• How these tailwinds could re-energise ASX 200 energy shares in 2024

    Worker inspecting oil and gas pipeline.

    Worker inspecting oil and gas pipeline.

    S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) energy shares are losing ground today.

    Here’s how these top three ASX 200 energy stocks are performing in afternoon trade on Tuesday:

    • Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) shares are down 0.6%
    • Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) shares are down 0.6%
    • Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) shares are down 1.5%

    For some context, the ASX 200 is down 0.1% at this same time.

    ASX 200 energy shares have faced headwinds since oil and gas prices began to retrace at the end of September.

    On 27 September, Brent crude oil was trading for US$97 per barrel. By 2 January the price of that same barrel had dropped to US$76.

    While the oil price as ticked up from there, currently trading for US$82.69 per barrel, Brent slipped about 0.1% overnight, potentially pressuring the big Aussie oil and gas stocks today.

    But there are some potential tailwinds brewing that could yet mean there’s a turnaround in their fortunes in 2024.

    Tailwinds brewing for ASX 200 energy shares

    The first tailwind that could help boost oil prices, and by connection ASX 200 energy shares, is the latest production announcement from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+).

    This week OPEC+ announced it would extend the existing voluntary agreement to reduce the cartel’s combined output by some two million barrels per day. The new agreement runs through the end of June.

    As the move was widely expected and priced into markets already, oil price reactions were subdued.

    But with global oil demand expected to modestly increase in 2024, the ongoing production cuts could lead to higher oil prices in the second half of 2024 if stockpiles get drawn down.

    With the United States economy continuing on its growth trajectory, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that demand in the world’s top economy will increase in 2024, to 20.39 million barrels per day, up from 2023’s 20.23 million barrels per day.

    On a global level, Goldman Sachs is forecasting a demand increase of around 1.5% for 2024.

    While that’s not a huge increase, with the ongoing OPEC+ production cuts I believe we could see crude oil head back towards US$90 per barrel in the second half of the year, boosting revenues for ASX 200 energy shares.

    An additional upside risk for global oil prices, one that no one wishes to see eventuate, is any major escalation in the Red Sea conflict. Should those shipping corridors get shut down, oil prices could easily surpass US$100 per barrel.

    As for natural gas, which makes up a large part of the revenues earned by ASX 200 energy shares like Woodside, Santos and Beach, the EIA reported, “We expect the US benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023.”

    The post How these tailwinds could re-energise ASX 200 energy shares in 2024 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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    Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goldman Sachs Group. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Buy Domino’s shares for a 50% return and attractive dividend yield

    Two parents and two children happily eat pizza in their kitchen as a top broker predicts a 46% upside for the Domino's share price

    Two parents and two children happily eat pizza in their kitchen as a top broker predicts a 46% upside for the Domino's share price

    If you’re wanting a combination of big returns and a decent dividend yield, then Domino’s Pizza Enterprises Ltd (ASX: DMP) shares could be the way to do it.

    That’s the view of analysts at Morgan Stanley, which believe the pizza chain operator’s shares are great value at current levels.

    What is the broker saying about Domino’s shares?

    According to a recent note out of the investment bank, its analysts have an outperform rating and $68.00 price target on its shares.

    Based on its current share price of $45.20, this implies potential upside of 50% for investors over the next 12 months.

    To put that into context, if Morgan Stanley is on the money with its recommendation, a $10,000 investment would be worth $15,000 by this time next year.

    Why is it bullish?

    The broker believes that the market is too negative on the company’s margin outlook. It highlights that the consensus view is that its margins are now structurally lower compared to pre-COVID levels.

    However, it sees scope for margins to recover from improved store profitability, lower food costs, and restructuring benefits. In respect to food costs, it estimates that inflationary pressures on these costs have wiped off 2% from its margins.

    All in all, the broker believes that “FY24 will be an inflection point for key share price drivers.”

    Dividends

    But the returns won’t stop at share price gains, Domino’s is a consistent dividend payer.

    Morgan Stanley is expecting a $1.21 per share dividend in FY 2024, which represents an attractive 2.7% dividend yield. This would mean dividends of $270 from a $10,000 investment.

