When a director of an ASX 200 share buys up stock in their own company, investors usually sit up and take notice. After all, it’s rarely a bad sign to see the managers of a company put their money where their mouth is and put extra skin in the game.

Directors are usually paid handsomely to look after a company’s fortunes. So when said directors buy up additional shares in said company, it aligns their financial fortunes more closely to those of other investors. Which said other investors usually, and understandably, appreciate. 

That’s exactly what seems to be going on with one ASX 200 share this week: Seven Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: SVW).

Seven Group is the company headed by the famous Stokes family. Not to be mistaken with the media company Seven West Media Ltd (ASX: SWM), Seven Group is a diversified ASX 200 investment company. It has interests ranging from oil and gas, equipment hire and media through its stake in Seven West.

Last week, we briefly covered Seven Group’s latest earnings report. This covered the first half of FY2023. Investors seemed very impressed with Seven’s 16% jump in revenues that were reported. Not to mention the 17% increase in net profits and an 18% jump in earnings per share (EPS). Since this report became public, Seven Group shares have risen by a healthy 3.3% or so.

But today, the Seven Group share price has had a red day. The shares have slid by 1.4% down to $24.05 a share.

But this is despite news of some insider buying going on.

ASX 200 director loads the boat on Seven shares

Last Thursday, Seven Group put out an ASX notice that confirmed a large, post-earnings director transaction.

The director in question is Rachel Argaman OAM. The ASX notice reveals that Argaman more than doubled her stake in Seven Group last Thursday, picking up 6,500 shares in an on-market trade. These shares were acquired for an average price of $24.15 each. That’s slightly below what the company is trading for today.

This indicates the transaction set Argaman back around $157,000. Until Thursday, Argaman owned 6,000 Seven shares. So she has now more than doubled her stake to 12,500 shares. The shares are held indirectly, in a family trust.

So the fact that these shares were picked up after Seven had reported its earnings and its share price had risen is arguably a strong vote of confidence in Seven Group and its future from Argaman. No doubt investors will be stoked with this news.

The Seven Group share price has had a remarkably strong start to 2023. It has recorded a year-to-date gain of 14.3% at today’s pricing. The company is also up by around 7.5% over the past 12 months, and up almost 30% over the past five years:

At the current Seven Group share price, this ASX 200 share has a market capitalisation of $8.74 billion, with a dividend yield of 1.91%.

The post Guess which ASX 200 director has been buying up shares since their company reported appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• 3 ASX 200 stocks moving higher on strong results announcements
• 4 ASX 200 stocks smashing new 52-week highs on Wednesday
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today

Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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The ASX share market regularly goes through volatility. Share prices moving up and down isn’t surprising – trades are being made by different buyers and sellers every day. But a stock market crash opens up a lot of opportunities.

When I’m about to make an investment, I want to buy shares as cheaply as possible.

People don’t just decide to sell their shares for 30% or 50% less in normal conditions. It takes something significantly worrisome to cause a share price to drop. A global financial crisis (GFC), a global pandemic, and rapidly rising interest rates have triggered share market sell-offs over the last two decades.

Investment advice about being greedy and burgers

I think that Warren Buffett is one of the best investors of all time. While the investment returns he has generated have been incredible, it’s the extremely wise pieces of advice that he has shared with the public over the decades that, to me, make him one of the most revered figures in the investing world.

The first piece of investment advice I’m going to share is one that most readers have probably already heard. It’s easy to get caught up with the booms and busts of the market cycle. But, try to keep this in mind:

Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.

In other words, be careful with your money when valuations are high and frothy, and get busy buying when the share market goes through a hefty decline.

Warren Buffett also said this in 2001:

To refer to a personal taste of mine, I’m going to buy hamburgers the rest of my life. When hamburgers go down in price, we sing the ‘Hallelujah Chorus’ in the Buffett household. When hamburgers go up in price, we weep. For most people, it’s the same with everything in life they will be buying — except stocks. When stocks go down and you can get more for your money, people don’t like them anymore.

ASX share opportunities galore?

During early 2020 and through 2022, we could buy most ASX shares for much cheaper prices.

I accelerated my wealth-building significantly during 2020 and 2022 by picking my favourites at beaten-down prices.

