If you are on the lookout for a combination of big returns and great dividend yields, then look no further.

That’s because analysts at Bell Potter believe one ASX 300 stock could deliver both over the next 12 months.

The company in question is Accent Group Ltd (ASX: AX1).

What is Accent Group?

While its name may not be well-known, chances are you will have shopped at one of its many store brands in the past.

Among the ASX 300 stock’s store brands are Article One, Glue Store, Hype DC, Nude Lucy, Platypus, Sneaker Lab, Stylerunner, and The Athlete’s Foot (TAF). It also holds licensing rights for brands such as Hoka, Timberland, Skechers, and Vans.

Why is it an ASX 300 stock to buy?

Bell Potter believes that Accent is well-positioned for growth. It commented:

We remain constructive on AX1 given the scale & exposure in terms of channels, brands & size as the overall industry navigates a challenging retail spend environment in addition to growing a vertical brand strategy (~8% on owned sales) and growth adjacencies within TAF & via exclusive partnerships with globally winning brands as Hoka.

The broker expects this to lead to earnings per share growth of 17.1% in FY 2025 to 15.5 cents and then 24.6% to 19.3 cents in FY 2026. This means that Accent’s shares are changing hands at just 12.5x estimated FY 2025 earnings and 10x estimated FY 2026 earnings.

This is too cheap to ignore according to its analysts, which are tipping major upside potential for investors that buy in at current levels.

Big returns on offer with Accent shares

According to a recent note, the broker has a buy rating and $2.50 price target on the company’s shares.

Based on the current Accent share price of $1.95, this implies potential upside of 28% for investors over the next 12 months.

This means that a $10,000 investment would grow to be worth $12,800 this time next year if Bell Potter is on the money with its recommendation.

But the returns won’t stop there. Accent is among the more generous dividend payers on the Australian share market and Bell Potter doesn’t expect this to change.

Its analysts are forecasting fully franked dividends per share of 13 cents in FY 2024, 14.6 cents in FY 2025, and then 16.4 cents in FY 2026. Based on where the ASX 300 stock currently trades, this would mean dividend yields of 6.65%, 7.5%, and 8.4%, respectively.

And as Accent’s interim dividend has already been paid, you would be looking at a ~7% dividend yield on a 12-month basis (FY24 final and FY25 interim).

Overall, investors buying at current levels could generate a total annual return of approximately 35% if all goes to plan.

The post Buy this ASX 300 stock for a 28% gain and 7% dividend yield appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• Forget gold! I’d buy these top ASX shares to beat inflation
• Want an income boost? Buy ANZ Bank and these ASX dividend stocks
• Get paid huge amounts of cash to own these ASX dividend shares
• Top ASX shares to buy in April 2024
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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Accent Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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Investing icon, Steve Eisman, is bullish on a specific segment of the share market. After doing my homework, I think the American investor is onto something. However, I’ve ‘Aussiefied’ the idea, with three ASX shares to buy if Eisman is right again.

The Big Short film is almost a rite of passage for anyone fascinated by the world of investing. Steve Eisman — now managing director at Neuberger Berman — is one investor who successfully shorted the United States housing market.

This time, Eisman is buying in an industry that rarely gets attention.

Big Short’s Eisman eyes ‘turbocharged’ theme

Speaking on the Bloomberg Odd Lots podcast, Eisman discussed where he sees an opportunity to make money in the current market.

Eisman described the investing landscape, asserting: “There are three, I think, great stories of our time right now, and those are: AI and everything having to do with it; infrastructure, and crypto. I believe in the first two, and I don’t believe in the third.”

The conservation then focused on infrastructure, where the famed investor outlined four themes for boosting the industry over a decade, these being:

• Onshoring i.e. local manufacturing: A consequence of the pandemic supply chain disruptions
• Data centres: Increased electricity and cooling demand from more powerful GPUs
• Grid improvement: Growing pressure on utility network from electrification
• Greenification: The shift towards more renewable energy

As Eisman puts it, these factors are then ‘turbocharged’ by the prolonged infrastructure policy drought, which is now being remedied by roughly US$1.2 trillion in government spending across the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA).

