After losing ground again yesterday, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) share price is now down almost 14% in the last month. 

CBA shares closed yesterday at $151.64. 

It is now down more than 20% from its 12-month high of more than $191 per share back in June. 

Despite this fall, CBA is the most expensive bank in the world. It still represents almost 10% of the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO). 

Because of its dominant market share, it impacts shareholders who have direct exposure and those who don’t necessarily own individual shares in the bank. 

For example, many ASX ETFs are heavily weighted towards CBA shares. 

Arian Neiron, CEO & Managing Director – Asia Pacific, VanEck, has provided fresh analysis on why this disproportionate impact can negatively impact portfolio performance. 

Why has the CBA share price fallen?

According to the report, there are a few key reasons why Australia’s biggest bank has been heavily sold off in the last month. 

These factors include: 

• Its price-to-earnings (P/E) is too high
• Earnings per share growth is anaemic
• It is only yielding around 2%
• Its margins are under pressure

Neiron said the concentration risk for many Australian equity portfolios has existed for some time. 

This kind of sector bias makes sense if you are bullish on the sector, but given the well-noted pressures on banks remain, with margins under pressure, an economic outlook not conducive to growth and defaults potentially rising given that rates are now not expected to fall again until well into 2026 (if again at all), an approach to Australian equities with less concentration approach to Australian equities may be prudent.

This isn’t just exclusive to CBA shares either. 

According to VanEck, Australian banks are the most expensive globally in the developed world on a 12-month forward price-to-earnings and price-to-book basis. 

Banks make up over 20% of the ASX 200 benchmark index.

If valuations moved to be in line with global valuations, it could disproportionately impact many Australian portfolios. 

The report said it’s not just the sky-high valuations that are causing alarm for analysts.

Another headwind that Australia’s banks must navigate is the economic outlook.

Slowing credit growth, sluggish productivity, and the potential that the next rate move will be higher could increase the potential for arrears, also putting pressure on lenders.

At what point does it become a value?

It’s impossible to predict where CBA shares might bottom out. But many investors will be tempted to buy low (relatively) on Australia’s biggest bank. 

Last month, Macquarie put a price target of $106 on CBA shares, and Morgans has a price target of $96.07. 

From yesterday’s closing price of $151.64, this indicates a further fall of 30% to 36%. 

With further headwinds in sight and a still inflated share price, it seems CBA shares may have further falls ahead. 

The post Why does the CBA share price keep falling? – Expert appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The best time horizon for investing in ASX stocks is the long term, given the power of compounding.

The two investments I’ll tell you about are impressive players at what they do, and their outlook for growth looks promising.

While earnings growth is not certain, I believe the two ASX stocks listed below are likely to experience pleasing progress in the years ahead.

Betashares Global Cybersecurity ETF (ASX: HACK)

One of the most undeniable tailwinds of the world is the increasing digital nature of activities in our lives, whether that’s online banking, e-commerce, communication, working, connecting with government services (including taxation forms), learning, and so on.

All of those activities require a safe internet connection with protection against cybercriminals.

The HACK ETF gives investors the ability to invest in the global cybersecurity sector, with exposure to both global leaders and emerging players.

There are a number of recognisable businesses in the portfolio, including Broadcom, CrowdStrike, Cisco Systems, Infosys, Palo Alto Networks, Leidos, and Fortinet.

I’m expecting the underlying earnings of these businesses to continue rising for the foreseeable future as governments, businesses, and households strive for full protection from cybercriminals.

The more the world is connected to the internet, the more integral the companies in this ASX ETF become.

According to BetaShares, the HACK ETF has returned an average of 18.6% per year since its inception in August 2016. Past performance is not a guarantee of future returns, of course, but I think the future bodes well.

L1 Group Ltd (ASX: L1G)

L1 is a funds management business which recently became noticeably bigger (and a listed ASX stock) after acquiring the fund manager Platinum.

Many of the company’s key investment strategies have performed strongly compared to their benchmarks over the years, which helps drive funds under management (FUM) higher and encourages clients to allocate more FUM to L1.

