• The threat of a conflict over Taiwan has put the spotlight on the US and Chinese navies.
• The US Navy has been shrinking, meaning China's is now the world's largest.
• A major decline in US shipbuilding capacity could be a problem in the future, analysts say.

The oceans are once again becoming a key geopolitical battleground.

In the Indo-Pacific, the aggressive shadow of China is growing. Meanwhile, sea-based drone warfare in the Black Sea between Russia and Ukraine and the Houthi rebels' disruption of commercial shipping in the Red Sea have become conflict hot spots.

"It's the end of the pacifist period on the seas," Dr Steven Wills of the Center for Maritime Strategy, told Business Insider.

The US fleet is still widely considered the world's most powerful navy due to its 11 aircraft carriers and cutting-edge nuclear submarine capabilities.

However, while maritime pressures have increased, US shipbuilding has stagnated.

"In the early 1990s, the Navy had over 500 ships. But over the course of the 2000s and 2010s, there was a failure to properly follow up naval deployments with enough time for refit, repair, and rest," Wills explained.

As subsidies and funding for maritime infrastructure were cut in the post-Cold War period, industry capabilities slowed. That was compounded by a series of costly shipbuilding blunders.

"The US Navy was really rudderless. They didn't have an idea what it wanted to do," Wills said.

The fleet is now down to just under 300 ships.

Doug Livermore, who until recently was a senior intelligence officer and director of sensitive activities and special operations in the Navy, admits it's "not as robust of a ramp-up as it should be."

In the latest budget released in March, plans for seven new Arleigh Burke-class destroyers were reduced to six. Just one rather than two Virginia-class nuclear-powered attack submarines will be added, while 19 ships will be decommissioned.

"They're scrapping more ships than they're building, which means the US Navy is on a downward trajectory, not an upward trajectory," said Dr Salvatore Mercogliano, a maritime historian at Campbell University.

China outpacing the US

China has overtaken the US Navy in numerical terms with about 370 vessels, according to the Pentagon's 2023 China Military Power Report.

It will grow to be at least 50% larger than America's by 2035, a retired admiral projected in the US Naval Institute's professional journal.

Submarines, which have historically given the US primacy over the sea, are a high priority for the People's Liberation Army Navy.

China operates 60 submarines, according to the Pentagon's latest estimates. That number is expected to rise to 80 by 2035, despite the ongoing retirement of older hulls. Most of its submarines are diesel-powered, but it also has nuclear-powered attack and ballistic missile submarines that have higher speeds and longer ranges.

The US operates 67 submarines, but not all are in the Pacific.

China's navy is still not as technologically advanced, only has two aircraft carriers, and the fleet has minimal active experience, but Livermore says the pace of expansion remains a concern.

"In the early 2000s, the Chinese navy had nothing that could rival US vessels. They were primarily diesel-powered submarines, a few old and loud nuclear-powered submarines. The speed of development is worrying," he said.

Quantity vs quality

The numbers only tell one part of the story, however. Despite its smaller size compared with China, the US Navy is still widely regarded as the world's most powerful.

In 2020, then Secretary of Defense Mark Esper said that even if the US stopped building ships, it would take years for China to match the US Navy's power due to its technological capabilities and expertise.

"Ship numbers are important, but they don't tell the whole story," he said.

Another piece of the puzzle is shipbuilding capacity. China is the world's largest shipbuilder. It could use its manufacturing capacity to rapidly build more ships in wartime.

Chinese shipyards have a capacity of about 23.2 million tons, compared to the US' capacity of less than 100,000 tons, according to figures from the US Office of Naval Intelligence that emerged last year.

David Sacks, fellow for Asia studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, told BI: "One of China's largest shipyards has more capacity than all US shipyards combined. We have to maintain ships as well as obviously build new platforms, and we don't have the workers or the facilities to do that."

Peacetime footing

Gone are the days when merchant ships were built in bulk in the US, capacities that America used to expand its fleet by more than 15 times in World War II. In an extended war, China is poised to rapidly build this kind of vast fleet — a capacity the US lacks.

Instead, the US defense industrial base still finds itself on a post-Cold War peacetime footing, analysts told BI.

Expanding American shipbuilding capacity ought to start now, Wills said: "You don't make the arsenal of democracy overnight."

"The composition of the Navy is a long-term issue. If you want to start changing force structure, it takes time," Mercogliano said.

But given that Japan and South Korea now dominate commercial shipbuilding, some doubt whether this is a realistic or viable option.

That could have consequences in wartime. "It would be very hard to rapidly ramp up and replace battlefield losses just given the current state of the industry," Wills said. "That's not the industry's fault — they can only operate based on what the government gives them."

Taiwan tensions

Rising tensions over Taiwan are another reason some are questioning the size and shape of the US fleet.

Taiwan has been self-governed since 1949, but China sees it as a breakaway province that should be under its control.

While there have been no official signals about a looming conflict with Taiwan, China's leader Xi Jinping has said that he believes unification is inevitable and has refused to rule out using force to achieve that goal.

As a democratic ally in the region and home to a leading AI chipmaker in the form of TSMC, securing Taiwan's freedom is a key strategic and economic goal for the US.

Last month, the commander for the Indo-Pacific told lawmakers that Beijing would be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027.

If that ever happens, analysts fear the US Navy could find itself on the back foot.

The Council of Foreign Relations' Sacks pointed to a 2023 CSIS report that said the US would run out of many key munitions for a conflict over Taiwan within the first two weeks.

China's home advantage would also be significant, said Wills. "They're fighting a local game in their backyard whereas the US and everybody else, except Japan, is waging an away game. There are long logistics needed to make that happen."

"I think there ought to be a greater level of urgency here. I'm not seeing it," he added.

Countering Chinese aggression in the Indo-Pacific took center stage this week at the first-ever trilateral meeting between the US, Japan, and the Philippines.

The US announced more than $1 billion worth of private sector investment in chips and infrastructure to support the region and said security cooperation in the South China Sea had increased to "historic levels."

