miners ETF (ASX: GDX)

The VanEck Gold Miners ETF delivered a similarly stunning return of 143.76%. The historical distribution yield is 0.48%.

GDX ETF is $150.60 per unit, down 5.9% at the time of writing.

3. Global X Physical Silver Structured (ASX: ETPMAG)

The ETPMAG ETF delivered a remarkable return of 132.84% with no dividends paid.

The silver price skyrocketed in 2025 by a staggering 147% due to tighter supply and demand.

Silver is a key input in solar panels, electric vehicles, and AI infrastructure like data centres due to its superior conductivity to copper.

Technology manufacturers also use silver to build circuits, connectors, and to solder metals in smartphones and laptops.

The commodity was added to the US Critical Minerals list in November.

ETPMAG ETF is $123.67 per unit, down 4% at the time of writing.

4. Global X Physical Platinum Structured (ASX: ETPMPT)

The ETPMPT ETF more than doubled in value with a total return of 109.49%. No dividends were paid.

Platinum is one of six metals in the Platinum Group Elements (PMEs).

PMEs are on the critical minerals lists of many countries, including the US, Australia, Europe, the UK, India, and Japan.

Platinum is used in catalytic converters in low-emissions cars, aerospace alloys, chemical refining, and petroleum processing .

ETPMPT ETF is $323 per unit, down 3.6% today.

5. Betashares Energy Transition Metals ETF (ASX: XMET)

The XMET ETF delivered a fantastic one-year return of 100.47%. The historical distribution yield is 0.19%.

XMET ETF is $17.49 per unit, down 2.4%.

6. Global X Green Metal Miners ETF (ASX: GMTL)

The GMTL ETF produced an impressive total return of 81.01%. The historical distribution yield is 0.19%.

GMTL ETF is $15.23 per unit, up 0.2%.

Further reading

Check out the six best-performing ETFs holding ASX shares for 2025.

The post Astronomical returns: Best 6 ASX ETFs holding international shares for 2025 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The analyst team at Jarden have run the ruler over the packaging giants listed on the ASX, and it’s fair to say they like what they see.

For both of the majors, Amcor Plc (ASX: AMC) and Orora Ltd (ASX: ORA), they are projecting better than 25% returns.

Let’s look at Amcor first.

Takeover integration

The big news for Amcor over the past year has been its $8.4 billion merger with Berry Global, which was expected to deliver $650 million in synergies for the merged group.

Amcor said in April last year that it expected earnings per share accretion of 12% in FY26 from the synergies alone, with total earnings per share accretion growing to more than 35% by the end of FY28.

The Jarden team said in a research note to clients this week that, “following a period of Berry merger integration, investors are looking for signs that the Amcor business is delivering to expectations”.

The Jarden team said there were headwinds for the company, saying “evidence has emerged that customer and industry volumes have deteriorated”.

They added:

Amcor has guided to relatively flat volumes on the prior year in FY26, which seems ambitious given volumes were down in the low single digits in 1Q26 and we have seen further deterioration in customer results and commentary since then. Notwithstanding this, Amcor seems likely to flex cost and synergy levers as it attempts to reassure investors.

Jarden has a target price of $80.20 for Amcor shares, and once the 5.9% dividend yield is factored in, they project a total shareholder return of 29.6% over 12 months.

Plenty of room to improve

Meanwhile, over at Orora, Jarden said there are “very low expectations” for the company, particularly on the earnings outlook for its Saverglass division.

Much has been made about the weakness of end demand and soft retail ⁄ customer volumes, and an ongoing debate we encounter is whether this is cyclical or a structural shift in demand for alcohol generally. Near term, we think this misses the point, especially as Orora cycles destocking from the prior ~18 months. Australian cans demand has likely remained strong and we look for delivery in line with expectations for Gawler.

Jarden said there are “no balance sheet concerns” for the company, and with “a path to improving free cash generation and potentially capital management from FY27, we see an attractive combination of catalysts for investors”.

Jarden has a $2.60 price target on Orora shares, which, combined with the 4.9% dividend, would represent a total shareholder return of 27.4% if achieved.

The post These two packaging majors are tipped to return better than 25% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Amcor Plc. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Orora. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

In afternoon trade, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is on course to record a strong gain. At the time of writing, the benchmark index is up 0.65% to 8,839.6 points.

Four ASX shares that have failed to follow the market higher today are listed below. Here’s why they are falling:

Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG)

The Fortescue share price is down 4.5% to $21.59. Investors have been selling this iron ore producer’s shares after it released its second quarter and first half production update. Although it reported a small increase in shipments for the second quarter and record shipments for the half, investors appear concerned by a jump in its unit costs. This meant that for the half year, C1 costs averaged US$18.64 per tonne. This is slightly above the top end of its full year guidance range of US$17.50 per tonne to US$18.50 per tonne.