L1 Capital has delivered average organic FUM growth of 30% per annum, without using its balance sheet. Funds management is a capital-light sector. I’m expecting the company’s FUM to continue rising, though not necessarily at 30% per year. However, it is expanding its distribution into North America, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa regions.

On the cost side of things, the business is looking to deliver cost reductions of between $30 million to $35 million within 18 months of the merger between L1 Group and Platinum. This could help improve the profit margins of the business.

The ASX stock has also highlighted that there are opportunities to put capital into very compelling, value-adding ideas, though it will be “selective in pursuing opportunities”.

At the time of writing, the L1 Group share price is valued at 20.1x FY27’s estimated earnings. While it’s not cheap, I think there is plenty of growth potential ahead.

The post 2 ASX stocks I’m very bullish about for the next decade appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended BetaShares Global Cybersecurity ETF, Cisco Systems, CrowdStrike, and Fortinet. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended Broadcom and Palo Alto Networks. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CrowdStrike. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) slipped 3% in November, with these four ASX 200 shares all suffering much steeper falls.

So, which four companies were the worst ones to buy on 31 October and hold through to market close on 28 November?

Read on!

Three ASX companies in sharp reverse last month

The first ASX 200 stock investors would have done well to avoid in November is Iperionx Ltd (ASX: IPX).

Shares in the titanium products producer closed out October trading for $6.80 and ended November changing hands for $5.11 apiece. That saw the Iperionx share price down 24.9% over the month just past.

Longer term, shares remain up 13% over 12 months.

Iperionx shares came under pressure in November amid a short seller report released by Spruce Point Management.

“Based on our analysis, we believe investors should exercise caution because the shares may be significantly overvalued,” the short seller noted.

Moving on to the second ASX 200 stock taking a sharp fall in November, we have TPG Telecom Ltd (ASX: TPG).

Shares in Australia’s third-largest telecommunications company ended October trading for $5.53 and ended November at $3.75. This put the TPG Telecom share price down 32.2% over the month, and it sees shares down 17% in a year.

Some of that selling pressure came after the company raised $300 million through an Institutional Reinvestment Plan, issuing new shares at a 5% discount to the previous trading day’s closing price.

But the biggest loss came on 14 November, when TPG Telecom shares closed down 31.1%.

However, those losses weren’t as harsh as they might seem. That’s because the company had just traded ex-dividend (including an outsized shareholder capital return), which saw stockholders achieving a 28.8% yield relative to the previous trading day’s closing price.

Which brings us to the third fast-falling ASX 200 stock in November, Temple & Webster Group Ltd (ASX: TPW).

Shares in the online furniture and homewares retailer closed on 31 October trading for $23.81. At the end of trade on 28 November, shares were changing hands for $15.52 apiece, down 34.8% for the month.

Temple & Webster shares remain up 24% over 12 months.

Almost all of November’s losses can be pinned to 26 November, when shares closed the day down a precipitous 32.3%. This followed on a trading update in which the company reported that revenue from 1 July to 20 November was up 18% year on year. But that growth fell short of market expectations, and investors were quick to hit their sell buttons.

The worst-performing ASX 200 stock to hold in November

And the ignominious title of worst performing ASX 200 stock to hold in November goes to DroneShield Ltd (ASX: DRO).

Shares in the drone defence company closed on 31 October trading for $3.83 and ended November at $1.98 apiece.

This saw the DroneShield share price down a steep 48.3% over the month. Though shares remain up 163% over 12 months.

DroneShield shares faced a series of headwinds in November after notching new record highs in October.

The biggest single-day sell-off came on 13 November.

Investors sent the DroneShield share price tumbling 31.4% on the day after learning that CEO Oleg Vornik had sold $49.47 million worth of the company’s shares the prior week.

The post The 4 worst performing ASX 200 stocks to hold in November unmasked appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended DroneShield and Temple & Webster Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Temple & Webster Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

If you are wanting to gain exposure to the rare earths industry, then the ASX stock in this article could be worth considering.

