The analyst team at Jarden have run the ruler over the packaging giants listed on the ASX, and it’s fair to say they like what they see.

For both of the majors, Amcor Plc (ASX: AMC) and Orora Ltd (ASX: ORA), they are projecting better than 25% returns.

Let’s look at Amcor first.

Takeover integration

The big news for Amcor over the past year has been its $8.4 billion merger with Berry Global, which was expected to deliver $650 million in synergies for the merged group.

Amcor said in April last year that it expected earnings per share accretion of 12% in FY26 from the synergies alone, with total earnings per share accretion growing to more than 35% by the end of FY28.

The Jarden team said in a research note to clients this week that, “following a period of Berry merger integration, investors are looking for signs that the Amcor business is delivering to expectations”.

The Jarden team said there were headwinds for the company, saying “evidence has emerged that customer and industry volumes have deteriorated”.

They added:

Amcor has guided to relatively flat volumes on the prior year in FY26, which seems ambitious given volumes were down in the low single digits in 1Q26 and we have seen further deterioration in customer results and commentary since then. Notwithstanding this, Amcor seems likely to flex cost and synergy levers as it attempts to reassure investors.

Jarden has a target price of $80.20 for Amcor shares, and once the 5.9% dividend yield is factored in, they project a total shareholder return of 29.6% over 12 months.

Plenty of room to improve

Meanwhile, over at Orora, Jarden said there are “very low expectations” for the company, particularly on the earnings outlook for its Saverglass division.

Much has been made about the weakness of end demand and soft retail ⁄ customer volumes, and an ongoing debate we encounter is whether this is cyclical or a structural shift in demand for alcohol generally. Near term, we think this misses the point, especially as Orora cycles destocking from the prior ~18 months. Australian cans demand has likely remained strong and we look for delivery in line with expectations for Gawler.

Jarden said there are “no balance sheet concerns” for the company, and with “a path to improving free cash generation and potentially capital management from FY27, we see an attractive combination of catalysts for investors”.

Jarden has a $2.60 price target on Orora shares, which, combined with the 4.9% dividend, would represent a total shareholder return of 27.4% if achieved.

The post These two packaging majors are tipped to return better than 25% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Amcor Plc. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Orora. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

In afternoon trade, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is on course to record a strong gain. At the time of writing, the benchmark index is up 0.65% to 8,839.6 points.

Four ASX shares that have failed to follow the market higher today are listed below. Here’s why they are falling:

Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG)

The Fortescue share price is down 4.5% to $21.59. Investors have been selling this iron ore producer’s shares after it released its second quarter and first half production update. Although it reported a small increase in shipments for the second quarter and record shipments for the half, investors appear concerned by a jump in its unit costs. This meant that for the half year, C1 costs averaged US$18.64 per tonne. This is slightly above the top end of its full year guidance range of US$17.50 per tonne to US$18.50 per tonne.

Generation Development Group Ltd (ASX: GDG)

The Generation Development Group share price is down 7.5% to $5.57. This is despite the investment bond company reporting a 36% increase in group funds under management (FUM) to $34.5 billion. The company’s CEO, Felipe Araujo, commented: “We continue to see strong and consistent momentum in our inflows, underpinned by deep adviser engagement and growing awareness of the role investment bonds play in long-term wealth planning.” It seems that some investors were expecting even stronger growth.

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST)

The Northern Star share price is down almost 9% to $26.10. Investors have been selling this gold miner’s shares following the release of its quarterly update. Northern Star reported gold sold totalling 348,000 ounces at an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of A$2,937 per ounce. This reflects a number of one-off operational events across its assets which resulted in a softer December quarter. This is expected to lead to cash earnings of $1,060 million to $1,110 million, which is down from $1,146 million in the prior corresponding period.

Pantoro Gold Ltd (ASX: PNR)

The Pantoro Gold share price is down 11% to $5.17. This follows the release of the gold miner’s quarterly production update. Pantoro revealed that it produced 22,071 ounces of gold during the December quarter. This was broadly in line with recent run rates. This underpinned gold sales of 22,473 ounces at an average realised price of A$6,077 per ounce and an AISC of $2,571 per ounce. Pantoro reported EBITDA of $83.6 million for the three months. Ord Minnett was expecting the company to report production of 26,000 ounces for the quarter.

