• A prolonged drought in southeast Asia contributed to massive fish deaths in southern Vietnam.
• The climate crisis and human development threaten the Mekong Delta, a key global agricultural center.
• Despite infrastructure measures, some farmers are still struggling to access water. 

A weekslong drought across parts of southeast Asia has killed hundreds of thousands of fish in a reservoir in Vietnam and pushed a key metric for coffee prices to record levels — just two indicators of the kind of havoc the climate is wreaking on people and the economy.

In Vietnam, the maze of wetlands that comprise the Mekong Delta is called the country's "rice bowl" because of the vast agriculture it supports. The climate crisis and human development threaten the water the region relies on, especially in El Niño years like this one.

As Vietnam's freshwater levels drop, salt water intrudes, causing massive economic devastation. From 2020 to 2023, the Mekong Delta lost 70 trillion Vietnamese dong, or $2.96 billion, annually because of salt intrusion, the country's Ministry of Natural Resources and the Environment said in mid-March. Those figures are expected to climb in coming years, the ministry said.

While Vietnam is no longer a heavily agricultural economy, the industry still accounted for about 12% of its GDP last year, according to the World Bank.

It's too early to know exactly how this year's drought, exacerbated by El Niño, will affect harvests and exports. But early gauges indicate trouble for at least one key export. Vietnam's coffee association said in late March that exports of robusta coffee — the bean used in espresso and instant coffee — could decline as much as 20% in the 12 months ending in September, compared with the same period last year. Vietnam is the world's largest robusta producer, and futures prices for the bean hit a 16-year high last week.

Meanwhile, in southern Vietnam, hundreds of thousands of fish died in a reservoir last month as temperatures peaked over 100 degrees Fahrenheit and no rain fell for weeks, the AFP reported. Residents blamed the weather and the reservoir's management.

Business Insider could not locate the owner of the reservoir for comment.

Irrigation measures, including those put in after a disastrous 2020 drought, have helped keep much of the Mekong Delta wet despite the widespread dryness, reported the Mekong Dam Monitor last week. The group, run by a US think tank, highlighted that two southern provinces still had "extreme dryness" — and those areas are harvesting crops this month, the group said.

Water levels are below average in 13 of the country's 24 monitoring stations, largely in the far north and far south, according to the intergovernmental agency Mekong River Commission.

While Vietnam has built significant infrastructure to combat increasingly brutal droughts, farmers told local media last month they're still struggling. Some of the reservoirs they need to tap are contaminated with chemicals like alum, while other irrigation options are costly. A farmer in a central province said two acres of his rice burned from the drought.

"Every year we harvest about 18 bags of rice, each bag is 60 kilograms, but this year there is a lack of water, so maybe we'll only get a few bags," Ksor Phung told VnExpress.

At least three provinces declared states of emergency last month, asking for government help to address water shortages and salinity problems.

The drought in Vietnam underscores how the climate crisis is hitting agriculture worldwide. Lower and less predictable crop yields can translate to lower productivity, higher inflation, and worse nutrition, among other issues.

• A Ukrainian counteroffensive against Russia isn't on the cards until 2025, says Jake Sullivan.
• Russia will make advances in the "coming period" even though US aid to Ukraine is coming, he said.
• "You can't instantly flip the switch," Sullivan said.

Ukraine may have gotten their long-awaited US aid last month, but a counteroffensive against Russia won't be on the cards until 2025, says US national security advisor Jake Sullivan.

Sullivan was speaking at The Financial Times Weekend Festival in Washington on Saturday when he offered his assessment of the Ukraine war.

Ukraine, Sullivan said, will still be able to "hold the line" and withstand Russian attacks through 2024 with the aid that's coming from the US. But Sullivan said he still expects "Russian advances in the coming period" as it will take some time for US aid to reach Ukraine.

"You can't instantly flip the switch," Sullivan told festival attendees.

A counteroffensive, where Ukraine can "move forward to recapture the territory that the Russians have taken from them," will only take place in 2025, Sullivan said.

Ukraine's defense ministry didn't immediately respond to a request for comment from BI sent outside regular business hours.

Sullivan's remarks on the war come at a precarious time for Ukraine. Besides dealing with repeated calls from the GOP to halt US aid, the country is also fending off an invigorated Russian army.

