Analysts are divided about the value of shares in Greatland Resources Ltd (ASX: GGP), after the company this week announced the outcome of a prefeasibility study at its Havieron project in Western Australia this week.

Greatland on Monday said the PFS had confirmed Havieron’s “pathway to a world-class, long-life, lowest-quartile cost Australian gold-copper mine, leveraging existing Telfer infrastructure”.  

Path to new mine clear

Greatland bought the operating Telfer mine from Newmont (ASX: NEM) in late 2024, having earlier discovered the nearby Havieron deposit in 2018, which it developed as a joint venture with Newcrest and then Newmont, before acquiring the project outright also in 2024.

The company said in a release to the ASX on Monday that Havieron was expected to generate steady state pre-tax cash flow of $739 million per year, and would aim to produce 266,000 ounces of gold per year.

The company expected to produce the first gold from the mine about two and a half years after making a final investment decision on the project, which would cost $1.065 billion to bring into production. The initial mine life has been estimated at 17 years.

Analysts divided on share price targets

The teams at Jarden and Macquarie have run the ruler over this week’s announcement, and have come up with very different results.

Macquarie has an outperform rating on Greatland shares, and a 12-month price target of $10.50, for a 39.1% return from current levels.

The Macquarie analysts said the release this week beat consensus estimates for production costs at Havieron and the speed at which it would ramp up to steady state production.

They went on to say:

We think further upside to Havieron could be revealed in time, as Greatland explores Telfer extensions and integration.

The team at Jarden were not so convinced however, saying the base case outcomes for the Havieron study were below their estimates.

The Jarden analysts explained that they also had doubts around the time it would take to permit the project.

So, what were the key differences versus our ingoing forecasts that caused the decline in valuation? We remain cautious over the Greatland permitting timelines (which appear aspirational in our view), and have pushed out first production into FY29.

The Jarden team said the prefeasibility study largely confirmed that Havieron was a “high quality project”, and that the “abundant” cash generation from Telfer had largely derisked its development program.

But they believe Telfer will shortly deplete its high grade or stockpiles, increasing the challenge of keeping its mills operating at full strength.

The Jarden analysts have a price target of just $5 on Greatland shares, which would be a 39.9% decline from Monday’s closing price of $8.32.

The post Analysts split on whether this gold stock will go up – or down – 40% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday

Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The ASX small-cap stock Gentrack Group Ltd (ASX: GTK) may not be a big business but it looks like it has large potential.

It offers software for both utility businesses and airports. Some of its clients include Engie, EON, Amber, Melbourne Airport, Sydney Airport, London Gatwick Airport, JFK Airport, Edinburgh Airport, Brisbane Airport, Seattle-Tacoma Airport and Launceston Airport.

As a software provider for essential businesses, I think it has a largely defensive earnings base, with good prospects for further growth. As long as it continues investing in its software to ensure it maintains and grows its customer base, then the future looks bright for the company.

Better valuation

While the Gentrack share price has jumped in the last few weeks, it’s still down by around 30% over the past year, as the chart below shows.

I think the recent jump of the Gentrack share price is a good sign that the market is encouraged by what the business recently reported. But, it’s still a lot cheaper than it was a year ago.

As the saying goes, it’s better to ‘buy low’. With Gentrack’s share price still a lot lower, I think the ASX small-cap stock looks much more appealing, particularly with the company’s outlook for earnings growth.

Strong earnings growth outlook

The company’s FY25 result was solid, with 7.9% revenue growth (and 13% recurring revenue growth), 18% operating profit (EBITDA) growth and 119% net profit after tax (NPAT) growth. However, some of the net profit growth was due to a $3.2 million benefit from a positive change in foreign exchange rates.  

In the utilities segment, it’s expecting its software and support revenue to grow around 10% in FY26 after several recent go-lives and others “are expected”. It said it’s moving towards its medium-term growth target of more than 15%. Gentrack said its pipeline has matured considerably.

On the airport side of things, for FY26 it has “high visibility” to match FY25’s growth of 15% and a “strong pipeline that could see that accelerate”.

In the ASX small-cap stock’s outlook statement for FY26, the business wrote:

Based on the scale and maturity of our pipeline we are confident that revenue growth will be higher in FY26 than in FY25, but it is too early to provide further guidance.

With strong and growing engagement across EMEA and APAC, our proven track record and the market potential, we remain confident of our mid-term guidance of growing revenue more than 15% CAGR and an EBITDA margin of 15-20% after expensing all development costs.