I’ll give a couple of examples of how this can turbocharge wealth.

First, imagine company A has a share price of $100 before a market crash. It then falls 50% to $50. If I buy it at $50 and then it recovers to $75 in six months, I’ve made a 50% return even though it’s still down 25% from the starting price. But, I’d only choose a business I think has a good long-term future with growth.

I think the Adairs Ltd (ASX: ADH) share price is a great example of this in action.

Between the February 2020 peak and the March 2020 bottom, it dropped more than 70%. By July 2020, it was up 250% from that low. By April 2021, it had risen more than 600%.

Between 31 December 2021 to 17 June 2022, the Adairs share price fell around 60%. Between the June 2022 low and today, it has risen close to 40%.

While we’re not currently seeing 52-week lows for many names, I think there will be more volatility ahead, enabling us to buy at better prices.

If/when there is another major decline in the stock market later this year, I’ll be eager to snap up my favourite ASX shares at cheaper prices.

The post How a stock market crash could turbocharge my ASX share portfolio appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Adairs share price falls amid strong first half growth but guidance downgrade
• Why term deposits can’t compete with these 5 ASX dividend machines
• 11% dividend yield! Is this the greatest ASX 300 bargain?
• 2 ASX dividend shares that could generate $1,000 annual income with just $10,000
• This ASX 300 dividend share is projected to pay a 14% yield by 2025

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Adairs. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Adairs. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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The lithium industry is a sea of red on Monday.

A large number of ASX lithium shares are under pressure and have sink deep into the red today.

What’s going on with ASX lithium shares?

Investors have been selling down ASX lithium shares on Monday in response to heavy declines from their Wall Street-listed peers on Friday.

Lithium giants Albemarle, Livent, and SQM all fell 10% amid concerns over lithium prices.

This was driven by reports that the world’s largest battery maker, CATL, is offering discounts to some of the Chinese automakers it supplies batteries.

According to Reuters, these discounts are being offer in response to a downturn in the price of lithium and a bid to win more orders. CATL has also reportedly been negotiating with its lithium suppliers to bring prices down.

This appears to indicate that CATL, which has a 37% global share of the EV batteries market, is confident that lithium prices have peaked and are now on the way back down again.

The state of play

Most ASX lithium shares are trading sharply lower today. Among the biggest moves are the shares listed below:

• The Allkem Ltd (ASX: AKE) share price is down 5% to $11.30.
• The Core Lithium Ltd (ASX: CXO) share price is down 4% to 92 cents.
• The Lake Resources N.L. (ASX: LKE) share price is down 5% to 60.5 cents.
• The Liontown Resources Ltd (ASX: LTR) share price is down 4% to $1.29.
• The Piedmont Lithium Inc (ASX: PLL) share price is down 13% to 93.5 cents.
• The Pilbara Minerals Ltd (ASX: PLS) is down 7% to $4.10.

Time will tell what happens with prices, but it seems that many investors are not sitting around to find out. Particularly given how spot prices have now fallen 30% since their November peak.

The post Why are ASX lithium shares being hammered on Monday? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• Why is the Pilbara Minerals share price crashing 7% today?
• Down 22% in a month, is it time to dive in and buy Lake Resources shares?
• Two ASX shares with bucketloads of growth potential: experts
• Why Baby Bunting, Integral Diagnostics, Pilbara Minerals, and Zip shares are falling
• Why A2 Milk, Piedmont Lithium, QBE, and Super Retail shares are racing higher

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Allkem. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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The Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Ltd (ASX: BEN) share price has dipped into the red.

Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) bank share closed on Friday trading for $9.61. Shares are currently changing hands for $9.56 apiece, down 0.5% after posting gains of more than 3% in early trade.

This comes following the release of the company’s half-year results for the six months ending 31 December (1H FY23).

Read on for the highlights.

Bendigo Bank share price volatile as profits rocket

• Statutory net profit of $249 million, up 49.3% from 1H FY22
• Cash earnings after tax of $295 million, up 22.9%
• Net interest margin (NIM) of 1.88%, up 0.19%
• Fully franked interim dividend of 29 cents per share, up 9.4% from the 26.5 cents per share paid in 1H FY22

What else happened during the half year?

