As we eye the final few hours of trade before Friday’s closing bell, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is down 0.9% for the week despite the best lifting efforts of these three ASX 200 stocks.

One of this week’s top performers is a major online furniture and homewares retailer, another is an Aussie gold miner, and the third earns its keep devising novel means to protect sensitive areas from hostile drones.

Which companies am I talking about?

Read on!

2 ASX 200 stocks racing ahead of the benchmark

The first outperforming ASX 200 stock on my list is Emerald Resources NL (ASX: EMR).

Emerald Resources shares closed last Friday trading for $5.90. At the time of writing, shares in the ASX gold stock are changing hands for $6.28 apiece.

That sees the Emerald Resources share price up 6.4%.

There’s no fresh news out from the miner this week. But Emerald Resources shares will have caught some tailwinds from the 1% increase in the gold price over the week amid increasing expectations of further interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve.

Gold is currently fetching US$4,318 per ounce.

Which brings us to the second ASX 200 stock posting strong gains in this week’s slumping market, Temple & Webster Group Ltd (ASX: TPW).

Shares in the online furniture and homewares retailer closed last week trading for $12.63 and are currently trading for $13.63 each.

This puts the Temple & Webster share price up 7.9% for the week.

There’s also no fresh price-sensitive news out from Temple & Webster this week. But shares are surging 8.7% today amid another share buyback announcement.

The company noted, “TPW may buy back up to 10% of its issued capital over the next 12 months without shareholder approval – price for any share buy-backs not to exceed 5% above the VWAP of TPW shares over the five trading days prior.”

Flying ahead of the pack

Leading the charge higher this week, we find DroneShield Ltd (ASX: DRO) shares.

DroneShield shares closed last Friday trading for $2.08. In afternoon trade today, shares are changing hands for $2.63 apiece.

That sees this ASX 200 stock up 26.2% for the week, despite Thursday’s 12.1% plunge.

DroneShield shares got a huge boost on Wednesday, closing up 22.2%, after the company announced a new $49.6 million contract with a European military customer.

The contract with the unnamed customer entails handheld counter drone systems, alongside the associated accessories and software updates.

The post 3 ASX 200 stocks storming higher in this week’s sinking market appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended DroneShield and Temple & Webster Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Temple & Webster Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

When an investor buys any ASX bank stock, but particularly one of the four major Australian banks, you can probably place a successful bet that it is at least in part due to the expectation of receiving a hefty dividend going forward. That’s certainly the case for most investors who buy National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) shares, I’d wager. NAB, like most of the big four banks, has been paying out fat, and fully franked, dividends for decades.

That has continued in 2025. Over this year, NAB has funded two dividend payments, as is the norm on the ASX. The first was the interim dividend from March, which saw investors bag 85 cents per share. The second was the December final dividend, also worth 85 cents per share.

Both payments came fully franked.

NAB shares have enjoyed a lucrative 2025 to date, even with the dip we saw in November. As it currently stands (at the time of writing), the bank has achieved a healthy 13.4% year-to-date return in 2025.

That’s great.

At the present share price of $42.26, NAB is currently on a trailing dividend yield of 4.03%. When you consider that grosses up to 5.76% with the value of those full franking credits, we have a decent yielder on our hands.

Or do we? After all, an ASX dividend share’s yield only reflects what the company has paid out over the last 12 months. Not what it will pay out going forward. There’s no way to know what any ASX share will pay out in the future. Not until the company formally declares a dividend. As such, we have to venture into some educated guesswork.

Is NAB’s 4% dividend yield safe?

On the surface, NAB’s dividend does look relatively safe. The bank’s 2025 annual dividends represented a payout ratio of 73.3% of cash earnings. That’s quite low by ASX bank standards, and within NAB’s own policy of paying out between 65% and 75% of earnings.

However, there’s arguably not much of a cushion if NAB’s earnings fall in 2026, or the bank decides it wishes to use its capital for a different purpose.

