• Russia's economy can't afford to win or lose the war in Ukraine, one economist says.
• That's because Russia can't afford the cost of rebuilding and securing Ukraine.
• The cost of repairing its own nation is already "massive," Renaud Foucart says.

Russia's economy is completely dominated by its war in Ukraine, so much that Moscow cannot afford either to win or lose the war, according to one European economist.

Renaud Foucart, a senior economics lecturer at Lancaster University, pointed to the dire economic situation facing Russia as the war in Ukraine wraps up its second year. 

Russia's GDP grew 5.5% year-over-year over the third quarter of 2023, according to data from the Russian government. But most of that growth is being fueled by the nation's monster military spending, Foucart said, with plans for the Kremlin to spend a record 36.6 trillion rubles, or $386 billion on defense this year.

"Military pay, ammunition, tanks, planes, and compensation for dead and wounded soldiers, all contribute to the GDP figures. Put simply, the war against Ukraine is now the main driver of Russia's economic growth" Foucart said in an op-ed for The Conversation this week.

Other areas of Russia's economy are hurting as the war drags on. Moscow is slammed with a severe labor shortage, thanks to young professionals fleeing the country or being pulled into the conflict. The nation is now short around 5 million workers, according to one estimate, which is causing wages to soar.

Inflation is high at 7.4% — nearly double the 4% target of its central bank. Meanwhile, direct investment in the country has collapsed, falling around $8.7 billion in the first three quarters of 2023, per data from Russia's central bank.

That all puts the Kremlin in a tough position, no matter the outcome of the war in Ukraine. Even if Russia wins, the nation can't afford to rebuild and secure Ukraine, due to the financial costs as well as the impact of remaining isolated from the rest of the global market. 

Western nations have shunned trade with Russia since it invaded Ukraine in 2022, which economists have said could severely crimp Russia's long-term economic growth.

As long as it remains isolated, Russia's "best hope" is to become "entirely dependent" on China, one of its few remaining strategic allies, Foucart said.

Meanwhile, the costs of rebuilding its own nation are already "massive," he added, pointing to problems like broken infrastructure and social unrest in Russia.

"A protracted stalemate might be the only solution for Russia to avoid total economic collapse," Foucart wrote. "The Russian regime has no incentive to end the war and deal with that kind of economic reality. So it cannot afford to win the war, nor can it afford to lose it. Its economy is now entirely geared towards continuing a long and ever deadlier conflict."

Other economists have warned of trouble coming for Russia amid the toll of its war in Ukraine. Russia's economy will see significantly more degradation ahead, one London-based think tank recently warned, despite talk of Russia's resilience in the face of Western sanctions.

This story was originally published in February 2024.

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• Markets are too optimistic about a soft landing, JPMorgan chief Jamie Dimon told The Wall Street Journal.
• He expects soft landing odds to be half of what markets are pricing in.
• "Don't get lulled into a false sense of security because the today looks okay."

Things aren't looking particularly rosy for markets and the economy, Jamie Dimon said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal. 

"The odds of a soft landing, the market kind of prices in 70%. I think it's half of that," the JPMorgan chief said. "It looks a little bit more like the '70s to me, and I point out to a lot of people, things looked pretty rosy in 1972 — they were not rosy in 1973."

Dimon referred to a US slowdown at that time, when an oil crisis sent inflation soaring and a recession took hold, a dire situation known as stagflation.

But this time around, Dimon sees different reasons for why markets should stay cautious.

That includes massive fiscal deficits and upcoming inflation drivers, from green energy initiatives to the world's rearming. Dimon also remains wary about the Federal Reserve's efforts to reduce its balance sheet, citing that no one knows the full effects of doing so.

"Don't get lulled into a false sense of security because the today looks okay, that tomorrow is gonna be okay," he said. 

For now, the economy is visibly strong, Dimon said, with consumers staying in good shape. But even that hints at problems to come, given how reliant the economy has become on fiscal spending for its own success.

"The deficit is 6% of GDP, almost $2 trillion," he said. "That's driving a lot of this growth and that will have other consequences, possibly down the road, called inflation, which may not go away like people expect."