    And if you’re willing to hold on, you can expect an even better yield next year according to Morgan Stanley. It has pencilled in dividends per share of $1.82 in FY 2025, which would mean a 4% dividend yield for investors.

    The post Buy Domino’s shares for a 50% return and attractive dividend yield appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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    Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Domino’s Pizza Enterprises. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Domino’s Pizza Enterprises. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Domino’s Pizza Enterprises. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Here’s the Fortescue dividend forecast through to 2026

    A mature aged man with grey hair and glasses holds a fan of Australian hundred dollar bills up against his mouth and looks skywards with his eyes as though he is thinking what he might do with the cash.A mature aged man with grey hair and glasses holds a fan of Australian hundred dollar bills up against his mouth and looks skywards with his eyes as though he is thinking what he might do with the cash.

    The Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) dividend declared this earnings season was by far the most impressive of the three major ASX 200 mining shares.

    The interim Fortescue dividend for 1H FY24 is a fully franked $1.08 per share, which is 44% higher than the interim dividend of FY23.

    That’s some significantly turbocharged passive income, and it also represents one of the biggest dividend boosts of all the ASX 200 shares this earnings season.

    Based on the current Fortescue share price of $25.91, the interim dividend yield is 4.17%. That’s higher than the 4% average that most ASX 200 stocks pay over an entire 12-month period.

    By comparison, Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) announced a fully franked final dividend of US$2.58 per share for 2H FY23, which is up 14%. That’s $3.97 in Australian currency at the time of writing.

    Based on the current Rio Tinto share price of $124.96, that’s a yield of 3.18%.

    BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) cut its interim dividend by 20%. The ‘Big Australian’ will pay a fully franked interim dividend of 72 US cents per share for 1H FY24, or $1.11 in Aussie terms.

    Based on the current BHP share price of $44.81, that’s a yield of 2.48%.

    Why did Fortescue pay more?

    One reason is that Fortescue’s earnings were superior, in terms of growth, to BHP and Rio Tinto.

    This was partly because Fortescue is an iron ore pure-play stock. Therefore, it benefitted more from the strong iron ore price.

    By comparison, BHP and Rio are diversified miners. Weaker commodity prices for the other metals and minerals they dig up impacted their earnings.

    What’s next for the Fortescue dividend?

    Of course, Fortescue and the other two major ASX 200 miners will pay another dividend later in the year.

    The consensus forecast published on CommSec today is for Fortescue to pay a final dividend of $1.09 for 2H FY24.

    That will mean a total full-year dividend of $2.17 per share and a total yield of 8.37%.

    Analysts predict a significant dividend drop in 2025 and 2026

    The Fortescue dividend forecast for 2025 is much lower at $1.495 per share.

    For investors buying Fortescue shares at today’s price of $25.91, the 2025 forecast dividend represents a yield of 5.77%.

    For 2026, the forecast Fortescue dividend is $1.03 per share, equating to a yield of 3.97%.

    The post Here’s the Fortescue dividend forecast through to 2026 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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    *Returns as of 1 February 2024

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    Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has positions in BHP Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • What Dutton’s nuclear push could mean for ASX uranium shares

    A worker with a clipboard stands in front of a nuclear energy facility

    A worker with a clipboard stands in front of a nuclear energy facility

    After a very strong year-long run, ASX uranium shares have come under selling pressure over the past month.

    Amid some likely profit-taking and investor concerns that the rally may have gotten ahead of itself, here’s how these leading uranium stocks have performed since this time last month:

    • Paladin Energy Ltd (ASX: PDN) shares are down 12.3%
    • Bannerman Energy Ltd (ASX: BMN) shares are down 17.5%
    • Deep Yellow Limited (ASX: DYL) shares are down 19.4%
    • Boss Energy Ltd (ASX: BOE) shares are down 20.7%
    • Alligator Energy Ltd (ASX: AGE) shares are down 31.3%

    For some context, the All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XAO) has gained 1.8% over the last month.

    While these are some hefty losses for investors buying last month, long-term investors should still be sitting on some outsized gains.