Atop higher profits and dividends, the Bendigo Bank share price should be receiving some tailwinds from the company’s progress towards significant reductions in its cost-to-income ratio. That’s fallen from 59.3% in 1H FY22 to 54.6% in the half year just past.

Bendigo’s Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio increased by 0.45% year on year to 10.13%.

While the bank saw total lending decline 1.1% to $77.0 billion, total deposits increased 2.5% to $76.5 billion.

Total funding also increased to $88.9 billion up 1.5% from 1H FY22, with Bendigo reporting customer deposits represented 73.9% of its total funding during the six-month period.

For interested investors, management has announced a dividend reinvestment plan (DRP). The board noted that with APRA’s approval, it intends to “neutralise the impact of the DRP by arranging for a third party to purchase the shares on market rather than issue additional shares”.

What did management say?

Commenting on the results that look to be sending the Bendigo Bank share price on a bit of a wild ride this morning, CEO Marnie Baker said:

Bendigo and Adelaide Bank has delivered on all key metrics with cash earnings, return on equity and capital ratios all improving over the half…

Our digital bank Up has continued to drive growth with 613,000 customers and over $1.3 billion in deposits at the end of the half. Its flagship lending product Up Home was soft launched and settled $38 million in home loans.

Our digital home loan product BEN Express reached $100 million in lending during the half with continued strong levels of enquiry expected. Pleasingly, more than 80% of Up Home and BEN Express customers are new to bank.

What’s next?

Looking ahead at what could impact the Bendigo Bank share price down the road, Baker said, “Our business is well positioned to perform in this environment and we are targeting growth at or better than system whilst generating appropriate returns on equity.”

However, Baker noted that while the bank expects interest rates to peak in 2023, housing prices are likely to continue to moderate, leading to lower system credit growth.

“We are seeing a continued contest for market share play out primarily amongst the big four banks, using incentives in the form of cash back offers for housing loans,” Baker added.

Bendigo Bank share price snapshot

As you can see in the chart below, the Bendigo Bank share price is down 5% over the past 12 months. As for 2023, shares are right about where they started the year.

The post Bendigo Bank share price volatile amid 50% profit boost appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday
• Yields of up to 8%! Should I buy these ASX 200 dividend stocks in February?
• Should I buy Bank of Queensland shares today for the prospect of a Bendigo Bank merger?
• Bought $1,000 of Bendigo Bank shares in 2013? Here’s how much passive income you’ve received
• Is Bank of Queensland gearing up for the next big ASX 200 bank merger?

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Bendigo And Adelaide Bank. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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It’s going to be a busy day for earnings as a significant number of ASX shares are expected to release their financial results today.

This is a crucial time for investors to stay informed on how their companies are navigating the current environment. Reporting season gives the average shareholder a greater look into what management is doing, how the business is creating value, and where the company could be heading in the future.

To help you stay up-to-date, here’s a summary of the companies that are set to reveal their earnings today.

Get ready to absorb the latest financial updates!

ASX shares dishing out results today

Ranked in order of market capitalisation (largest to smallest)

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST), $13.1 billion

BlueScope Steel Limited (ASX: BSL), $9.2 billion

Ampol Ltd (ASX: ALD), $7.6 billion

Charter Hall Group (ASX: CHC), $6.9 billion

Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Ltd (ASX: BEN), $5.5 billion

A2 Milk Company Ltd (ASX: A2M), $5.2 billion

Viva Energy Group Ltd (ASX: VEA), $4.7 billion

Nib Holdings Limited (ASX: NHF), $3.8 billion

Reliance Worldwide Corporation Ltd (ASX: RWC), $2.8 billion

HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (ASX: HDN), $2.7 billion

EVT Ltd (ASX: EVT), $2.3 billion

Adairs Ltd (ASX: ADH), $408.0 million

Nuix Ltd (ASX: NXL), $338.0 million

McGrath Ltd (ASX: MEA), $60.9 million

What can we expect to see?

Off the back of a record result in FY22, BlueScope will be under review by its shareholders today.