The post Why Fortescue, Generation Development, Northern Star, and Pantoro shares are falling today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Pantoro shares plunge 10% today. What just happened?
• Fortescue shares tumble as cost increase disappoints
• Generation Development Group posts record December quarter earnings and inflows
• Fortescue: Record iron ore shipments and strong cash flow in H1 FY26
• Northern Star Resources cuts guidance after softer quarter

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Generation Development Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Shares in South32 Ltd (ASX: S32) have hit a fresh 12-month high after the company exceeded expectations for first-half production.

The diversified miner said in a statement to the ASX that its FY26 production guidance was unchanged for all of its operated assets, while guidance for the non-operated Brazilian aluminium business was under review, “as we await the operator’s revised ramp-up profile, following lower than planned quarterly volumes”.

Better-than-expected production

Diving into each commodity, alumina production was up 3% in the first half, aluminium production was up 2%, zinc was up 13%, and manganese was up 58%.

RBC Capital Markets analysts said that the result was “generally ahead of consensus”.

Importantly, FY26 production guidance was reaffirmed across all operated assets, with H1 operating unit costs tracking in line with or below guidance at most operations. Given concerns around seasonal fires and wet weather, the strong volume and cost performance will be seen as a positive.

RBC said the non-operated Sierra Gorda copper operation continued to perform well, delivering US$180 million in distributions to South32.

South32 Chief Executive Officer Graham Kerr said it was a solid result.

We continued to deliver consistent operating results, with FY26 production guidance maintained across our operated assets and first half operating unit costs tracking in line with guidance. Our consistent operating performance, combined with strengthening market conditions, enabled the group to maintain a strong financial position while investing in our high-returning growth options and delivering returns to shareholders. Completing the divestment of Cerro Matoso during the quarter further simplified our business, consistent with our strategy to focus our portfolio on high-quality operations and growth options in base metals.

Mr Kerr said the company also “progressed construction of Hermosa’s large-scale, long-life, Taylor zinc-lead-silver project, and completed the exploration decline for the Clark battery-grade manganese deposit”.

He added:

Sierra Gorda delivered strong copper volumes and cash returns, and we are pursuing further copper growth through our pipeline of development options and exploration prospects. During the quarter, our Ambler Metals joint venture approved a circa-US$35m work program to advance the high-grade Arctic polymetallic deposit and test exploration targets within this underexplored, regional land package in Alaska.

South32 shares were 4.3% higher at $4.36 at noon on Thursday. The company was valued at $18.75 billion at Wednesday’s close.

RBC has an outperform rating on South32 shares and a price target of $4.20.

The post South32 shares hit a 12-month high after a solid first-half performance appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is back on form and charging higher on Thursday. In afternoon trade, the benchmark index is up 0.6% to 8,835.2 points.

Four ASX shares that are rising more than most today are listed below. Here’s why they are storming higher:

Cogstate Ltd (ASX: CGS)

The Cogstate share price is up 7% to $2.35. Investors have been buying this neuroscience technology company’s shares following the release of preliminary results for the first half of FY 2026. Cogstate reported a 12% increase in total revenue to $26.9 million, which is ahead of its guidance range of $25 million to $26 million. Cogstate’s CEO, Brad O’Connor, said: “Cogstate’s momentum continues to grow. We continue to see a record level of new sales opportunities from an expanded customer base across more indications, and those opportunities have translated into an increased value of sales contracts executed in the December half year.”

DroneShield Ltd (ASX: DRO)

The DroneShield share price is up 7% to $4.63. This may have been driven by a broker note out of Bell Potter this morning. According to the note, the broker has retained its buy rating on the counter-drone technology company’s shares with an improved price target of $5.00. Bell Potter said: “We believe the key catalyst for DRO in CY26 is the potential awards stemming from the US Public Safety market, notably from the US$250m funds allocated to states hosting the FIFA World Cup and the America 250 events for C-UAS protection. We would be disappointed if DRO did not receive material awards from these events.”