In the podcast, Eisman says he’s widdled his list for infrastructure investments down to about 80 — only 30 of which are ‘very, very interesting’. Two companies mentioned but not held by Eisman include Eaton Corporation PLC (NYSE: ETN) and CRH PLC (NYSE: CRH).

Which ASX shares to buy

Don’t worry, I don’t have a list of 30 companies. Instead, I think three locally-listed businesses could capitalise on increased infrastructure development. Let’s hit this rapid-fire style — the company and my reason.

James Hardie Industries Plc (ASX: JHX)

The Dublin-headquartered building materials company has a local manufacturing presence in the United States, which could put it on the front foot as customers reduce their reliance on foreign suppliers. Furthermore, developed countries are contending with a housing shortage, generating a sizeable need for building materials.

Monadelphous Group Ltd (ASX: MND)

Monadelphous is a $1.3 billion construction engineering company featured in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO). The company is well known for its contracted construction and maintenance work within the mining sector. However, Monadelphous is expanding into renewable developments, such as Tilt Renewable’s Latrobe Valley Battery Energy Storage System.

IPD Group Ltd (ASX: IPG)

A small-cap ASX share to buy, in my view, is IPD Group. This business is a central source for a wide range of electrical products. In its first half FY24 presentation, the company noted that 44% of its revenue came from commercial construction, 14% from infrastructure/industrial applications, and 5% from data centres.

The post 3 essential ASX shares to buy for ‘Big Short’ legend’s next pick appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today
• Guess which ASX 200 share offers 12% upside and a 4% dividend yield
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday
• Popular ASX All Ords shares with ex-dividend dates next week

Motley Fool contributor Mitchell Lawler has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Ipd Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Ipd Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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ASX exchange-traded funds (ETFs) provide an easy way of achieving great diversification in just one trade, and there are plenty to choose from on the market today.

The simplest and most well-known are those that track the performance of indexes such as the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) and the S&P 500 Index (SP: .INX) in the US.

Other ASX ETFs track certain sectors, such as the Australian Resources Sector ETF (ASX: QRE) and VanEck Australian Banks ETF (ASX: MVB).

Many ASX ETFs adopt certain strategies. For example, the top five Aussie shares ETFs for total returns in 2023 all had environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG) strategies.

All of these ASX ETFs have a manager running them and their fees depend on how much work is involved.

You don’t have to do much to manage an index fund, for example.

Every quarter the index is officially updated, and the ETF managers follow suit by adding or removing companies and rejigging the weightings in accordance with each company’s market capitalisation.

This is all pretty simple but some ETFs charge more than others for this service.

This is why it’s important to check the management expense ratio (MER) that an ETF charges before buying it.

Bear in mind that ASX ETFs with strategies will generally charge higher fees.

This is because the managers are selecting stocks on your behalf, which requires more skill and expertise.

As a general rule, the lower the management fee the better because those fees eat into your returns.

While past performance is no guarantee of future performance, it’s worth looking at the history of all the ASX ETFs you’re interested in and comparing the fees to determine which funds offer the best value.

We reviewed more than 300 ASX ETFs listed on CommSec to find those with the lowest MERs.

10 ASX ETFs with the lowest management fees

BetaShares Global Sustainability Leaders ETF-Currency Hedged (ASX: HETH)

The BetaShares Global Sustainability Leaders ETF-Currency Hedged invests in BetaShares Global Sustainability Leaders ETF (ASX: ETHI) with the currency exposure hedged back to the Australian dollar.

ETHI invests in companies deemed to be ‘climate leaders’.

The HETH ETF share price is currently $14.17, up 22.37% over the past 12 months.

Over the past five years, it has risen 41.70%.

MER: 0.03%.

BetaShares Global Quality Leaders ETF-Currency Hedged (ASX: HQLT)

The BetaShares Global Quality Leaders ETF-Currency Hedged invests in the BetaShares Global Quality Leaders ETF (ASX: QLTY) with the currency exposure hedged back to the Australian dollar.

QLTY holds 150 global companies (ex-Australia) ranked in order of a quality score. The scores are based on a combined ranking of four key factors – return on equity (ROE), debt-to-capital, cash flow generation and earnings stability.