In the week leading to the summit, the three countries and Australia held their first joint maritime military exercises in a further show of unity.

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• The Uncommitted movement includes a broad swath of Democratic voters upset with Biden over Israel.
• But Arab and Muslim Americans — particularly in Dearborn, Michigan — have been leading the movement.
• For the first time, these voters could play a decisive role in a presidential election.

Abdullah Hammoud was not elected to be a spokesperson for a national political movement.

The 34-year-old mayor of Dearborn, Michigan took office in 2022 after a campaign focused on the nuts and bolts of local government: lowering property taxes, improving city services, and strengthening public safety.

But Dearborn isn't like other cities. A majority of its more than 100,000 residents are Arab Americans, and the city and its environs are home to the largest Muslim population in the United States.

Not coincidentally, it's also the birthplace of the Uncommitted movement, which is urging Democratic voters to cast "uncommitted" ballots to protest President Joe Biden's ongoing support for Israel. Movement leaders are demanding a permanent cease-fire in Gaza and an end to US military support for Israel in exchange for their votes this November.

Dearborn is also one of the few places in the country — along with Dearborn Heights and Hamtramck, two nearby townships that similarly boast large Arab American populations — where the movement has garnered an electoral majority: 56.2% of Dearborn voters cast "uncommitted" ballots on February 27.

When I spoke with Hammoud during my trip to Michigan last month, he was eager to point out that the movement extends well beyond Arab and Muslim Americans.

"I think the media tends to overlook how multiracial, multigenerational, multifaith, multi-ethnic the movement turned out to be," he said. "It downplays the issue of Gaza as solely an Arab and Muslim issue."

Layla Elabed and Abbas Alawieh, two leaders of the "Uncommitted National Movement," made the same point. After all, the vast majority of the more than 100,000 "uncommitted" votes cast in the Michigan primary didn't come from Dearborn. The movement registered more than 10% of the vote in the vast majority of Michigan's 83 counties, with particularly strong showings in university towns like Ann Arbor.

"If Layla and I were to walk into some of the counties where we earned more than 10% of the vote, the percentage of Arabs and Muslims in that county would go up by 200%," Alawieh quipped.

It's an understandable tack for them to take. If the movement were made up solely of Arab and Muslim Americans, then perhaps Biden could afford to just write the community off and hope to garner enough former Nikki Haley supporters to make up the difference.

Yet it's undeniable that the Uncommitted movement represents something new: the emergence of Arab and Muslim Americans as the leaders of a decisive voting bloc in a presidential election.

While these voters have been dependable members of the Democratic coalition in recent years, owing in large part to former President Donald Trump's policies, the ongoing death and destruction in Gaza is driving movement leaders to change course and explicitly leverage their growing political clout.

"Our community has never had this much power and leverage," said Alawieh. "Part of the reason why our power is growing is because we are stepping into the power of our expertise as people who have been most harmed by pro-war US foreign policy."

While the issue of Gaza — where over 33,000 Palestinians have been killed since October 7, and where hundreds of thousands more have endured displacement and looming famine — is likely top of mind for these voters, the movement also provides an avenue to express other frustrations with the political system.

"It might be the driving force behind the movement, but it's much bigger than Palestine," said Lexis Zeidan, another Uncommitted movement leader. "We can fund war, but not reinvest in our communities here?"

All of this is despite the community's cleared-eyed view of what a second Trump presidency could mean, including an even more deferential relationship with Israel's hard-right government and a potential revival of the "Muslim Ban."

'An existential knowledge that's not with anybody else'

By virtue of its large Arab and Muslim population, Dearborn is one of the most unique places in America — all the more so during the holy month of Ramadan, when the city is relatively sleepy during the day, only to bustle with energy at night.

Immigration from the Arab world began in earnest in the 1920s, when many came for jobs in the burgeoning automotive industry. That existing community then became a magnet for further waves of immigration, particularly in the 1960s and 1990s.

Among Dearborn's Arab residents are Palestinian Americans, like Elabed and Zeidan, who may have relatives facing dire conditions in Gaza. Others are Lebanese Americans, like Alawieh and Hammoud, whose families have experienced Israeli occupation. There are also Iraqis, Yemenis, Syrians, and Egyptians who have faced the consequences of America's foreign policy in the Middle East in a way that others simply have not. The city is represented by Elabed's older sister, Rep. Rashida Tlaib, who is the sole Palestinian American in Congress and arguably its strongest critic of Biden's ongoing support for Israel.

"We have an existential knowledge that's not with anybody else," said Hammoud, referring to his city's residents. "We can tell you exactly how the villages are shaped because we've driven those roads. We've shopped at those markets. We have phone calls with people there as frequently as we have phone calls with our family members here."

But while the Arab American community is particularly concentrated in the Detroit area, with implications for 2024 in a closely-watched swing state, there are plenty of Arab American voters scattered in competitive states around the country. The Arab American Institute estimates that there are 206,000 such voters in Florida, 134,000 in Virginia, and 126,000 in Pennsylvania.

"Michigan is a bellwether for what will happen elsewhere," said James Zogby, the president of the institute. "It's a canary in the coal mine for other states."

But the key to the movement's ongoing success has been coalition-building with other communities, including African American voters, young voters, and progressive Jewish voters.

"Thirty-six times in the Torah, it says in one way or another, love the stranger as yourself, treat the other as you want to be treated," said former Rep. Andy Levin, a prominent progressive Jewish backer of the Uncommitted movement in Michigan. "If you want to be a serious person of faith, who's our most important other? Duh, it's the Palestinian people."

'The Uncommitted campaign of the 80s'

Zogby, who's been active in Democratic politics for decades, sees the Uncommitted movement as the second major wave of Arab American political organizing.