The company had expected parts of its steelmaking business to slow from the cyclical high coming into the first half. For instance, the North Star segment was anticipated to post an earnings figure that is roughly a third of the previous half.

Heading into today, Bloomberg estimates for BlueScope’s net profit after tax (NPAT) sat at $536 million.

Turning the page to a more growth-orientated ASX share. Investigative analytics software provider Nuix will also be under scrutiny amid the release of its half-year results.

Shares in the company have figuratively scaled mountains over the past six months. During this time, the Nuix share price climbed 53% as its legal predicaments passed. Though, attention will now turn toward the fundamentals.

A return to net profitability would be a major boost to shareholder confidence. In FY22, the company reported a net loss of $22.8 million.

Don’t forget to check back for our results coverage of these ASX shares and more.

The post Earnings preview: Here are the ASX shares reporting on Monday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Dash for trash fades as earnings cliff looms for ASX shares, with the market shooting first and asking questions later
• Why Appen, Lendlease, Nuix, and Star shares are sinking today
• Why did the Nuix share price just crash 27%?
• These 3 ASX 300 shares are ‘significantly undervalued’: fund manager
• Why De Grey, Elders, Maas, and Nuix shares are charging higher today

Motley Fool contributor Mitchell Lawler has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Adairs and Reliance Worldwide. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Adairs and Bendigo And Adelaide Bank. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended A2 Milk, NIB Holdings, and Reliance Worldwide. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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The Qantas Airways Limited (ASX: QAN) share price has soared around 40% in the last six months. Could the ASX airline share be the best place to put our money before the company reports this week?

Qantas shares have significantly outperformed the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) in the last half-year — it’s only up by 3% in that time.

The travel business has seen a strong post-pandemic rebound in demand and profitability.

Before considering whether it’s a buy, I think it’s worthwhile thinking about what the business is actually expecting to report.

Latest from the airline

In November 2022, the airline said that in the first half of FY23, it was expecting underlying net profit after tax (NPAT) to come in between $1.35 billion to $1.45 billion.

At the time, Qantas explained that continued strength in travel demand resulted in Qantas upgrading its profit expectations. The range I mentioned above was a $150 million increase compared to the profit range given in early October 2022.

Qantas noted that consumers were continuing to put a “high priority on travel ahead of other spending categories”.

I think it’s important to recognise the market is now expecting a strong result from Qantas. If it reports an underlying profit before tax of $1.35 billion – the bottom of the range – I don’t think investors will love that.

However, fund manager Chris Stott once pointed out that businesses that upgrade their profit guidance can often upgrade a second or third time.

Remember, the Qantas share price, or any share price, is what the market currently thinks the business is worth based on the current guidance/outlook. If it turns out the ASX share is making more profit than expected, then investors will quickly re-evaluate how much the business is worth today.

Is the Qantas share price a buy?

I think Qantas will achieve the high end of its guidance, or perhaps even more.

The airline is rapidly improving its financial position after the terribly difficult COVID-19 period.

Its balance sheet is now looking much stronger. Qantas noted that its net debt is expected to fall to an estimate of between $2.3 billion to $2.5 billion by 31 December 2022. This was around $900 million better than expected in the update before that one.

Excitingly, Qantas noted that the “low levels of net debt put the board in a position to consider future shareholder returns in February 2023”. Further capital put into a share buyback should also be helpful for the Qantas share price.

With the oil price drifting lower over 2022, and international travel returning, I think the outlook in FY24 and beyond looks promising for the Qantas share price.

In my opinion, I think that the Qantas share price is a buy on a three-year view. The Qantas loyalty division continues to grow and generate earnings, while capacity is returning.

The post Are Qantas shares a buy ahead of this week’s ASX results announcement? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• 4 ASX 200 shares rerated by brokers following earnings results
• Passive income watch: 3 ASX 200 shares that announced boosted dividends this week
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Why did the ASX 200 leap higher on rising unemployment data?

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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The National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) share price has dropped 7% since 8 February. The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has only dropped by 1.6% over that time, so NAB has seriously underperformed.

Last week, the ASX bank share announced its quarterly update for the three months to 31 December 2022.

Earnings recap

I thought that NAB revealed an impressive set of numbers in its quarterly result.