The HQLT ETF share price is currently $29.42, up 28.58% over the past 12 months.

Over the past five years, it has risen 49.49%.

MER: 0.03%.

VanEck MSCI International Value (AUD Hedged) ETF (ASX: HVLU)

The VanEck MSCI International Value (AUD Hedged) ETF holds 250 international developed-market large-caps and mid-caps with high scores as calculated by MSCI and returns hedged into Australian dollars.

The HVLU ETF share price is currently $27.42, up 14.49% since inception in November 2023.

MER: 0.03%.

VanEck MSCI International Small Companies Quality (AUD Hedged) ETF (ASX: QHSM)

The VanEck MSCI International Small Companies Quality (AUD Hedged) ETF invests in 150 international developed-market small-cap quality growth shares with returns hedged into Australian dollars.

The QHSM ETF share price is currently $30.08, up 26.02% since inception in November 2023.

MER: 0.03%.

Vanguard US Total Market Shares Index ETF (ASX: VTS)

The Vanguard US Total Market Shares Index ETF is an index-based ETF that tracks the performance of the whole United States stock market, incorporating more than 3,700 American US companies.

The VTS ETF share price is currently $389.92, up 27.68% over the past 12 months.

Over the past five years, it has risen 87.89%.

MER: 0.03%.

BetaShares Australia 200 ETF (ASX: A200)

The BetaShares Australia 200 ETF is an index-based ETF that tracks the performance of the ASX 200.

The A200 ETF share price is currently $130.47, up 7.30% over the past 12 months.

Over the past five years, it has risen 24.78%.

MER: 0.04%.

iShares S&P 500 ETF (ASX: IVV)

The iShares S&P 500 ETF is an index-based ETF that tracks the performance of the 500 largest US companies comprising the S&P 500.

The IVV ETF share price is currently $52.45, up 27.71% over the past 12 months.

Over the past five years, it has risen 92.97%.

MER: 0.04%.

SPDR S&P/ASX 200 ESG (ASX: E200)

The SPDR S&P/ASX 200 ESG invests in ASX 200 shares excluding companies involved in military contracting, small arms and tobacco, oil and thermal coal above a certain threshold.

The E200 ETF share price is currently $24.82, up 4.99% over the past 12 months.

It has risen 22.33% since its inception in August 2020.

MER: 0.05%.

iShares Core S&P/ASX 200 ETF (ASX: IOZ)

The iShares Core S&P/ASX 200 ETF tracks the performance of the ASX 200 Accumulation Index.

The IOZ ETF share price is currently $31.49, up 7.07% over the past 12 months.

Over the past five years, it has risen 22.96%.

MER: 0.05%.

SPDR S&P/ASX 200 (ASX: STW)

Launched in August 2001, the SPDR S&P/ASX 200 was Australia’s first listed ETF. It tracks the performance of the ASX 200 index.

The STW ETF share price is currently $70.47, up 6.50% over the past 12 months.

Over the past five years, it has risen 21.06%.

MER: 0.05%.

The post 10 ASX ETFs with the lowest management fees and why it matters appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• Forget gold! I’d buy these top ASX shares to beat inflation
• 4 ASX All Ords shares with ex-dividend dates next week
• 3 reasons the Vanguard US Total Market Shares Index ETF (VTS) is still a top buy
• How to tap into the record-breaking ASX 200 performance with just one stock
• Which ASX ETFs give Aussie investors access to US stocks?

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has positions in BetaShares Global Sustainability Leaders ETF and Vanguard Us Total Market Shares Index ETF. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended iShares S&P 500 ETF. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended iShares S&P 500 ETF. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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Warren Buffett’s long-standing sage advice is “to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy when others are fearful.” The third-largest holder of an ASX 300 stock is putting this advice into action by adding to its stash.

Shares in Cettire Ltd (ASX: CTT) have taken a hit over the past month and a half. However, the falling share price has attracted the attention of US-based investment firm Cat Rock Capital. Undeterred by recent news, the investor ramped up its position in the online luxury fashion platform.

Hungry for an ASX 300 stock at a discount

On 6 March, The Australian Financial Review alluded to inadequacies in customs duties on goods. This prompted a sell-off in Cettire shares as shareholders grew concerned about any implications if there were any skeletons in the closet.