The first wave, in his telling, took place over the course of the 1980s, when he served as deputy campaign manager for Jesse Jackson's 1984 presidential campaign. Both that year and in 1988, Jackson explicitly courted Arab American votes and spoke openly about Palestinian rights. In 1988, amid the First Intifada, organizers passed pro-Palestinian resolutions at 11 state Democratic party conventions — not unlike the cease-fire resolutions that have passed in over 100 municipalities across the country since October 7.

"It was the Uncommitted campaign of the 80s," said Zogby. After founding the Arab American Institute in Washington, DC in 1985, he and others worked in the intervening decades to build up Arab American power. Much of that work included registering voters and raising political consciousness in places like Dearborn, where non-Arab mayors had at times sought to fearmonger about the growing Arab American population.

That work also took place against the backdrop of the post-9/11 era, when Arabs and Muslims in the US faced discrimination and political marginalization after the September 11, 2001 terror attacks. That marginalization persists, albeit in a lesser form, to this day; in February, a Wall Street Journal opinion writer described Dearborn as "America's Jihad Capital," prompting Mayor Hammoud to announce increased security measures in the city.

Decades of organizing created the conditions for what's emerged today — a voting bloc that not only poses a possible threat to Biden's reelection, but that in recent months has rejected what leaders view as political pandering.

Indeed, while organizers have been clear that they're seeking specific policy changes from Biden, there's been a perception that an increasingly nervous presidential campaign has merely been making a play for votes. And there have been prominent missteps by Biden's administration and campaign, including a White House statement marking 100 days since October 7 that made no mention of the tens of thousands of Palestinians who had died.

Yet even amid those missteps — interpreted often as disrespect – there's a sense of empowerment that comes with holding the fate of the election in your hands.

"People understand that the Michigan Muslim and Arab community is large enough," said Hammoud, "maybe not to elect a president, but maybe to make one lose."

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• Millennial Eliza Green avoided cruises because she felt they were germ-riddled and full of kids.
• A friend suggested a surprise cruise on Virgin's child-free ship and Green apprehensively agreed. 
• She loved the ship experience with sizeable rooms and fun activities, but the pace of travel was too quick. 

This is an as-told-to essay based on a transcribed conversation with millennial Eliza Green, who took her first cruise vacation on Virgin Voyages. The conversation has been edited for length and clarity.

I always thought cruise ships were a place to pick up germs from people, especially children. I'd heard nightmare stories of people getting sick, overcrowding, and bad food. But when friends approached my husband and me to go for a 40th birthday, I was willing to try.

My frequent cruise traveler friend gave us a couple of options. Virgin Voyages sounded particularly appealing. The rooms were affordable, with balconies and no children. Plus, the five-night length felt manageable as a first-time cruiser.

In October 2023, my husband, two other couples, and I embarked on Virgin Voyage's Scarlet Lady Dominican Daze. We set off from the port in Miami for two stops in Puerto Plata in the Dominican Republic and Bimini, Bahamas. For lodging and food for two, it cost $3,234.

Still skeptical, I went in with little expectations and just the hope of having a good time with friends.

Cruise food was better than an all-inclusive resort

The food was a pleasant surprise, far better than the buffet options I'd imagined on other cruises. This was our first cruise, but it was our second all-inclusive-style vacation. Compared to the all-inclusive resort in Jamaica, the cruise had a wider variety of cuisines.

For a ship that had to serve thousands, the level of food and choices exceeded my expectations. I never ate the same meal twice. The ease of dining was seamless. Food was included in our prepaid rate, so we didn't have to take out our wallets during mealtime or show our cruise wristband.

There were sit-down restaurants, grab-and-go stations, and dining hall-style venues. We made reservations before our trip since we had a large group and the tables booked up quickly. However, you could walk into restaurants or book upon embarking on the ship through the app.

There were premium items for an extra cost, such as lobster or wagyu, but they were unneeded because there was already so much food provided. Although alcohol was an extra cost, the prepaid option gave us extra dollars toward drinks, which was a good value.

The cabin was a needed respite

Before traveling on a cruise, I'd heard of windowless cabins and cramped rooms. Throughout the journey, I enjoyed spending time in my room, which I hadn't expected.

I was also concerned about seasickness in a confined space on the water. I came prepared with motion sickness remedies, but it never hit me.

The room was sizable and nicer than many hotel rooms I have stayed in on land. The cabin felt huge compared to the hotel I'd stayed at in Miami before embarking on the ship.

We had a bed, seating, and ample closet space, as well as a decent bathroom. I never felt cramped or like I was stumbling around my husband.

As somewhat of an introvert, the room was a nice respite. When I wanted time to recharge, the hammock on the balcony was a great place to read and gave me an escape, making the trip more relaxing.

The entertainment wasn't cheesy like I expected

I hadn't planned to partake in much of the entertainment because I assumed it would be cheesy.

The quality of the shows and activities defied my expectations. We enjoyed a puzzle contest one night, and another night, when we stumbled upon an entertainment show; the performance was impressive and well-produced with polished performers.

Virgin did a nice job of giving every traveler their own experience despite being on the same ship.

The boat's layout made it so we didn't hear noise from the louder late-night parties, and they didn't detract from our vacation. I liked being able to spend time with our friends on the cruise and also seek out our own experiences.

High-tech amenities meant the service was great

All the offerings were shared in an app, which we could easily access onboard from our phones. The well-thought-out amenities, such as using a wristband for drinks and not having to show a room card for dinner, made it so we didn't have to think about anything. We truly felt like we were on vacation.

The bartending staff was friendly, and the service was impressive. Plus, the layout of the boat was easy to navigate. We took advantage of the laundry service for a small fee, as it was reasonable and made our trip more convenient.

In addition, the boat offered other amenities, such as a gym, gaming areas, spa, and shopping boutiques. They even had a tattoo parlor onboard and a medical-grade spa offering botox. Even though we didn't end up using these additional services, it was still nice to know they were available.