Management has already stated its preference for share buybacks, with NAB chair Philip Chronican stating that “we retain a bias towards reducing the share count over time” earlier this month. That perhaps implies that NAB would rather cut its dividend than reduce its buybacks if cash becomes tight.

At least one expert reckons that’s what’s in store for NAB shares too. Analysts at Macquarie have recently forecast that NAB will trim its annual dividends from $1.70 per share to $1.50 a share by 2027 amid stagnant growth and pressure on NAB’s earnings.

However, not all experts are so bearish on NAB’s dividend. My Fool colleague recently went over the views of CMC Markets, which predict that NAB will be able to hold its payouts at around $1.70 per share for the next few years.

Foolish takeaway

It’s difficult to predict what an ASX dividend share will pay out in the future at the best of times. But particularly so when there are experts offering different views.  However, no one seems to think there is any sort of dividend growth in NAB’s immediate future, so perhaps that should be the notion that investors take home.

The post 4% yield: Is NAB’s dividend safe? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has positions in National Australia Bank. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

In afternoon trade, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is on course to end the week on a positive note. At the time of writing, the benchmark index is up 0.4% to 8,621.6 points.

Four ASX shares that have failed to follow the market higher today are listed below. Here’s why they are falling:

Aeris Resources Ltd (ASX: AIS)

The Aeris Resources share price is down almost 4% to 52 cents. This morning, this copper miner revealed that it has increased its share purchase plan (SPP) offer in response to strong demand. Aeris was looking to raise $10 million at 45 cents per share, but received applications in excess of $21.6 million. It has decided to increase the offer instead of scaling back applications, with all valid applications accepted. Aeris Resources advised that proceeds from the share purchase plan will be applied to general working capital.

Netwealth Group Ltd (ASX: NWL)

The Netwealth share price is down 2.5% to $26.31. On Thursday, this investment platform provider has agreed to pay $100 million in compensation to First Guardian investors. In response, Ord Minnett has retained its hold rating on Netwealth’s shares with a reduced price target of $27.75 (from $29.00). This implies potential upside of approximately 5.5% for investors. Elsewhere, the team at Citi remains positive and has retained its buy rating with a reduced price target of $30.65 (from $35.00).

Nova Minerals Ltd (ASX: NVA)

The Nova Minerals share price is down 12% to 90.5 cents. This gold and critical minerals stock has returned from suspension today after announcing the pricing of a US$20 million NASDAQ offering. The company advised that it intends to use the proceeds for planned exploration and development activities on its Estelle Project. This includes additional drilling and exploration, feasibility and environmental studies, camp expansion, permits and approvals, initial development activities, and for general corporate purposes and working capital.

Paragon Care Ltd (ASX: PGC)

The Paragon Care share price is down a further 9% to 20.5 cents. This medical equipment, devices, consumables, and pharmaceuticals provider’s shares have been hammered this week. This has been driven by news that receivers and administrators have been appointed to 54 pharmacies in the Infinity Retail Pharmacy Group after it failed to repay its Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES) debt. Paragon Care was also owed $47 million and that repayment now looks unlikely.

The post Why Aeris Resources, Netwealth, Nova Minerals, and Paragon Care shares are dropping today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Citigroup is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Netwealth Group and Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Netwealth Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Aussie Broadband Ltd (ASX: ABB) shares have slipped around 2% at the time of writing, after the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) released its final determination on regulated voice interconnection rates.

The ruling is expected to result in a small reduction of the company’s EBITDA in the coming years.

What do investors need to know?

The ACCC’s ruling covers the key “terminating” and “originating” access services that allow voice calls to be connected between different carriers. These regulated rates determine what telcos pay each other to complete calls, meaning they directly affect the economics of networks such as Aussie Broadband’s voice platforms, NetSIP, and Symbio.

According to the company, the new rate schedule will result in a reduction of charges from 1 July 2026, with further step-downs occurring from 2027–2029.