Cettire quickly addressed the concerns in a release of its own. However, the damage control proved insufficient to prevent the Cettire share price from falling a further 16% over the time since, as shown below.

More pressure mounted in the back half of March as additional information came to light.

Once again, The AFR reported on a Texan resident in the United States and their experience with the luxury fashion business.

In the article, Jane (a pseudonym) reveals how she noticed discrepancies between the duties paid at the online checkout and what the customs documentation showed. Namely, paying more to Cettire than what the courier invoiced.

Moreover, the price of the goods disclosed to the courier was less (US$4600) than the actual purchase amount (US$6663).

Despite these matters, according to today’s change in substantial holding notice, Cat Rock Capital has been loading up on this ASX 300 stock. The investment firm now holds a 10.44% position in Cettire, increasing by 4 million shares.

Some of the largest buys occurred on 6 March — when the Financial Review‘s investigation landed — 11 March, 4 April, and 5 April.

Not alone in buying the dip

Cat Rock Capital is not the only party betting the pessimism is misplaced. As fellow Fool Sebastian Bowen covered last month, Wilson Asset Management (WAM) has been making the most of Cettire’s subdued sentiment — buying shares at every chance.

Likewise, Bell Potter believes there’s nothing to be worried about at Cettire. The broker holds a $4.14 price target on the company’s shares, suggesting a 23% upside from the current price.

The ASX 300 stock closed at $3.37, up 1.8% from yesterday. Although shares had reached a high of $3.55 earlier in the day.

The post Guess which ASX 300 stock popped on major shareholder buying the dip appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• This hot ASX 300 stock is down 30% since February. Is it a buy?
• Why Cettire, Harvey Norman, Orora, and ResMed shares are sinking today
• Why Baby Bunting, Bellevue Gold, Cettire, and New Hope shares are rising today
• Why Cettire shares are continuing to rebound today
• Why Bannerman Energy, Cettire, TechnologyOne, and Zip shares are charging higher

Motley Fool contributor Mitchell Lawler has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Cettire. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Ansell and Elders. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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Are you on the lookout for some new income portfolio additions? If you are, it could be worth taking a look at the three ASX dividend stocks named below.

These have all been named as buys by analysts recently. They are as follows:

Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL)

The first ASX dividend stock for income investors to consider buying this month is Coles.

It is a supermarket operator with over 800 stores across the country. In addition, it has a large liquor network comprising almost 1,000 stores across brands including Liquorland and Vintage Cellars.

Analysts at Morgans have been impressed with the company’s performance in FY 2024, noting that  Coles is outperforming its key rival early in the second half.

The broker expects this strong form to allow the company to pay fully franked dividends of 66 cents per share in FY 2024 and then 69 cents per share in FY 2025. Based on the current Coles share price of $16.94, this will mean yields of 3.9% and 4.1%, respectively.

Morgans has an add rating and $18.70 price target on its shares.

GDI Property Group Ltd (ASX: GDI)

Another ASX dividend stock that could be a buy this month is GDI Property. It is a fully integrated, internally managed property and funds management group.

Bell Potter is tipping the company’s shares as a buy and believes it could offer income investors some huge dividend yields in the near term.

The broker is forecasting dividends per share of 5 cents across FY 2024, FY 2025, and FY 2026. Based on the current GDI Property share price of 61 cents, this implies dividend yields of 8.2%.

Bell Potter also sees plenty of upside for its shares with its buy rating and 75 cents price target.

Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS)

If you’d like to gain exposure to the rebounding oil market, then Woodside could be an ASX dividend stock to buy.

It is one of the world’s largest energy companies with a portfolio of high-quality operations and projects spanning the globe. This includes Pluto LNG, which is one of the world’s most technologically advanced LNG production facilities, and the Shenzi conventional oil and gas field located approximately 195km off the coast of Louisiana in the Green Canyon protraction area, Gulf of Mexico.

Morgans is also feeling very positive about Woodside. Its analysts “see now as a good time to add to positions.”