Premier Investments Ltd (ASX: PMV)

The Premier Investments share price is up 8.5% to $13.85. This appears to have been driven by a broker note out of Macquarie this morning. According to the note, the broker has upgraded this retailer’s shares to an outperform rating with a $16.20 price target. This implies potential upside of 17% even after today’s gain. Macquarie believes the Peter Alexander and Smiggle owner’s shares are undervalued after significant weakness.

South32 Ltd (ASX: S32)

The South32 share price is up 4% to $4.36. This follows the release of the mining giant’s first half update this morning. South32 reported a 3% increase in alumina production, a 2% lift in aluminium production, and a 58% jump in manganese production. South32’s CEO, Graham Kerr, said: “We continued to deliver consistent operating results, with FY26 production guidance maintained across our operated assets and first half operating unit costs tracking in line with guidance.”

The post Why Cogstate, DroneShield, Premier Investments, and South32 shares are storming higher appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Cogstate and DroneShield. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Cogstate. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Premier Investments. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

As we’ve been covering this week, gold, and by extension gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs), are currently in the middle of one of the most dramatic bull runs in the history of precious metal investing. Two years ago, the yellow metal was going for around US$2,000 an ounce. One year ago, that same ounce was worth just under US$2,800. Today, it will cost an investor about US$4,800 after hitting another new record high of US$4,887 in the past 24 hours. That’s a 12-month gain worth a whopping 71% or so.

Many of the factors that have pushed gold higher over the past few years arguably remain in place today. Economic uncertainty remains a constant in the global economy, exemplified this week by the storm of tariff threats and trade sanctions being thrown around in response to US President Donald Trump’s aspiration to acquire Greenland. Government debt across major economies of the world continues to climb. Central banks continue to snap up gold at record rates. And geopolitical tensions remain high across several global hotspots.

As such, many ASX investors may wish to add gold (or more gold) to their portfolios in 2026, despite the record-high prices. Of course, physical gold bullion in bar or coin form will continue to be the preference of many investors seeking to buy gold. However, many others might prefer the ease of investing in gold ETFs over holding physical metal.

There are many gold ETFs on the ASX that these investors can choose from. So, which is the best? Let’s look at some options.

Which ASX gold ETF is the best to buy in 2026?

For starters, there’s Perth Mint Gold (ASX: PMGOLD). This ETF is managed by the Perth Mint. Its units represent ownership of physical metal held in the Perth Mint vault, and are subject to a government guarantee from Western Australia. They can even be converted to gold bullion if investors wish. As with all of the ETFs we’ll discuss today, this tie to gold means that PMGOLD units should rise and fall in value alongside the price of gold itself.

Perth Mint Gold charges a management fee of 0.15% per annum.

There’s also the Global X Physical Gold ETF (ASX: GOLD) to consider. This gold ETF works similarly to Perth Mint Gold, with each unit representing entitlement to a physical store of precious metal. In this case, that bullion is held in a vault in London. The Global X Physical Gold ETF charges a fee of 0.4% per annum.

Another gold ETF in this vein is the VanEck Gold Bullion ETF (ASX: NUGG). NUGG units are tied to physical gold held in an Australian vault. Like PMGOLD, the units can be exchanged for bullion at investors’ convenience. This ETF asks an annual management fee of 0.25%.

To hedge or not to hedge?

All of the funds we’ve discussed offer gold exposure to Australian investors in US dollar terms. The units are unhedged to Australian dollars, meaning that fluctuations in our exchange rate can influence the pricing of these ETFs, even if the underlying price of gold in US dollars doesn’t change.

However, the BetaShares Gold Bullion Currency Hedged ETF (ASX: QAU) is different. It still holds bullion in a London vault, and its units are tied to the value of that bullion. But this ETF also uses currency hedging to mitigate any movements in the Australian dollar, effectively offering a pure exposure to gold in US dollar terms.

This doesn’t come free, though, and QAU charges a management fee of 0.59% per annum for its services.

It’s a similar story with the Global X Gold Bullion (Currency Hedged) ETF (ASX: GHLD). This ETF works almost identically to GOLD, but also adds a hedging mechanism. It asks 0.35% per annum in management fees.

Foolish Takeaway

As you can see, there are many gold ETFs on the ASX for precious metal enthusiasts to choose from. Which is the best choice comes down to individual preference. If you like the idea of an Australian holding, PMGOLD or NUGG might be your preferred option. PMGOLD also offers the lowest fees on this list, and has significantly more assets under management than NUGG.