For Aussie Broadband, the impact will not be immediate, as FY26 remains unaffected; however, management estimates an EBITDA reduction of approximately $3 million in FY27 and $6 million in FY28, after applying planned market-facing mitigation strategies.

There has been no determination on rates after 30 June 2029.

FY27’s impact represents less than 2% of the company’s FY26 EBITDA guidance, but investors nonetheless marked the stock lower as the long-term regulatory headwind became clearer.

In its announcement, the company signalled disappointment with the ACCC’s position, arguing that the decision risks undermining investment in fixed-line voice networks. CEO Brian Maher said:

While we acknowledge the delayed implementation date and the additional time this gives us to work through these changes with our partners and their customers, we are disappointed that ultimately the ACCC has disregarded the impact the reductions in regulated rates will likely have on challenger fixed-only providers that enable an essential infrastructure and service to the broader community. We also strongly disagree with their definition of a modern efficient operator and believe the ACCC has not fully considered or valued the resiliency and redundancy benefits of operating fixed voice networks.

These networks remain essential infrastructure for 000 emergency access, business operations, and network redundancy during mobile outages. Aussie Broadband also noted that it had provided significant input during the consultation phase, particularly regarding the impact on challenger providers.

Despite the setback, Aussie Broadband emphasised that it will pursue a range of mitigation initiatives to protect margins and support ongoing network investment. The company reiterated its Look-to-28 goals and maintained its commitment to keeping EBITDA margins at a minimum of 12.5%.

Foolish bottom line

While today’s share price decline reflects investor reaction to an unwelcome regulatory outcome, the long lead time before the changes take effect gives Aussie Broadband room to adjust its pricing, cost structures, and product mix. For now, the market is digesting the implications, but the company remains confident it can navigate the transition while continuing to grow its broader broadband and enterprise services footprint.

The post Aussie Broadband shares sink 2% on ACCC report appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Kevin Gandiya has no positions in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Aussie Broadband. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Aussie Broadband. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has followed Wall Street’s lead and is pushing higher. In afternoon trade, the benchmark index is up 0.4% to 8,624.2 points.

Four ASX shares that are rising more than most today are listed below. Here’s why they are ending the week with a bang:

4DMedical Ltd (ASX: 4DX)

The 4DMedical share price is up 23% to $3.55. Investors have been buying this respiratory imaging technology company’s shares after it entered into a commercial arrangement for the clinical use of CT:VQ with United States-based Cleveland Clinic. It is a CAT scan-based ventilation-perfusion software. 4DMedical’s founder and CEO, Andreas Fouras, said: “In just over three months since FDA clearance, we’ve established CT:VQ at three of America’s leading academic medical centres: Stanford, University of Miami, and Cleveland Clinic. This rapid adoption by elite institutions demonstrates the compelling clinical and operational advantages of CT:VQ over traditional nuclear VQ imaging.”

Develop Global Ltd (ASX: DVP)

The Develop Global share price is up almost 6% to $4.43. This morning, the miner and mining services company revealed that it has been awarded a $200 million underground development contract. This will see the company establish access tunnels at OceanaGold’s Waihi North Project in the North Island of New Zealand. Develop Managing Director Bill Beament said: “This contract reflects the strength and depth of our Mining Services division, which includes some of the most experienced underground mining specialists.”

Electro Optic Systems Holdings Ltd (ASX: EOS)

The EOS share price is up 13% to $8.24. This has been driven by news that the defence and space company has won another contract. EOS has received a new $32 million order for its R400 Remote Weapon System (RWS) from a North American prime contractor supplying Light Armoured Vehicles (LAVs) to an end-user in South America. The undisclosed customer is described as a large, investment-grade defence manufacturer. Management notes that the RWS is being supplied by EOS in a ground-to-ground configuration. The systems will be manufactured at its manufacturing facility in Canberra during 2026 and 2027.