    Here are the returns from these same ASX uranium shares over the past 12 months:

    • Paladin shares are up 67.6%
    • Bannerman shares are up 69.3%
    • Deep Yellow shares are up 91.2%
    • Boss Energy shares are up 89.6%
    • Alligator Energy shares are up 37.5%

    The All Ords is up 6.1% over this time period.

    With these moves in mind, what might the nuclear energy push from opposition leader Peter Dutton mean for Aussie uranium stocks over the longer term?

    ASX uranium shares slip despite Dutton’s nuclear proposal

    In a proposal that’s firing up some heated debate, Dutton is backing nuclear energy to provide reliable baseload power to support wind and solar as Australia transitions from coal and gas-fired plants.

    The Liberal Party’s policy was reported to likely include not only smaller modular type nuclear plants but also larger capacity next generation reactors.

    “As we go from coal to a new system, we need to make sure that we can firm up the renewables that are in the system,” Dutton said (quoted by The Northwest Star).

    Now even if Australia opts to eventually embrace nuclear power, ASX uranium shares are unlikely to see any domestic demand for their product for many years yet.

    But if Dutton’s proposals are eventually enacted, Australia will join a growing list of major economies that are embracing nuclear energy to reduce emissions while keeping the lights on.

    At December’s United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) 22 nations, including the United States, Japan and France, pledged to triple their nuclear power capacity by 2050. And the world’s two most populous nations, India and China, are leading the world in the construction of new nuclear power plants.

    “Some of the smartest minds in the world have picked up what is a revolution within energy,” Dutton said earlier today in his push for Australia to do the same.

    Whether it makes economic sense for Australia to do so remains to be seen.

    But over the longer-term ASX uranium shares should continue to see growing demand for the nuclear fuel they dig from the ground.

    According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the world will need to double its nuclear capacity by 2050 to meet the current climate goals.

    The post What Dutton’s nuclear push could mean for ASX uranium shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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    *Returns as of 1 February 2024

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    Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Building approvals down, and economic growth at risk: Scott Phillips on Nine’s Late News

    Screenshot from a media appearance ofScott Phillips on Nine NewsScreenshot from a media appearance ofScott Phillips on Nine News

    Motley Fool Australia Chief Investment Officer Scott Phillips joined Natalia Cooper for Nine’s Late News on Monday night to discuss falling building approvals and the challenges facing the economy as businesses destock, putting pressure on GDP growth.  

    [youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FwoVreUQx8c?feature=oembed&w=500&h=281]

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  • Why Coles, Liontown, Lovisa, and Wildcat shares are dropping today

    Three guys in shirts and ties give the thumbs down.

    In afternoon trade, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has recovered from a poor start and is in positive territory. At the time of writing, the benchmark index is up 0.1% to 7,741 points.

    Four ASX shares that have failed to follow the market’s lead today are listed below. Here’s why they are falling:

    Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL)

    The Coles share price is down 3.5% to $16.43. This has been driven by the supermarket giant’s shares going ex-dividend on Tuesday. Eligible shareholders can now look forward to receiving Coles’ fully franked interim dividend of 36 cents per share later this month. It is scheduled to be paid on 27 March.

    Liontown Resources Ltd (ASX: LTR)

    The Liontown share price is down 4% to $1.27. This is despite there being no news out of the lithium developer today. However, it is worth noting that most lithium shares are falling on Tuesday. This could be due to profit taking after some strong gains or concerns over an update from Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA), which revealed a slump in car shipments.

    Lovisa Holdings Ltd (ASX: LOV)

    The Lovisa share price is down 4% to $30.32. Like Coles, this has been driven by its shares going ex-dividend this morning. Eligible shareholders will be paid the fashion jewellery retailer’s 50 cents per share interim dividend next month on 18 April. In addition, with its shares generating big returns recently, it’s possible that some profit taking is taking place now the dividend rights are settled.

    Wildcat Resources Ltd (ASX: WC8)

    The Wildcat share price is down over 12% to 68 cents. This follows the release of drilling results from the lithium explorer’s Tabba Tabba project. Investors appear to be a touch disappointed with the low grade results.