I think the ASX small-cap stock is definitely one to watch for the foreseeable future.

The post Why I think this ASX small-cap stock is a bargain at $9! appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Gentrack Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Gentrack Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

As Australia enters the so-called ‘third era’ of commerce, Agentic commerce, Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) analysts have done a deep dive into how the new trend could disrupt the traditional retail sector and their ASX shares.

Is Agentic commerce going to replace the traditional ways consumers in Australia shop? Or is it just a new way for shoppers to discover new products?

What is Agentic commerce and how does it work?

Agentic commerce is a new method of online shopping where autonomous AI agents handle the entire purchase process for the customer. 

For example, a customer might ask the AI agent to find a product, such as a women’s outfit for a summer event, and the agent will locate suitable items at Universal Store Holdings Ltd (ASX: UNI) and assist in making the purchase and organising delivery.

Or, a customer could ask for a certain-sized coffee table to fit in a specific space, and the AI agent can assist in locating suitable options from ASX retail companies like Temple & Webster Ltd (ASX: TPW), Nick Scali Ltd (ASX: NCK), and Harvey Norman Ltd (ASX: HVN), make comparisons, and facilitate the purchase and shipping.

Unlike current AI tools that can offer assistance, Agentic commerce is an evolving model of shopping where autonomous AI agents act on behalf of consumers to handle the buying process with minimal human interaction.

How can it disrupt the traditional ASX retail sector?

Macquarie analysts explain that the internet and e-commerce have already enabled mass product discovery. However, Agentic search-powered discovery helps shoppers find what they want even if they cannot articulate exactly what. 

“This contrasts with traditional search which matches words. Agentic search matches meaning using neural embeddings to understand context. Moreover, it makes browsing conversational and natural, and the future of retail discovery,” Macquarie said.

Macquarie added: “The expectation is that AI is disruptive to traditional omni-channel retail as well as pure play verticals and marketplaces and could re-accelerate e-commerce growth because of better personalisation, discovery and curation.”

Macquarie also pointed out that traditional retail was built around stores, their merchandise offer, and proposition. Marketers then segmented shopping into consumption occasions and trip types. 

While this is still relevant, Agentic commerce is responsive to digital cues rather than physical or online product displays.

“In our opinion Agentic commerce will have a more significant impact on missions/trips than occasions. We expect the most disrupted missions will be Discover and Inspire where information demands are high and loyalty low. Discover missions will likely include expensive buyers (technology) and inspirational (beauty). Boring and cheap (essentials/staples) fit the Find mission and considered less contestable. Fun categories (sport) will fit the Discover mission,” Macquarie said.

The post Agentic commerce could disrupt the traditional ASX retail sector: Here’s why appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group and Temple & Webster Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Harvey Norman and Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Nick Scali, Temple & Webster Group, and Universal Store. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Knowing which ASX shares to avoid can be just as important as knowing which ones to buy if you want to maximise your returns.

With that in mind, it could be worth hearing what analysts are saying about the popular ASX shares listed below before you buy them.

Here are three popular ASX shares that have been named as sells, courtesy of The Bull:

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA)

The team at Medallion Financial Group thinks that Australia’s largest bank is still overvalued despite recent weakness. It highlights its lofty price to earnings ratio, modest dividend yield, and premium valuation as reasons to be cautious. It said:

While the CBA remains a solid business over the long term, the share price looks expensive at current levels. Recently trading on a price/earnings ratio of about 25 times and a modest dividend yield of about 3.15 per cent, its valuation sits well above global peers. Also, the company recently suffered its worst sell-off in four years following the release of first quarter results in fiscal year 2026, which flagged higher operating costs, a weaker net interest margin (NIM) and a lower-than-expected common equity tier 1 capital ratio of 11.8 per cent, which is still above the Australia Prudential Regulation Authority minimum of 10.25 per cent.

DroneShield Ltd (ASX: DRO)

Over at Red Leaf Securities, its analysts aren’t buying this counter drone technology company’s shares despite their crash last month. Red Lead has concerns that its shares could remain under pressure in the near term. It explains:

The company provides artificial intelligence based platforms for protection against advanced threats, such as drones and autonomous systems. The stock plunged after disclosures to the ASX revealed DRO directors had been selling their holdings. The company announced that November contracts were inadvertently marked as new ones rather than revised contracts due to an administrative error. In our view, such an error raises governance and confidence concerns among investors. The shares have fallen from $6.60 on October 9 to trade at $1.997 on November 27. We believe the shares will remain under pressure.