It said that it generated $2.15 billion of cash earnings, which was 18.7% higher than the first quarter of FY22. Cash earnings before tax and credit impairment charges increased 27%.

NAB revealed that its net interest margin (NIM) improved by 12 basis points (0.12%) to 1.79%. Excluding ‘markets & treasury’ and the impact of liquids, the NIM rose 15 basis points (0.15%) to 1.82%. Certainly, NAB benefited from rising interest rates, partly offset by home lending competition.

Revenue rose by 15%, reflecting higher margins, stronger markets & treasury income, and volume growth. Expenses only rose by 4%, with higher staff-related costs partly offset by productivity and lower remediation charges.

The NAB CEO Ross McEwan said that “continued strong employment conditions and healthy savings buffers mean most customers look well placed to manage through this period”.

McEwan also said that NAB is in “good shape for this environment” and that “capital and provisioning remain strong”.

Is the NAB share price great value now?

I think it was a strong result for NAB that it was able to grow cash earnings by almost 20%.

Ultimately, ASX share investors should want to see long-term growth from businesses. NAB is achieving growth under the stewardship of Ross McEwan.

The bank’s profits are riding the wave of higher interest rates – being able to pass on higher rates to borrowers more strongly than savers is boosting NAB’s profitability.

Of course, there’s a major concern that these much-higher interest rates could also mean households run into trouble if they’re not able to absorb the higher interest rate costs.

While NAB included a credit impairment charge of $158 million in this quarter to reflect the impact of lower house prices and business lending volume growth, specific charges remain at low levels. We can see why with the ratio of loans that are 90+ days past due. NAB’s ratio was 0.62% in the FY23 first quarter (this reported quarter), compared to 0.66% for the FY22 fourth quarter and 0.81% for the FY22 first quarter.

The key question is: what level of bad debts will NAB see over the next year or two? With NAB having a group common equity tier 1 (CET1) ratio of 11.3%, I think its balance sheet is well-positioned with good capital levels to weather whatever happens next.

According to Commsec, it’s currently valued at just 12 times FY23’s estimated earnings.

For me, at the current NAB share price, it’s the pick of the domestic banking sector. I’d be happy to own it in a blue-chip-focused portfolio. I think its loan book could perform relatively well in the coming months and years.

The post The NAB share price is sinking this month. Time to pounce? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• Should I buy NAB shares after the ASX 200 bank’s latest update?
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday
• NAB share price higher on stronger than expected Q1 update
• NAB share price in focus following Q1 $2.15b cash profit
• Earnings preview: Here are the ASX shares reporting on Thursday

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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The A2 Milk Company Ltd (ASX: A2M) share price will be on watch on Monday.

This follows the release of the infant formula company’s first half results this morning.

A2 Milk share price on watch amid double-digit growth

• Revenue up 18.6% to NZ$783.3 million
• EBITDA up 10.5% to NZ$107.8 million
• Net profit after tax up 22.1% to NZ$68.5 million
• Cash balance of NZ$707.2 million
• Outlook: Low double-digit revenue growth and steady margins

What happened during the half?

For the six months ended 31 December, A2 Milk reported an 18.6% increase in revenue to NZ$783.3 million. This was driven by a 54% increase in China and Other Asia sales and a 61.8% jump in US sales, which offset a 24.6% decline in ANZ sales.

Infant formula sales were up 18%, with China label sales up 43.5% and English label sales up a modest 1%. Whereas Liquid milk sales were up 5.6% in the ANZ market and 62% in the USA.

A2 Milk’s EBITDA came in 10.5% higher year over year at NZ$107.8 million, which equates to an EBITDA margin of 13.8%.

This reflects a 46% increase in marketing investment and a 15.8% increase in administrative and other expenses due to continued capability build, further investment in innovation and research projects, timing of long-term incentives, plus higher insurance and travel costs.

On the bottom line, the company’s net profit after tax rose 22.1% to NZ$68.5 million, which was ahead of the consensus estimate of NZ$60.6 million, which could bode well for the A2 Milk share price today.

And thanks to its NZ$150 million share buyback, which is 60.1% complete, A2 Milk’s earnings per share rose at a slightly quicker rate of 24.1% to 10 cents per share.