    The post Why Coles, Liontown, Lovisa, and Wildcat shares are dropping today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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    *Returns as of 1 February 2024

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    Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Lovisa. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Lovisa and Tesla. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Coles Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Lovisa. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • An 8% yield on CBA shares? Here’s how these passive income investors achieved it!

    Man holding Australian dollar notes, symbolising dividends.Man holding Australian dollar notes, symbolising dividends.

    Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares closed yesterday at a new all-time high of $118.12.

    In early afternoon trade on Tuesday, shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) bank stock have slipped a touch from those levels, trading for $118.10 apiece.

    Despite numerous analysts cautioning that the biggest of Australia’s banks trades at an unjustifiable premium to its peers, investors have continued to hit the buy button since CommBank reported its half-year results on 14 February.

    The highlight of those results for passive income investors was the 2.4% year on year boost to CBA’s interim dividend. That came out at $2.15 per share, fully franked. Eligible investors can expect to see this hit their bank account on 28 March.

    Atop the boosted interim dividend, CBA’s final dividend of $2.40 per share (paid on 28 September), was up 14.3% from the prior final dividend.

    With the full-year payout of $4.55 per share, CBA shares trade on a fully franked trailing yield of 3.9%.

    So, how are some passive income investors earning a 7.9% yield?

    Buying CBA shares when everyone is selling

    Not many ASX 200 investors were buying stocks during the final weeks of the COVID-19 market meltdown in 2020. Hence the 33% plunge in the benchmark index over a matter of weeks.

    Indeed, trying to time the market and buy in at the lows often sees investors sitting on the sidelines after the market has already turned around.

    But passive income investors who saw through the selling madness in early 2020 and swallowed their fears to buy quality, beaten-down stocks at absolute bargain levels tend to have been richly rewarded for their bravery.

    Take CBA shares, for example.

    On 27 March 2020, the ASX 200 bank stock closed the day trading for $57.66 per share.

    And shares bought at that price will have earned the same $4.55 in fully franked dividends over the past 12 months as the shares bought at over $100 in 2023.

    Meaning those brave investors will be earning a 7.9% yield from the CBA shares bought at bargain basement prices.

    Not to mention the 105% share price gain they’ll have enjoyed since then!

    The post An 8% yield on CBA shares? Here’s how these passive income investors achieved it! appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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    *Returns as of 1 February 2024

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    Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Why DroneShield, Healius, Newmont, and Paragon Care shares are pushing higher

    A businessman looking at his digital tablet or strategy planning in hotel conference lobby. He is happy at achieving financial goals.

    A businessman looking at his digital tablet or strategy planning in hotel conference lobby. He is happy at achieving financial goals.

    In afternoon trade, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is edging higher. At the time of writing, the benchmark index is up slightly to 7,740.6 points.

    Four ASX shares that are rising more than most today are listed below. Here’s why they are climbing:

    DroneShield Ltd (ASX: DRO)

    The DroneShield share price is up 3% to 63.5 cents. This morning, analysts at Bell Potter upgraded this counter drone technology company’s shares to a buy rating with a 90 cents price target. This implies potential upside of over 40%.

    Healius Ltd (ASX: HLS)

    The Healius share price is up 13% to $1.27. This follows news that its CEO, Maxine Jaquet, has left the company with immediate effect. She has been replaced by the healthcare company’s chief financial officer, Paul Anderson. He will now lead a wide-ranging strategic review of its structure and assets. Healius shares are down approximately 50% over the last 12 months.

    Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM)

    The Newmont share price is up 5% to $51.19. Investors have been buying Newmont and other ASX gold shares on Tuesday after the gold price hit its highest level ever. According to CNBC, the gold futures contract for April gained 1.46% or US$30.60 to settle at US$2,126.30. This is the highest level since the contract’s creation in 1974. Rate cut optimism boosted the precious metal.

    Paragon Care Ltd (ASX: PGC)

    The Paragon Care share price is up almost 37% to 28 cents. This follows news that the healthcare supplier has agreed to merge with CH2 Holdings. It is a privately owned, Australian based distributor and wholesaler of pharmaceuticals, medical consumables, and complementary medicines. The combined entity is expected to have pro-forma revenues of $3.3 billion and EBITDA of $93 million in FY 2024.