Monash IVF Group Ltd (ASX: MVF)

Finally, Red Leaf Securities also rates this fertility treatment company as sell.

It thinks that investors should be taking profit following a strong gain which was driven by a takeover proposal, which has since been rejected. It said:

MVF is a fertility services company. The company recently rejected a takeover offer of $312 million from a consortium comprising Genesis Capital at 80 cents a share. The Monash board unanimously determined that the takeover proposal materially undervalued Monash and was not in the best interests of company shareholders as a whole. Monash shares soared on news of the takeover proposal and closed at 88 cents on November 24. Prior to the proposal, Monash shares had been struggling this year after two embryo mix ups at its clinics in Melbourne and Brisbane negatively impacted its reputation. We suggest investors take advantage of the premium built into the takeover proposal and sell some stock. The shares were trading at 85.7 cents on November 27.

The post Analysts rate CBA and these popular ASX shares as sells appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended DroneShield. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

ASX retail shares are underperforming on Tuesday, with the S&P/ASX 200 Consumer Discretionary Index (ASX: XDJ) down 0.005% while the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XAO) is up 0.2%.

Last month, the market was shocked by inflation data that all but ruled out any further interest rate cuts in 2025.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that, for the 12 months to October, headline inflation increased by 3.8%, up from 3.6% in September, while trimmed mean inflation rose to 3.3%, up from 3.2%. Both were well above the bank’s target range of 2% to 3%.

Homeowners across Australia had been hoping for another rate cut when the Reserve Bank meets for the final time in 2025 next week.

Resurgent inflation is no good for retailers, but consumer confidence is still on the up after three interest rate cuts this year.

The Westpac/Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index surged above its 100-point confidence baseline for the first time since early 2022 last month.

The index rose 12.8% from 92.1 in October to 103.8 in November, so that bodes well for the critical Christmas retail period ahead.

Let’s take a look at some recent opinions from analysts on 3 ASX retail shares.

2 ASX retail shares to buy: experts

Breville Group Ltd (ASX: BRG)

The Breville share price is $29.81, down 2.3% at the time of writing.

Morgans notes a significant share price decline for the whitegoods and coffee machine manufacturer since its FY25 report in August.

BRG’s share price has retreated ~16% following the FY25 result, which we attribute to expectations of muted earnings growth in FY26 as the group navigates tariff-related margin pressure and an uncertain consumer discretionary backdrop.

However, we believe BRG’s premium positioning, strong focus on new product innovation, and leverage to the coffee category position it to better withstand these pressures.

We view recent weakness in BRG as an opportunity to build a position in a high-quality, well-managed business, with structural coffee tailwinds.

Morgans upgraded its rating on this ASX retail share to buy.

WEB Travel Group Ltd (ASX: WEB)

The WEB Travel share price is $4.85, down 0.5% at the time of writing.

Last week, WEB reported a 20% increase in revenue to $204.6 million and a 17% jump in underlying EBITDA to a record $81.7 million.

Morgans commented:

Pleasingly, WEB’s trading update was stronger than expected and top line growth has accelerated. FY26 guidance was slightly stronger than expected and we have upgraded our forecasts.

WEB’s outlook comments for FY27 were also upbeat.

The broker raised its rating on this ASX retail share to accumulate with a 12-month price target of $5.20.

Analyst says this stock is a sell

Accent Group Ltd (ASX: AX1)

The Accent share price is $1.02, up 1.7% on Tuesday.

On The Bull this week, Niv Dagan from Peak Asset Management revealed a sell rating on the footwear retailer.

The company recently downgraded earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) guidance for fiscal year 2026 to between $85 million and $95 million. The company generated EBIT of $110.2 million in full year 2025.

The retail environment remains challenging as cost-of-living pressures are driving consumers to defer discretionary purchases and seek value.

Accent shares have endured a tough year.

The ASX retail share is down 57% in the year to date, and dropped 18% over the past month alone.

Dagan added:

Despite the share price correction, valuation risk remains given the earnings downgrade and structural margin headwinds.

Near term catalysts are limited.

The post ASX retail shares: 2 to buy and 1 to sell amid rising inflation appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Accent Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Breville Group Ltd (ASX: BRG) shares could be in the buy zone right now according to one leading broker.