Once such problems take hold, they're also likely to stay for the long-term, extending into 2025 and 2026, Dimon warned.

His latest comments are another installment in a slew of warnings Dimon has made this past month. In his April letter to shareholders, the CEO also cautioned against market optimism, following up with similar outlooks during JPMorgan's earnings call. 

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• Justices are under pressure to issue a quick ruling on Donald Trump's sweeping immunity claim.
• Special counsel Jack Smith wants justices to send the case right to trial.
• A delay would increase the likelihood Trump avoids another potential trial before the election.

Within the first minutes of the Supreme Court hearing oral arguments Thursday in a landmark case over whether former President Donald Trump is immune from criminal prosecution in a federal case over his efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election, a hypothetical question surrounding a president ordering an assassination was posed.

"If the president decides that his rival is a corrupt person, and he orders the military or orders someone to assassinate him, is that within his official acts for which he can get immunity?" Justice Sonia Sotomayor asked Trump's attorney D. John Sauer.

Sauer argued it could.

"It would depend on the hypothetical. We can see that could well be an official act," Saur replied.

Sotomayor interjected, "It could, and why? Because he's doing it for personal reasons."

"And isn't that the nature of the allegations here, that he's not doing these acts in furtherance of an official responsibility, he's doing it for personal gain?" Sotomayer asked.

Sauer followed up, "I agree with that characterization of the indictment and that confirms immunity."

Sauer and the justices spent some time Thursday morning debating whether certain hypothetical situations would be considered "private acts" or an "official acts" under Sauer's argument.

The nation's highest court will weigh whether to fully or even partially support Trump's unprecedented claim of presidential immunity, which protects former presidents from facing criminal charges if their actions were related to the job.

It's unclear when the Supreme Court will release its decision on Trump's claims. If the justices adhere to their normal schedule, a ruling would be released at the end of June. Special counsel Jack Smith has urged justices to deal with the former president's case quickly so the trial over Trump's underlying charges related to trying to overturn the 2020 presidential election can proceed.

Trump's trial was supposed to have begun last month, but depending on how the Supreme Court rules in this case, it could be delayed past the election. Legal observers have repeatedly pointed out that the former president could count it as a victory even if justices reject his sweeping immunity claims if their decision takes up more time. If Trump were to win the election in November, he could even find ways to scuttle Smith's prosecution entirely.

As of now, Trump's Manhattan hush-money trial is his only criminal trial to have started. Trump could not attend oral arguments at the Supreme Court due to the New York trial, in which he stands charged with 34 counts of business fraud related to hush-money payments made to porn star Stormy Daniels.

His other cases, including another Smith-led case focused on Trump's hoarding of classified documents, don't yet have trial dates and are unlikely to be tried before the election.

The justices could also fundamentally change the presidency itself. Never before has a former president faced criminal prosecution. Their ruling could have sweeping effects on the future of the presidency, particularly if they accept some of Trump's argument that a Nixon-era Supreme Court decision on civil immunity applies to criminal charges as well. Smith and many legal scholars have argued that such immunity could empower the presidency to the point where the nation's highest office in the land would be above the law the executive branch is required to enforce.

Trump and his allies have repeatedly hinted that if immunity is not granted, they may try to prosecute President Joe Biden as a form of retribution.

The former president has never been shy about suggesting his political rivals should be sent to prison.

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• President Joe Biden signed the TikTok divest-or-ban bill into law on Wednesday.
• TikTok said it would challenge the law in court, citing First-Amendment violations.
• Legal experts said Congress' national-security argument could still win over free-speech concerns in courts.

Congress passed a bill this week that will force TikTok's owner to sell its US assets or face removal from mobile-app stores. President Joe Biden signed the bill into law on Wednesday. Parent company ByteDance now has between 9 months and a year to sell or spin off the app in the US.

What comes next will be an all-out legal battle.

TikTok has vowed to "move to the courts," where it plans to challenge the law as "a clear violation of the First Amendment rights of the 170 million Americans on TikTok," per an internal memo sent to staff on Saturday. The company will likely ask for a preliminary injunction, stopping the countdown clock on its sale until legal questions are sorted out.