Management commentary

A2 Milk Company’s Managing Director and CEO, David Bortolussi, was pleased with the half and the early success of its new growth strategy. He said:

We are pleased with progress in implementing our refreshed growth strategy focused on the China market and improving our execution in the face of significant market headwinds and COVID-19 related challenges.

Our performance in the China IMF category has been a significant highlight – growing sales 18.0% while the market was down 12.5% driven by strong growth in our China label MBS and DOL channels. As the China market continues to evolve, we are focused on refining our English label distribution model which resulted in a modest increase in sales with market share increases in the CBEC and Daigou channels.

Outlook

Bortolussi appears cautiously optimistic on the company’s outlook. He added:

We are in good shape heading into an increasingly challenging period with the rolling impact of the decline in the birth rate and a market wide transition of China label product to the new GB standard. We have made solid progress towards achieving our sustainability goals, including breaking ground on our 100% renewable energy electrified boiler project at MVM which is the first of its kind in New Zealand.

Management revealed that it is expecting low double digit revenue growth in FY 2023, supported by growth in China label infant formula, ANZ liquid milk, and USA liquid milk sales. English label infant formula revenue is expected to be broadly in line with FY 2022 and any USA infant formula sales in FY 2023 are expected to be immaterial.

Finally, EBITDA growth is expected for the full year, with an EBITDA margin similar to FY 2022 levels (13.6%).

The post A2 Milk share price on watch amid double-digit sales and profit growth appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Why A2 Milk, Piedmont Lithium, QBE, and Super Retail shares are racing higher
• Should I pour in and buy A2 Milk shares before the ASX 200 company reports on Monday?
• The A2 Milk share price has lagged the ASX 200 in 2023. Time to pour in?

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended A2 Milk. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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Investors are told all the time to buy ASX shares with a long horizon. Think long term, ignore short term fluctuations in the market.

But so much of the published stock tipping advice is designed for shorter timeframes.

This could be because professional investors are forced to chop and change more frequently. Performance of their portfolios are scrutinised on a monthly, quarterly and yearly basis.

They have to avoid a potentially career-killing period of underperformance. They can’t afford patience.

Just occasionally these professional fund managers reveal their honest thoughts about what the best long-term investments could be.

These are the stocks that one could just hold onto for years, even if they have a bad month, quarter or year.

The team at Firetrail, in a memo titled Three themes that will shape the coming decade, did exactly this earlier this month.

In the document they laid out what they thought were the best opportunities not over the next year, but the next decade.

The Firetrail analysts identified three themes that they thought would have “vast, long-term impacts on economies”: deglobalisation, decarbonisation and “de-dollarisation”.

Some other professional investors would call these structural growth drivers.

According to the Firetrail team, these forces would be the “major drivers of stock market performance over the coming decade”.

Deglobalisation: energy security over cost

Globalisation was the pre-eminent force in the international economy over the past few decades. The movement of goods, capital and even services across national borders became more and more unimpeded, raising the standard of living for its participants.

But something odd started happening just before COVID-19 struck the planet.

“The deglobalisation trend started to emerge in 2019 with the US-China trade war,” read the Firetrail memo.

“The trend has continued ever since. Australia has had its own trade war with China, and the Russia-Ukraine war has highlighted the risks inherent with concentrated supply chains.”

Firetrail analysts believe over the next decade both governments and the private sector will “prioritise supply chain security over cost”. Businesses operating in “friendly” countries with political and legal stability would dominate.

Australia, as a stable democratic state, would reap the benefits.

“Australia also has the resources that the world needs. Not just iron and coal — but also uranium, gas and decarbonisation metals.”

The Firetrail team, as an example of a beneficiary of this theme, named Santos Ltd (ASX: STO).

“An Australian natural gas and LNG producer, [Santos] is well positioned to benefit from higher energy prices as a result of increased global demand for energy security and lack of investment in traditional energy projects.”

Decarbonisation: battery materials

The majority of the world is now making efforts to reduce carbon emissions.

The Firetrail team reckons Australia will again be “a major player” in this transition to net-zero.

And again our mining and resources companies will be the winners.

