Shares in S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) gold stock Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) are taking a tumble today.

Evolution Mining shares closed yesterday at $3.76 apiece. In earlier trade today, shares were swapping hands for $3.64, down 3.2%. After some likely bargain hunting, the Evolution Mining share price has recovered to $3.72 a share, down 1.2%.

Despite that recovery, the ASX 200 miner is trailing the benchmark, with the ASX 200 down a lesser 0.6% at time of writing. And in a better comparison of apples to apples, the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index (ASX: XGD) is down 0.5%.

Here’s what’s happening.

What’s pressuring the ASX 200 gold stock

When analysing share price moves among ASX 200 gold stocks, the first point of call is the gold price.

The yellow metal slipped 0.1% overnight to trade for US$2,313.96 per ounce, down from highs north of US$2,425 per ounce on 20 May. But the gold price remains up more than 14% in 2024, with most analysts forecasting further gains ahead.

So, that’s unlikely to be why the ASX 200 gold stock is underperforming today.

That underperformance is more likely linked to the miner’s market update.

This morning, Evolution Mining reported that its June quarter gold production had taken a hit from inclement weather and earthquakes.

According to the release:

The Cowal and Mt Rawdon operations have been impacted by continued high levels of rainfall. Restrictions to open-pit operations at Cowal and Mt Rawdon have necessitated the processing of lower grade stockpile ore at various stages during the past two months to maintain full processing feed rates.

Management said the rain had not impacted the underground operations at Cowal. The planned ramp-up would continue at the mine following the successful commencement of commercial production in April.

As for those earthquakes hampering the ASX 200 gold stock, the company said:

Material handling systems at Red Lake have been disrupted by localised seismic events at the Balmer and Cochenour areas. Mining rates have improved materially this quarter and there is a high level of mined ore available underground but haulage rates available via alternative systems have lowered near-term capacity

All told, the net impact of the heavy rains and earthquakes on Evolution’s gold production quarter to the end of May is around 26,000 ounces.

On the plus side of the ledger, the company reported that “significantly higher cash flow” had delivered a current cash balance of more than $320 million.

That works out to a quarter-to-date cash flow of some $145 million. And that’s after Evolution Mining paid its FY 2024 interim dividend, which totalled around $40 million.

Evolution Mining share price snapshot

Despite today’s dip, the Evolution Mining share price remains up 11% since this time last year.

The ASX 200 gold stock has gained 29% since the market close on 28 February.

The post Up 29% since February, why is this ASX 200 gold stock tumbling today? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Why Arafura Rare Earths, Bigtincan, Evolution Mining, and Galileo Mining shares are dropping
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Tuesday
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday
• Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Today, I want to offer you a chance to make a guaranteed 60% return.

At least, apparently that’s what I want to offer you.

Huh?

Yeah, it was a surprise to me, too. I’ve never before offered a 60% return, let alone a guaranteed one.

Why would I start doing it now?

Spoiler alert: I didn’t, don’t, and won’t.

And yet, that’s apparently what I’m doing… if you believe the social media scams I’ve seen around the place.

See, unfortunately, I have the dubious honour of having my face and name (and video) used by scammers to try to trick users into sending them money.

Which… sucks.

I’m not alone, by the way. David Koch has long been used in scams like this. So have other well-known celebrities.

The worst thing? I can’t do a bloody thing about it. Yes, I report the ads when I see them. So does our team. But they’re everywhere. And don’t see all of them (very few, actually).

So while people are out there, pretending to be me, I can’t stop it happening.

I can’t stop people being scammed. I can’t stop people losing money.

And while it’s not my fault, there’s something just awful about knowing it’s my name and face that’s being used to do it.

If there’s one small ray of light, it’s that the scammers have overdubbed my video with an accent that is… not mine.

But, given the surge of AI capacity, that small glitch won’t be there for long. At some point in the not-too-distant future, the scam will be so good that even my own mother won’t be able to tell the difference.

Yes, AI and social media are wonderful in so many ways. But they have serious drawbacks, including this one.

And while this one is very personal, as I said, I’m not the first, or even the highest profile (by a long way!) person to be used in this way – and I won’t be the last.

Still, given the money at stake, and the fact that I do work for a financial services company, I wanted to put very clearly on the record that it’s not me… and to beseech you to be extraordinarily careful.