Other parties, like TikTok creators, may launch separate legal challenges in the coming weeks, as they have done in the past. First-Amendment-focused organizations like the ACLU or the EFF could file amicus briefs defending TikTokers' free-speech rights.

Will these legal challenges work? Maybe…

Earlier attempts to ban or force a sale of TikTok often haven't stood up in court.

Trump's 2020 order to ban TikTok was halted by a federal judge who said it likely exceeded executive authority. A Montana law that attempted to ban the app was struck down in 2023 by a federal judge who said it overstepped state power and "likely violates the First Amendment."

This time, however, could be different. The reason? Congress is arguing that TikTok poses a national-security risk, and the courts tend to defer to that governing body when it comes to issues of national security, experts told Business Insider. The federal government has more authority on that subject than a state like Montana does.

"The court will look at the merits of the case, but really driven by deference to Congress as having much more understanding of the national-security risks than the judges themselves do," Matthew Schettenhelm, a senior litigation analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, told BI. Schettenhelm estimated the law had a 70% chance of surviving a legal challenge.

It's a coin toss when national-security interests come up against speech protections

If this law wasn't about protecting national security, TikTok's case would be a slam dunk. Its argument that the law violates free speech is clear, as passing a bill that could lead to a ban will box out tens of millions of Americans from an app they use to say things every day.

While the bill is framed around forcing new ownership of TikTok, it's likely to result in a ban, which strengthens the free-speech argument. The Chinese government has signaled it opposes a TikTok divestment. Its foreign ministry said last month that a forced sale was "sheer robbers' logic." Its government has the final say on the export of TikTok's algorithm, which would make the app much harder to spin-off.

Restricting free speech would be a big problem for the bill if it didn't have national-security interests at its core. While First-Amendment arguments are well supported in court, national-security concerns also have a lot of sway, legal experts told BI.

"The First Amendment is the trump card that basically allows you to prevail if you can plausibly make a First-Amendment argument," said G.S. Hans, an associate clinical professor of law at Cornell Law School and associate director of its First-Amendment clinic. "National security also is a trump card, and the government often wins when it claims that. The question for me is, which trump card does the court think is more valuable?"

Security arguments have stood up in the past for more narrow cases against TikTok. A federal judge upheld a Texas law that blocked state employees from using the app on state-owned devices and networks, saying it was a "reasonable restriction on access to TikTok in light of Texas's concerns."

Show us your smoking-gun evidence, Congress

Legal experts said the evidence the US government brings to court to prove that TikTok is a national-security risk will be central to its case. It has to demonstrate that a forced divestiture or outright ban is necessary.

"It can't be just conclusory, or in other words to say, 'We think there's a national security threat. Therefore we should ban the app,'" said Lena Shapiro, director of the First Amendment clinic at the University of Illinois College of Law. "They have to provide evidence."

Congress' bipartisan bill is the culmination of years of political attacks from Washington on TikTok's operations. Politicians fear its owner ByteDance, which is headquartered in China, could be forced to share US user data with the Chinese Communist Party because of a standing National Intelligence Law. US officials have also raised concerns that the CCP could use TikTok to censor or promote information and even influence an election, serving its own interests. TikTok has denied both of these claims.

"We believe the facts and the law are clearly on our side, and we will ultimately prevail," a TikTok spokesperson told BI in a statement. "We have invested billions of dollars to keep US data safe and our platform free from outside influence and manipulation."

Congress hasn't proven that an outright sale or ban of TikTok is the only way to protect national-security interests. Other less severe efforts like a national data privacy law could solve some of its concerns without limiting speech, for example.

"The government bears the burden of pointing to an important interest in instituting this law," said Ramya Krishnan, a senior staff attorney at the Knight First Amendment Institute at Columbia University, which filed a legal challenge against Texas's state-device ban last year. "There's the onus of showing that it could not achieve its interest in narrower ways."

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• A $22,000 Tesla might be too good to be true, but you can find good deals right now.
• High mileage on a used EV can be a red flag.
• EV's already depreciate a lot faster than gas cars.

A slew of used Teslas have hit the Hertz car sales website after the company announced Thursday it planned to sell off 10,000 more electric vehicles from its fleet than originally planned, bringing the fire sale's total to 30,000.