Maas Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: MGH)

The Maas Group share price is up 8% to $4.86. Investors have been buying its shares after it entered into an agreement with sovereign AI Factory builder and operator Firmus Technologies. This is for the delivery of turnkey modular electrical infrastructure for Firmus’ first 100MW Launceston AI Factory cluster. The Australian construction materials, equipment and service provider advised that the agreement has an estimated total value of approximately $200 million.

The post Why 4DMedical, Develop Global, EOS, and Maas shares are racing higher today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Electro Optic Systems. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The Downer EDI Ltd (ASX: DOW) share price is in focus today after the company was selected as the preferred contractor for major New Zealand state highway road maintenance contracts. These agreements are estimated to bring in around NZ$870 million in revenue over coming years, boosting Downer’s position in the local infrastructure sector.

What did Downer EDI report?

• Selected as preferred contractor for four NZ Transport Agency Waka Kotahi (NZTA) road maintenance contracts
• Contracts cover Central Waikato (10 years), Taranaki (three years), Tairawhiti (three years), and Coastal Otago (10 years)
• Estimated total revenue of NZ$870 million over the contracted periods, to be finalised during negotiations
• Services include routine and emergency response, pavement and surfacing renewals, drainage and environmental maintenance
• Contracts commence May 2026, subject to final terms and agreements

What else do investors need to know?

Downer has reinforced its reputation in New Zealand’s critical road maintenance sector, deepening its longstanding partnership with NZTA. The scope of works covers comprehensive upkeep, renewals, and emergency response for major highway networks, aligning with Downer’s strengths in integrated services.

The new contracts extend Downer’s already substantial operations, highlighting its presence across 50,000km of urban and rural roads in both Australia and New Zealand. The business expects to cement its market leadership and continue delivering reliable services for government clients.

What did Downer EDI management say?

Downer’s Chief Executive Officer, Peter Tompkins, said:

Downer maintains more than 50,000km of urban and rural networks across New Zealand and Australia. These state highway contracts extend Downer’s long-standing relationship with NZTA. We are proud of this partnership and the outcomes we have achieved together – maximising value from network assets, while providing safe, reliable and accessible journeys for road users, and keeping New Zealand people and economies moving.

What’s next for Downer EDI?

The company is now working through the final contract terms, with works due to kick off from May 2026. Investors can watch for updates as commercial details are finalised and as Downer integrates the contracts into its broader service portfolio.

With continued demand for infrastructure services on both sides of the Tasman, Downer is well-positioned to benefit from ongoing investment in roads, essential services, and government-led projects in coming years.

Downer EDI share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Downer EDI shares have soared 46%, outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 6% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post Downer EDI wins $870m NZ highway maintenance contracts: What investors need to know appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips. This article was prepared with the assistance of Large Language Model (LLM) tools for the initial summary of the company announcement. Any content assisted by AI is subject to our robust human-in-the-loop quality control framework, involving thorough review, substantial editing, and fact-checking by our experienced writers and editors holding appropriate credentials. The Motley Fool Australia stands behind the work of our editorial team and takes ultimate responsibility for the content published by The Motley Fool Australia.

Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) shares are slipping today.

Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) energy stock closed yesterday trading for $6.10. During the Friday lunch hour, shares are swapping hands for $6.03 each, down 1.2%.

For some context, the ASX 200 is up 0.5% at this same time.

That’s today’s Santos share price action for you.

Now here’s who’s taking the reins as Santos’ new chief financial officer (CFO).

New CFO steps in today

In an ASX release marked as non-price sensitive to Santos shares, the company announced this morning that Lachlan Harris has been appointed CFO, effective immediately.

Harris has 15 years of experience with Santos and was appointed acting CFO in October.

He was reported to have held a range of leadership positions, including across treasury, finance systems, and risk. Most recently, Harris served as deputy CFO and treasurer.