Perhaps worse, many of the people who might get sucked in by this stuff won’t actually read this piece. And I have no way of helping them.

Turns out AI can create some wonderful (and awful) things, but the world’s social media giants don’t seem to be able to use the technology to identify potential scams…

And no, this isn’t my first rodeo – the other, longer-standing scam is where people use my name and copy my social media posts to a fake account, pretending to be me. That one’s still going, too.

I wish there was more I could do about it. The best I can do is warn you. And ask you to warn others. And I can publish this, so that if anyone searches for more detail, they’ll hopefully find this article.

Other than that? Well, I feel pretty helpless, knowing these bastards are going to get money from people who see my name and image and figure they can trust the scam.

So, to be clear:

I will never offer you a guaranteed return.

I’ll never offer you anything so outlandish as a 60% return – guaranteed or otherwise.

I will never invite you to a private WhatsApp group.

I will never offer you bitcoin.

I will never DM you with a special offer or investment opportunity.

And you’ll find me on Twitter and Instagram only at @TMFScottP, and Facebook only at /scottphillipsmoney.

The Motley Fool’s Australian accounts are @themotleyfoolau and /themotleyfoolaustralia.

Can I also ask a small favour? If you see them, and you have some time, would you mind hitting the ‘report’ button on the scam posts when they pop up? It’ll help us get them pulled down and minimise the chance that someone else gets scammed!

Lastly, as my old man used to say, if it seems too good to be true, it probably is. And, as Sergeant Phil Esterhaus used to say in Hill Street Blues… let’s be careful out there.

(If there’s an investment take-away, it’s probably that anything that looks too good to be true, probably is, too. Don’t be cynical, but do be sceptical. Make sure you’re getting your information from credible sources, and that you don’t swallow everything you’re being told. Trust, but verify. And diversify, just in case.)

Fool on!

The post Do you want a guaranteed 60% return? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Up 29% since February, why is this ASX 200 gold stock tumbling today?
• Who is investing in the Guzman y Gomez IPO?
• Why I just bagged $3,500 of this money-printing ASX stock
• Why did this ASX AI stock just crash 21%?
• Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today

Motley Fool contributor Scott Phillips has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Bitcoin. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The Mexican food business Guzman y Gomez (GYG) plans to list on the ASX next week with an initial public offering (IPO). Multiple institutions are already planning to buy the company’s shares.

Burritos, tacos and enchiladas may not seem like the most exciting product category, but Guzman y Gomez has spicy growth plans, and investors are lining up to take part in its growth journey.

We’ve seen a number of local and global players become much bigger companies after listing, including Yum! Brands, McDonald’s, Chipotle, Domino’s Pizza Enterprises Ltd (ASX: DMP) and Collins Foods Ltd (ASX: CKF). Guzman y Gomez itself has international growth plans, with a small presence in Asia and the United States.

Of course, the success of those other businesses doesn’t automatically mean Guzman y Gomez is going to do as well. But, food for thought.

Significant backers

The main proceeds of the offer will be used to fund GYG’s growth strategy over the coming years, which is primarily focused on the significant expansion of its corporate restaurant network in Australia.

Guzman y Gomez revealed it has received considerable support and demand from existing shareholders, including Aware Super, Cooper Investors, Hyperion Asset Management, Firetrail Investments and QVG Capital.

GYG’s other existing large institutional shareholders — TDM Growth Partners and Barrenjoey Private Capital — will retain significant holdings in the company after the IPO.  

Last week, Guzman y Gomez announced it had received a commitment from funds advised by Capital Research Global investors to subscribe for shares at the offer price. TDM Growth Partners is selling more shares to accommodate the investment relating to Capital Research Global, but TDM will still own 26.2% of GYG.

Will the leadership still own shares?

According to Guzman y Gomez, the board, senior management, and existing substantial shareholders (including TDM) will still own approximately 59% of GYG shares after the IPO.

A number of management and board figures plan to own shares at the GYG IPO’s completion. I will highlight a select few below.

• Guy Russo, the non-executive chair, who was previously the CEO of McDonald’s Australia and managing director of Kmart Australia and New Zealand, is expected to own 6.08 million GYG shares at IPO completion.
• Steven Marks, founder, executive director and co-CEO of Guzman y Gomez, will own 8.8 million shares at IPO completion.
• Hilton Brett, co-CEO and executive director, will own 367,000 shares.
• Bruce Buchanan, an independent non-executive director since August 2016, will own 418,250 shares.