We could have spent longer at the destinations

Ironically, the destinations were the most disappointing part of our experience. The cruise made a stop in Puerto Plata and Bimini. Since they were around six hours each, including disembarking and embarking, we didn't get to experience as much of the culture as we would have liked.

That said, we enjoyed a pre-booked waterfall excursion in the Dominican Republic, which we paid for separately. Bimini felt like an extension of the cruise because we stopped at a Virgin-owned beach club for the day. It was fun, but we wish we could have seen more of the island culture.

Even despite that, we felt the cruise was a good value. The quality of the food and the room alone made it worth the investment. Plus, the boat was a great way to travel with friends. In the future, we would cruise again, especially if we could have more time at each stop to improve the experience.

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• Israel's reported use of AI in its war against Hamas is highlighting many of the problems concerning future warfare.
• Inaccuracy and lack of meaningful human oversight could lead to errors and tragedy. 
• There are military benefits to AI, but the tools to keep it in check aren't coming fast enough. 

Artificial intelligence is playing a key and, by some accounts, highly disturbing role in Israel's war in Gaza.

Recent investigative reports suggest the Israeli military let an AI program take the lead on targeting thousands of Hamas operatives in the early days of the fighting and may have played a part in rash and imprecise kills, rampant destruction, and thousands of civilian casualties. The IDF flatly rejects this assertion.

The reporting offers a terrifying glimpse into where warfare could be headed, experts told Business Insider, and a clear example of how bad things can get if humans take a back seat to new technology like AI, especially in life-or-death matters.

"It's been the central argument when we've been talking about autonomous systems, AI, and lethality in war," Mick Ryan, a retired Australian major general and strategist focusing on evolutions in warfare, told BI. "The decision to kill a human is a very big one."

Earlier this month, a joint investigation by +972 Magazine and Local Call revealed Israel's Defense Force had been using an AI program named "Lavender" to generate suspected Hamas targets on the Gaza Strip, citing interviews with six anonymous Israeli intelligence officers.

The report alleges the IDF heavily relied on Lavender and essentially treated its information on who to kill "as if it were a human decision," sources said. Once a Palestinian was linked to Hamas and their home was located, sources said, the IDF effectively rubber-stamped the machine decision, barely taking more than a few seconds to review it themselves.

The speed of Israel's targeting put little effort into trying to reduce the harm to civilians nearby, the joint investigation found.

Last fall, details of Israel's Gospel program came to light, revealing that the system took Israel's target generation ability from roughly 50 a year to more than 100 each day.

When asked about the report on Lavender, the IDF referred BI to a statement posted on X by IDF spokesperson Lt. Col. (S.) Nadav Shoshani, who wrote last week that "The IDF does not use AI systems that choose targets for attack. Any other claim shows lack of sufficient knowledge of IDF processes."

Shoshani characterized the system as a cross-checking database that "is designed to aid human analysis, not to replace it." But there are potential risks all the same.

Israel isn't the only country exploring the potential of AI in warfare, and this research is coupled with increasing focus on the use of unmanned systems, as the world is frequently seeing in Ukraine and elsewhere. In this space, anxieties over killer robots are no longer science fiction.

"Just as AI is becoming more commonplace in our work and personal lives, so too in our wars," Peter Singer, a future warfare expert at the New America think tank, told BI, explaining that "we are living through a new industrial revolution, and just like the last one with mechanization, our world is being transformed, both for better and for worse."

AI is developing faster than the tools to keep it in check

Experts said that Israel's reported use of Lavender raises a host of concerns that have long been at the heart of the debate on AI in future warfare.

Many countries, including the US, Russia, and China, have been prioritizing the implementation of AI programs into their militaries. The US' Project Maven, which has since 2017 made major strides to assist troops on-the-ground by sifting through overwhelming amounts of incoming data, is just one example.

The technology, however, has often developed at faster pace than governments can keep up.

According to Ryan, the general trend "is that technology and battlefield requirements are outstripping the consideration of the legal and ethical issues around the application of AI in warfare."

In other words, things are moving too quickly.

"There's just no way that current government and bureaucratic systems of policymaking around these things could keep up," Ryan said, adding that they may "never catch up."

Last November, many governments raised concerns at a United Nations conference that new laws were needed to govern the use of lethal autonomous programs, AI-driven machines involved in making decisions to kill human beings.

But some nations, particularly ones who are currently leading the way in developing and deploying these technologies, were reluctant to impose new restrictions. Namely, the US, Russia, and Israel all appeared particularly hesitant to support new international laws on the matter.

"Many militaries have said, 'Trust us, we'll be responsible with this technology,'" Paul Scharre, an autonomous weapons expert at the Center for New American Security, told BI. But many people are not likely to trust a lack of oversight, and the use of AI by some countries, such as Israel, doesn't give much confidence that militaries are always going to use the new technology responsibly.

A program such as Lavender, as it has been reported, doesn't sound like science fiction, Scharre said, and is very in line with how global militaries are aiming to use AI.

A military would be "going through this process of collecting information, analyzing it, making sense of it, and making the decisions about which targets to attack, whether they're people as part of some insurgent network or organization, or they could be military objectives like tanks or artillery pieces," he told BI.

The next step is moving all of that information into a targeting plan, linking it to specific weapons or platforms, and then actually acting on the plan.

It's time-consuming, and in Israel's case, there's likely been a desire to develop a lot of targets very quickly, Scharre said.

Experts have expressed concerns over the accuracy of such AI targeting programs. Israel's Lavender program reportedly pulls data from a variety of information channels, such as social media and phone usage, to determine targets.

In the +972 Magazine and Local Call report, sources say the program's 90% accuracy rate was deemed acceptable. The glaring issue there is the remaining 10%. That's a substantial number of errors given the scale of Israel's air war and the significant increase in available targets provided by AI.

And the AI is always learning, for better or for worse. With every use, these programs gain knowledge and experience that they then employ in future decision-making. With an accuracy rate of 90%, as the reporting indicates, Lavender's machine learning could be reinforcing both its correct and incorrect kills, Ryan told BI. "We just don't know," he said.