“I am pleased to confirm Lachlan’s appointment as CFO,” Santos CEO Kevin Gallagher said. “He has a deep knowledge of our business and the complex markets in which we operate.”

Gallagher noted:

Throughout his career at Santos, he has built a reputation with the board, management team, investors and capital markets for his financial acumen, analytical approach, strong risk mindset and leadership capability.

And with a nod to Lachlan’s potential to help support Santos shares over the longer term, Gallagher added:

Lachlan also has a proven track record of driving major initiatives at Santos. Most recently, he led our US$1 billion 10 year-bond offering, which was significantly oversubscribed.

With his experience and capability, Lachlan is well positioned to take on the role of CFO and support the business to maintain its laser focus on executing our strategy, in accordance with our disciplined low-cost operating model and capital allocation framework, to deliver long-term value for our shareholders.

What’s been happening with Santos shares?

On 16 October, Santos released its quarterly update covering the three months to 30 September.

Over the quarter, the ASX 200 energy share generated US$300 million in free cash flow. That brought the company’s year-to-date free cash flow from operations to US$1.4 billion.

And sales revenue of US$1.1 billion for the quarter saw year-to-date revenue reach US$3.7 billion.

Commenting on those results on the day, Gallagher said:

Our focus on operational excellence and our disciplined low-cost operating model has been crucial to achieving these results. With around $1.4 billion of free cash flow from operations generated year-to-date, Santos is well positioned to deliver strong shareholder returns with imminent production growth as we bring Barossa LNG online and move closer to the start-up of Pikka.

Santos shares closed up 0.8% on the day.

The post Buying Santos shares? Meet your new CFO appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The Downer EDI Ltd (ASX: DOW) share price is heading higher on Friday. This comes after the infrastructure group flagged another large contract win across New Zealand.

At the time of writing, Downer shares are up 0.89% to $7.94. In comparison, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is also rising by 0.5% following modest gains on Wall Street overnight.

What was announced?

According to the release, Downer confirmed that it has been selected as the preferred contractor for four New Zealand state highway maintenance contracts awarded by the NZ Transport Agency, Waka Kotahi.

Subject to final contract terms, the work is scheduled to commence in May 2026 and will cover state highway networks in Central Waikato, Taranaki, Tairāwhiti, and Coastal Otago.

The contracts will span anywhere between 3 to 10 years. Downer estimates that it will receive around NZ$870 million (roughly A$760 million) in revenue from the early stages of the four regions.

The scope of work includes routine and non-routine inspections, pavement and surfacing renewals, drainage maintenance, traffic services, environmental maintenance, and emergency response.

Why this matters

The announcement isn’t transformational, but it does reinforce Downer’s position in these markets.

This is ongoing road maintenance work rather than large construction projects, which aligns with the company’s focus in recent years on execution and margins.

Management also noted it already maintains more than 50,000 kilometres of road networks across Australia and New Zealand. That track record is often an advantage when governments are selecting contractors for essential maintenance road works.

Building on recent momentum

This update sits alongside a series of recent contract wins and operational improvements.

Downer has also continued to return capital to shareholders, with buybacks supporting earnings per share. Broker views have shifted gradually as a result, with some price targets raised following the company’s recent updates and briefings.

As a result, Macquarie lifted its price target by 11% to $8.50, while UBS notched up its target by 6.7% to $8.

Key takeaway

The market response to the announcement has been subtle, which probably reflects the nature of the update.

This announcement doesn’t change the near-term outlook for Downer, but it does add to the company’s base of long-term contracted work. It also fits with the way the business has been positioned in recent years, with a clear focus on execution, margin control, and earnings visibility.

For me, it doesn’t shift the buy or sell view. It’s another reminder that Downer is a steady, long-term infrastructure business.

The post Downer shares edge higher after New Zealand contract win appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Peter Warren Automotive Holdings Ltd (ASX: PWR) shares climbed around 5% today after the dealership group announced a major move to acquire Wakeling Automotive for $28 million.