Once the business is listed, Guy Russo and Steven Marks will own well over $100 million of GYG shares.

Foolish takeaway

Guzman y Gomez expects to open 30 new restaurants in FY25. Management believes the company has substantially built the team, restaurant pipeline and infrastructure to increase this to 40 restaurants per annum within five years, with a focus on drive-through restaurants due to their potential to deliver superior restaurant economics.

Time will tell whether the business is able to deliver on its ambitious targets.

The post Who is investing in the Guzman y Gomez IPO? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Up 29% since February, why is this ASX 200 gold stock tumbling today?
• Do you want a guaranteed 60% return?
• Why I just bagged $3,500 of this money-printing ASX stock
• Why did this ASX AI stock just crash 21%?
• Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has positions in Collins Foods. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Chipotle Mexican Grill and Domino’s Pizza Enterprises. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Chipotle Mexican Grill, Collins Foods, and Domino’s Pizza Enterprises. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Sometimes, the one that got away gives you a second chance. Leaping 20% during the three weeks after I named it my top ASX stock pick to buy in May, chances of adding this terrific company to my portfolio at a fair price were quickly vanishing.

See, Aristocrat Leisure Limited (ASX: ALL) released its first-half results two weeks later, and boy, was it a good one. Net profits were up nearly 17% from the prior corresponding period, the interim dividend lifted by 20%, and a further $350 million in on-market share buybacks.

Yet, the pokie machine maker’s share price began retreating following the result. Between 21 May and 29 May, Aristocrat Leisure shares weakened 7.3%. On 29 May, I wasted no time, buying approximately $3,500 as a starter position in this ASX stock.

So, why did I buy Aristocrat Leisure shares?

The numbers are hard to ignore

Checking a company’s fundamentals is sort of like reviewing a person’s vital signs. A lot can be learned from these basic measures. The following figures are what initially caught my attention, prompting an interest in this dominant gaming business:

• Free cash flow yield of 4.5%
• Return on equity of 20%
• Compounded revenue growth of 18.8% over the last 12 years
• Compounded net earnings growth of 23.5% over the last 12 years
• Net cash position of $397 million
• Relatively low dividend payout ratio of 30%
• Net income margin of 23.3%

The vital signs indicate a fighting-fit company. Indeed, Aristocrat Leisure is regarded as one of the best in the business. Yet, it’s not supremely valued the way other quality companies are.

If I were to guess, I think the undemanding valuation boils down to a few possible reasons:

• Concerns of slot machine relevancy among digital-first demographics
• Staying ahead in a competitive landscape; and
• Being a somewhat controversial industry

In my opinion, this ASX stock is bulldozing the first two issues. Aristocrat is involved in both old-school pokies and app-based slot machines. Secondly, many of the company’s games are some of the most enjoyed pokies on the market: Dragon Link, Dollar Storm, Lightning Link, and Buffalo slots.

ASX stock still not without risk

There is the elephant in the room. Aristocrat Leisure operates in a heavily regulated industry and is exposed to scrutiny because of it.

Last year, Victoria introduced restrictions on operating hours, money limits, and spin rates. Any limitation on gaming risks Aristocrat’s future growth and profitability. This is the price of admission for an ASX stock like Aristocrat Leisure.

A gold mine for AI

People often refer to Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ: NVDA) as the picks-and-shovels play to the artificial intelligence gold rush. However, I see the chip company as akin to the leaching solution that extracts the valuable gold from the raw material.

The real picks and shovels are the businesses capable of harvesting the raw material to feed into AI. Data is as good as gold to casinos because it can help inform profit-optimising decisions. As such, I think pokies will increasingly be viewed as a gateway into a treasure chest of information.

If Aristocrat can be the conduit for data capture, the added value could boost margins further. I doubt many (if any) analysts are factoring this into their long-term valuations for this ASX stock.