Letting AI do the decision-making in war

Future warfare could see AI working in tandem with humans to process vast amounts of data and suggest potential courses of action in the heat of battle. But there are several possibilities that could taint such a partnership.

The gathered data could be too much for humans to process or understand. If an AI program is processing massive amounts of information to make a list of possible targets, it could reach a point where humans are quickly overwhelmed and unable to meaningfully contribute to decision-making.

There's also the possibility of moving too quickly and making assumptions based on the data, which increases the likelihood that mistakes are made.

International Committee Red Cross Military and Armed Group Adviser Ruben Stewart and Legal Adviser Georgia Hinds wrote about such a problem back in October 2023.

"One touted military advantage of AI is the increase in tempo of decision-making it would give a user over their adversary. Increased tempo often creates additional risks to civilians, which is why techniques that reduce the tempo, such as 'tactical patience,' are employed to reduce civilian casualties," they said.

In the quest to move quickly, humans could take their hands off the wheel, trusting the AI with little oversight.

According to the +972 Magazine and Local Call report, AI-picked targets were only reviewed for about 20 seconds, typically just to ensure the potential kill was male, before a strike was authorized.

The recent reporting raises serious questions about to what extent a human being was "in the loop" during the decision-making process. According to Singer, it's also a potential "illustration of what is sometimes known as 'automation bias,'" which is a situation "where the human deludes themselves into thinking that because the machine provided the answer, it must be true."

"So while a human is 'in the loop,' they aren't doing the job that is assumed of them," Singer added.

Last October, UN Secretary-General António Guterres and the President of the International Committee of the Red Cross, Mirjana Spoljaric, made a joint call that militaries "must act now to preserve human control over the use of force" in combat.

"Human control must be retained in life and death decisions. The autonomous targeting of humans by machines is a moral line that we must not cross," they said. "Machines with the power and discretion to take lives without human involvement should be prohibited by international law."

But while there are risks, AI could have many military benefits, such as helping humans process a wide range of data and sources in order to allow them to make informed decisions, as well as survey a variety of options for how to handle situations.

A meaningful "human in the loop" cooperation could be useful, but at the end of the day, it comes down to the human holding up their end of such a relationship — in other words, retaining authority and control of the AI.

"For the entirety of human existence, we've been tool and machine users," Ryan, the retired major general, said. "We are the masters of machines, whether you're piloting aircraft, driving a ship or tank."

But with many of these new autonomous systems and algorithms, he said, militaries won't be using machines, but rather "partnering with them."

Many militaries aren't prepared for such a shift. As Ryan and Clint Hinote wrote in a War on the Rocks commentary earlier this year, "in the coming decade, military institutions may realize a situation where uncrewed systems outnumber humans."

At present, the tactics, training, and leadership models of military institutions are designed for military organizations that are primarily human, and those humans exercise close control of the machines," they wrote.

"Changing education and training to prepare humans for partnering with machines — not just using them — is a necessary but difficult cultural evolution," they said. But that remains a work in progress for many militaries.

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• The US expects Iran will carry out a number of strikes on Israel.
• President Joe Biden issued a warning to Iran, advising them against attacking.
• It comes after Israel killed Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp  officials in an airstrike in Syria.

The US expects Iran will carry out a number of strikes on Israel as tensions rise in the Middle East, a senior administration official and a source familiar with the intelligence said, per CNN.

One of the people said that US officials believe Iran could be readying as many as 100 cruise missiles for an attack, the report said. ABC News carried a similar report.

Both sources said Iran had been moving military assets, including drones and missiles, in preparation for a possible attack on the Jewish state.

It comes after Israel killed seven Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC) officials in an airstrike earlier this month.

"There is a real risk that Iranian-backed groups will intensify their targeting of US forces and Israel in response to this latest attack, leading to heightened escalations in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, and possibly Jordan," Haid Haid, a consulting fellow in the think tank Chatham House's Middle East and North Africa Programme said in a report.

On Friday, the Iran-backed militia Hezbollah fired 40 rockets into Israel from its Lebanon base, some of which were shot down by Israel's Iron Dome defenses, reports said.

President Joe Biden issued a simple but stark warning to Iran following the reports, saying: "Don't," while also warning that he expected an attack "sooner than later."

"We are devoted to the defense of Israel. We will support Israel," he added. "We will help defend Israel and Iran will not succeed."

The US has responded to the latest threat with plans to dispatch its warships, including the aircraft carrier the USS Dwight D Eisenhower, a cruiser, and two destroyers, closer to Israel, reports said.

Tensions between Israel and Iran have ramped up since Israel's military campaign in the Gaza Strip, following the October 7 terrorist attacks, when Hamas militants killed an estimated 1,200 people in Israel.

The Israeli counteroffensive has killed more than 32,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza's Hamas-run health ministry.

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• Kamala Harris has become the face of the Biden's campaign attacks on Trump's abortion rights record.
• Harris tore into Trump during a Friday rally in the battleground state of Arizona.
• The former president has tried to pivot away from the topic.

Vice President Kamala Harris is making sure abortion rights stay at the forefront of the 2024 campaign.

Harris repeatedly tore into former President Donald Trump during a Friday evening campaign appearance in Arizona, arguing that he is solely responsible for the state Supreme Court upholding an 1864 law that would outlaw virtually all abortions.

"Donald Trump is the architect of this healthcare crisis, that is not a fact that he hides," Harris said at a rally in Tucson. "In fact, he brags about it."

The vice president has long been outspoken in her advocacy for reproductive rights. She is the first president or vice president to visit an abortion clinic, an appearance that would have been unthinkable even a few years ago. Harris has also been holding a series of events since January focused on reproductive rights, though, unlike those past rallies, the Biden-Harris reelection campaign hosted Friday's event.