That’s according to analysts at Bell Potter, which see potential for major upside for investors over the next 12 months.

Which ASX rare earths stock?

The stock that Bell Potter is bullish on is Meteoric Resources NL (ASX: MEI). It owns the Caldeira ionic clay rare earth project in Brazil, as well as two non-core gold projects in Brazil and Western Australia.

Bell Potter notes that the company’s license hearing has been postponed. While this is disappointing and has led to a significant share price decline, the broker was pleased with management’s comments. It said:

Both VMM and MEI had their license hearing (scheduled for the 28th of Nov) postponed allowing for the State Foundation for Environment (FEAM) to respond to the questions brought forward by the Federal Public Prosecutors Office (MPF). For MEI, the questions focus on 1) proximity to the Caldas Decommissioning Unit nuclear facility, 2) engagement with local stakeholders and indigenous groups, and 3) operations within the Pedra Branca Buffer Zone.

The suspension in trading was lifted during today’s session, and whilst the decline reached -27% intra-day, the stock ended only -11% down following the investor call. Management’s response to questioning stressed the fact that this is a procedural process, which helped calm investors.

Not insurmountable

Bell Potter also highlights that it believes this is a procedural process and could just delay project progression rather than end it. The broker adds:

MEI anticipates inclusion in the Dec-19 council hearing, subject to the MPF responses being addressed. At this stage we don’t necessarily see this as an insurmountable risk, rather a procedural process which may take longer than initially anticipated. If the COPAM request additional environmental baseline monitoring, this may further delay progression of the project until those timelines are satisfied. Separately, the commissioning of the processing plant is underway, with MREC production anticipated in early December.

Speculative buy

According to the note, the broker has retained its speculative buy rating and 25 cents price target on the ASX rare earths stock.

Based on its current share price of 14 cents, this implies potential upside of almost 80% for investors over the next 12 months.

Commenting on its speculative buy recommendation, the broker said:

Our valuation is unchanged at $0.25/sh, and we maintain our Buy (spec) recommendation. Given MEI’s advanced project stage, and the current demand for heavy rare earths, we believe the project and company may garner some attention from Western nations seeking to diversify the China dominant rare earth magnet supply chain.

The post Meet the ASX rare earths stock that could rocket 80% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The ASX has many income-paying shares that could be described as ‘safe’ dividend stocks. No stock offers a completely safe stream of income that can compare to a term deposit or a government bond, for example. But there are still many stocks on the ASX that most people would feel reasonably confident will continue to pay out consistent dividends.

However, there is another place to find dividend stocks that makes the ASX’s most consistent payers look like amateurs. The US markets are home to most of the world’s best businesses. And that means the world’s best dividend stocks.

Here are two of those stocks, and why I think they just might be a pair of the safest dividend investments in the world. As much as any share can be, anyway.

Two dividend stocks with ultra-reliable payouts

Procter & Gamble Inc (NYSE: PG)

Procter & Gamble isn’t exactly a household name, in Australia or the US. But many of its dozens of household brands are. They range from Oral-B toothpaste and Old Spice deodorant to Fairy dishwashing and Gillette razors.

These products can be found right around the world. They are trusted brands that consumers don’t think twice about buying over and over again. Thanks to the essential nature of this valuable brand portfolio, Procter & Gamble is a great example of a quality, all-weather stock with an incredibly reliable earnings base from which it can pay shareholders dividends. And that makes Procter & Gamble a stellar dividend stock.

To prove this durability, this company has one of the longest streaks of annual dividend increases around, with shareholders getting a pay rise for 69 years in a row (including in 2025).

Procter & Gamble stock last traded on a dividend yield of 2.85%.

Coca-Cola Co (NYSE: KO)

Our next stock is about as ‘household name’ as it comes. Coca-Cola needs little introduction as the largest beverage company in the world. Its namesake product is simply as iconic as iconic gets, and one of the most universally recognised products on the planet. But not Coca-Cola Co’s only money spinner. Its stable of products ranges from Sprite and Fanta to coffee and energy drinks. This company has been batting away competition and perfecting its advertising for generations.