Let’s see what its analysts are saying about this ASX 200 stock.

Why is the broker bullish?

Macquarie notes that industry data is supportive of its bullish view on this stock. This includes strong sales growth reported by De’Longhi and Nespresso. It said:

De’Longhi Revenue was +11.5% LFL, including Household +6.0% with “high-single digit organic growth” in coffee. Nespresso Q3 organic revenue +8.5%, including +5.3% price. Double-digit growth in the US, was supported by innovation and marketing. In Europe, organic growth trends improved in France, Switzerland and UK & Ireland, including resilience in out-of-home. Growth was fuelled by innovation (limited editions, functional coffees, double espresso formats, accessories).

It was a similar story over at Williams Sonoma, with its kitchen segment performing positively. Macquarie adds:

Williams Sonoma Kitchen segment delivered +7.3% LFL revenue growth, selectively increasing prices. WSM are focused on bringing new, innovative and exclusive products to market, as it gives better pricing power. WSM also noted a lot of promotions. WSM have been pulling back on promotions actively and improving full priced selling. WSM noted they still have “not seen any pull-forward of anything,” with demand remaining broadly consistent.

Whirlpool’s Kitchen Aid segment sales were +9.5% (cc), driven by new product launches, including Auto Coffee and cordless. EBIT margin +~230bps yoy to 16.5%, driven by price/mix and D2C business growth. SharkNinja: Cooking & Beverage sales were +6.3%, driven by Ninja Luxe Café espresso, partially offset by a decline in the air fryer and outdoor grill sub-categories. Food Preparation sales were +11.9%, driven by the frozen drinks sub-category, specifically the SLUSHi.

In light of this, Macquarie feels confident with its earnings estimates continues to forecast EBITDA growth of 3.8% in FY 2026, 13.4% in FY 2027, and 12.5% in FY 2028.

Big returns from this ASX 200 stock

According to the note, Macquarie has retained its outperform rating and $39.20 price target on Breville’s shares.

Based on its current share price of $29.52, this implies potential upside of 33% for investors over the next 12 months. It also expects a 1.3% dividend yield, stretching the total potential return beyond 34%.

Commenting on its outperform recommendation, the broker said:

Outperform. The coffee segment, new market development and investment in new product development (NPD) continue to drive outperformance vs sector peers. We expect BRG to deliver 10%-plus compound revenue growth.

The post Macquarie says buy this ASX 200 stock for 30%+ return appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

By now, many ASX investors would make the connection between ‘NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) stock’ and ‘huge winner’. Nvidia’s gains over the past few years have been nothing short of legendary. This semiconductor stock has become nothing less than the most prominent face of the artificial intelligence (AI) boom.

If you hear someone say that they want to ‘invest in AI’, Nvidia stock will undoubtedly be a first port of call.

Today, Nvidia has a mind-boggling market capitalisation of US$4.37 trillion. It even became the first company in history to cross the US$5 trillion mark last month.

As such, I thought it would be a good time to examine just how much money investors in this company have made over the past three years. The results were truly staggering.

How much would $10k invested in NVIDIA stock in 2022 be worth today?

On 2 December 2022, Nvidia stock closed at US$16.88 a share. In actual fact, it was actually US$168.80, but the company undertook a 10-to-1 stock split in June last year, so we’ll compare apples to apples here.

So if an investor bought US$10,000 worth of shares at that price, they would have ended up with 592.42 shares.

This morning (our time), those same shares closed up shop at US$179.92 each. Our 592.42 shares would therefore have a current value of US$106,587.68 today. You can also add about US$50 for the dividends Nvidia stock paid out over those three years, too.

That makes Nvidia a verified 10-bagger in just three years, with our lucky investor enjoying an average compounded return of 120% per annum.

How to buy Nvidia on the ASX

Many ASX investors will look at that kind of return and wonder how they might get in on that action. Well, firstly, we should keep in mind that this represents the company’s past growth, not future potential. At a near US$5 trillion value, it is arguably almost impossible for Nvidia to maintain its 120% per annum growth rate that it has enjoyed since 2022 going forward.

Even so, this is clearly a fast-growing behemoth.

The easiest way to own Nvidia is by buying its shares on the US markets through an ASX broker. But if you don’t wish to do that, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are your next best bet. Any US-oriented ETF or index fund will have Nvidia stock as a top holding. That includes the iShares S&P 500 ETF (ASX: IVV) and the BetaShares Nasdaq 100 ETF (ASX: NDQ). Nvidia makes up about 7.4% and 9.3% of those funds, respectively, right now.