Unlike President Joe Biden, Harris doesn't seem to have the same compunction he does in talking about the issue. According to The New York Times, Harris even advocated for her appearance in Tucson, home to the University of Arizona, to focus on abortion rights instead of student debt before the state Supreme Court released its controversial 4-2 ruling.

Harris has consistently pushed her party on the issue. During the 2020 Democratic presidential run, then-Sen. Harris said states with a history of restricting abortion rights should be forced to get federal approval before enacting new laws. This system would have mirrored the preclearance requirements for voting laws under the Voting Rights Act of 1965. At the same time, Biden struggled before following the progressive push to end his decadeslong support for the Hyde Amendment, which restricts federal funding for abortion.

Separately from Harris, the Biden campaign has released multiple ads focused explicitly on abortion. The campaign also announced that it will spend seven figures in an ad blitz focused on abortion rights in Arizona. In a new ad, Biden looks directly at the camera, vowing to "fight like hell" for millions of Arizona women who lost their reproductive freedom after the Dobbs decision.

Republicans, including Trump, were quick to condemn the state court's decision but are still grappling with the political reality of the US Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade. The former president has repeatedly bragged about his role in appointing the three justices that provided the necessary margin for the high court to issue its landmark ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson.

Trump has unsuccessfully tried to pivot away from abortion.

Trump, of course, had no say in appointing any of the seven Arizona Supreme Court justices. All seven, including the one justice who recused himself from the case after his Facebook Post calling abortion "the greatest genocide known to man" resurfaced, were appointed by GOP governors. On Friday, before Harris' rally, Trump publicly pleaded for the Arizona legislature to repeal the 1864 law.

"The Supreme Court in Arizona went too far on their Abortion Ruling, enacting and approving an inappropriate Law from 1864," Trump wrote on Truth Social. "So now the Governor and the Arizona Legislature must use HEART, COMMON SENSE, and ACT IMMEDIATELY, to remedy what has happened."

Even before the Arizona ruling, the former president tried to wash his hands of the topic.

Trump said that the future of abortion rights should be determined at the state level either by legislation, at the ballot box, or a combination of both. His declaration left many questions unanswered, particularly given his shifting views.

Some political allies were also disappointed Trump no longer favored a nationwide abortion ban. Trump's White House supported legislation that would have banned abortions after 20 weeks of pregnancy, with exceptions in the case of rape, incest, or the life of the mother. On Friday, speaking alongside Speaker Mike Johnson, Trump said that he no longer needed to support a nationwide abortion ban since Roe was reversed.

"We broke Roe v. Wade, and we did something that nobody thought was possible — we gave it back to the states and the states are working very brilliantly, in some cases conservative and in some cases not conservative, but they are working and it's working the way it's supposed to," Trump said.

Harris referenced Trump's comments during her speech and said Americans shouldn't be gaslit into thinking that the former president wouldn't support a ban.

"Here is what a second Trump term looks like — more bans, more suffering, and less freedom," she said. "Just like he did in Arizona, he basically wants to take America back to the 1800s. But we are not going to let that happen."

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• More than six months after Hamas' Oct. 7 massacre, Israel is still fighting the militants in Gaza.
• The IDF has managed to kill some of Hamas' top commanders, but it continues to hunt down others.
• These individuals are likely hiding underground, a top White House official said last month.

More than six months into its war in Gaza, Israel has little to show for its efforts. It has been unable to kill or capture the most senior members of Hamas' leadership, and its scorched-earth offensive has left a trail of death and destruction in its wake.

Israel's inability thus far to eliminate the top Hamas commanders it wants most is complicating ones of its stated war aims: crushing the militant group. Officials have said that the devastating war — triggered by Hamas' Oct. 7 massacre that killed some 1,200 people — will continue until the country achieves its goals, which include returning all the hostages, destroying Hamas, and demilitarizing the entirety of Gaza.

But securing these objectives in full is proving to be elusive for the Israel Defense Forces, or IDF. Fears are growing that many of the remaining hostages may already be dead, Israeli clearing operations throughout Gaza have not prevented Hamas from returning to areas that were once the sites of hard-fought and bloody battles, and there doesn't seem to be a clear consensus on a workable post-war governance plan.

Israel has claimed that it has eliminated a significant number of mid- to senior-level commanders of Hamas' military wing, known as the al-Qassam Brigades. In December, for instance, the IDF released a photo purporting to show multiple commanders it had killed.

A mid-March Israeli airstrike killed Marwan Issa, the deputy head of Hamas' military wing who had been hiding in an underground compound in central Gaza, according to the IDF.

Jake Sullivan, who serves as the White House national security advisor, identified Issa as Hamas' "number three" in Gaza and said that after his death last month that Israel had "killed thousands of Hamas fighters, including senior commanders."

The exact number of militants killed is unclear. Israel said in late-February that it had killed 12,000 members of Hamas' 30,000-strong pre-war force. Hamas, by contrast, claimed at the time that its death toll was only half of that figure.

As of this week, more than 33,000 Palestinians have been killed since Oct. 7, including 25,000 women and children, according to figures released by Gaza's Hamas-run health ministry. The death toll, which is cited by the United Nations, does not distinguish between civilians and combatants.

Israel has also managed to strike at Hamas' political wing, which operates in exile in Qatar.

An early January explosion in a Beirut suburb eliminated Saleh al-Arouri, the deputy head of Hamas' political bureau, which is often referred to as its politburo. He was the militant group's senior official in Lebanon, responsible for maintaining ties with Hezbollah, another Iran-backed proxy force like Hamas.

And more recently, on Wednesday, the IDF and Israel's Shin Bet security agency confirmed in a joint announcement that an airstrike in central Gaza had killed three sons of Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of Hamas' political wing.

All three men were known to be Hamas military operatives, Israel said. Haniyeh responded to their deaths by stating that this incident would not change his demands to stop the fighting.

But several top Hamas military leaders, including those most wanted by Israel, remain at-large.

This includes figures such as Yahya Sinwar, the overall head of the organization in Gaza, his brother Mohammed, a leader in the al-Qassam Brigades, and Mohammed Deif, who is the commander of the military wing.