The post Why I just bagged $3,500 of this money-printing ASX stock appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 3 ASX 200 tech stocks that smashed the market in May
• Wilsons gives its verdict on Webjet and these popular ASX 200 stocks
• Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today
• Buy ‘one of the highest quality’ growth shares on the ASX 200
• 4 ASX growth shares to buy to supercharge your portfolio in June

Motley Fool contributor Mitchell Lawler has positions in Aristocrat Leisure. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Nvidia. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Despite the phenomenal success of generative artificial intelligence chip maker Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA), it’s been a mixed bag for ASX AI stocks so far in 2024.

Turning our eyes to today’s action, Bigtincan Holdings Ltd (ASX: BTH), which provides AI-powered sales enablement automation platforms, is taking a beating.

Bigtincan shares closed last Friday trading for 14 cents apiece. The stock then entered a trading halt pending today’s announcement on the outcome of the institutional component of the company’s capital raising.

Investors responded by sending the ASX AI stock crashing 21.4% to 11 cents a share in the first half hour of trade.

Trading in Bigtincan shares was then paused once more pending a further announcement.

That announcement was released just after noon AEST today.

Here’s what’s happening.

ASX AI stock smashed on dilutive capital raising

Yesterday, when Bigtincan shares were in a trading halt, the company announced it was conducting a $20.5 million equity raising to support its ongoing operations and growth plans.

The ASX AI stock came under heavy selling pressure when trading resumed this morning. That’s because Bigtincan is conducting the fully underwritten 1 for 3 accelerated pro rata non-renounceable entitlement offer at an offer price of 10 cents per share. Or almost 29% below Friday’s closing price.

Management said the new funds will be invested in “core AI technology, data infrastructure related to provisioning of its GeneiAI technology, market awareness and development, working capital and transaction costs”.

Today, Bigtincan reported the successful completion of the institutional component of the offer had raised around $10.0 million. This saw some 100.3 million new shares being issued.

The retail component of the ASX AI stock’s capital raise opened this morning and is expected to bring in another $10.5 million before costs. That offer is also at 10 cents per share, which is adding to the selling pressure.

What else is happening with Bigtincan shares?

On Tuesday, the ASX AI stock also reported that it had received a confidential, non-binding, incomplete and indicative offer from Vector Capital Management at an indicative offer price of 25 cents per share.

That would represent an almost 79% upside from Friday’s closing price and is more than 127% above this morning’s share price.

The Bigtincan board noted it would “continue to carefully consider any proposals that maximise shareholder value”. They added, “There is no certainty that any such proposals will lead to a transaction.”

Indeed.

In intraday trade today, Bigtincan released yet another price-sensitive announcement.

The company reported:

This morning, Bigtincan received a letter from Vector formally withdrawing its previous non-binding indicative proposal and has requested ongoing engagement with the company with a view to a new offer that could be submitted based on those engagements.

The ASX AI stock again resumed trading following the announcement. And it’s made up some lost ground.

At the time of writing, the Bigtincan share price is down 14.3% at 12 cents a share.

The post Why did this ASX AI stock just crash 21%? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Why Arafura Rare Earths, Bigtincan, Evolution Mining, and Galileo Mining shares are dropping

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Bigtincan and Nvidia. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Many of Australia’s top brokers have been busy adjusting their financial models and recommendations again. This has led to the release of a number of broker notes this week.

Three ASX shares that brokers have named as buys this week are listed below. Here’s why their analysts are feeling bullish on them right now:

Aussie Broadband Ltd (ASX: ABB)

According to a note out of Ord Minnett, its analysts have upgraded this broadband provider’s shares to a buy rating with an unchanged price target of $4.20. The broker was pleased to see the company increase its earnings guidance for FY 2024 last month. It also highlights that Aussie Broadband has been winning market share from rivals. The good news is that Ord Minnett feels that this trend can continue after its largest rival, Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS), announced price increases for its own broadband plans. The Aussie Broadband share price is trading at $3.52 on Wednesday afternoon.

QBE Insurance Group Ltd (ASX: QBE)

A note out of Goldman Sachs reveals that its analysts have retained their buy rating and $20.90 price target on this insurance giant’s shares. The broker highlights that QBE’s management has recently held a number of investor meetings. It notes that management conveyed greater confidence on the delivery of its 95% combined operating ratio (COR) in North America by 2025. As a reminder, the lower the COR, the more profitable QBE’s operations are. In light of these investor meetings, Goldman believes that there is now upside risk to the FY 2025 consensus COR of 92.8%. In fact, it sees under 92.5% as possible, reflecting an improvement from North America, a North America non-core run off, and organic trends. The QBE share price is fetching $18.52 today.

Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS)

Analysts at Macquarie have upgraded this energy giant’s shares to an outperform rating with an unchanged price target of $32.00. According to the note, the broker made the move largely on valuation grounds. Its analysts believe that Woodside’s shares are trading meaningfully lower than their intrinsic value based on its estimate of a long-term oil price of US$65 a barrel. In fact, the broker feels that the market is valuing its shares on the equivalent of a US$56 a barrel long term oil price. And given that Macquarie’s own estimate is below consensus forecasts, it believes this is unwarranted. Even after factoring in project and climate risks. The Woodside share price is trading at $27.81 on Wednesday.

The post Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Why Bapcor, Botanix, Judo Capital, and Woodside shares are rising today
• These 3 ASX 200 shares were just rerated by top brokers
• Why analysts love Woodside and these ASX blue chip shares
• Goldman Sachs says these 3 ASX dividend shares are buys
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Woodside Energy Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Aussie Broadband, Goldman Sachs Group, and Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group and Telstra Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Aussie Broadband. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

ASX 200 shares have hit turbulence midway through the year. The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has slipped nearly half a per cent into the red this past month.

Medibank Private Ltd (ASX: MPL) and NIB Holdings Ltd (ASX: NHF) are two companies on the coverage list for investment bank Goldman Sachs. The broker recently completed a head-to-head comparison of both ASX 200 shares.

With both shares in the spotlight recently, should you buy, hold, or sell? Here’s what Goldman Sachs thinks.

Broker neutral on this ASX 200 share

Medibank shares have climbed almost 5% in the past six months. Goldman Sachs, however, sees limited upside from here.

The broker reaffirmed its neutral rating and a price target of $3.70 in a recent note. It rated the insurer a hold due to its “relatively weaker policyholder growth” versus competitors, its valuation, and “some risk related to cyber security legal cases and investigations”.

It added:

Key downside risks include: 1) Lower approved premium rate increases impacting margins, 2) Slower than expected resident policyholder growth, 3) Impact of cyber security legal case and associated costs, 4) Return of claims inflation through normalizing utilisation and broader catchup on claims.

Despite this, the broker likes the ASX 200 insurance share’s defensive earnings and favourable operating conditions. It also is positive on the “manageable claims environment and strong recovery in non-resident volumes”, the note says.

Medibank shares are down 0.27%, trading at $3.71 at the time of publication.

NIB Holdings: The preferred pick

Goldman Sachs prefers NIB Holdings, its analysis says. It rates the ASX 200 share a buy with a price target of $8.10 per share, suggesting around 8.5% return potential over the next 12 months. Including projected dividends, this increases to around 13.5% total return.

The broker said it was bullish on NIB given five key tailwinds that could see the business grow in FY 2025. One of these includes the exposure to Australia’s private health insurance sector, currently experiencing “favourable operating trends”, it noted.

We currently have a preference for NHF in this space reflecting strong underlying top line growth through policyholder growth and premium rate increases, greater diversity of earnings outside of regulated resident health insurance and valuation appeal.

Analysts also mentioned that NIB has improved its reserve position compared to the pandemic era, and that rate increases of 4.1% this year can “fund claims inflation of perhaps 3.6%”. This, it says, can offset a slowdown in premium volumes and provide a buffer to operating margins.

It also mentioned that NIB’s policyholder growth “has been better than industry”.

When comparing the two companies head-to-head, Goldman stated it liked NIB, given “MPL’s relatively weaker policyholder growth.”

Foolish takeaway

Goldman Sachs has a split view on these ASX 200 shares. On one hand, Medibank’s current valuation suggests holding rather than buying. In contrast, Goldman says NIB Holdings, with its growth prospects and attractive valuation, stands out as a top buy.

The post Buy or hold? Top broker rates these 2 ASX 200 shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Medibank shares dip as huge potential fines loom from 2022 data breach
• What is Goldman Sachs saying about Medibank shares in June?
• Overinvested in CBA shares? Here are two alternative ASX dividend stocks
• Here’s how I’d target a $2,000 second income by investing $35 a week
• Brokers say these ASX dividend shares are top buys now

Motley Fool contributor Zach Bristow has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended NIB Holdings. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.