Generation Development Group Ltd (ASX: GDG)

The Generation Development Group share price is down 7.5% to $5.57. This is despite the investment bond company reporting a 36% increase in group funds under management (FUM) to $34.5 billion. The company’s CEO, Felipe Araujo, commented: “We continue to see strong and consistent momentum in our inflows, underpinned by deep adviser engagement and growing awareness of the role investment bonds play in long-term wealth planning.” It seems that some investors were expecting even stronger growth.

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST)

The Northern Star share price is down almost 9% to $26.10. Investors have been selling this gold miner’s shares following the release of its quarterly update. Northern Star reported gold sold totalling 348,000 ounces at an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of A$2,937 per ounce. This reflects a number of one-off operational events across its assets which resulted in a softer December quarter. This is expected to lead to cash earnings of $1,060 million to $1,110 million, which is down from $1,146 million in the prior corresponding period.

Pantoro Gold Ltd (ASX: PNR)

The Pantoro Gold share price is down 11% to $5.17. This follows the release of the gold miner’s quarterly production update. Pantoro revealed that it produced 22,071 ounces of gold during the December quarter. This was broadly in line with recent run rates. This underpinned gold sales of 22,473 ounces at an average realised price of A$6,077 per ounce and an AISC of $2,571 per ounce. Pantoro reported EBITDA of $83.6 million for the three months. Ord Minnett was expecting the company to report production of 26,000 ounces for the quarter.

The post Why Fortescue, Generation Development, Northern Star, and Pantoro shares are falling today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Pantoro shares plunge 10% today. What just happened?
• Fortescue shares tumble as cost increase disappoints
• Generation Development Group posts record December quarter earnings and inflows
• Fortescue: Record iron ore shipments and strong cash flow in H1 FY26
• Northern Star Resources cuts guidance after softer quarter

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Generation Development Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Shares in South32 Ltd (ASX: S32) have hit a fresh 12-month high after the company exceeded expectations for first-half production.

The diversified miner said in a statement to the ASX that its FY26 production guidance was unchanged for all of its operated assets, while guidance for the non-operated Brazilian aluminium business was under review, “as we await the operator’s revised ramp-up profile, following lower than planned quarterly volumes”.

Better-than-expected production

Diving into each commodity, alumina production was up 3% in the first half, aluminium production was up 2%, zinc was up 13%, and manganese was up 58%.

RBC Capital Markets analysts said that the result was “generally ahead of consensus”.

Importantly, FY26 production guidance was reaffirmed across all operated assets, with H1 operating unit costs tracking in line with or below guidance at most operations. Given concerns around seasonal fires and wet weather, the strong volume and cost performance will be seen as a positive.

RBC said the non-operated Sierra Gorda copper operation continued to perform well, delivering US$180 million in distributions to South32.

South32 Chief Executive Officer Graham Kerr said it was a solid result.

We continued to deliver consistent operating results, with FY26 production guidance maintained across our operated assets and first half operating unit costs tracking in line with guidance. Our consistent operating performance, combined with strengthening market conditions, enabled the group to maintain a strong financial position while investing in our high-returning growth options and delivering returns to shareholders. Completing the divestment of Cerro Matoso during the quarter further simplified our business, consistent with our strategy to focus our portfolio on high-quality operations and growth options in base metals.

Mr Kerr said the company also “progressed construction of Hermosa’s large-scale, long-life, Taylor zinc-lead-silver project, and completed the exploration decline for the Clark battery-grade manganese deposit”.

He added:

Sierra Gorda delivered strong copper volumes and cash returns, and we are pursuing further copper growth through our pipeline of development options and exploration prospects. During the quarter, our Ambler Metals joint venture approved a circa-US$35m work program to advance the high-grade Arctic polymetallic deposit and test exploration targets within this underexplored, regional land package in Alaska.

South32 shares were 4.3% higher at $4.36 at noon on Thursday. The company was valued at $18.75 billion at Wednesday’s close.

RBC has an outperform rating on South32 shares and a price target of $4.20.

The post South32 shares hit a 12-month high after a solid first-half performance appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Why Cogstate, DroneShield, Premier Investments, and South32 shares are storming higher
• South32 grows output and returns cash: December 2025 quarterly earnings update
• Gold, silver hit new highs as US punishes Europe with tariffs over Greenland stance
• ASX 200 materials sector outperforms as mining shares continue their ascent
• Brokers issue new price targets on soaring ASX 200 mining shares

Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.