"The rest of the top leaders are in hiding, likely deep in the Hamas tunnel network," Sullivan said during a March White House briefing. "And justice will come for them too, and we are helping to ensure that."

Hamas' vast and sophisticated tunnel network underneath Gaza — where the militants have been able to hide and facilitate the movement of weapons, and from which they can launch surprise assaults — has proven to be a headache for Israeli forces.

Retired Maj. Gen. Charlie Herbert, a former officer in the British army, told Business Insider that Hamas leaders who are hiding below ground are able to maintain operational, personal, and communications security there.

Israel's inability to kill them is less of an intelligence failure, said Herbert, who has also served as the senior NATO advisor to Afghanistan's interior ministry, and more that the country has yet to link any intelligence success it does have with an effective kinetic strike targeting the senior leaders.

Israel has found "no real success" at getting Sinwar over the last six months, Herbert said.

What it needs to do instead, he argued, is pivot away from major combat operations toward a more targeted and methodical campaign that also reduces civilian casualties, allows displaced Palestinians to return to their homes, and boosts the flow of humanitarian aid into the besieged enclave.

Herbert said the Israeli military should "retain freedom of maneuver into Gaza for their military forces as and when they require and conduct an intelligence-driven counter-terrorist strategy, whacking Hamas as and when you can do."

Indeed, on Thursday, the IDF announced it was beginning a "precise operation" in central Gaza, seemingly marking a new phase in its efforts to hunt down Hamas leaders. It was unclear if the move came in direct response to the killings of Haniyeh's sons the day prior.

"Overnight, the 162nd Division began a precise, intelligence-based operation to eliminate terrorist operatives and strike terrorist infrastructure in central Gaza," the IDF said in a statement shared to the Telegram messaging platform. What that may look like is a mystery though.

The IDF announcement came just days after the IDF withdrew its forces from the southern city of Khan Younis. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said the move was to prepare for "future missions," including a planned offensive in Rafah, where scores of civilians are sheltering.

The potential Rafah assault has drawn concern and pushback from Western governments, including the Biden administration, amid rising international criticism of Israel's aggressive military campaign as the death toll continues to mount and the humanitarian situation in Gaza continues to worsen.

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• Some Cybertruck owners are reporting issues they say occurred shortly after delivery.
• BI counted six owners online saying they've faced a "critical steering error" warning message.
• The issue appears to cause the EV to slow to a few miles per hour and flash a red warning screen.

Some Cybertruck owners are taking to the internet to report issues with their new Tesla pickup truck. Several say the issues started within days of receiving the vehicle.

Last week, Thomas Remo, known for his YouTube channel "Gear Down," shared a video of his Cybertruck appearing to break down just moments after it was delivered.

In the video, Remo has just started to drive the vehicle onto the road when the truck begins to beep and its infotainment system flashes red with the alert: "PULL OVER SAFELY Critical steering issue detected."

The warning message says the truck's system has detected a "high voltage system error" and service is required as the electric vehicle may not be able to restart, according to multiple pictures of the error screen posted online.

As the warning message flashes, Remo's truck appears to gradually slow to a few miles per hour.

"My foot is on the floor and it's not moving," Remo said in the video.

The YouTuber was able to reset the vehicle by turning it off and back on again, but said he experienced the issue four more times within 44 miles of driving it when he attempted to accelerate with the truck in "Beast Mode," a driving mode similar to the Ludicrous mode which allows a Tesla to accelerate faster.

The vehicle was eventually towed to a Tesla service center, Remo said in the video.

"This car — it just doesn't work," he said. "This car is a lemon."

According to a screenshot Remo shared online that he said showed the invoice from Tesla's service center, the company said the issue was the result of a low voltage harness that connects to the ancillary bay. The technicians replaced the ancillary bay and ancillary cover at no cost to the owner, according to the invoice.

Multiple owners have reported the same issue

At least five others who identified themselves as Cybertruck owners online have posted that they had seen the same warning screen. One Cybertruck owner on a Cybertruck owners forum said they'd seen the warning message, but had less success resetting the vehicle.

"It was great for 5 minutes.. tried everything, restarting, screen is stuck black and keeps beeping," they wrote on the forum. "Tesla really rushed these trucks out, what a nightmare."

Another owner said they'd kept driving the vehicle over time for about 2,000 miles and seen it happen "randomly."

"I just get out, lock the car, wait a few seconds, get back in and it usually works again," the owner said on the Cybertruck forum, adding that they sometimes have to repeat the process two to three times and are waiting for the parts to come in to fix it at a service center.

Tesla and Remo did not respond to a request for comment.

According to the Cybertruck owner's manual, the issue is not indicative of a steering problem.

"This alert indicates a possible issue with one of the multiple redundant sensors and actuators designed to make sure the steer-by-wire system always remains available while driving," the manual says.

The alert can be cleared by exiting and re-entering the truck, according to the manual.

"If you attempt this successfully, and no further alert messages display in the touchscreen indicating potential steering issues or inability to drive, continue to your destination," the manual reads. "If this alert occurs again during your next drive, or occurs multiple times over subsequent drives, it is recommended that you schedule service."

It's not the only issue Cybertruck owners are flagging online — owners have also pointed out issues with the ADAS system and charging. Since the truck's release last November, a Reddit forum dedicated to examples of the truck running into issues, r/Cyberstuck, has taken off, garnering 10,000 members.

It's unclear how many Cybertruck owners have experienced issues with the truck or what percentage the alleged issues represent overall. Many have shared positive experiences with the vehicle. In his first test of living with the truck, tech YouTuber Marques Brownlee said he was impressed by the vehicle.

"I think they really got themselves something solid here," Brownlee said at the time.

Cybertruck owners have also proven to be a resilient bunch. After some owners began spotting rust specks on the truck earlier this year, the owners told Business Insider they were unfazed by the issue. They were quick to find ways to tackle it — sharing hacks for cleaning the truck and purchasing wraps to protect the stainless steel exterior.