Across the US, there are nearly 3,000 EVs listed on the firm's sales website — 1,500 of them Teslas — with Model 3s asking as low as $22,000 when we checked. (And even lower for a Chevy Bolt).

It's a screaming deal for shoppers in the market for a used Tesla or any budget-minded EV shopper, a demographic slowly making up most of the electric car market.

A car-rental company like Hertz is always a good place to look for a deal on a used car, but when it comes to EVs, there are a number of different pitfalls to keep in mind since the used market is not near as mature for battery-powered vehicles.

Mileage and battery usage

A used Tesla that has been in a rental fleet is likely to used much more frequently than one that's been personally owned.

You can see that in the difference in mileage when you look on Kelley Blue Book for a used Model 3. One example in Southeast Michigan was listed for $27,995 at a local dealership with 46,171 miles.

Another $20,125 Model 3 we found on the Hertz website in January, a 2021 model, was listed with 92,789 miles.

Mileage is always something to consider when shopping for a used car, but with electric vehicles little is known at this early stage about battery deterioration at high mileages. This mystery in the valuation equation has created a headache for the industry as more electric cars hit the used market.

Maintenance

Used cars tend to require more maintenance than a car fresh from the factory. With an EV that can look different than a simple part or filter replacement.

One of the reasons Hertz cited in its Thursday filing for reducing its EV fleet was the elevated cost of maintenance for these vehicles. Teslas in particular are notoriously difficult to service, due to the lack of brick-and-mortar infrastructure for Tesla service and the level of technology packed into the cars.

Even something as simple as a fender bender can be difficult to manage with a Tesla, and these cars are a lot easier to total than their gas-powered counterparts.

Consider the cost of keeping your Tesla charged

While $20,000 is an incredible deal in today's car market (the average new car sells for around $46,000, and the average new EV closer to $50,000), adding an EV to your driveway comes with more than just the sticker price on the car.

In order to get the most out of an electric vehicle, it's usually recommended to have some form of fast charging at home. These chargers cost anywhere from $250 to $750, and installation can run you somewhere around $1,600.

Depending on your state, the energy usage for overnight charging can start to get pricey as well.

Electric cars depreciate quickly

Perhaps one of the reasons you can get such a good deal on a Tesla at Hertz right now is that the outlook for EV value retention is pretty grim at the moment.

A recent study from iSeeCars found that electric cars have an average five-year depreciation rate of 49.1%, compared to an industry average of 38.8%.

Tesla's Model 3 does fare the best in resale values, only falling 42.9% in five years, but as Tesla lathers on more discounts for new models, that could quicken the pace of depreciation.

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• It's still likely the Fed will issue its first rate cut this June, Citi economist Veronica Clark said.
• That's because central bankers will need to support a weakening labor market, Clark told Yahoo Finance.
• The job market has shown signs of weakening in some sectors, like manufacturing.

The Federal Reserve is still likely to cut rates in June in order to prop up the labor market amid a slowdown in hiring, according to Citi economist Veronica Clark. 

Speaking with Yahoo Finance this week, Clark pointed to signs of weakness in the US labor market, despite robust job growth seen so far this year. The US added 303,000 payrolls last month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics — the third straight month of stronger-than-anticipated hiring.

But that growth could start to slow later in 2024, Clark predicted. Manufacturing employment activity continued to contract in March, a sign that hiring is already starting to weaken in some sectors. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, has inched higher in recent months, with the total jobless rate notching a 2-year-high of 3.9% in February.

"We have a base case for June still," Clark said of rate cuts, though she noted a July Fed rate cut was also possible. "If anything, we think inflation is pretty sticky, but we think the Fed is looking at some of this labor market data … and really getting worried that we might be entering a weaker labor market." 

Fed officials raised interest rates 525 basis-points over the last two years. That's helped tame inflation but has raised the risk of a recession, the first signs of which could crop up in the labor market, economists have warned.

While Clark anticipates looser Fed policy, investors have pushed back on their outlook for Fed rate cuts this year after a hotter-than-expected inflation report in March. Markets are now pricing in just one or two cuts by December, according to the CME FedWatch tool, down from as many as seven rate cuts projected at the start of 2024. 