“While it would be fantastic to switch from fossil fuels to renewables today, technology and infrastructure still has some way to go… In the future, uranium and hydrogen could provide the world with near-zero emissions baseload energy.

“Under all scenarios, Australia is a winner. Australia has significant stores of coal, gas, and uranium, and is developing clean hydrogen technology.”

To store cleanly generated energy, the world will also rely on powerful batteries.

“To make batteries, we need lithium, rare earths, nickel, cobalt and copper,” read the memo.

“We hold Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: LYC) in our Australian portfolios. Lynas is the world’s only rare earths producer of scale outside China and a key beneficiary of increased demand for energy security and battery minerals.”

‘De-dollarisation’: a golden comeback 

The last theme, which the Firetrail team named “de-dollarisation”, is the global movement away from using US dollars as the reserve currency.

“Since 2020, US money supply has increased by over 40%, budget deficits are running at over a trillion dollars, and national debt is at elevated levels,” read the memo.

“The result is higher inflation in the US, putting pressure on the US dollar’s reserve currency status.”

So will the world see another currency emerge as the standard for international trade?

“Our view is no. However, we can see a world in which a group of three or four currencies share dominance. These would include the US dollar, the Euro, and the Chinese Yuan.”

So how does this affect investors? If multiple currencies start changing hands, the world still needs a reserve base.

“We believe gold can play that role,” the Firetrail memo read.

“Gold was the world’s reserve currency for 5,000 years. It was only usurped by the US dollar 40 years ago following the breakdown of the gold standard.”

The resurgence of importance in gold will mean a windfall for producers of the precious metal.

“A greater role in world finance will put upward pressure on the gold price to the benefit [of] low cost, long life gold miners such as Newcrest Mining Ltd (ASX: NCM).”

The post Here are the best ASX shares to buy for the coming decade: Firetrail appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday
• Santos share price edges lower amid allegations of disastrous deception
• ‘Attractive opportunities’: Fund reveals why 2 ASX 200 shares are its biggest holdings
• 3 ASX 200 shares Firetrail Small Companies fund is overweight in right now
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday

Motley Fool contributor Tony Yoo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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On Friday, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) finished the week on a disappointing note. The benchmark index fell 0.9% to 7,346.8 points.

Will the market be able to bounce back from this on Monday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 futures largely flat

The Australian share market looks set to have a subdued session on Monday following another mixed finish to the week on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day a single point lower this morning. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones was up 0.4% but the S&P 500 fell 0.3% and the NASDAQ dropped 0.6%.

Oil prices tumble

ASX 200 energy shares including Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) could have a tough start to the week after oil prices tumbled on Friday. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price was down 2.7% to US$76.34 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price fell 2.5% to US$83.00 a barrel. This was driven by concerns that interest rate hikes could weigh on demand and comes at a time of mounting signs of ample crude and fuel supply.

A2 Milk half year results

The A2 Milk Company Ltd (ASX: A2M) share price will be one to watch on Monday when the infant formula company releases its highly anticipated half year results. According to CommSec, the market is expecting the company to return to form in FY 2023 and report a first half net profit after tax of NZ$60.6 million. No dividend is expected to be paid, but A2 Milk is sitting on a huge cash balance, so it cannot be ruled out.

Bendigo and Adelaide Bank results

The Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Ltd (ASX: BEN) share price will be one to watch closely. This morning, the regional bank is scheduled to release its half year results. According to a note out Goldman Sachs, its analysts expect cash earnings growth of 7.9% to $281.3 million. This will be ahead of consensus estimate of $275.2 million. The broker also expects an interim 32 cents per share dividend, compared to the consensus estimate of 29 cents per share.

Gold price softens

Gold miners Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) could have a subdued start to the week after the gold price softened on Friday night. According to CNBC, the spot gold price edged a fraction lower to $1,851.30 per ounce. This led to the precious metal recording its third weekly decline in a row.

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy now
• Why A2 Milk, Piedmont Lithium, QBE, and Super Retail shares are racing higher
• Santos share price edges lower amid allegations of disastrous deception
• Should I pour in and buy A2 Milk shares before the ASX 200 company reports on Monday?

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Bendigo And Adelaide Bank. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended A2 Milk. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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