In respect to income, the broker is forecasting fully franked dividends of $1.36 per share in FY 2024 and $1.12 per share in FY 2025. Based on the current Woodside share price of $30.10, this equates to 4.5% and 3.7% dividend yields, respectively, for investors.

The broker has an add rating and $34.20 price target on its shares.

The post Buy Coles and these ASX dividend stocks now appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• How ASX 200 energy stocks could soon enjoy US$100 oil prices
• Better ASX stock: Woodside vs Telstra
• In this bull market, where are the bargain buys to be found?
• 3 things smart investors know about Coles stock
• Have Woolworths and Coles shares been spared a break-up?

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Woodside Energy Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Coles Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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It’s turning out to be another solid day for the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) and most ASX 200 shares so far this Tuesday. At the time of writing, the index has risen by a strong 0.53%, pushing it back over 7,800 points. But that’s quite different to what is happening to the Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) share price.

Santos shares are missing out on today’s market optimism, and decisively so. At present, the ASX 200 energy stock is down a hefty 1.66% to $7.72 a share after closing at $7.85 yesterday afternoon.

This seems to be a Santos problem, as most other ASX 200 oil and gas stocks, including Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS), Karoon Energy Ltd (ASX: KAR) and Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT), are currently well in the green.

So what’s up with the Santos share price today?

Why is the Santos share price dropping so heavily on Tuesday?

Well, there’s been no fresh ASX news or announcements out of Santos itself today. However, there has been some news regarding Santos that could be weighing on investors.

One of Santos’ major projects is the Papua LNG joint venture, located in Papua New Guinea. Santos has a 22.8% interest in this joint venture, with the other partners being international energy heavyweights TotalEnergies and ExxonMobil.

Santos told investors last month that engineering and design work has commenced at Papua LNG. However, yesterday saw Total Energies release a statement regarding the project. This statement told investors that Patrick Pouyanné, Chairman and CEO of TotalEnergies, held a meeting with the PNG Prime Minster James Marape over the project’s future.

It didn’t exactly paint a flattering picture of the project’s commercial viability. Here’s what some of the statement said:

[Pouyanné] also informed the Prime Minister that, after receiving first EPC [engineering, procurement and construction] offers, it appears that the project will need to keep working with contractors to obtain commercially viable EPC contracts and requires more work to reach FID [a final investment decision].

In that view, the project will review the structure of some packages and open the competition to an enlarged panel of Asian contractors. As a consequence, FID  of Papua LNG project is now expected in 2025.

So this could be what is weighing on investor sentiment regarding the Santos share price today. It’s certainly not the news Santos investors were probably hoping to hear this April.

Regardless, the Santos share price remains up 0.6% in 2024, and up 7% over the past 12 months. At the current pricing, this ASX 200 energy stock has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.77, and a dividend yield of 3.65%.

The post Why is the Santos share price tanking on Tuesday? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• How ASX 200 energy stocks could soon enjoy US$100 oil prices
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Tuesday
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday
• Here’s how the ASX 200 market sectors stacked up last week
• Is now the time to invest in these ASX 200 energy shares?

Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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Over the last decade and a half, CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) shares have been a great place to park your money.

During this time, the biotechnology giant’s shares have generated a total average annual return of 16.4% per annum.

This means that if you had invested $5,000 into CSL’s shares all the way back in 2009 and held tightly to them until today, your investment would have grown to be worth a mouth-watering ~$49,000.

This has been driven by the company’s consistently strong performance underpinned by its in-demand plasma therapies, acquisitions, and its annual investment in research and development (R&D).

In respect to the latter, CSL reinvests in the region of 12% of its sales back into R&D activities each year. This has led to the development of some lucrative and life-saving therapies and vaccines, as well as a pipeline of future products to drive its growth.

But those gains have been and gone. What could happen if I invested $5,000 into the company’s shares today? Would they be a good place to put my hard-earned money? Let’s find out what analysts are saying about the biotechnology giant.

Should I invest $5,000 into CSL shares?

The majority of analysts in Australia are positive on CSL and see plenty of value in its shares at current levels.