If you wish to employ currency hedging, then QAU or GHLD are your only choices. Given the differences in fees there, I would personally be more inclined to give GHLD a look.

The post With gold up 71%, which is the best ASX gold ETF to buy? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Want to buy gold in 2026? Here are 3 ways to do it

Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Starting in the share market with a small amount of money can feel intimidating. It is easy to think that $3,000 in ASX shares is not enough to make a meaningful difference. I disagree.

What matters far more than the starting balance is building good habits early, choosing sensible investments, and giving yourself exposure to long-term growth. 

If I were starting from scratch today with $3,000 to invest on the ASX, this is how I would approach it.

Get instant diversification

The first thing I would do is avoid putting all my money into a single company. One bad result, regulatory change, or industry downturn can derail a concentrated portfolio very quickly.

To solve that problem, I would start with an exchange-traded fund (ETF).

I would invest $1,500 into the Vanguard Australian Shares Index ETF (ASX: VAS).

The VAS ETF gives exposure to the largest companies listed on the ASX, including banks, miners, technology stocks, healthcare leaders, and consumer staples. It is low-cost, diversified, and pays regular dividends. More importantly, it allows a new investor to participate in the long-term growth of Australian businesses without needing to pick individual winners straight away.

If I were just starting, having this kind of stable core would help me stay invested through market ups and downs.

Add growth potential

With diversification in place, I would use the remaining capital to introduce some growth.

I would invest $1,000 into Zip Co Ltd (ASX: ZIP).

Zip is not a low-risk stock, and I would be very clear about that from the outset. However, I think it offers something valuable in a small starter portfolio: exposure to a company with meaningful upside if execution continues to improve.

The business has been simplifying its operations, focusing on profitability, and tightening its cost base. If earnings growth materialises over the next few years, Zip could deliver returns that are difficult to achieve through index investing alone.

I would keep the position size modest and accept volatility as part of the journey.

Balance with quality income

Finally, I would allocate the remaining $500 to a high-quality, defensive business that pays reliable dividends.

One stock I would seriously consider is Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS).

Telstra is not a fast-growing company, but it generates steady cash flows and plays an essential role in Australia’s communications infrastructure. For a new investor, owning a business like Telstra can help smooth returns and provide income that can be reinvested over time.

That dividend income might seem small initially, but reinvesting it consistently is one of the most powerful habits an investor can develop early.

Why this approach works for beginners

This $3,000 portfolio would not be exciting every week, and that is a good thing.

It combines broad market exposure through the VAS ETF, growth potential through Zip, and stability and income through Telstra.

More importantly, it creates a foundation that can be built on. As additional savings are added over time, I would likely keep topping up the ETF, selectively increase exposure to high-quality shares and funds, and remain patient.

The post How I would invest $3,000 in ASX shares if I were starting today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has positions in Vanguard Australian Shares Index ETF. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Telstra Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW) shares are currently trading around $31, a level that sits well above the company’s multi-year low reached in 2025, but still meaningfully below where the market valued the business at its peak.

That positioning makes the investment question more nuanced than it might first appear. Woolworths is widely regarded as one of the highest-quality defensive businesses on the ASX, but a great company does not automatically equal a slam-dunk investment at any price.

So, at $31, do the shares still offer compelling value?

Why Woolworths shares fell in the first place

Woolworths’ share price weakness over the past year was driven by an unusually poor operating period. Cost pressures intensified across wages, energy, and logistics, while competition in food retail remained fierce. At the same time, consumers became increasingly price sensitive, forcing heavier discounting that compressed margins.

Execution issues also emerged, particularly within its supply chain and e-commerce operations. While none of these challenges were existential, they were enough to disrupt earnings momentum in a business that investors had come to view as extremely stable.

The result was a sharp reset in expectations and a meaningful share price decline.

What has improved since then

Since hitting its low, Woolworths has shown signs of stabilisation. Sales momentum has improved, cost pressures are easing, and management has refocused on operational discipline.

Importantly, Woolworths still benefits from defensive characteristics that few ASX businesses can match. Demand for groceries is resilient across economic cycles, and the company’s scale provides structural advantages in sourcing, distribution, and pricing.