"The army is actually now larger — by 15 percent — than it was when it invaded Ukraine," US Army Gen. Christopher Cavoli said in a House Armed Services Committee hearing on April 10.

"The severity of this moment cannot be overstated: If we do not continue to support Ukraine, Ukraine could lose," said Cavoli, who is also NATO's Supreme Allied Commander in Europe.  

Last month, the House of Representatives finally approved more than $60 billion in aid to Ukraine. The bill was delayed for months due to staunch GOP opposition. In fact, when the bill was passed on April 20, 112 Republicans voted against it.

According to the Institute for the Study of War, the incoming aid will provide little immediate relief for the Ukrainians.

This, the ISW said, is because the Russians are still able to "take advantage of the limited window before the arrival of new US aid" to ramp up their attacks.

"The frontline situation will therefore likely continue to deteriorate in that time," the US think tank wrote.

• Tim Cook said iPhone sales grew in China, despite external research showing a decline.
• The discrepancy may be due to different methods of calculating revenue used by Apple and analysts.
• China accounted for 18% of Apple's sales, making it a critical market for the tech giant.

Apple told investors that iPhone sales grew in China on Friday, a surprise to analysts who had dissected industry reports in recent months that appeared to show the opposite.

The difference may stem from how Apple and external analysts calculate revenue.

"We still saw growth on iPhone in some markets, including mainland China," CEO Tim Cook said on Apple's Friday earnings call.

The company's revenue for greater China, which includes Hong Kong and Taiwan, declined 8% in the quarter year-over-year, to $16.4 billion.

Cook, citing data company Kantar, said the two best-selling smartphones in urban China during the quarter were the iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Pro Max.

However, over the last quarter, independent analysts have reported a slump in overall iPhone sales in China. For the quarter that ended on March 31, Counterpoint Research reported a 19% year-on-year decline in iPhone sales in China, and the International Data Corporation found that iPhone shipments fell nearly 10% for the region during the same period.

iPhone sales in China are a closely watched metric because greater China accounted for 18% of Apple's sales across products in the first quarter, according to the earnings results. Across regions, sales of the smartphone made up over half of the tech giant's net sales, dwarfing contributions from the Mac, iPad, and wearables.

Cook's limited remarks on China's iPhone sales raised questions on Friday's call from analysts who compared Apple's data with independent reports.

"The simple question is, when we look at the data points that have been repeatedly reported throughout the course of this quarter, I'm curious, Tim, you know, what are we missing?" asked Wells Fargo analyst Aaron Rakers.

Cook declined to comment on third-party data points on the call.

Analysts at the research firms said the difference comes from how analysts and Apple calculate revenue.

In the first quarter, "we tracked a year-on-year decline in total value generated by iPhones in China," IDC analyst Will Wong told Bloomberg after Apple's results.

The average selling price plays a key role in explaining the difference. IDC counted the prices customers paid, while Apple likely uses another price level, such as factory price, in its financial reporting, Wong said.

The discrepancy may also come from newer and more expensive models making up a bigger portion of purchases, which could drive up revenue, even if total unit sales declined.

Cook, who visited China in March, remained optimistic about the region, a key center for Apple's manufacturing, in addition to its sizable customer base.

"I maintain a great view of China in the long-term. I don't know how each and every quarter goes and each and every week," Cook said on Friday's call. "But over the long haul, I have a very positive viewpoint."

• Joe Biden should've done something about his bite-prone dog, Commander, says Kristi Noem.
• Noem came under fire recently for saying she shot her 14-month-old family dog, Cricket.
• "Commander, say hello to Cricket for me," Noem wrote in her memoir.

Gov. Kristi Noem of South Dakota was hit with a deluge of criticism for saying she shot her family dog.

But the GOP politician said on Sunday that President Joe Biden should take a leaf out of her playbook when it comes to pet care.

"Joe Biden's dog has attacked 24 Secret Service people. So, how many people is enough people to be attacked and dangerously hurt before you make a decision on a dog and what to do with it?" Noem said of Biden's family dog, Commander, in an appearance on CBS's "Face the Nation" on Sunday.