For example, Morgans has an add rating and $315.40 price target on them. It recently described CSL as a key holding and named it on its best ideas list. The broker commented:

While shares have struggled of late, we continue to view CSL as a key portfolio holding and sector pick, offering double-digit recovery in earnings growth as plasma collections increase, new products get approved and influenza vaccine uptake increases around ongoing concerns about respiratory viruses, with shares trading at 25x, a substantial discount (20%) to its long-term average.

Big returns are possible

Analysts at UBS and Macquarie see even more value in the company’s shares at current levels. They both recently put the equivalent of buy ratings and $330.00 price targets on them.

At present, CSL shares are changing hands for $280.33. This means that for an investment of $5,045.94, I could pick up 18 units.

If those shares were to rise in value to UBS and Macquarie’s price targets, they would have a market value of $5,940. That’s approximately $900 more than my original investment.

But it gets better. Macquarie is so positive on the outlook for the key CSL Behring business that it believes the CSL share price could climb beyond $500 within three years. If this proves accurate, those 18 shares would have a market value of $9,000 in 2027.

All in all, it seems that the company’s shares could be worth holding tightly to for some time to come.

The post What could $5,000 invested in CSL shares become in 1 year? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in CSL. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL and Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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The S&P 500 Index (SP: .INX) is up 9.7% already this year after a spectacular 24% gain in 2023.

Last year’s gain was triple the pace of the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO), which rose by 8.1%.

The Australian share market tends to follow US stocks in trend terms, so it is not surprising that both markets are up, but each market can move at a different pace, as the results show.

Both markets have recently hit record levels due to investor excitement over potential interest rate cuts later in the year.

But one big difference between the US markets and the ASX 200 is they are home to some of the world’s most successful technology companies and many of them are shooting the lights out with earnings.

The Magnificent Seven, which includes Microsoft Corp, Apple Inc, and Amazon.com Inc, has generated much excitement among investors due to their outsized earnings growth.

NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ: NVDA) is a case in point, with the company reporting an ‘insane result‘ with a 769% net income increase in its latest quarterly update.  

But can all this growth continue for the S&P 500?

The S&P 500 bull: Wells Fargo

As reported in The Australian, Wells Fargo equity head Christopher Harvey is predicting this rally will continue.

He reckons the S&P 500 will be at 5,535 points by December. His previous forecast was 4,625 points. The index closed last night at 5,202.39 points.

Harvey has become more ambitious due to the explosive growth of artificial intelligence and better-than-expected company earnings.

In a note to investors (courtesy Bloomberg), Harvey said:

In our view, the bull market, AI’s secular growth story, and index concentration have shifted investors’ attention away from traditional valuation measures and toward longer-term growth and discounting metrics.

The latest US jobs report was surprisingly strong, leading some traders to reduce their expectations of rate cuts to just one or two this year. Some reckon the US Fed could even leave them as they are.

Ophir Asset Management is another broker expecting the rally to continue, despite some analysts now saying rate cuts may come later than initially expected, according to the Australian Financial Review (AFR).

Some analysts believe the US is in for a ‘no landing’ – when activity expands despite higher interest rates – instead of a ‘soft landing’ when the economy and inflation both slow.

Luke McMillan, head of research at Ophir, said US shares have risen seven times during periods where the economy experienced a soft landing and rate cuts with no immediate recession.

McMillan added:

And after last week’s hot US jobs data report, there is increasing chatter of no landing and no rate cut.

Bottom line: markets like Fed cuts, so long as they are not emergency cuts to stave off a recession.

The S&P 500 bear: JPMorgan Chase

JPMorgan strategists have an end-of-year target of 4,200 points for the S&P 500.

Overnight chief executive Jamie Dimon said US interest rates could rise to 8% or higher over the coming years due to the cost of the green energy transition and the wars in Ukraine and Gaza.

In his annual letter to JPMorgan Chase shareholders overnight (courtesy Wall Street Journal), Dimon said:

Huge fiscal spending, the trillions needed each year for the green economy, the remilitarization of the world and the restructuring of global trade—all are inflationary.

Dimon said the US economy had remained resilient but geopolitical tensions were a threat to the world economy, so today’s market optimism may be overdone.

He said:

These markets seem to be pricing in a 70 per cent to 80 per cent chance of a soft landing. I believe the odds are a lot lower than that.

Interested in US shares?