Central bankers, for their part, have suggested interest rates should remain higher for longer. The Fed needs more confidence that inflation is on track to return to its 2% price target, Powell said recently, sparking a sharp pullback in stocks in this month as investors recalibrated rate-cut expectations. 

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• A New York City lawyer is suing his ex-boyfriend, also a lawyer, for custody of a miniature poodle.
• The couple purchased the dog — Raven — together in 2020, but broke up last month.
• Taylor Leighton, who called the dog his 'child,' is also seeking more than $200,000 in damages.

A New York lawyer is suing his former boyfriend, also a lawyer, for custody of their miniature poodle and more than $200,000 in damages, according to an affidavit published by the Daily Beast.

According to the affidavit, Taylor Leighton, who works for Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld LLP, is seeking the recovery of Countess Raven, a three-year-old black miniature poodle.

The dog, purchased in 2020 from a Minnesota-based breeder, was named after actor Raven-Symoné and "Countess" Luann de Lesseps of "The Real Housewives of New York City," the affidavit said.

The affidavit noted that the dog was purchased from a breeder for $2,791, including a $300 deposit.

In the affidavit, Leighton argued that although Nathan Greess contributed $2,000 toward the purchase, it was only because he owed money for household expenses.

The couple broke up last month, with Leighton claiming it was over his reluctance to commit to marriage.

Leighton argued in the legal document that he was Raven's "primary caretaker" and that they shared a "unique, personal bond" forged by the time he spent with her before his ex-boyfriend woke each morning.

To underscore his commitment to the dog, he wrote in the affidavit how he planned an "extravagant first birthday party" for Raven.

"I spent several days planning and decorating, including blowing up hundreds of balloons and placing decals on the wall to give Raven a special day," he said, adding that he was "one of those crazy pet parents."

He also said in the affidavit that he had not seen the dog since March 10, the day after, he claimed, an altercation led to him being admitted to the hospital and the police being called.

"It has now been more than a month since I have been able to see Raven and I know that this is causing her undue stress and anxiety," Leighton said. "It is certainly causing me extreme anxiety, stress, and depression."

In the affidavit, he also described Raven as more than just a pet: "I consider her to be my child."

Neither Greess nor Leighton immediately responded to Business Insider's requests for comment.

According to Scripps News, pet custody battles have been steadily increasing as a trend over the past few decades. The news channel said that they have become so prevalent that pet-custody mediators now offer "pet-nups."

Leighton said in the affidavit that he had tried to resolve the situation, with the pair's fathers acting as intermediaries, but both had now retained legal counsel.

According to the news outlet, in addition to custody, Leighton is seeking $100,000 for intentional infliction of emotional distress, $100,000 for negligent infliction of emotional distress, and $7,791 for the purchase of Raven and the cost of her care.

Leighton also requested that a judge order Greess to share custody of the dog until a final determination is reached, according to the Daily Beast.

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• Mint Butterfield, the teen child of two tech founders, has gone missing in California.
• Butterfield, 16, is believed to have run away, local authorities say — perhaps to San Francisco
• Authorities are appealing for help finding Butterfield.

Mint Butterfield, the teen child of tech founders who set up Slack and Flickr, went missing over the weekend.

The 16-year-old was last seen on Sunday evening in Bolinas, California, north of San Francisco.

The local sheriff's office put out a missing-juvenile alert on Tuesday seeking information about them.

The alert, described in a Nextdoor post by K. Walther, a deputy in the Marin County Sheriff's Office, said Butterfield was last seen Sunday at 10 p.m.

The following morning, Walther said, Butterfield was gone. She asked for anybody with information to contact the sheriff's office.

The San Francisco Standard wrote that Butterfield was reported missing Monday by their mother, Flickr cofounder Caterina Fake.

Their father is Stewart Butterfield, who cofounded Flickr with Fake and went on to cofound the workplace messaging service Slack.

Representatives for Marin County Sheriff's Office, Stewart Butterfield, and Fake did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Walther's Nextdoor post said Butterfield likely took a suitcase, and may have headed for San Francisco itself.