Another option is the Global X FANG+ ETF (ASX: FANG). As we discussed just this morning, FANG is a more concentrated fund exposing ASX investors to ten of the largest US tech stocks. Nvidia is naturally one of those ten, and takes up about 10% of FANG’s portfolio at present.

The post NVIDIA stock: You won’t believe how much $10,000 invested 3 years ago is worth today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended BetaShares Nasdaq 100 ETF, Nvidia, and iShares S&P 500 ETF. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended BetaShares Nasdaq 100 ETF. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Nvidia and iShares S&P 500 ETF. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

After a decidedly rough year, CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) shares enjoyed a welcome month of outperformance in November.

On 31 October, shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) biotech stock closed trading for $178.50. When the closing bell sounded on 28 November, shares were changing hands for $186.30 apiece.

This saw CSL shares up 4.4% for the month, handily outperforming the 3% loss posted by the ASX 200 over this same time.

What’s been lifting CSL shares?

With the ASX 200 healthcare stock down some 35% over 12 months, an increasing number of analysts believe the $88 billion company is now trading at a long-term bargain.

Consensus recommendations on CommSec reveal twelve analysts with a strong buy recommendation, two with a moderate buy, and four with hold recommendations. There are currently no sell recommendations on CSL shares.

Morgans is among the bulls here, with the broker recently reiterating its buy rating on the stock with a $249.51 price target. That’s some 27% above current levels.

What else happened with the ASX 200 biotech stock in November?

Atop positive analyst coverage, CSL shares attracted investor interest following the company’s Capital Markets Day on 5 November.

The company used the opportunity to highlight the tremendous 10-year growth achieved by its Seqirus influenza divisions. Revenue at Seqirus has increased from $751 million in FY 2016 to an estimated $2 billion in FY 2025. That represents a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.3%.

Management also noted that CSL Seqirus held a 42% share of the global influenza vaccine market in 2025.

And in the event of another global pandemic outbreak, CSL shares could rocket.

That’s because the company said it could produce 500 million pandemic doses within the first four months of an outbreak. Should we see a global influenza outbreak, CSL estimates it would earn more than $3.5 billion in pandemic revenue. (Though let’s hope it doesn’t come to that again!)

November also saw the company announce that it will invest US$1.5 billion to manufacture plasma-derived therapies in the United States.

Among other benefits, this should exempt CSL from US pharmaceutical tariffs that Donald Trump is expected to impose on imports.

Commenting on the major US investment on the day, CSL managing director and CEO Paul McKenzie said:

The US is the world’s leading source for plasma, the main component of plasma derived therapies. These important medicines are often the most effective or only therapies available for many rare or serious diseases.

Halfway through the second trading day of December, CSL shares are down 2% in the new month.

The post What happened with CSL shares in November? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Metcash Ltd (ASX: MTS) shares are trading in the red again on Tuesday afternoon. At the time of writing the share price is 0.6% lower at $3.34 a piece. The shares are now down 9.49% since the ASX opened on yesterday morning. Over the past month Metcash shares have plummeted 12.79%.

Trading in Metcash shares, and around 50 other ASX-listed companies, was suspended on Monday amid a platform outage. The wholesale distribution and marketing company behind the IGA supermarket chain, was the largest company caught up in the outage. Metcash requested a trading halt after it was unable to release a presentation about its FY26 first half year results while an investor call was underway.

For the six months ended 31 October, Metcash reported a 0.1% increase in group revenue. It also posted a 0.3% increase in profit after tax, and a 2% lift in its EBITDA. This was largely driven by strong growth in its Food pillar.

Following the company’s results, Macquarie analysts wrote a note to investors with their latest outlook on the stock.

Target price lowered for Metcash shares

The broker confirmed its neutral rating on Metcash shares but slashed its target price to just $3.50. This is down from $4.00 previously. At the time of writing that represents a 4.8% upside for investors over the next 12 months.

“EBITDA declines of ~5-9% over medium-term driven by all segments, with the largest decline in Hardware given lower margins,” the broker said.

We cut our TP 12.5% to $3.50, consistent with cashflow changes, partly offset by ~10bps reduction in risk-free rate to 4.2%.

With competitive pressures weighing across business and more subdued outlook for new housing creation, we see risks as evenly balanced at current pricing.