Again, these products have been around a very long time and are trusted by consumers. They are also incredibly inflation– and recession-resistant. Once more, we can look to Coca-Cola’s dividend record for proof of that. This company has one of the longest streaks of annual dividend increases around, with shareholders getting a pay rise for 69 years and counting.

I think it’s fair to say that this dividend streak will continue for many decades to come. Coca-Cola stock was recently trading with a yield of 2.79%.

The post These 2 dividend stocks might be the safest income payers in the world appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has positions in Coca-Cola and Procter & Gamble. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

When it comes to retirement savings, reliability matters more than excitement.

You want businesses with defensive earnings, strong balance sheets, steady dividends, and the ability to keep paying those dividends through good times and bad.

If I were building a long-term, income-focused portfolio designed to preserve and grow retirement capital, the three ASX dividend stocks below would be near the top of my list.

APA Group (ASX: APA)

Few stocks on the ASX offer the stability and predictability of APA. It is one of Australia’s largest energy infrastructure providers, owning and operating over 15,000 kilometres of gas pipelines, along with a range of electricity transmission, solar, and wind assets.

This is essential infrastructure with long-term, regulated or contracted earnings. The company’s reliable and steadily growing cash flows provide a solid foundation for dependable dividends. In fact, APA has increased its distribution for more than a decade in a row, which is a rare achievement on the Australian market.

Looking ahead, APA’s expanding asset base and continued investment in energy transmission, storage, and remote power generation should support steady dividend growth. And with a dividend yield comfortably above 6%, it offers the kind of income resilience retirees value most.

Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG)

Macquarie has quietly built a reputation as one of the most consistent dividend payers on the ASX. Its diversified business model, spanning banking, asset management, commodities, and global infrastructure, gives it multiple earnings engines that fire at different points of the cycle.

That diversity is exactly why this ASX dividend stock has weathered market downturns and rate shocks better than many financial peers. When one division is soft, another typically picks up the slack. The company also has a long track record of compounding earnings and deploying capital into high-return opportunities.

For retirement investors, Macquarie provides partially franked dividends, steady long-term growth, and exposure to global infrastructure and energy transition themes. It is the type of blue chip that rewards patience year after year.

Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW)

Woolworths is the definition of a defensive business. Regardless of economic conditions, Australians still need groceries, household staples, and essential goods. That stability translates directly into reliable earnings and consistent dividends.

Woolworths has generations of experience in delivering shareholder returns, underpinned by strong cash flow, scale advantages, and one of the most trusted brands in the country. While its growth is steady rather than spectacular, that is exactly what makes it a dependable ASX dividend stock for retirement portfolios.

With recurring earnings and clear pricing power, Woolworths is well positioned to keep delivering sustainable dividends for decades to come.

The post 3 ASX dividend stocks I’d trust with my retirement savings appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Woolworths Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Apa Group, Macquarie Group, and Woolworths Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Owners of BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares will want to know what’s expected of the ASX mining share in terms of profitability. That’s because the profit generation could have a significant influence on both the future dividend payments and the BHP share price.

As one of the world’s biggest miners, there are usually three key factors for the company’s earnings success. There’s how much of its commodities it produces, how much it costs to deliver that production, and how much it’s able to sell its production for.

BHP’s current production is focused on three key commodities: iron ore, copper, and coal. It’s also working on a potash project in Canada.

Investors recently saw an update about the miner’s FY26 first-quarter production, so let’s see how that could play out for profit in the 2026 financial year and beyond.

FY26

The broker UBS noted that the first quarter to September 2025 was a “solid start” to FY26, with the Escondida (copper) and BMA (coal) projects stronger than expected. Escondida benefited from record concentrator throughput and recoveries.

The Western Australian Iron Ore (WAIO) business saw that the car dumper maintenance was completed faster than planned. Excluding maintenance, production annualised at around 300mt per annum, which signals growing supply chain resilience.

However, WAIO shipments at 70mt were down 2% year over year because of significant planned maintenance. The major rebuild of car dumper 3 at Port Hedland had a 4.3mt volume impact, but will position WAIO for strong operational performance over the rest of FY26.