In the past, Butterfield often visited San Francisco's Tenderloin district, an area known for homelessness, crime, and drugs, officials told The Standard.

DailyMail.com reported that Butterfield may be somewhere else, though, citing a social-media post by a family friend.

The friend, per the report, said Butterfield was seen in Larkspur Landing, north of San Francisco and around a 50-minute drive from Bolinas.

Business Insider was unable to verify the report.

Marin County Sheriff's Office described Butterfield as being five feet tall with "brown/reddish curly hair" and pierced eyebrows. They were last seen wearing a black sweatshirt, flannel pajama pants, and black boots.

Butterfield's parents, Stewart Butterfield and Caterina Fake, cofounded the photo service Flickr together in 2004.

They were married from 2001 until 2007, reported the New York Post, and sold Flickr to Yahoo! for an estimated $30 million in 2005.

Their divorce was finalized in 2007, the same year Mint Butterfield was born, according to the Post.

Stewart Butterfield cofounded Slack in 2013 with Cal Henderson. He left the company in December 2022, Business Insider reported.

He is worth $1.6 billion, according to an estimate by Forbes.

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Harvey Weinstein's sex crimes conviction was overturned Thursday by the New York Court of Appeals, which found that he hadn't gotten a fair trial.

In its 4-3 decision, the appeals court found Weinstein's trial judge had erred in allowing accusers to testify who were not listed in the criminal charges against him, The New York Times reports.

Manhattan District Attorney Alvin L. Bragg must now decide whether to retry the case.

Weinstein's lawyer Arthur Aidala, who represented the ex-movie mogul in his New York appeal, did not immediately respond to a request for comment by Business Insider.

This is a developing story.

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• Ukraine is getting a new type of laser-guided missile from the UK, the Paveway IV.
• While "pretty old," they can do good damage against poorly-defended Russia targets, an expert said.
• Ukraine probably won't risk its bomber planes taking on heavier defenses, with them, though.

Ukraine is about to get a new type of laser-guided bomb that can wreck "soft" Russian targets, a military analyst said.

Britain is giving Ukraine a cache of Paveway IV bombs as part of its latest aid delivery, its defense ministry told Business Insider.

Paveway IV bombs are dropped from planes, and weigh in at around 500 lbs. They have laser guidance that means they can operate even in bad weather, or through enemy smoke screens, per the UK's Royal Air Force.

While the bombs are "pretty old," they are "high precision" weapons and a "very" reliable technology, Sergej Sumlenny, founder of the German think tank European Resilience Initiative Center, told BI.

"This is a good weapon against soft targets — that means air defenses, radars, inventory, depots, and communication centers will be the primary target," he said.

Such devices are significant, he said, because they could compete against Russia's gliding bombs.

Russia has used gliding bombs to devastating effect against Ukrainian positions, pounding its defenses and opening the way for Russian troops to make advances on the front lines.

But the Paveway IV bombs, in conjunction with other high-precision weapons Ukraine has, would be "very" effective if Ukraine were to mount the same kind of operation against Russia, Sumlenny said.

James Black, assistant director of defense research at RAND Europe, had a different take.

He told BI that while the bombs will likely be of "some" use, their range is an issue.

Ukraine's air force is small and much less advanced than Russia's, making it hard for Ukraine to risk them on bombing raids where Russia could shoot them down.

Black said the Paveways are "unlikely to have a transformational impact on the battlefield."

He said that the US-supplied longer-range ATACMS munitions that are heading to Ukraine in the latest package approved by Congress will be of "much greater" value.

He said they can target a wider range of Russian targets and do not rely on navigating enemy air defenses or risking manned aircraft.

Justin Bronk, a Russia and air warfare expert at the UK's Royal United Services Institute, said that Ukraine probably wouldn't be able to make much use of the laser targeting because it lacks the supporting equipment to go with it.

Aircraft dropping them would likely have to do so as far away as possible, limiting their precision he said.

Besides Paveway IV bombs, the UK's aid package to Ukraine, which amounts to some $625 million, includes about 400 vehicles, 1,600 missiles, and four million rounds of small-arms ammo.

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