What else did Macquarie have to say?

Metcash’s underlying EBIT for the first half of FY26 was 5% below market expectations and 10% lower than Macquarie estimates. The largest variances were in the company’s Hardware and Liquor segments. 

Looking forward, we remain cautious on the potential for margin recovery with management calling out competition in Food and Hardware, in addition to evidence of heightened competition in Liquor (e.g., COL strategy and EDV response).

“The other key positive was cash conversion, with the 3-year cash realisation ratio at ~106%, well ahead of the 80-90% guidance range. Management expects this to revert to the upper end of the range,” Macquarie said.

The post Macquarie slashes price target on Metcash shares as price plunge continues appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Locksley Resources Ltd (ASX: LKY) is a US-focused critical minerals explorer targeting high grade rare earths and antimony in California.

Aussie investors are excited about this ASX mineral explorer amid growing interest in rare earths due to China’s dominance as a supplier.

Rare earths are used in wind turbines, electric cars, robotics, defence systems, and everyday tech gadgets like smartphones.

China has restricted its exports, which prompted the US to do a $US8.5 billion deal with Australia to secure more supply in October.

Meanwhile, investors are learning much more about antimony, a key input in defence systems, semiconductors, and metal alloys, amid a global defence spending surge and high demand for semiconductors due to expanding investment in artificial intelligence (AI).

Locksley Resources is sitting pretty amid all these developments.

Its flagship project in California’s Mojave Desert sits 1.4km from America’s only actively producing rare earths mine, Mountain Pass.

Mountain Pass is owned by MP Materials Corp, and Aussie mining baroness Gina Rinehart just became its biggest shareholder.

Rhinehart invested more than $200 million in MP Materials last month, giving her a 5.3% stake.

Locksley’s Mojave Project encompasses the El Campo rare earths deposit and the historical Desert Antimony Mine (DAM).

DAM last operated in 1937. Currently, the US has no domestic antimony production and demand for the metal is rising strongly.

Based on surface sample results, Locksley Resources says DAM is “one of the highest-grade known antimony occurrences in the US”.

Locksley sees a bright future ahead, commenting last week:

Locksley’s North American position is further strengthened by rising geopolitical urgency to diversify supply chains away from China, the global leader in both REE & antimony production.

With its maiden drilling program planned, the Mojave Project is uniquely positioned to align with U.S. strategic objectives around critical mineral independence and economic security.

Outlook for Locksley Resources shares

Locksley Resources shares peaked at an all-time high of 69 cents per share on 22 September.

At the time, that represented an astounding 3,959% capital gain for 2025 and a 2,350% uplift over 12 months.

That month, Niv Dagan from Peak Asset Management warned that short-term profit-taking was likely after such incredible gains.

He was right.

Since 22 September, the Locksley Resources share price has more than halved to 31 cents today.

What should investors do now?

Analyst’s view on Locksley Resources shares

Dagan maintains a hold rating on Locksley Resources shares.

On The Bull this week, Dagan commented:

On November 17, the company announced a partnership with Columbia University, which it expects to strengthen its rare earth recovery capability amid expanding the mine-to-market critical minerals platform.

This latest development complements LKY’s existing green DeepSolv antimony processing partnership with Rice University.

LKY’s active engagement comes at a time when the US is expanding critical minerals development.

What’s the latest news from Locksley Resources?

Last week, Locksley Resources announced operational commencement of its maiden five-hole diamond drilling program at El Campo.

It also announced final approval for an expanded drilling program involving up to 16 drill holes at DAM.

Drilling will occur sequentially, with the diamond drill rig commencing at El Campo, then moving to DAM.

Locksley Resources said this would ensure a continuous flow of exploration news and data throughout 1Q and 2Q CY26.

Meanwhile, the company is fast-tracking a mine-to-market strategy for antimony.

In partnership with Rice University in Texas, it’s also developing a faster processing method for antimony called DeepSolv.

Locksley Resources recently announced the casting of the first 100% US-made antimony ingot metal in decades.

Kerrie Matthews, Managing Director and CEO, commented last week:

We are finishing 2025 with strong momentum.

By commencing operations at El Campo and finalising the bond for DAM, we have effectively opened two fronts for exploration.

Locksley Resources reported cash of approximately $7.24 million at the end of the September quarter, with 4.57 quarters of funding left.

The post Down 55% in 10 weeks, is it time to cut and run on Locksley Resources shares? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended MP Materials. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.