Commander bit US Secret Service agents on at least 24 occasions, CNN reported in February, citing documents it had obtained from the USSS. The German shepherd, a gift from Biden's brother and sister-in-law, was removed from the White House in October.

Noem, however, was evasive when host Margaret Brennan asked if she was suggesting that Commander be shot too.

"That's what the president should be accountable to," Noem told Brennan. "What is the number?"

Representatives for Noem and Biden didn't immediately respond to requests for comment from BI sent outside regular business hours.

Noem was widely criticized after she revealed in her forthcoming memoir, "No Going Back," that she shot and killed her 14-month-old dog, Cricket for being "untrainable" and "dangerous," per an excerpt obtained by The New York Times.

"I hated that dog," Noem wrote in her book, which is set to be published on Tuesday.

In her book, Noem also referenced Commander, and suggested that the Bidens' dog meet the same fate Cricket did. The South Dakota Republican wrote that the first thing she would do if elected president would be to make sure that Commander is "nowhere on the grounds."

"Commander, say hello to Cricket for me," Noem wrote in her memoir, per an excerpt obtained by CNN.

The strange tale of Noem's dead dog comes at a crucial moment for GOP vice-president hopefuls and in the middle of an intense fundraising season. Former President Donald Trump's campaign said it raised more than $76 million in April, Politico reported on Saturday, citing a person familiar with the matter.

And even though Trump is facing multiple lawsuits, several GOP politicians have been eagerly positioning themselves as his potential running mate.

Noem, who was reelected governor in 2022, is one of many contenders on Trump's list, which includes names like Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, and Ohio's Sen. JD Vance.

"I will do everything I can to help him win and save this country," Noem said of Trump when she endorsed him in September.

• China's new teaser for its lunar base appeared to show a NASA Space Shuttle taking off.
• It's a peculiar detail in the clip, because China and the US don't work with each other in space.
• The Space Shuttle was later blurred out in a state media version of the CGI video.

A new concept video showcasing China's planned lunar base appeared to feature a NASA Space Shuttle lifting off from the facility — a detail that was then omitted in a later broadcast of the clip.

Released by the China National Space Administration on April 26, the video contained a CGI rendering of Beijing's vision for its International Lunar Research Station in 2045.

The rendering shows an astronaut waving a Chinese flag over a research campus on the moon, while a spacecraft shaped like a Space Shuttle takes off in the background with a signature orange rocket booster.

American rocket boosters were orange because of a foam used uniquely by NASA to insulate fuel tanks during the Space Shuttle era of 1981 to 2011, during which the administration ran 135 missions.

The apparent Space Shuttle's appearance in China's video is peculiar. The US prohibits NASA from working with China in space, and Beijing has long touted its new space station and ambitions for a lunar base as independent and China-led.

Meanwhile, the US and NASA have been signaling an urgent need to establish their own base on the moon before China, marking a race between both nations to put their astronauts on the lunar surface.

It's unclear if showing a Space Shuttle was intended by China's space administration, but the spacecraft using a Chinese base in 2045 would be nearly impossible.

That's because the Space Shuttle was retired in 2011, with NASA now focusing on its new Orion Spacecraft with a heavy-lift rocket system for its trips to the moon. The administration typically relies on Elon Musk's SpaceX to transport astronauts to the International Space Station.

The apparent video gaffe was noticed on China's side. In the same video posted by state broadcaster CGTN the day after, the Space Shuttle was blurred out — a censorship tool often deployed in China on short deadlines.

China's State Council Information Office did not immediately respond to a request for comment sent by Business Insider.

Beijing says it plans for its international lunar base to be built jointly by other countries as a collaborative effort. In the lead-up to that endeavor, CNSA launched a robotic probe to the moon on Friday in the world's first attempt to retrieve samples from the moon's far side.

However, the US has warned amid tense Sino-American relations that Beijing's track record with controlling resources on Earth means NASA shouldn't allow it to establish a base on the moon first.

NASA's spending on its Artemis project, its effort to put US astronauts on the moon a second time, is expected to reach around $93 billion by 2025.

It's asked the US government for $7.6 billion for the Artemis campaign budget in 2025, or just over a quarter of its total administration budget request of $25.3 billion.

The first Artemis crewed mission is expected to land on the moon in late 2025, though this deadline was originally meant to be November 2024.