Wakeling Automotive is a large multi-franchised dealer network operating across Macarthur, Wollongong, Shellharbour, and Moss Vale in NSW. It represents 16 popular car brands, including Hyundai, Kia, Mitsubishi, Nissan, Honda, Suzuki, Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, and Isuzu Ute.

The acquisition materially increases Peter Warren’s presence in one of Australia’s fastest-growing automotive regions.

The purchase price of approximately $28 million is funded through existing debt facilities and includes a significant goodwill component ($21.7 million of goodwill) as well as net assets at completion.

Why investors like this deal

This acquisition adds scale for Peter Warren, and management expects the deal to be immediately EPS accretive, even after funding costs. Wakeling Automotive generates roughly $500 million in annual turnover and employs around 370 staff. Peter Warren itself had revenue of $2,483 million in FY25.

It also complements Peter Warren’s existing Western Sydney operations. With the senior Wakeling team joining Peter Warren to continue running day-to-day operations, it reduces execution risk and preserves the culture of the 40-year-old family business.

Peter Warren CEO Andrew Doyle highlighted that the acquisition strengthens Peter Warren’s growing network and aligns with the group’s long-term consolidation strategy across the eastern seaboard. For investors, it reinforces the narrative that Peter Warren is emerging as a serious consolidator in the dealership landscape.

ASX All Ords share bottom line

Peter Warren is gaining scale in a key region, and while the transaction is still subject to ACCC and OEM approvals, today’s share price move suggests the market sees it as a smart, earnings-enhancing step forward.

Peter Warren shares are up 21% year to date and have a dividend yield of approximately 3%.

The post Here’s why a major NSW acquisition just sent Peter Warren shares higher appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO), Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG), and BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares could face some fresh headwinds in 2026.

That’s according to a rather bearish iron ore price forecast from the analysts at Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC).

Although Rio Tinto and BHP shares are deriving a growing amount of revenue from copper, iron ore remains the top revenue earner for all three S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) mining giants.

The iron ore price has been surprisingly resilient in 2025.

After briefly dropping below US$94 per tonne in early July, the industrial metal is currently trading at just over US$105 per tonne.

But that resilience may not last next year.

2026 iron ore price plunge could hamper BHP shares

Investors in BHP shares and rival ASX 200 mining stocks like Fortescue and Rio Tinto likely know to keep a close eye on what’s happening in China, the world’s top iron ore importer and steel maker.

And Westpac has cautioned that a large forecast increase in global iron ore supplies in 2026, coupled with material reductions in Chinese steel production, could trigger a 20% fall in the iron ore price (courtesy of The Australian Financial Review).

Citing similar market conditions to mid-2024, which led to a 21% fall in the iron ore price, Westpac senior economist Justin Smirk said:

This does give us more confidence in our expectations of a correction in iron ore prices as we move into 2026. We are forecasting a 20% fall in iron ore to US$83 a tonne by end of 2026.

What are other top analysts forecasting?

In potentially better news for investors in Rio Tinto, Fortescue, and BHP shares, Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) isn’t quite as bearish in its 2026 forecast for the industrial metal.

But CBA does believe that increased supply from the massive Simandou iron ore project in Guinea and sluggish demand from China will see the price of iron ore fall below US$100 per tonne in 2026.

Barrenjoey recently reasserted its own forecast of US$100 per tonne in 2026, with a retrace to US$98 per tonne in 2027.

How have Fortescue, Rio Tinto, and BHP shares been tracking?

Amid the resurgent iron ore price since early June, the big three ASX 200 mining stocks have had a strong six-month run.

Over the past six months, the ASX 200 has gained 1.2%.

Here’s how these miners have fared over this same period:

• BHP shares are up 24%
• Fortescue shares are up 51.4%
• Rio Tinto shares are up 38.4%

The post Buying Rio Tinto, Fortescue and BHP shares? Here’s Westpac’s sobering 2026 iron ore price forecast appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.