Do you work for Tesla, own one, or have a tip? Reach out to the reporter via a non-work email and device at gkay@businessinsider.com

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• The collapse of Ukraine's army cannot be ruled out, a US official told Bloomberg.
• Russia has been advancing on the battlefield in recent weeks.
• Ukraine's ammunition supplies and air defense capabilities are dwindling, say reports.

The possibility of Ukraine's army collapsing cannot be ruled out, an unnamed US official told Bloomberg.

The report said, citing talks with multiple officials, that Ukraine's position on the battlefield is at its most fragile moment since Russia's full-scale invasion began in February 2022

Ukraine's war effort has been weakened in recent months by a severe shortage of ammunition, dipping morale among Ukrainian soldiers, and the impasse in Congress over US aid to Ukraine, Bloomberg reported.

One major risk is a collapse of Ukraine's line of defense, which would allow Russia to make a major advance, Bloomberg said, citing an official speaking anonymously.

In recent weeks, building on its capture of Avdiivka, Russia has advanced incrementally in eastern Ukraine, claiming new territory and threatening the town of Chasiv Yar in the Donetsk region.

Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said Friday that the government would allocate a further Hr 3.88 billion (almost $100 million) to help reinforce fortifications, primarily in the Kharkiv and Sumy regions, which sit near Russia's border.

However, The Wall Street Journal reported in March that although Ukrainian troops were building fortifications in preparation for an oncoming Russian offensive, there are fears that not enough progress is being made.

"What's happening right now is what Russia has spent a long time preparing for. It has gathered enough forces and resources to pressure various axes all at once," Maksym Zhorin, the deputy commander of the Third Assault Brigade, told the WSJ.

Meanwhile, Russia appears to have largely replaced its heavy battlefield losses, and at a much faster pace than anticipated, top US General Christopher Cavoli warned lawmakers on April 11.

"Russia is reconstituting that force far faster than our initial estimates suggested," Cavoli said in a statement to Congress. "The army is actually now larger — by 15 percent — than it was when it invaded Ukraine."

Ukraine's air defense capabilities are also showing vulnerabilities, as more Russian missiles and drones are hitting targets such as critical infrastructure facilities. The largest power plant delivering energy to Kyiv was destroyed Thursday raising concerns that Ukraine might be running out of surface-to-air missiles to counter Russian airstrikes, The Washington Post reported Friday.

"We need air defense systems and other defense assistance, not just turning a blind eye and having lengthy discussions," President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a post on X.

US aid to Ukraine

A new $60 billion US military aid has been held up in Congress since December due to opposition from some Republicans.

The White House has tried to keep at least some aid passing through, sending $300 million in additional weapons last month and an emergency $138 million for upgrades to a key missile defense system, HAWK, earlier this week.

"If Congress does not help Ukraine, then Ukraine will lose the war," Zelenskyy warned Sunday to a group of celebrity ambassadors.

Zelenskyy said last week he remained hopeful of a "positive vote" in Congress, and suggested that Kyiv would be willing to receive the aid as a loan rather than a handout, an idea originally put forward by Donald Trump.

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• I graduated from college a year ago and couldn't get a job, so I now live with my mom.
• My therapist told me I have post-graduation anxiety and depression.
• Im trying to see the bright side of this time in my life. 

I remember the day I graduated from college like it was yesterday. After five years of intense studying, I was thrilled to be done with the college phase of my life.

The graduation party with all my college friends was truly memorable. We were all so excited about the end of late-night reading. The atmosphere was electric, and everyone was having so much fun.

I was most excited about the prospect of independence. I was on the precipice of being able to live my life on my own terms — and I was truly optimistic about the future.

But a year has passed since graduation, and I'm now jobless, depressed, and confused about my future.

Post-grad life is nothing like I expected

I had always thought that my best life would begin after college, and I had no idea how unprepared I was for the reality of living in today's world.

I currently live at home with my mom; I had to move back in when I couldn't keep up with the bills since I was unemployed. In the last year, I seem to have lost touch with most of my college friends, and the few I've kept in touch with all seem to have their lives pretty figured out; they all seem to be starting new careers, traveling, or getting married.

I feel like some sheer cosmic force has left me behind. 

I was never known to get beat up about life; I was the positive, upbeat friend who always encouraged others to have a positive outlook. So, my new take on life has been particularly surprising to my family and friends, but it has been surprising to me most of all.

Most days, I ask: What went wrong? What did I not do right? Is it possible I missed a step, and maybe that is why I got left in the funk? But my questions are just that, and no one seems to have an answer.

Instead, I am stuck going through the motions of living without really living. In the time I have been back home, I haven't missed a family gathering nor stopped hanging out with my childhood friends, and to most of them, I seem to have it all figured out. I don't bother correcting this impression, but looks can be deceiving. I know I am going through life numb, yet I have no idea how to stop it.

My therapist gave me an interesting diagnosis

After discussing these issues with my therapist, she told me I have post-graduation anxiety and depression. She told me she sees this issue among many college graduates she works with, especially recently.

My therapist insists I find pleasure in doing the little things, but that is easier said than done. One day, I feel just fine and start thinking maybe this depression is finally over, and the next, I am back to where I began. My biggest fear has been: Will this feeling ever truly go away, or is this my new normal? I don't want it to be. 

But here is an unexpected twist: In the last year I've been home, I have learned so much about myself amid all my struggles. I have been able to answer questions like who I am and what I really want when I take away the expectations of others. I'm gradually realizing I have never had a time off where I had no achievement to attain.

For the first time, I am truly just living, which is not bad. Maybe my body has not been living but rather just moving to an auto-response, and maybe that's why I am releasing all the stored-up energy.

I may never truly know the answers to all these questions, but I know I have decided to live my life without an outline, taking it one day at a time and doing my best with what I have been given.

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