UBS highlighted that BHP does “sell and ship iron ore products via different commercial distribution channels” which goes some way to address market concerns regarding potential disruptions to iron ore shipments to China.

The realised iron ore price of US$84 per wet metric tonne (wmt) was stronger than expected. This is a key driver of profit and the BHP share price.

UBS said it recently increased its price forecasts for BHP’s key commodities, reflecting “a) tighter copper supply, b) copper to aluminium substitution, c) resilient iron ore fundamentals, d) ongoing momentum in gold prices.”

The broker believes that resilient resource prices should “support returns” from BHP.

UBS thinks BHP will maintain a dividend payout ratio of 50% of net profit in the first half of FY26, though a higher payout is possible if resource prices remain favourable.

In the 2026 financial year, UBS’ net profit is predicted to grow to US$11.45 billion.

FY27

The big mining giant is expected by UBS to deliver a relatively flat profit for owners of BHP shares.

The broker suggests that BHP could generate a net profit of US$11.38 billion in the 2027 financial year.

FY28

In the 2028 financial year, BHP’s net profit could then see another very similar result.

Analysts at UBS suggest the business could see its net profit decline slightly to US$11.32 billion.

FY29

The 2029 financial year could see the business deliver yet another year of flat profit generation.

BHP is projected to slightly increase its net profit to US$13.33 billion, according to UBS.

FY30

The last year of this series of projections could be the best of all for owners of BHP shares.

According to the projection from UBS, the company could generate a net profit of US$14.25 billion.

Is the business a buy? Currently, UBS has a neutral rating on the miner, with a price target of $45.

The post Here’s the earnings forecast out to 2030 for BHP shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) share Reece Ltd (ASX: REH) has been one of the hardest-hit in the index over the last few years. As the chart below shows, the company is down by 57% since September 2024.

The bathroom, HVAC, plumbing and waterworks business has a significant presence across Australia, New Zealand and the US. However, this diversification hasn’t helped the business avoid a significant decline.

Reece’s FY25 result did not inspire, with revenue declining 1%, operating profit (EBITDA) dropping 11% to $901 million, and earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) sinking 20% to $548 million. ANZ revenue rose 1% but US revenue declined 5% in US dollar terms.

Profit isn’t going in the right direction, but there are a number of signs that this could be the right time to invest for brave investors.

Compelling reasons to like the ASX 200 share

Firstly, revenue momentum seems to have improved from FY25. In the first quarter of FY26, the company reported that group sales were up 8% year-over-year, or 6% on a constant currency basis.

While EBITDA was down 8% and EBIT down 18% in the first quarter, the company said that a significant portion of that was due to network growth, ongoing investment in core capabilities and elevated depreciation and amortisation because of ongoing investment in the business.

We’d like to see profit rise year after year, but I think it’s a good idea for Reece to invest for the long term because it should lead to stronger results for the business.

The company’s investments in its network can help unlock revenue growth and should help Reece’s economies of scale as it becomes larger.

In the first three months of FY26, Reece added another 15 branches across its two regions, with five new locations in Australia and New Zealand, as well as 10 new locations in the US.

The business is continuing to expect a period of “soft activity in both regions” – that’s why the Reece share price has fallen so much over the past year, it’s seeing weak conditions with no clear end in sight. But, I think this is the right time to invest when conditions are weak. Shares don’t fall heavily for no reason.

Management see this as a good time to buy Reece shares, which is why the ASX 200 share recently announced another share buyback, this time for $35 million.

While earnings are projected to decline in FY26, earnings per share (EPS) is forecast to rise 14% in FY27, according to the forecast on CMC Markets. This could be the start of a longer-term recovery for the business, in my view. Rising profit could make a big difference to market confidence.

Based on that projection, the Reece share price is valued at 25x FY27’s estimated earnings, which is a lot cheaper than it used to be.

The post This ASX 200 share is down 57% from its peak. I think it’s a turnaround buy! appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.