Consensus expectations point to a recovery in earnings over the next few years and a return to steady growth. For example, according to CommSec, earnings per share (EPS) is forecast to be $1.28 in FY26, $1.45 in FY27, and $1.66 in FY28.

Is the valuation still attractive at $31?

At around $31, Woolworths is no longer trading at distressed levels. The market has already priced in a degree of recovery from its worst period.

However, at a P/E ratio of 24 times, the shares also do not look to be trading on a stretched valuation. Particularly given the outlook for double-digit EPS growth through to FY28.

Additionally, for income-focused investors, the dividend outlook remains supportive. Consensus estimates point to fully-franked dividends per share of 99.5 cents in FY26, $1.13 in FY27, and $1.35 in FY28.

This represents forward dividend yields of 3.2%, 3.65%, and then 4.35%.

So, is it a slam-dunk buy?

I think the answer is increasingly yes.

While Woolworths shares are no longer priced at bargain-basement levels, the investment case today looks far stronger than it did a year ago. Earnings are recovering, cost pressures are easing, and management has refocused on operational execution. Importantly, this recovery is occurring within a business that already enjoys highly defensive demand, scale advantages, and strong cash generation.

At a forward P/E of around 24 times, Woolworths does not look cheap in absolute terms. But when that valuation is weighed against its defensive qualities, the outlook for steady double-digit earnings growth through to FY28, and a rising stream of fully-franked dividends, it begins to look reasonable for a business of this quality.

The post At $31, are Woolworths shares still a slam-dunk buy? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

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• How to turn ASX dividends into long-term wealth
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• Are Woolworths shares a blue-chip buy?
• How to build an ASX share portfolio for income and growth

Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Woolworths Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Any investor looking for a monthly payout should seriously consider investing in the BetaShares Dividend Harvester Active ETF (ASX: HVST) for passive income.

I’ve written before about how the Metrics Master Income Trust (ASX: MXT) is a strong monthly-paying stock. And even the Plato Income Maximiser Ltd (ASX: PL8) and its regular payments are an ASX investor’s dream. But I think HVST is a better buy for passive income. Here’s why.

Why HVST shares are a great option for passive income

HVST is an ASX-listed exchange-traded fund (ETF) that gives its investors exposure to a portfolio of 40 to 60 dividend-paying shares. The fund is constructed in a way that allows it to own a dividend share until it trades ex-dividend. At this point, the fund sells the shares and reinvests the proceeds into its next passive income-generating shares.

Its portfolio is rebalanced roughly every three months. And it targets shares that are expected to pay dividends within the next rebalance period. To improve its diversification, HVST also has exposure to the broader sharemarket exposures through an ETF. The process is referred to as ‘dividend harvesting’.

The fund’s share portfolio is typically drawn from the 100 largest ASX-listed companies and selected based on forecasts of high dividends and franking credits, based on their expected future gross dividend payments.

HVST’s portfolio allocation is weighted towards the financial sector (24.2%), with materials accounting for another 10.7%.

The fund’s top 10 holdings include Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA), BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP), Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES), and CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL).

How much passive income does HVST pay to its investors?

HVST provides a regular, franked dividend income that is around double the annual income yield of the broader ASX. As of the 31st of December, its 12-month gross distribution (dividend) yield is 7.4%, and the net yield is 5.8%. The franking level is 66%. The fund’s annual management fee and costs are 0.72%.

HVST has a long history of paying consistent monthly dividends to its investors. The fund paid out $0.060929 per share to investors earlier this week. Prior to this, it paid $0.0652 per share per month from August to December, up from $0.0648 paid out throughout the first half of 2025. This equates to an annual running total of $0.775729 per share fully franked.

At the time of writing on Thursday morning, HVST shares are up 0.75% to $13.51 a piece. For the year to date, the shares have climbed 0.15%.

The post Passive income investors: This ASX stock has a 7.4% dividend yield with monthly payouts appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL and Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group, CSL, and Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The Pantoro Gold Ltd (ASX: PNR) share price is under pressure today after the company released its December 2025 quarterly report.

The Pantoro share price is down 10% to $5.22 in early afternoon trade, despite the gold producer delivering another strong operational quarter.