    The post Why DroneShield, Healius, Newmont, and Paragon Care shares are pushing higher appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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    *Returns as of 1 February 2024

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    Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended DroneShield. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Why are ASX lithium shares like Pilbara Minerals crashing on Tuesday?

    a mine worker holds his phone in one hand and a tablet in the other as he stands in front of heavy machinery at a mine site.

    a mine worker holds his phone in one hand and a tablet in the other as he stands in front of heavy machinery at a mine site.

    Tuesday’s trading thus far has been bumpy. At the time of writing, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is essentially flat after spending time in both positive and negative territory today. But let’s talk about what’s going on with ASX lithium shares like Pilbara Minerals Ltd (ASX: PLS).

    Put simply, it’s been a horror day for lithium stocks. Take the Pilbara share price. It’s currently nursing a loss of 4.2% down at $4.22 a share.

    Sayona Mining Ltd (ASX: SYA) is down 4.44% to 4.3 cents, while Liontown Resources Ltd (ASX: LTR) shares have sunk 4.51% to $1.27.

    Core Lithium Ltd (ASX: CXO) and Arcadium Lithium plc (ASX: LTM) are faring a little better, but are still down 2.04% and 2.42% respectively.

    So why is this corner of the market seemingly getting singled out for punishment today?

    Why are ASX lithium stocks getting a Tuesday whack?

    Well, it’s not entirely clear. There hasn’t been any major news or announcements out of any ASX lithium stocks today that might explain this pessimism.

    Saying that, what happened in the US markets last night might give us the clue we need to decipher what’s going on in this space.

    Last night (out time) saw the share price of Albemarle Corporation (NYSE: ALB) tank by a nasty 6.75% down to US$133.20 a share. The company fell another 7.44% during after-hours trading down to US$123.15.

    Albemarle is one of the largest lithium companies in the world and often sets the tone for what happens on the ASX with our own lithium stocks. So this fall was never going to bode well for ASX lithium shares like Pilbara.

    It seems the reason behind Albemarle’s share price plunge was the news that the company is about to conduct a capital raise. According to an SEC filing, Albemarle plans on issuing 35 million new depository shares in order to raise US$1.9 billion.

    Albemarle stated the following regarding how it intends to use this US$1.9 billion:

    We intend to use the net proceeds of this offering for general corporate purposes, which may include, among other uses, funding growth capital expenditures, such as the construction and expansion of lithium operations in Australia and China that are significantly progressed or near completion, and repaying our outstanding commercial paper.

    Given the nature of this capital raise, it’s likely that the plummeting lithium prices we’ve seen in recent months are to blame for Albemarle’s evident lack of capital right now.

    ASX investors are probably sending our own lithium shares down so severely because if Albemarle, one of the world’s largest lithium stocks, needs to raise capital, then it is easy to assume the likes of Pilbara, Aradium, Liontown and Sayona are feeling the squeeze even more acutely.

    ASX investors may even be worried that any one of these ASX lithium shares could be next to come cap-in-hand to shareholders.

    Let’s see if this eventuates.

    The post Why are ASX lithium shares like Pilbara Minerals crashing on Tuesday? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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    Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Key takeouts for ASX shares this earnings season: CBA analysis

    A group of business people in a board room hear the latest company reportA group of business people in a board room hear the latest company report

    Profits were down amid strong inflation, high interest rates, and reined-in consumer spending, however, ASX shares still delivered generous dividends to investors this earnings season.

    CBA has released a note containing expert analysis on the latest earnings season from senior economist Ryan Felsman and chief economist Craig James.

    Let’s take a look at the details.

    What are the key takeaways?

    CBA said profits were weaker but ASX 200 shares still dished out generous dividends this season.

    In aggregate, the revenue of ASX shares increased by 3%, with 73% of companies reporting higher revenue. Expenses increased by 6%, with 83% of ASX shares reporting higher costs.