We recently canvassed a bunch of ASX ETFs that offer good exposure to US shares, ranging from simple index funds like iShares S&P 500 ETF (ASX: IVV) to strategic themed funds like VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF (ASX: MOAT), which specialises in companies with big competitive advantages (i.e., moats).

The post Bull vs. bear: Can the S&P 500 keep rising in 2024? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. JPMorgan Chase is an advertising partner of The Ascent, a Motley Fool company. Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Amazon, Apple, JPMorgan Chase, Microsoft, Nvidia, and iShares S&P 500 ETF. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Amazon, Apple, Nvidia, VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF, and iShares S&P 500 ETF. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) gold stocks have been enjoying some heady tailwinds from a soaring gold price.

Indeed, it seems the yellow metal is notching new record highs almost daily lately.

After trading at recent lows of US$1,820 per ounce on 5 October, gold rebounded to US$2,059 per ounce by 2 January.

And it kept on going.

At time of writing bullion is fetching US$2,344 per ounce, having hit US$2,347 per ounce just a few hours ago.

The gold price, and gold shares, really took off on 28 February, when gold was worth US$2,034 per ounce.

This has seen the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index (ASX: XGD) – which also contains some smaller gold miners outside of the ASX 200 gold stocks – rocket 25.6% since the closing bell on 28 February.

For some context, the ASX 200 has gained 2.2% over that same period.

Here’s how these top ASX 200 gold stocks have performed since 28 February:

• Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) shares have gained 20.0%
• Newmont Corp (ASX: NEM) shares have gained 30.9%
• De Grey Mining Ltd (ASX: DEG) shares have gained 5.8%
• Ramelius Resources Ltd(ASX: RMS) shares have gained 40.7%
• Gold Road Resources Ltd (ASX: GOR) shares have gained 19.2%
• Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) shares have gained 35.9%
• Bellevue Gold Ltd (ASX: BGL) shares have gained 32.2%

Take that, inflation!

With the big Aussie gold producers clearly enjoying the rocketing gold price, what can investors expect next?

ASX 200 gold stocks could see gold charge far higher

A range of factors have aligned to send global gold prices to a series of all-time highs.

While my crystal ball is no more functional than any other, it looks like these tailwinds could continue blowing for ASX 200 gold stocks for some time yet.

First, we have the growing prospect of interest rate cuts from the US Fed, the RBA, and numerous other influential central banks.

Gold, which pays no interest itself, tends to perform better in a low or falling rate environment.

Second, we have gold’s classic safe haven status, which has come to the fore amid rising geopolitical conflicts across much of the globe.

“The sabre-rattling from Putin, conflict in Ukraine and Gaza, all of that adds to the background noise. The mood music is bullish for gold now from the safe haven perspective,” Adrian Ash, director of research at BullionVault said (quoted by Bloomberg).

Third, we have ongoing strong central bank bullion purchases, supporting overall demand.

The fourth factor sending the gold price higher and supporting ASX 200 gold stocks is strong consumer demand from China, where people are concerned over the nation’s currency outlook, alongside its shaky property and stock markets.

“The gold market hasn’t been driven by western investors. China, so far this year and through last year has been the engine behind gold prices,” Bernard Dahdah, a commodity analyst at Natixis noted.

Finally, gold also appears to be gaining support from investors concerned that the Fed and US government may not be able to engineer the so-called soft landing for the world’s biggest economy.

According to Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank (courtesy of Bloomberg):

The rally is defying a lot of normal thinking, especially when it comes to still-elevated rates. I think the narrative is changing towards sticky inflation and perhaps a hard landing, spiced with a lot of geopolitical uncertainty and de-globalisation driving central bank demand.

Although the gold price is at all-time nominal highs, the yellow metal has a way to go before reaching new records in real (inflation adjusted) terms.

That record was set more than 44 years ago, in January 1980 when gold was trading for US$850 per ounce, or some US$3,000 in 2024 terms.

As always, whether you’re looking at buying ASX 200 gold stocks or any other shares, make sure to do your own research first. Or simply reach out for some expert advice.

The post Buying ASX 200 gold stocks? Here’s why the record gold price could keep charging higher appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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