Zooming out, Pantoro shares are still up more than 200% over the past 12 months. That rally has been driven by a higher gold price and a sharp turnaround in operational performance.

So, what did Pantoro report?

Another strong quarter on paper

Pantoro produced 22,071 ounces of gold during the December quarter, broadly in line with recent run rates. Gold sales totalled 22,473 ounces at an average realised price of $6,077 per ounce, reflecting the strength in the local gold price.

Importantly, costs remained under control. All-in sustaining costs (AISC) came in at $2,571 per ounce, helping Pantoro generate EBITDA of $83.6 million for the quarter.

Cash generation was equally impressive. The company reported operating cash flow of $39.2 million. As a result, Pantoro’s cash and gold balance increased by $35 million to $216.5 million at 31 December.

Operations continue to improve

The Scotia underground mine produced 7,869 ounces at an average grade of 3 grams per tonne. Development is moving into higher grade northern zones, which Pantoro expects to become a key source of ore in the coming months.

At the OK underground mine, production reached 7,081 ounces at a stronger grade of 4.31 grams per tonne. Open pit mining at Princess Royal and Gladstone also continued, with first ore from Gladstone expected by the end of the March quarter.

Drilling results were encouraging, particularly at Mainfield and Crown South Reef, supporting Pantoro’s longer-term growth plans.

Why are Pantoro shares falling then?

Despite the solid numbers, Pantoro flagged that FY 2026 production is now expected to come in at the lower end of its 100,000 to 110,000 ounce guidance range.

After a huge share price run over the past year, that softer outlook may have been enough to trigger profit taking. With gold stocks having rallied hard, the market appears to be demanding continued upside surprises.

Foolish Takeaway

Pantoro’s quarterly report highlights strong cash flow, a robust balance sheet, and ongoing operational and asset base improvements.

While the share price reaction looks negative today, the underlying business remains well-positioned if gold prices stay supportive. Investors will be watching whether Pantoro can convert its strong cash generation into consistent production growth.

The post Pantoro shares plunge 10% today. What just happened? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Ahead of reporting season, the team at Jarden has run the ruler over the aviation sector and come to the conclusion that both Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN) and Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd (ASX: VGN) are good buys at current levels.

Looking at Qantas first, the Jarden team notes that the share price has underperformed the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) since reporting its FY25 result, “following concerns around the earnings outlook from weaker demand and higher oil prices”.

A win-win in “rational” sector

But the Jarden team says that according to their analysis, the Australian aviation sector “remains in the best competitive rationality setting” for the past 20 years or so.

With this in mind, we think any near-term demand weakness can have its impact on operating earnings moderated by capacity rationality (lower growth) and yield management (improved pricing). We see the 1H26 result as a key catalyst for the Qantas share price to outperform near term. As a result, we reiterate our Buy rating and maintain our 12-month $12.70 target price.

Jarden is expecting a dividend yield of 3.1% from Qantas, and if its price target is achieved, this would represent a 24.2% return for investors.

The Jarden team said Qantas had so far only modestly changed its capacity settings, reducing them by about 1%, to reflect a changing demand environment, “and focus, we think, on load factor and yield preservation”.

From here, we see the revenue available per seat kilometre outlook as potentially more driven by ticket price movements than by load factor changes. Importantly, this could also provide additional support for earnings through 2H26E, should the fuel cost environment overall prove better than feared.

The Jarden team also noted that jet fuel prices have fallen about 47% since November.

Looking into 2H26, we see scope for adjustments to fuel price expectations, which could provide near-term upward support for earnings estimates for Qantas, all else remaining equal.

Qantas is expected to report its first-half results on February 26.

The company was worth $15.87 billion at the close of trade on Wednesday.

Virgin also cheap at current levels

Jarden also has a bullish price target on shares in Virgin, with a target price of $4, compared with $3.29 currently.

Virgin is set to deliver its first interim result since being relisted on the ASX, with that to happen on February 27.

Jarden said they believed it was too early for the company to start paying dividends, but nonetheless, they expected a solid result.

We see the fundamentals as remaining strong for Virgin Australia in the near term and maintain our Overweight rating and lift our 12-month target price from $3.90 to $4.00 following changes in the Virgin share price impacting its capital structure.

The post Which airline could deliver almost 25% returns? See what the analysts say appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.