    Profits declined by 35% in aggregate, with 49.6% of ASX shares reporting higher profits vs. the long-term average of 58%.

    Almost 81% of companies made a profit vs. the long-term average of 87%. CBA says this is the lowest percentage of companies reporting a profit in seven reporting seasons.

    Aggregate cash holdings fell by 25%. Total cash reported was $196 billion, down from $250 billion in the February 2023 reporting season. About 53% of ASX shares reported higher cash holdings.

    What about dividends?

    Despite the profit and cash holdings declines, ASX 200 shares still paid generous dividends this earnings season, totalling $33.9 billion. This is just 2% lower than the dividends paid in the February 2023 season.

    In total, 83% of companies declared a dividend vs. the long-term average of 85%.

    ASX shares that have historically paid dividends but did not this season include Pilbara Minerals Ltd (ASX: PLS), James Hardie Industries plc (ASX: JHX), Adbri Ltd (ASX: ABC), and Alumina Ltd (ASX: AWC).

    Among the stocks paying a dividend, 52% of them are paying a higher amount this time around. Almost 20% of reporting companies kept their dividends steady and 29% cut their dividends.

    Major themes of the reporting season

    Felsman and James said there were a number of key themes among ASX shares reports this season.

    These themes included moderating food inflation, lower airfares, reduced demand for gaming services, lower commodity prices, and artificial intelligence (AI) proliferation.

    There was a positive outlook for housing and building activity. However, the real estate investment trusts (REITs) continued to write down the value of assets, especially office blocks.

    The economists noted resilience among many ASX retailers, including JB Hi-Fi Ltd (ASX: JBH), Lovisa Holdings Ltd (ASX: LOV), Universal Store Holdings Ltd (ASX: UNI), and Nick Scali Limited (ASX: NCK).

    They said:

    … in a surprising sign of strength, Consumer Discretionary shares jumped 8.2 per cent in February at a time when borrowing costs and inflation are high, pressuring consumer sentiment and demand.

    Retailers cleared excess stock, input costs generally eased and shops engaged in price discounting, with margins defended.

    What did ASX shares bosses say?

    Many CEOs described economic conditions as challenging but said their businesses had been resilient.

    Felsman and James said:

    By no means have companies been downbeat.

    Many companies have highlighted their ability to ride out the period punctuated by higher interest rates, cost of living ‘crisis’, inflation and geopolitical uncertainty.

    The economists noted that many companies were “relatively restrained” in providing forward guidance for the second half of 2024.

    A number of company bosses noted the likelihood of interest rate cuts ahead.

    Felsman and James said this would be a particular tailwind for ASX financial stocks and property stocks.

    They commented:

    Companies with a solid record of earnings delivery were rewarded during the reporting season with professional investors looking to rotate out of defensive company exposures with pricing power and strong balance sheets into quality cyclical stocks given the more constructive outlook.

    What now for ASX shares?

    The CBA experts said the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is now 16.2 times, which is above the long-term average.

    The 12-month forward dividend yield is 4%, which is below the average.

    Felsman and James said:

    Large cap valuation metrics are less attractive than small cap metrics with emerging companies positioned to benefit from an eventual easing in financial conditions, a soft economic landing, moderating inflation and lower borrowing costs.

    We expect the Aussie sharemarket to drift through to mid-year as rate cut validation is amassed.

    The S&P/ASX 200 index is expected to be trading in 7,750-8,050 point range near the close of 2024.

    Want to know more about earnings season?

    Income investors might like to check out 9 ASX shares that delivered some of the biggest dividend boosts of the season.

    They included AGL Energy Limited (ASX: AGL), Corporate Travel Management Ltd (ASX: CTD), Inghams Group Ltd (ASX: ING), Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG) and QBE Insurance Group Ltd (ASX: QBE).

    We’ve also profiled a dozen ASX shares that reported the biggest profit jumps of earnings season.

    The post Key takeouts for ASX shares this earnings season: CBA analysis appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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    Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has positions in Alumina and Nick Scali. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Corporate Travel Management and Lovisa. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Corporate Travel Management, Jb Hi-Fi, Lovisa, and Nick Scali. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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